Long Game 31: A World Without Vin

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Amanuensis, it's 6:40am, and I'll answer your posts more substantively later, when I can. For now, let me clarify. I meant to say Szeth, not Bart when discussing your auppprt for an inactive today, which you did indicate a degree of support for - "Fair enough. I might join you, but I'll hold off for now".

Similarly, for the sale of clarity, I would point to my saying you were the third vote on Elenion as a typo. I thought were instead the third vote on Phattemer.. This I will admit is wrong, and a conclusion drawn from spending too long starting at a screen. You may safely ignore the conjecture on 3rd voting.

On sleep, Aman, that's really interesting. You see, the thread was posted a time midnight my time, and at 8:38am, I have a screenshot that showed you'd been active seven hours ago, meaning you'd been active at least 30 minutes after my post, which I attach. Why are you now saying you were not active at that time?

Finally, what are your thoughts on Headshot. I think he's pretty uncontroversially evil. I admit, I may well be wrong on you, but with a game as short as I believe it to be, did not want to preclude me from posting my suspicions. I do find it suspicious that you don't mention my points against Headshot once - I presume you must believe him to be innocent, rather than throwing him under the bus. How do you then explain his slip ups, and actions?

Edited March 15, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai
More typos. >>

[Elbereth]

48 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

We have very good reason to believe that Kelsier used his Steel last night. I had assumed people could only use one before, but Conq's answer above confirms that players can use two actions a cycle. To make sure this hasn't changed, @Elbereth, can you confirm it's possible that Kelsier could attack a player and convert another in a single night?

Sorry - no, that is not possible. I interpreted the second part of that to mean one role action per person. The latter clarification takes precedence. (Partly that's my fault as it was a misreading, partly to keep the game a bit more balanced.) 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Right, having had a little more time to reflect, this morning, I think it's clear that the evidence against Aman is far, far thinner than that against Headshot. 

It is very possible that I'm wrong about Aman - I did make a mistake in my analysis last night, with regards to Elenion's withdrawal of his vote from Phattemer making Aman the second vote on the lynch, and will spend greater time thinking about Aman tonight - I'll ensure I get revised thoughts up before rollover, in case I die, after which they're likely to be of interest.

I do think, though, that Headshot is guilty, and am confident in my analysis of Headshot. I would again point out to @Amanuensis that he hasn't addressed why I would pursue a lynch against Headshot if I were evil, and neither has he offered his own opinions on my points against Headshot, which I think would be of interest to see.

@Amanuensis, do you agree with my analysis of Headshot, and if not, why not? If you do, then I'd like to see your explanation of why you still think I'm evil. 

I am perfectly fallible, and apologise if I am wrong on Aman. That said, I still think that there is a fair likelihood that I am not, and his ignoring my argument against Headshot do corroborate my view, slightly.

After I die, whether to the lynch today, or tonight, I would ask that you do lynch Aman the next cycle. Giving him a turn to find a skaa to prove he's not evil is sadly not brilliant proof - Kelsier has an opportunity to convert, tonight, which gives Aman the opportunity to bus a newly converted player, if he is evil.

I'll be at work, and unable to respond until my evening (GMT). I think that there is a real danger that discussion isn't carried out on Headshot. His alignment will tell us a great deal about the alignment of both Aman and myself, and in my view, will remove a clear eliminator. As such, I would ask that in addition to offering opinions on Aman and myself, everyone also considers my argument against Headshot, which I think we can all agree, is materially stronger.

Edited March 15, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai

[Amanuensis]

20 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

 

My purpose was to find ruin and use them against the skaa. Not responding to the rest of that mega post because I'll need to read it at least three more times before I actually grasp it.

Fair enough. I look forward to your response.

20 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

 

@Amanuensis, it's 6:40am, and I'll answer your posts more substantively later, when I can. For now, let me clarify. I meant to say Szeth, not Bart when discussin fyour auppprt for an inactive today, which you did indicate a degree of support for - "Fair enough. I might join you, but I'll hold off for now".

Similarly, for the sale of clarity, I would point to my saying you were the third vote on Elenion as a typo. I thought were instead the third vote on Phattemer.. This I will admit is wrong, and a conclusion drawn from spending too long starting at a screen. You may safely ignore the conjecture on 3rd voting.

On sleep, Aman, that's really interesting. You see, the thread was posted a time midnight my time, and at 8:38am, I have a screenshot that showed you'd been active seven hours ago, meaning you'd been active at least 30 minutes after my post, which I attach. Why are you now saying you were not active at that time?

Finally, what are your thoughts on Headshot. I think he's pretty uncontroversially evil. I admit, I may well be wrong on you, but with a game as short as I believe it to be, did not want to preclude me from posting my suspicions. I do find it suspicious that you don't mention my points against Headshot once - I presume you must believe him to be innocent, rather than throwing him under the bus. How do you then explain his slip ups, and actions?

"I might" =/= Agreement. "I might" = Consideration.

Fair enough. I realized you meant Phatt as well, but it was still important for me to address the fact I wasn't the third vote.

I fell asleep shortly after I made my last post of D1, not long after my last edit. Look at the time stamp here for the exact time I got off my computer to go to bed.

While finding that, I will note that I didn't even see your post shortly after about you thinking Phatt is a villager and being suspicious of HH until now. If I did, I would have said something about it, because that looks a lot like you trying to get some credit off not lynching Phatt before the results came in.

In regards to the screenshot itself, I really don't know what to say because that's the fault of the system, not you or me. If I wanted to, I could probably find more out of game evidence to support my claim of when I went to bed using discord, but because it's legitimately a waste of both your time and mine, I'm not going to bother. Instead, I'll just do this.

I'm not lying when I went to sleep, when I woke up, or when I finally looked at the Night thread. I can only guess as to why it says that.

If I had to guess, I'd attribute it to two factors. First, the Last Visited will continue to say "7 hours ago" even if a player has not been active for 7 hours and 59 minutes. Your post accusing Headshot was at 0057am your time. That screenshot is at 0838. That is a total of 7 hours and 41 minutes, leaving a 19 minute leeway for any of my devices to have last checked the website. Does that prove that I checked the website before that? Maybe. If the system is infallible, then yes. But I definitely don't remember looking at the thread then, let alone after you posted an hour later. So either there was a glitch somewhere or in a half-asleep daze I picked up my phone to google something and it pinged me because the 17th Shard is the default page on my phone's browser app. I do that a lot when I sleep, because I'll wake up from dreams with ideas for my stories and will look up information and jot down notes.

But if you don't want to believe that, then let's look at when Headshots post was. 0154 for you. So, let's subtract 7 hours exactly from 0838. That brings us to 0138. Okay. I can see the perspective from a Noble, maybe. Your theory is Headshot and I are Skaa together, that he asked me for help on how to respond to you, I read your post and gave him tips in the doc. So, if I was helping him, then why didn't I read the thread right after he posted? Hm, wait. I see it! 54 - 38 = 16! 16 Minutes! 16 Shards! It can't be a coincidence! It all makes sense now! Preservation is manipulating the numbers on our clocks to lead the Nobles to the Skaa!

...

Not.

Something I'm failing to grasp is why are you latching onto this idea that it's me. Isn't absolutely every other person here just as capable of being Headshot's coach? There were 16 players alive at the time, one we know for a fact that was Skaa (Ecth) So why not Ecth? Why not one of the 11 other players who are not proven Nobles? Now that I think about it, why not HH himself? Why does he even need someone to help him defend against you? Using this as evidence against ultimately boils down to you saying in a roundabout way that HH can't articulate a genuine response to your accusations on his own.

As for why I didn't mention him in that last post, it's because I wasn't arguing for his innocence or his lackthereof. I was responding to the extremely inaccurate accusations you laid against me, and nothing else. That alone took me six hours to muster, more than the amount of time I wanted to spend on this game tonight because I still have a write up to finish. If I had gone and commented on anything else you would have said, it would have taken me until now to have posted my first response.

Well, I might as well do it now, since you've asked me so nicely.

The first thing I noticed going back to read all of HHs posts for is that I was confusing him with Droughtbringer. As you'll see in my first post this turn, he's the player I @mentioned when I asked about Drought's vote-for-inactives plan. Their avatars aren't similar enough for me to confuse, so honestly, I'm not sure how I managed that, but I did and it affected some of the things I said in my previous post. I'll reconsider those things in a minute, since I prefer to start from the beginning.

Like many other players (including Phatt), HH was content to sit back and wait for discussion to happen. After I addressed the problem with doing that by voting for Phatt, he's been participating a little bit more. He begins doing so by voting for Phatt when the only other option was Len. He says he was tempted to vote along with you and Mage because he had good reads on you two from an earlier an earlier discussion, but ultimately decides to join the bandwagon for no other reason than "I'm susceptible to bandwagons." Is this suspicious on its own? I would say no because in the past I've seen plenty of villagers say or act similar, but what I find interesting is what he says as he retracts it.

First, he says he expected to be accused of being a Skaa because he decided to bandwagon. He's not surprised, but he still did it. He immediately looks at the other two candidates (Len and Mage) and says he can't do anything with either vote. Mage, because he only had 1 versus 6 (before HH retracted, Arin joined the bandwagon) and presumably Len for the same reason (Len had two at the time). Weird thing is, he doesn't comment on Mage again at all, but says "Len, I'm not feeling right now. He might be suspicious, but I don't think it's enough." That the second time he refuses to vote on Len, this time saying Len is suspicious, which he didn't do the first time he considered it. Len never posted between his vote on Phatt and his retraction, so it seems really weird that he'd say that, let alone remain voteless.

HH responds to your comments on him, and he accepts it, saying "I don't think I'm as suspicious as Len or phatt, but apparently I am. It's a matter of perspective." What this suggests to me is that HH is a victim of group think. I'm not sure if he has trouble formulating suspicions of his own, but so far this game he's just been following the crowd, which he alludes to earlier when he says he's susceptible to bandwagons. This is the first post that made me want to give Headshot the benefit of that doubt, because otherwise I would be expecting everyone here to think as thoroughly about these games as me, which I can't and won't do because that's unfair to them. As a result of that, this post makes me think he's a villager. Unfortunately he muddles up that interpretation by punctuating the post with "most of us are confused and wondering who to lynch," which doesn't make any sense because it implies other people have said they're confused and wondering (which they haven't). I personally don't think that HH would say that as an eliminator, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that he only said it to seem innocent.

His next post is shortly after Phatt votes for Elenion to bring the numbers closer (3 on Len to 5 on Phatt). He responds to a statement Phatt made "on the off chance that some of the people who like to hop off bandwagons decide to hop off this one" with his own "Is that a deliberate attempt to get me to vote on Len?" I find this interesting because this is the third time he avoids voting for Len, despite saying earlier that Len is suspicious, and implying the reason he wouldn't vote for mage is because the margin was too big. He had an opportunity then to make the lynch 5 on Phatt and 4 on Len, which could have tipped the balance. In summary, he was given the opportunity to vote for Len over Phatt three times before the lynch was fully sealed, and he chose Phatt or abstinence each time. For that reason, I think that if Orlok is right about Headshot, then it's more likely Len who's his teammate than me. (EDIT: Which is weird because Len is voting for him, which I now see after doing the vote tally)

Braize, Len was the very next person to post and vote for Phatt, and literally six minutes later HH asks the thread if he should join the bandwagon or not. At this point I want to believe there's no way HH can be a Skaa, let alone a Skaa with Len, because if it's true, then that's just... wow.

Okay. I seriously need to stop. I've already spent most of my shift on this game, I have actual work I need to do, and when that's done I really should put the finishing touches on the LG30 finale, as I've been distracted from it long enough. I will say that the way HH started off the night, trying to shift the suspicion towards the players who voted for Phatt, seems really suspect, but a part of me feels that it's just too blatant. Every time he makes a post like this, I really do get the feeling he is just a confused villager wondering what to do. I get the exact same feeling when I read his follow up post, the explanation of his actions, as well his response to Stick when she was being vague about her suspicions towards him.

That said, his two posts today have read... off to me. Mostly because I don't like that he says "I believe that Aman is a noble for now" without actually explaining why. That and I'm having trouble seeing why he asked El the question he did. @Hemalurgic_Headshot, can you explain these two things to me? I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding the long games comment, but as for the rest of that post, where he votes for you... gah. Saying definites like "Orlok is Skaa" contradicts him being a "confused villager wondering who to lynch."

While typing this post, I've gotten ninja'd by both El and Orlok. El said Kelsier couldn't have converted someone last night, which is relieving in one sense, but irritating because now I'm left wondering if I'm half-Skaa and if they're going to try converting me. Orlok has also responded again, and accepted that his case against me was not as strong as he initially believed, and in retrospect, I doubt he would have made as many mistakes as he did if he was a Skaa trying to get me lynched. It would have been much safer for him to just kill me in the night rather than confront me openly like that, and in the event that he decided to, I imagine he'd have been more careful about it.

@OrlokTsubodai, you've implied you're a Tin Ferring by admitting you spied on Joe's PM. The only other explanation would be that you're Ruin, who you've advocated getting rid of sooner rather than later. For that reason, I trust you're at least not a Shard, however I would like to find a way to prove you're not just Skaamates with Joe or Stick, if we both manage to live until N3. I have a plan that I will discuss with you around then.

I'm willing to follow your lead on Hemalurgic_Headshot, now that you've backed down and I've looked at him closer. A small part of me still believes he is innocent, but right now I have more reason to believe you are a Noble than I do him. I'm sorry if I came off rude in my earlier post, or even at any point in this one, but as I said in my previous post's disclaimer, I felt your claims of evidence were farfetched. The screenshot really helps, tho, because I can see how something like that would color your perspective, even though I know that it's inaccurate. Still, kudos to you for going that extra mile.

---

Day 2 Vote Tally

(1) Szeth Son-Son Mallano: DroughtBringer, 

(3) Hemalurgic_Headshot: OrlokTsubodai, Elenion, Amanuensis

(1) OrlokTsubodai: Hemalurgic_Headshot, Amanuensis,

 

14 hours left in the Day and only five players have voted. Despite all the information we got, me sitting in the background didn't really get the village anywhere. I was hoping people would talk more while I was asleep, but unfortunately activity this turn hasn't been very high. @Elenion, do you still want to vote for HH after the discussion between Orlok and me? @Jondesu, @Silverblade5, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, what are your opinions on HH, Orlok and myself? I'd mention Szeth Son-Son Mallano, but he hasn't been online since March 8th, so I don't see the point anymore.

Edited March 16, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Okay. "Confused villagers not knowing what to vote" was a general statement, because I had not gone through to check on what each player had thought about the voting options. I was just taking the general feeling I felt from reading the posts and expressing that in a statement. 

What else?

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Okay. "Confused villagers not knowing what to vote" was a general statement, because I had not gone through to check on what each player had thought about the voting options. I was just taking the general feeling I felt from reading the posts and expressing that in a statement. 

What else?

I had two questions from your first post this turn.

On 3/13/2017 at 9:08 PM, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Okay, I just finished one of my many school projects due this week, and I thought that we still had a full day in the Night cycle. Apparently not.

So now things get interesting, and lively! (or deadly, most likely) Four different kill orders went out last Night, and a Skaa was killed! A Metallurgist and a Kandra were killed, both Noble, and Gold Ferring was killed! It's good that Ecth was killed before the extra lives made things really crazy. The information is great.

With that many kills going out each night, and if we have Kelsier, Ruin, a Coinshot, the Skaa kill, and possibly TLR all using a kill action during the cycle, the numbers of players could drop quite fast. The best way to keep Nobles alive is to lynch a Skaa Coinshot or Kelsier this cycle. 

I believe that Aman is Noble for now, but like many are saying, Kelsier is likely going to attempt to convert him tonight. So we need to find and lynch Kelsier today.

@Elbereth, if a player were to be killed by an action during a night cycle, but another player's action killed the player killing the first player, would the first player still die?*

*highlighted for identification.

Why do you believe I'm a Noble? Just saying it without an explanation makes me think you might just being saying that to be on my good side. You could be doing that as a villager but something like that is more likely to be done by an eliminator, especially if it can tie that person to you and drag them down with you if they start sinking.

Also, what was your line of thought when asking El that question? How did you get there, and what did you think when you saw El's answer?

EDIT: @Hemalurgic_Headshot, another question. Why didn't you vote on Len after Phatt did?

Edited March 15, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

What Orlok said here

12 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

In this PM, Joe indicated that he was suspicious of her. After a response, he said he was much less suspicious that she were skaa, and then asked if she was Ruin. After a two hour delay, which I take to indicate that there was a response, he concluded the PM chain by saying “Don’t worry, I won't tell”. 

is true but missing out stuff. Post1, where Joe said he was suspicious of me and Phatt being elims together, was in D1. Post2, the one in which he said he's not all that suspicious of me anymore, took place in N1, after the lynch proved Phatt to be a villager. So my response to Post1 isn't relevant to Post2 at all. 

In Post2, Joe asked me if I were Ruin, true. He also asked me if he could reveal my role to the thread, since he'd already mentioned how he was in contact with a Kandra. Orlok left that part out, I think. Can't begin to guess why. I told Joe to keep it hidden for now, to which he replied with don't worry, I won't tell. 

[Amanuensis]

@Elbereth, can you clarify for me how Ruin's PMs work? Can he create more than one in a turn? If not, can he create a PM, spy on a PM AND kill a player, or is that limited to two actions, or one? How long do Ruin's PMs last? The rules suggest a single-cycle, but Conq said it, and apparently things have changed for balance reasons, so I need to know if I'm going to be able to tell the difference between Ruin and kandra

@OrlokTsubodai, why did you leave out an explanation of the rest of Joe's responses? You made it sound like Joe only sent 3 messages, which I think Stick is saying there was more.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Elenion]

@Amanuensis I think that one of you or Orlok is probably Spiked, based on how each of you has brought up a large amount of evidence about the other. Aman's arguments are more logical than Orlok's, but I've had the better gut read on Orlok since I've been scrutinizing him.  Right now, I don't think I'm certain enough to throw a vote on either of them, because lynching the village one of them would be less than ideal for obvious reasons.  But if I had to pick one of them to vote on, I'd vote for Aman, because Orlok identified Headshot as a liar, a very un-elim-like move.

 I'm keeping my vote on Headshot, because that's where the tangible evidence is. I am open to moving it, but given the circumstances I don't think I will end up doing it.

[Amanuensis]

18 minutes ago, Elenion said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Amanuensis I think that one of you or Orlok is probably Spiked, based on how each of you has brought up a large amount of evidence about the other. Aman's arguments are more logical than Orlok's, but I've had the better gut read on Orlok since I've been scrutinizing him.  Right now, I don't think I'm certain enough to throw a vote on either of them, because lynching the village one of them would be less than ideal for obvious reasons.  But if I had to pick one of them to vote on, I'd vote for Aman, because Orlok identified Headshot as a liar, a very un-elim-like move.

 I'm keeping my vote on Headshot, because that's where the tangible evidence is. I am open to moving it, but given the circumstances I don't think I will end up doing it.

...

I guess catching Hemalurgic in a "lie" that could be an honest slip is more telling than me pinning Ecth as a Skaa the night before he was killed. Do I need to quote the passage where I accused him? Because apparently no one noticed, despite how many times I've brought it up already. Oh well, I'll do it anyway

Quote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am suspicious of Ecth. The two times I've seen him as an eliminator (LG26 and LG30) he wasn't very... public, for lack of a better term. He's only posted twice (three times if you count this turn's post about the timer, which I don't) which makes me think he's holding thoughts in reserve and that he's busy plotting elsewhere. The few thoughts he has posted were light, but confrontational. He also never responded to my @message asking if he reconsidered his thoughts about Phatt after seeing the bangwagon form, which gives me the feeling he was avoiding it because he didn't want a good situation for the Skaa to turn itself around. Additionally, he picked apart one small portion of one of my many posts to make me look like I was Preservation trying to avoid being targeted by Ruin. As a villager, why point that out? Preservation is confirmed Noble, and all Nobles should want to protect his identity. On the other side of the fence, whether he was right or wrong, it would publicly put the thought in Ruin's head, making me a viable target to be attacked by him. Whether or not I actually am Preservation, the Skaa would benefit from Ruin killing me, as that allows them to place their kill elsewhere. A combination of these factors has put Ecth at the top of my suspicion list.

And the results of this turn:

On 3/13/2017 at 7:00 PM, Elbereth said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

LG31: Day Two - Much Comical Death

...
Ecthelion was killed! He was a Skaa Gold Ferring!

I guess that means absolutely nothing >>

 

ALSO, there's no reason why Orlok and I can't both be Nobles. Why do one of us have to be "Spiked"? (I know you meant Skaa, but I just want to point out that there's nothing wrong with being Spiked this game. Look at me if you need proof)

Edited March 15, 2017 by Amanuensis

[Arinian]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

14 hours left in the Day and only five players have voted. Despite all the information we got, me sitting in the background didn't really get the village anywhere. I was hoping people would talk more while I was asleep, but unfortunately activity this turn hasn't been very high. @Elenion, do you still want to vote for HH after the discussion between Orlok and me? @Jondesu, @Silverblade5, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, what are your opinions on HH, Orlok and myself? I'd mention Szeth Son-Son Mallano, but he hasn't been online since March 8th, so I don't see the point anymore.

I don't know whom to choose... thinking between Orlok and HH. I looked over HH's posts and his behavior is usual for  Village!HH only thing that I've seen is that he looks too nervous about lynch on him, in AG3 where HH was villager he reacted on accusation more calmly(that's how it looked for me). Also Orlok's point about HH:

Quote

He justified your initial agreement with Mage without elaborating by saying that he’d “forgotten the pacing of a Long Game is much slower. I was ready for things to progress, get information etc”. He hasn’t played anything other than Long Games. He’s played AG3 and LG30. To me, this tells me that he was advised by someone else in the creation of his response to my post, or that someone else wrote it for him.

 He right HH played only LGs so that's also catched my attention.

What to say about Orlok? All his accusations of Aman for me looks like big scratch, he just tried to get something from nowhere. Also from some failures in his statements I can say that he was too eager in throwing them, but in my opinion elims more careful with things that they write. And also after he losed his battle against Aman he just said something like "Okay you right, but look! I was right about HH" for me looked like he was  to fast in throwing accusation and taking them back.

Still I don't know for who to vote. I will vote for HH but only cause looks like there enough vig kills to deal with Orlok if HH villager.(I don't know why I'm voting on HH over Orlok I just don't know... that's what my gut says to me).

[Elbereth]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Elbereth, can you clarify for me how Ruin's PMs work? Can he create more than one in a turn? If not, can he create a PM, spy on a PM AND kill a player, or is that limited to two actions, or one? How long do Ruin's PMs last? The rules suggest a single-cycle, but Conq said it, and apparently things have changed for balance reasons, so I need to know if I'm going to be able to tell the difference between Ruin and kandra

Ruin's PMs work exactly the same as a Kandra. Two per cycle, only lasts one cycle. Making PMs is essentially a free action for him, as stated in the rules (or another way to think about it would be that Ruin is automatically granted the Kandra role). He may only spy on PMs or kill a player in a cycle. Not both. 

And I'm pretty sure the only thing that's changed for balance reasons is the actions, and anything else that has been specifically clarified in thread. 

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

 

Ruin's PMs work exactly the same as a Kandra. Two per cycle, only lasts one cycle. Making PMs is essentially a free action for him, as stated in the rules (or another way to think about it would be that Ruin is automatically granted the Kandra role). He may only spy on PMs or kill a player in a cycle. Not both. 

And I'm pretty sure the only thing that's changed for balance reasons is the actions, and anything else that has been specifically clarified in thread. 

Ah. I thought kandra PMs were permanent. So, in other words, there's no fair way to prove if a kandra is actually Ruin or not, other than death. Of course it wouldn't be that easy.

Alright, I just finished Arc 18 of Worm, so I am now finally going to bed. I won't be online again until after turn over.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Aman, I didn't vote on Len because phatt was a suspect at the time, so following would gather suspicion on myself.

[Jondesu]

Wow, lots to catch up on.  In case anyone thinks I was lurking, btw, I was, but only because I was catching up on reading through the thread when I wasn't sleeping, but I never felt up to making a post.

From what I can see, there are three main suspicions being thrown around in the thread itself: HH, Orlok, and Man.

HH's slip up could easily be read either way, and both Aman and Orlok covered most of that fairly extensively (whew), but it is very interesting to me.  If he's only played long games, then commenting on the pacing of a long game doesn't make sense to me, and his explanation of it certainly isn't very convincing to me.  That said, it also doesn't quite seem like an Elim mistake to me, so it's hard to really jump on him for that specifically.  The vote from yesterday on phatt, maybe, but then again a whole lot of us voted on phatt and it's safe to say we're not all Skaa.

Aman, I'm leaning towards not being Skaa, but he's such a good player and has so much analysis that he could just be hiding behind that.  It's what he has done in the other game(s?) I've played with him, so it's not immediately suspicious, similarly to how I tried not to make too much out of Elenion doing a similar post.  He could have been converted, but I think the odds are against that, both because I doubt Kelsier could have used a conversion with that many kills happening, and because he's not exceptionally likely to be half-Skaa anyways (as someone pointed out with math).

Orlok, I hate to say, is also all too likely to be village, tunneling on Aman, simply because I've seen that too often now as well. I can't help but think the Skaa are just sitting back and grinning about this debate taking the focus off everyone else, though if either Aman or Orlok turns out to be Skaa, that'll be great (since it's unlikely that they'll both survive very long, between the Lynch, Skaa, and Coinshot/Ruin kills).  I genuinely wish we could keep them both in the game since they're so good at analysis, but I'm not holding my breath.

A couple other notes about other players too.

@Arinian expressed some suspicion of Joe for his Kandra plan, but I talked to him in a PM and he explained that he thought it seemed like the game was very Kandra-heavy (he'd contacted several already and knew of others).  I won't reveal any kandra to the thread myself, since I think that's bad form, but there's a fair number of them in this game it seems, making his reveal not too big of a deal to me.

Not that suspicious of Arinian either.  His point about not going after inactives because it doesn't work out for villagers is unfortunately too accurate, though I still want to at least put pressure on inactives.  I think Szeth is a lost cause, though, and in this case, one inactive won't hurt us too directly, so I'm willing to ignore him for the Lynch for now.  If a Coinshot or Ruin wants to take him out (especially on the off-chance that he's a Skaa or Preservation, though the odds probably aren't particularly high on either), I'd fully support that, though.

Stick, you responded to the accusation of you being Ruin, but you didn't actually refute it.  It seems you almost certainly have a role, but considering there are so many kandra, you could be just another one of those.  Care to explain why you didn't just tell just that you're not Ruin, though?  I wouldn't lynch you if you were, since as I said, Ruin is actually an asset to the Nobles this game, except the one that happens to be Preservation and any that get caught in his hunt, but it seems you'd be making yourself a target for the Skaa by not refuting that claim.  That does make me a bit more suspicious, not that you're Ruin, but that you might be a Skaa and trying to play some mind games with us.

We don't seem to have any real lurkers who aren't posting much at all, at least without letting us know, which is nice.  Unfortunately, I'm not getting a lot to go on for the Lynch from what most people have been saying, either.  There's a lot of genuinely helpful suggestions being thrown out, but ones that could easily come from either side, and I haven't seen any particularly bad logic or suggestions.  

I guess at this point, I'm more suspicious of Orlok than HH or Aman, due to the way he's going after Aman and yet switched so easily to HH.  I know that's somewhat in conflict with what I said earlier, but considering the lack of lurkers, the odds are rising against Orlok just being a tunneling Noble.

[Arinian]

Quote

Well, considering that I got a PM from Stick this cycle and it has kandra in the title, I severely doubt she's Ruin.

Huh it's was hard but I found thing in Aman's post that confuses me.

I also have PM with kandra but there no Kandra in title! So what is that? Kandra on their own creating PMs so title means nothing? Or that GM's failure? Or... there something else... hmm...

I want to hear answer from other players who have had PMs from kandra.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Arinian

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Jondesu, I apologise for the brevity of this response. I'll try to get more detailed thoughts out later, but am running on 4 hours sleep, and have only recently got back from a stressful and extended time at work.

Essentially, the point I'd make in response is that I didn't switch to Headshot. I've been advocating his death since D1, and voted for him in my main post of this cycle. It is entirely possible that I'm wrong about Aman, and it's certainly true that I was tunnelling. I've been wary of him this game, as I've had a sense that he's been flooding the thread with analysis to avoid anyone being able to analyse him. Before my post, Aman's being a villager was entirely undisputed, despite no one actually having analysed what he was saying, and I sought to generate discussion and thoughts on him, rather than spending this cycle on what I thought was a fairly clear case for lynching Headshot. Focusing on Aman has forced him to defend his own actions, and has generated far more information than the previous 24 hours, which were spent with the total output being little more than Aman exhorting activity. 

@Amanuensis, thank you for the explanation of the screenshot. That does alleviate some of my concern. I'll address your substantive points once I've eaten, but the one I can remember seeing earlier is sufficiently important that I want to put particular emphasis on it.

You asked me whether I thought Headshot would need another player to write his post for him to defend himself against his accusations, being unable to do so himself. @Hemalurgic_Headshot, I did not mean this, and am deeply sorry if you feel like that. I think another player wrote the post because it seems, to me, to be absolutely impossible that any one of us could forget that we've never played a type of game, and it's more plausible, I think, that a player thought it would be a sound defence of Headshot having imperfect information of his game history than it is for Headshot to decide to lie about it himself in order to decrease suspicion.

Edited March 15, 2017 by OrlokTsubodai
Mixed up Arinian and Jondesu in my summons

[Elenion]

Confirmed Kandra Randuir PMed me C1 without Kandra in the PM title, so there goes all of the paranoid theories.

Sorry, Aman, I forgot about that.  While it could have been busing on your part, it could also be Orlok busing HH, so there goes one of my primary reasons for trusting Orlok over you. Hmm... I may end up moving my vote after all, but that's an "I may" and not an "I will".  But if I did move it, it would be to Orlok.

I guess both Aman and Orlok could be Skaa, but I don't think it would be wise to attempt a bussing right after Ecth got murked. All logic goes against it.

 Right now, I think HH is still the best lynch,  as a suspicion lynch as well as an info lynch.  If he turns out Skaa, like I'm betting, their team is probably crippled.  If he turns out village, then Aman has been right about 2 players, and I'd probably vote on Orlok D3 because Aman would be proved to be hitting the nail right on the head with his other reads.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Jondesu, merely because Mage's comments on D1 lead me to think that editing in a summons prevents it from working.

[Droughtbringer]

(1) Szeth Son-Son Mallano: DroughtBringer, 

(6) Hemalurgic_Headshot: OrlokTsubodai, Elenion, Amanuensis, Arinian, DroughtBringer, Straw

(2) OrlokTsubodai: Hemalurgic_Headshot, Amanuensis, Jondesu


Looking at this, and how little time is left I am going to say that HH looks like he is going to be lynched. I am moving my vote to him for one main reason: I do not want to see Orlok or Aman go, they have both been amazing, active players. They have been providing information for the village, and attempting to rally us together and keep us innactives (me) playing and posting in this game. Orlok has pulled out some...interesting information (The screenshot) and I think that other things like that could easily come in very useful for the village. So as that my vote is going onto Hemalurgic_Headshot.

Edit: Added Straw's vote

Edited March 15, 2017 by DroughtBringer
Update

[Straw]

Easy choice for me. Hemalurgic Headshot. Thy time hath come.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Well then, I accept my fate. I suppose this wasn't my best game, there is much evidence to confirm that. I'll probably be more focused next week. I wish the Village good luck when I'm gone. I bet the Elims are rejoicing. But, as many have stated, my death will not be useless. There is valuable information to come of it.

HH.

[Arinian]

2 minutes ago, Hemalurgic_Headshot said:

Well then, I accept my fate. I suppose this wasn't my best game, there is much evidence to confirm that. I'll probably be more focused next week. I wish the Village good luck when I'm gone. I bet the Elims are rejoicing. But, as many have stated, my death will not be useless. There is valuable information to come of it.

HH.

I don't like this attitude when people voting on themselves. It's just feels wrong to me when people say something like "Okay, lynch me, I also will vote on myself". I don't know what to add...  mehh.

[Droughtbringer]

Gah why is everyone voting on themselves?!?!?!?!??!?!
Like it just makes me kinda sad...

[Elbereth]

Day is over! Night will be posted as soon as the forum lets me.