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Hmm, El, I think I did read something into your message you weren't saying. It doesn't really clear you in my mind, but it does make me less suspicious. However, I don't have any particularly stronger suspicions either, and I've confided the ones I do have in a few people. I won't retract my vote yet, but if I get any better reads on anyone, I may move my vote before the cycle ends.

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9 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

 3. From what I can see, Drake is voting on me for being the first voter in the game. *sigh* I'm going to post this, and then I will go find where I did the statistics on first voters in every game. Though... actually. I may not have. I did second vote on a person, and the person voted on, but possibly not the voter. @little wilson, I don't suppose you remember?

Um. Hm. I know you did alignment of one of the voters. I thought it was first voter. I know it was in a game where Nyali had mentioned that 90% of the time, the first (or second, whichever it was) voter is an eliminator, and since you were bored in the doc, and we were both curious, you checked with all the games and found it was the opposite here. But I can't remember what game doc it was in. Pretty sure it was after LG 20 though. Possibly LG 25. Maybe. I don't know. Sorry. >>

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Remart snorted.  "If I was trying to seed chaos and tear this town apart, I sure wouldn't be upfront about it yet.  I would keep my head down, not make too much of a fuss, try to just go on about my day.  Calling out someone here as being one of these 'spiked'?  That'd be the last thing I'd want to be the first to do." He scratched his head at that last sentence, then shrugged it off as the effects of the ale he had just finished.

"By my metal leg, I have half a mind to just go haul up anyone who hasn't said a word and toss them out of this place.  El, maybe you were onto something after all.

"What is this whole Abundance Organization thing I've been hearing about anyways?  A bunch of strangers setting up in town just before something like this happens, but then we don't hear much from them once the ash hits the fan?  Where's one of their members to see if I'm making this all up?"

(@Wonko the Sane)

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I'm suspicious of most of the people voting on Conquestor. It seems weird to bandwagon on an inactive on the first Day. It can be difficult to tell who is truly inactive and who is just stuck with a bad schedule if you wait less than 24 hours to call them an inactive. If any of the people voting on Conquestor -- Len, Madagascar, Sart, and Dalinar -- are found to be elims, we should take a look at people who had a lot of votes around that time. At this point in the game, voting on someone for being inactive is meaningless. Anybody can vote on an inactive without having to put much reasoning.

Dalinar's post was very non-committal. He said that he thought I wasn't suspicious -- after I already clarified what I meant with the actives/inactives thing. Next, he said he didn't see the reason for lynching Nyali. Then he claimed suspicion of Nyali. He also claimed suspicion of Lopen and Arinian for voting on Nyali. Finally, he votes on Conquestor as a poke vote. Dalinar looks like he's contributing, but he's not saying anything meaningful. If he thinks that Nyali is suspicious, why not lynch her? If he finds Lopen and Arinian suspicious for voting on Nyali, doesn't this mean that Nyali probably isn't an elim?

I find Dalinar suspicious for his lack of commitment to a certain suspicion. He seems like an elim trying to fly under the radar by talking without contributing.

Can anybody tell me how many games Dalinar has played?

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Senn had again retired to his quarters, where the visions of his past - and what may have been his future - tormented him.

Sorry about the lack of RP, y'all. I meant to get to it, but rollover and newborn and class and work and...

Well, you get the picture.

I've followed the thread, but haven't been able to do any meaningful analysis. Hemalurgic Headshot comes off a little suspicious to me. Normally not enough to put a vote, but I'll do it today. I was going to try and set up some PMs today, but obviously that didn't happen. Oops.

I'd respond to Drake Marshall and Bugsy on the subject of D1 lynches, but I don't have time. Short version is this: the discussion that comes from lynches is far more important than the actual lynch itself this early in the game. It's not a huge deal if our first lynch ends up a tie - in fact, there's almost as much information to be gained from that as there is from a bandwagon. Maybe more. The best option is a hard-fought discussion with close results - that gives information on everyone who participated, and even gives information on those that didn't.

I'll try to get some more contribution tomorrow.

Last note: DO NOT try to guess Meta's role distributions. I'm warning you now. You will get off onto tangents and wrong thinking and it will lead you to make mistakes. He could put in an evil Seeker. He has put in 5 Smokers and a bunch of Vote Manips in the past. He made the Mistborn evil not just once, but twice. He could give them a Coinshot if he wanted. He could make the only Seeker in the game evil. He could put in no Seekers at all, just to mess with us. Do not assume anything. Do not trust your sense of balance. Do not trust common assumptions about how to distribute roles. Meta will beat you at that game. In fact, he already has.

Also - every role is potentially useful, and every role is potentially dangerous in the hands of Eliminators. Nobody's cleared unless you are the Seeker and have proved them.

Except maybe Wilson. And even that is only maybe. @Nyali, you want to know why you haven't seen a WGG in the time you've been here? It's because Wilson pulled the last one off so successfully that even now we're still paranoid about it.

Unless I missed one in the recent past.

I'm inclined to believe her about not liking WGGs. But don't believe for a second that that means that she wouldn't do it if she thought she had a chance and it was best for her team.

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Updated vote tally(there's so many! :lol:):

Elenion(1): Elbereth
Wyrmhero(0): Gamma
Conquestor(4): Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart
Rae(1): Nyali, Mage
Stick(1): Wilson
Nyali(1): Arinian, Lopen
Lopen(1)(*cries): Araris
Orlok(1): Wyrmhero
Elbereth(2): Jondesu, Ecthelion, Drake
Ecthelion(2): Hemalurgic, Straw
Hemalurgic(2): Gamma, Seonid
Wonko(1): Jondesu
Dalinar(2): Arraenae, Lopen

Hmm, y'know, I think I agree with you about Dalinar Rae. I forgot to respond to his question about if Nyali was suspicious for voting on Rae, why wasn't Mage, so I will now. I was suspicious of Nyali for her vote on Rae because I felt like she over stated how suspicious Rae's post was. Mage's vote was almost exclusively because of the misunderstanding based on Rae's wording for her advice on Lurchers. So the votes weren't very similar.

Anyways, that aside, Dalinar has only posted twice(one was purely RP), and I agree with Rae that he seems non-committal. He semi defended both Rae and Nyali, agreed with suspicion of Elenion but then votes on an inactive, didn't give much of an opinion about the attack on Wilson(which, honestly, I don't have much of an opinion of either, so that point is really weak), and then my last point is that he voted on Conquestor, which is, in my opinion, a really 'safe' place to put your vote.

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Nicki jogged through the streets of Tyrian Falls, trying to gather her thoughts. Her clothes were still stained with the man's blood, but she didn't mind. She'd dealt with worse before. Her feet hit the ground in a repetitive pitter-patter, creating a relaxing drumbeat that drowned out the rest of the world.

The man who died had said not to trust those pierced with metal. He had known something about Inquisitors. What else had he said? Something about not being controlled? Someone had tried to silence him with the spike, and the man had pulled it out, unaware that doing so would just unplug the wound and hasten his death. The man must not have known very much about first-aid.

Nicki snorted. The spike was an odd weapon, but it had done its job. Nicki might be able to use it to find the man's murderer. From there, she might be able to find why someone had wanted to keep this man from speaking.

The man had also mentioned something called Ruin. He'd talked about control, something about not being controlled by ruin anymore. Was it a codename of sorts? It didn't seem like a conventional skaa thieving crew's name. But Nicki had only ever worked with the thieving crews in Luthadel, so maybe the names were different here. Perhaps the man had been part of Ruin and then tried to leave life as a thief. That would explain why he'd been killed. Maybe this Ruin was also coercing Inquisitors such as Nicki's father?

Nicki recognized a streetsign from the informant's description and slowed down. She had arrived. She stopped and then looked around.

Wyl Sharpe's place was in one of the grimier parts of town. The walls and street were covered with ash, and the windows looked like they hadn't been cleaned in years. This was the place where the famous detective Wyl Sharpe worked? He needed to hire a servant. Nicki reread the streetsign. She was in the right place, at least. Now she had to see if the detective was would be willing to take her case. Or if he would be worth the money to hire him.

Nicki took out the spike in her pocket and knocked on the door.

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@Arraenae I think this is around his third.

Conq. Crusade successful. Hmmm... I'm going to vote Dalinar. He's been noncommittal and suspicious of me, and I don't agree with the Elbereth or HH lynches, particularly the latter. HH seems normal to me, although I am a confessed bandwagoneer.

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Herwynbe bustled about, rushing to meet everyone's needs. Filling wine goblets, bringing food, clearing away dirty plates, setting up litter boxes for imaginary cats, and doing whatever else his guests requested of him. As he did, he caught a few snippets of conversation. Just a little here and there, but as the day wound on he began to piece things together. By the forgotten gods! Are they... trying to decide which one of us to kill? For what purpose? Regardless, it is important that my Master know about this.

When he got the chance a few minutes later, Herwynbe slipped out and went to inform his Master of the dreadful news. 

 

Hey everyone, sorry about my silence today. I've been super busy with work and life. :wacko: Unfortunately, tomorrow will be much the same. :( I'll be working essentially a 14 hour day tomorrow, with little to no time to check the thread. I have not had time to read through all the posts so far, just a handful at the beginning and end. Would someone be so kind as to summarize a few of the important points so far? You would have my deepest gratitude, and upvotes. ;)

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People have voiced some basic suspicions and done some RP... But if you really want a concise summary, all you really need to know is the most recent voting tally.

Elenion(1): Elbereth
Wyrmhero(0): Gamma
Conquestor(3): Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart
Rae(1): Nyali, Mage
Stick(1): Wilson
Nyali(1): Arinian, Lopen
Lopen(1): Araris
Orlok(1): Wyrmhero
Elbereth(2): Jondesu, Ecthelion, Drake
Ecthelion(2): Hemalurgic, Straw
Hemalurgic(2): Gamma, Seonid
Wonko(1): Jondesu
Dalinar(3): Arraenae, Lopen, Elenion

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Well, to begin, Conquester.

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

 

Can anybody tell me how many games Dalinar has played?

This is my fourth game I believe? Maybe fifth.

Wow, okay, three votes for not being committal? Well, what was there to be commital about? You yourself have pulled your vote from Nyali, Rae's not suspicious, I don't have enough experience with Wilson to know what happened there

However, considering that you want me to be committal :p, this is the second time you've started voting for someone as the second person. Seems like an effective way to try to create a bandwagon. The inherent wish for self-preservation comes into it as well. Lopen.

Edited by Dalinar Kholin
I can't spell
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fwfMkEc.png

Art!

6 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Hi, I just got online and skimmed through a bit. Then I see Assassin in Burgundy's post and thought, "You know, that would be useful for me to look at because I haven't been on yet." Then I see all the votes on me. :blink: I was pretty shocked, so, could people again say why they would like to murder me on the first day, please?

Why are the people gathering close to me? All I have done is prophesy of there death. I need to get there attention away from me. I will . . . I need to continue my research on hemalurgy.

Conqueshtor, how kind of you to come drink wif a shilly ol' woman like me. I held naught but yer shushpicious abshensh againsht ye. Everyone agreein' with me wash unexpected though amusing. I'm 80 yearsh old but shtill a trendsetter! How flattering. Takesh me back to me youth. The boysh all followed me around back then too!to

*winks and grins a toothless grin*

For now I shall refocush me catsh onto the tinker/Rin/Doc12. The catsh are vicioush creaturesh and are more than capable of tearin' him to piecesh if he don't pet them. Don't go finking Matilda won't throw a cat at any of yoush though, I jusht ain't shure which of you'sh up fer vote is a villager what needsh shavin' or a Shpiked what needsh shlaughterin. Sittin' down and shuttin' up sheems like what someone with somethin' to hide might do. An' shumeone'sh gotta keep up dis "Contri-boo-shin Croo-shade". Plush me cauldron needsh mendin'.

As for a plan, I shuggesht we all grab a cat for comfort, sit round the fire and enjoy each other'sh company in theesh few daysh we have left all bein' alive together.

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1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

Well, to begin, Conquester.

This is my fourth game I believe? Maybe fifth.

Wow, okay, three votes for not being committal? Well, what was there to be commital about? You yourself have pulled your vote from Nyali, Rae's not suspicious, I don't have enough experience with Wilson to know what happened there

However, considering that you want me to be committal :p, this is the second time you've started voting for someone as the second person. Seems like an effective way to try to create a bandwagon. The inherent wish for self-preservation comes into it as well. Lopen.

I mainly pulled my vote off of Nyali because I didn't think it was likely she'd end up being lynched, so I thought my vote on her would be pointless. I do agree with you that Rae isn't suspicious(at least, to me), but the fact that you defended both Rae and Nyali just made me suspicious.

Yeah, I try to help create discussion by actually putting pressure on someone. If I put a single vote on someone while there's like, 10 other players with at least one vote, I'm not really helping all that much. So yes, essentially I am trying to create bandwagons. Or at least make a topic of discussion.

Not sure why you'd put yourself up for the lynch by voting on me, especially when there's like, 3 or 4 other players with at least 2 votes, but such is life. >>

 

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Elenion(1): Elbereth
Wyrmhero(0): Gamma
Conquestor(3): Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart
Rae(1): Nyali, Mage
Stick(1): Wilson
Nyali(1): Arinian, Lopen
Lopen(2): Araris, Dalinar
Orlok(1): Wyrmhero
Elbereth(2): Jondesu, Ecthelion, Drake
Ecthelion(2): Hemalurgic, Straw
Hemalurgic(2): Gamma, Seonid
Wonko(1): Jondesu
Dalinar(3): Arraenae, Lopen, Elenion

Doc12(1): Madagascar

DroughtBringer(1): Stick

(ignore the unwanted space between the last two votes; it won't go away >> )

Conquestor is up for the lynch (edit: wait he's actually not: a tie between him and DK...what happens to tied votes, again?) , though I don't think it'll stay that way since he's now posted and stuff. Looking at the vote tally, it's like everyone's voting on random players. Eh, I guess it how D1 goes...DroughtBringer. He hasn't posted yet *shrug


 

 
Edited by I_am_a_Stick
Noticed the votes on DK
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Sorry that my previous posts might have been a little awkward. I think that is the main reason that I seem suspicious, other than the fact that I'm focusing on Ecthlion, but I can't get twisted up in the trap. This is my first game, so pardon my inexperience. Otherwise, let's get on with it.

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2 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Conquestor(3): Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart

Ack-

*interrupted by horrific hacking cough*

ACK-

shually the catsh *hiccup* retracted Conqueshtor on the groundsh what of the catsh not likin' to eat prey that'sh shtarted moving around, and now they're onto what'sh hish face. The tinker. That guy. Sho realished actually it'sh thish Dalinar Canuck fellow who'sh up for death.

3 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Not sure why you'd put yourself up for the lynch by voting on me, especially when there's like, 3 or 4 other players with at least 2 votes, but such is life. >>

May I ashk what you think it ish?

Edited by Madagascar
fixed typo
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Ignore my previous post - can't edit it for some reason >>

Elenion(1): Elbereth
Wyrmhero(0): Gamma
Conquestor(2):Madagascar, Dalinar, Elenion, Sart
Rae(1): Nyali, Mage
Stick(1): Wilson
Nyali(1): Arinian, Lopen
Lopen(2): Araris, Dalinar
Orlok(1): Wyrmhero
Elbereth(2): Jondesu, Ecthelion, Drake
Ecthelion(2): Hemalurgic, Straw
Hemalurgic(2): Gamma, Seonid
Wonko(1): Jondesu
Dalinar(3): Arraenae, Lopen, Elenion

Doc12(1): Madagascar

DroughtBringer(1): Stick

(ignore the unwanted space between the last two votes; it won't go away >> )

Conquestor is up for the lynch (edit: wait he's actually not: a tie between him and DK... votes what happens to tied votes again?), (edit 2: <--- ignore all that, I keep forgetting to consider some votes. DK is up for the lynch, not Conq) though I don't think it'll stay that way since he's posted and stuff.  Looking at the vote tally, it's like everyone's voting on random players. Eh, I guess it how D1 goes...DroughtBringer. He hasn't posted yet *shrug


 

 
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Herwynbe returned to the grand hall, beating a tray full of pastries. This time, as he circled the Hall he paid closer attention to what was being said, who was saying, as well as who wasn't saying it. 


I'm glad to see that the contribution crusade is being addressed in my temporary absence. Thanks everyone. :)

Along those lines, does someone have a list of players who haven't posted yet since the game began? I want to do something new with the Contribution Crusade this time around. Something I should have been doing right from the beginning of the Crusade. 

I want to PM the inactive players and invite them back to activity BEFORE I start pushing to get them lynched. 

Crazy, I know, right? ;)

Edited by Herowannabe
Fixed formatting
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10 hours ago, little wilson said:

Um. Hm. I know you did alignment of one of the voters. I thought it was first voter. I know it was in a game where Nyali had mentioned that 90% of the time, the first (or second, whichever it was) voter is an eliminator, and since you were bored in the doc, and we were both curious, you checked with all the games and found it was the opposite here. But I can't remember what game doc it was in. Pretty sure it was after LG 20 though. Possibly LG 25. Maybe. I don't know. Sorry. >>

It was actually the first or second time someone posted a second vote on someone in an attempt to start a train on that person. Where I used to play Mafia, that person who cast the second vote was most likely an elim. Here, it turns out to not be true at all, in fact the opposite is true. Elims here seem to be much more cautious with their votes in general. But that's not really something you can rely on to identify or clear people, since it's not as useful a statistic as the opposite case is.

 

My vote on Rae was an attempt to get her to answer my question. I was planning to remove it when she actually did answer, but she still hasn't done so... I guess I'll remove it anyway - I don't really think Rae is that suspicious.

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Augh. Finally, finally caught up. Took me a good few hours, I can tell you that. So for most of yesterday and the day before yesterday, those of you who are on Discord and those of you in LG29 would have known that a very close friend of mine is handling a personal tragedy, and though I have been on the Shard, I have refrained from posting or doing more than just skimming. I should be more active now. Sigh.


For now I shall refocush me catsh onto the tinker/Rin/Doc12. The catsh are vicioush creaturesh and are more than capable of tearin' him to piecesh if he don't pet them. 

Rin blinked an eye open to see a nightmare two inches away from his face. His eyes bulged, and he flailed with a wordless yelp.

This of course, led to him overbalancing on his chair behind the counter, where of course he had fallen asleep the night before. He had been leaning back, fiddling with some new device or other, chair balanced on two legs with his legs propped up on the counter. And yes, flailing had disturbed the careful balance he had negotiated with the chair all night, and now predictably? This led to him landing in a crumpled heap on the floor, groaning. 

He cracked open his eye again, and the nightmare screaming at his face resolved itself into old Matilda the mad - no less nightmarish, but explainable at least. Sighing, he propped himself up, and his groping hands found the device by the floor, slipping it into his pocket. Matilda was still going on about throwing her cats, and he groaned again to let her know that he was alive. 

Finally, he stood and dusted himself off. He must have been more tired than he thought, judging from the too-bright rays of afternoon sun attacking his eyes from the open doorway. Taking a quick glance around his store, he noted that some vials were gone, but there had been some money left on the counter. (Not enough to account for the amount of missing vials, but that was people for you. Some were honest...some werent) Aaaand what was that noise outside? 

Surprisingly, Matilda dragged him to Lord [mystery person whose name I should probably be aware of] manor, where it seemed the entire town was gathered shotting over something or other. It seemed to be getting unusually heated. Were they...calling for people to die? That was...unusual, especially for a sleepy town like Tyrian Falls. 

What...was going on?

Matilda had limped up beside him, and was cheerfully talking away in her quaint slur. He knew for a fact that the woman wasn't always drunk, and was actually a good deal sharper than most people gave her credit for. He rather liked her, to be honest, even if she was currently listing all the ways her cats could have ripped him to pieces cheerfully. From her, he learned that he'd missed a lot while sleeping. Firstly, there had been a messenger last night who died after ranting about some koloss, after which Lord [mysterious person whose name I should be aware of] had actually opened his home to the villagers (Yes, he was jealous he had missed it), followed by some villagers torching down Whistler's shop. Whistler had claimed he saw several figures who had attempted to kill him before he was saved, and now everyone was discussing who the arsonists and attempted murderers could be. 

...Now...now what?


Okay, so I've finally read up on the monster amount of pages, and I'm ready to contribute. I'm not sure how to do this in RP, so I'll analyze here for now,. the first vote of the game was placed by Elbereth on Len, for trying to brush off Wilson's death.She gives some possible thoughts into what this might reveal, and whether the decision to kill Wilson on night one would exclude any number of players from the Eliminator team. This launches a lot of discussion on whether there would be an experienced player on the elim team, and another whole lot of discussion on the likeliness of this being a WGG.

For the record, I don't feel that it's a WGG. Something I've noticed about her lately in the games I've been with Wilson is her frustration at how her rep affects how players view her. And what she says later, that if she did try a WGG, she would just be drawing a lot of unnecessary attention to herself. Anyways, moving on. 

This is followed by Rae posting on the roles in the game and her own advice to each role. I do have some problems with her advice. As many other players have pointed out, getting the tineyes to reveal their number, or any other role, for that matter, only tells the eliminators how many they have to kill to cripple our communications. Other than that, I also feel that her advice is sound enough. As for Nyali's disagreement with her over the vote manipulation, I think what they have come up with is that vote manipulation, if used, should not be used randomly, but should be used to ensure decisive lynches or to save people they are sure are innocent.

After this, Madagascar comes in with some excellent art on the inactives (of which I should no longer be included, thank you) and kicks off the first vote on Conquestor. 

Bugsy gives some thoughts on ciphers and expresses distrust of Rae for giving information which asks roles to reveal themselves. Nyali follows up on this by putting a vote on Rae. Nyali recommends that vote manipulation and vig kills to be used at own discretion, and Seekers should create trust groups. 

Kipper then tries to put a stop to the discussion by pointing out that there are equally valid motivations for a villager or eliminator to save Wilson, and that the attack on Wilson in no way sheds any light on her alignment. Wilson then comes in with a post on her own about why she would be the last person to pull a WGG on. 

Joe comes in with a tier of people who are likely to not want to kill Wilson, and those who might, which frankly I find not very helpful, for as another player points out, the team is not a single voice, and just because one might have been very opposed to it, it does not mean the entire team would follow through. 

Mage puts a vote on Rae due to misunderstanding her post about killing inactives. Araris puts a vote on Lopen for not seeming helpful. Lopen puts a vote on Nyali for allegedly trying to make Rae's post seem more evil. Headshot and Ecth have a quick back and forth on why Headshot finds Ecth suspicious. Dalinar and Straw pop in with quick short posts and votes. 

Ecth brings up a point that i agree with, that the eliminators are going to want us to focus on the attack on Wilson. If it was a WGG, they want it discussed. If it wasn't, it distracts us. Votes on El

There's a series of posts clarifying Rae's original post, which leads to Mage retracting his vote. A crusade on Conquestor forms. Multiple people find Headshot's posts off. Drake agrees that El seems to be trying to direct the conversation.Rae comments on Dalinar's post, which leads to a bandwagon forming on Dalinar. 


I do agree with Drake and Ecth that the people directing the discussion to the attack on Wilson might be eliminators trying to direct our attention,but for now I don't think it's El. As she stated, El would be extremely reluctant to kill Wilson. She would kill her if it's practical later in game, but I think El cares for Wilson enough to put her foot down on attacking Wilson night one. 

On Headshot, I'm not quite sure. He's a new player, so we're bound to be unaccustomed to his playstyle. For now I'm going to watch him, but I'm not going to vote on him yet.

On Dalinar, however, I do find myself agreeing with Rae's post. He lists down a number of people he vaguely suspects, then chooses to throw a vote on Conq, a safe vote. He would be the vote I'm most likely to join.

My impression is a series of targets rising and falling. First was the lynch on Conq, which garnered four votes pretty quickly, which died off when he posted, followed by a series of votes for Headshot, which then began to subside. the current lucky winner of the bandwagon is Dalinar.

As it stands, the votes are very heavily divided now, with no signs of a clear lynch. So I'll solidify the vote with a vote on Dalinar.

EDIT: Just so you guys know, I started typing this post when Hero's post came in, and was still working on it when Nyali's post came in >>
EDIT 2: Also, apparently no one wants to talk to me :( I haven't received any PMs at all :P I'll probably start a few, but I'd love to talk with anyone that wants to. 
Edited by Doc12
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10 hours ago, Arraenae said:

 

I find Dalinar suspicious for his lack of commitment to a certain suspicion. He seems like an elim trying to fly under the radar by talking without contributing.

 

9 hours ago, Elenion said:

@Arraenae I think this is around his third.

Conq. Crusade successful. Hmmm... I'm going to vote Dalinar. He's been noncommittal and suspicious of me, and I don't agree with the Elbereth or HH lynches, particularly the latter. HH seems normal to me, although I am a confessed bandwagoneer.

 

10 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Anyways, that aside, Dalinar has only posted twice(one was purely RP), and I agree with Rae that he seems non-committal. He semi defended both Rae and Nyali, agreed with suspicion of Elenion but then votes on an inactive, didn't give much of an opinion about the attack on Wilson(which, honestly, I don't have much of an opinion of either, so that point is really weak), and then my last point is that he voted on Conquestor, which is, in my opinion, a really 'safe' place to put your vote.

Okay, considering there are still three votes on me, I figure it's time to defend myself (I've never been lynched before/had to defend myself from one so we'll see how this goes).

1st, consider my options when I made my original Post.

A): I could be inactive. This would likely get me either poked or voted on by the crusade. Not to mention it's also not very fun and no one really liked you when you're being inactive because it's boring. Also then you'll be suspicious because you're flying under the radar, plus I had been reading posts/online so I could be accused of lurking. Essentially, not viable. So let's discount this possibility.

B): I could make an accusation/try to get someone lynched. Now, I'm not a super experienced player, and I don't have an strong suspicious. So, if I do this my probabilities of hitting an eliminator are pretty low. If I attempt to chase after someone a couple of things could happen, first, they could be evil, second, they could be good. In the case they're evil there's no particular reason that my analysis will necessarily help get them killed. Me posting agreement makes me suspicious for being eliminator. Me posting disagreement opens me up to contention. Me posting long analysis put me up for being accused through flawed logic (ie Rae, who could have been lynched for no good reason if more people bandwagoned on her. The same is true if I make an accusation on someone who's good, with the addition threat of making a cyclic event. Good people lynch someone good, making good people question if evil people started the lynch, causing good people to kill more good people while the spiked sit back and drink champagne. Additionally, I have no specific information to aid my lynch accusation which will help me.

C): I could try to be helpful with my post (Ie, vote tallies or Rae's detailed suggestions for roles). I'm not any better at strategy then ya'll, so who believed me? I threw up the vote tally cause I thought it would be useful.

D): I can try to diffuse situations I find silly. Like I said, one of the things I find most concerning is a cyclical village lynch. It will most likely be multiple turns before seekers can identify bad guys. So we're likely be running on little to no information for a while.

2nd:, considering that, can you understand why I did what I did? I didn't want to get someone lynched because I just don't find any of the candidates guilty. Lopen, I voted for you because I sincerely find what you did suspicious to me. Sure, voting on people is important because discussion is vital to the village, but there are multiple ways to play. Sure, you can accuse me of flying under the radar, and I get that especially from Rae who has never played with me before. But both @Elenion and @Lopen you guys have played with me before. I don't just throw around accusations because a lot because I don't feel it's helpful coming from me. 

The specific contentions were, "why didn't vote for one of the guys who you found sorta suspicious?"

It's like if you have a .5 suspicion rating and a threshold of 1 to actually think someones evil. I'm noting them, I watch them later in the game to see if there's patterns I'm suspicious of, but it's just not enough to justify a lynch. In the case of Conquester, I voted on him because of A) the crusade, and B:) because I had no one else I wanted to lynch for the aforementioned reasons.

Sigh, I hate long posts. They make me feel vulnerable to counterattack

Edited by Dalinar Kholin
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There was so much potential in this place, William thought on his first time in Tyrian Falls. All these negative emotions, almost floating in front of his eyes. All he had to do was reach out and smother the lovely ones. That sliver of joy you get when you see a friend? Gone. Overpowered by the jealousy of how they managed to get away with whatever you couldn't. Lovers might instead feel no love, and with nothing to replace the spark, slowly untwine apart until their relationship is 'just friends’.

And would it be the work of William? Hopefully, it would be. All the bright, lively emotions were disgusting. You think the world at heart is a happy place? Animals live to make more animals then die to someone stronger. We might think that we've rised above it, but that’s an illusion that I must cast down.

But William had never seen something like this. A man dying in the middle of town, causing friends to accuse friends of murder? And this quickly? Truly, someone must have meddled with this town before William. However, there did seem to be someone that wasn’t joining in the chaos. In fact, she seemed to almost be ignoring it! The dim-witted fool must not be aware of what that could mean in this town, what with all these murderers.

Well then, it would be William’s duty to turn that smile upside-down. And actually make her sober, while he was at it.

----------------------------------------------------------------

@Madagascar, William has officially challenged you to a Conversation! I propose that this Conversation takes place in a PM, with an RP Post from the both of us at the end of the Conversation. If you do not accept the challenge, then William will win by default. A great start.

Anyway, in terms of lynch targets, I don't think Dalinar should die. He's a cool guy right now, I mean that long post? Some good stuff right there. Keep it up!

And I've looked over the other lynch targets, and well, I don't like any of 'em.

STINK.

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2 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

B): I could make an accusation/try to get someone lynched. Now, I'm not a super experienced player, and I don't have an strong suspicious. So, if I do this my probabilities of hitting an eliminator are pretty low. If I attempt to chase after someone a couple of things could happen, first, they could be evil, second, they could be good. In the case they're evil there's no particular reason that my analysis will necessarily help get them killed. Me posting agreement makes me suspicious for being eliminator. Me posting disagreement opens me up to contention. Me posting long analysis put me up for being accused through flawed logic (ie Rae, who could have been lynched for no good reason if more people bandwagoned on her. The same is true if I make an accusation on someone who's good, with the addition threat of making a cyclic event. Good people lynch someone good, making good people question if evil people started the lynch, causing good people to kill more good people while the spiked sit back and drink champagne. Additionally, I have no specific information to aid my lynch accusation which will help me.

C): I could try to be helpful with my post (Ie, vote tallies or Rae's detailed suggestions for roles). I'm not any better at strategy then ya'll, so who believed me? I threw up the vote tally cause I thought it would be useful.

D): I can try to diffuse situations I find silly. Like I said, one of the things I find most concerning is a cyclical village lynch. It will most likely be multiple turns before seekers can identify bad guys. So we're likely be running on little to no information for a while.

If you're village, I can understand your reasoning. It's very tempting to sit back and let the better players do all the accusations for you. Even better if you wait for a seeker, who is confirmed to get the right results.

The issue with this line of thought is that the seeker might not exist. Or they might be Spiked. Or they might have a string of bad luck and keep on hitting people who are Smoked.   Meanwhile, the elims will continue to kill the villagers, one every cycle. The number of elims will stay the same and the number of villagers will drop. Yes, a Seeker, if one exists, could be accurately identify the elims. The problem is that waiting for them is too slow and leads to a game of follow-the-cop. So everybody has to step up and say something.

It's true that your vote isn't particularly likely to land on an eliminator. But that's true for everyone else. The way you find an slim (without a Seeker) is through analysis. Lots of it. When you post your analysis, you generate more analysis. And then others will have more things to analyze. They'll react to your analysis, which in turn will give you more information for your own analysis. Analysis begets analysis begets analysis. And analysis is how we catch elims. I know it can be scary to accuse people, but it's the best way to find the elims. Sometime you have to threaten people a little bit to make them speak. Then you can decide if it's worth pursuing that suspicion or not.

In this case, I'm starting to lean towards you being a villager. I'm not sure I like how certain people, such as Lopen, have reacted to this. I'll take a look at your stuff and decide before rollover.

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7 hours ago, Madagascar said:

 

May I ashk what you think it ish?

What do I think life is? It's a series of unfortunate events that's what. :P

3 hours ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

 

 

Okay, considering there are still three votes on me, I figure it's time to defend myself (I've never been lynched before/had to defend myself from one so we'll see how this goes).

1st, consider my options when I made my original Post.

A): I could be inactive. This would likely get me either poked or voted on by the crusade. Not to mention it's also not very fun and no one really liked you when you're being inactive because it's boring. Also then you'll be suspicious because you're flying under the radar, plus I had been reading posts/online so I could be accused of lurking. Essentially, not viable. So let's discount this possibility.

B): I could make an accusation/try to get someone lynched. Now, I'm not a super experienced player, and I don't have an strong suspicious. So, if I do this my probabilities of hitting an eliminator are pretty low. If I attempt to chase after someone a couple of things could happen, first, they could be evil, second, they could be good. In the case they're evil there's no particular reason that my analysis will necessarily help get them killed. Me posting agreement makes me suspicious for being eliminator. Me posting disagreement opens me up to contention. Me posting long analysis put me up for being accused through flawed logic (ie Rae, who could have been lynched for no good reason if more people bandwagoned on her. The same is true if I make an accusation on someone who's good, with the addition threat of making a cyclic event. Good people lynch someone good, making good people question if evil people started the lynch, causing good people to kill more good people while the spiked sit back and drink champagne. Additionally, I have no specific information to aid my lynch accusation which will help me.

C): I could try to be helpful with my post (Ie, vote tallies or Rae's detailed suggestions for roles). I'm not any better at strategy then ya'll, so who believed me? I threw up the vote tally cause I thought it would be useful.

D): I can try to diffuse situations I find silly. Like I said, one of the things I find most concerning is a cyclical village lynch. It will most likely be multiple turns before seekers can identify bad guys. So we're likely be running on little to no information for a while.

2nd:, considering that, can you understand why I did what I did? I didn't want to get someone lynched because I just don't find any of the candidates guilty. Lopen, I voted for you because I sincerely find what you did suspicious to me. Sure, voting on people is important because discussion is vital to the village, but there are multiple ways to play. Sure, you can accuse me of flying under the radar, and I get that especially from Rae who has never played with me before. But both @Elenion and @Lopen you guys have played with me before. I don't just throw around accusations because a lot because I don't feel it's helpful coming from me. 

The specific contentions were, "why didn't vote for one of the guys who you found sorta suspicious?"

It's like if you have a .5 suspicion rating and a threshold of 1 to actually think someones evil. I'm noting them, I watch them later in the game to see if there's patterns I'm suspicious of, but it's just not enough to justify a lynch. In the case of Conquester, I voted on him because of A) the crusade, and B:) because I had no one else I wanted to lynch for the aforementioned reasons.

Sigh, I hate long posts. They make me feel vulnerable to counterattack

I think I understand where you're coming from, sure. This post gave me a lot better vibes than your first post. At least it's changed my opinion of you enough that I'll remove my vote from you. Dalinar.

I never said there wasn't multiple ways to play, I just explained my actions and motives for voting the way I have. I also haven't interacted with you in previous games almost at all, at least that I can remember(of course, lately I've been dying within the first few Cycles :().

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