Long Game 31: A World Without Vin

[Elbereth]

LG31: Night 2 - Proclamation

At sundown, obligators came to every square of Luthadel, and were sent out to every other town, to announce the same message.

 

---

Hemalurgic Headshot was lynched! He was The Lord Ruler!

>Orlok (1): Jondesu 
>Hemalurgic (7): Elenion, Amanuensis, Arinian, Droughtbringer, Hemalurgic, Orlok, Straw

Night 2 has begun. You have 24 hours to send in actions. 

Player List

Spoiler

1. Phattemer - ExisaZinc Ferring, Metallurgist
2. Jondesu - Remart
3. Elenion - Boris
4. Silverblade - Ryth
5. Arinian - Alrin
6. Straw - Tua Mater
7. Hemalurgic Headshot - Mariachi BandLord Ruler
8. Bartimaeus - Kelsier
9. Amanuensis - Neer
10. Ecthelion IIIGold Ferring
11. Magestar - Magister AgemtsarIron Ferring, Metallurgist
12. Droughtbringer - The Great Lord Mister King Count General Doctor President Sir William VII
13. Randuir - DougalCopper Misting, Kandra
14. Stick
15. Szeth Son-Son Mallano - Osuer
16. Joe - Jack Tormander

 

Edited March 17, 2017 by Alvron

[Elenion]

Boris stood at the top of Kredik Shaw, staring out into the mists. The Lord Ruler. Once, the very name would have sent shivers down his spine.  But now here he was, a joint ruler of the entire Final Empire.  Those petty thefts from his shop didn't mean anything, anymore. His life did, however, so Boris went back to work.

 

So HH was TLR and village. And we just lynched him, with me among the primary accusers. Good job, self. That was some real nice detective work you did there. [/sarcasm] @Amanuensis Do you still think Orlok is Skaa? I'm interested in your thoughts on him now that we know HH was village, but before the Skaa have a chance to kill you tonight.  I'm leaning Skaa from my gut, since I was primarily trusting Orlok because he called HH out, but my gut this game is batting .000 and so I want the opinion of a player who is a better analyst than myself.

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

LG31: Night 2 - Proclamation

...

Hemalurgic Headshot was lynched! He was The Lord Ruler!

>>

43 minutes ago, Elenion said:

So HH was TLR and village. And we just lynched him, with me among the primary accusers. Good job, self. That was some real nice detective work you did there. [/sarcasm] @Amanuensis Do you still think Orlok is Skaa? I'm interested in your thoughts on him now that we know HH was village, but before the Skaa have a chance to kill you tonight.  I'm leaning Skaa from my gut, since I was primarily trusting Orlok because he called HH out, but my gut this game is batting .000 and so I want the opinion of a player who is a better analyst than myself.

Yeah... to be honest, logic tells me Orlok is Noble. My theory about Kelsier being able to kill and convert someone in a single night turned out false due to the change El made to the number of abilities that can be used at once, so I no longer have that to point to leverage against his sudden attention on me. Also, considering that he began accusing me after Ecth was killed and not before... yeah, it just doesn't make sense for a Skaa to be the first one to lay accusations down at my feet, let alone accusations that are flawed or not completely thought out. Unless the Skaa in question had a way to survive numerous lynches and vigilante kills, it would be a suicide mission, particularly this early, because as soon as I was killed and revealed Noble, all eyes would be on them. It would just me much safer for the Skaa to claim that they trust me or believe I'm village and then kill me in the night, and I'm pretty sure they plan on trying to convert me anyway, because I'm a better asset on their side than I am a dead villager. Which is exactly why I'm asking that the Steel Misting or Ruin kill me N3. The Skaa might waste a metal trying to get the extremely little information I have before it happens, but if they did, they'd be wasting it because I have nothing of significance to give them. Stick has already openly claimed to be a kandra, and she's the only player I have a PM with. We've chat a little about this game, particularly about the PM Orlok spied on, but otherwise she's only told me the players each of the kandra she knows about contacted on the first day, which I'm going to reveal soon, since those PMs are all now closed.

First, though, I want to apologize to @Hemalurgic_Headshot. My read on you told me you were village, but I decided it was worth it to follow Orlok's lead. If you turned out to be a Skaa, then Orlok would have been proven Noble, and your aversion to voting for Len on Day 1 could have been due to you being teammates. Mostly I feel guilty because my analysis is saying that Orlok is a Noble anyway, so that first reason is basically moot (even if it would have been nice to know for sure), and Len was the second vote on you, so you two being teammates was basically proven false already. Then there's the fact that you're the Lord Ruler. Personally, I didn't think that role was included in this game on top of Ruin and Preservation, so I am both surprised and upset that we got him killed on D2. I have so many questions, now, like if you were the player who attacked Mage or Ecth. I doubt you were the one who killed Ecth because I'm pretty sure you would have claimed it to convince people not to vote for you, but if you did kill Mage, that could tell us a lot regarding the game's distribution. I can only guess now that you did not kill Mage, however, because you never expressed suspicions towards him, and I don't think you're the type of player to use a one-time kill on someone else at the very start of the game. Still, given how useful your role is for the village (basically our version of Kelsier), I would have been happy if you claimed TLR at some point to hopefully diffuse the votes off you and onto someone else.

I'm going to end this post here, take a break to eat dinner, then come back to look closer at the votes, and maybe finally get to analyzing the three players I was most suspicious of before Orlok distracted me last turn. This is probably the last turn I will be alive or uncompromised, unless the Skaa decide to not waste their actions on me and let me get killed by the village for living to long, so I will do my best to make sure everything I need to say gets said.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Silverblade5]

Do to time constraints, I will have to drop from this game. Coinshots take not. I currently have three vials of iron. If anyone wants them, contact me through a kandra.

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Silverblade5 said:

Do to time constraints, I will have to drop from this game. Coinshots take not. I currently have three vials of iron. If anyone wants them, contact me through a kandra.

:[

@Elbereth, any chance of pinch hitters this game? I should have asked earlier, considering the situation with Szeth, but this only reminded me. I'm not sure how much has been revealed in the Spec Doc, but I noticed Lopen is back from his BotW binge, so maybe he'd be up for it? I'd personally prefer pinch hitters than kills being wasted on inactives

[Elbereth]

The spec and dead docs are combined for this game, so no chance of pinchhitters there. I will look around, but can't promise anything. 

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

The spec and dead docs are combined for this game, so no chance of pinchhitters there. I will look around, but can't promise anything. 

Of course it is  thank you

---

To start this post off, I want to talk about two things. First, what I have learned about the kandra PMs on Day One, and second, the lynch on Day One.

Joe and Stick have referenced some of these details in the thread, but my goal is to paint a clearer picture for everybody so we can consider it thoroughly and miss no details. As we all know, Rand was a Noble Kandra. Joe has claimed to be a Kandra, as well as Stick. On Day One, Rand created PMs with Mage and Len. Joe created PMs with Rand and Stick. Stick created a PM with only Rand. @Elenion, @A Joe in the Bush and @_Stick_, someone may want to ask for confirmation, so if you don't mind, can you three please confirm this to be true.

If Stick knowing who Rand was in contact with is any indication, I suspect that Joe did as well. Beyond that, no one else should be aware of this information until now. Why is that significant? Well, two reasons, really. First, I had made an assumption the previous turn that Mage was hit twice, once by the eliminators, once by a Noble Coinshot, rather than double-tapped to get around his self-protection granted by his Iron. It is now, however, a possibility that Mage told his role to Rand, and Rand told Mage's role to someone else. That leaves only three options: Elenion, Joe, and Stick. However, that fails to explain the kill made on Rand, unless the Skaa have a Steel Misting on their team in addition to Kelsier, which I doubt, given the rules explicitly state that all Mistings begin with three vials. If there was a possibility of a Skaa Steel Misting starting with one, I would put it as a tentative maybe, unless the Nobles have a lot more protection than the deaths so far have implied.

If I do continue to assume that Mage was hit by a rogue Coinshot (or potentially HH), it's still possible that the Skaa targeted Rand and Mage because they were aware the two were in contact. I have been wrong about coincidences in the past, but both an unclaimed Kandra and one of the Nobles he was in contact with being killed at once by the Skaa accidently? Those odds are not very high.

For a second, let's contemplate what it would mean if it were an accident. Rand and Mage would have been chosen for entirely separate reasons. Perhaps because they were onto something, but more likely than not, because their deaths would give us less information, rather than more, while simultaneously removing two active Nobles. I could definitely see that logic working for Rand, especially considering Ecth was a Skaa. For those of you not aware, Ecth and Rand were both eliminators in LG30, Rand's first game, so it's completely possible Ecth suggested they remove Rand sooner rather than later, given how well he did.

But why Mage?

Mage had voted for Len before changing his vote to Phatt. Mage was also voted on by Stick. Were the Skaa trying to frame one of those two? Perhaps. Thing is, if I'm not mistaken, there were a few players (including myself) who were having doubts about Mage's innocence. Without additional information, it would have been wiser to let Mage continue to live and accrue suspicion, with the intention of pushing towards him becoming a lynch target. It wouldn't be the first time that happened, but I would say there's about a 2 in 3 chance that Mage was deemed worth killing before it could get to that.

Hence why I doubt Mage's death was a mere coincidence.

It wasn't Rand who killed him, so there are only three players who could have had additional information about Mage at that time.

So, let's start with Len. He's the most obvious choice, but that depends heavily on what Rand told him. Personally, I don't think Skaa!Len would have killed Mage off unless he was certain he could get away with it. That means that Rand would have had to inform Len who the other player he contacted was while also never mentioning that Joe and Stick PM'd him. If Len knew Rand was in contact with Mage, and knew that Rand could not pass that information on to anyone else, than he could safely remove a Noble kandra from the game on top of the only other player who knew, before people could figure out he was implicit. There is a slight problem to this theory, however. Len had mentioned in thread on Day One that a kandra had PM'd him. I remember that only because I commented on it. Is it possible he forgot about that detail when the night turn came? Maybe. Is it possible that he didn't care about that detail, in hopes of him being public about having been contacted would get him some brownie points, because why would a Skaa ever admit to having a PM with a kandra right before he died? Definitely. That second point could even be accurate, if we assume he was positive that no other player knew that Mage was Rand's other contact. Unfortunately, this is muddled up by the fact that Joe claimed to have sent PMs not to one, but two kandra. If I was Len and I saw that, regardless of alignment, I would have immediately asked Rand if he was one of them. Even if Rand said no, I would assume he was withholding information due to him not having a reason to trust me, and therefore assume the worst.

Next, let's talk about Joe. I am somewhat biased towards him because since Day One I have been suspicious of him. Nothing he has said or done recently has made me think otherwise, but I also planned on doing a thorough analysis of his posts to get a better read on him, which I will do later today. Disregarding that, let's look at him when only considering The Case of the Three Kandra; Two Murders in One Night. If Rand told Stick the two players he PM'd, I can only assume that he told Joe as well. There's a chance that Rand trusted Stick more than Joe, and thus gave her more information, but judging by the posts in Day One, I see the opposite being true. However, PMs tend to be an entirely different dynamic than interactions in thread, so it's possible they talked enough that Rand found himself more trusting of her than Joe. Fortunately, we don't need to ask many questions about what Joe asked Rand about, because our resident Tin Ferring @OrlokTsubodai spied on Joe. Honestly, I find it more than a little odd that you only mentioned Joe's PMs with Stick (let alone left out details to fit your Ruin theory). Do you mind sharing with us what Joe said to Rand? In full?

As for Stick... she's been pretty free with giving me this information. I would say it's because she trusts me, but it's hard to tell. There are a few possibilities, other than her being a trusting Noble, such as her being a Skaa and lying to me about the PMs Rand made to protect her or implicate Len, or her being a Skaa with nothing to do with the situation, who hopes to gain my trust so that I don't scrutinize her as much. If it's the latter of those two, well then I hate to break it to you Stick, but until I see a GM say a player's name in green, I will never believe in them completely. I will always question people's motives and reevaluate my stances on them based on hard evidence revealed in the write ups and soft information I reap either from the thread or PMs. That being said, for now, I'm taking your side over Len and Joe.

Once Orlok responds, I'll think about this more. But until then, @Arinian, @Jondesu, @DroughtBringer, @Straw, @Bartimaeus. What are your first thoughts on this situation?

As an aside, tagging the players that are still playing this game has made me realize that with Szeth and Silver inactive, there's only ten players left. If both the Skaa and Ruin kill tonight, that number will quickly become 8. I can see now why you were so insistent on making the right lynch, Orlok, even though HH was a bad call.

Now, onto the second thing I wanted to bring up: the Day One lynch.

 

(1) Magestar: _Stick_, 

(10) phattemer: Ecthelion III, Amanuensis, A Joe in a Bush, randuir, Arinian, Elenion, Jondesu, Magestar, phattemer, DroughtBringer, 

(1) Elenion: OrlokTsubodai,

(5) No-one: Silverblade5, Straw, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Bartimaeus, Szeth Son-Son Mallano, 

 

I have taken the liberty to color all of the players who have died between then and now, in addition to myself. Whether or not Szeth is a Skaa is impossible to tell, given he's never been online, but with SB backing out and Bartimaeus' low activity, I will trust that they are both Nobles, and disregard them when considering how close we are to loss or victory. Straw is a hard player to pin any one alignment, as his play style is a tad chaotic and his activity is rarely consistent. I will note that his vote this cycle on HH was very weird. Note that weird does not mean suspicious, when referring to Straw, since weird is normal for him, and something as blatant as "Easy choice for me" is more likely the result of a villager not considering the implications of their wording rather than an eliminator trying to mess with us or not caring what happens next.

I've already advocated that Orlok is, more likely than not, a Noble due to his confrontation of me. However, I find him leaving out details of Joe's PM with Stick and never mentioning the one Joe had with Rand as something that needs further attention and explanation.

Stick I am willing to trust for now, however that may change after some discussion regarding TCotTK:TMiON. Droughtbringer's frustration over players voting for themselves seems genuine to me, but otherwise his votes this game have not been particularly helpful, and could point to him being a Skaa. I can understand his frustration, but after dealing with Stink the many times he's voted for himself or even outright committed suicide despite being a villager, I'm numb to that sort of thing now. Granted, he could be a Skaa pretending? But I'm getting the same impression I had from HH, and my gut was right about our beloved Lord Ruler, so I will trust it regarding Drought for now.

That leaves A Joe in a Bush, Arinian, Elenion, and Jondesu. If the remaining Skaa are all active, these are the four I would bet my life (well, Neer's life, not mine...) on being the Skaa. Two of these four players I have also determined to be a possible Ruin candidate, but I'm less worried about the Shard than I am the Skaa. For now, I see this game as a race not just against the Skaa, but Ruin as well. I won't bother going out of my way to kill him, just like I'm not even going to bother trying to figure out who Preservation, as I have a feeling it's going to depend way too much on luck, anyway, and I much prefer games of skill than chance.

So before this turn ends, I am going to make a thorough post on each of these four players, analyzing everything that they have said and done so far, with hopes of figuring them out before they can either kill or convert me tonight. I will take a short break, then begin with Arinian and Jondesu, I think, since they have considerably less content and I would like to hear what Orlok can tell me about Joe's PM with Rand.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Elenion]

I can confirm that Rand indeed sent me a PM C1. Rand was actually the one who I told my suspicions about Orlok to back when I was sitting on them D1.

 Something that you'll want to know, Aman, is that Rand asked me to tell all Kandra that I know that Rand was a Kandra looking to coordinate PMs with others. I passed the message on to the one other Kandra that PMed me C1, a Kandra that is yet unclaimed. I don't want to out who they are to the thread, but if they choose to claim they can confirm that I passed the message on to them, with Rand's name explicitly stated as the Kandra looking to coordinate.  This unnamed Kandra told me not to tell their identity to Rand, but that they'd consider PMing him D2 if they thought that coordination would be wise.  Rand never learned this unclaimed Kandra's identity, but this unclaimed Kandra knew about Rand's.

 As for who knew what in the Rand PM, we were both frank with one another. Rand had a good gut read on me, or at least he said he did in the PM and publicly, and after Joe suggested in-thread that Kandra tell each of their contacts the name of the other Rand told me that Mage was his other contact, citing Joe. Rand also told me that he had talked to Joe, but he did that a little later. Maybe Joe didn't PM him right away, maybe Rand didn't want to reveal Joe's role, maybe Rand wasn't playing completely straight with me.  We might never know.  When Rand first told me that Mage was his other contact, I told Rand that I had been contacted by another player, but for information security reasons I didn't give him the identity of the still unclaimed Kandra. I will admit that I didn't trust him nearly as much as I told him I did.

I know this post is a mess, but I've got Hawaii Five-O to get back to.

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I can confirm that Rand indeed sent me a PM C1. Rand was actually the one who I told my suspicions about Orlok to back when I was sitting on them D1.

Something that you'll want to know, Aman, is that Rand asked me to tell all Kandra that I know that Rand was a Kandra looking to coordinate PMs with others. I passed the message on to the one other Kandra that PMed me C1, a Kandra that is yet unclaimed. I don't want to out who they are to the thread, but if they choose to claim they can confirm that I passed the message on to them, with Rand's name explicitly stated as the Kandra looking to coordinate.  This unnamed Kandra told me not to tell their identity to Rand, but that they'd consider PMing him D2 if they thought that coordination would be wise.  Rand never learned this unclaimed Kandra's identity, but this unclaimed Kandra knew about Rand's.

As for who knew what in the Rand PM, we were both frank with one another. Rand had a good gut read on me, or at least he said he did in the PM and publicly, and after Joe suggested in-thread that Kandra tell each of their contacts the name of the other Rand told me that Mage was his other contact, citing Joe. Rand also told me that he had talked to Joe, but he did that a little later. Maybe Joe didn't PM him right away, maybe Rand didn't want to reveal Joe's role, maybe Rand wasn't playing completely straight with me.  We might never know.  When Rand first told me that Mage was his other contact, I told Rand that I had been contacted by another player, but for information security reasons I didn't give him the identity of the still unclaimed Kandra. I will admit that I didn't trust him nearly as much as I told him I did.

I know this post is a mess, but I've got Hawaii Five-O to get back to.

Okay. So the Fourth Kandra knew that Rand was a Kandra, but Rand didn't know his identity. Did you tell the Fourth Kandra that Rand was also in contact with Mage?

[Jondesu]

@Amanuensis, I'm the kandra that Elenion passed the message to (I wasn't planning to reveal my role, but at this point I think it'll probably help, considering the discussion around this).  I will confirm that I was told that Rand was a kandra and looking to coordinate with other kandra.  I didn't know that Rand was in contact with Mage, however (@Elenion can back that up, for his PM with me). Also, I hate to be low-active, but my wife is sick and I'm going to be busy probably over the next day or two at least, so while I'll probably check the thread when I can, don't expect a lot of posts from me.

[Amanuensis]

8 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

@Amanuensis, I'm the kandra that Elenion passed the message to (I wasn't planning to reveal my role, but at this point I think it'll probably help, considering the discussion around this).  I will confirm that I was told that Rand was a kandra and looking to coordinate with other kandra.  I didn't know that Rand was in contact with Mage, however (@Elenion can back that up, for his PM with me). Also, I hate to be low-active, but my wife is sick and I'm going to be busy probably over the next day or two at least, so while I'll probably check the thread when I can, don't expect a lot of posts from me.

Thank you for telling me this. It allows us to consider things more thoroughly. Honestly, I'm a little glad the fourth kandra is you and I found out when I did, since it means I won't have to reevaluate any other players.

@Elbereth, could Kelsier be a Kandra or a Metallurgist, too?

[Elbereth]

Kandra and Metallurgist can both stack with any role, including Kelsier. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by Elbereth

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Elbereth said:

Kandra and Metallurgist can all stack with any role, including Kelsier. 

That was not the answer I was hoping for. But thank you anyway

[Elenion]

I can corroborate Jon's account of the PM.

[Amanuensis]

ARINIAN

• Arinian's first post was the 25th in the game, approximately 17 hours after the write up was posted. The only thing he really comments on is Orlok's vote on Len (which occurred 16 posts earlier / nearly twelve hours before Arinian's post) due to Len's suggestion of a strict contribution crusade. Arinian agrees with Orlok's perspective on the Contribution Crusade, but says that many players advocate lynching inactives / utilize poke votes on the first day of most games, so he doesn't think it says anything about Len's alignment.
  • My first thought when looking at this post is how odd the timing is. Why did it take so long for Arinian to post it, considering that it only addressed one post of 24? To be fair, it's not like I haven't gone a long time without checking a LG, depending on how I feel or what I'm doing, however 17 hours is a lot of time, considering that the average person sleeps for 6 and work for 8. It depends a lot on his time zone and his life style, but it's possible Arinian could have been distracted with a doc. It's also possible that this was an indirect defense for Elenion, or perhaps another player who was acting similar, in addition to a specific distancing attempt with Orlok. Conspiracy theories aside, my read of tone this post is genuine. I could see Arinian just trying to be a reasonable Noble, especially since I also was of the opinion that the vote on Len, then, was unnecessary.
• Arinian's second and third posts purely RP. His fourth post was the first time he participated in any discussion since his first (16 hours later), and it came only after I pinged every player in the game asking their opinions on Phattemer and those who were voting for him. He said he usually doubts suspicious actions mean a player is evil, so that while Phatt said a couple things that sound suspicious, he's seen similar mistakes from other players. He references the Spy game when I lynched Stick alongside him because I thought it was weird that she voted on an eliminator the same turn he died of inactivity (spoiler alert: Stick wasn't an eliminator) but he voted on Phatt because he had no other leads. Also said he was suspicious of Stick (but he always says that).
  • While I'm always happy to see players RP, 16 hours, again, is a long time not to say anything relevant to the game. This suggests he is consistently holding back thoughts, which more often than not, is alignment indicative. That is one of the three contributing factors that led me to believe Ecth was a Skaa, after all, and after seeing how active Arinian was in my game as a villager, it's easy to notice a difference. I will talk more about this later, however, because I bring it up in thread at one point, and he responds. That being said, in the Spy game that he mentions, he was a villager as well and, for most of the game, willing to follow my lead on things. He ended up turning against me in the end, but fortunately a coin flip landed in mine (and the villages) favor, so we still won. That, at least, is consistent with his play style. However, it is important to note that Arinian was the Sixth vote on Phatt, only 12 minutes after Headshot placed the Fifth. This puts him at the very edge of the "bandwagon zone" so it's possible Ecth told him to cement the village's decision by agreeing with me.
• Arinian's fifth post was him responding of a question Orlok asked him. Specifically, why he was suspicious of Stick (for not being suspicious). Arinian explains that every game before this one, he has found Stick suspicious off that bat, but for some reason he didn't now. In those games, Stick was also a villager, so he thinks it's possible the difference in his impression is due to her changing alignments. That, however, has changed since his initial comments on Stick, as recently she's made posts that have given him the same feeling he's had before. Ultimately he explains that he decided to vote for Phatt because he has had barely any interactions with him in the past. so he does not know if the suspicion he reads from Phatt's comments are usual to him, like with Stick.
  • No new information here, really. I was going to suggest the possibility that his change in his read of Stick as because he's an eliminator this game, but because he says in the same post that the old feeling about Stick is back, it doesn't make much sense for him to reconsider his opinions of her. Unless he was afraid of Orlok making a larger deal about it (which I doubt, considering how little focus Orlok put on it), I believe this may point to him being a Noble, as why would a Skaa openly reevaluate their opinion of another player without the presentation of new evidence or a defense?
• Arinian's sixth post is nearly 18 hours after N1 begins. He responds to a player analysis post by Jondesu, in which he questions Arinian's suspicions of Stick and says he's slightly leaning towards Arinian being evil. He tries to thoroughly explain his thoughts on Stick by referencing AG3 and LG30, where Rae was considered suspicious on both games and yet was a villager. In the same post he also responds to my own mention of him in my large analysis post that night, in which I point out how less invovled he is compared to LG30, which made me debate whether or not he's holding back or building up.
  • He says if I look back at other games he's been in, he's never been more active in those than he is in this one now, which is fair. That matches our interactions in QF21 (the Spy game) and what little I remember of AG3 and LG28. As for LG30, he says it was an exception because he wanted to try a different play style, but due to the events of that game (he was ruled out as suspicious by his fellow villagers) he was frustrated that his additional efforts only met him with more resistance, and his inevitable death. In this game he says he doesn't have many suspicious or any evidence to provide. He does, however, say he's got bad gut reads on three players. Rand, Mage and Silver. At the start of the next turn, we found out that Rand and Mage are both villagers. I also now have reason to believe that Silver is a Noble, as I would hope that being a Skaa would encourage him to, at the very least, continue placing actions. That makes a total of three Nobles that Arinian has bad gut reads on, which could indicate that he's a Skaa. On the other hand, the fact that he said this and both Rand and Mage were killed could mean that the Skaa were trying to frame him. I could see this going either way.
• Arinian's seventh post was 17 hours after D2 was post, and its a follow up to Drought's post about why I was still alive, as well as a response to me asking if he was Kelsier, and some more thoughts on the players. He points out that the reasons Drought listed regarding me aren't the only possibilities, but that he thinks it's a waste of time to talk about. He also comments on from what he's seen, lynching inactives barely ends up helping the village in the end, as it inevitably prevents them from gaining much information, and thus allows the eliminators more time to further their goals. He says that regardless of his alignment, Drought's activity doesn't change very much so he can't determine anything through that, but he does point out that his ideas are not helpful. In response to me he denies being Kelsier, as I expect anyone would. As for his thoughts on the remaining players, he remains suspicious of Stick but decides to ignore her, and replaces Rand, Mage and Silver with Joe, Orlok and maybe Drought. Joe because of him revealing to be a kandra, Orlok because he asked a lot of questions, which could be a way for an eliminator to disguise intent, as well as the fact no one seemed to be doubting him despite him pushing the lynch onto HH, who Arinian determined to be an easy target, and a bad gut read. The reasons for Drought were mentioned earlier, but he also expresses paranoia about the lurkers, Bart and Straw, as well as a bad gut read on Jon.
  • Honestly, I'm a little put off that Arinian did not want to "waste time" trying to figure out why I was still alive. Considering the fact that in AG3, Wilson pulled off a WGG on Night One and was never looked at again (the eliminators ended up winning partly because of it) I think he's underestimating what can be learned discussing things like that. Regardless, I do agree with his stance on lynching inactives, especially in retrospect. Besides Len and myself, he's basically cast doubt on every single player at this point, which is starting to make me suspect that the two of them may be teammates, or that Arinian is a lone Skaa trying to seem like a villager by making everyone look bad.
• Arinian's eighth post comes, again, only after I ping him, asking for his opinions on HH, Orlok and myself. He points out that HH seems particularly nervous about the lynch as opposed to AG3 where he reacted calmly to the accusations on him. Coupled with Orlok pointing out that HH's comment about LGs, he decides to vote for him. In regards to Orlok, he takes my side in that Orloks points against me were unfounded. He does not the sense that maybe Orlok was too eager in accusing me, which makes him think Orlok wouldn't be a Skaa, because eliminators are usually more careful. In contrast, after I refuted Orlok's points, Arinian says it looks like he accepts the loss and tries to redirect attention back to HH. Before voting on HH, it's important to note that he says if HH turns out to be a Noble, Orlok can be attacked by a vigilante.
  • Nothing Arinian says here isn't true. HH being more concerned about the lynch was likely a result of his role, as we now know. I also can't fault him for agreeing with HH's slip up about the pacing of Long Games, even if I bought his explanation. After reading his views on Orlok, I can't help but agree. However, it bothers me that he mentions a vigilante killing Orlok if HH turns out to be a villager. It gives me a sense that he knew the results of the lynch already and was hoping to take down another villager in the aftermath. This reminds me a lot of a comment Elenion made earlier about either one of Orlok and me just having to be Spiked. I challenged that by asking why Orlok and I can't possibly both be Nobles, and Elenion never answered, which gives me the same vibe I got from Ecth when he avoided my question about Phatt on Day One. Considering that, I would not be surprised if Arinian and Elenion were the remaining Skaa, and their end game plan was to kill me tonight and get Orlok killed by a vigilante, or organize a lynch on Orlok tomorrow without me to refute it. This theory is a bit of a stretch, but considering other information, seems possible.
• Arinian's ninth post is a response to something I mentioned about me trusting that Stick is not Ruin because my PM with her has kandra in the title. He says he has a PM with a player but the title doesn't have kandra in it, and is wondering if there was some kind of error somewhere.
  • This is a reasonable subject to want clarification on regardless of alignment. If he is a Noble, he could just be wondering if he's in contact with Ruin. If he's a Skaa, he could have the intention of casting doubt on Stick or the player he's in contact with, in order to get another Noble killed. Honestly, it's hard to tell, so I won't think about it too much.
• Arinian's tenth and most recent post this game is a short one, responding to HH when he placed a vote on himself. He essentially just expresses frustration with the mindset.
  • Like his previous post, not a lot of content and not very indicative of alignment. Normally I don't expect eliminators to make a big deal about this sort of thing, which is a part of the reason why I have Drought on my tentative trust list, but I'm not sure if I've mentioned that before this turn, so it's possible that Arinian picked up on that and is using it to nudge my read on him towards Noble. Unlike him, I have a lot more than ten posts in this game so I would much rather not go back and check to make sure, but I might do so anyway because it could be a helpful clue for me.

Looking at the length of this I can only think about how Arinian is the player I intend to analyze with the least content so far. I have a feeling I'll be working on analysis far past my bed time today, as I want to leave the village with as much information as I can in case I die or get converted. Ah well. Break time!

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Arinian]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

My first thought when looking at this post is how odd the timing is. Why did it take so long for Arinian to post it, considering that it only addressed one post of 24? To be fair, it's not like I haven't gone a long time without checking a LG, depending on how I feel or what I'm doing, however 17 hours is a lot of time, considering that the average person sleeps for 6 and work for 8. It depends a lot on his time zone and his life style, but it's possible Arinian could have been distracted with a doc. It's also possible that this was an indirect defense for Elenion, or perhaps another player who was acting similar, in addition to a specific distancing attempt with Orlok. Conspiracy theories aside, my read of tone this post is genuine. I could see Arinian just trying to be a reasonable Noble, especially since I also was of the opinion that the vote on Len, then, was unnecessary.

Rollover is 2 AM for me. Usually I go sleep at 2-3 AM, waking up on 11 AM, in 1:20 PM I should be in University and then 5-6(sometimes wasting less time sometimes more *shrug*) hours in the same University. So looks like 17 hours.

I can post between 11 AM and 1:20 PM (like I'm doing now) but I should read all this walls of text. Also I wasting some time to eat something (stupid I who needs food pfff) and other things blah blah blah.

Also normal for human organism to sleep 8 hours so I think you are alien Aman.

And I'm gone 

[Amanuensis]

 

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

Also normal for human organism to sleep 8 hours so I think you are alien Aman.

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

Rollover is 2 AM for me. Usually I go sleep at 2-3 AM, waking up on 11 AM, in 1:20 PM I should be in University and then 5-6(sometimes wasting less time sometimes more *shrug*) hours in the same University. So looks like 17 hours.

I can post between 11 AM and 1:20 PM (like I'm doing now) but I should read all this walls of text. Also I wasting some time to eat something (stupid I who needs food pfff) and other things blah blah blah.

Good to know, if only because it's nice to be aware of other player's situations, so we can be more accommodating. But yeah, I'm not too concerned about that, as it's not really a good reason to explicitly suspect a player, but it's good to keep it in mind when looking at other details. Honestly I'm not terribly suspicious of you, however, there is a potential for you to be a Skaa, especially if Len turns out to be one.

Unfortunately, due to work, I haven't even been able to start my second analysis post, and it looks like I'm going to have to stay past opening this morning, therefore I'm not sure if I'll be able to hit all four analysis posts like I wanted. As a result, I looked through Jondesu's posts and decided that he seems genuine enough. There's a few things that didn't sit 100% right for me, such as his opinion of Ecth before he died (can be found in his analysis post on N1), but I'll take a leap of faith now. One thing I feel I should ask, however, is people's opinion on his reveal of being a kandra. @Elenion, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, @A Joe in the Bush, @OrlokTsubodai: are you more suspicious of Jon or less, given the fact that he took this long to reveal being a kandra? Do you count it as a point for him that he admitted it when I brought up the deaths of Rand and Mage? Or do you see that as a strike against him? Furthermore, do you think that the Skaa began the game with a kandra? If so, can you order them for me from the one you're most suspicious of to the least? Thank you.

If I can't get two more analysis posts done, I think I'll do Len's before I do Joe's, because with Len I feel there's more evidence against him. I feel that if Joe was a Skaa he would have tried to capitalize a little bit more on the back-and-forth between Orlok and I, which I can see both Len and Arin doing subtly (Len saying absolutely one of us had to be evil, which I asked about and he ignored, and Arin saying that if HH is a Noble, the Coinshot can kill Orlok tonight, which I think is unnecessary as plenty of villagers begin mislynches on their own). 

Right now, barring further responses and analysis, I would suggest Len be killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If he's a Skaa, I would look into removing Arin shortly after, and if Arin proves a false lead, then I'd guess the final Skaa would be Joe, Jon or Stick. Unfortunately I need more information to narrow that down any further.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Elenion]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I challenged that by asking why Orlok and I can't possibly both be Nobles, and Elenion never answered

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

which I asked about and he ignored

For all of the analysis you've done on my posts, I think you missed

Quote

"I guess both Aman and Orlok could be Skaa, but I don't think it would be wise to attempt a bussing right after Ecth got murked. All logic goes against it."

me, N1, 16 hours ago

Admittedly I misread what you said, but I attempted to respond to it in my first post after you brought it up. That's hardly never answering.

I've gotta get to school, where I don't have WiFi or data. I should be back before turnover, barring homework overload, car troubles, or alien invasion.

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

For all of the analysis you've done on my posts, I think you missed

Admittedly I misread what you said, but I attempted to respond to it in my first post after you brought it up. That's hardly never answering 

I saw that, and stand by my statement  but I'll keep in mind that you misread what I asked 

[A Joe in the Bush]

I've got less than 20 minutes before Class starts, but here's the entire post by post summary of My PM with Rand.

I Quote this post, and just give a generic greeting. "hey, what's happening? Any suspicions or trusts? Any suggestions for who else i should contact?"

He responds:
He agrees with my suspicions on phatt and stick, the ones i outlined in my first real post, and he said he was suspicious of Aman for no reason other than Aman's skill level. Then he said to contact whoever i wanted, and that he was in contact with Mage and Elenion, revealing he was a Kandra.

I respond by telling him that i had contacted Stick at the same time as him, and that stick recommended i contact phatt

Randuir reveals that stick contacted him, and that stick is a kandra (I already knew)

I reveal i already knew that.

Randuir suggests a PM chain for Cycle 2, in order to keep information passing.

I'm willing to do it

Randuir says he'll contact stick next cycle, stick will contact me, and i will contact him, and we'll all put a pm elsewhere as well. then he says that i should arrange protection for myself, since me, aman and Orlok are the most probable victims, and that he intends to contact Aman cycle 2.

Now, gotta go take finals. Wish me luck!

[Amanuensis]

Just now, A Joe in the Bush said:

 

Now, gotta go take finals. Wish me luck!

Luck!

I'll read your post in a minute. Sadly I'm in the middle of something else.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Arinian]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Luck!

I'll read your post in a minute. Sadly I'm in the middle of something else.

I still didn't get answer on "Kandra in title of PM". Is it true or you just failed in phrasing?

Question to GMs.

Can kandra or Ruin put whatever they want in title of PM? Or is was GMs fault with Aman's PM? Or he just liar(I think there no need in this question cause if I will get answers on other two this one will be obvious, but still it's here *shrug*)?

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Arinian said:

 

 

I still didn't get answer on "Kandra in title of PM". Is it true or you just failed in phrasing?

Question to GMs.

Can kandra or Ruin put whatever they want in title of PM? Or is was GMs fault with Aman's PM? Or he just liar(I think there no need in this question cause if I will get answers on other two this one will be obvious, but still it's here *shrug*)?

Stick wrote it in herself. In retrospect, I think that she probably shouldn't have. I'm assuming that the GMs will say that the title of the PM doesn't prove anything, which they should, but I still heavily doubt Stick would have done that if she was Ruin. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Joe and Stick have referenced some of these details in the thread, but my goal is to paint a clearer picture for everybody so we can consider it thoroughly and miss no details. As we all know, Rand was a Noble Kandra. Joe has claimed to be a Kandra, as well as Stick. On Day One, Rand created PMs with Mage and Len. Joe created PMs with Rand and Stick. Stick created a PM with only Rand. @Elenion, @A Joe in the Bush and @_Stick_, someone may want to ask for confirmation, so if you don't mind, can you three please confirm this to be true.

Can confirm that ^

14 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If Stick knowing who Rand was in contact with is any indication, I suspect that Joe did as well. Beyond that, no one else should be aware of this information until now. Why is that significant? Well, two reasons, really. First, I had made an assumption the previous turn that Mage was hit twice, once by the eliminators, once by a Noble Coinshot, rather than double-tapped to get around his self-protection granted by his Iron. It is now, however, a possibility that Mage told his role to Rand, and Rand told Mage's role to someone else. That leaves only three options: Elenion, Joe, and Stick. However, that fails to explain the kill made on Rand, unless the Skaa have a Steel Misting on their team in addition to Kelsier, which I doubt, given the rules explicitly state that all Mistings begin with three vials. If there was a possibility of a Skaa Steel Misting starting with one, I would put it as a tentative maybe, unless the Nobles have a lot more protection than the deaths so far have implied.

 

Rand did not tell me Mage's role

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

 @Elenion, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, @A Joe in the Bush, @OrlokTsubodai: are you more suspicious of Jon or less, given the fact that he took this long to reveal being a kandra? Do you count it as a point for him that he admitted it when I brought up the deaths of Rand and Mage? Or do you see that as a strike against him? Furthermore, do you think that the Skaa began the game with a kandra? If so, can you order them for me from the one you're most suspicious of to the least? Thank you.

Well, I know for a fact that there are other Kandra who haven't revealed themselves to the thread yet. Jondesu revealing his role doesn't seem like anything suspicion-worthy to me.  And yes, I do think that the Skaa began the game with a Kandra. The living Kandra: Me, Joe, Jondesu & [Redacted] --> they can reveal themselves if they want to. I'm not really suspicious enough of any of them, though I'm almost certain that the skaa have a Kandra among them - it makes sense. Why wouldn't they?

*ninja'd by arinian

*starts typing response 

*ninja'd by Aman

*stops typing response 

12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Stick wrote it in herself. In retrospect, I think that she probably shouldn't have. I'm assuming that the GMs will say that the title of the PM doesn't prove anything, which they should, but I still heavily doubt Stick would have done that if she was Ruin. 

I'm not a GM, but I'm pretty sure the title doesn't prove anything. I don't see why I'd not put Kandra in the title and pretend to be Ruin. That'd just make te real Ruin super suspicious of me if we were to meet in a PM

[Arinian]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm not a GM, but I'm pretty sure the title doesn't prove anything. I don't see why I'd not put Kandra in the title and pretend to be Ruin. That'd just make te real Ruin super suspicious of me if we were to meet in a PM

Oh I see why put Kandra in title:

1)If you are want to gain trust. (this doubtful cause kandra can be elim but still you many times did things that looks not logical for me)

2)If you are Ruin.