Amanuensis

Long Game 30: Journey Before Destination

959 posts in this topic

Uther walked the halls the heralds once walked. It was evening, and the inhabited regions of the tower were bustling with activity. Urithiru hadn't looked like this since the shadowdays... Many of the other initiates were heading to pub seb, including Hithon. Uther took note of this, but decided to wait before making his way there. Uther wandered the lower floors of Urithiru. He needed some time to think... He slowly wove his way through the crowd, going nowhere in particular.

"Why are you afraid?" a female voice asked, directly behind Uther.

Uther spun around. He was surrounded by people, but none of them seemed to be looking at him. Nobody was standing right behind him... Again.

 

Uther froze. His eyes snapped back to a man in the crowd... Scarred across the face, lip to chin. Violet eyes surveying the crowd with the faintest hint of disdain. Dressed like a high ranking lighteyes.

Strolling through the crowded halls of Urithiru, here was Mraize. Uther's mentor.

He hadn't noticed Uther. He was moving with purpose towards the Kholin district in the tower.

Without pausing to consider, Uther checked his pockets, then, as if he just realized he had forgotten something, turned back towards the Kholin district, tailing Mraize. He did his best to maintain the facade of an absentminded initiate, continuing wandering through the crowd. I was right. Storm it, but I was. The Ghostbloods are involved in the murders.

And Mraize was an expert at this game. Even in a crowd, it would be difficult to follow the man for long without being noticed. Do not hesitate, you will only stick out. The hunter does not betray itself. Mraize's own advice. Now it was to be tested as never before.

Seconds passed as eternities. Mraize was indeed traveling to the Kholin district, where all the initiates were quartered. Uther followed with an unconcerned look pasted on his face, as if heading back to his room to fetch something. Mraize showed a paper to one of Dalinar's guards, and they let him pass. When Uther reached the guards, they admitted him with a glance at his initiate's uniform.

Then Mraize strolled past the hallway where many of the initiates would still be resting. With little else to do, Uther walked into his room, waited about a minute, then exited. Mraize was, of coarse, nowhere in sight.

Normally, Uther would have followed after a target, relying on stealth now that he had no reasonable excuse to be tailing them. With Mraize, he wouldn't take that risk.

Damnation. It would have been foolish to follow him after passing the initiates' block, but damnation... What are the Ghostbloods playing at?

Only one lead remained. Perhaps it was time to pay pub seb a visit, as Brightlord Dalinar had suggested.

 


 

Pub seb was full to bursting, and loud even for a pub. Tables of initiates were swiftly forming, although Uther ignored that for the time being. Hithon was sitting alone in a table near the edge of the pub, tending his cup and seemingly lost in thought. Perfect. It would be nigh impossible to eavesdrop on the table.

How best to go about this...

Uther seated himself at Hithon's table unannounced. "I confess, I did not recognize you. I wasn't aware that Thaidakar had sent anyone other than myself."

@Doc12

Edited by Drake Marshall
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Sorry, got busy so I couldn't do much last chapter, I should be good for the next little bit at least, I'll try to say something beforehand next time.

So hmm...So much possible things going on...I am slightly curious as to why @Arinian trusts El...but I'll let it slide(Cause he slid away ;))  Not that many suspicions that I have going on..still don't trust Arinian but don't feel like trying to get a lynch on him again if we aren't certain that he won't just be able to slide out of it again...

 

 



 

Petrik felt like crem, cremy crem to be exact. Pain shot up his arm whenever he had to move it in the slightest, yet, he had to pretend that everything was fine. The others thought him a Knight Radiant like they were, they expected him to be able to heal from any wounds that he took, to be practically indestructible like the rest of them. He was not. 

Petrik had been accepted as an initiate, and that meant that he was that much closer to becoming a full fledged Knight Radiant. To be able to protect those that he cared about, to be able to truly make a difference for once. Petrik wanted that, Petrik needed that. He needed to be useful.

He looked around Urithuru, hoping to be able to find some secrets, find some hope, find a way to protect.

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So I was busy most of today, so I haven't been able to check the forum lately. I'll post RP now and discussion tomorrow.

Sareth ran his hands down the beaten length of his staff, his good, sturdy, trusty staff. It had served him well, but was in bad shape. He felt behind his back at the gaping hole in his cloak. Such a pity, that a historical garment such as the Truthseeker's Robe should be rent by his actions! He would have to get this mended immediately. He knew a bit about sewing from experience, but lacked the equipment necessary. He would have to find seamstress of some sort to do the work for him. He patted his pockets. Unfortunately, most of his sphere had been lost or gone dun because of previous events. He hoped that he could bargain a job out of her.

He strolled down the halls of Urithiru, relaxing peacefully, enjoying the lack of danger in the air. Even if there were assassins lurking about, hidden among the ranks of the Initiates, would they jump out and stab him now? No, don't be ridiculous. He still had at least today in his life, and that was enough. He focused on his feet. One step at a time. He descended, finding himself among a crowd. He pushed about, weaving through the throng, and caught a bit of conversation.

"Yeah, everyone's meeting down at Pub Seb. Great place to unwind."

Sareth's eyebrows raised. A pub? Not normally the place that he would wander into, but he would be in the company of Radiants, so such a pub would be no ordinary one. If only he could find it... he walked off in one general direction, and hoped that it would lead him in towards his goal.

A while later, an indeterminable amount of time has passed, no one was really paying attention...

Pub Seb was a hive of activity. Initiates lounged at tables, gripping mugs or glasses of colorful wine. Behind the bar was that same chromatic assortment of wines from the gala. So this was the man that had supplied that night's festivities with its alcohol. Sareth shrugged. It didn't matter to him. After retrieving a glass of water from the bartender (at least it was free), he selected a table and sat down. He sighed. At last, a time when he could actually sit! Strange, the things we take for granted. He glanced around at the other tables. Initiates laughed and chatted. In the corner, Teresh sat down with Hithon. Their conversation did not seem as carefree as the others'. Sareth tapped his chin. There is more afoot among us than we know, he thought. However, this was not his place to take action among the pasts of the men. He had only to convert them.

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3 hours ago, DroughtBringer said:

Sorry, got busy so I couldn't do much last chapter, I should be good for the next little bit at least, I'll try to say something beforehand next time.

So hmm...So much possible things going on...I am slightly curious as to why @Arinian trusts El...but I'll let it slide(Cause he slid away ;))  Not that many suspicions that I have going on..still don't trust Arinian but don't feel like trying to get a lynch on him again if we aren't certain that he won't just be able to slide out of it again...

I meant trust not in this game but trust to person at all.

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

o.O Okay? May I ask why you trust me? I haven't posted since cycle 2 and I don't think I even said much alignment-indicative then...

If you want I can delete you from list of people whom I can trust and put you on list of people whom I will kill when I get kill role... I think there still some place between Lopen and Alv, it suits you?;)(Joe don't worry, you on the first place whom I will kill when I will get kill ability(joke)) 

RP:short and horrible RP

Spoiler

I stood on the balcony sipping wine, chill wind blew from the west slightly rippling curtains. Down near the Oathgate crowd swarmed. Water dripped from their dirty, bloody clothes. I grinned to my thoughts “What a lucky I am”.

Yet there was no time for the rest, I escaped but all my seals and dagger-sword still was in hands of this annoying squires. And I needed to get into my room but there was small problem, all time surveillance over my room.

I turned and left room from where I watched return of other initiates. So many things to do, so little time.

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The night was cooler than Naihar expected but then they were up in the mountains so some chill was to be expected even in summer.  Naihar idly wondered if it snowed in Urithiru.  The towers draped in snow like a Brightness wearing an elegant white gown.

He stopped outside one of the many inns that had sprung up to house the influx of darkeyes and low ranking lighteyes while high ranking lighteyes and Radiants slept in the tower itself.

“I thought you might be stopping by,” a woman said, stepping out onto the porch and wrapping her cloak around her. “I was watching for you through the doorway.”

Naihar had never known anyone like her.  She was clever and intelligent beyond reason and she was more open and sincere than anyone he had ever met.  She was a paradox to him, an impossible mystery he could not solve.  Kali was an honest person.

“You have good eyes.  Not many people see me when I walk at night.”

“You must’ve wanted to be seen then.  You were coming to visit me right?”

“I just wanted to make sure you were safe.  A lot of strange things have been happening lately.”

Kali smiled and as she did, Naihar couldn’t help but notice how her hair shimmered in the moonlight.

“I’m as safe as I can be.  No one is looking for me anymore.” She stepped closer and took his hand, her touch a soothing warmth against the night's chill. “You already saved my life once, you don’t need to keep looking out for me.”

“I have no idea what you are speaking of.  I was nowhere near Vedenar that night and I can prove it.”

She was staring at him now, her emerald eyes searching for something.  Naihar turned away, letting go of her hand thought the warmth continued to seep into him.

“You’re a strange man Naihar.  I wonder if I truly know you at all.”

“You know me better than most.  More so than is really safe for both of us.”

“Be careful.”

“I always am.”

With his cloak billowing in the wind, he walked away.  She watched him until he entered a shadow and was gone.
 



Edit: Since there doesn't seem to be much in the way of votes of in depth discussion, shall we jail another Inactive?

I think Ecthelion III, JUQ, Shqueeves and The lazy anarchist are the ones yet to post this cycle.

Edited by Alvron
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Speaking of inactives, I might not be able to post very much tomorrow since I'll be traveling... Might as well warn in advance.

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Due to work commitments, I will be extending this Chapter an extra day. The new countdown can be found below

 

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Ranatar leaned back against his small writing desk and looked over his work. The appear sheets that he’d sued for his calculations now covered the better part of two walls of his room, covered in equations runes and even a rough draft of the map of the world. He’d started work on his storm model at first as a way of distracting him from the fights still to come and the work had quickly consumed him after that.

Now, he looked over what was, in essence, a finished model. He’d managed to overcome his final obstacles and had even managed to catch a couple of minor mistakes in the work he’d already done. All that was left was merge the collection of equations and calculations into a single equation that could be used to determine the timing of high storms at any point in time and place. Once that was done, he could start comparing the model with actual Highstorms.

8 hours ago, Alvron said:

Edit: Since there doesn't seem to be much in the way of votes of in depth discussion, shall we jail another Inactive?

I think Ecthelion III, JUQ, Shqueeves and The lazy anarchist are the ones yet to post this cycle.

Of these, Ecthellion and Shqueeves have both posted last cycle, so I wouldn't consider them inactive yet. @JUQ has last posted in cycle 2, but has been on the forums with some regularity, and @The lazy anarchist hasn't posted since cycle 1 and hasn't been on the forum for a little over a week (or at least not signed in). If we do go after an inactive, I'd personally suggest going after JUQ. There is at least the possibility he is an elim lurker, while Anarchist seems to be legitimately away from the forums. 

Edit: right, forgot for a moment that the elims could actually give kill-orders to an inactive team-mate, so that means Anarchist can't be ruled out.

12 hours ago, DroughtBringer said:

Not that many suspicions that I have going on..still don't trust Arinian but don't feel like trying to get a lynch on him again if we aren't certain that he won't just be able to slide out of it again...

Arinian claims to have lost his spren, and evidence seems to back it up. @Amanuensis, if multiple people go for the same spren and are all past the minimum honor treshhold, but one of them has less honor invested than the others, is he still eligible to get the spren? For example, person A has 7 honor invested, and persons B and C have 9, could person A still get the spren?

If the person with less honor invested is not considered, I don't think it is very likely that arinian gets the edgedancer again, unless none of the other people that have been getting (nearly) all honor have an interest in the edgedancer spren, there is almost certainly someone who has more honor invested, since arinian missed the honor from last cycle, so I don't expect him to slip out again (though I can't rule it out 100%, of course).

Edited by randuir
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49 minutes ago, randuir said:
 

Arinian claims to have lost his spren, and evidence seems to back it up. @Amanuensis, if multiple people go for the same spren and are all past the minimum honor treshhold, but one of them has less honor invested than the others, is he still eligible to get the spren? For example, person A has 7 honor invested, and persons B and C have 9, could person A still get the spren?

The Initiate with the most honor invested would get it.

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 "I confess, I did not recognize you. I wasn't aware that Thaidakar had sent anyone other than myself."

The voice, he knew. It was the same voice that had screamed his name this morning, shoving him out of the way of a chasmfiend leg. It was the voice of the person who had promised to watch his back yesterday. The man who had saved his life. Uther Teresh. He had sat himself down opposite Hithon, and had just asked him a question.  

Thaidakar? The name sounded...familiar, but he couldn't place it. 

Hithon frowned. "I'm afraid I don't know who you mean." 

Uther started to speak again, but Hithon suddenly had a thought. His hand shot out and touched Uther's right wrist, silencing him. Immediately he felt the man tense, locked and ready to spring into a fighting stance. But then it seemed that Uther forced himself to release that tension. Deftly, Hithon swept his fingers across the back of Uther's wrist, andwhile you weren't supposed to feel tattoos, somehow he realized . Something his eyes had no way of seeing, he saw before him the three diamonds. His fingers froze, and he knew that Uther knew he knew. 

Ghostblood. 

This... this changed things. What were the Ghostbloods doing in Urithiru? What did they gain in sending an agent to be an Initiate? Oh, he knew them. He realized now that they would have stopped at nothing to gain every advantage, even up to sending one of their agents to become a Knight Radiant. Typical Ghostblood behaviour.

No, the real question was "Were they the ones who attacked Lomot?" It made sense. Eliminate the opposition, make sure that the greatest power in the land was held by the Ghostbloods. It made a lot of sense. He was familiar with their tactics. 

What was Uther's part in this? 

So the person using blackbane this morning had been Uther, after all. Well then. This was a surprise. Hithon frowned, extending his wrists, palms facing down.He knew what Uther would see, that there were no tattoos of any kind. Mind still reeling, he began: "What do you want, Uther?" A sigh. "What is a Ghostblood doing among the Initiates?"

@Drake Marshall

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9 hours ago, randuir said:

If the person with less honor invested is not considered, I don't think it is very likely that arinian gets the edgedancer again, unless none of the other people that have been getting (nearly) all honor have an interest in the edgedancer spren, there is almost certainly someone who has more honor invested, since arinian missed the honor from last cycle, so I don't expect him to slip out again (though I can't rule it out 100%, of course).

Ari likely wouldn't have enough honour to rebond with his spren even if no one has gone for Edgedancer.  When a bond breaks their invested honour is reset to zero for that spren so unless Edgedancer takes two honour, I don't see Ari rebonding this cycle.

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Discussion time!

So some interesting things have happened. First, Arinian was an Edgedancer, and escaped. Seeing how most people feel about Arinian right now, the general feel about him is Honorable? Anyways, I'm not going to pursue his death, as it seems tedious. 

So in other ways... Alvron. You missed being imprisoned by one vote last cycle, and you haven't been giving of the most "innocent" vibes as of late. Of course, I might be wrong, especially after my self-confidence has wavered, seeing that many players from the AG (no spoilers from the spectator doc) I suspected turned out to be Villagers. Really, I'm not sure what to do concerning everything, since hard evidence we have is minimal, and if we go through with trying to lynch Arin again and he turns out to be good, then that flips a lot of things on their heads. But Alv, Alv is a suspicion I've had for a while. Frankly, I just want to pry apart all of his deep, cryptic thought processes and comfort myself in knowledge of the unknown.

And seeing that Quiver, being inactive, is unlikely to have snatched up the Edgedancer Bond, we can just execute and leave the prison free for the next prisoner. Really, until people start filling up the prison, the only choice of execution is Quiver, and let's just use the action because we can?

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I am thoroughly exhausted and will not be able to do analysis or RP today like I had hoped, but with the cycle extended, I think I'll still get in a good bit tomorrow. @randuir, if Ranatar would like Kintas to come by and talk about Stormwardens, feel free. Otherwise, he might end up at Club Seb or else just wander and explore Urithiru.

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@Jondesu, he's certainly welcome to come by. I won't have much time to do RP tonight either, but I should have some time tomorrow. I'll leave the initiative up to you, however.

Edited by randuir
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Araon continued through the streets. The daylight was fading and he was glad when he saw the sign for the pub, tucked away in a corner of town. He walked in, and was immediately rewarded with the sounds of drunk men and the smell of lavis beer.

He sat down, waving the bartender over. Retrieving a diamond mark, he handed it to him in exchange for the most alcoholic drink he had. The bartender reappeared a few minutes later, with a sudsy drink that made Araon's eyes water. He took a swig, and immediately felt his senses slip a bit. He smiled, determined not to be able to piss straight the next morning. 

All ready for a barfight Aman :)

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22 hours ago, Arinian said:

I meant trust not in this game but trust to person at all.

ohhh Okay, that makes sense...I mean I wouldn't trust @Elbereth...but if you chose too.. you be you man, you be you.

Not many suspicions that I have here, I have a few people that I don't trust, but not anyone that I think might be Unjust. 
 

 


 Petrik looked at a sphere, able to see the storm raging inside. He wanted that power, he needed that power, yet it couldn't get at it. All the Knights Radiant seemed to be able to just absorb the light, and use it. It didn't seem hard, you just needed to know the secret, and Petrik had no idea of how to find that secret. 
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Sorry guys, I haven't been nearly as active as I should. Aman's writeup is storming long and I still need to catch up on some of the amazing RP.

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The Phantom decided he would attempt to attract a spren.

Only if he knew how to -_-

 

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I'm awake and semi-conscious, so here's some discussion, and RP will be edited in or in a new post depending on if others post before I figure it out.

I started going back through the early cycles to see if any suspicions stood out, and while I wasn't able to keep myself focused enough to go through everyone's posts the whole way through (even if I ignored the RP, which I'm hoping to be able to do for game analysis purposes, although having some people mixing it means I'll have to pay attention to each post no matter what), I did notice something that stood out to me.  I'd be mostly trying to not get annoyed at @Drake Marshall for tunneling on me, since I don't think that's a reason to be suspicious of someone, but when I started reading over his posts, I realized there was a trend.  He's being very helpful in presenting strategies the Elims might use, and ways for us to consider finding them (like watching to see who breaks spren bonds, if we can identify who has them), and is often bringing up things before others say them when it comes to strategies.  That's a good thing for the village usually, but the things he's coming up with sound to me like strategies the Unjust may have discussed in their doc and then dismissed, but that let him get a chance to present those as things we can use, in an attempt to gain trust.  He also switched his vote to Sheep late, which isn't too suspicious, and then put it on quiver as the other inactive, before switching it back to me.  I've also been getting suspicious of how he's pushing Rae, and the questions he's asked of Aman, so I'm going to vote this cycle we interrogate Teresh (Drake Marshall). I don't have any other specific suspicions yet, but I'm going to continue trying to analyze the previous cycles as well as trying to keep myself up to date so I can see other patterns.

I haven't updated my Honor tracking for Day 4 yet since I was gone, but we know Arinian lost his bond, and someone else bonded a spren.  @Amanuensis, can a spren be bonded again the same cycle it's bond was broken with someone else?  If so, that Edgedancer spren is probably the bond that was formed, but if not, it could be just about any other spren.  That means of the 8 types of spren, 5-6 have been bonded (depending on that answer), and my guess is that most people went for the more high-profile spren.  If I had to guess, and I like to, I'd say the following spren are bonded by now: Truthwatcher, Edgedancer (possibly unbonded for this round at least), Lightweaver, and Windrunner.  I'm sure people are going for Dustbringer, but if there's one spren that requires a higher threshold of Honor, I'd almost guarantee that would be one.  The other bond or two that has been formed would have to be Willshaper (probably an easier one to get), Stoneward, or Elsecaller. Stoneward is one of the nice roles for the village to have and to keep from the Elims, so if that hasn't been bonded, hopefully one of us will get it soon. 

No one has more than 8 Honor yet, though there should be a number that do (once I run the numbers for last cycle I'll know), so there's a decent chance that some spren require more than that. There should be enough people with 8 Honor that didn't all go for the same spren to have likely bonded the more difficult ones, and those with less Honor may have gone for spren they figured would require less Honor, so I'm a little surprised we don't have more bonds.  Dustbringer, Truthwatcher, and maybe Stoneward actually probably are the three that haven't been bonded yet, I'm guessing, since they're among the most valuable and likely are the most expensive, but I'm still reevaluating my guesses on that (as shown by the differences in the last paragraph and this one).  If anyone has bonded a spren, please make sure someone else knows, preferably a few other people that you at least somewhat trust, just so information isn't lost if you're killed.  That's something I've decided from previous games almost always makes sense.

Ok, that's it for now, I'll put some time into writing RP and will be back at least once more today before the cycle ends.

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Begin RP:

Balthazar woke as a crash resounded through the Chasmfiend's shell.  They had run aground!  And was that a Kholin standing down there, directing the flow of battle?  Suddenly Balthazar found himself being pushed down the side of the Chasmfiend.  Grabbing one of his swords, he grunted as pain washed across his arm.  He slowly pulled himself back up, grabbed the Gemheart, sheathed his swords, and backflipped off of the greatshell.  He landed with a grunt, and inhaled Stormlight.  It washed across his body, giving him strength. Balthazar grimaced as he took a step.  His body was still sore, despite the healing effects of stormlight.  He'd have to work on that.


Balthazar put up his feet.  He was glad to be back in Urithiru, where there were some surprisingly good liqueurs.  He had, of course, added some of his own mixtures, but the base had been decent.  He leaned back, putting his drink down.  He would be quite happy to get drunk at this time of day.  He was fairly certain that he could use stormlight to counteract the effects of the drink, so he had allowed himself a few more than usual.  Yes, this was a good day.

End RP.


I also don't see a reason not to execute Quiver.  I'm not super suspicious of Alvron, 

5 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I haven't updated my Honor tracking for Day 4 yet since I was gone, but we know Arinian lost his bond, and someone else bonded a spren.  @Amanuensis, can a spren be bonded again the same cycle it's bond was broken with someone else?  If so, that Edgedancer spren is probably the bond that was formed, but if not, it could be just about any other spren.  That means of the 8 types of spren, 5-6 have been bonded (depending on that answer), and my guess is that most people went for the more high-profile spren.  If I had to guess, and I like to, I'd say the following spren are bonded by now: Truthwatcher, Edgedancer (possibly unbonded for this round at least), Lightweaver, and Windrunner.  I'm sure people are going for Dustbringer, but if there's one spren that requires a higher threshold of Honor, I'd almost guarantee that would be one.  The other bond or two that has been formed would have to be Willshaper (probably an easier one to get), Stoneward, or Elsecaller. Stoneward is one of the nice roles for the village to have and to keep from the Elims, so if that hasn't been bonded, hopefully one of us will get it soon. 

I actually can confirm that there is now a Dustbringer.  I did go for it (It was between that and Stoneward, and I decided that Dustbringer suited Balthazar just a little more.  I wouldn't mind opinions on that, actually.  What do you guys think the best spren for Balthazar? :P)  And I was notified that another initiate has been chosen.  Which, I admit, is rather frustrating. :P  I intend to keep going for it, in the hope that I'll get it eventually.

I'm still somewhat suspicious of Arinian, but I'm not sure what exactly we can do about him right now.

I'll try and say more later.

Just saying, I'm good with a bar fight too. :P 

Edited by Magestar
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On 2/19/2017 at 0:25 PM, Alvron said:

Edit: Since there doesn't seem to be much in the way of votes of in depth discussion, shall we jail another Inactive?

I think Ecthelion III, JUQ, Shqueeves and The lazy

anarchist are the ones yet to post this cycle.

I might actually support you on this if no more discussion comes tomorrow, Alv. I'd like to see you pop a vote first, though, and do what you suggest. 

On 2/18/2017 at 3:00 PM, Arraenae said:

Oh, come on, Drake. The cycle started about 23 hours ago. It's three days long. That's 72 hours long. I explicitly said that I want time to think. Or would you prefer that I mindlessly tunnel on Arinian and ignore eveything new that pops up? Just because I haven't placed a vote on him now doesn't mean I won't ever again.

Just pointing out that the three days you've mentioned have passed, Rae :/ 

On 2/18/2017 at 4:17 PM, Elbereth said:

Popping in to note that I have spent the better part of the last five hours catching up on the week's worth of thread I missed (this past weekend was... mm. 'Not pleasant' is a kind way to put it, and I haven't had time to catch up since then.), not counting this thread as yet. As it is after midnight, I am now going to bed, and will read this thread and post in the morning. 

Also, even assuming 100 wpm (given I was very distracted and reading critically is slower, but my usual wpm is about 500), 5 hours makes that 30,000 words in the last two and a half cycles alone. You guys talk a lot. :P

Well, you should have no problem catching up with this one... it's quiet. :P 

On 2/19/2017 at 7:41 AM, DroughtBringer said:

Sorry, got busy so I couldn't do much last chapter, I should be good for the next little bit at least, I'll try to say something beforehand next time.

So hmm...So much possible things going on...I am slightly curious as to why @Arinian trusts El...but I'll let it slide(Cause he slid away ;))  Not that many suspicions that I have going on..still don't trust Arinian but don't feel like trying to get a lynch on him again if we aren't certain that he won't just be able to slide out of it again...

No, as Rae pointed out, his bond was broken. it's very unlikely that he could bond Edgedancer again if we were to lynch him this cycle. 

 

So yeah, those were the things I wanted to respond to. I realize that a lot of people like @Drake Marshall, @Jondesu and @TheMightyLopen have said that they would be out, but what about the other people? We made 8 pages the past two cycles, and only two for this one? Going through the list of people who haven't posted, @The lazy anarchist and @JUQ have not been seen for quite a few cycles. @Shqueeves and @Darkness Ascendant pop up every now and then, but don't usually say much. Elbereth was inactive, but has recent - hey, I got ninjaed.

Hey Jon! Welcome back!

10 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I'm awake and semi-conscious, so here's some discussion, and RP will be edited in or in a new post depending on if others post before I figure it out.

I started going back through the early cycles to see if any suspicions stood out, and while I wasn't able to keep myself focused enough to go through everyone's posts the whole way through (even if I ignored the RP, which I'm hoping to be able to do for game analysis purposes, although having some people mixing it means I'll have to pay attention to each post no matter what), I did notice something that stood out to me.  I'd be mostly trying to not get annoyed at @Drake Marshall for tunneling on me, since I don't think that's a reason to be suspicious of someone, but when I started reading over his posts, I realized there was a trend.  He's being very helpful in presenting strategies the Elims might use, and ways for us to consider finding them (like watching to see who breaks spren bonds, if we can identify who has them), and is often bringing up things before others say them when it comes to strategies.  That's a good thing for the village usually, but the things he's coming up with sound to me like strategies the Unjust may have discussed in their doc and then dismissed, but that let him get a chance to present those as things we can use, in an attempt to gain trust.  He also switched his vote to Sheep late, which isn't too suspicious, and then put it on quiver as the other inactive, before switching it back to me.  I've also been getting suspicious of how he's pushing Rae, and the questions he's asked of Aman, so I'm going to vote this cycle we interrogate Teresh (Drake Marshall). I don't have any other specific suspicions yet, but I'm going to continue trying to analyze the previous cycles as well as trying to keep myself up to date so I can see other patterns.

I haven't updated my Honor tracking for Day 4 yet since I was gone, but we know Arinian lost his bond, and someone else bonded a spren.  @Amanuensis, can a spren be bonded again the same cycle it's bond was broken with someone else?  If so, that Edgedancer spren is probably the bond that was formed, but if not, it could be just about any other spren.  That means of the 8 types of spren, 5-6 have been bonded (depending on that answer), and my guess is that most people went for the more high-profile spren.  If I had to guess, and I like to, I'd say the following spren are bonded by now: Truthwatcher, Edgedancer (possibly unbonded for this round at least), Lightweaver, and Windrunner.  I'm sure people are going for Dustbringer, but if there's one spren that requires a higher threshold of Honor, I'd almost guarantee that would be one.  The other bond or two that has been formed would have to be Willshaper (probably an easier one to get), Stoneward, or Elsecaller. Stoneward is one of the nice roles for the village to have and to keep from the Elims, so if that hasn't been bonded, hopefully one of us will get it soon. 

No one has more than 8 Honor yet, though there should be a number that do (once I run the numbers for last cycle I'll know), so there's a decent chance that some spren require more than that. There should be enough people with 8 Honor that didn't all go for the same spren to have likely bonded the more difficult ones, and those with less Honor may have gone for spren they figured would require less Honor, so I'm a little surprised we don't have more bonds.  Dustbringer, Truthwatcher, and maybe Stoneward actually probably are the three that haven't been bonded yet, I'm guessing, since they're among the most valuable and likely are the most expensive, but I'm still reevaluating my guesses on that (as shown by the differences in the last paragraph and this one).  If anyone has bonded a spren, please make sure someone else knows, preferably a few other people that you at least somewhat trust, just so information isn't lost if you're killed.  That's something I've decided from previous games almost always makes sense.

Ok, that's it for now, I'll put some time into writing RP and will be back at least once more today before the cycle ends.

Right, so far, I have gotten a really helpful impression from Drake, and I'm not really inclined to lynch him yet. I find that I've been agreeing with what he says, and while it could be, as you said, an eliminator trying to gain trust, I'm willing to keep him around for now. 

Oh, and if you look at the vote tally for this cycle, you can definitely see that the Willshaper has been bonded, as Quiver voted for his own execution. Other than that, no spren have been in evidence, unless you count Arin's usage. 

Anyways, as I was saying - And Mage ninjas me. Fantastic.

 

I actually can confirm that there is now a Dustbringer.  I did go for it (It was between that and Stoneward, and I decided that Dustbringer suited Balthazar just a little more.  I wouldn't mind opinions on that, actually.  What do you guys think the best spren for Balthazar? :P)  And I was notified that another initiate has been chosen.  Which, I admit, is rather frustrating. :P  I intend to keep going for it, in the hope that I'll get it eventually.

A Dustbringer has been bonded? Oookay. I guess we'll be seeing someone spontaneously burst into flame soon, then. That. That throws my guesses out of whack. 

Seeing as actual discussion seems to be beginning again, I do not advocate lynching an inactive after all! :) 

I'll come back before rollover tomorrow to give my final thoughts. 

Goodnight!

 

Edited by Doc12
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5 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I actually can confirm that there is now a Dustbringer.  I did go for it (It was between that and Stoneward, and I decided that Dustbringer suited Balthazar just a little more.  I wouldn't mind opinions on that, actually.  What do you guys think the best spren for Balthazar? :P)  And I was notified that another initiate has been chosen.  Which, I admit, is rather frustrating. :P  I intend to keep going for it, in the hope that I'll get it eventually.

I'm still somewhat suspicious of Arinian, but I'm not sure what exactly we can do about him right now.

That's actually not good to hear, though hopefully it was at least an Honorable who got the Dustbringer spren.  I was hoping it was more expensive, which means the ones that haven't been bonded probably aren't more expensive, but we haven't had enough people putting Honor towards them.  If people are splitting their Honor instead of putting it all towards one spren, though, the ones that are less sought-after would probably be the unbounded ones, then.

@Doc12, thanks for the reminder about Quiver's vote, I'd seen that but forgotten that we had that confirmation of the Willshaper bond.  That's two confirmed of the 5 currently bonded spren, with one possible if the Edgedancer spren was already bonded again.

@A Joe in the Bush, replying from the previous cycle I think, but Kintas never lied, he didn't claim to be from Roshar. :P

Lastly, I completed my Honor count from last cycle (almost everyone got either 2 or none, so we're separating the active from the less or inactive even more when it comes to Honor count). 7 players have 8 Honor apiece, while another 4 have 7 Honor (some of that is already spent towards getting a spren or maintaining a bond, of course, but they've earned that much).  Those are the most likely players to have a bond.  Since this isn't exactly a secret nor information anyone else couldn't put together if they have the time, here's the players I believe have enough Honor to gain spren:

8 Honor (most likely candidates): Alvron, Doc, Drake, Magestar, randuir, Lopen, and myself.

7 Honor (decently likelihood): Joe, Rae, Ecth, and HH.

Arinian had a spren, and he's earned a total of 6 Honor throughout the game (he'd have 8 if he hadn't been imprisoned that one cycle, I suspect), so we know that anyone with 6 could potentially be bonded too.  Assassin and Silver could both have spren, in that case, while the rest of the players are much less likely to have one.  I'm gonna guess that most of the players with spren are in the first two lists, though, since Arinian would also have been there if not for being imprisoned.

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7 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

 so we know that anyone with 6 could potentially be bonded too.  Assassin and Silver could both have spren, in that case, while the rest of the players are much less likely to have one.  I'm gonna guess that most of the players with spren are in the first two lists, though, since Arinian would also have been there if not for being imprisoned.

The first bonds formed at the start of cycle 3, so the lowest honor requried could be (3 or ) 4 for at least 2 spren.

Edited by randuir
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3 minutes ago, randuir said:

The first bonds formed at the start of cycle 3, so the lowest honor requried could be (3 or ) 4 for at least 2 spren.

Yeah, I know, but anyone with a spren bonded at that time would have needed to have earned at least 5 Honor by now to have kept it.  If two people invest in the same spren, the one with more invested into it gets it, too, which is why I'm leaning towards those with the most Honor also being the ones who have unbroken bonds, and since only one bond has been broken (by reasons we all know), we know that no one with less than 5 Honor could even possibly have a spren right now.

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21 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

That's actually not good to hear, though hopefully it was at least an Honorable who got the Dustbringer spren.  I was hoping it was more expensive, which means the ones that haven't been bonded probably aren't more expensive, but we haven't had enough people putting Honor towards them.  If people are splitting their Honor instead of putting it all towards one spren, though, the ones that are less sought-after would probably be the unbounded ones, then.

It costs at least 6 Honor.  <_<  I'm kinda hoping it was a Unjust, just so they can get lynched and pass the bond to me, but I realize that's not exactly logical. :P   It probably costs 8 all totaled, which is why I didn't get it last cycle.  I forgot to put in the order to spend my honor.  -sigh-

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