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1 hour ago, Alvron said:

Welcome back @AliasSheep.  Did someone try to Invest in you D3?

I'm voting for Araris this round.  He's my best bet for being Hoid.  Kas said he Forged swapped roles with Araris and got nothing back.  Not even an empty vessel role.  To me that says that Araris either doesn't have a role or is Hoid as Hoid's role can't be forged away.  It's not much but it's all I have.

But that's assuming merely b/c he doesn't have a role that he's Hoid. I also don't have a role, and the fact that you made that conclusion, ie if you did the same thing to me and then presumed me to be hoid and cause me to be lynched is highly concerning and also seems like flawed logic. Alvron.

1 hour ago, Aonar Faileas said:

You're putting words in Kas's mouth there, mate. He was distinctly ambiguous as to whether or not Araris had a role. Doesn't mean he's not 17th, but unless Kas shows up and definitely says whether or not Araris gave him a role, your reasoning's faulty. (Ditto for you Len.)

Ditto.

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I guess I accidentally misread Kas, then misled Alv with my gut reads post. Sorry about that. Unless Araris does turn out to have no role, he's off my primary suspects list.

 

My suspects, then, are Mage and Straw. Straw hasn't done anything more than what I've already said that's suspicious, but Mage has. I have concrete reasons for suspecting him, as compared to the gut read on Lopen.

1. Mage wanted Preservation fixed. We've already hashed out that Unshattering all Shards is only good for the 17th, but yet here Mage is, trying to do half of the 17th's work for them.

2. Mage tried to trick Cult. We know that the 17th either lacks Cult or possesses no shattered shards. Coincidentally, or not so much, Mage apparently lacks any sort of knowledge of who Cult is, because he had to resort to deception to try to get his Shard unshattered.

3. The day that we lynched Lopen, a bandwagon materialized on him rather suddenly, late in the cycle. I find that pretty suspicious. The other two players up for lynch at the time were Mage and myself. I know that the wagon wasn't for me, so it must have been to save Mage, who was the second-closest to being lynched. But before you bring it up, I know that for all you know, that bandwagon was to save me, not Mage.

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21 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Arinian, I'm a little confused as to why you retracted your vote on Mage. You gave three reasons for wanting to lynch Mage, them being

1. He is claiming roles erratically

2. He is the Shard of Survival

3. He is just a bad guy.

Mage already answered why I'm retracted vote. But I've done that only cause that was 2 AM in my country and all what I wanted it to sleep(surely not analyze someones posts). 

Soo... Magestar. First reason of erratic role claiming not disappeared. As I said earlier, be invested by Endowment get Shard of Preservation, for me it looks like too many coincidences. Also I want too ask how Mage get Endowment's trust to be invested? There was something in World's PM? Devotion's PM? Or Endowment in hands of 17th Shard? Or Mage just lied about Endowment's investment?

Also I want to ask Bard if his suspicion on me was so big an so solid so that made him change his vote?  And If I'm not wrong that vote count when he changed vote:

Magestar (4) : Bard, Araris Valerian, Lopen, Stick

Lopen (2) : Elenion,  Alvron

Elenion (4) : Kas, Magestar, Doc, Assassin

As we can see his vote saved Mage from lunch. Also I will just quote Bard's post.

Quote

Gah. I am really annoyed right now. I had quite a lengthy post all typed out, then I had an internet blackout the moment I hit 'post', and it got swallowed. This is a short summary of what I typed before because I can't be bothered retyping it.

Mage, Arinian. I'm not voting on any of the 3 main candidates because I'm frankly not suspicious of any of them right now. There was 5 hours of the lynch left, now 4, so I don't think a new vote will take off, but it at least gives the opportunity. Plus, the leading candidate for the lynch right now is Len, and if I did have to vote for one of the three, it would probably be Len, so there isn't any harm in voting to open a new topic of discussion.

Arinian, I'm most suspicious of you right now - part gut read, but you offer very little reasoning, and you say that you agree with everything Len is saying and that you find Len suspicious in different posts, which I find very contradictory. Also, you happened to vote with Alv, who was the person who I found next most suspicious overall out of the people who voted.

Alv, could you elaborate on your cryptic "I think Lopen has one of 3 roles" comment? Is this to do with the claim he apparently implied in the world PM? Do you mind elaborating? I have a slight suspicious read of you, largely due to paranoia, but I see no reason not to trust Lopen at this point.

I originally tagged all 12 (now 10) people who hadn't voted here to try and get them to vote, but I can't be bothered doing that again. People who didn't vote this cycle- I'll be mentioning you right at the beginning of Day 5 to try and make sure you do vote next cycle. I know we don't have much to go on at the minute, but the only way to be sure we have more to go on is to get people talking.

And also why you saying that not suspicious of any of them but already earlier put vote on Mage(isn't it contradictory;))? What I'm think about that all? That you just tried not to get some suspiciouns on you and save your teammate in same time.

Also I want to ask Assassin about your vote change:

Quote

Ok, going with my earlier reasoning, Elenion, Lopen.

As I remember your reasoning for that was that we can't miss lunch. But if I'm not wrong when you changed your vote vote count was something like that:

Magestar (3) :  Araris Valerian, Lopen, Stick

Lopen (3) : Elenion,  Alvron, Drough

Elenion (4) : Kas, Magestar, Doc, Assassin

So you just saved Len(or you was more suspicious of Lopen then Len, but why then you didn't vote against Lopen from start). So the only reasons that I see that you didn't want to lunch Len(cause he is your teammate) or you or me failed in vote count.

For now I gonna put my vote on Mage( yes, again;))

And also I want to ask. Is Stick still worldhoping every turn? 

So that all for now. I think soo... If something is not understandable just don't read it:D.

 

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10 hours ago, Elenion said:

1. Mage wanted Preservation fixed. We've already hashed out that Unshattering all Shards is only good for the 17th, but yet here Mage is, trying to do half of the 17th's work for them.

Mage wanted to have a Shard.  This is true.  Sorry for wanting awesome powers, Len. :P

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

2. Mage tried to trick Cult. We know that the 17th either lacks Cult or possesses no shattered shards. Coincidentally, or not so much, Mage apparently lacks any sort of knowledge of who Cult is, because he had to resort to deception to try to get his Shard unshattered.

Wrong.  I tried to trick Odium.  If I just told the thread that I had a Shattered Shard, an asked Cultivation to fix it, what do you think the odds are that I would get hit by Odium that same cycle?  That's why I tried to make it seem like I was a Mistborn.

Or, perhaps, I'm any number of the other roles that lack knowledge of who the other Shards are.  Let me think.  I believe that's nearly all of them?  Seriously, how is not knowing who Cultivation is a point in favor of me being a Sharder?

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

3. The day that we lynched Lopen, a bandwagon materialized on him rather suddenly, late in the cycle. I find that pretty suspicious. The other two players up for lynch at the time were Mage and myself. I know that the wagon wasn't for me, so it must have been to save Mage, who was the second-closest to being lynched. But before you bring it up, I know that for all you know, that bandwagon was to save me, not Mage.

Except that that Bandwagon rose up counter to the person I wanted lynched.  I not only defended Lopen, especially later in the cycle, I was pretty adamant in my attack on you.  Don't you think, if I was even going to be that blatant with a Bandwagon, I would attack the person I actually wanted dead?  Len, I'm not 17th Shard.  To be honest, I don't know if you are either, but you have less points against me than I do against you, and you haven't defended against them.  I'll admit, it'd be pretty hard, because the evidence is compelling.  But there's almost nothing on me.  Besides that maybe-bandwagon, the other points aren't really valid.

@Master Elodin, what reasons do you have for voting on me, exactly?

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

And also why you saying that not suspicious of any of them but already earlier put vote on Mage(isn't it contradictory;))? What I'm think about that all? That you just tried not to get some suspiciouns on you and save your teammate in same time.

He took his vote off of me because I defended myself adequately.  I answered his questions, and he decided that I wasn't really suspicious.  Why, again, do you think I'm suspicious?

As far as I know, Endowment must have trusted me, to some extent, and gave me the ability?  I did talk about wanting the Mistborn Role ability in some of the World PM's, so Endowment might have seen that.  And why would I lie about Endowments investment?

Finally, if we could look at Len's behavior so far, that'd be great.  There's someone who's been behaving erratically.  He said that, because I claimed Mistborn, I was probably Hoid or Autonomy.  What?  And, refer to my earlier post!  Look at all the evidence against him.

Finally, if I can survive this cycle, I can give you undeniable proof of my innocence.  I think. :P 

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57 minutes ago, Magestar said:

He took his vote off of me because I defended myself adequately.  I answered his questions, and he decided that I wasn't really suspicious.  Why, again, do you think I'm suspicious?

As far as I know, Endowment must have trusted me, to some extent, and gave me the ability?  I did talk about wanting the Mistborn Role ability in some of the World PM's, so Endowment might have seen that.  And why would I lie about Endowments investment?

Finally, if we could look at Len's behavior so far, that'd be great.  There's someone who's been behaving erratically.  He said that, because I claimed Mistborn, I was probably Hoid or Autonomy.  What?  And, refer to my earlier post!  Look at all the evidence against him.

Finally, if I can survive this cycle, I can give you undeniable proof of my innocence.  I think. :P 

Your defence for me not seems so solid to be reason for his vote retract. And also why are you answering for him? Maybe you will let him answer on that question? 

Second. So that how it works I'm saying somewhere that I want some ability and Endowment puts it under my Christmas tree? I will ask again for WHAT Endowment trusted you I don't see any reasons for that. I see reasons why Endowment shouldn't have believe you untill this turn(harambe's vote manipulation and your late vote on him can be interpreted as you his teammate) when was revealed that harambe villager. 

Also, undeniable proof is nice but as I understand even you not sure if you gonna get this proof.

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All I'm going to say about Kas Forging me is that I can confirm it happened, and Kas is lying if he got "role-less" from me.

Also, aside from Dalinar, I'm kinda suspicious of everybody that has mentioned me this cycle. I did post that I would be out of commission for nearly 48 hours, and lynching a vanilla inactive seems like a waste of a lynch. Likewise, defending a vanilla inactive based on the premise that Kas is misinforming us (intentionally or not) is also suspicious to me. If people defended me because lynching inactives is somewhat pointless, I could understand that. But that isn't what happened.

Okay, I went back and read back until when Kas clarified his "scan role." It seems pretty clear to me that Kas was trying to keep my role secret, not to imply that I had no role. So I don't have anything against him. I am suspicious of Elenion, who seems to have jumped on me for little to no reason, and also of Aonar for defending me.

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2 hours ago, Arinian said:

Also, undeniable proof is nice but as I understand even you not sure if you gonna get this proof.

I have this proof.  I'm not sure that you are going to believe it.  I'm currently being lynched, with nothing really against me except maybe one coincidence.  Why should I expect you to believe the facts I'll give you, if you don't believe the facts I have given you?

Finally, how am I supposed to know why people trust me?  If a Shard decides to invest in me, I don't necessarily know why.

Edited by Magestar
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2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Okay, I will vote against Len but that only cause Mage said that "his innocence will become obvious in night". But that last time for this game when I trust someone just on his words.

Unless you're a scanner, most of the time words are all you will have.

edit;  And actions, technically. :P  Those too.  But my statement sounds cooler.

Edited by Magestar
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Hm. It's the third time Arinian has changed votes, and two of them were on the same person. That's rather suspicious..I'd say that Arinian and Mage might be teammates. 'Cause first Arinian votes against Mage (twice) and then votes along with him. I'm going to place my vote on either one of them depending on the current vote tally changes (if it changes at all) 

Yup, only Roshar left :D 

8 hours ago, Arinian said:

And also I want to ask. Is Stick still worldhoping every turn? 

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2 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Hm. It's the third time Arinian has changed votes, and two of them were on the same person. That's rather suspicious..I'd say that Arinian and Mage might be teammates. 'Cause first Arinian votes against Mage (twice) and then votes along with him. I'm going to place my vote on either one of them depending on the current vote tally changes (if it changes at all) 

Actually, as anyone in the World PM could tell you, I kind of badgered/argued with Arinian until he decided to change his vote. :P  I tried to figure out why he was suspicious of me, and in the process, convinced him that it was a better idea to vote on Len. 

I still don't really know why you're suspicious of me, Stick.

Edited by Magestar
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Where's a bloody vote tally when you need one?

Vote Count:
Elenion (4): Magestar, Doc, Araris, Arinian
Magestar (1): Arinian, Elodin, Arinian
Araris (1): Alvron

I'm not sure I understand the votes on Elenion. The main suspicious point I see is his insistence that Odium was using random chance to kill shards. That seemed like a stretch. However, his logic actually managed to lynch Odium. I'm not sure whether that is a point in his favor or not. The logic still doesn't hold water. The new explanation is that Lopen was using his conversion as a rudimentary scan. That makes more sense to me. However, I think Elenion was trying to give a reason for us to kill Lopen. Since Hoid starts out with a list of Shards, the 17th Shard would have a narrow list for people who could have started holding Odium. Thus, he created an excuse to kill Lopen, knowing that Lopen started with a Shard. Even if his hunch that Lopen was Odium was wrong, the 17th Shard would still have killed an active player. Therefore, I will place my vote on Elenion.

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1 minute ago, Sart said:

I'm not sure I understand the votes on Elenion. The main suspicious point I see is his insistence that Odium was using random chance to kill shards. That seemed like a stretch. However, his logic actually managed to lynch Odium. I'm not sure whether that is a point in his favor or not. The logic still doesn't hold water. The new explanation is that Lopen was using his conversion as a rudimentary scan. That makes more sense to me. However, I think Elenion was trying to give a reason for us to kill Lopen. Since Hoid starts out with a list of Shards, the 17th Shard would have a narrow list for people who could have started holding Odium. Thus, he created an excuse to kill Lopen, knowing that Lopen started with a Shard. Even if his hunch that Lopen was Odium was wrong, the 17th Shard would still have killed an active player. Therefore, I will place my vote on Elenion.

That's what I thought.  I think I said so, to, but I might not have.

I thought that the 17th Shard started knowing which Shards which players held, as well?  Or maybe I misread the rules.

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18 minutes ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Elenion (4): Magestar, Doc, Araris, Arinian
Magestar (1): Arinian, Elodin, Arinian
Araris (1): Alvron

There's Len's vote on Mage too :-P

16 minutes ago, Magestar said:

That's what I thought.  I think I said so, to, but I might not have.

IIRC, you voted on Lopen too, Mage. I'm beginning to think all three of you are teammates now. Mage, Len and Arinian 'cause I haven't forgotten how the elims bussed Len in QF20, gained the village's trust, and won, and this seems suspiciously similar

16 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I thought that the 17th Shard started knowing which Shards which players held, as well?  Or maybe I misread the rules.

Hoid only began with the list of players who held shards, the shards weren't specified  

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Who is doing your tallies Sart.  It should look more like this:

Vote Tally:
Len (5): Mage, Doc, Araris, Arinian, Sart
Mage (4): Ari, Len, Elodin, Ari, Stick, Alv
Araris (0): Alv
Alv (1): Dalinar

Anyway, it looks like I was completely wrong about Araris so there's no reason for me to keep my vote on them any longer though I am still hoping that Kas can confirm/deny whether or not Araris had a role.

Len helped lynch Lopen so I'm not inclined to vote for him, while Mage has lied about his role a couple of times and possibly lied about other things.  Call it Paranoia but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be Hoid. Besides.  I want Lor's thumb back.

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  • Alvron locked this topic

LG29: Night Five -

Writeup to come later. Sorry, I was shoveling snow. #BlameTheHighblizzard


Magestar (Magestar) was lynched! His role and alignment will be revealed when he passes to the Spiritual Realm!

Kaloo (TheMightyLopen) has passed to the Spiritual Realm. He was the Vessel of Odium!

The Shattered Shard of Preservation has been removed from the game!

Vote Count:

Mage (5): Elodin, Mage, Alvron, Stick, Len

Alvron (1): Dalinar

Len (4): Doc, Araris, Arinian, Sart

Night 5 has begun, and will end in about 22 hours.

tur_1483650000.png


Player List:
1. Assassin in Burgundy - First of the Game
2. Master Elodin - Second of the Signups
3. Jondesu - Quintus 17th Shard Worldhopper
4. AliasSheep - Kelen Taldar Returned
5. Darkness Ascendant - Kaldain Selblessed
6. A Joe in the Bush - Jack Tormander Returned Agent of Autonomy
7. Doc12 - Silence
8. Kynedath - Desten Kyde
9. TheMightyLopen - Kaloo Vessel of Odium
10. Straw - Malum Farcimen
11. Young Bard - Serol
12. Magestar - Magestar
13. Alvron - Lorna
14. Dalinar Kholin - Sanya
15. Harambe - PUNisher Elantrian
16. I_am_a_Stick - Stic
17. RubiksCube - cubefright archive
18. DroughtBringer - Ralar
19. Araris Valerian - Aralis
20. Arinian - Arinian
21. Zephrer - Tardeick
22. Conquestor - Farallen Oniz Vessel of Preservation
23. Sart - Sam Trudite
24. Aonar Faileas - Nilan Izenry
25. Elenion - emissary of Mandos
26. Kasimir - Tenth of the Dusk

Edited by Alvron
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35 minutes ago, Seonid said:

The Shattered Shard of Preservation has been removed from the game!

Good.  Now Hoid can't get their Instant Win even if they have Culty.

Plus, didn't Mage say he was going to pass Preservation?  I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be a Hoidite.  Trying to trick Culty into unshattering a Shard and then keeping it even after saying he was going to pass it seems like something a Hoidite would do.

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One, I confess to manipping Mage onto himself. I am an Elantrian, and I also was the one who moved that vote in the Lopen lynch.

Two, in lynching Mage with my manip, I have denied the 17th their primary win con. That should offer you something in the way of proving my innocence.

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