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Just now, Jondesu said:

Except we have no basis for suspicion usually first cycle, and an insanely high chance of lynching someone potentially useful (since those roles should currently far outnumber the 17th Shard members). Discussion is key, but a lynch is not, and is dangerous in this type of game. 

And that is always the case in every game and it never outstrips the fact that a day one lynch is incredibly useful.

And then, consider this.  If the lynch doesn't go through, what do we discuss on Day 2?  We can garner no information from the lynch since none has occurred.  We don't know who supported the lynching of a villager, we don't know who opposed the lynching of an eliminator, we don't know who worked together to get the wrong person lynched or who tried to stop the lynch from occurring when it was an eliminator.  That is all incredibly useful information and all information that is vital for continuing our investigations into the eliminators.

Consider something else.  How does the lynch not going through hurt the village? We don't get the aforementioned information, we don't get the chance of hitting an eliminator.  How does the lynch not going through hurt the elims?  It doesn't.  Preventing a lynch, day one at least, is better for the eliminators than it is for the village.  Why would that be a good thing.

Consider a third thing.  The debate about whether to lynch day one has been done over and over and over again.  It has already wasted over 12 hours of this game.  That's what the eliminators gained from bringing up this debate (which Joe did).  They wasted 12 hours of our discussion which has been dedicated to this matter.  The thing about the debate is that every time the conclusion has been that a first day lynch is good because no matter how many eliminators there are, not doing it always benefits the eliminators more than the village.  See LG22, LG12 and probably many more games on the forum.

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21 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

@Seonid Shade isn't mentioned in Endownment's invested ability. Can Endowment make shades? Or is everyone on Threnody automatically a shade? Can you just explain a bit more?

Oops - missed this one! Sorry! Endowment cannot make Shades - if Endowment invests in a player on Threnody, nothing happens. As for how someone becomes a Shade, or if they start out as a Shade: PAFO!

EDIT: Apparently, I didn't miss this one. I'll leave this here as a monument to GM forgetfulness.

Edited by Seonid
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See, @AliasSheep, I disagree strongly about the usefulness of that information. Yes, in the minute chance that we happen to lynch an eliminator, knowing who didn't vote for them is mildly useful. However, knowing who voted for a villager doesn't tell us Jack Squat, and we have a far greater likelihood of losing someone helpful in this game than usual, even though you're trying to claim it's just like any other game in that regard. I think it will be incredibly risky and foolish to do a D1 lynch in this game, and there are enough actions that we should have useful information and discussion for D2 without a D1 lynch.

Edit: @Seonid, I don't see it in the rules, what is the result of a tied lynch in this game?

Edited by Jondesu
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12 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Well, I would say that I'd be fine with not having a lynch this Turn, since, as you say, there's probably not many eliminators(possibly only Hoid, but if there's any more than just him, I'd guess 1 or maybe 2), but something caught my attention that could warrant a lynch I think(and if I'm right then there's not just Hoid).

When Joe posted his initial list of where everyone was, he switched Elodin and Conquestor(putting Elodin on Threnody and Conq as "Unknown"), which you can see by his edit and my post directly after the list. Anyways, earlier, Conq had posted in the thread that only him and Sart were on Threnody. That was all that was known when Joe posted his list. Then, just a little while after Joe posted his list, Sart comes on and says that Elodin actually is on Threnody. So, the point I'm trying to make here is that I think it's possible Joe made a slip and put Elodin on Threnody in his list at first because he already knew he was there. And the only way he could know he was there was if he was a 17th Sharder and one of his teammates was on Threnody and told him who was there. Either that, or Joe just coincidentally switched Conquestor for someone who was also on the same planet. But that seems like a pretty big coincidence to me, so I'll be voting on Joe. Stick.

Lopen for things I will detail below.

6 hours ago, The Young Bard said:

I might join in on a lynch of Joe later, because I do have a bit of a suspicious trust read on him, but I'm not willing to make that call on Day 1 - I'd rather lynch an inactive (who hasn't provided an excuse, that is.) I don't know how many of those there are, but Assassin in Burgundy is first on the list that hasn't posted, nor have they posted an excuse that I saw, so I'm voting for them.

By the way, I'm not sure I agree with all of your instructions, Joe. I'd like to respond post by post, but I think you're pushing for action and inaction on certain roles in the wrong places. Honour - I think you should select a Champion soon, for one thing. You don't necessarily have to claim to them yet, but you should collaborate with them at the very least. What else was there... Joe - you do realise the village needs to kill Odium, his Champ, Autonomy, and his converts in order to win as well, right? Also, Preservation can't self invest anymore :P Seonid changed that after what happened last time... I'm still skeptical of the Ruin blowing up Threnody plan, because I don't think it serves a purpose, particularly since your main argument to blow up a planet is dependent on the Shard taking Ruin at some point in the future, which is far from certain, and the village is shooting itself in the foot in the meantime. Mistborns and Voidbringers should probably wait to kill, seeing as they only have two charges and they'll have more accurate reads later. Also, a lot of your advice (e.g. Forgers, Feruchemists) is tailored towards PM stuff, which... doesn't work when you only have the World PM's or Devotions whims.

Honestly, I thought we'd probably have similar views on how to play roles, but after that, I'm suddenly not so sure. I'll probably have to get my own guide up now... (Probably this Night Cycle or the next Day Cycle - I won't have time before the end of Day 1.) :P

Both the bold things are completely wrong. Preservation can self invest, preservation cannot target himself with his own shardic ability. We do not need to kill Odium, his champion, Autonomy, his champion, or his converts.

4 hours ago, AliasSheep said:

Putting my vote back on Joe again.  Your argument for us not having a lynch doesn't really make a lot of sense.  Sure, there could be very few people on the 17th Shard, but we don't know that.  And, regardless of how many there are, they still get a convert next cycle whether we lynch or not.  Which means we need to do a lynch so we don't get behind the curve.  And putting the 17th Shard aside, we still need to find and get rid of maybe Odium if not Autonomy as well.  That's like 3 or 4 "eliminators", which means the lynch is totally worth it.  And then you also have the fact that the lynch will help us evaluate our information, which it always does. 

Second, something several people in LG22 brought up when @Sart tried to start discussion about whether or not we should have a lynch - that discussion has been done a thousand times and it's generally accepted that it's a good idea to have a day 1 lynch; in fact, it's like, statistically proven to be better (give me a bit for me to find the actual citation for this - if I don't find it, you can discard this specific point, but my others still stand).  In addition, it was mentioned that bringing up this specific discussion is a great way off putting off actual discussion about who we should lynch, which, as aforeshown, is incredibly important.  As it happens Sart was an eliminator and putting off discussion was exactly what he was doing.  

In fact, this whole discussion in LG22 covers some of my points wonderfully.

In summary, I don't think anything in this game reduces the importance of the day one lynch.  The hypothetical smallness of the 17th Shard team doesn't really change that, in fact, if we do actually manage to lynch an important member of the team, that would be even better for us.

A more interesting and fruitful discussion is what the village should do about Odium and Autonomy.  I actually disagree with myself earlier on about finding and getting rid of Odium - their win condition is definitely more in line with the village's win condition than the Shard's win condition, and if necessary I would be willing to cooperate with them.  I'm not, however, too sure about Autonomy.  Autonomy's win condition would require some tricky timing to get working, unless of course they did something along the lines of tagging everyone but the last member of the 17th Shard, at which point we kill them and both the Village and Autonomy win.  It's definitely possible for all three to win, the question is, is it worth trying?

Your argument is self contradictory, in more ways then you realize. I'm not trying to waste time, i'm trying to buy time will we figure out what to do. You want to get odium working with us? Well great! We need Devotion making PM's and not to be lynching. i'm worried we'll be killing one of the shards with a lynch this early, and since a lynch bypasses their innate extra life, all it nets us is a big woops.

4 hours ago, Magestar said:

It amuses me that this D1 lynch discussion is referring to the one in LG22, which in turn refers to something in... LG12, I think? :P  I personally think a D1 lynch is always good to establish base reads and discussion.  On the same note, I tend to dislike participating in them, so as not to put myself in a position I'll regret later.  I think it might be worthwhile to lynch Joe, just for information, but I have a village gut read on him, despite the things he's done.  Then again, my gut reads keep getting me in trouble, so I'm going to stick to not voting for now.

On this;  It looks like it's physically possible for nearly everyone to win via conversion and some shenanigans.  However, if we did this, I feel we would be pushed into a very controlled scenario, where, although everyone might win, I think it would become very difficult to have fun.  I believe this kind of thing has been discussed before, and while alliances are great, I think any extremely controlled option in order to get everyone to win should be shot down.  

Here's the thing, You will gain nothing from my lynch.

It's not. Hoid cannot win if we go that path, but we would have to convince hoid to not convert anyone. And also that's, as you said, a dumb way to play.

1 hour ago, Jondesu said:

Except we have no basis for suspicion usually first cycle, and an insanely high chance of lynching someone potentially useful (since those roles should currently far outnumber the 17th Shard members). Discussion is key, but a lynch is not, and is dangerous in this type of game. 

^^^^^ This

1 hour ago, AliasSheep said:

And that is always the case in every game and it never outstrips the fact that a day one lynch is incredibly useful.

And then, consider this.  If the lynch doesn't go through, what do we discuss on Day 2?  We can garner no information from the lynch since none has occurred.  We don't know who supported the lynching of a villager, we don't know who opposed the lynching of an eliminator, we don't know who worked together to get the wrong person lynched or who tried to stop the lynch from occurring when it was an eliminator.  That is all incredibly useful information and all information that is vital for continuing our investigations into the eliminators.

Consider something else.  How does the lynch not going through hurt the village? We don't get the aforementioned information, we don't get the chance of hitting an eliminator.  How does the lynch not going through hurt the elims?  It doesn't.  Preventing a lynch, day one at least, is better for the eliminators than it is for the village.  Why would that be a good thing.

Consider a third thing.  The debate about whether to lynch day one has been done over and over and over again.  It has already wasted over 12 hours of this game.  That's what the eliminators gained from bringing up this debate (which Joe did).  They wasted 12 hours of our discussion which has been dedicated to this matter.  The thing about the debate is that every time the conclusion has been that a first day lynch is good because no matter how many eliminators there are, not doing it always benefits the eliminators more than the village.  See LG22, LG12 and probably many more games on the forum.

We do get more information though Sheep. There are scanner roles. There are invest roles. Lots of information, completely unrelated to the lynch, will come to light on Day 2.

37 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Joe, who do you think we should lynch?

No one.

 

Now, responses over. Let's talk.

Earlier, I mentioned that The shards need to be careful with who they pass their shards to, because the hypothetical large 17th shard1 would be cozying up to them to try to get them passed. This is why I am voting for Lopen. I am Cultivation. Lopen knows that i'm a shard, and is pushing for my lynch because of this. All of us know just how easy it is to start a bandwagon on day 1. Plenty of us have done it before as Eliminators.

Here's what I will be doing today. I will be investing in @Master Elodin. I will also be passing my shard to someone i trust. Of course, this is a very flimsy trust because this is day 1 and I haven't had time to get good reads. If I haven't been lynched come Night 1, i would like Master Elodin to confirm that Cultivation invested in him. That should confirm that I'm not lying. Either that or it will show that Master Elodin is a member of the 17th shard.

If I have been lynched Day 1, what information will the village gain? Nothing. Except that they know that I am possible of mixing up Conquestor and Elodin, and that Lopen is willing to lynch people at the drop of a hat. By not lynching me, you gain an equal amount of information, and hang on to  player that is active, village, and willing to discuss things.

If I sound annoyed, it's because I am. The village is lynching the most active player, who is doing his darnedest to inspire as much activity and discussion as he can.

 

1. This was before i considered Hoid starting alone or with 1 flunky. Now i have no guesses as to the size of the shard.

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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14 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

However, knowing who voted for a villager doesn't tell us Jack Squat,

I don't see how that's so.  Over the course of the game we can figure out who's voted for who, the ways in which they've voted, who they've voted with, who they've agreed with, disagreed with, backed, bandwagoned, defended etc and use that to determine whether they're an eliminator or not.  This isn't just about lynching an eliminator now, it's about setting the groundworks for the later turns when we can analyse people better.

14 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

and we have a far greater likelihood of losing someone helpful in this game than usual, even though you're trying to claim it's just like any other game in that regard

There are at least 4 non-villagers, taking the 17th Shard at two members as a minimum.  Which is, what, 1/6 of the players?  Which isn't bad odds, if you ask me.  Plus, taking into account that lynches aren't random.  There is reasoning behind them based upon discussion that occurs in the day.  Successfully making that lynch seems like a decent way of evaluating ones reasoning if you ask me.

10 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Your argument is self contradictory, in more ways then you realize.

Would be great if you could point them out, because you don't in your post.

10 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

We need Devotion making PM's and not to be lynching.

What does this mean, exactly?

10 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

i'm worried we'll be killing one of the shards with a lynch this early

... and then the shard passes to another player, and given that everyone seems so insistent that the 17th Shard is so small as to be incredibly unlikely to hit.

10 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

We do get more information though Sheep. There are scanner roles. There are invest roles. Lots of information, completely unrelated to the lynch, will come to light on Day 2.

And none of the information provideable through roles can supplant the information gained through a lynch.  All the scans are involved in determining role, for example.  None of the roles can give us information about who's working together or how people react under pressure, which is information we need to make successful lynches.

 

What you've mentioned about Lopen is interesting Joe.  I want to hear your responses to what I've said and then I'm seriously considering switching my vote to Lopen.

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22 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Edit: @Seonid, I don't see it in the rules, what is the result of a tied lynch in this game?

A tied lynch will result in no death.

Also - this is not written in the rules, but it should have been:

A player must have 2 or more votes on them in order to be lynched. Players with a single vote on them will not be lynched.

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10 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:
21 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Your argument is self contradictory, in more ways then you realize.

Would be great if you could point them out, because you don't in your post.

First, there's the whole Work with Odium/Don't work with Odium, which you mentioned, then there's the we need to discuss Autonomy and Odium/We need to have a discussion about who to lynch today(But we are lynching someone). Which discussion is more important. Then there's the Fact that you're still wanting to have a day 1 lynch, even though we still need to find our allies.

10 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:
21 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

We need Devotion making PM's and not to be lynching.

What does this mean, exactly?

Exactly what it says on the tin. We need PM's to be made, and we need to not lynch people. We need to get networks in place to figure things out, rather than be lynch happy based on a coincidence. (Also, I am formally retracting my Support for Joe's Ruin plan. It served it's secondary purpose of causing n, but it's primary purpose of stripping Future evil ruin of power is no longer worth the loss of a planet, and probably never was,)

12 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:
24 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

i'm worried we'll be killing one of the shards with a lynch this early

... and then the shard passes to another player, and given that everyone seems so insistent that the 17th Shard is so small as to be incredibly unlikely to hit.

Or it passes to Odium/Survival/Autonomy/Hoid. Right now, they are all in the hands of confirmed villagers. (I could ave sworn there was a role that could guard against 17th shard conversions, but I can't find it now? Is that not a thing?) And I would like to keep them in the hands of confirmed villagers until we've had a bit more time to read people and get a better trust for someone. I literally have in my notes that I trust Master Elodin because of the threnody pun he made. That's the level of trust I have for people on day 1, but I'm passing a shard to someone I trust that much, because I'm being lynched.

20 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:
31 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

We do get more information though Sheep. There are scanner roles. There are invest roles. Lots of information, completely unrelated to the lynch, will come to light on Day 2.

And none of the information provideable through roles can supplant the information gained through a lynch.  All the scans are involved in determining role, for example.  None of the roles can give us information about who's working together or how people react under pressure, which is information we need to make successful lynches.

Do we know of anyone who is working together? On the day 2 lynch, there will be at least three more people whoa have someone to work with (The Agents) Maybe even 4 if Hoid converts early on. Right now the possibility exists that No one is working together to lynch people, because Hoid started with no one. I have not seen a single argument that justifies a day 1 lynch in this specific set of circumstances.

The fact that I'm being lynched based on a coincidence (Technically possibly a slip of the tongue in which i revealed that I somehow already knew Conquestor was on Threnody(I didn't))should be evidence enough that this specific day 1 lynch isn't really based on information. Lopen himself admitted it's tenuous. There's a reason I hadn't voted for anyone once i got a role PM.

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3 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

First, there's the whole Work with Odium/Don't work with Odium, which you mentioned

Of the things you mentioned, this is the only actual contradiction, which I brought up myself.  The point is that if we are lynching, the chance of lynching a villager is not nearly as high as people are making it out to be.

4 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

We need PM's to be made, and we need to not lynch people.

Which isn't mutually exclusive.  Both of those things can occur.

4 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Or it passes to Odium/Survival/Autonomy/Hoid. Right now, they are all in the hands of confirmed villagers. (I could ave sworn there was a role that could guard against 17th shard conversions, but I can't find it now? Is that not a thing?) And I would like to keep them in the hands of confirmed villagers until we've had a bit more time to read people and get a better trust for someone. I literally have in my notes that I trust Master Elodin because of the threnody pun he made. That's the level of trust I have for people on day 1, but I'm passing a shard to someone I trust that much, because I'm being lynched.

Everyone who's mentioned it has encouraged passing shards anyway.  Given how little we know about what's going on right now, I don't see how that's any different to the Shard being passed on for someone who dies.

6 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Right now the possibility exists that No one is working together to lynch people, because Hoid started with no one.

That is incredibly unlikely.  As someone pointed out earlier, Hoid would have started out with at least one or two other members on their team just to avoid the chance of us lynching Hoid by luck turn one and winning the game before it's even started properly.

7 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

this specific day 1 lynch isn't really based on information.

I mean, I'm definitely interested in knowing whether you're an eliminator or not, given my concerns over your comments, which I have expressed already.

Also, about Lopen.  Rereading your last post, I have some concerns:

45 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

This is why I am voting for Lopen. I am Cultivation. Lopen knows that i'm a shard, and is pushing for my lynch because of this. All of us know just how easy it is to start a bandwagon on day 1. Plenty of us have done it before as Eliminators.

This seems.. out of nowhere.  Lopen voted for you as his biggest suspicion because of the reason you provided.  Yet, you take from this that Lopen knows you're a shard?  I don't see how that follows.  If Lopen admits that his reasoning was tenuous, then he's not exactly making the strongest case for that lynch.  He's also made like, one or two posts about it?  All before I put my vote on you.  So his lynch wasn't very strong at the beginning.  And then, a bandwagon?  The two votes on you, Joe, are from me and Lopen, for two entirely different reasons.  How is that a Bandwagon.  And then the claim.  On its own it's not a lot, but this quote just seems like a lot of things that bundle together to push suspicion off you.

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26 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:

I don't see how that's so.  Over the course of the game we can figure out who's voted for who, the ways in which they've voted, who they've voted with, who they've agreed with, disagreed with, backed, bandwagoned, defended etc and use that to determine whether they're an eliminator or not.  This isn't just about lynching an eliminator now, it's about setting the groundworks for the later turns when we can analyse people better.

I'm don't think so. If I was elim in a game with such  small number of initial eliminators  I would have just sat there and did  nothing. Nothing to talk about participation in lynch on first day, it not gonna give any opportunities to elims so I can't see why they gonna try to do something with first day lynch. And also about agreed your argument looks not very solid. If I gonna agree with someone and then occurs that he is elim you instantly gonna claim me elim? It's illogical, why? Cause that's conversion game and If someone that disagreed (or agreed) with elim in early game can be one of them in late game.(And also I don't think that we should forget about possibility that someone just gonna believe in solid points that that person provide).   

(and I know here many mistakes, so if there something that you can't understand just ask me :D)

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I am trying to push suspicion off me, because I don't want to be lynched. But I don't see why Village!Lopen would lynch me over this. It's not suspicious enough to justify killing an active, experienced, discussion causing player.

And while this is not a bandwagon yet, I am very worried it will quickly develop into ine, unless I head it off now, because that's the most common day 1 lynch.

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2 minutes ago, Arinian said:

I'm don't think so. If I was elim in a game with such  small number of initial eliminators  I would have just sat there and did  nothing. Nothing to talk about participation in lynch on first day, it not gonna give any opportunities to elims so I can't see why they gonna try to do something with first day lynch

While this is true, did you see how many votes inactive players were getting?  It would have been very easy to turn any one of those into a lynch.

3 minutes ago, Arinian said:

If I gonna agree with someone and then occurs that he is elim you instantly gonna claim me elim?

Not necessarily, this is about building up information about patterns and whatnot over multiple cycles.

4 minutes ago, Arinian said:

Cause that's conversion game and If someone that disagreed (or agreed) with elim in early game can be one of them in late game.(And also I don't think that we should forget about possibility that someone just gonna believe in solid points that that person provide).   

This is a good point, but I still think that the information is useful so that we can figure out when someone is breaking pattern (which is the main way of figuring out if someone's been converted).  As an example, if a person consistently disagrees with another person and then suddenly one turn starts agreeing with them then we have reason to be suspicious.

5 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I am trying to push suspicion off me, because I don't want to be lynched. But I don't see why Village!Lopen would lynch me over this. It's not suspicious enough to justify killing an active, experienced, discussion causing player.

And while this is not a bandwagon yet, I am very worried it will quickly develop into ine, unless I head it off now, because that's the most common day 1 lynch.

There's like half an hour left of the turn.  That is hardly enough time for a bandwagon to develop.  Given people's reluctance in voting so far, the chance of it turning into a bandwagon is really low.  The bandwagon comment just seems like a cop out.

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Honestly. I don't like first day lynch for one big reason. Because it kills someone and doesn't allows to him play this game. So that also why I don't want to take part in first day lynch, cause then I gonna feel guilty.(Hope if Joe good guy Endowment can resurrect him)

Edited by Arinian
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1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Lopen for things I will detail below.

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

This is why I am voting for Lopen. 

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Lopen knows that i'm a shard, and is pushing for my lynch because of this. All of us know just how easy it is to start a bandwagon on day 1. Plenty of us have done it before as Eliminators.

You voted for Lopen 3 times in one post.  That's indicative of panic.  I'm not sure what to make of you right now, Joe, but I'm not feeling like lynching Lopen.

1 hour ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Here's the thing, You will gain nothing from my lynch.

Except that if you're actually cultivation, then you get proven right and we can lynch Sheep and Lopen soon enough.  Plus, since it's D1, as Arinian said, Endowment could resurrect you.

@Seonid, what happens with a tie vote?

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Just now, Magestar said:

Hmmm.  Does everyone really want to see Joe die?

At this point I'm interested in knowing some explanations behind his posts towards the end.  And of course all the other reasons I have of being suspicious of him.  I don't know about anybody else *shrug*

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1 minute ago, AliasSheep said:

At this point I'm interested in knowing some explanations behind his posts towards the end.  And of course all the other reasons I have of being suspicious of him.  I don't know about anybody else *shrug*

Mmk.  I was considering tying the vote, but I guess I'll just leave it.

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