Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

[Orlok Tsubodai]

The cycle is now over.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

LG32: Night Four - Visitor Hour

Dear ________

I understand that it can be hard to try and reply to my letters, but I’m really getting worried about you now! You just up and leave for no reason, and then I find out that you’re at Fadrex without me? I hope you’re not involved in what I’ve been hearing about back in Luthadel, with whoever this ‘Court Fool’ really is. Just try and respond, alright? 

We miss you,

____________

----------------------------------

Dear _________

Hello again! I’m back, did ya miss me? I sure missed you, and I bet you had so much fun while I was gone! And would ya look at that, you gave me some new corpses! That’s so kind of you, but I’m gonna need a tiny bit more to get my quota! Anyway, I have to go track some people down, and I swear that those people are completely unrelated to the letters above, 100 percent.

See Your Corpse Soon,
The Court Killer

---

Ecthelion III was lynched, but survived!

Ecthelion III: Araris Valerian, Jondesu, Randuir (3)
Magestar: Elenion (1)
Metacognition: Hero (1)
Randuir: Lopen, Wilson (2)
Lopen: Magestar (1)
Kipper: Mark IV (1)

Edited April 7, 2017 by Alvron

[Jondesu]

Ooh, @Ecthelion III, you're a Thug? Or is there some other way to survive a lynch? I guess I see now why you didn't fight your lynch harder. You could be the Inquisitor, though, so I don't think I'm ready to let up on you just yet. Anything to add?

Edit: I'd like to pretend I'll do a lot more RP, but honestly, I'm not seeing much to work with and I'm not coming up with much, so I probably won't really do any more unless someone prompts me.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Jondesu

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

The turnover yet again snuck up on me...

It's interesting that Ecth survived. Like Jon said, Thug or Inquisitor? I want to RP, but I'm at dinner right now. Perhaps later.

[Herowannabe]

Interesting. Obviously Ecth is going to claim thug. If he is the Inquisitor it's not like he's going to come out and admit it. The question is, do we call on our Coinshot(s) to finish Ecth off for us? If Ecth is a thug, the Inquisitor will probably leave him alive so we'll be forced to deal with him, but maybe not if the Inquisitor wants a guaranteed misting to make a spike out of. 

Anyway, Wilson PMed me a couple hours ago and said she would be soothing Arinian. I haven't been following the thread closely enough to remember who he voted for, but unless he withdrew his vote and I missed it then the soothing worked on him. 

Also, it looks like @Yitzi2's vote on me was soothed, or she's a rioter. We're there any other vote manipulations?

and Yitzi, forgive my illness-addled brain, what was the question posed to me? I promise I'll answer. 

[Ecthelion III]

I was a Thug; I Snapped last cycle. I'm a villager, though I doubt you'd believe me.

@Herowannabe The way you're talking about me is so insensitive. "Do we call on our Coinshots to finish him off for us?" Guys, I'm right here.

[little wilson]

So far, the Inquisitor's Uber metals have followed exactly what they were in LG2, so I'm guessing Uber Pewter would be the same as well (Uber Tin is likely the only one that changed). The Inquisitor there could survive two attacks, so if Ecth is an actual Thug, he'll die if a single Coinshot attacks him. If he's the Inquisitor, he'll survive, but then he'd die to the lynch the following day, since he'd be down to a single life left.

For now, I'm willing to take him at his word, since claiming to have snapped on a night when only a single person snapped is risky. If anyone else claims, we know one of them is lying (this is actually how Cessie got caught in LG2). Ecth has claimed ballsier things though, so if anyone else snapped, please say something to someone in a PM so it'll get out into the thread.

Anyway. I was curious about vote manips so I looked at the votes.

Vote tally at end of day (pre-vote manip):
Ecth: Jondesu, Araris, Rand
HH: Kipper
Mage: Len
Meta: Hero
Rae: Arinian
Rand: Lopen, Wilson
Kipper: Mark
Hero: Yitzi

Vote tally in writeup:
Ecthelion III: Araris Valerian, Jondesu, Randuir (3)
Magestar: Elenion (1)
Metacognition: Hero (1)
Randuir: Lopen, Wilson (2)
Lopen: Magestar (1)
Kipper: Mark IV (1)

No one was rioted to anyone else (though a riot to a no-vote is possible), but we've got three vote negations: Arinian (which was me), Yitzi, and Kipper.

There are 24 players alive right now. We're batting at a 71% activity rate in terms of posts, and only 46% in terms of official votes. While that's not as bad as it could be, it could also certainly be better. I'm not going to ping those who didn't post, since Lopen already did that during the day, but it would really be nice to get more voting.

Rather than any Coinshot killing Ecth, I'd actually propose for Spartacus or Meta be taken out, since they're completely inactive. This would also be a good way to learn if we even have a Coinshot right now. There's a chance we don't.

[Arrae]

Bugsy:

C1: Explains how High Imperial works to me. Also says that for the next 10 days (from about March 25 to April 5), he'll be less active. RPs a bit. Gets on Len's case for knowing LG32 is a rerun of LG2 but not reading the rules for it, which seems kind of weird. Plenty of lazy players can play a game and not really know the rules, especially if it's only D1. I've done that myself. Bugsy responds to Aman and says that the Inquisitor is likely to try to post less frequently to try to fly under the radar.

Aside: I know that Aman started asking people about this first, but I find it kind of pointless to discuss what one thinks the Inquisitor will do C1. It seems like it would open the way for IKYKs or potentially give the Inquisitor potential strategies. I felt like it might have been better to ask mid-game, after the Inquisitor had already did and said stuff that people can observe.

C2: Nothing.

C3: Disagrees with DA about Arin being suspicious, saying that there weren't any elim buddies for Arin to have suspicious interactions with.

D4: Nothing.

I lean slight distrust on Bugsy. He's not very active and I don't quite get his reasoning. Slight distrust.

More to come, probably in semi- alphabetical order. Everybody with A names, I may or may not have completey forgotten your existence until I reread the thread...

[TheMightyLopen]

2 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

I was a Thug; I Snapped last cycle. I'm a villager, though I doubt you'd believe me.

@Herowannabe The way you're talking about me is so insensitive. "Do we call on our Coinshots to finish him off for us?" Guys, I'm right here.

Well it's not like you have a say in the matter.

But I agree with Wilson, the fact that you're claiming to have Snapped likely means you're actually a Thug rather than the Inquisitor. Which means you're probably a villager! Just in case though...

To everyone - If you Snapped and got a Misting power last Cycle, please tell the thread or someone in a PM.

[Elenion]

Well, assuming that Ecth did snap into a thug, chances are that the second convert that the Inquisitor got used to be a thug. Ising interesting.

To everyone, particularly the PM trust group thing: If you've received any Thug claims, now's a good time to give those players some scrutiny.

Also, if Ecth was the player who Snapped last night, then he's cleared village, because there have been no conversions since then and a Misting, like he'd be if he had been converted, can't snap.

[Jondesu]

39 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Also, if Ecth was the player who Snapped last night, then he's cleared village, because there have been no conversions since then and a Misting, like he'd be if he had been converted, can't snap.

That's true, anyone who snaps is cleared until the next conversion. If no one else claims to have snapped, I'll be more likely to believe Ecth, though there are too many inactives that theoretically could have snapped. That'd be a super bold move, though, and I can't see Ecth making such an easily disproven claim if it wasn't true.

[Herowannabe]

4 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

I was a Thug; I Snapped last cycle. I'm a villager, though I doubt you'd believe me.

@Herowannabe The way you're talking about me is so insensitive. "Do we call on our Coinshots to finish him off for us?" Guys, I'm right here.

True, but not as insensitive as the people who actually voted for you and tried to kill you, so I don't feel too bad.

But as others have said, your claim to have snapped into being a thug is a pretty good argument for your innocence, since it can easily be called into question by somebody else claiming to have snapped the same night. So I'm willing to give you a soft-clear, for now. After all, if everyone starts trusting that you're a villager then you become a prime target for conversion. 

[Yitzi2]

15 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Also, it looks like @Yitzi2's vote on me was soothed, or she's a rioter.

I'm a man, actually.  Yitzi is short for Yitzhak, which is the name anglicized to Isaac.

15 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

and Yitzi, forgive my illness-addled brain, what was the question posed to me? I promise I'll answer. 

Garshin asked Herwynbe whether Herwynbe, being interested in what people did when there was nothing important happening, would be interested in what Garshin likes to do when there's nothing important happening.

 

15 hours ago, Herowannabe said:

Interesting. Obviously Ecth is going to claim thug. If he is the Inquisitor it's not like he's going to come out and admit it. The question is, do we call on our Coinshot(s) to finish Ecth off for us? If Ecth is a thug, the Inquisitor will probably leave him alive so we'll be forced to deal with him, but maybe not if the Inquisitor wants a guaranteed misting to make a spike out of.

 

You know, even besides the snapping claim: If a seeker scans Ecth every so often, then either we'll be able to determine what he is, or force an enemy smoker to cover him full-time (and therefore not be available for other purposes, and also be easier for our rioters to find).

[Elenion]

We could just Soothe Ecth the same turn as we scan him. If the Soothing goes through, then we know that the scan was good.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This turn is now over.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

LG32: Day Five - Thinking of Titles is hard, ya know?

For today, I will say farewell to the letter format. It just gets so dreary. Always having to start with this, and end with that, and allude to this or that? It’s almost too much effort for what I get, and I don’t get anything! Anyway, life is getting busy for your buddy The Court Fool, so he’s taking a lil vacation right now in some faraway place, called Earth? It’s a very weird place, I’ve been told. Though I’m hopeful that at least one of the would-be-dictators could actually do their job for once.

Anyway, guess what? People did not die! And other stuff, but I’m not allowed to talk about it, oh well. Here’s the actual results. (and some messages that ended up here somehow)


A player was attacked, but survived.

Metacognition was attacked, but survived!


Tineye message:

Do not go gentle into that good night,

Survivors should burn and rave at close of game;

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Ans2ln(2log(tan(

Though spartans at their end know death is right,

Because their words had caught no spiked they

Do not go gentle into that good night.

4^sin(

Good players, the last wave by, crying how bright

Their frail deeds might have danced in another game,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

log(/sin(2log(tan(  7cos(

Wild players who do and play this game in flight,

And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,

Do not go gentle into that good night.

,7log(

Marked players, near death, who see with clear sight

Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

    TI-84 Plus

Tineye message:

with Tin enhanced Eyes i can See the Truth

 

Edited April 9, 2017 by Alvron

[Arrae]

@OrlokTsubodai, in the writeup, are protects distinguished from extra lives?

[Yitzi2]

Also, is the statement about "a player was attacked, but survived" in addition to Metacognition, or instead?  If in addition, do we know why some are identified who was attacked, and some are not?

Also: In the last night, @Elenion posted (I'm not sure how to quote from a closed thread) "We could just Soothe Ecth the same turn as we scan him. If the Soothing goes through, then we know that the scan was good."  I was under the impression that normal Smoking lets the seeker know that he was unable to determine what the player was.  Was my impression inaccurate?

[Jondesu]

2 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

Also, is the statement about "a player was attacked, but survived" in addition to Metacognition, or instead?  If in addition, do we know why some are identified who was attacked, and some are not?

Also: In the last night, @Elenion posted (I'm not sure how to quote from a closed thread) "We could just Soothe Ecth the same turn as we scan him. If the Soothing goes through, then we know that the scan was good."  I was under the impression that normal Smoking lets the seeker know that he was unable to determine what the player was.  Was my impression inaccurate?

I'd like to know too, and it'd be even more helpful if we can figure out if Meta was killed by a Coinshot (maybe in the name of the Crusade) or by the Elims. I'm guessing if those represent two different attacks, we might not find out the identity of the other person attacked, but that'll be  up to @OrlokTsubodai.

As for the Smoke and Soothe/Scan combo, you're right, even if we think he's got the UberCopper from the Inquisitor. That would make him show up as Regular Villager, which is at odds with his claim of Snapping last cycle. If he shows anything other than Village Thug, or if the seek fails, we'll know something's up (though the seek failing could be the Elims throwing smoke, pun intended, if he is telling the truth).

Edit: I've gotten somewhat fixated on Ecth, so tomorrow I'm going to do some analysis of both the others I was suspicious of before as well as anyone else that stands out. Also, no one was converted, so we don't have a new Elim to worry about yet!

Edited April 8, 2017 by Jondesu

[little wilson]

I'm going to guess that the attacked person who wasn't identified was lurched, and Meta is identified because he's a Thug.

1 hour ago, Yitzi2 said:

I was under the impression that normal Smoking lets the seeker know that he was unable to determine what the player was.  Was my impression inaccurate?

No, that's right. I'm pretty sure Len was more meaning that everyone would know it had worked or not, because otherwise only the Seeker would and anyone they're in contact with (if they've told anyone they're a Seeker). 

25 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

As for the Smoke and Soothe/Scan combo, you're right, even if we think he's got the UberCopper from the Inquisitor. That would make him show up as Regular Villager, which is at odds with his claim of Snapping last cycle. If he shows anything other than Village Thug, or if the seek fails, we'll know something's up (though the seek failing could be the Elims throwing smoke, pun intended, if he is telling the truth).

Um. The Inquisitor gave up UberCopper, so if the Seeker were to scan the Inquisitor and the Inquisitor wasn't smoked by a teammate, he would show up as the Inquisitor.

[Elenion]

Just now, little wilson said:

No, that's right. I'm pretty sure Len was more meaning that everyone would know it had worked or not, because otherwise only the Seeker would and anyone they're in contact with (if they've told anyone they're a Seeker). 

That's right. If the Soothe goes through, that means that the Seeker had a window with which to perform a scan. If the Soothe occurs and a Seeker contact announces to the thread that Ecth is evil, everyone knows Ecth is evil. If the Soothe occurs and nobody says anything in the thread, that means Ecth is village. If the Soothe doesn't occur, then we all know Ecth has not been successfully scanned yet. This, of course, is all contingent on the Seeker having a Soother or Rioter contact, but seeing the amount of vote manip so far I think ising likely that they do.

[Darkness Ascendant]

Quote

 

Do not go gentle into that good night,

Survivors should burn and rave at close of game;

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Ans2ln(2log(tan(

Though spartans at their end know death is right,

Because their words had caught no spiked they

Do not go gentle into that good night.

4^sin(

Good players, the last wave by, crying how bright

Their frail deeds might have danced in another game,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

log(/sin(2log(tan(  7cos(

Wild players who do and play this game in flight,

And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,

Do not go gentle into that good night.

,7log(

Marked players, near death, who see with clear sight

Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

    TI-84 Plus

And kudos to the Tineye for picking an awesome poem

I will be on/off for the rest of the game, rl problems *sigh

 

[Ecthelion III]

In my defense, I claimed Snapped the other night (a dangerous thing to do if I weren't telling the truth, especially if I were the rusting Inquisitor himself) and nobody has contested the claim.

[Herowannabe]

I am currently so stuffed up I can barely breath or think, I'm doped up on NyQuil, I'm on mobile, and it's late and I'm tired. So this is going to be brief.  

 

@Yitzi2- sorry about the gender mix-up. Won't happen again. And I'll try to get Herwynbe's response posted sometime tomorrow. 

 

@Everyone else: right now my biggest suspicions are all the people who posted last cycle, but that didn't cast a vote. Following them I am suspicious of everyone who didn't post or vote last cycle but who aren't completely inactive. Also I'm willing to give Ecth and those people who were soothed last round a soft clear- at least until the Inquisitor makes another convert. 

 

We we have a good thing going with this plan of using soothers/rioters to find people who are being smoked, and then ferret out the Spiked players. It puts them in an awkward position, because they either have to leave their copperclouds off and risk getting Seeked, or turn them on and risk getting caught by a Soother/rioter. 

But the plan only works if everybody participates. That means Everybody needs to vote. If you don't know who to vote for, pick someone at random. It doesn't really matter who you vote for as long as you're actually voting and can be tested for copperclouds. It also means that if you're a village smoker you will want to keep your coppercloud off. 

 

Anyway, that's all for now. Hopefully I'll have the time and means and wellbeing to go through and make a bit more substantial post tomorrow, as well as figure out who exactly I want to vote for. 

 

EDIT: also, to those who are saying we should scan AND sooth Ecth- what exactly is the point of doing both? If we scan him then we get all the info we need, no soothing required. The Inquisitor gave up ubercopper so we can trust the results of any scans we do now. 

Edited April 8, 2017 by Herowannabe

[Elenion]

@Herowannabe The Soothe is nice because, as I mentioned in my post above, it can be used with the right logic to notify the thread about the results of the scan without the Seeker having to claim or even use an intermediary unless Ecth is evil.

Using Soothing as a scan for Smoking sounds good, but we need to be mindful that a Spiked Smoker might use offensive Smoking to attempt to incriminate villagers, and that a Spiked Rioter could Soothe their own vote through a Coppercloud.

Has anyone considered yet that there might be an UberZinc that Riots without Soothing the user's vote? I think someone has brought that up before, but I'm not fully sure.