Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

[DeTess]

I'm not quite a 100% yet, so I'm going to refrain from attempting any analysis (we all saw how that turned out in the second day of last cycle). However, there's a couple of things I'd like to comment on. First, the kill-messages from this cycle. If I had to take a guess, I'd say that the anonymous  player that was attacked had protection, while meta was a thug(or, potentially the inquisitor). The reasoning being that a thug needs to know he has been attacked, because they lose a life, while that isn't necessary for protection.

Second, meta's role. Meta has technically been online in time to put in a conversion order for last cycle, I think. This means that it is technically possible for Meta to be the inquisitor, but I don't think it's very likely. Furthermore, as long as he remains inactive, the converts are a bigger threat, so unless we reach a complete dead-end in our search for other suspects (or meta returns), I'd say we should let him be for now.

And that's it already. I'll try and post something more concrete tomorrow.

[little wilson]

I'm 99.9% certain Meta isn't the Inquisitor. He would never go seemingly inactive to throw off suspicion if he's evil, particularly given how infrequently he's been evil.

@ElenionI know a few people are going off the assumption there's Uber Brass/Zinc. I think either would be a good replacement for Uber Tin. And Uber Zinc that doesn't negate your own vote would be an easy addition. We don't have to worry about a Spiked Rioter right now though (at least not one that operates the same as normal Rioting) because the Inquisitor could only have smokers or regulars (if the spike didn't take) on the team thus far.

Unlike @Herowannabe, I'm only willing to write off those who've had their votes negated of being the first convert, who is almost certainly a smoker. We know the Inquisitor wasn't smoked last cycle though, because there was a kill and I believe the convert made that kill (which means they couldn't have included the Inquisitor in their cloud). Therefore, the Inquisitor could absolutely be in the group whose vote was negated.

Those who cannot be the first convert (aka the spiked smoker): Figberts, Wilson, Arinian, Kipper, Yitzi.

Based on vote manipulation alone, none of the above are cleared of being the Inquisitor or the second convert.

[Jondesu]

7 minutes ago, little wilson said:

Those who cannot be the first convert (aka the spiked smoker): Figberts, Wilson, Arinian, Kipper, Yitzi.

Convenient to include yourself in that group.  I'm not quite sure about your conclusion that the first convert couldn't be in there, either, since even though they're probably a smoker (unless it didn't take), they might have smoked the Inquisitor that cycle, or maybe someone else.

I'm inclined to believe about Meta, and in fact, I'd become more suspicious if he comes back, since he could be a convert, though I'd be willing to give him at least a round or two in the name of encouraging activity.

I'm about to begin my analysis of possible converts (I think we're more likely to catch them than the Inquisitor at the moment, since there will have been more indication of that hopefully via voting patterns and actions that were taken or blocked).  No guarantees on when I'll pull it off, though, today might be a tough day.  Before I go to bed, though, I'll at least post whatever I do have.

[Aonar]

26 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Convenient to include yourself in that group.  I'm not quite sure about your conclusion that the first convert couldn't be in there, either, since even though they're probably a smoker (unless it didn't take), they might have smoked the Inquisitor that cycle, or maybe someone else.

I'm inclined to believe about Meta, and in fact, I'd become more suspicious if he comes back, since he could be a convert, though I'd be willing to give him at least a round or two in the name of encouraging activity.

I'm about to begin my analysis of possible converts (I think we're more likely to catch them than the Inquisitor at the moment, since there will have been more indication of that hopefully via voting patterns and actions that were taken or blocked).  No guarantees on when I'll pull it off, though, today might be a tough day.  Before I go to bed, though, I'll at least post whatever I do have.

When Copper is active, the effect always applies to the Coppercloud, the only optional part is whether or not, and who else it applies to. And since the Inquisitor dropped Ubercopper, it can be assumed with reasonable certainty the first Copper spike took. 

Now, it could be possible the Inquisitor made some suboptimal moves to intentionally throw us off, but it seems unlikely, so Wilson's logic stands. (Now, it is possible though I believe for at least some of the people on that list to be the Inquisitor, if not the first Convert, but I haven't gone all the way through the logic there.) 

[Jondesu]

 

Just now, Aonar Faileas said:

When Copper is active, the effect always applies to the Coppercloud, the only optional part is whether or not, and who else it applies to. And since the Inquisitor dropped Ubercopper, it can be assumed with reasonable certainty the first Copper spike took. 

Hmm, I wasn't aware of that.  I've only ever played roles where you could affect others or yourself, but they didn't affect both.  Is that from the LG2 rules?  If so, I think I missed it.

[Aonar]

That's how it's been in LGs 1,2,3,7 and several others with a Smoker-type role, and all three of the AGs.  

[Jondesu]

1 minute ago, Aonar Faileas said:

That's how it's been in LGs 1,2,3,7 and several others with a Smoker-type role, and all three of the AGs.  

Thanks.  I was in AG3, but the others were all long before I joined, and I was a Thug in AG3, so my role was completely passive.  Either I didn't know that or I forgot about the way the Smoker role worked, can't recall at the moment.

I'm actually a good way through my analysis post here, so I'll hopefully have it up soon.

[Herowannabe]

1 hour ago, little wilson said:

Unlike @Herowannabe, I'm only willing to write off those who've had their votes negated of being the first convert, who is almost certainly a smoker. We know the Inquisitor wasn't smoked last cycle though, because there was a kill and I believe the convert made that kill (which means they couldn't have included the Inquisitor in their cloud). Therefore, the Inquisitor could absolutely be in the group whose vote was negated.

 

Good point, though it took me a minute to figure out your reasoning. Makes sense now. Thanks. 

[Jondesu]

Okay, so I'm looking over my previous analysis, and while I covered those I was most suspicious of at the time (and I'm including here my updated analysis on them), I also had mostly ignored Aonar and Rae, who also met my criteria when it came to the voting patterns. This got longer than expected, so I'm spoilering the big parts of each one, and just leaning the main conclusion out in the open.

Aonar:

Spoiler

Meets the very definition of a Lurker.  He's posted only once for each of the first two cycles, and in each one, he basically dared us to vote him out. He claims that this is normal behavior for him, and indeed, I do remember him lurking in at least one other game (I don't recall how many I've played with him), but I don't remember him making a statement like that. Had a vote or two on him, at least one of which was retracted (I'm not analyzing exactly who voted at that point, since it's unimportant the first couple rounds I think). D3, though, his activity picks up, he starts commenting on the rules more (though he'd already posted once about that previously), and expresses some vague suspicions, not gut reads but instead based on non-existent information (claims he's going to provide it later, and doesn't). Then, he goes back to inactivity. He posted once this cycle now (after I started writing this up, though long before I'm actually posting it) with another rule clarification on Copper, which is interesting since as the convert, he would probably have it, so would make sure he was familiar with it. 

Very suspicious of Aonar as the first convert. 

Rae:

Spoiler

Totally random poke vote on a new player D1, but we've covered that and I don't think it's alignment-indicative. Posted as well to defend herself about that and do some musing about who would have been picked to be the Inquisitor (recalling Mage as the only Elim in LG31). She ended up retracting that and not casting another vote, but overall still reading village to me at that point. N1, she posted a comparison of the pre- and post-manip vote tallies, which is not alignment-indicative either, and asked a question about Soothing, I assume to help her understand the manips that took place. She also did some RP, which I applaud, even though it's a dying art in this game (no pun intended). D2, she was suspicious of Drake and asked a somewhat pointed question, but seemed satisfied and voted on Yitzi instead for hard to follow logic (not on her part, that was the reason she gave for voting on Yitzi). Retracted that vote because she was called out for it being poor logic in itself to assume that poor logic indicated who was the Inquisitor.  (How's that for confusing!). Did not end up placing a new vote again.  Sensing a pattern, which leads me to believe she was still village D2. D3, commented on the Tineye messages and how there was an extra, and also claimed Meta was clear as the Inquisitor because of when he last logged in.  Several of us have agreed with Meta being clear for other reasons since then, so that's not suspicious. Voted for Drake as part of the bandwagon, but with her own reasoning, so didn't just jump in blindly. N3, she confirmed Wilson's claim to be Soother. Mostly inactive D4, but she said she would be. N4, expressed some mild distrust of Bugsy.

 Village read all along, not a likely convert. She tends to attract suspicion anyways, so I probably wouldn't convert her if I had been the Inquisitor.

Back to the others:

Ecth:

Spoiler

Took a little while to join in D1, and then didn't participate much beyond an initially unsupported vote on Mark, followed up by his actual reasoning once Mark called him on it. Reading village at that point to me, just one who didn't get into the thread until we'd already posted a cremload of information, so I can't blame him.  I don't really suspect him of being the Inquisitor anymore, due to this re-analysis. Aman felt the same way, and while confirmed good doesn't mean confirmed right, I agree in this case. The N1 vote tally seems to suggest he may have been the Rioter, but he claims to have instead just been Soothed. Wilson (confirmed Soother) backs that up later on D3. Gained some suspicion N1 and D2 from Len and Drake primarily, but was defended by several other players.  Basically lurked D2 despite that, after some initial responses.  Still reading village at that point. D3, I put him on my list of suspicions for the first time, but this re-analysis is making me doubt the likelihood of him having been the Inquisitor.  I voted for him D4, but then withdrew it, which was mostly gut and due to his defense, rather than rethinking my original suspicion more.

Since there hasn't been a conversion since D4, leaning village for now, unlikely to be converted.

Lopen:

Spoiler

Was somewhat in favor of a D1 lynch, and in fact posted quite a bit D1 including a vote on Drake early on. Retracted that vote at the very last minute. He also asked a bit about the Uber powers the Inquisitor had (which was a hot topic about that time), which could have been good cover and let him either get another perspective on answers about that in his GM PM if he is the Inquisitor, or even just avoid asking there. Not super convinced he's the Inquisitor, but he's a decent candidate for now. His vote was rioted D1 as well, by persons unknown (Drake was suspected of being the Rioter, but that hasn't been confirmed to my knowledge). Not particularly active N1, but that's not a big deal either way. D2, he posts about activity levels trying to use that to gain information, and comments that he didn't learn anything from it. Noted that he has attacked Aman N1 when he was an Elim before, but claims he didn't this time, and throws some mild suspicion on Randuir after Drake says he's being helpful. D2, says he's suspicious of me, along with Meta, Randuir, and Aonar. Voted on Drought initially instead, though, since he was inactive. Seems odd to have "top suspects" but vote for someone else, but not necessarily suspicious. He did then switch his vote to Spartacus, a true inactive (who hasn't been in the game at all yet), and left it even after the bandwagon on Drought formed. Could have been an easy way to avoid getting suspicion based on who he voted for, since there are plenty of people in favor of the Crusade, and combined with his negated vote D1, is certainly attracting more suspicion from me as I read this.  D3, voted on Aonar right away, then retracts it immediately after Aonar posts (if Aonar was indeed the first convert, that could have been intentional). Moves his vote to Bugsy for unstated reasons (gut read, he claims later). Wilson notes that Lopen knew her role, which the fact that Wilson is still alive means that's a point in his favor, but I don't think I would have killed Wilson at that point either, were I the Inquisitor, since it would only cast suspicion on those who did know she was the Soother. Randuir lists him as a Neutral read, while DA lists him as a Strong Village read. Posts his "list" of gut reads, which is fairly long. D4, he suggests the plan to have everyone vote so the Soothers and Rioters can find Smokers.  That could very easily just reveal those roles to the Inquisitor too, and at this point I don't anticipate faulty logic from him. Says he suspects Hero, Rand, Rae, and Len (funny how three of those are on my list now). During the night, asks for anyone who claims to have Snapped to reveal themselves to see if Ecth is lying, which is a neutral action anyone would have done (he just did it first).

Leaning towards Inquisitor.

Randuir:

Spoiler

D1, talked about the need for the lynch despite the higher probability of a mislynch, to gain information.  Called out Wilson's logic somewhat (after others had done so), but didn't feel her logic was suspicious, just incorrect. Pointed out that Thugs claiming would only cost them and the village the advantage of soaking up a hit, which is a point in his favor, but could just be an attempt to gain trust by criticizing a plan that others would have called out anyway (and already had, in fact). @Aonar Faileas, if I'd remembered Rand's D1 post about it, I'd have known that Smokers cover themselves and one other person, so oops and points to you.  Again, that's just a rule clarification that anyone could post, so not really alignment-indicative. Too many posts for me to cover in detail here, but basically a lot more of the same.  Voted on Silverblade because he didn't explain his read on Arinian. N2, questioned Drought's plan of having vanilla villagers reveal themselves (a bad plan in my opinion, but Drought was confirmed to be one of those vanilla villagers). Also some more plan discussion including debate on whether the Inquisitor would have maniped the vote on Sart, leaning towards them using a different action instead. D2, more of the same, and comments that he's going to spend time decoding the Tineye's message. Questions Yitzi's vote on Elenion since there was no real reason, and poke-votes Spartacus to try and get him to participate. Later moved his vote to Drought to break the tie, attempting to prevent vote manipulation I assume. We know now Drought was village, so this would have been a relatively easy vote for him to justify if he knew that, but an Elim!Randuir would be cautious about voting with no clear reasoning I expect, so this actually makes me lean back towards village. N2, he expresses suspicion of Hero, with a detailed post explaining it, but notes that it's not a strong suspicion.  I'm wary of those types of posts, so that makes me want to lean slightly Elim again.  Combined with the fact that I'm thinking his D2 posts indicate he was Village, though, and he wouldn't have been converted until D3 at the earliest if so, I don't place a lot of importance on that post. On D3, muses on why the Inquisitor/Elims would have killed Dalinar, but concludes it was probably just random. Could be covering for the actual logic, but I also don't see any real reason to target Dalinar specifically, so I'm inclined to agree and keep this at alignment-neutral. He starts posting a little less in D3, though still quite a bit, but considering the sheer quantity of his posts D1 and D2, I think it was just an unsustainable pace, although it reminds me a bit of LG30.  There weren't conversions in that game, though, so while he was Elim there, I don't think it indicates anything here.  I'll continue to be wary of him because of that game, but overall I get the impression that he's just being helpful and analytic, which is neutral for him. Says he has a gut read on Lopen, but that his gut reads on Lopen aren't very accurate, so…eh. Just like I said that day, I remain wary, but I don't see anything particularly suspicious that I'd call him out on. D4, votes on Spartacus for inactivity.  Gains a few votes on him (Lopen and Ecth back to back).  Lopen claims gut read, Ecth just says it's because of Lopen. Considering I'm leaning Inquisitor on Lopen, but village on Ecth, I don't know that that particular combo is all that indicative, but it does make me more suspicious of Lopen and less of Rand at that stage. Picked up more votes from Yitzi and Wilson, though Yitzi later retracts it and places their vote on Hero. Ecth also retracts his vote on Randuir, leaving him with 2 votes at the end of the cycle. 

Neutral read, leaning slightly village now.

Elenion:

Spoiler

His High Imperial CR makes it hard for me to really fully analyze some of his posts, which I'd say could be intentional, except it was picked before roles were assigned.  I still bet he did it to help him stay mysterious, but it doesn't mean anything about his alignment. He's chosen to translate some posts and not others (mostly based on how understandable he thinks they are), which could let him keep some things lower-profile, but he's a good enough player that he simply wouldn't post something in the thread that he thinks would make him suspicious. Asks some rule clarifications D1, which several people were doing, so neutral there. I had a gut read of him as possibly the Inquisitor, but it was totally gut read and not based on much in his posts, and I later retracted it for precisely that reason. Votes for Drought for lurking, a valid reason, though we know now Drought was village. N1, discusses the Rioting/Soothing of the votes from D1, which seems like solid analysis, but neutral on the intent. Rand notes that it was Elenion's advice in LG31 to have Rioters/Soothers announce their presence, and he was Elim there, but Len didn't actually suggest that this game, so I think that actually makes me lean slightly village at this stage. D2, attracts an early and unsubstantiated vote from Araris and then later one from Yitzi with similar lack of reasoning provided. Responds to it and defends himself reasonably. Yitzi retracts after a fair amount of very confusing non-reasoning.  Could indicate that Yitzi is Elim, btw, but it'd be an odd mistake for an Elim to make, especially since he couldn't have been going off the Elim doc (there wasn't a convert at that point), so I suspect it was just a new(-ish?) player making a mistake and not explaining it well. Len voted on Yitzi in retaliation/defense, but retracted it after also feeling it didn't make Yitzi that suspicious. Later follows my lead in voting for Drought for lurking, moves it to Spartacus later because of the tie in votes, then switches it back later after Rand points out that voting off a true inactive doesn't get us information (and that Spartacus really can't be the Inquisitor). N2, gets called out for bandwagoning (what else is new?), and also claims he would have taken Aman's challenge.  I'll note that many people would have claimed they would have taken it, even if they did kill Aman, so I take any statements about that with a huge grain of salt. I do kinda believe that he would have, though, which has made me lean village on him to start. D3, says he's going to try to work out who the Tineye is, and later posts quite a bit of code-breaking attempt. I lean towards him not being the Tineye at least, based on the way he was analyzing it, but it could have been a smokescreen. He gains a few votes, mostly because he was bandwagoning, and votes on Drake due to seemingly legitimate suspicions. I mention that he fits my criteria of voting patterns here, but that nothing else is specifically making him suspicious, and I think that still holds. One of the votes on him is also retracted, so he ends the day with just one vote on him. N3, discusses my mention of the possibility of him being an unlikely target for conversion by saying that he could easily be a good target for the same reason.  No real indication either way due to that, but he wouldn't have been converted between D3 and N3, so I don't think it was Elim!Len saying that. D4, he says he's going to be less active and that holds true, but other than that nothing looks to have really changed in his play style. N4, suggests Soothing and Scanning Ecth in the same turn to verify his claim of Snapping, which may be unnecessary, but is decent logic. He's continued to defend that logic somewhat today, so I think he was genuine, and hasn't been converted.

 Neutral read, leaning village for now, but may be converted later in the game.

All in all, Aonar and Lopen are my current top suspicions, and I'm more confident in my analysis of Aonar as a convert than of Lopen as the Inquisitor, so Aonar gets my vote at this time.

[Aonar]

Have to love it when your name gets brought up and it absolutely kills the discussion.  

Anyways. Eh. I post when it feels necessary to post something, or when I become a topic of discussion. I don't see a purpose in posting simply for it's own sake. I've been active enough in PMs, as a couple people can likely confirm. There is a reason for my username, and the fact that my original member title was Lurkspren.  I did share my suspicions, just not with the thread. Otherwise.... eh. Vote for me if you like, lynch me if you like. I'll be doing my own thing, and once I have something useful to contribute I will.

[Ecthelion III]

Aonar. A vote on you means we would appreciate it if you would share your suspicions with the thread.

[TheMightyLopen]

In response to Rand from last Day Cycle, I don't expect any sort of predictable behavior from the Inquisitor, so I've no idea if they'll be active during the Night or not. My point with that was I thought Drake would be thinking through things more if he was the Inquisitor, so he'd be less likely to mix up the Day/Night Turns.

Jondesu, I'm not the Inquisitor. Whew. That feels good to get off my chest.  I think it would be fair to say that I haven't been very helpful lately, so, sorry about that. I'll try and go over things tonight and get an actual post up with suspicions and everything. I don't really have a clue right now.

Praise the Ja.

[Aonar]

45 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Aonar. A vote on you means we would appreciate it if you would share your suspicions with the thread.

Nope, sorry. Maybe another time. Or maybe not. Or maybe if you asked more nicely.

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Nope, sorry. Maybe another time. Or maybe not. Or maybe if you asked more nicely.

Aonar, will you please share your suspicions and other relevant information, if not with the entire thread, at least with those who have been vetted by their votes being changed?

[Herowannabe]

Unfortunately I still feel miserable so this will not be the extensive post I wanted to make today. I'm just not up to it. Sorry.

Herwynbe staggered out of a side room, looking dirty and bedraggled and in need of a shave. He offered no explanation for his appearance, or what he had been up to the past few days, but instead pushed his way through the group and climbed up on top of a table. 

"Excuse me! Everyone, lend me your attention. I have decided that it is time for me to expose myself!" People gasped in shock as the Terrisman reached up to his robe with both hands, but they relaxed when he merely reached inside his robe and pulled out a small vial of metals. 

"I am a village lurcher!" He announced, then swallowed the contents of the vial. He reached out his hand and silverware leaped up from the table and he caught it. "Last night, the Inquisitor and its minions tried to assassinate me, but through deft use of my powers I was able to elude them. I do not know who it was that attacked me, but I have reason to believe it may have been Kipper or Aonar, or perhaps Wilson.

"To whoever among us is the Inquisitor, allow me to say, I have no need to issue any challenges to you, as did Aman and our esteemed Tineye. I have proven that you cannot kill me, and I do not have it within my powers to kill you, so any sort of contest between us will inevitably end in a draw. Rather, we will let our honored companions choose for themselves which of us is to survive and which is to be laid to rest in the crypt below. 

"Now, I realize that some of you may be wondering if this is all some sort of clever ruse on my part, if perhaps I am actually the Inquisitor or one of his minions performing what was known in ancient times as a 'Wounded Gazelle Gambit.' I can assure you that nothing could be further from the truth. And to prove my claims, I will now disrobe and display my naked body openly for your thorough inspection, and you will see that my body remains un-pierced by metal of any sort."

Herwynbe began pulling his arms out of his sleeves as people recoiled in shock and disgust. People began crying out, their voices overlapping one another. 

"Stop him!"

"Somebody do something!"

"Grab him!"

"No way, you grab him!"

"Excuse me! Master Terrisman!"

The last was from Garshin. Herwynbe paused in his undressing, and Garshin hastened to continue. "Uh, we spoke earlier about your area of expertise. Mundanity, right? Well how about I show you some of my mundane practices?"

"Right now? I'm kind of in the mid-"

"Yes, right now. Definitely right now." Garshin said.

Herwynbe shrugged, then hopped off the table, one arm bare and the other still sleeved in his robe, and the sash fortunately still tied tightly around his waist. "Very well," he said graciously.  "Lead the way."

---

So yeah. Long story short, when an unnamed player was attacked and survived last night, I PMed Orlok and asked about it. After checking with STINK, he responded this morning and confirmed that the attack was prevented by my lurching. 

I debated all day what to do about it, but in the end I said to myself, "Screw it, the spiked already know my power, more or less, I might as well let everyone else know, too, and get my suspicions out in the open." 

@Kipper, @Aonar Faileas, and @little wilson have all had one on one PMs with me, which is why I suspect them the most (along with those people who didn't vote last cycle, but I haven't had a chance- or the brainpower- to go back and examine all the results).

Mostly I suspect Kipper because he contacted me claiming that someone told him I was claiming to be a seeker- which is false, I haven't made any role claims to anyone before this post. I led him on for a PM or two, but then eventually denied it and called him out for role-fishing. He denied that, claiming that someone really did make that claim to him, but he refused to say who. I told him to have the other person PM me, and that was the end of the conversation. That was a couple days ago. 

Kipper and I both talked to Aonar and Wilson separately about it, so they were aware of the conversation any my response. I think that one of the above is spiked and they and their fellow eliminators decided to kill me on the off chance I was bluffing. (I suppose it is possible that a rogue coinshot/mistborn with steel decided to attack me and the Spiked attacked Meta last cycle, but neither attack makes any sense so that seems pretty unlikely). 

And once again, I can assure you that this is not a WGG. If it were, it would be the stupidest WGG in all of SE history, because any trust I might potentially gain out of it goes right out the window the next time the Inquisitor converts somebody. In fact, I urge you to NOT trust me (or at least, no longer than for a cycle or two, until the next conversion happens). I can protect myself from getting killed but I can't protect myself from being converted, and if I did gain any sort of trust following I would be a prime target for conversion. 

I would encourage seekers to scan me, but now that I've put myself out there I am also a prime target for offensive smoking, so that does no good. However, if someone wants to sooth me this cycle, that would at least prove that I'm not being smoked right now.

Edited April 9, 2017 by Herowannabe
minor formatting issues

[Elenion]

Okay, so we can account for both attacks now: Spiked attack on Hero (because he's a very unlikely Coinshot target) and Coinshot attack on Meta. Right now I'm definitely inclined to trust Hero, because so far our Inquisitor has shown us that they prefer to play on the safe side, and so wouldn't be likely to have themself or a convert pull a WGG.

However, I'm not going to follow Hero's vote on Kipper, because I'd rather put it on Aonar, for three reasons:

1. Aonar would be an excellent convert. He's experienced, he usually doesn't attract a whole lot of suspicion, and he tends to live very late into games.

2. Jon already picked up on suspicious things in Aonar's behavior. If you haven't read his analysis of Aonar yet, go do that.

3. Aonar had the information about Hero that made Hero seem like a Seeker. That information got to the elims somehow, and I'm betting Aonar was how.

But wait!--some skeptics might say--he's just deflecting suspicion from Kipper and Wilson by voting on Aonar! Well, if Aonar turns out village, guess who's next on my suspects list? Because I find it difficult to believe that Hero got attacked by chance not long after rumors of him being a Seeker were circulated to three different people.

So, ising the voting on Aonar, but ising for reasoning, not bandwagoning.

[Aonar]

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

Aonar, will you please share your suspicions and other relevant information, if not with the entire thread, at least with those who have been vetted by their votes being changed?

Already done, if I'm allowed to do that.  

39 minutes ago, Herowannabe said:

Unfortunately I still feel miserable so this will not be the extensive post I wanted to make today. I'm just not up to it. Sorry.

Herwynbe staggered out of a side room, looking dirty and bedraggled and in need of a shave. He offered no explanation for his appearance, or what he had been up to the past few days, but instead pushed his way through the group and climbed up on top of a table. 

"Excuse me! Everyone, lend me your attention. I have decided that it is time for me to expose myself!" People gasped in shock as the Terrisman reached up to his robe with both hands, but they relaxed when he merely reached inside his robe and pulled out a small vial of metals. 

"I am a village lurcher!" He announced, then swallowed the contents of the vial. He reached out his hand and silverware leaped up from the table and he caught it. "Last night, the Inquisitor and its minions tried to assassinate me, but through deft use of my powers I was able to elude them. I do not know who it was that attacked me, but I have reason to believe it may have been Kipper or Aonar, or perhaps Wilson.

"To whoever among us is the Inquisitor, allow me to say, I have no need to issue any challenges to you, as did Aman and our esteemed Tineye. I have proven that you cannot kill me, and I do not have it within my powers to kill you, so any sort of contest between us will inevitably end in a draw. Rather, we will let our honored companions choose for themselves which of us is to survive and which is to be laid to rest in the crypt below. 

"Now, I realize that some of you may be wondering if this is all some sort of clever ruse on my part, if perhaps I am actually the Inquisitor or one of his minions performing what was known in ancient times as a 'Wounded Gazelle Gambit.' I can assure you that nothing could be further from the truth. And to prove my claims, I will now disrobe and display my naked body openly for your thorough inspection, and you will see that my body remains un-pierced by metal of any sort."

Herwynbe began pulling his arms out of his sleeves as people recoiled in shock and disgust. People began crying out, their voices overlapping one another. 

"Stop him!"

"Somebody do something!"

"Grab him!"

"No way, you grab him!"

"Excuse me! Master Terrisman!"

The last was from Garshin. Herwynbe paused in his undressing, and Garshin hastened to continue. "Uh, we spoke earlier about your area of expertise. Mundanity, right? Well how about I show you some of my mundane practices?"

"Right now? I'm kind of in the mid-"

"Yes, right now. Definitely right now." Garshin said.

Herwynbe shrugged, then hopped off the table, one arm bare and the other still sleeved in his robe, and the sash fortunately still tied tightly around his waist. "Very well," he said graciously.  "Lead the way."

---

So yeah. Long story short, when an unnamed player was attacked and survived last night, I PMed Orlok and asked about it. After checking with STINK, he responded this morning and confirmed that the attack was prevented by my lurching. 

I debated all day what to do about it, but in the end I said to myself, "Screw it, the spiked already know my power, more or less, I might as well let everyone else know, too, and get my suspicions out in the open." 

@Kipper, @Aonar Faileas, and @little wilson have all had one on one PMs with me, which is why I suspect them the most (along with those people who didn't vote last cycle, but I haven't had a chance- or the brainpower- to go back and examine all the results).

Mostly I suspect Kipper because he contacted me claiming that someone told him I was claiming to be a seeker- which is false, I haven't made any role claims to anyone before this post. I led him on for a PM or two, but then eventually denied it and called him out for role-fishing. He denied that, claiming that someone really did make that claim to him, but he refused to say who. I told him to have the other person PM me, and that was the end of the conversation. That was a couple days ago. 

Kipper and I both talked to Aonar and Wilson separately about it, so they were aware of the conversation any my response. I think that one of the above is spiked and they and their fellow eliminators decided to kill me on the off chance I was bluffing. (I suppose it is possible that a rogue coinshot/mistborn with steel decided to attack me and the Spiked attacked Meta last cycle, but neither attack makes any sense so that seems pretty unlikely). 

And once again, I can assure you that this is not a WGG. If it were, it would be the stupidest WGG in all of SE history, because any trust I might potentially gain out of it goes right out the window the next time the Inquisitor converts somebody. In fact, I urge you to NOT trust me (or at least, no longer than for a cycle or two, until the next conversion happens). I can protect myself from getting killed but I can't protect myself from being converted, and if I did gain any sort of trust following I would be a prime target for conversion. 

I would encourage seekers to scan me, but now that I've put myself out there I am also a prime target for offensive smoking, so that does no good. However, if someone wants to sooth me this cycle, that would at least prove that I'm not being smoked right now.

No point trying to protect the identity of the player protected, since the only way you'd be confident enough of the Spiked already knowing your role would be to have protected yourself.  

I have reason to believe Wilson is not evil (although like anything with Wilson, there's always room for error) and for whatever strange reason, I have this gut feeling that that Aonar fellow is a villager as well, so Kipper.  Otherwise, not much to say. Well, no, that's not true. Just not much to say here. 

22 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Okay, so we can account for both attacks now: Spiked attack on Hero (because he's a very unlikely Coinshot target) and Coinshot attack on Meta. Right now I'm definitely inclined to trust Hero, because so far our Inquisitor has shown us that they prefer to play on the safe side, and so wouldn't be likely to have themself or a convert pull a WGG.

However, I'm not going to follow Hero's vote on Kipper, because I'd rather put it on Aonar, for three reasons:

1. Aonar would be an excellent convert. He's experienced, he usually doesn't attract a whole lot of suspicion, and he tends to live very late into games.

2. Jon already picked up on suspicious things in Aonar's behavior. If you haven't read his analysis of Aonar yet, go do that.

3. Aonar had the information about Hero that made Hero seem like a Seeker. That information got to the elims somehow, and I'm betting Aonar was how.

But wait!--some skeptics might say--he's just deflecting suspicion from Kipper and Wilson by voting on Aonar! Well, if Aonar turns out village, guess who's next on my suspects list? Because I find it difficult to believe that Hero got attacked by chance not long after rumors of him being a Seeker were circulated to three different people.

So, ising the voting on Aonar, but ising for reasoning, not bandwagoning.

Yay, I'm going to die! It's been a while since I've been properly lynched. I would join you in the bandwagon, but unfortunately I appear to have already used up my daily quota of coloured text.  First point is largely moot, since it applies to a number of players, both Kipper and Wilson included, to a degree. Can't be bothered to address the second point again, already have, more than once. As for the third, it is again ditto'd for Wilson and Kipper, and is therefore irrelevant. But it's not like any of that actually matters, right? 

Anyways, have fun killing me. (And no offence, but please don't show up to the funeral. I know you'll feel bad and want to pay respects and all, but.... )

[Herowannabe]

11 minutes ago, Aonar Faileas said:

No point trying to protect the identity of the player protected, since the only way you'd be confident enough of the Spiked already knowing your role would be to have protected yourself.  

I protected myself. I thought I made that abundantly clear. 

[Aonar]

3 minutes ago, Herowannabe said:

I protected myself. I thought I made that abundantly clear. 

Eh, I found it kinda vague, although I did only skim the RP bit (Too tired to read that many words.) so I figured I might as well, clarify, just in case anyone was confused.  

Edit: Read the post again, and yep, there it is. Sorry.  

Edited April 9, 2017 by Aonar Faileas

[little wilson]

Fascinating. I was wondering who'd been saved. As I said last cycle, I'd had a feeling one of my contacts had been converted (technically, I would fall into the group of potential second converts, but since I know I wasn't converted, I personally am looking at the others). Later in that cycle, I was reasonably certain Rae, Aonar and Hero were not likely to have been the convert, which narrowed it down to Lopen or Kipper. And between the two, particularly with the attack on Hero and the strangeness with the supposed seeker "claim", I'm more suspicious of Kipper.

Also, @Jondesu, yes I included myself in that group for the simple reason that my vote was negated on cycle 3. Copper had a default position of on. A smoker can shut it off at night, but on cycle 3, just after it took, the smoker wouldn't have had time to shut it off. I don't think they'll shut it off at all, but even if they do, they didn't then. Therefore, Figberts and I are the two players most guaranteed to not be the spiked smoker. Had someone else been soothed, I'd be saying that about them too. It has nothing to do with me. It's the facts. I'm not saying I couldn't be evil. I'm saying I couldn't be the first convert. None of those manipulated after the first conversion could be.

[TheMightyLopen]

Well, that all seems really odd. Considering Wilson can still Soothe(I think), there's no reason to suspect her right now.

On one hand, the attack on Hero does seem to imply someone involved there is Spiked, but on the other hand it seems strange that any one of them would try an attack on him since it sounds like all of that situation was known by multiple players. So attacking Hero would definitely draw attention to them, as it has. Maybe they thought it'd be worth it if he was actually a Seeker though. In which case it's probable that the Spiked is only a convert, since putting yourself in harms way this early in the game is not a smart move for the Inquisitor, even for the death of a Seeker.

Considering the lynch is likely going to be between one of Aonar and Kipper, I'll probably vote for one of them. Before I do though, I'd like to hear what Kipper has to say. This just seems very strange to me, so I'd like to wait and think things through and hopefully get more information before I vote.

For the Soothing/Rioting plan though, just to make myself available for that, Meta.

[DeTess]

The main vote seems to be between Aonar and Kipper. My thoughts on the two are bellow. This is in addition to what others have said, but I'll try not to repeat what has been said before.

Kipper has been going somewhat inactive. His last post was at the start of D4, and he's last been active on the forums last thursday. This doesn't exactly clear him, but to me it suggests he's probably not the inquisitor, as I'd expect the inquisitor to do his best to remain active.

Going through his posts, he had been opposing the D1 lynch. I believe it was Wilson who argued that the inquisitor would not do that because it wouldn't benefit him in any way, so that makes me lean towards Kipper not being the inquisitor. This leaves the possibility of him having been converted N2 or N3.

I don't really see anything indicating he has been converted N2. I don't really see any differences in how he was posting that day compared to the previous ones, but this is my first game with him, so maybe others can pick up on things. After N3, he has posted only once, in which he voted on HH, and voiced his disagreement regarding people making failsafes to prevent conversion. I might be wrong, but given Kippers insistent on logical actions, I don't really see why he'd post something like that the day he'd been converted.

@Herowannabe, could you tell me when Kipper asked if you where the seeker? Apologies if you already said this somewhere and I just missed it.

Anyway, on to Aonar. He's posted less content wise in the thread, and claims he's been doing a lot in PM's instead. Now, PM's are here to be used, and I can understand using them to talk some suspicions and ideas over before throwing them into the thread. However, by keeping all his ideas and suspicions confined to PM's Aonar makes it far harder for people to get a read on him. His insistence on this strategy makes me suspect he's trying to hide something.

So I'm voting on Aonar, for now.

Edit: Vote tally

Aonar(4): Jondesu, ecthelion, Elenion randuir

Kipper(3): Hero, Aonar, Wilson

Metacognition(1): Lopen

Edited April 9, 2017 by randuir

[Yitzi2]

You know, Herowannabe, your assumption that the attack was on you is based on you being the only lurcher, which may not be the case.  If not, then there's another lurcher around (and the elims already know that, if it wasn't you who was protected), and the elims need not be anyone who targeted you.

7 hours ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Already done, if I'm allowed to do that.

I don't see anything from you in my inbox.  Did you miss that I was soothed last cycle?

(Although, I realized that if the inquisitor has a version of zinc that does negate their own vote, it's not a perfect proof...but I think we decided that the most likely form of uber-zinc, if that's in play, is that it does not negate their own vote.)

Edited April 9, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Arinian]

I know that I'm not paying enough attention to this game sorry for that... but exams... exams killing me(I will try to find more time on this week... but I doubt in it).

Oh and let's kill Aonar he wants to be lynched, it's will be very bad if we will dissapoint him.

[Aonar]

2 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

I don't see anything from you in my inbox.  Did you miss that I was soothed last cycle?

(Although, I realized that if the inquisitor has a version of zinc that does negate their own vote, it's not a perfect proof...but I think we decided that the most likely form of uber-zinc, if that's in play, is that it does not negate their own vote.)

No I didn't. But just because I shared them with someone who was cleared doesn't mean I shared it with everyone. More than one person has been cleared in this way.  

4 hours ago, randuir said:

Anyway, on to Aonar. He's posted less content wise in the thread, and claims he's been doing a lot in PM's instead. Now, PM's are here to be used, and I can understand using them to talk some suspicions and ideas over before throwing them into the thread. However, by keeping all his ideas and suspicions confined to PM's Aonar makes it far harder for people to get a read on him. His insistence on this strategy makes me suspect he's trying to hide something.

So I'm voting on Aonar, for now.

Aonar(5): Jondesu, ecthelion, Elenion, randuir, Arinian

Kipper(3): Hero, Aonar, Wilson

Metacognition(1): Lopen

Just not big on the whole reading thing, I've afraid. Always found it kinda pointless, since it's not like anyone ever gets the right impression anyways.  If I'm forcing myself to be more honest and lest contrarian, in all honesty I've only been slightly more active in PMs than the thread. I have a mere five, only two of which are active, and only three of which have contained useful discussion. On the other hand, PM activity is SOP for me in games with unlimited PMs where I'm good, so maybe that's bad? I don't know. Do as you will. (Another vote!)

17 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I know that I'm not paying enough attention to this game sorry for that... but exams... exams killing me(I will try to find more time on this week... but I doubt in it).

Oh and let's kill Aonar he wants to be lynched, it's will be very bad if we will dissapoint him.

Yes, yes it would. My disappointment would be legendary, and you would all rue the day you decided not to lynch me.  Please carry on.