Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss

[Elbereth]

4 minutes ago, Herowannabe said:

Orlok- Completely inactive, which is a shame. Last time I checked he hadn't even logged into the site in over 2 weeks. I'd be willing to lynch him for CC purposes, but I don't suspect him at all.  

Umm. Did you miss his post not twelve hours ago...? 

 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Yep, still here. Getting there, with the analysis, now. Got another few hours done last night. On track to have a post up by the end of this day cycle!

[A Joe in the Bush]

I am alive. I am a confirmed villager who is still alive. I am active, and analysing, and they killed a barely active coinshot instead of me.

>.< I'm being played.

Herowannabe what were the results?

[Magestar]

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I am alive. I am a confirmed villager who is still alive. I am active, and analysing, and they killed a barely active coinshot instead of me.

>.< I'm being played.

Obviously, Joe, you're just not that much of a threat!  

I'm still pretty suspicious of El, but if nobody else sees it that way, I'll have to look through my suspicions again.  I might reread the first several cycles in light of the information we have to try and get some more suspicions going.

I know a few people have been suspicious of me, but if I could say one thing in my defense, I'd never go inactive as an Elim.  It's just too exciting, plus, as easy as it is to survive by going quiet in LG's, I just don't like that play style.  Being an Elim is fun.   

---

Carmichael snuck up to the Mysterious Manor.  It somehow had managed to exist in Tyrian Falls for an inexplicable length of time without acquiring a name, without anyone learning the name of the owner, and without a single person figuring out how all that food had gotten there the night of the first death.

If that wasn't suspicious, Carmichael didn't know what was.

And so, here he was, slowly creeping along the outer wall of the manor, looking for a way in.  After a few moments, he saw it!  A window, placed a few feet above the ground.  Carmichael rubbed his hands together.  You couldn't live as long as he had, doing what he did, without having to get out of a few dead end alleyways.  There was always someone unhappy to have lost all their money, and escaping them was half the fun!  

Taking a look at the Manor, Carmichael backed up, took a running start, and slammed his foot into the wall.  Using his momentum, he took a few steps up the wall, grabbed onto the windowsill, and pulled himself up.  That had gone well.  Now for the next bit.

Randomly assigning skills to your character as needed is fun.  

[Herowannabe]

7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Umm. Did you miss his post not twelve hours ago...? 

 

Whoops, I got Orlok and Wonko mixed up. My bad. In that case, I'm going to put Orlok firmly in the "analysis pending" category until he has a chance to finish catching up and analyzing the thread.

 

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I am alive. I am a confirmed villager who is still alive. I am active, and analysing, and they killed a barely active coinshot instead of me.

>.< I'm being played.

Herowannabe what were the results?

uh... go read my last post more closely, I made my thoughts known as clearly as I could in there. 

If you are being played, I assure you it's not by me. 

[Wyrmhero]

8 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I am alive. I am a confirmed villager who is still alive. I am active, and analysing, and they killed a barely active coinshot instead of me.

>.< I'm being played.

Herowannabe what were the results?

"Jack," I said, resisting the urge to vote for him out of protest, "mind telling us why you've just outed a potential Seeker or Mistborn because you think you're more important to the village than a Coinshot?" Maybe El had the right of it when she refused to tell him what she was. "I mean, it's all very well to say you've been played, but I wouldn't mind some supporting evidence to say it was him."

[Elbereth]

People seem to be missing a lot of things this cycle?

Wyrm, Joe was scanned by Arinian, who then died several cycles ago and was revealed to be a village seeker. That's what he's referring to, here. 

[little wilson]

Joe, it sounds like there might be a slight mayorial issue. Personally, I'm not surprised you're still alive right now. In another cycle or two, I will be, but right now? Not really. I was surprised when Bugsy was killed rather than you or Drought last cycle. You might be right about being played (you probably are, if my own games of being in your position are anything to go off of) and Hero might be Spiked (I'm still torn about that, but I trust him more now than I did before PMs were up temporarily), but I don't think that this situation warranted outing Hero's role, especially since it sounds like he did what you asked him to.

My guess is that the Spiked panicked when Drought was more active during the night, since it seemed like he was thinking about using his role. So they killed him before he could really start killing them. Not what I would've done, since Drought didn't even kill El when Joe told him to, so it was unlikely he'd kill on his own discretion, but, yeah. I'd guess tonight will be either Hero or Joe (or both), and since we don't have a Lurcher left, it's all but guaranteed to succeed.

One other thing: I don't think it's a team of Mistborn anymore, unless they're somehow not drawing Tin or drawing Tin at the same time. I'd guess that there are only one or two Mistborn alive. Could be a Mistborn/Roleless team, but I think they probably have a Misting or two on the team as well. Smoker and Lurcher at the very least.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm about 850 posts into my analysis so not up to date, and will get a post up at some point in the next 36 hours, as soon as I'm done. 

For now, I would point out that Lopen was the only village lurcher, and didn't protect Wilson, who was attacked and saved N1, and hasn't been attacked since, unless it was N7 or later. I am of the view that it was certainly a WGG, as an attack and save would likely result in her later death once discussion of the WGG wore off - Wilson is indisputably dangerous to the eliminator team, when a villager.

Other evidence implicates Wilson, but I haven't completed my analysis yet, and will post a complete "profile" when I get to the end of the thread. 

Significantly more thoughts to come, but don't want to see this day wasted, and think it's getting close enough that waiting until I'm done and missing the day could result in the game becoming unwinnable. 

 

[little wilson]

2 hours ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

I'm about 850 posts into my analysis so not up to date, and will get a post up at some point in the next 36 hours, as soon as I'm done. 

For now, I would point out that Lopen was the only village lurcher, and didn't protect Wilson, who was attacked and saved N1, and hasn't been attacked since, unless it was N7 or later. I am of the view that it was certainly a WGG, as an attack and save would likely result in her later death once discussion of the WGG wore off - Wilson is indisputably dangerous to the eliminator team, when a villager.

Other evidence implicates Wilson, but I haven't completed my analysis yet, and will post a complete "profile" when I get to the end of the thread. 

Significantly more thoughts to come, but don't want to see this day wasted, and think it's getting close enough that waiting until I'm done and missing the day could result in the game becoming unwinnable. 

 

Oh, Joe and I discussed this very briefly while PMs were up and we're both convinced that the Spiked protected me. I don't know why they did. Joe posited the idea that they didn't want anyone to die N1, and I could potentially see that, given a team composed of a number of Mistborn (and some other roles). I wonder if maybe they wanted to play me by having their Lurcher claim to me at some point in the early game, but then PMs went down and they couldn't. But I don't really care about why they attacked me and protected me, because we can run around in circles all day about that.

You wanna know why I haven't been attacked since? Maybe it's because I haven't been terribly active. Maybe it's because I defended Dalinar and Nyali. Maybe it's because Arinian never scanned me so I'm not confirmed. Maybe it's because I'm not a threat to them because my suspicions are wrong.

You know what pisses me off more than anything, Orlok? When people claim over and over that I'm "indisputably dangerous" to the opposition. I am human and I can and do make mistakes just like any other player. When you label me with that kind of reputation, it makes me seem more important or more right than 99% of the other players and that's not the case. Sure, I can be good. So can a lot of players. My best comes when I'm fully invested in a game, taking notes and analyzing, but guess what? I DON'T DO THAT ANYMORE. I WILL NEVER DO THAT AGAIN. Do you know what it's like to die 15 games in a row, Orlok? Do you know what it's like to hear people say things like you did, and know that that's exactly the reason why you have no hope of surviving a game in the near or even distant future? Do you remember how pissed off you were after you died so many times by cycle 2? Take your rage then and multiply it by about 100 and you might come close to how I feel right now. So knock it off with those comments that put me in an entire other sphere. I am human. I am not perfect. I am not always right. Stop acting like I am. Stop perpetuating my overblown rep, or you can bet that I will recreate a kill list and you will be the only name on it. Ever.

[Sart]

Sart stared at Jack. The fool had gone and made a list without any vestige of proof. Even worse, he was due to be lynched if the idiots actually followed the man's plan. Apparently the man couldn't be Spiked, so killing him was off the table, at least for now. "Being the wasing of ising of back. Ising the being of ising." With that proclamation, Sart pulled out his own list. Loathe as he was to abandon the gag, he decided to put a translation on his writing so that the town could understand.

• Abundance Org (Wonko): "Ising the being of good of wasing" The man had been scanned, but was too much of a coward to hide his face.
• Jack Tormander (A Joe in the Bush): "Ising the being of hasing. Ising the being of not of willing of hasing." He had information that apparently related to several people, possibly exonerating them. @A Joe in the Bush what do you know about Stick and Herwynbe?
• Elbereth (El): "Being the ising of being of aming. Hasing the being of ising." Sart agreed with almost all of her thoughts. Now that the girl was focusing, he trusted her with his life.
• Senn Conrad (Seonid): "Wasing the ising of being. Hasing the ising of not." The nobleman had one of the best voting records out of all of them. Sart just wished he would show his face.
• Remart (Jondesu): "Being the killing of Nyah. Hasing the not of ising of Herwynbe." The glutton was most likely good due to his actions of Day 4. He also didn't like the Terris steward much.
• Locke Tekiel (OrlokTsubodai): "Being the ising of wasing of being. Being the ising of being." The nobleman had finally come out of his hideout, and was finally participating. Sart doubted the man was evil.
• Carmichael (Magestar): "Being the voting of good of wasing." Other than the vote on Nyah, Carmichael had a solid voting record. Unfortunately, the narcissist had gone quiet as of late.
• The Crazy Person with No Name (Stink): "Hasing the being of not. Wasing the being of laughing." Although he voted for himself on day one, that man's bravado had quickly fled, and he was currently in hiding. Sart didn't think the Spiked would pull that kind of stunt.
• Mr. Hoid (Conquestor): "Hasing the being of wasing of ising of Remart (Jondesu)" That clown was way too focused on Jondesu. For some reason, that made Sart want to trust him, but he couldn't be sure.
• Herwynbe (Herowannabe): "Being the ising of wasing and willing. Hasing the being of Nyah." The steward confused Sart. He wasn't sure if the man was Spiked or not. His defense of Nyal made Sart suspicious, but his other actions were more benign.
• Whistler (Little Wilson): "Hasing the being of hasing of wasing of death. Hasing the ising of why." Likewise, the whistler was also on Sart's watch list. She had been attacked though, which made Sart want to trust her.
• Aralis (Araris Valerian): "Being the ising of wasing of not of Fuzzy (Assassin in Burgundy) Being the not of ising." The old man had focused a lot on Assassin. That wasn't a bad thing, but in recent days, Aralis was actually following Fuzzy's lead, which struck Sart as odd.
• Fuzzy (Assassin in Burgundy): "Being the lynching of Reginald (Dalinar) Hasing the ising of not" The Jaist had lynched Dalinar, but that was the only good thing he had done. He wasn't even praising the Ja anymore!
• Wyl Sharpe (Wyrmhero): "Ising the wasing of being of Nyal. Ising the being of evil of wasing." The guardsman had voted for Nyal, but that might have been a disguising tactic. Sart also remembered that Wyl had never voted for Reginald (Dalinar).
• Stick (Stick): "Ising the being of Stick of being the evil." The man hadn't done anything good for the village. He might simply be incompetent, but Sart doubted it.

There. That list should refute Jack's arguments. Now he just need to get Jack to see his way of thinking. It would be difficult to do that while talking in High Imperial, but Sart was up for the challenge.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Sart
Forgot Seonid

[Jondesu]

@Sart: *slow clap* I have to seriously applaud your High Imperial and how you've made your posts still understandable (since the first couple).  Definitely not a cosmetic role I would have even considered.

On topic: I like seeing these lists, and while I don't have my thoughts currently organized well enough to present one of my own, other people's lists give me a chance to compare my own thoughts with how others have been perceiving those people, or see if I've been completely ignoring someone.  That's kinda how I realized how hard I was tunneling on Herwynbe, too, and while I'm not just assuming he's good now, I've been spreading out my suspicions a lot more now.

I think the idea that Wilson is Elim is probably silly this game, after all the discussion about that from the first cycle.  She could have pulled a WGG, sure, but I think at this point she's alive because the Elims know that her being alive will make some people suspect her, and will draw discussion.  She's more of a help to them as a distraction to us regardless of alignment, but I don't think there's a very high chance she's Spiked.

I also agree with Wilson's assessment that we'd likely have seen more cycles with Tin if there was a whole team of Mistborn, and/or more kills in the night from them.  It's possible they keep drawing other roles that don't end up having effect, but if there were 4-5 Mistborn, surely we'd have had Tin more than twice so far.  I'd lean towards guessing at least 1-2 are roleless, but they certainly could be smokers or lurchers (it's almost certain that the Spiked have a Lurcher or else rolled Iron at least a couple rounds, in my opinion).  In fact, do we remember someone claiming to have protected Dalinar?  I can't recall if Lopen said he did or not.  If not, then definitely that would have been a Spiked Lurcher or a Mistborn with Iron, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did have a Lurcher.

Right now we have single votes against Sart, Hero, Wilson, and Wyrm.  I hate to spread the field more, but I'm not particularly feeling the votes against Sart or Wilson as being likely, I already mentioned that I don't want to keep tunneling on Hero, and I had Wyrm marked as leaning village.  Instead, I'm leaning towards Araris this round.  Hero noted that he'd been flying under his radar, and I feel the same, and Sart noticing that he'd sort of switched tones with Assassin is interesting to me.  He was one of my low-active suspicions, participating certainly, but seeming maybe to be trying to just not draw a lot of attention from anyone, either for what he says or for inactivity.

[Elbereth]

This post comes in... multiple parts. Probably three. 

1. Orlok and that last post of Wilson's have now confirmed my paranoia of Wilson into outright suspicion. I'd forgotten about the first-cycle attack, mostly. And Orlok is right, even if he didn't phrase it well - there are very few teams that wouldn't have attacked Wilson again by now. Regardless of whether that's right or not. The three people who wouldn't are basically me, Joe, and Orlok. I know I'm innocent, Joe's cleared, and Orlok's the one accusing you, so... I highly doubt that anyone else wouldn't have attacked you by now. 
Of more relevance to me is that you didn't refute him. You're not annoyed at all at him calling you evil, nor did you try to shift the blame onto others. You essentially ignored that part. 
And a third point is that honestly? You seem really stressed. :/ And particularly if you're evil, that makes sense - you have expectations on you again. You're working hard on this game. Of course you're stressed.

2. I am worried about you. I do think you're right. Orlok was perpetuating your reputation, and that's not something that should be encouraged. I don't think he's wrong - most teams would've killed you by now, as I said. But it was definitely not well worded. Because killing you isn't necessarily their most strategic move, and definitely not in this case. That doesn't mean they wouldn't. But they shouldn't. And making them believe that is hard, and making people more afraid is easy. So it shouldn't have been said in that way. 
But I'm worried because I think you overreacted. What happened to not being aggressive in games? What happened to the meta getting worse over time because people are getting more aggressive? That final couple of sentences was too far, I think. Orlok is your friend. You definitely have a right to get angry at him for doing something that you think is wrong. But you know he didn't do it intentionally, and how much he cares for you as a person. 

So I don't think you're completely in the right, either. Nether of you are. As usual. >> You are a good player (as shown, for instance, by the fact that I think you've flown under the radar for eleven storming cycles as an eliminator without being caught even despite your rep). Was Orlok exacerbating the problem with his comment? Yes. Is that a bad thing? Yes. Should you have reacted how you did to it? I personally don't think so. 

Please don't lose a friendship over this? :/ 

[Assassin in Burgundy]

@Sart, thanks for reminding me. I completely forgot about cosmetic roles.

Fuzzy hadn't spoken much over the past few days, but it was time. He faced the crowd, and said "Rejoice! My faith in the Ja has lapsed, but now it has returned, and stronger than ever! I have walked the path, and seen the Ja's light. Never again will I stray from it. Never again will darkness intrude upon his divine presence. Never again. Praise the Ja."

[Araris Valerian]

I guess I'll put out my 2 cents. I don't think that Wilson is an eliminator. I think her history of being killed early on means that it's pretty safe for an elim team to leave her alive until she is lynched. Not to mention that she is a really scary elim player in my experience, so the village is often after her.

I also would have to disagree with Elbereth about Wilson's reaction. I was a part of the dead doc last AG, and she got kinda frustrated then too.

As for Assassin, I stand by all the arguments I made against him, and I don't think I've backed him up at all. However, I think the things I don't like about him are not necessarily alignment indicative. Actually, they are kind of things I would think would be rooted out in an elim doc. So it's hard for me to decide how much a possible Spiked Assassin would be influenced by teammates, and for now I'm going to stand by my decision and not vote for him.

For now I'll vote on Sart. I'm hesitant to say too much about the Dalinar lynch round 2, since enough of the village was convinced of his alignment that extra votes would have just been pointless bandwagon, which is why I also didn't vote on him. So my main beef here is disagreeing with his reasoning to vote on Wyrm. However, I'd also be up for lynching Jondesu. I'm in agreement that Elbereth and Orlok are likely not elims, because they could rejoin an elim team without needing super analysis posts.

I'd guess that at least one elim is in the low to complete inactive category, as well, but it isn't really worth looking there right now when we have discussion going on.

 

[little wilson]

I didn't refute it because there's no point in refuting it. It's not true, simple as that. And shifting the blame to others is now a villager thing to do? Fascinating. Because I'm fairly certain that if I had gone and blamed others, you'd be commenting on that instead.

You're wrong though. If I were actually analyzing and being really active, sure, you, Joe and Orlok would be some of the only ones who wouldn't have attacked me. But there are plenty of teams who don't worry about the people who are less active or inactive. If you're not analyzing or posting much and hardly keeping track of the game, you're not much of a threat, and there's no reason to kill people who aren't threats. So you might want to widen that group of people who could be evil, because there are plenty of others who would fall into the category of not worrying about threats.

I don't feel like I over-reacted, and honestly I'm surprised that you think I did. You and I have had this conversation many times. You know exactly how I feel about my rep and how I'm likely to react to certain comments, regardless of who makes them. I removed myself from the metanarrative and refuse to respond to certain titles because of a comment about my DnD classification being Lawful Evil and no one disputing that (side note for everyone: I'm very Lawful Good). That was an over-reaction, though it's definitely not one I regret. This has been building for a long time, and you know it because we've talked about it. I stopped analyzing and being as active in the games because of it, but that lower activity doesn't matter if my own friends continue to contribute to my rep. It might be that I just need to stop playing altogether. Is that the case? I'm genuinely asking. You know my thoughts better than almost anyone, and even you're contributing to it to a degree. So be honest: do you think it'll ever end, no matter what I do?

If not, this is my last SE game. It's an added unnecessary stress and if nothing I do while playing will remove or reduce it, then I will simply stop playing. That's how completely serious I am about this. I'm done with the overblown rep. I'm done with people saying that it's indisputable that I'm so dangerous that I must be killed if I'm village. I dispute that, and if no one else will, then I'm done with SE.

[Elbereth]

43 minutes ago, little wilson said:

I didn't refute it because there's no point in refuting it. It's not true, simple as that. And shifting the blame to others is now a villager thing to do? Fascinating. Because I'm fairly certain that if I had gone and blamed others, you'd be commenting on that instead.

You're wrong though. If I were actually analyzing and being really active, sure, you, Joe and Orlok would be some of the only ones who wouldn't have attacked me. But there are plenty of teams who don't worry about the people who are less active or inactive. If you're not analyzing or posting must and hardly keeping track of the game, you're not much of a threat, and there's no reason to kill people who aren't threats. So you might want to widen that group of people who could be evil, because there are plenty of others who would fall into the category of not worrying about threats.

I don't feel like I over-reacted, and honestly I'm surprised that you think I did. You and I have had this conversation many times. You know exactly how I feel about my rep and how I'm likely to react to certain comments, regardless of who makes them. I removed myself from the metanarrative and refuse to respond to certain titles because of a comment about my DnD classification being Lawful Evil and no one disputing that (side note for everyone: I'm very Lawful Good). That was an over-reaction, though it's definitely not one I regret. This has been building for a long time, and you know it because we've talked about it. I stopped analyzing and being as active in the games because of it, but that lower activity doesn't matter if my own friends continue to contribute to my rep. It might be that I just need to stop playing altogether. Is that the case? I'm genuinely asking. You know my thoughts better than almost anyone, and even you're contributing to it to a degree. So be honest: do you think it'll ever end, no matter what I do?

If not, this is my last SE game. It's an added unnecessary stress and if nothing I do while playing will remove or reduce it, then I will simply stop playing. That's how completely serious I am about this. I'm done with the overblown rep. I'm done with people saying that it's indisputable that I'm so dangerous that I must be killed if I'm village. I dispute that, and if no one else will, then I'm done with SE.

Meh. Point enough, and currently not important. 

Well... yes and no? Because the thing is that, in my opinion, you are currently still thought of as 'indisputably dangerous', regardless of whether you actually are or not. (And, really - you are dangerous, certainly. Just like Joe is dangerous. Or like Alv is dangerous. Indisputably so. I doubt he meant it in any sense more than he would when referring to either of them - only difference is that he has reasons for suspecting you, and he doesn't for Joe or me or whoever.)

Gah. I... don't know. Well... One, I think it's been getting better. Honestly. When's the last time someone made a joke about your rep? When's the last time before this that someone commented on your rep? The lawful evil thing, which was maybe a month ago? And before that, when you died in LG28? People are slowly getting more supportive. I don't think, personally, that it should be denied that you're dangerous, because I think you are. Just like Joe is. Or I am. I don't think you should be taken out of the top tier of players just because you don't like your rep. Has it gotten overblown in the past? Yes. Is it still? Yes. But I think it is getting better. And maybe that's just me being optimistic, and ultimately it's up to you. 
It also depends on what you mean by 'end'. I don't think there ever won't be jokes about your rep on occasion. But I think that as is already happening, people will shut those down because they know that you don't like that. You killed the BG, after all, and people stopped invoking her pretty immediately. You've played two games in this relaxed state, as opposed to the previous twenty or so as an excellent player. It'll take a lot of time for people to stop viewing you as an important threat - but I do firmly believe that it can and will happen eventually. 

Hm. To be clear, until that post I think I did still view you under your old rep. I thought of the relaxed state as a temporary thing because you needed to destress. I have now... perhaps not completely, but at least partly put you down a tier onto that of... Lopen, perhaps? Not a perfect analogy but the best I can think of right now. 

I think the most important thing is that SE cares, Wilson. It takes a while and a lot of stubbornness to change, but you've got that. I care. Orlok cares. We care. And things can change. 

[STINK]

Oh btw, you guys are saying that only like three people would leave Wilson alive till now? Cause that's wrong, seeing as leaving her alive apparently means she's gonna be lynched. 

And don't forget, to vote on AiB. I will when i get home.

[Stick.]

I am doing some serious analysis right now. Starting from Night 0. I'll be back with mind-blowing results.

[STINK]

All that just to find out that AiB is evil?

[Stick.]

Welp. Turns out, analysing stuff frustrates me. All those posts are now jumbled up in my head. I guess I'll just have to look at the remaining players and consider the odds...how many elims may be alive at the moment? Five? Six?

[Magestar]

I'm also going to vote on Assassin in Burgundy.  I've been suspicious of him for a bit, and I don't mind seeing him dead.  I kind of wonder why Stink is so suspicious of Assassin, and would like to see more on that, but I don't see any cons in lynching him, and I'm not certain about the other lynches.

Edited February 11, 2017 by Magestar

[STINK]

Mate, weren't you inactive?

[Magestar]

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Mate, weren't you inactive?

Me?  I went inactive/quiet for a bit.  Did you mean to type Mage, not Mate?

Edited February 11, 2017 by Magestar

[STINK]

I meant mate, mate.

And i twas just interested, is all.