Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[Arinian]

38 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Very logical, especially since Devotion doesn't need to be in any of the PMs and I literally got the Devotion PM after the rollover - and it was auto-shut since Devotion was shattered. Interesting.

I know that Devotion can not be in PM created by him. And I misunderstand your post I understand that like you was in PM only with Sheep on previous cycles, from what I assumed that it can be reason how Odium found that Sheep is Devotion.

[Magestar]

5 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I know that Devotion can not be in PM created by him. And I misunderstand your post I understand that like you was in PM only with Sheep on previous cycles, from what I assumed that it can be reason how Odium found that Sheep is Devotion.

Wrong.  The extent of the rules involving Devotion being in her PM's says this;

Quote

Devotion is not required to be involved in any of her PMs, and may put as many players as she desires into any given PM.

And, having been in one of those PM's myself, with Sheep, I can assume he can be in the PM's he creates.  

Also, looking at the original PM, it looks like Sheep just split that into three separate PM's, and replaced Jondesu[DEAD] with Elenion.  It makes sense, to me.

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Cultivation, you may need to pass your Shard to someone you trust soon. If Joe was an Agent of Autonomy, he has likely already leaked your identity to Autonomy. Autonomy can't convert you, but this may just mean that Autonomy is happy to get you Shattered or lynched, since their win con is to have all living players converted.

I agree with this.  Also, if you don't know who has a shattered Shard, well, there are only two in the game, and refills aren't bad either.  Use process of elimination, and start targeting people you trust.  If they've got a Shattered Shard, great, if they don't, then either they get a refill or nothing happens.  I don't know if you're already doing this, but if you are, continue doing it.

On Odium's kill strategy...  I'll admit, it's really, really confusing me.  His hits look really random, not following any of the three or four strategies I've seen used, or would have used myself.  I'd say maybe he's targeting partially active players, just from the looks of it.  Not inactives, or lurkers, but people who are contributing right around normal, but not quite as much as the super active posters?  Idk.  That seems really, really specific to the people who have died, so I might just be making things up to fit the evidence.

I'll not say I'm not feeling the Lopen/Len lynches, because I think they make sense, but I feel pretty equal about both players.  It's equally bad, but it's still equal.  

[Arinian]

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Wrong.  The extent of the rules involving Devotion being in her PM's says this;

Thx, I think I should re-read rules and roles again 

[Kasimir]

@Seonid: Just as a clarification - if Shards are Shattered, can Autonomy convert a person holding a Shattered Shard? Second, if Autonomy is Shattered, can the person holding the Shard then be converted?

---

The message came, whispers down the chain of those who had been at Silverlight.

Two Shards had been Shattered; their vessels slain by the Lord of Hate. Tenth shook his head as he waited for the fish to bite. The sunlight gleamed off the lapping waters, and Kaikoa chirped, head cocked expectantly. He fed the Aviar some scraps of fish. The bird ate.

His thoughts churned, like driftwood. Why all this? He could not put words to this unease. Why now? It was obvious Odium was once again on the loose. Then there was word of the Returned who had been an agent of Autonomy...

He thought again of Khriss, back in Silverlight. A man and a task. So simple, when she had said it. It was never that simple. Not even on worlds other than his own. There was the Wanderer, and Odium, and Autonomy--all of them converging. Into what? Tenth did not know. He looked at the calm sea, but there was nothing beneath.

Sometimes, one of those shadows beneath would surface--devouring an entire boat. No one knew what those were. He hoped never to know, but could not help wondering if those shadows--those leviathans--ever fought. And if they did: who on the ocean was safe?

There was nothing today, however. Still, he glanced at Kaikoa, for reassurance.

Eventually, he put up his nets and continued on, paddling his outrigger canoe, the slap of wood against water his companion.

[Seonid]

@Kasimir Shattered shards offer no protection against conversion

[Dalinar Kholin]

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Dalinar Kholin, the rules explicitly state that 17th Shard cannot convert Odium, Autonomy, or Survival (or, I suppose, the Agent of Autonomy - but this is an inference.) Autonomy cannot convert other Shards or Hoid. If we kill Odium, the Shard passes - but not the win condition. This is also stated in the rules. Same goes for Autonomy and Survival. This means that technically, Autonomy and Survival are all right with passing their Shards if they can see a way to fulfil their win con by doing so. Odium is less likely to, since their Shardic ability is required to fulfil their win con.

Cultivation, you may need to pass your Shard to someone you trust soon. If Joe was an Agent of Autonomy, he has likely already leaked your identity to Autonomy. Autonomy can't convert you, but this may just mean that Autonomy is happy to get you Shattered or lynched, since their win con is to have all living players converted.
 

My apologies, thank you for the explanation. 

[Elenion]

Okay, let me elaborate on my kill pattern suspicions.

Mage, you note that the kills are not following standard protocol. I agree. Most recent kill patterns have been targeting the most active players. This new kill pattern appears to be either random (my hypothesis) or due to contacts. The problem I have with the contacts strategy is that Hoid and Auto can't convert Odium.

Kas, you bring in a few more names to add to my suspect list. Alv I will agree on; he's now in the same bracket as you. I had forgotten about his tactics in LG24. I don't think Araris has even been active enough to keep a Shard, so he's out. I've played a few games with Aonar and Sart, but neither of them stood out as the kind of player who would sacrifice kill efficiency for subterfuge, although as I said I may be wrong about one or both of them. All things considered, I don't find either of them nearly as suspicious as <Lopen, Kas, Alv>, any of whom I wouldn't put an RNG kill past.

My final verdict is this: I would be willing to bet that between Lopen, Kas, and Alv, one is Odium. Lopen is my prime suspect in both gut read and logic, and I am willing to commit myself to that lynch no matter how unpopular. We need decisiveness to catch Odium, and I'm going to try to supply it.

[Arinian]

My list of suspicions is almost identical to Len's with some changes. I absolutely don't sure about Kas he is not suspicios I just can't get any read on him. Also I want to remind you about harambe and his vote redirect, he could make lynch on Mage but didn't do that so if harambe gonna apear as elim then Mage probably too. About Alv I'm not sure but his vote on first turn for me looked like he wanted to get extra action what can say that he is can be Autonomy, Survival, Odium. Right now I'm not sure on whom I should place my vote Len or Lopen, both of them looks suspicious for me not for some reasons let's say it's just bad feeling.

Also we have many inactive players and lurkers(Aonar) so I'm not sure in solidness of my judgments.

[Kasimir]

37 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Okay, let me elaborate on my kill pattern suspicions.

Mage, you note that the kills are not following standard protocol. I agree. Most recent kill patterns have been targeting the most active players. This new kill pattern appears to be either random (my hypothesis) or due to contacts. The problem I have with the contacts strategy is that Hoid and Auto can't convert Odium.

Kas, you bring in a few more names to add to my suspect list. Alv I will agree on; he's now in the same bracket as you. I had forgotten about his tactics in LG24. I don't think Araris has even been active enough to keep a Shard, so he's out. I've played a few games with Aonar and Sart, but neither of them stood out as the kind of player who would sacrifice kill efficiency for subterfuge, although as I said I may be wrong about one or both of them. All things considered, I don't find either of them nearly as suspicious as <Lopen, Kas, Alv>, any of whom I wouldn't put an RNG kill past.

My final verdict is this: I would be willing to bet that between Lopen, Kas, and Alv, one is Odium. Lopen is my prime suspect in both gut read and logic, and I am willing to commit myself to that lynch no matter how unpopular. We need decisiveness to catch Odium, and I'm going to try to supply it.

You're still making the exact same assumption I already called out in the thread. Araris doesn't need to post. He doesn't need to say anything in world PMs. The only  thing he needs to do is to be able to send in orders. As long as you send in an order once every two Cycles, you keep your Shard. That doesn't require an insane amount of activity, and that makes lurking a viable strategy for a Shard. We in the thread will not be able to tell a difference between an inactive and a lurker.

It's obvious you're looking for an excuse to lynch people. I've replied by pointing out old players existed in a time where the meta was to lynch the most threatening players, including active ones and ones with insane reputations. Not by RNG. RNG kills are suboptimal. You have chosen to ignore this and simply repeat your claim that only older players would use the RNG. (Hell, that's such a generalisation it's pointless.) Well, so be it. I'm not going to bother to remove my vote from a player who can't be bothered to A. engage with dissenting opinions, B. actually attempt to make sense of the evidence rather than just being lynch-happy. If you're not 17S or Odium, you're not going to be helpful anyway. So be it.

[Araris Valerian]

Sorry guys, I've been somewhat sick the last several days, and using up what remaining energy I had to spend time with family and friends.

That being said, that is no excuse for the amount of inactivity I have had. I'll say right now that I actually have a small reason to trust Dalinar over other players, at least for now, but I can't really give details on that. He is probably the only player I wouldn't help lynch right now. Aside from that, I'll put my vote where it was last cycle, on Magestar. The reasoning is pretty much the same, and I'll try and be back on once or twice to consider switching to a better target. I kind of agree with Kasimir about Elenion, so he is probably where I would switch votes to if I did right now.

Also, just to note, I have been active enough to hold onto a shard. I have to keep up with the other LG as well, so I've been getting in my orders or the lack thereof for both games, despite appearances of activity.

[Alvron]

2 hours ago, Arinian said:

About Alv I'm not sure but his vote on first turn for me looked like he wanted to get extra action what can say that he is can be Autonomy, Survival, Odium.

Actually my first vote was a reminder to Mage that I'm coming for Lor's Thumb.

Thanks for the response Dalinar.

I'm going to place another vote on Lopen.  I have reason to believe he is one of three possible roles.  Two of which the village really wants gone.

[Magestar]

Actually, I'm pretty sure I can confirm that Alv isn't Odium, unfortunately.  Like Araris, it might be better if I didn't say why, although if it comes down to him being lynched I'll put my information forward.  Curse you Alv, why can't you just be evil? :P.

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Aside from that, I'll put my vote where it was last cycle, on Magestar.

Can you remind me of the reasoning for this?

I'm going to put my vote on Len.  Depending on how the day goes, I might change my vote, but right now I think a little more pressure should be put on him.  If he ends up being good, well, we can kill Lopen.    @Elenion, would you mind backing up your vote on Lopen a little more?

@Alvron, is there any way you can clarify a bit on what roles you think Lopen might have, and why?

2 hours ago, Arinian said:

Also I want to remind you about harambe and his vote redirect, he could make lynch on Mage but didn't do that so if harambe gonna apear as elim then Mage probably too.

Yeah, I'm going to kick myself for not voting on Harambe that cycle for a while.  That repeated no-lynch was awful.

[Arinian]

3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Yeah, I'm going to kick myself for not voting on Harambe that cycle for a while.  That repeated no-lynch was awful.

Yeah, your late vote on harambe was suspicious too.

 

26 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Actually my first vote was a reminder to Mage that I'm coming for Lor's Thumb.
 

Just throwing some thought to not be absolutely useless.

[Alvron]

7 minutes ago, Magestar said:

@Alvron, is there any way you can clarify a bit on what roles you think Lopen might have, and why?

I would rather wait and hear what Lopen's response is first.

[Elenion]

As pertaining to the old meta, that is exactly why we have such a lurking  and inactivity problem nowadays: by lynching only actives and those with insane reps, you encouraged players to lurk in order to dodge the lynch. You also disregard that the only reason I knew that RNG is a strategy is because Joe, who I believe is one of the most experienced players still in the game, proposed it in the last QF. That is directly contrary to your claim that an older player would not use such an inefficient system.  If memory serves I also heard of using an RNG in LG24 from Alv, STINK, or Lopen, but I cannot check because I deleted the Derethi PM about a month or two ago for inbox organization. Contrasting with that, I have never heard a new player propose such a kill system.

I will give you that point on Araris.

You also assert that I am just looking for excuses to lynch people. That is not accurate. I am looking for evidence, and once I weigh that evidence then I am going to put my vote where my mouth is. Doesn't everyone? Right now I have found what I believe to be sound evidence against Lopen, so I have voted in that light. If you can provide me with sound evidence that makes me believe Lopen is innocent, I will rescind my vote.

Your last 2 sentences also strike me as off.  So you're saying that because I'm not evil, I'm not helpful? That's not what I'd expect to hear from a villager's mouth.

Mage, my vote on Lopen is based primarily on the kill patterns so far. In my first paragraph I validate my earlier claim that a player like Lopen, Kas, or Alv is most likely to be Odium. Kas, as he has emphatically stated, does not agree with me. I also have a very bad gut read on Lopen, although that of course does not lend itself to justification very well.

[TheMightyLopen]

4 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I would rather wait and hear what Lopen's response is first.

Response to what exactly? Mage, I gave a hint to what my role is in the Sel World PM. Though I'm pretty certain Alv thinks I'm lying.

[Dustbringer12]

@TheMightyLopen, for the record, I don't think you're lying.

[Dustbringer12]

Vote count:

Magestar (2) : theYoungBard, Araris Valerian

Lopen (3) : Elenion, arinian, alvron

Elenion (3) : lopen, kasmir, magestar

 

[Araris Valerian]

If the votes haven't changed by the next 10 or so hours, I will probably switch onto Elenion to ensure a lynch, since I agree with some of what has been said against him.

[Kasimir]

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

As pertaining to the old meta, that is exactly why we have such a lurking  and inactivity problem nowadays: by lynching only actives and those with insane reps, you encouraged players to lurk in order to dodge the lynch. You also disregard that the only reason I knew that RNG is a strategy is because Joe, who I believe is one of the most experienced players still in the game, proposed it in the last QF. That is directly contrary to your claim that an older player would not use such an inefficient system.  If memory serves I also heard of using an RNG in LG24 from Alv, STINK, or Lopen, but I cannot check because I deleted the Derethi PM about a month or two ago for inbox organization. Contrasting with that, I have never heard a new player propose such a kill system.

I will give you that point on Araris.

You also assert that I am just looking for excuses to lynch people. That is not accurate. I am looking for evidence, and once I weigh that evidence then I am going to put my vote where my mouth is. Doesn't everyone? Right now I have found what I believe to be sound evidence against Lopen, so I have voted in that light. If you can provide me with sound evidence that makes me believe Lopen is innocent, I will rescind my vote.

Your last 2 sentences also strike me as off.  So you're saying that because I'm not evil, I'm not helpful? That's not what I'd expect to hear from a villager's mouth.

Mage, my vote on Lopen is based primarily on the kill patterns so far. In my first paragraph I validate my earlier claim that a player like Lopen, Kas, or Alv is most likely to be Odium. Kas, as he has emphatically stated, does not agree with me. I also have a very bad gut read on Lopen, although that of course does not lend itself to justification very well.

Wrong. You look for evidence, but people have already informed you why your evidence is either not as strong as you think it is, or simply not evidence at all. It does not confer support onto the propositions you think it does. Now you're trying to pretend I'm claiming you're not helpful if you're evil. Nice work trying to twist people's words. You want me to be blunt? If you're lynch-happy, if you fail to consider countervailing evidence, if you're doing pretty bloody badly at this reasoning business, I'm happy to see you lynched. Not as happy as I would be to see Team Hoid or Odium down, but you know what? If I end up lynching someone who is either evil or doing a horrid job at being a Villager, that's a better trade than lynching an actual, helpful Villager.

If that's the case, then I accept that older players have proposed RNG - Alv, STINK or Lopen, but then you fall prey to my second claim: you are making a sweeping generalisation. I left before RNG became the acceptable meta-strategy - my Eliminator teams have always proposed non-random, threat-kills. So you're essentially saying that despite not having played later games, I must play the exact same way as older players who have been around to adapt to this changing strategy. Huh. This makes so much sense.

[Doc12]

Silence decided he had done too much living up to his name...

=o=o=o=o=o=o=

Well, this game has been hard to keep track of...I apologize for being a lurker. I am not inactive, I have been keeping an eye on what happens in the thread, but with a dead world PM and no other PMs to speak of, it's easy to sit back and watch.  In a large game like this, with so many different variables, I gave up trying to analyze and summarize posts, and it became easier every cycle to stay quiet and harder to break into the discussion. But yes, just confirming that I am not inactive, and watching.

Anyways, I'm hoping to worldhop today, and I'm hoping to worldhop to an active world. If someone could point me at a world where people are talking, that would be very nice.

A thought I had that might be useful. To find Autonomy, look over the last day's thread and see who was in favor of saving Joe. I doubt that Autonomy would actually want their Agent to suicide. I'm not saying that Autonomy is sure to have spoken out in favor, it's just what I'm doing to make notes on players....I really should start making notes on players. 

Okay, onto today's topic. Of the three people up for lynch today, I will say I have absolutely no interaction with any of them, heh. Len is on the same world I am now, but as the PM has been dead since I got there, I haven't learnt anything. So. I might go back and read over their posts from the last few cycles, but from this cycle? I find myself agreeing with Kas about Len's logic being shaky. The use of the 'random kill pattern' might be true, but to direct it at an old player at random seems strange. Your later post after Kas corrected you about older players sounds like justification thought up to cover the fact that you actually wanted to target Lopen. 

Elenion. Sound evidence is hard to come by. I have no idea what Lopen is, and I have no evidence to offer you. For all we know he might be, as Alv said, someone the village needs gone. That's okay, if that's true, we might be able to find out more tonight. Right now, what evidence I have is watching you accuse another player with evidence that doesn't really hold up. I am not questioning the validity of your gut reads, I know everyone has them. The one thing that makes me hold on to my vote on you is the fact that, as stated above, you seem to be trying to validate this read with a generalization and not really considering other avenues. 

I do still have some reservations, I am not fully sure on this action. I am not likely to change my vote, however, unless there's some discussion that sways me. I respect you for trying to start up discussion again. I hope I'm making the right choice. 

[TheMightyLopen]

On 12/31/2016 at 4:23 AM, Arinian said:

Better you not wrote it. Now I'm suspicious of you. But anyway I gonna vote for Lopen.

Just acknowledging I've seen this mostly. >> I understand that later you explain your reasoning is just that you have a "bad feeling" about me, but that's still extremely difficult to respond to.

22 hours ago, Magestar said:

 

I'll not say I'm not feeling the Lopen/Len lynches, because I think they make sense, but I feel pretty equal about both players.  It's equally bad, but it's still equal.  

What exactly makes you suspicious of me? I honestly haven't seen a valid argument for why I'm suspicious(I mean, I'm totally biased so most arguments aren't going to seem valid to me, but this lynch really seems weak to me).

12 hours ago, Magestar said:

Actually, I'm pretty sure I can confirm that Alv isn't Odium, unfortunately.  Like Araris, it might be better if I didn't say why, although if it comes down to him being lynched I'll put my information forward.  Curse you Alv, why can't you just be evil? :P.

Can you remind me of the reasoning for this?

I'm going to put my vote on Len.  Depending on how the day goes, I might change my vote, but right now I think a little more pressure should be put on him.  If he ends up being good, well, we can kill Lopen.    @Elenion, would you mind backing up your vote on Lopen a little more?

@Alvron, is there any way you can clarify a bit on what roles you think Lopen might have, and why?

Yeah, I'm going to kick myself for not voting on Harambe that cycle for a while.  That repeated no-lynch was awful.

This is the second time you've said this exact thing. "If this person is good, we can kill the players who lynched them." You said that about me(a villager, but, no proof sadly) and Sheep(definitely a villager when he did that) when we lynched Joe(villager when that happened) and now you're saying it again. It's like, you're helping the lynch by letting it happen(or even voting on the player this time) and then saying that their death condemns others but not you. It makes me suspect you're trying to get a chain of villagers lynched.

7 hours ago, RubiksCube said:

@TheMightyLopen, for the record, I don't think you're lying.

Thanks. I'd be perfectly happy getting scanned to put any doubts to rest though.

Now, I'm moving my vote to Magestar. I'm still confused/suspicious about Elenion's reasoning for suspecting me/Kas/Alv, and don't agree with it at all, but I think I kinda took it a little too personally. I've been suspicious of Elenion for his aggressive behavior in a bunch of other games, and he's turned out to be village most of those times. So, while I wouldn't really be against lynching him, I can't say I really believe he's a 17th Sharder because of all this. I'm more confused than anything(and a little upset I'll admit), because I just don't understand why he's insistent on lynching me. Anyways, if I have to, I'll switch my vote back, but I feel like Mage is a more likely candidate for a 17th Sharder at this point(and if he is, I think it's highly unlikely Elenion is one as well).

Aaand ninja'd. Well that kind of makes the votes weird. Bleeeeh, I need sleep. I'm gonna sleep on it and see what the votes look like when I wake up.

[Magestar]

11 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

What exactly makes you suspicious of me? I honestly haven't seen a valid argument for why I'm suspicious

It's mostly a gut read, from how you've been acting and responding to posts.  I know you've been sick/away, so my read on you is mostly from how you responded to things in the first few cycles, and how I've been reading you're posts.  I do think that a Lopen lynch is pretty weak, so I'm voting for Len.  If he ends up being good, we should probably take a closer look at you.

15 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

This is the second time you've said this exact thing. "If this person is good, we can kill the players who lynched them." You said that about me(a villager, but, no proof sadly) and Sheep(definitely a villager when he did that) when we lynched Joe(villager when that happened) and now you're saying it again. It's like, you're helping the lynch by letting it happen(or even voting on the player this time) and then saying that their death condemns others but not you. It makes me suspect you're trying to get a chain of villagers lynched.

Wait, when did I say that about Sheep?  I've trusted Sheep for most of the game. (Regardless of the Fact that he kept voting for me. )  I don't like being implicated for lynching people, I'll give you that one.   This becomes a problem when people who are lynched actually end up being bad.  In this scenario, I have felt that almost all of the lynches have been on pretty weak evidence, and that when two people are up for lynch, then the one who doesn't die should be looked at later, especially if the other lynchee ends up being good.

Also, I'm pretty sure the three votes on me are for A; Not mentioning a PM (Or possibly having known Sheeps role. (I didn't)), B; The same thing as before. (What was that again?  @Araris Valerian, you still haven't reminded me why you have your vote on me, and I'm fairly certain the reason you had last cycle no longer applies.), and C; Because I don't like being responsible for lynching villagers.

Does that sound right?  

Also, Lopen, I'm curious to know how you know that Joe was a villager when we lynched him.  As far as I know, the only people with that sort of information would be the 17th Shard, or Autonomy, I think.

Scanners, you need to be more active, btw.  There's a reason for having scanners in this game, and right now, we're lynching just on analysis, which I don't like.

[Assassin in Burgundy]

I'm going to vote for Elenion, simply because I don't have anything against Mage or Lopen's and we can't afford another missed lunch. 

[Magestar]

10 minutes ago, Assassin in Burgundy said:

And we can't afford another missed lunch. 

You guys keep saying that.  What is it you have against lunch?