Orlok Tsubodai

Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

963 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Oh yeah guys I'm just going to totally just vote when I haven't really been in captivity or anything and like, I've had time to actually be active here and know what the hell im voting for?! 

Ah storms sorry for the attitude... really crappy day

They point is if that everybody casts a vote- any vote, even if it's a throwaway vote on a random player- it's still helpful because it gives our emotional allomancers a chance to search for people being smoked by a coppercloud. That's how Jondesu was found and killed. 

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Arinian. Ecthelion.

Unlike Lopen, I don't think Ecth is cleared. See, I went back and looked at his Snapped Thug claim. It's far too vague. Given that Night 4 is right in the middle of cycle 4, does 'last cycle' mean Night 2 (in which he would've found out he snapped on Day 3) or Night 3 (in which he would've found out on Day 4)? 'Last cycle' seems to be a brilliant way to make people say "Oh, he snapped, and he wouldn't be claiming that if he hadn't because someone could easily dispute that." But the Snapped of Night 2 is probably going to read 'last cycle' and think "So he's the Night 3 Snapped. Awesome." And then Night 3 Snapped is going to read 'last cycle' and think the exact opposite. (This assumes that the second convert wasn't the Night 2 Snapped; if the second convert did snap Night 2, then they'd know there's not going to be any issues with claims). Ecth, which night exactly did you allegedly snap?

Additionally, Jon's post at the start of the night seems like a prompt. A way for a teammate to help another teammate dispel some of the suspicion around them. Given that Jon would've certainly been evil by this time, I can't help but wonder if that's exactly what it is.

I think Ecth is the Inquisitor. I'd soothe him this cycle, but honestly, I don't think he's smoked, since he's unlikely to be Seeked. The Seeker would probably believe his Snapped Thug claim, at least enough to scan other, better, targets first. And it would be better to leave him open to vote manipulation, because if a vote manip failed on him, people would wonder why a near-certain cleared player was smoked offensively when there was so little chance of him being seeked. Why not offensively smoke someone else?

Oh, and the kill on Meta makes sense this way too, since they couldn't kill Kipper because the only other person to have survived a lynch other than Kipper was Ecth, and Kipper's death would put unnecessary attention back on Ecth. But killing Meta gets them a Pewter spike as well (which is a good thing to have) and gives no information at the same time. Not an act of desperation at all.

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I was the Night 3/Day 4 Snapped.

I'm sorry if saying "I snapped last cycle" on Night 4 was too vague.

Edited by Ecthelion III
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Follow-up question: why did you retract your vote from Rand? That vote retraction is what put you in the lead and got you lynched. Had you left it, it would've been a tie, and nothing would've happened.

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One issue I have with the Ecth suspicion is that Jondesu voted on Ecth D4. From my point of view it doesn't really make any sense for the inquisitor to sacrifice a life that way, when maintaining his vote, or having his converted minion switch votes would have resulted in a village lynch(of course, if you assume I'm the other convert, it would make a lot more sense).

That having been said, claiming to be a snapped thug would have been a very safe claim for the inquisitor to make, if he knew he hadn't converted any thugs, and people saying that Ecthelion wouldn't make such a bold lie should read chapter eight of LG30 (if you don't have the time, Ecth claimed a scanning role, which was true, and claimed Lopen had scanned as evil, which was false).

It could be argued that Meta being killed instead of Ecth could also mean that Elim!Kipper wanted to use Ecth as a method of switching the lynch away from him. However, in that case I'd have expected someone who hasn't been soft-cleared to have gone after Ecth before now.

On the matter of people having been soft-cleared:

12 hours ago, Kipper said:

Well, I'm not entirely ready to let Hero off the hook for this absurd tunneling.

We've been over this multiple times, but what motivation would the Spiked have to kill me? They already have a guaranteed conversion with Meta's rotting carcass. They would only gain a conversion from me, but they would lose the distraction of the discussion/suspicion around me. That discussion/suspicion is fairly dominant in the thread right now. Even if I by some miracle survive until the late game, I'll have suspicion attached to me that the Eliminators can use to their advantage.

Again - the village has no verifiable reason to trust Hero. But Hero is trying to make things out as if he's confirmed village.

People consider Hero soft-cleared because of the supposed attack on him last Night. GM clarification matches his claim of being a self-protecting lurcher, and no one has come forward to dispute it directly. It could have been a WGG of some sort, I suppose, but I don't think that's very likely at this point.

I'll make sure to put a vote up. I'm currently considering voting on Ecth, but i'd like to see his response to Wilson's second question first.

Edited by randuir
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I'm feeling pretty sick right now, so I'm not going to be able to contribute much. Hopefully this weekend will give me some time to catch up on this.

I will vote on Elenion if people want to try emotional allomancy on me.

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@little wilson makes a fair point.

Ecthelion

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It's getting late in the cycle, and I'm going to be busy for a while, possibly till after turnover, so Ecthelion. I'll try to check the thread before turnover in case of big developments, but I can't make any promises.

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I'm going to retract Hero, and vote Ecthelion instead. I want to live, thanks.

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Let's take a step back from the assumption that Hero was targeted specifically for his role. If we look at the kill as random, most of the points against Kipper go away. So there is a chance that Kipper ising the being of innocent

But, I'm not convinced about the Ecth lynch: I don't think he was purposely trying to be misleading about his claim. The Snapped players could have contacted Hero and he could have acted as an intermediary to disclose Snapping times to the thread, so it would have been an unwise gambit to use. And this sudden witch-hunt on Ecth doesn't get a good read from my gut.

With my vote leaving Kipper but not landing on Ecth, I need to put my vote somewhere else. Araris, stop tunneling on me.

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This turn is now over.

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LG32: Night Six - Aftermath

Dear ___________

Congratulations on finding one of the Spiked! I knew you all had it in you, even though it did take a fair while for anyone to actually do it. Surely killing someone isn’t that hard? I never struggle with it, at least. Well, must get easier with experience then. Oh! I nearly forgot about your weird lynches though! I must say, I do admire the speed at which you all decided that the best thing to do in this test was to lynch people, even though I never said a thing about it. 

Speaking of, I must also congratulate you on killing Ecthelion III! He sure was evil and everything, what with those innocent eyes.

Sincerely,
The Court Fool

Ecthelion III has died! He was a Village Pewterarm.

Vote count

Iamspartacus: Yitzi2 (1)
Kipper: Ecthelion III, Herowannabe (2)
OmeGaster: TheMightyLopen (1)
Bugsy: Arraenae (1)
Ecthelion III: little wilson, OmeGaster, Randuir, Kipper (4)
Elenion: Elenion (1)

Player List
1. Arinian - Alrin
2. Hemalurgic Headshot - Quinn
3. Jondesu - Remart - Spiked Coppercloud
4. Elenion - Roger Elariel
5. Drake Marshall - Serray - Regular Crewmember
6. Darkness Ascendant - The Phantom Stranger
7. Randuir - Magister Agemtsar
8. Magestar - David Agemtsar
9. Herowannabe - Herwynbe
10. Yitzi2 - Garshin
11. Metacognition - Village Pewterarm
12. Silverblade5 - Ryth
13: Arraenae - Rhea
14. TheMightyLopen - Sidon
15. little wilson - Willie Klara
16. Droughtbringer - You  - Regular Crewmember
17. Iamspartacus - Astrid the Bold
18. Ornstein - Winkleton - Regular Crewmember
19. Araris Valerian - Wol
20. Dalinar Kholin - Lebochevkowski - Village Coppercloud
21. OmeGaster - Rieyun
22. Kipper - Elenion - Pewterarm
23. Sart - Gaetan - Regular Crewmember
24. Bugsy - Jelwynd
25. Figberts - Quond
26. Mark IV - The Follower
27. Manukos - Reval
28. Aonar Faileas - Vana Izenry
29. Ecthelion - Amnar - Village Pewterarm
30. Amanuensis - Mykal - Village Smoker

Edited by OrlokTsubodai
Corrected vote tally
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Someone Rioted me onto myself, and Araris' vote on me is gone. Everything else looks okay, but ising the being of on mobile right now so it's a pain to go back and check.

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Darn, these rollovers are at the worst time! I was so caught up in homework that I didn't come in and cast a vote. Well Ecth, at least it wasn't a D1 lynch, right?:P

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Well, darn. Me and Wilson were discussing Ecth possibly being the Inquisitor, but we were wrong. Sorry about that Ecth(or not, revenge for LG30! jk :P).

So, Len and Araris' votes were messed with this Cycle. I'm not sure if that really clears them of anything, since we have no idea whether the other convert was successfully turned into another Smoker. I suppose it makes them a little less likely to be the Inquisitor though, since Jon may have been covering the Inquisitor? Not sure. And of course, paranoid theory that Len is the Inquisitor and used his Uber-zinc to move his own vote to himself even though he was Smoked just to prove he wasn't Smoked, this is assuming the Inquisitor can pierce Copperclouds with his manipulation and it doesn't Soothe their vote. :ph34r: (I'm kidding :P)

Praise the Ja!

Edited by TheMightyLopen
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@little wilson, I assume Araris was your soothing?

Anyway, it is interesting that this seems to be only the second time the rioter has used his powers. @OrlokTsubodai, @STINK, can a rioter turn a vote into a no-vote, making it look like someone was soothed?

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@randuir Actually, no. What would you say if I said I soothed you? Or attempted to, anyway....

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15 minutes ago, little wilson said:

@randuir Actually, no. What would you say if I said I soothed you? Or attempted to, anyway....

Then I'd say the coinshot is about to knock out his third villager.

Edit: If what Wilson said is correct, then both copper spikes took correctly, as I doubt Jondesu's coppercloud would have persisted after death.

Edited by randuir
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Hey Kip, is there a reason you cared so much about your survival? From what I can tell, you haven't exactly been contributing to the village much, so prioritizing your survival over the information we could gain from your lynch when you're not doing much doesn't really make much sense. (Referring to your vote switch on to Ecth, which would have forced a tie prior to Rand's vote.)

Would have commented on this earlier, but I didn't even see it until a few hours after the rollover, and yesterday was a busy night.

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3 minutes ago, randuir said:

Then I'd say the coinshot is about to knock out his third villager.

I'm far less certain that you're a villager though. You've done a number of suspicious things. First, there's your reads being all neutral when there were only a couple evils, which means that the vast majority of players were village, and yet you had surprisingly few village leans and very little paranoia. I know you said that you're always this reasonable, but from what I've heard, this level of reason is rather similar to LG30. Next up, we have your request to Rae to see if she knew the Seeker and could have me seeked, which makes me wonder if you were offensively smoking me to make me look suspicious and get the village paranoid about me. Then there's your quick response after Jon's death about how you'd wondered what happened to the vote manip which seemed a little too concerned, almost like a "Dang it, I knew we should've asked what she'd done! Now we're down one!" Your follow-up to my comment about the Meta-kill being an act of desperation was also a little off. And I rather think you voted alongside me for Ecth hoping that I wouldn't try to soothe you, for why would I try to soothe someone who's going along with the lynch that I want? (Side note: that actually did make me back-pedal a bit because I'd been fairly convinced that you and Ecth were teammates, and it was your suspicious behavior that made me more convinced that Ecth was the Inquisitor, so sorry @Ecthelion III. That was my bad. I got too caught up in my theory (which I'm still a little sad was wrong)). I went for that soothe anyway. And now this most recent question about the Araris soothe....you again seem a little too concerned about it, and a villager doesn't really have any reason to be concerned.

So, if you're a villager, I invite you to make your case. If it's convincing (Even when I'm 99.9% convinced someone is evil, I can still be persuaded to reconsider, and I have been persuaded to do so in the past), I'll request for the Coinshot to not go after you. Sound good?

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Alright then let's start. I'll probably do this in two parts, one now, and one about an hour before roll-over.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

I'm far less certain that you're a villager though. You've done a number of suspicious things. First, there's your reads being all neutral when there were only a couple evils, which means that the vast majority of players were village, and yet you had surprisingly few village leans and very little paranoia. I know you said that you're always this reasonable, but from what I've heard, this level of reason is rather similar to LG30.

I'd argue it's also similar to QF22, where I had 2/10 players(after analyzing all of them, not just a couple at a time) on my supsicion list in the early game. I think I didn't commit to any reads untill well into the late-game in LG30, though that was mostly because I was rather new in that game.

Quote

Next up, we have your request to Rae to see if she knew the Seeker and could have me seeked, which makes me wonder if you were offensively smoking me to make me look suspicious and get the village paranoid about me.

I'd asked her that because I'd started to worry Wilson was the inquisitor. The reasons for that where as follows:

  • Wilson had roleclaimed, which was risky, as it opened you up to getting attacked to facilitate a conversion. However, the role Wilson had claimed could possibly be emulated by some form of uber-emotional allomancy (for example, a variant of rioting that doesn't remove your own vote). Furthermore, Wilson wasn't attacked after that, even though She seems committed to trying to win this game through analysis after her intial commitment to take it easy.
    • This would also explain why the inquisitor gave up ubercopper. It would only get Wilson in trouble if she appeared to be role-less, while she'd claimed soother. It would be far easier to just have herself smoked, and claim someone was offensively smoking her if she got called on it.
  • Wilson had helped start the lynch on Drake, but then backed off at the end. This would allow her to claim innocence in that lynch (and no one who looked at that lynch afterwards bothered to analyze Wilson's posts, so it worked). An elim would have known drake was innocent, and would therefore have sought to distance themselves from the lynch once it was properly established to prevent any fallout from affecting you. Wilson even clearly indicated her other vote was a poke-vote to prevent people from following her lead.
  • Wilson had made a habit out of reminding everyone that she had practically been cleared, so that'd made me wonder why she continually felt the need to remind everyone of this. A villager probably wouldn't be living in constant fear of getting accused.
    • Furtehrmore, Wilson claimed the inqusitor would have to be someone with little experience because of his/her actions, which again struck me as neatly serving the double purpose of making ti look like she was trying to find the inquisitor, while swivelling the spotlight away from herself.

Now, just for the record, After Jondesu's death I no longer think Wilson is an Elim.

Quote

Then there's your quick response after Jon's death about how you'd wondered what happened to the vote manip which seemed a little too concerned, almost like a "Dang it, I knew we should've asked what she'd done! Now we're down one!"

If I'd been concerned or worried,why would I make a point of talking about it in thread? I don't have a pattern of regularly posting shortly after turnover (as that occurs at 00:00 AM for me, so shortly before bed-time), so there was no reason for me to force myself to post something. This was in fact just a genuine 'Hey, wait a minute. Nicely done Wilson.' moment for me, as I recognized you hadn't indicated your target for soothing, unlike previous days.

I'll get to the rest in a couple of hours.

Edited by randuir
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1 hour ago, randuir said:
  •  She seems committed to trying to win this game through analysis after her intial commitment to take it easy.

I would argue that I am taking it easy. See, old Wilson used to take notes on every player and offer up analysis based on those notes. She'd spend hours and hours every day keeping up with the thread and her notes and writing super long posts going into detail about whatever. I'm not doing that (at least not to the degree and consistency that I used to). When I've done player analysis in this game, it's been predominantly light. The actual analysis I've been doing is based on actions, because that's the aspect of game analysis that really fascinates me. Using the information I have and piecing things together in a way that makes sense. I love that. I've only been skimming the thread for the most part, but if I notice or remember something that was said that matches up with my action analysis, I'll follow-up on it.

To add to this, when I vote manipulated Jon, I wasn't suspicious of him. I actually chose to vote manipulate him when the votes were significantly closer because I didn't think he would be smoked and I wanted the manipulation to go through. When Kipper pulled way ahead, and I went to place my soothing order, I didn't see any reason to change that target. When the soothing failed, I went back and looked back at that misinterpretation of copperclouds that I vaguely remembered reading the night before. I'd read it initially on my way to my sister's after a concert (no, I wasn't driving), so I was fairly distracted and my initial reaction was "No, that's wrong, but I can see where you're coming from; let's correct that." Basically, I read it as innocent. Looking back on it with more information, I saw it for what it was: misdirection.

When I said I wanted to take it easy, I wasn't saying that I wanted to sign up for a game and not play it. That useless. I like playing. I just don't like spending hours and hours doing nothing but the game. I rather like having a social life. It's the burden of being an extrovert. :P
 

1 hour ago, randuir said:
  • Wilson had made a habit out of reminding everyone that she had practically been cleared, so that'd made me wonder why she continually felt the need to remind everyone of this. A villager probably wouldn't be living in constant fear of getting accused.

Not true. Jon tried to claim that I'd said that too. What I actually said was that I was cleared of being the first convert:

On 4/8/2017 at 9:26 AM, little wilson said:

I'm 99.9% certain Meta isn't the Inquisitor. He would never go seemingly inactive to throw off suspicion if he's evil, particularly given how infrequently he's been evil.

@ElenionI know a few people are going off the assumption there's Uber Brass/Zinc. I think either would be a good replacement for Uber Tin. And Uber Zinc that doesn't negate your own vote would be an easy addition. We don't have to worry about a Spiked Rioter right now though (at least not one that operates the same as normal Rioting) because the Inquisitor could only have smokers or regulars (if the spike didn't take) on the team thus far.

Unlike @Herowannabe, I'm only willing to write off those who've had their votes negated of being the first convert, who is almost certainly a smoker. We know the Inquisitor wasn't smoked last cycle though, because there was a kill and I believe the convert made that kill (which means they couldn't have included the Inquisitor in their cloud). Therefore, the Inquisitor could absolutely be in the group whose vote was negated.

Those who cannot be the first convert (aka the spiked smoker): Figberts, Wilson, Arinian, Kipper, Yitzi.

Based on vote manipulation alone, none of the above are cleared of being the Inquisitor or the second convert.

Link

Please read that last again. Also, I'd like to direct you to the post date. Saturday morning my time. Now, I don't know exactly when you made your request to have me seeked, but I'd wager my allomancy on it having been after this post.

So you say you were requesting to have me seeked because I was telling everyone I was clear, when in fact, I was doing the exact opposite. Jon, however, tried to indicate that I was trying to clear myself completely:

On 4/8/2017 at 9:38 AM, Jondesu said:

Convenient to include yourself in that group. :P I'm not quite sure about your conclusion that the first convert couldn't be in there, either, since even though they're probably a smoker (unless it didn't take), they might have smoked the Inquisitor that cycle, or maybe someone else.

I'm inclined to believe about Meta, and in fact, I'd become more suspicious if he comes back, since he could be a convert, though I'd be willing to give him at least a round or two in the name of encouraging activity.

I'm about to begin my analysis of possible converts (I think we're more likely to catch them than the Inquisitor at the moment, since there will have been more indication of that hopefully via voting patterns and actions that were taken or blocked).  No guarantees on when I'll pull it off, though, today might be a tough day.  Before I go to bed, though, I'll at least post whatever I do have.

Emphasis mine

Honestly, this makes me wonder if there was talk in the doc about twisting my words to make it seem like I was claiming I was cleared.

 

Let me remind you again of that last line:

On 4/8/2017 at 9:26 AM, little wilson said:

Based on vote manipulation alone, none of the above are cleared of being the Inquisitor or the second convert.

There's actually only one person thus far who's tried to claim that they're completely clear, and that's Hero.

Anyway. Moving on.  If anyone is curious how I conclude that those vote manipulated couldn't be the first convert but the Inquisitor could've been, here:

Cycle 1

  • Sart lynched (Regular)
  • Silverblade/Ecth negated; Lopen rioted
  • Aman coinshot (Smoker)

Cycle 2

  • Drought lynched (Regular)
  • No obvious vote manipulation
  • Dalinar coinshot (Smoker)
  • Conversion - Smoker spike with UBER STEEL
  • 1 Snapped

Cycle 3

  • Drake lynched (Regular)
  • Figberts/Wilson negated
  • Ornstein spike-killed (Regular)
  • Conversion - Smoker spike with UBER COPPER
  • 1 Snapped (Ecth)

Cycle 4

  • Ecth lynched/survived - claimed Snapped Thug
  • Arinian/Kipper/Yitzi negated
  • Meta coinshot/survived (Thug life lost)
  • Hero spike-attacked/survived (self-lurched)

Cycle 5

  • Kipper lynched/survived
  • No obvious vote manipulation (attempted on Jon)
  • Meta spike-killed (Thug)
  • Jon coinshot (Spiked Smoker)

Prior to Day 3, the Inquisitor was alone, with only Uber Copper, which cannot protect from vote manipulation. Their first convert joined them Day 3. Copper's default position starts as on. A Smoker has to request it be shut off during the night, which they couldn't have done the night they were converted because they didn't know they were being converted. Therefore, on Day 3, the Inquisitor was open to vote manipulation, but the first convert was most definitely not (assuming they were a Smoker, which I'm 95% confident about, given the sacrifice of Uber Copper the following night). Conclusion: Figberts and Wilson could not be the Smoker, but either could be the Inquisitor.

On Night 3, the Smoker killed Ornstein, which means they couldn't have smoked the Inquisitor because smoking another player is an active ability and requires you to place an order for that. They can't both kill and smoke. Therefore, on Day 4, the Inquisitor was once again open to vote manipulation, but the first convert was not (unless they shut off their cloud, which again, I think unlikely). Conclusion: Arinian, Kipper, and Yitzi could also not be the first convert, but any of them could be the Inquisitor.

On Night 4, there were two converts. One of them killed Meta and the other was able to use their smoking ability to smoke another player. Whether they smoked the Inquisitor or offensively smoked someone else, we don't know. Day 5 was the first day the Inquisitor might not have been open to vote manipulation (depends on if the Smoker smoked them or not). Ultimately, it doesn't matter, because no successful vote manipulation happened that day (I'm curious if the other Soother tried to vote manipulate and who they targeted).

Full Conclusion: based purely on vote manipulation analysis, it is impossible, unless you are assuming that the first convert shut off their coppercloud or that they weren't a Smoker in the first place, that Figberts, Wilson, Arinian, Kipper or Yitzi could be the first convert. However, any of them could be the Inquisitor or the second convert.

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Wilson, you don't have to defend yourself against those 'accusations'. I merely included them to explain my thought process for approaching someone I thought might have a contact with the seeker to ask for you to be scanned. As I said above, I don't think you're the inquisitor because I doubt you'd have sacrificed Jondesu like that.

You seem to be right in that you didn't claim your innocence as often as I thought you did, though, so apologies for that. In case it needs to be said, let me emphasize again, at this point I don't think Wilson is an elim. The only reason I included my earlier suspicions was to explain why I'd contacted arraenae.

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

 

Please read that last again. Also, I'd like to direct you to the post date. Saturday morning my time. Now, I don't know exactly when you made your request to have me seeked, but I'd wager my allomancy on it having been after this post.

Also, hey, I get to be a soother. @Arraenae should be able to confirm I'd send her that message about 7 hours before that post (my PM was 10:45 AM saturday for me, your post was 5:26 PM saturday).

Anyway, moving on to the rest of your initial post.

4 hours ago, little wilson said:

And I rather think you voted alongside me for Ecth hoping that I wouldn't try to soothe you, for why would I try to soothe someone who's going along with the lynch that I want?

Well, if my goal had been to avoid being soothed by you, I could have just abstained from voting, which is a far more certain method to not get soothed. Any questioning about that would have been far easier to get rid of than questions about why I'd been Smoked.

Quote

I went for that soothe anyway. And now this most recent question about the Araris soothe....you again seem a little too concerned about it, and a villager doesn't really have any reason to be concerned.

I don't really get why you think I sounded concerned. I asked for confirmation about that, so I could continue working out who could be considered cleared because they had powers.

Anyway, I'm going to go over my posts again to see if there's anything I said that could prove I'm village. If I do find something, I'll bring it up.

Edited by randuir
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That message was sent Saturday at 1:45 AM PDT, though I'm not sure if the Shard does Daylight Savings Time. My reply was Saturday 11:36 AM PDT.

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