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Quick Fix Game 22: Ghosts in the Night


Wyrmhero

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Quote

 

@Arinian, you list off a set of suspicions your partner has, but then don't vote on any of them. What are your reasons for disagreeing with your partner?

 

@Arinian, acknowledging that there's a difference between voting on and lynching a player (my above question stands despite your view), I'm minded to say I disagree on your advocacy of no lynch on D1. The lynch is a great driver of information gathering, and without it we're left with little for N1 players to actually discuss.

I will start my post from answer to Orlok.

1)First look on your second question and you will get answer why I'm not voted. Second why I should agree with my partner? Like yes, we one person in this game, but we really don't have one brain. Also I never doing things like my partner did(I'm about list... I think this lists is useful for lazy players which don't want to read through all posts), I don't think that list was very useful. This list nice for understanding of someones look on what happenes but not more.

2) I never disagreed that lynch is "good driver of infromation". But I already said my points on C1 so you can go and look on them if you want.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

24 minutes ago, Sart said:

Alright, I clearly haven't demonstrated my position clearly enough. Let's go over the Pros and Cons of not revealing your partner.

Pros:

  • You can't be targeted by the eliminators. I understand that is a nice benefit. However, it is selfish. The eliminators are going to kill someone at night. If there are two eliminators, there is a one in eight chance you will be killed, barring any protection. The eliminators will target active night players, and, if the teams are doing their jobs, those will be people with active day players. Thus, it isn't true protection. It just makes you feel safer, without actually contributing anything.

Cons:

  • It delays the lynch. Look at what happened on Day 1. Bart was going to be lynched, then claimed Aman as a day partner. If someone's night partner is trusted, the town is going to wait until that claim is verified. This leads to less lynches, which is a problem in a game with this few teams.
  • It's selfish. If we have our night partner tell different things than our day partners, we don't stick to the same script, which causes confusion. It just muddies the water for analysis. We want more information as the village, not less.
  • It detracts from analysis. Simply put, we cannot analyze night player if we do not know their partners. Let's say I found a night player suspicious. What could I possibly do to them? I don't know their day partner, so I can't vote for them. I could target them with an action, but if I don't have one, or if I'm a healer, that wouldn't do any good. That really sucks.
  • It makes scanning useless. Even if we scan someone as evil, there's nothing we can do about it. That's insane. We know someone is bad, but can't vote for them at all. We would have to hope that we have a vigilante on our side. That's not a gamble I'm willing to make with this low of numbers. That is just bad.

Some people are voting for me because of my vote on Jondesu. I didn't like his posts yesterday. I didn't agree with his logic for not revealing partners, and his vote on Bart seemed a bit optimistic. I noticed that randuir and Orlok both expressed suspicion of you. Since I agreed with their analysis, I put a vote on you. I'm not sure that you are an eliminator, but I'm keeping my vote where it is, at least until you give a better explanation for your vote on Bart, and your retraction of it.

1)Your first point about delaying lynch false, C1 lynch was delayed cause people had agreed that there shouldn't be lynch on C1. I don't think that this would happen again and revealing Night partner not gonna influence it(maybe only if someone would reveal that his night part was one who pointed on proven(by proven I mean lynched and by this way proven) elim. Anyway if this will happen lynch we can lynch someone else.). Also your point about waiting for verification false, if someone lying about night partner it's easy to check(cause there always day partner which can say "Hey he is my night partner! Not yours!")

So your first point is wrong.

-

Conclusion: you absolutely wrong about it.

2)I'm selfish, I don't like to die. But that not what I wanted to say. I'm looking on night part more as on PM worker, even if night part wants to make some in thread analyze there can be couple people with same suspiciouns(points of view) and blah blah blah. So is not so easy to make connection between players as you think.

I don't see how it's can be point for what about you talking. There more time for day discussion, there more discussion in day time, we lynching day player not night. I don't see that as big problem.

+\- 

Conclusion: you right but that's not big problem.

3)Analyze day players... what problem with it? You right we can do nothing to night parts. And you right about peoples with roles but we don't know if there any roles in this game. I see possibility where Wyrm just wrote roles and then just didn't put them in game. Why not?

Also to say is that easier in normal game to chose target for ability use? I don't think so. In normal games you using abilities based only on your conclusions same thing in this game there you just also should make connection between players(and from your first post I see that making connection between players isn't problem for you(atleast you saying that it's not problem for you)). Yes that's makes game harder but I not gonna count that as point cause if everyone will reveal their night parts that will make game easier for village but also easier for elims cause disappears problem with choosing target, so they can plan their kills better.

+\-

Conclusion: you right that that will make things easier for village, but I think that's also makes some things easier for elims.

4)That's damnation fair point. You right about that.

+

Conclusion: That's damnation fair point.

Honestly to say when I read your thought at first it's looked like very bad idea. Now I'm not sure about it, but still I not gonna reveal my partner. Cause on my opinion you brought only one truly good point.

18 hours ago, Sart said:

Sart looked over at Thorot (Jondesu). The argument that they shouldn't reveal their partners was simply false. The main argument was that it would protect day players from the eliminator kill. That was simply untrue. Since they would be communicating during the night thread, they would most likely be echoing their other halves. Thus, their night halves would be targeted,  Having identities hidden was much more beneficial to the eliminators. It essentially doubled their strength, as their was no reason for them to have logic consistent with their day selves. In addition, it made it easier to analyze the remarks of night players. For most players, it would be pointless to analyze the night players, because they couldn't do anything about them. They were ineligible for voting unless their day-partners were revealed.

Sart had decided to reveal his partner's identity, but he needed permission first. He was the muscle, not the brains of their partnership. After all, who could match his immaculate body? (Note: Sart may or may not be a balding, middle-aged man with a bear gut) He wondered who Jondesu had on his side. It would be nice for analysis at least.

Also I don't understand why you voting on Jon? Can you explain why?

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Back to things from which I wanted to start.

Bart\Aman. Undoubtedly RP was great but we didn't get answer why Bart said what he said. Having Aman as night player is good thing but I not gonna count it's as excuse for things which Bart said. I want answer.

HH.

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Okay, there hasn't been a lot of discussion, or anything, this Day. Because of the failed lynch D1, we simply have a repeat today. So we can lynch someone who may or may not be Village or Elim, or do nothing and have a guaranteed Village death during the Night. I'm leaning towards the hopeful lynch. 

So there are three votes currently: one on Bart, one on Jondesu, and one on Sart. There is a 1/4 chance that one of them is an Elim, statistically speaking. I'm speaking quite a lot in statistics lately, haven't I? I don't want this lynch to be a waste like the last one, so I'm going to go out on a limb blindly and vote Sart. Sart voted on Jondesu because his logic was "false."

I will repeat lynch on D1 not failed, most of people just agreed on no lynch on D1.

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He claimed El as partner, but as we haven't heard from everyone in the Day, we can't be sure whether he is telling the truth until Night (unless we kill him).

We can easily confirm it cause no one denied his words. For me it's more then enough.

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Sart claims that Elims could puzzle out who each partnership was by comparing strategies, perhaps because that was what he was doing?

I don't think that only elims would try to do it.

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Because... primarily I think my logic/analysis is weak, so I set up a fallback if people questioned it. Then I thought upon suspicious evidence of Sart that I wanted to add, so I did. It was a step-by-step thought and writing process, in which I did not go back and change the previous steps.

Even weak logic is better then saying nothing (I even don't know why I'm saying it, it's obvious thing!).

Mage.

9 hours ago, Magestar said:

As far as revealing my partner goes, I would typically think it's a bad idea, if only because I don't want to die. :P  As long as no one knows who my night partner is, I can't be intentionally targeted.  If you want to reveal, I guess that's fine, but from a self preservation perspective it doesn't make a lot of sense, unless you're trying to convince someone to protect you.

I might do another huge analysis today, if I have time, but I think I'll at least wait until the first page is filled up.  Not a lot of noteworthy things seem to have happened. 

I'm not sure it was wise for Sart to reveal his partner...  But if his partner really is El, then it's not unlikely she's going to get targeted anyway.  Same with people like Aman and Orlok.

I'm not going to vote just yet, but I'm somewhat suspicious of Len.  I'm not sure about voting on Bart or Sart?  I'll have to see.  

Honestly to say I can't call your "lists of things what happened" as analysis. You giving your opinion on people and what they saying that's good, but for me it looks superficial. From your lists players can't make normal conclusions on what you think and it's gives you great back way to abandon thing which you said. Also how you abstain from voting right now can be interpreted not in best way for you :ph34r:. I'm just warn that you on right way to get my vote on you sooner or later :P

Lopen.

11 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Next order of business, my vote. My suspects as of right now are: HH(reasons stated), El(by association with HH and I get nervous when someone says they have a village read on me without giving any explanation), Len(just a small amount, I can't really decide about him, a couple things he's said have made me a little suspicious, but I've had troubles reading him in the past), Drought(mostly would like to see more from him, and since he'll be gone for the most part this Turn, I'm content to give him more time).

I'm voting on Sart. I'll admit it's mostly because I'm suspicious of El, but I will say that I disagree with him about revealing partners. It is possible to be careful about wording if you do post some stuff for your partner, and it does offer protection from the elim kill. He's also voting on Jon, who I'm leaning village on. I considered voting for HH again, but I know I'm prone to tunneling(Arinian as my latest victim, sorry about that btw) so I'd like to hear more from him and try to keep more of an open mind.

My village reads right now are: Manukos(thing about Rae), Jondesu(him saying he hadn't realized elims could only target Night players seems like a genuine thing - it seems too obvious a thing to miss to think up to gain trust, if you get what I mean. I know he voted on Bart after he claimed Aman was his partner, but if Bart/Aman...are villagers(is a villager? :P), that seems like a really gutsy thing to do for an elim), kind of Bart/Aman, just based on gut(Aman's post didn't really make me lean either way, but it was good RP!) and because Len is going after Bart like he is.

Everyone else is kind of "meh." Either not enough content, or I just can't tell. >.>

Honestly to say in LG30 when you started tunneling on me I started tunneling on you :P(but I'm understand that I'm tunneling on you too late) so I forgive you :D.

Also about Manukos I'm on your place would be not so sure. 

And also what makes you believe that Aman is village? He didn't gave any answers, so what you makes to trust him? Only gut or there something else :ph34r:

For now I have good(good in my situation means neutral cause I'm too paranoid) read on Jon, Len, Drought. Also to add Drought is sneaky one so maybe I should retract him from my list of "good read".

Also I was busy today so I didn't reread previous cycles, but I will try to do it and give addition to things that I said now before rollover (maybe after I will reread previous cycles it would change my opinion on certain things, but I doubt in it).

Hmm... I think that's all for now. Maybe later will bring some thoughts from my partner.

 

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Sart, I'm a bit baffled by your vote on me, and your question. I fully explained both my vote on Bart and why I ended up retracting it. I'm wavering a little on revealing my partner, but I certainly won't do it without their full approval. I'm unconvinced that it won't help the Elims more than the village despite your points, which definitely have some good reasoning.

Edit: I should note that my default is always to avoid providing information. The Elims already start out with an advantage in knowledge, and enabling them to more easily figure out roles and connections only helps them.

Edit 2: In this case, I have to add one more thought. Let's say someone has a scanning role, or vigilante, or something like that. The Day player can then reveal their knowledge relatively safely, without fearing the Elim kill, since they can't be targeted directly. Once the Elims know all the pairings, however, that advantage and protection disappears.

Edited by Jondesu
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Extending off of Jon's edit 2, what if all of the day players were to claim their roles to the thread, and then we as a whole could decide who gets scanned or vig-killed? Protection of course would be left unassigned, for obvious reasons. We could assign players who claimed non-vanilla and have provable roles to have their night player prove them, and the elim team wouldn't be able to go anything about claimed day scanners or kills.

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2 hours ago, Elenion said:

Extending off of Jon's edit 2, what if all of the day players were to claim their roles to the thread, and then we as a whole could decide who gets scanned or vig-killed? Protection of course would be left unassigned, for obvious reasons. We could assign players who claimed non-vanilla and have provable roles to have their night player prove them, and the elim team wouldn't be able to go anything about claimed day scanners or kills.

Hmm, that's better, and certainly takes advantage of the anonymity granted by the split roles. I still am not sure I want the Elims to have confirmation of which roles are in the game and how many of us have roles.

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6 hours ago, Sart said:

Alright, I clearly haven't demonstrated my position clearly enough. Let's go over the Pros and Cons of not revealing your partner.

Pros:

  • You can't be targeted by the eliminators. I understand that is a nice benefit. However, it is selfish. The eliminators are going to kill someone at night. If there are two eliminators, there is a one in eight chance you will be killed, barring any protection. The eliminators will target active night players, and, if the teams are doing their jobs, those will be people with active day players. Thus, it isn't true protection. It just makes you feel safer, without actually contributing anything.

Cons:

  • It delays the lynch. Look at what happened on Day 1. Bart was going to be lynched, then claimed Aman as a day partner. If someone's night partner is trusted, the town is going to wait until that claim is verified. This leads to less lynches, which is a problem in a game with this few teams.
  • It's selfish. If we have our night partner tell different things than our day partners, we don't stick to the same script, which causes confusion. It just muddies the water for analysis. We want more information as the village, not less.
  • It detracts from analysis. Simply put, we cannot analyze night player if we do not know their partners. Let's say I found a night player suspicious. What could I possibly do to them? I don't know their day partner, so I can't vote for them. I could target them with an action, but if I don't have one, or if I'm a healer, that wouldn't do any good. That really sucks.
  • It makes scanning useless. Even if we scan someone as evil, there's nothing we can do about it. That's insane. We know someone is bad, but can't vote for them at all. We would have to hope that we have a vigilante on our side. That's not a gamble I'm willing to make with this low of numbers. That is just bad.

Some people are voting for me because of my vote on Jondesu. I didn't like his posts yesterday. I didn't agree with his logic for not revealing partners, and his vote on Bart seemed a bit optimistic. I noticed that randuir and Orlok both expressed suspicion of you. Since I agreed with their analysis, I put a vote on you. I'm not sure that you are an eliminator, but I'm keeping my vote where it is, at least until you give a better explanation for your vote on Bart, and your retraction of it.

Is there a reason to reveal partners right now though? I can understand your points for revealing them I guess, but it seems to me that we could wait until it's more convenient. If a scanner scans someone as an elim, we could ask that everyone claims, since it would definitely be worth it at that point. It is possible that the elim connected with the scanned elim would lie about their Night partner, but that would be a risk, since they'd be claiming a villagers partner, so once we figured out who was lying(either by deduction during the Day or by waiting until Night), that village pair would be cleared.

I was actually considering that players reveal their partners in the later Cycles(though if there are 3 pairs of elims, or another kill ability, this game could be over faster than I'm thinking), so we could have a boost in discussion because of the extra stuff to analyze, so I get your point. I'm just of the opinion that the negative of giving the elims the ability to choose their targets outweighs the positive of the info we'd gain at the moment.

Your reasons for voting Jondesu aren't what made me vote on you. I've got a village read on Jon, so the fact that you're voting on him at all is what I mentioned as suspicious. Also you're claiming El is your partner, and I'm suspicious of her.

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Extending off of Jon's edit 2, what if all of the day players were to claim their roles to the thread, and then we as a whole could decide who gets scanned or vig-killed? Protection of course would be left unassigned, for obvious reasons. We could assign players who claimed non-vanilla and have provable roles to have their night player prove them, and the elim team wouldn't be able to go anything about claimed day scanners or kills.

What is the point of everyone claiming their roles? It could give some accountability, but I'm not sure I quite get what you're trying to accomplish here.

To respond to Arinian, my village read on Manukos is small, but I still thought I'd mention it. My village read on Bart/Aman wasn't about anything Aman did. RP is really hard to analyze... I just lumped them together since I had a small gut read of village on Bart, and I also mentioned that the read was probably influenced by Len voting on him twice, because I'm mildly suspicious of him(Len).

Vote tally:

Bart/Aman(2): Len, Arinian
Jondesu/
???(1): Sart
Sart/
El(2): Lopen, HH

No-vote(5): Mage, Drought, Stick, Bart, Jondesu

Bart, eh. I don't have a strong enough read that I'd be against his lynch. I'd like to see him vote, since right now it kind of looks like he's laying low. I'm keeping my vote where it is for now though, since I'm still suspicious of Sart/El(even with HH voting alongside me >.>).

Mage, Drought, Stick, and Jondesu, please add your vote somewhere as well. We need everyone to be voting. LG30, it seemed like only the same 7 or 8 players were voting every Cycle, which made analyzing things really difficult. This game, we've only got 10 players left who can vote. So please, vote somewhere.

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I want to have a role claim from everyone because then we can coordinate things like scans and vigilante kills, if we have either in the game. If we do have a scan, we can decide as a whole who is most suspicious, and scan them, and then the scanner can reveal the result publicly.  We could have a night vote for vigilante kill, and the anonymous night vigilante could carry it out. As Lopen mentioned, we also could have action accountability for players, so we could confirm that a given player could not have performed the elim kill. Lopen mentioned that the disadvantage is that the elims would know what we have, but considering that we don't even know what we have I think it's a fair trade.

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white text! Can't remember the last time I use white text in my posts 

8 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Where is Stick this cycle anyways? You're about the only player laying low and not posting, Stick. That makes me suspicious, even though I don't expect you to make the huge posts some people do.

sorry, yesterday was a busy day and I didn't get time to read the thread 

I was about to counter that with the fact that Drake hasn't posted yet too >>

Speaking of which, was last night's kill random? I don't think they'd have known who her partner was, so let's just take a look at all of Rae's posts:

Post1:

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Yes! I can talk now. Finally!

Amanuensis, if Bart is really your partner, time to talk about whatever he promised you would say.

Nothing to say about this, I guess

Post2:

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I PMed Aman. He says that he's going to post everything as RP and that Bart is his partner.

Hopefully can post more before rollover. Will get to a list, hopefully.

She PM'ed Aman. Don't see a threat to the elims in that. Unless Aman's evil and she revealed something important, but I don't think that's likely.

Post3:

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I think Bart is most likely to be a newbie who did some awkward communicating, as Manukos and Randuir said. Also, maybe Wyrm decided that giving Aman less time to talk could balance him. They could still be elims, but Bart's partnerclaim wouldn't be evidence either way.

Len, how are we going to handle RP? I know it's a small issue, but it's really bothering me. Should we post long chunks in each of our turns? I PM every Night player with character details for Neiha and you write up everything?

Lightly defended Bart, and talked about RP.

Post4:

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I don't think partnerclaiming would be a good idea. I see no reason for it. Besides, if the elims decide that they want to kill a Day player for being too on-point, they would have to know their Night partner to kill them. Keeping Day/Night pairs secret seems like a good idea.

Um..maybe the elims really liked the idea of partnerclaiming? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I mean, it would be easier for them to target day players that way, as many have already pointed out. Then again, they might want us to think that partnerclaiming isn't a good idea when it actually is, because lots of people think confirmed good=confirmed right. Though the former logic obviously makes more sense.

Also from last night:

Orlok:

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@_Stick_, your claim to tie the votes because two villagers will die anyway at night only really holds water if the lynch targets were all village - why so confident?

I don't recall, from any of the games I've played, a C1 lynch target being anything other than a villager :-P 

Straw:

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I don't have anything to add to this.

 This makes me suspicious ^ 

13 hours ago, Elenion said:

Extending off of Jon's edit 2, what if all of the day players were to claim their roles to the thread, and then we as a whole could decide who gets scanned or vig-killed? Protection of course would be left unassigned, for obvious reasons. We could assign players who claimed non-vanilla and have provable roles to have their night player prove them, and the elim team wouldn't be able to go anything about claimed day scanners or kills.

Assuming we all reveal our roles, and keeping in mind that all of us share our roles with our partners, I think it'd be pretty easy for a night player to stalk another night player, get their partner's identity and check their role from the day thread. And if that stalker is an elim, revealing our roles simply isn't wise. And I don't believe that everyone would be honest with their roles were we to role-claim anyway :-P

10 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Mage, Drought, Stick, and Jondesu, please add your vote somewhere as well. We need everyone to be voting. LG30, it seemed like only the same 7 or 8 players were voting every Cycle, which made analyzing things really difficult. This game, we've only got 10 players left who can vote. So please, vote somewhere.

 

I'll vote before the day turn ends. I haven't thought on who to vote on yet


 

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Thanks, Stick. I hadn't thought to analyze Rae's posts, and the partner claiming is a significant factor potentially. @Drake Marshall, please do weigh in.

Because of the continued focus on this, and the suspicion (that I agree with) that it is very possibly the reason Rae was targeted, I am going to swing my vote back to Sart. Sorry, but the reasons for not claiming continue stacking up despite your points, and I'm starting to get the impression you knew that and were trying to downplay those reasons.

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20 hours ago, Arinian said:

Honestly to say I can't call your "lists of things what happened" as analysis. You giving your opinion on people and what they saying that's good, but for me it looks superficial. From your lists players can't make normal conclusions on what you think and it's gives you great back way to abandon thing which you said. Also how you abstain from voting right now can be interpreted not in best way for you :ph34r:. I'm just warn that you on right way to get my vote on you sooner or later :P

Probably shouldn't have referred to that as analysis. :P  It really isn't.

But at the same time, "List if things what happened" is a bit of mouthful. :P 

15 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Mage, Drought, Stick, and Jondesu, please add your vote somewhere as well. We need everyone to be voting. LG30, it seemed like only the same 7 or 8 players were voting every Cycle, which made analyzing things really difficult. This game, we've only got 10 players left who can vote. So please, vote somewhere.

Ok.  I don't know that all of the reasons I've seen to lynch Sart are good reasons.  From my perspective, if Sart was an Elim, than he could safely reveal his night partner without being worried about being attacked, and hopefully encourage people to reveal, thus gaining more intel on who makes the best kill.  Not sure I'm suspicious of El;  although I confess I probably didn't pay as much attention to the night cycle as I should have.  HH's reasons for voting on Sart are ok, but I'm not sure I'd lynch Sart for the reasons provided.  

As for lynching Bart...  I feel like both him and Aman are being rather quiet.  I've already given my reasons for not voting on Bart D1, and they largely still apply today.  However, if this trend of quietness continues, I would be open to lynching them simply because I feel like they're dodging.  If they survive to a certain point, I'll have some more reasons to lynch them;  simply because I doubt they'd survive for a long time as villagers, but right now, I'm not feeling it.  

Sarts vote on Jondesu seems to be just because he disagrees with his argument.  I have already said I can see both sides of revealing, so I'm not going to touch this one.  However, I don't think that a disagreement in logic is enough to prompt a lynch.  I have felt something slightly off in Jondesu's tone, as I have with Len, but that's mostly gut.

I'll review the votes again at the end of the cycle, and place a vote then.  I don't think I have enough of a read on anyone to solidly place a vote myself, so I'll see who I'm most in favor of lynching at the end of the cycle.

As for role revealing... This is something I'd consider, but only as a replacement for revealing my partner.  Since I'm not likely to reveal my partner, especially not yet, I'm seriously considering revealing my role, since I can be reasonably confident that no one would be able to target me.  

I think that's all I've got to say for now.

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I'm sick today, so I'll make this short. Jondesu. I don't agree with your argument, but everything you've said today gives me a village read. I was tunneling on you from yesterday. I obviously don't want to get lynched, but I'm having trouble coming up with an alternative. Aman/Bart are also up for debate, but I still think that lynch was reading too much into a new player's day one post.

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Although I think Sart is wrong in saying that revealing day-night pairs are a good idea, he does sound like he genuinely believes/believed that it was the best strategy. That balances out to a neutral read on him from me. However, my night player has said that they would like to see Sart lynched for information relating to a plan that they've got, so I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon. Bart Sart

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Vote Count:

Jondesu (0): Sart
Bart (1):  Elenion, Arinian
Sart (4): Lopen, Hemalurgic Headshot, Jondesu, Elenion
Stick (0): Jondesu

And now a few words from my partner:

Quote

A few notes, while I'm still alive. 

On 3/17/2017 at 6:46 PM, Elenion said:

@OrlokTsubodai As I said last game, there is good bandwagoning and bad bandwagoning. Lots of voting on Bart would have created a bad bandwagon, based on following others' opinions instead of your own and killing discussion as it grew. I put my vote on Bart to make a point that I thought his voting on me was suspicious and unjustified, but I didn't want it to snowball like it began to, because that's how you get bad bandwagons.

I... would argue that the 'good bandwagoning' you speak of isn't actually bandwagoning. Bandwagoning is when you jump on someone who already has a lot of votes, without reasoning. If you have reasoning and spark more discussion with your vote, it isn't a bandwagon. 

On 3/18/2017 at 3:50 AM, TheMightyLopen said:

My reasoning for voting on HH was that he said it was highly unlikely Len or Bart were elims then went on to cast suspicion on Bart. His explanation actually did lessen my suspicion of him a little, I just wasn't around to respond to it. I went to sleep really soon after posting my last post, and while I did see his defense before I went to bed, I was too tired to respond and then I slept until rollover, so I haven't had a chance to respond until now. Anyways, what I found suspicious was that he(in my interpretation) said he thought both Len and Bart were villagers, but went back on that by saying something Bart did was suspicious. His explanation does make some sense though, in that he was saying Len and Bart were unlikely to be eliminators strictly from a percentage viewpoint. I tend to just treat everyone as if they're a possible elim rather than saying "this person is more likely village because there's more villagers than eliminators" because that mindset doesn't really get you anywhere.  And to respond to El about how HH not being logical doesn't necessarily make him evil, I understand that, because villagers are illogical all the time, but there's still the fact that his argument(logical or not) was defending both Len and Bart. I've seen eliminators defend both players in an argument like that before, so it was more about suspecting his intent behind his argument than his logic. Also, what makes you say he's more likely village(and please don't say "because statistics" :P)?

Next order of business, my vote. My suspects as of right now are: HH(reasons stated), El(by association with HH and I get nervous when someone says they have a village read on me without giving any explanation), Len(just a small amount, I can't really decide about him, a couple things he's said have made me a little suspicious, but I've had troubles reading him in the past), Drought(mostly would like to see more from him, and since he'll be gone for the most part this Turn, I'm content to give him more time).

Right, time to give more reasoning, then. I'll admit I mostly didn't at the time because I did not feel like digging out my notes and cross-referencing. :P 

Reason for HH: his second and fourth posts in the game both gave me a mild village read on him. Partly his confusion about the number of eliminators (again), partly tone. His reasoning for the unlikelihood of Bart/Len being eliminators reads as decidedly odd but non-indicative for me. And he's acting similarly to how he did in LG31, in my opinion, in which he was village. Nothing terribly strong, obviously, but it was only C1. 

Reason for you: It was particularly your first post that gave me a strong read. The clarificatory question about the eliminators having a kill read as strong village to me, though... thinking about it, that's not as strong an indicator as I'd have thought. Even so, it does seem more like genuine village confusion to me than an eliminator. Apart from that, in your second post you seemed more concerned about Drought than trying to cast suspicion on him for not really saying anything, which seemed village of you, and you've consistently been providing helpful thoughts to the village. That's all I can remember at moment. 

On 3/18/2017 at 5:40 AM, Magestar said:

I'm not sure it was wise for Sart to reveal his partner...  But if his partner really is El, then it's not unlikely she's going to get targeted anyway.  Same with people like Aman and Orlok.

That's part of why I agreed to it - I'm much more likely to be targeted for myself than for my partner. (Not that it matters at this point anyway, apparently. :P

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't recall, from any of the games I've played, a C1 lynch target being anything other than a villager :-P 

Um, Dalinar in AG3. :P Shallan in QF9 was lynched and guilty. That happened I think twice in a row more recently... LG22, we lynched Sart. Magestar in LG26 was lynched D1. QF16, Aman was lynched. It happens. And note that all but the first of those are successful lynches - most eliminators that we try to lynch D1 are unsuccessful, and we can draw information from that later. 

So yes. :P A C1 lynch target can totally be village. 

And by a few I mean a lot. :P

Edited by Sart
Messed up vote count
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1 minute ago, Sart said:

Um, Dalinar in AG3. :P Shallan in QF9 was lynched and guilty. That happened I think twice in a row more recently... LG22, we lynched Sart. Magestar in LG26 was lynched D1. QF16, Aman was lynched. It happens. And note that all but the first of those are successful lynches - most eliminators that we try to lynch D1 are unsuccessful, and we can draw information from that later. 

Conquestor in MR15 as well, although he was on the non-primary elim team.

 

So, who exactly is for claiming roles and who is opposed? I'm for it. Jon was indecisive. Lopen and Stick are against it. @Hemalurgic_Headshot @Magestar @DroughtBringer @Sart @Bartimaeus @Arinian what are your thoughts on whether or not everyone role-claiming is a good idea?

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The bandwagon has suddenly made the stick suspicious. I know the lynch can't be steered away from Sart now, but @Magestar you sound suspiciously neutral in all your posts. Guess I don't have a better reason. Not like this vote's gonna effect the lynch anyway Mage

ooo ninjad by Sart. Those are quite the few words, El :-P

Quote

Um, Dalinar in AG3. :P Shallan in QF9 was lynched and guilty. That happened I think twice in a row more recently... LG22, we lynched Sart. Magestar in LG26 was lynched D1. QF16, Aman was lynched. It happens. And note that all but the first of those are successful lynches - most eliminators that we try to lynch D1 are unsuccessful, and we can draw information from that later. 

In my defence, Dalinar took an annoyingly long time to die, so I forgot. And the rest of those games I wasn't there for, except for LG26. :-P 

@Elenion Mage said he'd consider it in his post earlier

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Sart was going to post his thoughts on the rest of the villagers, but then he saw the sun setting, and the angry mob that was after him. This didn't look good at all. He briefly hollered, "Magestar" as he tried running. Even with his immaculate physique, the crowd was gaining on him. (Note: Sart may or may not be ridiculously out of shape)

Clearly that approach wasn't going to work. Maybe logic would work? "People of this town. I am not evil. Well, I am a Ghostblood, but that's not important right now. Actually, I'm pretty sure most of us are Ghostbloods. However, look at all the people expressing suspicion of me. That's almost the entire town. That means the Sons of Honour are probably wanting me dead. I'm not sure which of you are Sons of Honour, but it's a good lead, right? And well, Magestar has a vote on him, so he must be suspicious right? We can work out the details tomorrow, just please don't kill me."

The crowd seemed slightly moved, but there were still enough votes on him. He knew what he must do. He whipped out his guitar, for one last song. (Warning: vulgar lyrics)

And with that ear-shattering song, Sart probably sealed his fate.

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3 hours ago, Magestar said:

As for lynching Bart...  I feel like both him and Aman are being rather quiet.  I've already given my reasons for not voting on Bart D1, and they largely still apply today.  However, if this trend of quietness continues, I would be open to lynching them simply because I feel like they're dodging.  If they survive to a certain point, I'll have some more reasons to lynch them;  simply because I doubt they'd survive for a long time as villagers, but right now, I'm not feeling it.  

I have seen Bart looking thread but not posting couple times. It can mean nothing cause in other games that he played he was lurking. Still I think that it's not best attitude.

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Conquestor in MR15 as well, although he was on the non-primary elim team.

 

So, who exactly is for claiming roles and who is opposed? I'm for it. Jon was indecisive. Lopen and Stick are against it. @Hemalurgic_Headshot @Magestar @DroughtBringer @Sart @Bartimaeus @Arinian what are your thoughts on whether or not everyone role-claiming is a good idea?

I'm not against claiming roles but I still don't get answer from my partner. 

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I feel that partnerclaiming, like roleclaiming, should not be forced upon a the players as a whole, and should be revealed when they see fit and in a way they think will benefit them. This applies to all games, I think. 

And Sart, I think you are village as you claim. The bandwagon is in full swing now, sorry, but is too late. The countdown is apparently over. So ha, last minute thoughts literally!

Edited by Hemalurgic_Headshot
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Sorry guys, didn't post that the turn was meant to be over 40 minutes ago. There have been no votes since then, and the turn was only 47 hours not 48 (which I understand may have confused some people), so I feel that's not too bad. Please do not post any more in this thread, however.

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Night 2: The Wine in Front of Me

"So... Sart and-or Elbereth died then," Khas said, when there was a lull. "Killed by a democratic vote. Well, I'm glad it was a bit less dull this time."

Given up on making the distinction between them? Or trying to?" Wurum asked with a chuckle.

"Yeah, I don't see the point of wondering about it anymore," Khas shrugged.

"I thought you were a philosopher? Someone who liked to argue?"

"I mean, yes, but... I didn't get that degree to argue with people, but to discuss. I recall what they said to me when I got my degree in Silverlight-"

"Yes, I remember as well," Wurum said dryly, interrupting him. "Something along the lines of 'Who in Damnation are you? Someone call for security,' I believe?"

"Bah, this anecdote is wasted on you," Khas waved his hand, gritting his teeth a little as he let it slide. "Whatever. So how did this person die?"

"How else? I had to kill them."

"You? So they just gave you a name they all came up with, and you..." Khas drew his thumb across his neck and made a sound.

"Well, I was the one in charge of the group," Wurum pointed out. "So it's my responsibility to correct mistakes such as this. For that matter, you hardly want to give the rank and file to go-ahead to take each other out, do you? What if they get it in their heads that dead man's boots is the way to advance?"

"I suppose so," Khas sighed. "So how'd you do it?" he asked, pulling is wine bottle forward and pouring another glass. "Knife in the back? Or across the throat? Paid a couple of thugs to pound the life out of them?" There was a certain bloodthirstiness in his eyes, a small need to know the full details of what had transpired. The Thrill, called on by proxy by the tale of death and violence, was calling him and clouding his mind. He lifted his glass, waiting in anticipation.

"Poison," Wurum said. Khas' wine glass froze on its way to his lips. Wurum chuckled. "It's what I'm known for, after all. Well, in certain circles."

Khas felt his face going white. He suddenly felt quite cold. Out of the corner of his eye, he could see the bottle Wurum was drinking from. He'd given them both their own personal one, complaining that he would have to get up twice as much if they drank from one bottle between them. Was that a ploy to take him out?

"You know, I originally trained to be a surgeon?" Wurum asked, taking a careless sip from his own glass. "But, there was a massive problem with that. No stomach for violence. I see one drop of blood, and that's it. Ripping someone open like that? Even if it is ultimately for their benefit... Organs too, for that matter. Disgusting things, better off hidden away.  But in any case, I trained a healer for some time. And of course, knowing how to heal, it only follows that I know how to hurt. And most herbs and medicines are quite dangerous in large doses."

""You don't say," Khas said, tapping the side of his glass, his face expressionless and glazed over as he tried to analyse every single odd feeling he had at this time, wondering if they were signs of something greater.

"So, I simply poisoned him. It looked suspicious, of course, but less so than an actual violent murder. And most Darkeyes wouldn't know the difference between an attempted poisoning and illness or alcohol poisoning." He looked up, and finally noticed Khas' face. He smiled and chuckled again. "Don't worry." He took Khas' glass and poured a measure into his own glass, knocking it back. "See?"

"...The thought occurs," Khas said, fingers tapping restlessly on the table. "That if you have studied such things, then you know how much of a dosage is needed to kill someone. Therefore, you could drink this perfectly happily, safe in the knowledge that you are not ingesting a lethal dose."

"Fine then," Wurum shrugged and swapped the bottles around. "Does this satisfy you? Your wine bottle contains more than half of its liquid still. Therefore, if there is a lethal dosage within there, either we shall both die, or I shall die. Happy?"

"Yes," Khas said slowly, "unless you knew I was going to say that, and your bottle contains the poison, and now the poisoned bottle of wine is before me."

"But what if I hadn't asked?" Wurum said.

"Well, then the one I had was poisoned, which you now have, and mine is now safe. But if you knew I knew that..."

"I feel you are getting tapped within your own reasoning."

"True!" Khas said with a sigh, flopping back against the back of his chair. "It's that old thing you keep saying, isn't it?"

"Never fight a land war on the Shattered Plains?"

"The other thing."

"Do not act incautiously when confronting little bald, wrinkly, smiling men?"

"The third thing then."

"Oh. Never go against a Heron when death is on the line," Wurum smiled. "Yes. I'm flattered by the amount you're tying your brain in knots here. In any case, we can solve this then." He got up and took down a water jug, which was empty of its contents, and poured both wine bottles into the jug. Then, he poured a glass for them each. "There. Either we both die, or neither of us do. Satisfied?"

"...I suppose that half the amount in the bottle, plus what I have already drunk could be lethal... Or that you could have taken dosages of it in the past, in order to build up an immunity, like that mad old king..."

"You're finding problems now for the sake of it. Clearly you're bored. Shall I tell you about the next night then?"

Khas sighed once more and took the glass in his hand. "Tell away. If I'm going to die, I would rather have a good story to listen to while I expire."

"Very well then..."



Night 2 has begun! PMs are open! Night players may now post in the thread. The Night will end at 10 PM GMT on Monday.

Sart/Senja (Elbereth) was a
Ghostblood!

Sart (4) - Harvey/Hemalurgic_Headshot, Thorot/Jondesu,Brandir Sebarial/Elenion, Revali/TheMightyLopen
Enoemos/Magestar (2) - Sart, Stick
Bart/Bartimaeus (1) - Arvian/Arinian


Notemos Town Hall Clock

 

gra_1490047200.png


Player List

 

Day

  1. Hemalurgic_Headshot (Harvey)
  2. Magestar (Enoemos)
  3. Elenion (Brandir Sebarial)
  4. DroughtBringer (Groot)
  5. Sart (Sart)
  6. TheMightyLopen (Revali)
  7. _Stick_ (Stick)
  8. Bartimaeus (Bart)
  9. Jondesu (Thorot)
  10. Arinian (Arvian)
  11. Drake Marshall (Mestow)

Night

  1. Straw (Dave Davenport)
  2. STINK (Odd Man)
  3. Manukos (Whiler)
  4. Ecthelion III (Amnar the Watcher)
  5. Arraenae (Neiha Solam)
  6. Elbereth (Senja)
  7. Amanuensis (The Soulcaster)
  8. OrlokTsubodai (Locke Tekiel)
  9. Figberts (Hak)
  10. phattemer (Seixa)
  11. Randuir (Battadin)

Dead (day/night)

  1. Mestow/Neiha Solam - Ghostblood
  2. Sart/Senja - Ghostblood
Edited by Alvron
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Analysis to follow, but I thought it important that I get my thoughts on this out quickly.

I want to have a role claim from everyone because then we can coordinate things like scans and vigilante kills, if we have either in the game. If we do have a scan, we can decide as a whole who is most suspicious, and scan them, and then the scanner can reveal the result publicly.  We could have a night vote for vigilante kill, and the anonymous night vigilante could carry it out. As Lopen mentioned, we also could have action accountability for players, so we could confirm that a given player could not have performed the elim kill. Lopen mentioned that the disadvantage is that the elims would know what we have, but considering that we don't even know what we have I think it's a fair trade.

@Elenion, I vehemently disagree with this idea. 
I have two major reasons for doing so.
The first of these is the potential for a mayor to arise. If we, as a village, start directing actions through consensus, including clearing players, then I see it as ridiculously easy for a cleared villager, or group of villagers, to start directing actions, and casting suspicion on players who don't comply.
My second point leads on from this. You remove all autonomy of action from night players. It doesn't matter if they're directed by a cleared mayor, or by the village as a whole. Their right to make their own choices, to play the game as they want to, has been removed, with a threat of death should they not comply. Night players have restricted actions in the game anyway, with half the time available to discuss, and no lynch available to them. If we follow your lead, we would make the use of night players little more than PMing each other. 

I want to play a game where I can make my own choices, and can win or lose based on my interactions with others, and actions I choose to do. I don't want to play a game where I win, but do so because we removed the fun for half the players. These games are not about winning, or losing, but about building a community, and helping everyone enjoy themselves.

It may be a strategically sensible move, Elenion, but it is not one that I will support. I hope that other players, and particularly day players, realise the impact this strategy would have on the game, and on their partners.

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Okay, I won't put up as large a post as I did last night (at least not right away), but there's a couple of small things I'd like to comment on right now.

First, @OrlokTsubodai's questions:

Regarding HH's statistics: In cycle 1, when we've got almost no information, quoting statistics does not strike me as suspicious, because unless someone makes a big mistake, hitting an elim with the lynch is really just luck. It is not terribly useful either, because it doesn't give any new info. Statistics don't really belong in later cycles, unless it's the kind related to bandwagoning or player behavior.

regarding my doubt of Rae: She posted that info with less than 6 hours on the clock. If the elims had somehow gotten information that Aman wouldn't be able to post at all today, than that could have been an attempt to perpetuate that fiction. This was of course unlikely (and I was proven wrong shortly after that), but it was just likely enough that I wanted to see Aman confirm it himself.

Edit: pressed 'post' before being done. some more is to come.

Edit2: Nope, just found a completely innocent explanation for the suspicious thing I'd found. This is it, for now.

Edit3: wait, there was one other thing. @Jondesu, Drake is dead. There's little point to tagging him and asking him to participate in the discussion.

Edited by randuir
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