Quick Fix Game 22: Ghosts in the Night

[Elenion]

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

However, I did consider that if you were an elim, you may have killed Bart/Aman so you could make that argument. Because your accusation of HH is only grounds for suspicion to us if we assume you're village. But, I'm not sure. That logic might be kind of tunnel-y. Which is why I'd like to read back through the game.

Actually, neither Bart's nor Aman's death was necessary for my argument. My partner's plan was rendered ineffective the second that Sart was lynched as village, because it provided no confirmation of Bart/Aman's alignment. Were I an elim, I could have revealed the plan with Bart/Aman still living, and have taken no less flak from it.

The kill on Bart/Aman has actually proved detrimental to my credibility, as it has shown that my suspicions for the first two cycles were unfounded. Elim!Len would have made a kill that strengthened his credibility or left it unaffected, not one that made him a lynch target. I find it likely that last night's kill was meant not only to remove our best analyst from the game, but also to throw suspicion onto me for tunneling on him. Wasting today's lynch on me would, in effect, hand three consecutive kills to the elims: one on Aman last night, one on me today, and one tonight on another active player.

[Droughtbringer]

5 hours ago, Arinian said:

I already gave answer why I'm voted on Bart. Also your post strikes me as suspicious... Why? You not accusing me directly but going with question(and that's very convinient way to put suspicion on someone and in same time stay away), question which don't have any sense cause it's usual for villagers to mislynch players, especially players which made weird(same thing was with Sart he made post which players counted weird(suspicious) and for that he was lynched) posts.

Honestly, I am not suspicious of you, (any of the people in this game currently) but I do want something to go off of, and something to base my suspicions on, and something to look at, nothing may come of it, or something may, I am just trying to find something based off of the evidence that I have.

Also as to why I am being more active, I am really impressed with what I have seen Aman do with his analysis, and it makes him a significantly more valuable player. I want to try to emulate that at least a little bit, and try to help the village out.

[Stick.]

Hm. Len votes on HH and says Lopen would be soft cleared if HH turns out to be evil. Then, Jondesu also votes on HH and says that he'd go after Len if HH turns out to be innocent. So I have simple logic- HH's C1 posts that Len came across do seem odd and suspicious.

If he gets lynched now, the lynch results would tell us a lot: if he's an elim (an elim caught! Yay) Len would pretty much be cleared, though it could be a bus. And if he's a villager, my C4 vote would go on either Len or Jon. Since I really don't know who to be more suspicious of out of y'all, I suppose the HH lynch is my best option right now.

[TheMightyLopen]

16 hours ago, Arinian said:

 

Lopen. Bad gut read. Maybe I'm tunneling  . Maybe I just don't liked his last post.

Cause he likes how HH started this cycle and I don't like how HH started this cycle.

Right now I think between voting on Drought or HH. For now let it be... coin said it will be Drought.

Maybe will add something later but there chance (only chance... not sure how things will go ) that I will be busy till Friday.

Well, I thought it was more substantial than his previous posts, which is why I liked it. Only major thing I didn't like about it was that he didn't vote on anyone. Just asked a few players some questions.

15 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Well, thank you for responding, those who did. The thing is, Len, is that your targeting of Bart coupled with Aman's suspicion, and that you switched your vote to the bandwagon, to hasten the death of another villager, plus what my partner expressed, combines to make a strong suspicion of you.

And here's his vote. But I see it as mostly a retaliation vote, and the reasoning seems kind of thrown together to make it seem like it's not just a retaliation vote.

Could you go into more detail about what your partner expressed, HH?

11 hours ago, Elenion said:

Actually, neither Bart's nor Aman's death was necessary for my argument. My partner's plan was rendered ineffective the second that Sart was lynched as village, because it provided no confirmation of Bart/Aman's alignment. Were I an elim, I could have revealed the plan with Bart/Aman still living, and have taken no less flak from it.

The kill on Bart/Aman has actually proved detrimental to my credibility, as it has shown that my suspicions for the first two cycles were unfounded. Elim!Len would have made a kill that strengthened his credibility or left it unaffected, not one that made him a lynch target. I find it likely that last night's kill was meant not only to remove our best analyst from the game, but also to throw suspicion onto me for tunneling on him. Wasting today's lynch on me would, in effect, hand three consecutive kills to the elims: one on Aman last night, one on me today, and one tonight on another active player.

Fair enough. I've always viewed kills as an unreliable source for suspicion anyways, since it's possible the elims killed someone specifically to mess with suspicions.

Okay. So this is a lot later than I'd planned. I took a "nap" and ended up sleeping a lot longer than I thought I would. >.>

I've looked over all of Len's and HH's posts, and I do think the evidence weighs heavier against HH.

Len did warn about bandwagoning on Bart/Aman on D1, which might have helped save a villager from being lynched. I don't like the way he kept after Bart for his vote on him, but I guess it's understandable given Bart really didn't give much reasoning, and then he kind of seemed to hide behind Aman. I could also see him proposing his role claiming plan as a villager. I already mentioned he's bold enough to have proposed it as an eliminator, but I probably was looking at all of his posts with some bias, since I've had some suspicion of him for a while. And as I mentioned earlier, him and his partners idea about clearing Bart/Aman through lynching Sart sounds like a villagers thought process.

HH, as has already been mentioned, stated that Bart and Len were highly unlikely to be elims back on D1. He said he meant it from a purely statistical viewpoint, but he still seemed like he was saying he thought they were both villagers(because why else mention statistics?). He didn't vote on D1, but I don't really see that as alignment indicative. D2, he votes on Sart, because he could be lying about his partnership with El(not sure what would be the point of that though, so don't see how it's suspicious) and also because Sart might have been trying to figure out village pairs like he says the elims would try to do. But he does say he was voting blindly on Sart because he didn't want another no lynch. At the time, I was a little nervous that he was voting with me, since I thought he could be trying to buddy up with a little, since I'd accused him earlier. Then at the very end of the Cycle, he says he thinks Sart is village with no explanation. Which brings us to this Cycle, and I've already commented on his posts this Cycle.

Anyways, in conclusion, his post about Bart and Len being probably villagers, plus pretty much all of his posts about Sart seems suspicious. His vote on Len this Cycle also seems like an easy way to vote, since he's just countering Len's vote on him. I'm not certain he's an elim, but I do think there's better evidence against him than there is for Len, and I'm pretty certain that they're not both elims from the way this Cycle has played out. If HH is an elim, I think I'd consider Len and Jon fairly clear. If he's village, well, I'd have to reevaluate things.

Vote tally:

HH(4): Len, Jon, Stick, Lopen
Len(1): HH
Drought(1): Arinian

@Magestar, @DroughtBringer, are you going to place your votes anywhere? I'm not 100% sold on this lynch, so if you have a better candidate in mind, I'd like to hear your reasoning.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Hmm. I see the logic in lynching me. Lopen, you expressed suspicion of me D2, so I'm not surprised you decide to lynch me. I will just say to lynch Len for me once I'm gone. 

[Droughtbringer]

Okay So starting with Len...

1. Len decides to start out with the first discussion related post of the game, (not counting Sart's random vote on Bart because of his name. Talking about Slim numbers. Says there is probably 2 might be 3, 3 would be scary. If Len is an elim I would expect there to be 3 of them.

2. Second post is Len's response to Bart/Aman questioning his previous post. Says he would like more information, but still forcing himself to vote. Votes on Bart.

3. Doesn't want to get into a giant bandwagon (yet) on Bart, also says he (and most other people) would like to be able to PM. 

Start of day 2:

4. RP...
Talks about good and bad Bandwagoning, good is everyone is suspicious of X bad is where one person is suspicious of X and everyone else follows.

5. Note on not revealing partners.

6. Doesn't think bussing will be overly effective this game due to low (unconfirmed) elim numbers. Also is taking 'steps' to avoid being traced to his night partner.

7. Didn't want to get prior bandwagon from spiraling out of control, but still thinks Bart is elim, thanks to Aman saying he was in the way,  places vote on Bart.

8-9. He wants everyone to Reclaim, 7 is proposing the idea, 8 is saying he likes the idea, 9 is him asking people's opinions on it. 
The idea is that roleclaiming would allow the village to control what is going on better, and we could have multiple votes for vig kills, scanner roles, etc. Plus with us being able to have the people revealing not be able to be targeted specifically it could prove beneficial. 

Beginning of day 3:

10. Brings up HH for the lynch because of him seemingly playing players off of each other. 

11. Talks about his and his partners planning, and how his ideas have played out. 

12. Says that if HH is village then we can be suspicious of him, and that people are naturally suspicious of him. 

13. "Thanks for that. :P"

14. Vote tally, plus talking to Lopen about his reasoning and switching to HH. Arin about his vote on me and switching it.

15. Notes that things look bad for him, his suspicions are unfounded, but he would have gone for a kill more beneficial to himself. 
Conclusion: He wanted to stop the Bartwagon, doesn't want partners revealed, and wants people to reveal roles. I have a fairly strong village read on him thanks to his pushing for the role reveal (which I think is a quite effective strategy) his arguments as to why he is a village seem real to me, and, for now, he has my trust.

@Elenion

 

Edit: I haven't been overly active, but I Good chunk of my time has been taken up recently by making this post, and going through the other two that I said I would do. I think that HH is the best option currently, I will hopefully have one more of these done before the turn ends,  probably Arin's, but I may not be able to finish it in time. (I also have school right now so it's kinda hard...don't think I will actually be able to finish it)

Edited March 22, 2017 by DroughtBringer
Response to current stuff.

[Arinian]

1 hour ago, DroughtBringer said:

Okay So starting with Len...

1. Len decides to start out with the first discussion related post of the game, (not counting Sart's random vote on Bart because of his name. Talking about Slim numbers. Says there is probably 2 might be 3, 3 would be scary. If Len is an elim I would expect there to be 3 of them.

2. Second post is Len's response to Bart/Aman questioning his previous post. Says he would like more information, but still forcing himself to vote. Votes on Bart.

3. Doesn't want to get into a giant bandwagon (yet) on Bart, also says he (and most other people) would like to be able to PM. 

Start of day 2:

4. RP...
Talks about good and bad Bandwagoning, good is everyone is suspicious of X bad is where one person is suspicious of X and everyone else follows.

5. Note on not revealing partners.

6. Doesn't think bussing will be overly effective this game due to low (unconfirmed) elim numbers. Also is taking 'steps' to avoid being traced to his night partner.

7. Didn't want to get prior bandwagon from spiraling out of control, but still thinks Bart is elim, thanks to Aman saying he was in the way,  places vote on Bart.

8-9. He wants everyone to Reclaim, 7 is proposing the idea, 8 is saying he likes the idea, 9 is him asking people's opinions on it. 
The idea is that roleclaiming would allow the village to control what is going on better, and we could have multiple votes for vig kills, scanner roles, etc. Plus with us being able to have the people revealing not be able to be targeted specifically it could prove beneficial. 

Beginning of day 3:

10. Brings up HH for the lynch because of him seemingly playing players off of each other. 

11. Talks about his and his partners planning, and how his ideas have played out. 

12. Says that if HH is village then we can be suspicious of him, and that people are naturally suspicious of him. 

13. "Thanks for that. :P"

14. Vote tally, plus talking to Lopen about his reasoning and switching to HH. Arin about his vote on me and switching it.

15. Notes that things look bad for him, his suspicions are unfounded, but he would have gone for a kill more beneficial to himself. 
Conclusion: He wanted to stop the Bartwagon, doesn't want partners revealed, and wants people to reveal roles. I have a fairly strong village read on him thanks to his pushing for the role reveal (which I think is a quite effective strategy) his arguments as to why he is a village seem real to me, and, for now, he has my trust.

@Elenion

 

Edit: I haven't been overly active, but I Good chunk of my time has been taken up recently by making this post, and going through the other two that I said I would do. I think that HH is the best option currently, I will hopefully have one more of these done before the turn ends,  probably Arin's, but I may not be able to finish it in time. (I also have school right now so it's kinda hard...don't think I will actually be able to finish it)

I know I can look agressive with some of my posts but I just defending my point of view. As I said to Mage posts like one that you done is not analysis, and it's not very helpful for understanding your thoughts or your view on situation so logicaly this kind of posts not useful for village. Yes, this post is good for activity and I understand that you can have be busy with your RL and I don't have any right you to blame for that. But if you have time to do post like that you surely have time to do shorter post but more consistent, post where you will give your thoughts on players... on whatever you want.

And as I see there not gonna be any change so HH. Drought.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

It is the final hour... the last hour of HARVEY's existence. It had done what it could, but that was not enough. It recalled the AirCam, which whirred down into its palm. Then HARVEY crushed it with its fist in one blow. Bits of electronics fell between its fingers. Defiant, HARVEY strode out into the town center. No one noticed at first, the illusion was up. But then it flickered... sputtering image, flashes of cold metal bones and wired veins. The people stared and gasped, the once normal "human" shuddering into a technological being. HARVEY's smooth face plate, devoid of mark or line, regarded the town with an eyeless gaze. The fading sunlight glinted off its metallic limbs. Then the townspeople cried out, tossing rocks at a creature so foreign.

"Voidbringer!"

The men drew swords and knives, mothers clutched children. HARVEY was stoic. It scanned the town rooftops, watching. The lens of Brandir's telescope flashed, watching the spectacle. HARVEY raised a fist, its assailants stepping back in fear. But the fist was not to them, but the man behind the distant telescope, who watched, guilty. HARVEY held the fist aloft, a symbol of defiance, unmoving, as the frightened and angry townspeople moved in. 

One stroke, CLANG!

Two strokes, CLANG!

Three strokes, SNAP!

Four strokes, SHIING!

Five strokes...

Over and over, the flash of the sword and the beat of the rock, a vicious rhythm and malevolent cacophony. HARVEY's cameras began to shut down, the sensors fading, circuits snapping, the circuit boards cracking. Senses fled from HARVEY, the semblance of life leaving. HARVEY never was alive... so could it die? This final question drifted into the void as HARVEY's AI shut down.

The townsfolk heard a pop and jerked back from the prone form of HARVEY. A mist rose from the metal carcass, twisting in the twilight. It rose into the sky, weaving in the wind, before disappearing all together, the last of what was HARVEY, Hyper Advanced Variant of Environmental Yesterdays, version 3.14.159s.

[Wyrmhero]

The Turn is over!

[Wyrmhero]

Night 3: Antipathy

Khas whistled. "I'd hate to be that Harvey guy. If I didn't know better, I'd have to assume that everyone was just waiting for the change to get him offed."

"I would have hoped that our people would have enough professionalism not to endanger our mission like that," Wurum shrugged. "But ultimately, it doesn't matter. As before, I did what was necessary. At the very least, it was a relatively painless death. He went to sleep and simply... never wake up. Compared to how most people in this business end up, it's a relatively kind death. More than they could have expected."

"Heh. So you expecting that sort of courtesy when your time comes?" Khas asked.

"You're assuming that I will be killed?" Wurum raised an eyebrow. "Have you no faith?"

"In you surviving? Damnation, I don't even expect myself to survive in this line of work. Why do you think I have such an irreverent view on life? I'm sure someone will kill me some day." He pushed his glass forward. "Is there any more of that wine?"

"I suppose so," Wurum sighed as he got up and took another bottle out of the wine rack. "I'm glad it's not my wine you're guzzling down like water."

"It's not?" Khas asked. "damnation, then why am I even bothering?" He chuckled.

"Is the only reason you're here to try and drink as much alcohol as possible?"

"No, no. Remember, I want to hear your story," Khas pointed out as he poured himself another glass. "So why not continue?"

"Well, before I do... There is one thing you could at least tell me. Why have you appeared here? This story isn't that important to you, is it?"

"No, but I have my reasons," Khas shrugged.

"And you're not going to tell me what those reasons are?" Wurum asked.

"I was bored," Khas said. At Wurum's disbelieving gaze, he threw his hands up in the air in defeat. "Okay, fine. I was concerned."

"Concerned? You?"

"Yeah. Without me, you've got no-one to keep you sane. Damnation, I know I'd go mad if I only had a few spren for company. So, decided to keep you company for a bit."

"I suppose the thought is appreciated," Wurum nodded.

"And I also thought I was drinking out your wine," Khas said. "Let's not forget that."

"Fine. I won't, I promise you. So, do you even want to hear the rest of the story?"

"Of course," Khas smiled as he raised his glass in a half-toast. "Can't just leave the story there, can we? I want to hear the rest of it."

"Very well... Then let's move on to the following night..."
 

---

Harvey (Hemalurgic Headshot) was a Ghostblood!

Harvey/Hemalurgic Headshot (6): Arvian/Arinian, Groot/Droughtbringer, Thorot/Jondesu, Brandir Sebarial/Elenion, Stick, Revali/TheMightyLopen
Elenion/Brandir Sebarial (1): Harvey/Hemalurgic Headshot

Night 3 has begun! It will end at 9 PM on Thursday, GMT. 

Day players may not post in the thread. Night players may now PM each other and post in the thread..

Notemos Town Hall Clock

 

Player List

 

Day

1. Hemalurgic_Headshot (Harvey)
2. Magestar (Enoemos)
3. Elenion (Brandir Sebarial)
4. DroughtBringer (Groot)
5. Sart (Sart)
6. TheMightyLopen (Revali)
7. _Stick_ (Stick)
8. Bartimaeus (Bart)
9. Jondesu (Thorot)
10. Arinian (Arvian)
11. Drake Marshall (Mestow)

Night

1. Straw (Dave Davenport)
2. STINK (Odd Man)
3. Manukos (Whiler)
4. Ecthelion III (Amnar the Watcher)
5. Arraenae (Neiha Solam)
6. Elbereth (Senja)
7. Amanuensis (The Soulcaster)
8. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel)
9. Figberts (Hak)
10. phattemer (Seixa)
11. Randuir (Battadin)

Dead (day/night)

1. Mestow/Neiha Solam - Ghostblood
2. Sart/Senja - Ghostblood
3. Bart/The Soulcaster - Ghostblood
4. Harvey/Manukos - Ghostblood

Edited March 23, 2017 by Alvron

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ok. We've had a serious dearth of activity on night turns recently. Part of this is my fault - beyond making a my views clear on Elenion's strategy, I didn't say anything else last night turn. Part of this is that I've had far longer days at work this week, and been distracted with life, but again, I should have been more active.

I will read through the thread once more, and work out questions, but in the spirit of driving conversation before I finish:

@Straw, @STINK, @Ecthelion III, @Figberts, @phattemer, @randuir.

What are your thoughts on Elenion's plan, partner reveals, the lynch, or anything else? 

@randuir, you were an active player in LG31, and I thought your analysis was excellent - it would be welcome now.

@Ecthelion III, you've been very quiet recently.

@STINK, are you still playing? Are you lurking deliberately, or just uninvested?

[DeTess]

@OrlokTsubodai I'll get my thoughts up soonish. It's about midnight here, so I'll probably post it after I've had a night's sleep (which should help with my coherency).

[Ecthelion III]

Sorry, I was out of it last cycle. Like Randuir, I'll get my thoughts up soonish.

[Ecthelion III]

(Sorry for the double post)

I have watched from the shadows for quite some time. After all, the shadows are my domain.

There are certain advantages and disadvantages for this life. The foolish put themselves forward in front of everyone to be judged. More often than not, this has ended up with them killed by the hands of Brandir and Thorot. This is a cruel democracy.

That isn't to say that those who lurk in the night aren't stalked by a more dangerous threat. Killers lurk in the shadows, and they will murder on merely a whim without giving opportunity to explain oneself. To those of you who I know are listening--for you are always listening--know that my motives are backed with purpose. My logic is founded. I ask you to look at our own Ghostbloods who have been brutally murdered at the hands of some, and ask yourselves the question: who has done this? Do not be deceived by their clear and blatant lies. Even the murderer found standing over a body will try to shift the blame by any means possible.

I cannot make my will known in the foreign day lest I be murdered like the others. Still, the shadows speak to you. Watch. Listen. The evidence is before you. Now act.

AMNAR THE WATCHER

[Farnsworth]

Hak wept. Four Ghostbloods dead, one killed in part through his support. The Sons of Honor were slowly gaining in power. His training with the sword had done nothing to make him more aware of who was a traitor and who was not. This must end. 

Hak stood up, alone in his cabin. He was still crying softly, but stood with confidence. He did what he had only done twice in his life before now. He spoke an oath to Honor.

"In an attempt to make up for what I have done to the Ghostbloods," he said. "From this day, until two days in the future, I shall not kill, nor make any attempt to kill. I will learn more about the others, and only then will I consider killing one of them for being a traitor. May Honor accept my oath"

He strode over to the other side of his cabin and began to train.

[DeTess]

I'll do a player-by-player pass of the day players, starting with those that voted on HH... Which is just about all of them, so there goes my sneaky plan to reduce my workload.

So, without further ado, let's start with @Arinian. I've looked through cycle 1 again, and haven't found any reason to revise my comments on him from that cycle, so I'll pick up where I left off and start with cycle 2. Arinian only had two posts in the second cycle, but one of those was of considerable size. He made some good points about various things, but there is one thing I'd like to lift out (bolding mine):

Quote

3)Analyze day players... what problem with it? You right we can do nothing to night parts. And you right about peoples with roles but we don't know if there any roles in this game. I see possibility where Wyrm just wrote roles and then just didn't put them in game. Why not?

A lot of information could be gleaned from this one off-hand comment. This comment, to me, only makes sense if Arinian is a vanilla Ghostblood. If he is a ghostblood with a role, he wouldn't make a comment that he is aware is false. If he'd been asked about his role, he might lie about it no matter his alignment, but there was no point to bring this up there in the first place. If he had been an elim, then it would have been a dangerous comment, because if a lot of players actually had roles, his misunderstanding could be construed as indicating he's actually an elim.

The other possibility I can think of is that he's an elim strategist, and due to his scan already knew two ghostbloods where roleless (one from the lynch, one from his scan). If that was the case, however, I don't think he'd be in favor of the roleclaim, as this would level the playing field from a point at which he had an advantage.

edit2: actually, if he was an elim strategist, he'd be in favor of the roleclaim, as it would allow him to match pairs. I expect he'd be far more active in trying to get it implemented if that was the case though.

There is one other comment in his big post I'd like to attract attention to:

Quote

For now I have good(good in my situation means neutral cause I'm too paranoid) read on Jon, Len, Drought. Also to add Drought is sneaky one so maybe I should retract him from my list of "good read".

He, unfortunately, doesn't provide any reasoning for these good reads, which is at least as important as explaining your evil reads. In Cycle 3, he changes his mind about drought, and instead puts him up as suspicious and votes on him. One of the reasons he presents for that is the lack of posts from Drought, which is odd, because apparently there had been enough posts from him to get a good read before. 

Arinian hasn't posted anything else that's terribly exciting from an analysis point of view. He provides reasoning for voting on Drought and HH and it does not appear faulty or overly biased. Overall, I'm still leaning villager on him, despite his somewhat confusing turn-around on Drought.

Moving on, we get to @DroughtBringer. He's been mostly lurking, but has had an uptick in activity this cycle. This reminds me somewhat of LG30, where he was less active through most of the mid-game, but became more active in the late game, so I don't think that in and of itself is alignment inidcative. I agree with Arin's assessment regarding his post summing up Len's activity. The conclusion is the important bit, and the time needed to compile the rest could have been put to use elsewhere. It does look impressive, but it's not actually useful. Overall, I can say very little on him based on his activity. Neutral

I'm going to take a short break now, and then move on to Jondesu.

Edit: Back from that break, so let's talk about @Jondesu. Note that for some reason, I've picked up a somewhat negative bias against Jondesu for this game. I hope I'll be proven correct, though.

So, let's start with his very first post of cycle 2(edited out unnecessary tag, bolding mine):

Quote

Orlok, I do get your confusion about why I was suspicious about Bart's claim, but I've seen a very good tactic used by Elims with a role before. They claim, then prove that role, and then use that to gain trust. It's worked several times recently for scanning roles, and here, I could see it used in a "lite" form. Reveal who your partner is, they confirm it's true, and bam, you've given out true information, but it doesn't actually confirm your alignment. People are more likely to trust you because you told the truth about something, though.

Plus, this is the way I am when I'm part of the uninformed majority. I don't always grasp the implications of things right away.

The bold part stands out to me, as it's both superfluous and meaningless. It basically says "Look, I did that suspicious thing I did because I'm village." It's a non-argument, that follows after an actual argument. He didn't need it here, but the fact that he did include it makes it look like he really designed to post to make him look village, which is something an actual villager would not be worrying about as much.

Nothing from the rest of cycle 2 stands out in particular, for good or ill.

Now, on to cycle 3. The first comment I'd like to discuss is this one(tag removed):

Quote

Droughtbringer, I doubt they would have worried too much about pushing that lynch, but considering Bart would have been lynched D1 if I hadn't retracted my vote, I'd like to think I'm fairly clear by that criteria. I can't imagine any reason I would have done that were I an Elim, since it would be an easy one to play off.

I disagree that there are no reasons an elim would have done that. In fact, he provided one himself, stating that he believes this clears him from any suspicion surrounding Aman's death. If Aman had been lynched there, a lot of suspicion would have come the way of those that made the lynch possible. A villager might have kept his vote there anyway because of legitimate suspicion, while an elim would know Aman was innocent and so would take the first excuse to back out again to avoid undue suspicion. Of course, he could also have been legitimately swayed by Drake's arguments.

Allright, on to another interesting post. This was said after Arinian outlined just how little Droughtbringer had posted:

Quote

Huh, that is interesting. I had given him a pass for a bit because he said he wasn't going to be around (in the blue text), but I hadn't realized how much he was lurking.

At the moment, changing my vote wouldn't really affect much, but I would consider it, or would vote for him next cycle

At the time he said this, the vote tally was as follows:

HH (2): Len, Jon

Len (2): Lopen, HH

Drought (1): Arin

This was also mentioned in the post in which Arinian displayed Drougth's posts, so it was very unlikely Jondesu missed it. As can be seen, if jon had moved his vote here, drought would have been moved to the tie position with Len, which would have placed him more in the spotlight than HH, so saying that it wouldn't change much at that time is a bit of a stretch.

I haven't been able to find much else of interest about Jondesu in cycle 3. If it wasn't clear yet, Is supect he's an elim.

As I said before, I feel like I'm a bit biased against him here. That doesn't mean you should ignore my arguments, but you should take a look at his posts for yourself first, instead of blindly following my lead on this.

So, next up is @Elenion. I can't get too much from his posts in cycle 2. I've expressed my opinion on role-claiming last night-cycle (though I'd like to add that I think we've passed the break-even point and that it would no longer benefit us more than the elims). His comment about his partner having a plan sounded ominous, but I think his explanation in cycle 3 was adequate, though slightly underwhelming.

There are two comments from cycle 3 from Elenion that I'd like to discuss here:

Quote

If HH does turn out village, you would have every reason to suspect me. I would have tunneled on Bart, helped lynch Sart, and started a bandwagon on HH. For that reason, I really hope HH turns out elim.

So, in this comment, he sound reasonably confident. I don't think an elim would say this, knowing that HH is actually village, as he's basically staking his reputation on it.

Quote

The kill on Bart/Aman has actually proved detrimental to my credibility, as it has shown that my suspicions for the first two cycles were unfounded. Elim!Len would have made a kill that strengthened his credibility or left it unaffected, not one that made him a lynch target. I find it likely that last night's kill was meant not only to remove our best analyst from the game, but also to throw suspicion onto me for tunneling on him. Wasting today's lynch on me would, in effect, hand three consecutive kills to the elims: one on Aman last night, one on me today, and one tonight on another active player.

So, there's a bit of IKYK going on with this one, but it seems reasonable ( I actually used a similar argument to try and convince my partner to vote HH). If Elenion is actually an elim, this means that  the comments above are part of a stratagem involving at least an IKYK of level 2. Just thinking about that makes my head hurt, so I'll leave it to others to decide wether he would go this deep down the rabbit-hole. I've got a Neutral read on him for now, with his support for lynches of villagers on the one hand, and the fact that he sounds sincere about it on the other hand.

I'm taking another break, and will get back to the rest later today.

Edit 3: The break is over. Next up is @_Stick_.

After being silent for the first half of the cycle, a poke-vote form Jondesu brought stick back to the thread with an interesting post. She analyzed Rae's posts, which I suspect has helped solidify the Sart lynch, due to the suggestion that the elims might have targeted Rae to silence people who where against partner-claiming. The post overall was interesting, but not particularly alignment indicative, one way or another.

Her second post that cycle is far more interesting. She claimed the sudden bandwagon on Sart had made her suspicious, and decided to vote on Mage. There are two odd things about this: First, there where only two votes between her first and second post. One from jondesu, who quoted Stick's analysis of Rae's post as the deciding factor for his vote switch, and one from Elenion, who stated the information gained from A Sart lynch would help with his partner's plan. I don't consider either of these two particularly bandwagony. The second odd thing is that she didn't vote on any of the bandwagoneers that had apparently made her suspicious, but rather on mage, who had stated that he was still unsure about that particulkar lynch.These two odd things take together, and it sounds to me like Elim!Stick was trying to distance herself from what she knew was the lynch of an innocent villager.

In the third cycle she posted once, placing the third vote on the HH lynch. There are apparently some statistics going around that elims are usually the third to fifth vote on a lynch. I don't have enough experience to judge this myself, so I'll disregard this coincidence myself. I've mentioned it here for those among you who do use that statistic.

So, in conclusion, I've gotten an elim-vibe from Stick's most recent posts.

So, now we get to @TheMightyLopen.

Lopen's first post of cycle 2 had an interesting contradiction:

Quote

My reasoning for voting on HH was that he said it was highly unlikely Len or Bart were elims then went on to cast suspicion on Bart. His explanation actually did lessen my suspicion of him a little, I just wasn't around to respond to it. I went to sleep really soon after posting my last post, and while I did see his defense before I went to bed, I was too tired to respond and then I slept until rollover, so I haven't had a chance to respond until now.

Quote

To respond to Drake's vote on me last Cycle(RIP), I hadn't realized HH had a vote on him initially(until I did my vote tally), because I didn't know "Harvey" was him, but it did give me more reason to vote on him, because once 2 votes are on a player, it's easier to get opinions on them from others. If my vote was going to be the killing vote, I probably would have removed it though, since I had already stated that a no lynch might be best.

I'm curious how Lopen was planning on probably removing the vote if he slept till rollover . On a more serious note, though, Lopen has put up some meaty posts in cycle 2, which gave me a village-gut feeling on him, though I can't point to anything in particular in his posts to rpove this point.

So, on to cycle 3. I find it interesting that lopen somehow felt personally responsible for the Sart lynch, but that's not a particularly alignment-indicative post. I'm running into that constantly, actually. Lopen might be an elim providing excellent reasoning, or a villager providing excellent reasoning, and as long as that stands up to scrutiny, I'm having a hard time telling which of the two he is. So, based on somewhat verifiable proof, he's Neutral, but my gut says village.

That only leaves @Magestar.

Magestar hasn't posted too much these last two cycles, though I do find it somewhat interesting/suspicious that he hasn't voted on anyone yet. In fact, in a lot of posts he's pondering why voting on certain people is probably a bad idea. This might be an attempt by an elim to fly udner the radar without appearing to fly under the radar. however, a quick check back to LG30 shows that he voted on lynches in less than half o the cycles, so this could also be part of his normal playstyle. So, I've got a Neutral read on Mage.

So, yeah, I'm starting to get an appreciation for just how much time Aman puts into this game when he's an active player. And I only had to go through 7 people. There is one important thing I'd like to say in conclusion, and that is to stress the importance of doing your own analysis, or at least to check what others have said. If the elim kill goes through tonight and the next night, and there are two elims (I think it's unlikely, but not impossible that there is only one) then the next lynch has to hit an elim, or it's over for the village. So let's try to gather enough information and thoughts on the matter that we can get the elims the next cycle or two. Or failing that, get enough information we can legitimately claim 'I knew it' In the aftermath.

Edited March 23, 2017 by randuir

[Wyrmhero]

The turn is over!

[Wyrmhero]

Day 4: Ghosts in the Mirror

"...And so the odd man died," Wurum said, coming to a rest. When he didn't say anything else, Khas gave him a verbal nudge.

"So?" he asked, "what happened next? You can't just leave me on this suspenseful cliffhanger, what happened the next day?"

"I don't know," Wurum muttered quietly.

"Pardon?"

"I said I don't know," Wurum growled, standing up violently and banging his legs against the table. The wine swayed in the glasses, threatening to spill onto the wood and stain it a deep, rich red. "I wasn't there. I cut my losses and left, does that satisfy you?"

"How can it? You ran," Khas said flatly. "You left them to die. They were your subordinates, you had a duty to care for them. Instead, you acted like a coward and fled for your life."

"What could I do?" Wurum asked, clenching his fists as he glared down at his guest. "The next day, I didn't get any names passed to me. All I got was confusing and unhelpful suggestions. It was clear to me at this point that the Sons of Honour had as good as killed off our operations in the town, if not actually. Without knowing who was on our side and who was on theirs, I couldn't take any action against them. If I'd stayed, I'd have been killed sooner rather than later. No, I'd have been captured and tortured for my secrets, and frankly, I am too valuable to the organisation to let that happen. It's unfortunate, but better for everyone if a few lower-level people die for the good of the group."

"So you survived," Khas nodded, frowning. "But only because you decided to place your worth above theirs. What a cowardly thing to do."

"I had no choice. And for that matter, our superiors agreed, they would have done the same in my situation. I made the right decision."

"And I'm sure that would have been a great comfort to you if you were in Arvian's shoes," Khas replied. His expression was calm, but while he seemed tranquil, he spoke through gritted teeth. "Tell me, would you like to die for the Ghostbloods?"

"They knew that was a risk when they signed up!" Wurum replied, raising his voice, heedless of anyone hearing him. "It's their fault they're dead, not mine! If they'd only just found the bastards, they'd still be alive! They've no-one to blame but themselves!"

"The dead can't blame anyone," Khas said softly. "The only one blaming you is yourself."

Wurum gave a weary and worn sigh and collapsed into his chair, his legs folding beneath him as though unable to support his weight anymore. "It's not my fault," he repeated, placing his arms on the table and resting his head on them. Tears slowly fell on the table, seeping into wood. "You don't understand. It's not my fault."

There was no response. On the table before him was his own empty plate, a glass with dregs of wine at the bottom, and three empty bottles. The other half of the table was clear. The tricorne hat, a favourite of his when he went around disguised, sat silently on the chair opposite him, judging him. A coat was draped over the chair's back, a fetching long leather coat that he had purchased on Scadrial. The Lighteyes here did enjoy their fashion, but in his opinion it could never hold a candle to Scadrial's. He never wore it anymore.

Behind the chair, the mirror reflected the room back on itself. Within the glass, it depicted an image of the room. The image was cold and dark, and all it contained within was one man and his despair.
 

---

The Sons of Honour win!

As this was an experimental game, I would like to know what people thought about the pairing up aspect of the game and its implementation. I will post my usual after-game analysis of the concepts and balance within this game either tomorrow or Saturday.

Dead/Spec Doc
Sons of Honour Doc
Mastersheet

Edited May 30, 2017 by Alvron

[Droughtbringer]

Phew...wow that was a cool game. I do wish my partner and I were able to talk more...and...wow. Twas a fun game. 

Thoughts will (hopefully) come eventually...I have things to do currently, but Good job everyone! Especially Elims, I didn't really expect any of you...Good game,

[DeTess]

Welp, I got one out of three correct in the end. Good job to the elims. Also, the next time Aman tells me he has suspicions on three people, but only explains one, I'll remember to pay a lot of attention to the other two, even if he is wrong about the first one (he called Mage and Lopen as his other suspects, apart from Elbereth, in a PM with me). I'll probably put my thoughts regarding the two-player mechanic up tomorrow.

Edited March 23, 2017 by randuir

[Magestar]

Huh.

Well, we won.  That was fun.  

If I could have done one thing, I would have been more thoughtful about my suspicions, and more active.   Good job everyone.   

[Sart]

Does anyone else feel like this role distibution was really, really weird? We have a messenger, which I suppose makes sense. We also have a shadow and a backup shadow, which can block scans. Except there are no scanning roles. The eliminators have a spy, which doesn't do them any good, since it just reveals alignment, and another shadow, which again, no scanners. Was the village supposed to have a Spy? That would make the Shadows make more sense. I wasn't expecting this to be straight vanilla, especially with the double agent mechanic. A stalker would have been useful.

[DeTess]

Also, doing that piece of analysis at the end was an interesting exercise, especially regarding the importance of ignoring preconceptions. The fact that there where some things pointing to _stick_ being evil caught me by surprise, and If I had looked at Lopen's posts without this impression from day 1 that he was village, I'd definitely have had him as completely Neutral, and given the amount of text he produced, that should have been a clue to his true alignment. Anyway, it's a shame it proved to be for nothing, but ti was interesting to do anyway.

Also, before I forget, apologies for tunneling on you, Jondesu.

Edited March 23, 2017 by randuir

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I was wrong. Hmm. Well, my greatest, apologies, Elenion. Good game everyone!

[Wyrmhero]

33 minutes ago, Sart said:

Does anyone else feel like this role distibution was really, really weird?

My work here is done . I will talk about this when I talk about everything else.