Orlok Tsubodai

Long Game (3)2: Pulling on Strings

963 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Okay, so I'm done going through Lopen's posts (the mystery person whose posts I said I was going to analyze). He's had quite a few posts, and managed to say very little of interest (from an analysis point of view) in these posts. There was one thing that stuck out at me though, which is that he states he doesn't trust his gut as much as he used to, but then starts working down a list made of gut-feelings this cycle. Apart from that, I've got a Neutral read on him.

It should be noted, however, that I've proven in QF22 that I'm not that good at reading Lopen.

Well. I've got to have some reason to put down a vote, don't I? :P Even though I doubt my gut is gonna single out the Inquisitor this early, there's not much else to rely on at this point.

Once more stuff has happened, I should say more interesting stuff. I know I wasn't much help this Day Turn, but I was much busier than normal.

Relevant vote tally:

Drake(6): Bugsy, Hero, Randuir, Rae, DA, Elenion
Araris(4): Wilson, Arinian, HH, Drake

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I might just vote on Drake to prevent vote manip. If one player's vote is switched, then we have a tie. So I encourage everyone who has not voted to vote.

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Well, guys, I'm not at all sure that changing the bandwagon from Drake to me is really accomplishing anything. At least from the perspective of my last post, we still don't have a wide range of players that have their lives at risk. What I was trying to say is that if, say, 10 players have votes on them, and there isn't a bandwagon, then the eliminators likely will have to use their own votes to protect their lives. The idea is to force them to have to do something solid. I tried to contribute in this fashion by voting for Elenion, and I have a real, non-gut reason for that vote.

Of the players voting on me, I don't mind Wilson or Drake's votes. I should probably be posting a bit more while classes are going slow, and at this point in the game self-preservation is a decent motive for a vote. But the Aralis in me really wants to whack HH and Arinian upside the head. Why don't we just kill both of them and have an end to this pointless bandwagoning? I would have responded to Wilson's single vote, so 4 is a bit overkill. If the idea is to kill players that are paying attention but being unhelpful. both of them are perfectly valid options.

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This cycle is now over.

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LG32: Night 3 - A Moment Of Silence


Dear ___________

Why will you not talk to me anymore? I thought we were such good friends. I remember the days of responses fondly, even though it was only about a week ago. You want me to do all the heavy-lifting for you or something?

Sincerely,
The Lover 


Drake Marshall was lynched. He was a Regular Crewmember.

Vote count
Bugsy6912: Jondesu (1)
Drake Marshall: Bugsy6912, Herowannabe, Randuir, Arraenae, Darkness Ascendant, Elenion (6)
Elenion: Ecthelion III (1)
Araris Valerian:  Arinian, Hemalurgic Headshot, Drake Marshall (3)
Hemalurgic Headshot: Araris Valerian (1)

Edited by Alvron
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Okay, so If I haven't miscounted, Wilson and Figberts have been soothed. Wilson had voted on Araris, and Figberts had voted on HH. Wilson, would you be willing to share who you soothed?

That's it from me for the coming hours, as I'm off to bed. Good-night.

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I soothed Figberts. I told both Rae and Lopen before rollover, so they can confirm.

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2 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I soothed Figberts. I told both Rae and Lopen before rollover, so they can confirm.

Yup, she did tell me that.

I find it very funny that we've only lynched Regulars so far. At least we're not giving the Inquisitor very many options. XD

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Araris, I give you permission to whack Quinn upside the head. You already did it to Joe.

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Whoops, I'm used to rollovers being later in the day for me, so I didn't get back to change my vote. No harm done, but I don't like not doing something I said I would. I'm not surprised by Drake being a villager, as I said, but I would guess that the Inquisitor didn't vote on him (the convert might have, however). I want to anazlye Elenion, Randuir, Ecth, and Lopen's posts, as the ones I mentioned I was the most suspicious of. I'll try to get that done and post a summary of my thoughts before the end of the night turn. I don't expect to be too high priority of a kill or convert, but I think I've got a good idea going and I don't want to risk it being lost.

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Wilson said 3 hours ago that she would soothe Figberts.

Edited by Arraenae
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@OrlokTsubodai, there's no countdown in the writeup, btw. EDIT: D'oh, just realized there hasn't been for any of them.  Oh well, that's how much attention I've been paying.

Edited by Jondesu
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Welp. Drake was innocent. Sorry about that. :(

Looks like we have two Soothers, Wilson and someone else.

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@OrlokTsubodai, are all of the letters from anonymous people relatives, etc of the actual players locked away in Keep Tekiel? This one was sent from "The Lover".

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Ok, wow.  I just did some analysis of the players I mentioned, and I can tell you this right off the bat: Randuir and Len post a lot.  Randuir moreso by a decent margin this game, at least.

Len: Seems to be following his standard procedure.  Mixing in some helpful plans/tips for the village, some analysis, some GM questions, and lots of bandwagoning.  Not completely without reason usually, but he's definitely prone to that.  Nothing so far has stood out to me as particularly unusual, but I'm always wary of him.  For now, though, a neutral read, not exceptionally likely to have been converted I think, due to the attention he's attracted at times, with votes on him each cycle.

Lopen: Hasn't been as active as Rand or Len, but still posting quite a bit.  He's also had some questions, though more for other players like Aman than the GM, and has asked a fair bit about the Uber powers, at least back in the early cycles. That could easily be cover for already knowing what the Inquisitor can do, but it seemed genuine.  Leaning village for now based on his overall posts, but would have been a fairly good choice for conversion.

Randuir: Posting a whole lot of questions, RP, suggestions, big analysis posts.  His tone is a lot like LG30, which doesn't really help him, but I haven't played enough games with him to know if he's got any obvious tells, or if that's how he'll always play.  Wary, but I didn't see any specific content that makes me suspicious.  Would have been a pretty good choice for conversion as well, though someone lower profile is more likely.

Ecth: He's been lurking.  Stated several times that he was behind on the thread and was trying to catch up, sounds like he's had a genuinely busy life recently, but…that strikes me as exactly the type of person who would turn down Aman's challenge and kill him instead, and who would try to fly under the radar by not being inactive, by placing votes, but being very circumspect so far. @Ecthelion III, do you have an explanation for how sparse your posting has been so far? You're my top suspicion at the moment, and I'd place a vote on you if this was a day cycle.

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1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

Randuir and Len post a lot.

*laughs*

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

For now, though, a neutral read, not exceptionally likely to have been converted I think, due to the attention he's attracted at times, with votes on him each cycle.

I'd like to agree with you, except that in itself might make me a good target for conversion. Take LG28, where Alv converted Doc because he'd just barely instituted a strategy designed to ensure that he wasn't converted. So don't get me wrong--I haven't been converted :P--but a vote each cycle I don't think would dissuade the Inquisitor from converting me, or anyone else with that type of attention on them. Then again, our Inquisitor has shown that they aren't a risk-taker by killing Aman, so maybe that idea has some merit as a way of screening players after all. Ah, scrap this train of thought. I'll include it in my post to show that I am ising the thinking, though.

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

Randuir: Posting a whole lot of questions, RP, suggestions, big analysis posts.  His tone is a lot like LG30, which doesn't really help him, but I haven't played enough games with him to know if he's got any obvious tells, or if that's how he'll always play.

I played as Rand's companion in the Double Elimination game, where we were both village, and what I've seen here is very similar to the kind of things he brought up in our Alter-Ego PM. I'm inclined to read village on him because of it.

3 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Looks like we have two Soothers, Wilson and someone else.

That, or our old friend the Rioter is masquerading as a Soother while casting no vote of their own.

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@Hemalurgic_Headshot, for any writeup related questions, ask Stink. His mind works on a level alien to most of us. I could not comment on his content with any accuracy.

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9 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

@Hemalurgic_Headshot, for any writeup related questions, ask Stink. His mind works on a level alien to most of us. I could not comment on his content with any accuracy.

@STINK :wub:

A LOVE LETTER TO STINK

Jack the Ripper/

Off the light of consciousness//

The bell tolls because someone rung it/

Frozen hearts remain frozen// (unless the power goes out in your shop)

Dessert comes with an opportunity cost.

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I'm probably going to be less active for a while. At least for the rest of today and tomorrow.

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Don't expect too much from me, I'll be in Washington DC.

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12 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

....

Regular Crew member...fml

Hey, like Lopen mentioned, at least lynching regulars doesn't help the Inquisitor make converts.

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Just now, Jondesu said:

Hey, like Lopen mentioned, at least lynching regulars doesn't help the Inquisitor make converts.

I guess *shrugs. But it just shows how off I was...I sincerely wish Drake defended himself better.

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The turn is now over.

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LG32: Day 4 - Keep Calm and Carry On

Dear _____ 

The Fool isn’t present today, so I have been instructed to take his place in order to provide you with your own instructions and review the events of the night. Apologies, all, if I am slightly less entertaining. 

As many of you may already be aware (I am fully cognisant of how fluidly gossip spreads through the unwashed masses), Winkleton was fatally wounded this previous night by a particularly unsavoury character, the identity of whom is as yet unclear, unfortunately. 

I strongly advise that you stay calm. The Lord Tekiel operates a… strong security system. Any attempts to escape this trial will be welcomed, and the individual concerned used to appropriately disincentivise any further dissent.

Your compliance is appreciated.

The Captain of the Guard
 


Ornstein was killed! He was a Regular Crewmember
Someone was converted!
Someone Snapped! 


Tineye message: 

Thishnexttmessagetispdirectedstowards:the/Inquisitor./

Iywantotouproposetyouuanother.challenge.bDoenot/convertqme.dInstead,7let'sfhaveHaOgoodColdcfashionedGgamenofEcat and mouse. Tineye versus Inquisitor. Whoever gets found first dies. Why should you accept this? Well, I’m a tineye leading a group of confirmed villagers. The moment I am spiked, I stop being a tineye. No more PMs. No more messages. A few select villagers already know who I am. If these messages stop one cycle after someone has been converted, they’ll know exactly who the newly made spiked is. I’ll be lynched and you’ll be down a spike. Everybody loses.

If you do not accept my challenge, kill me tonight. I promise you that I am a Misting, so killing me will get you a conversion for tomorrow night, if you can find me. But if you do accept my challenge, I ask that you kill a player whose number is prime, such as Iamspartacus.

In the spirit of this challenge, I ask that any and all potential village code-breakers do not try to guess my identity publicly.

I look forward to seeing your answer either way.


Player List
1. Arinian - Alrin
2. Hemalurgic Headshot - Quinn
3. Jondesu - Remart
4. Elenion - Roger Elariel
5. Drake Marshall - Serray - Regular Crewmember
6. Darkness Ascendant - The Phantom Stranger
7. Randuir - Magister Agemtsar
8. Magestar - David Agemtsar
9. Herowannabe - Herwynbe
10. Yitzi2 - Garshin
11. Metacognition
12. Silverblade5 - Ryth
13: Arraenae - Rhea
14. TheMightyLopen - Sidon
15. little wilson - Willie Klara
16. Droughtbringer - You  - Regular Crewmember
17. Iamspartacus - Astrid the Bold
18. Ornstein - Winkleton - Regular Crewmember
19. Araris Valerian - Wol
20. Dalinar Kholin - Lebochevkowski - Village Coppercloud
21. OmeGaster - Rieyun
22. Kipper - Elenion
23. Sart - Gaetan - Regular Crewmember
24. Bugsy - Jelwynd
25. Figberts - Quond
26. Mark IV - The Follower
27. Manukos - Reval
28. Aonar Faileas - Vana Izenry
29. Ecthelion - Amnar
30. Amanuensis - Mykal - Village Smoker

Edited by Alvron
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