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Okay, first things first is to reconcile who did what. Unless I'm mistaken, Sheep had Devotion, and Odium killed him. Harambe was killed by a vigilante Voidbringer. Conq was not returned, and Joe committed suicide.

Does anyone know what action Joe took to kill himself? And what has Ruin been doing this whole time?

Another thing that jumps out to me is why Autonomy converted Joe and not Odium. I think Autonomy may be going after Cultivation, and just converted Joe before Odium could. Per the rules Agents of Autonomy can't be invested in, and Odium's conversion is an invest action, so Autonomy converting Joe would have denied Odium the opportunity.

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35 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Does anyone know what action Joe took to kill himself? And what has Ruin been doing this whole time?

Yes...  He protected Harambe. :P At least, that's what he told the PM he was doing.

My guess would be that Ruin is being passed constantly from inactive players.  There are a rather large number of them, which is really unfortunate.

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27 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Yes...  He protected Harambe. :P At least, that's what he told the PM he was doing.

My guess would be that Ruin is being passed constantly from inactive players.  There are a rather large number of them, which is really unfortunate.

So did someone RB Joe?  Does this mean that Harambe was also working for Autonomy?

I think there are only two Inactives.  Kyne and Zephrer.  Or at least neither of those two have posted since D1.

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Just now, Alvron said:

So did someone RB Joe?  Does this mean that Harambe was also working for Autonomy?

Not sure about the second one, however, it's possible he just ended up not doing it.  It really wouldn't have been helpful.

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

I think there are only two Inactives.  Kyne and Zephrer.  Or at least neither of those two have posted since D1.

Huh.  It feels like there are more.

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1 minute ago, Magestar said:

Not sure about the second one, however, it's possible he just ended up not doing it.  It really wouldn't have been helpful.

Huh.  It feels like there are more.

Did someone ask Joe to save Harambe or was it his idea?

There most likely is more.  I only checked for those that either haven't posted or only posted on D1.

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Just now, Alvron said:

Did someone ask Joe to save Harambe or was it his idea?

There most likely is more.  I only checked for those that either haven't posted or only posted on D1.

I asked Joe to do it, so he could troll everyone with his death. :P It wasn't a serious suggestion, obviously. (Although it would've been hilarious if he'd done it. :P)

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I'd agree with the theory that Sheep held Devotion. Unfortunately, that makes last night more confusing, not less.

Last night, a PM opened, and then was instantly closed, between just Mage and I. Mage, Sheep I were in the very first Devotion PM that was mentioned last cycle (along with Lopen and a couple others - they can confirm), and haven't had any particular contact since. I think it's likely that Mage and Sheep formed a trust group together, as I don't know why else Sheep would set up a PM between us, unless Mage was acting as an intermediary. As such, Mage is the one person who I'm relatively certain Sheep claimed to. And now Sheep has been killed by Odium.

And now Mage has just responded - twice - without even mentioning the PM. So I'm voting for Magestar. I know people have said we can work with Odium, but Odium has killed randomly so far, so I don't think we can take that approach. Yes, they killed Jon, but so far as I can tell, that seems to have been purely accidental.

@Magestar, care to respond?

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There are a lot more: Assassin, DA, Doc, Kyne, Zeph, Conq... none of them have posted recently, to my memory. There may be more.

But that aside, I've been seeing more and more things that make me again suspicious of Lopen.

The first is that he's apparently active enough to keep up with the game, but he seldom posts. That's not like him, or at least what I've seen of him.

Second is that he seemed evasive about the content of his PMs. At the time I thought that was just him being wise about who had what info, but now I'm not so sure, due to #3.

Third is the kill distribution thus far. Most elims have a habit of killing active players, but that hasn't happened. Instead it almost seems like Odium is killing randomly, which is a tactic that has come up multiple times when I've been in elim docs, most recently in Summitmist Manor by Joe. Every time I've heard that proposed, though, it has been by an older player, leading me to suspect that Odium this game is someone like Lopen or Kas.

 

Ninja'd!

Bard, if it's relevant, I got an instantly-closed PM between only Lopen and I. I just assumed it was Sheep taking my advice.

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5 minutes ago, The Young Bard said:

And now Mage has just responded - twice - without even mentioning the PM. So I'm voting for Magestar. I know people have said we can work with Odium, but Odium has killed randomly so far, so I don't think we can take that approach. Yes, they killed Jon, but so far as I can tell, that seems to have been purely accidental.

Well, first of all, I was role blocked the night before last, and Odium killed.  So I can't be Odium.  There's no evidence for this unless whoever role blocked me steps up, however, so I'm not going to stand on that one.

As far as the PM goes, I basically ignored it because it's not useful for anything.  Sheep didn't claim to me, although he might have guessed something about my role and yours, and decided we should talk?  Not sure why.  After Len saying he also got a two person PM, I'm unsure as to whether there's a really important reason for them, or if Sheep just paired people he trusted.

Would you mind telling me what Planet you're on?  If Sheep thought we should talk, it might be a good idea.  Plus, I plan on leaving my planet today anyway.

I have people coming over, so I don't know if I'll be able to post again until tomorrow morning.  So I might not respond to responses to this response immediately. :P 

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3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Well, first of all, I was role blocked the night before last, and Odium killed.  So I can't be Odium.  There's no evidence for this unless whoever role blocked me steps up, however, so I'm not going to stand on that one.

As far as the PM goes, I basically ignored it because it's not useful for anything.  Sheep didn't claim to me, although he might have guessed something about my role and yours, and decided we should talk?  Not sure why.  After Len saying he also got a two person PM, I'm unsure as to whether there's a really important reason for them, or if Sheep just paired people he trusted.

Would you mind telling me what Planet you're on?  If Sheep thought we should talk, it might be a good idea.  Plus, I plan on leaving my planet today anyway.

I have people coming over, so I don't know if I'll be able to post again until tomorrow morning.  So I might not respond to responses to this response immediately. :P 

Hmmm... I had forgotten about you being roleblocked. You did mention that before now, which makes me more likely to trust you... And Len's claim ruins that train of thought that you were an intermediary for Sheep... I'll keep my vote on you for now, but I'm a lot less confident than I was a moment ago - I'll switch it when I feel I have a better target (and before you ask, Len, no, I'm not especially suspicious of Lopen :P)

And if you want to discuss something, I'm still on Nalthis. It will be good to have an active PM... Though there are a few other people besides me on Nalthis at the moment.

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Well, I looked over everyone's online times and it appears that every player was online at some point during the Night Turn(though Zephrer was last online only about an hour or 2 into the Night). So I'm not sure what's up with Ruin. But at least Harambe was finally killed. >.>

Also, so rude Odium. Devotion had just set up a PM with me in it, then you went and Shattered him. :(

Len, gimme a break man. I was gone for a week and I've been sick for over 2 weeks(not sure if I've mentioned that here though, so whatever). I've been able to keep up, but that's it. I've been back from my trip for what, 2 days? Most of that time I've been in bed.

Evasive about the content of my PM's? What? How have I been evasive? There's literally been nothing to speak of. You know what? I'll give you a detailed over view of what happened in the PM made by Devotion. It had me, Sheep, Magestar, Kasimir, Bard, and Jondesu(though he'd just been killed). First reply was by Magestar asking why Devotion made the PM with so many players. Then Sheep replied saying he wasn't sure if anyone besides Bard had asked for a PM. Next was me, saying I wanted a PM after I was back from my trip. Then Kas with a little blurb. Then Mage with a blurb. Then Kas with a suggestion that Devotion made the PM based off of active players or something. Then Mage with another blurb. Then Kas talking about Endowment. After that, Kas and Mage just discussed some small things that aren't really that relevant/could be sensitive information that I don't think I should say.

Your suspicion of me based on the kill distribution just feels contrived. Odium has no reason to kill active players. He's supposed to kill Shards. So I'm not sure why it's such a surprise he's not been killing active players each Cycle. What we need to figure out is how he figured out that Sheep and Conquestor were Shards(I think it's a bit of a stretch to call it a coincidence that he's gotten 2 Shards in a row). I feel like you're just making up reasons to suspect me. And since I don't really have any good suspects right now, Elenion.

Edited by TheMightyLopen
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I've got a moment, so I'm going to post some thoughts.

1 hour ago, The Young Bard said:

And if you want to discuss something, I'm still on Nalthis. It will be good to have an active PM... Though there are a few other people besides me on Nalthis at the moment.

Cool.  Scadrial's PM just died anyway, so I'm moving, and Nalthis sounds as good as anywhere else.

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Evasive about the content of my PM's? What? How have I been evasive? There's literally been nothing to speak of. You know what? I'll give you a detailed over view of what happened in the PM made by Devotion. It had me, Sheep, Magestar, Kasimir, Bard, and Jondesu(though he'd just been killed). First reply was by Magestar asking why Devotion made the PM with so many players. Then Sheep replied saying he wasn't sure if anyone besides Bard had asked for a PM. Next was me, saying I wanted a PM after I was back from my trip. Then Kas with a little blurb. Then Mage with a blurb. Then Kas with a suggestion that Devotion made the PM based off of active players or something. Then Mage with another blurb. Then Kas talking about Endowment. After that, Kas and Mage just discussed some small things that aren't really that relevant/could be sensitive information that I don't think I should say.

I can confirm this is accurate.  Except my 'Blurbs' were actually succinct, well thought out, discussion inspiring, logical tidbits.  Not Blurbs.   :P

1 hour ago, The Young Bard said:

Hmmm... I had forgotten about you being roleblocked. You did mention that before now, which makes me more likely to trust you... And Len's claim ruins that train of thought that you were an intermediary for Sheep... I'll keep my vote on you for now, but I'm a lot less confident than I was a moment ago - I'll switch it when I feel I have a better target (and before you ask, Len, no, I'm not especially suspicious of Lopen :P)

I can respect that.  Right now, I'm thinking about joining Lopen in voting on Len, however, if I recall, he just started being able to be active recently?  So he might just being normal Aggressive Len.  So I'm going to wait on that for a moment.  I'm not suspicious of Kas at all.  I think I'm going to look over the thread again.  -sigh-

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44 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Is there seriously no one else who thinks that Lopen is even slightly suspicious?

I'm getting some bad vibes from Lopen.  He hasn't been as active as I thought he would be even with being sick.  In the Sel world PM I get the feeling that he's holding something back.  

Straw is still my top suspect though.  Even that however is mostly a gut vote.

I would really like to hear from Dalinar Kholin though.  Dalinar, you've been online, what do you think of what's been happening?

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2 hours ago, Alvron said:

I'm getting some bad vibes from Lopen.  He hasn't been as active as I thought he would be even with being sick.  In the Sel world PM I get the feeling that he's holding something back.  

Straw is still my top suspect though.  Even that however is mostly a gut vote.

I would really like to hear from Dalinar Kholin though.  Dalinar, you've been online, what do you think of what's been happening?

Thank's for the poke vote.

Okay, well, two shards are down, and Odium's going at a consistent rate. How has he managed to get two shards out of three, plus a member of the 17th shard? Either he's a darned good player, really lucky, or he's got an information support network (I agree with Lopen on that matter), (ie. has been converted by the 17th shard. Also, can Odium be converted by Autonomy?). That's some sorta scary thoughts. 

So that's sorta my first thought, how to take care of Odium. Not having shards hurts the village. Having people dead generally hurts the village. Inter-village conflict hurts the village. A 17th shard Odium REALLY hurts the village. Either way, he needs to be taken care of one way or another. This is where I get fuzzy on the rules, if we kill him does it just pass on to another player? Do we have a way we can put Odium out of action? Obviously we can't shatter him... Am I missing something here?

A thought, so one shard can redirect actions right? So if we found out who Odium is, that shard could stay secret and redirect Odium's kills to targets of our choice, effectively neutralizing him. He wouldn't want to give the shard to someone else b/c he would lose the win con, thus making it pointless, meanwhile, he would only really want to if he was seventeenth shard, confirming him as evil. Does that logic check out at all?

Second. @Araris Valerian where have you been at? 

Third, we need to utilize our tools more effectively. Where's Honor? Cultivation? Ruin struck for he first time finally... If they are using actions they're just not having impacts, while Odium and 17th shard can hide in anonymity. Additionally, does anyone have an idea how the convert mechanic for the 17th shard works? (I'm not sure if there are precedents I might be missing from previous games. About how many convert abilities will they probably have? Do we think they'll use them early or wait until late game for more info?) 

Fourth, the lynch. Well, we have to lynch someone, as sad as that reality may be. We need information, but I'm afraid I've got nothing special at all to add. Sheep was one of the few who I was strongly confident was good and he's gone. I'll wait and watch for now on who to vote on. I'm just too uncertain.

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Still on First of the Sun, with Assassin :P World of Death is dead.

6 hours ago, Elenion said:

Hmmm . . . my other suspect at this point is Kas. I won't switch my vote yet, but the kill pattern does seem like something he would do. Kas, what's your opinion on who Odium most likely is?

I'll be frank and say I have no bloody idea. Dude, this community has changed so storming much since I left and come back, what with people having fights about playstyle and the absolutely absurd level of inactivity compared to where it was in my time (*shakes cane*) :P Interesting that you don't class Alv or Sart (he started in LG4!) or Aonar or Araris as older players. Do you not think they've been around as well, Elenion? Or were you just looking for easy targets?

Not really sure what to say about the claim the Odium kill pattern fits the playstyle of an older player since I can't really be bothered to look up all the most recent games to see how they've been killing. (And I'll be frank: back when I was playing, respect kills were a thing. You'd expect people with heavy-hitter reps to drop dead first, so this is an extremely different meta I don't know nuts about.) Not to mention that the most recent games show Eliminator behaviour and I think it's kind of ridiculous to assume the same pattern applies to Odium behaviour since they're different win conditions. The most I can say is that I already repeatedly expressed confusion over the Jondesu kill and conquestor. At least to me, they would not have been intuitive targets - my first attempt would be to guess who Joe trusted (this might have been why Odium hit Jondesu) and failing that, to hit Elodin on the off-chance Joe hadn't passed the Shard on separately. conquestor would not have been an intuitive choice at all, and I'd be hopping worlds to gather more information since every cycle I fail to Shatter a Shard is a wasted one. (Inb4 people now complain I'm strategising for Odium... :P ) [I believe Stick would fit that part of the profile, at least.]

Good to know that we can at least clear Magestar of being Odium, assuming he was truthful about being roleblocked :P

I was the receipient of a closed Devotion PM as well - between Sheep and myself. Not sure what this says, but I thought I'd just add to the info circulating around.

@Dalinar Kholin, the rules explicitly state that 17th Shard cannot convert Odium, Autonomy, or Survival (or, I suppose, the Agent of Autonomy - but this is an inference.) Autonomy cannot convert other Shards or Hoid. If we kill Odium, the Shard passes - but not the win condition. This is also stated in the rules. Same goes for Autonomy and Survival. This means that technically, Autonomy and Survival are all right with passing their Shards if they can see a way to fulfil their win con by doing so. Odium is less likely to, since their Shardic ability is required to fulfil their win con.

Cultivation, you may need to pass your Shard to someone you trust soon. If Joe was an Agent of Autonomy, he has likely already leaked your identity to Autonomy. Autonomy can't convert you, but this may just mean that Autonomy is happy to get you Shattered or lynched, since their win con is to have all living players converted.

Also, before I forget: #sticksoutforharambe :P

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2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I was the receipient of a closed Devotion PM as well - between Sheep and myself. Not sure what this says, but I thought I'd just add to the info circulating around.

Better you not wrote it. Now I'm suspicious of you. But anyway I gonna vote for Lopen.

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55 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Better you not wrote it. Now I'm suspicious of you. But anyway I gonna vote for Lopen.

Very logical, especially since Devotion doesn't need to be in any of the PMs and I literally got the Devotion PM after the rollover - and it was auto-shut since Devotion was shattered. Interesting.

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