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1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

In the recesses of the Manor, Kjartan had found and punished the thoroughly evil painting! He drew back his claymore, let out a fierce yell and slashed at it. Soon enough, the evil, evil painting had been cast onto the flooring in tattered shreds. Just to make sure, Kjartan stomped all over them in his leather boots and rapped the fragments with the Toothpick of Stendarr. (Someone had asked him about this once, but as far as Kjartan was concerned, surely the god used a silver-capped toothpick, and it had saved him before from werewolves! When in doubt, bashing a werewolf in the eyes with the Toothpick of Stendarr seemed to work wonders! And then there was Mus's ferocious teeth, gnawing at that evil creature in all sorts of unspeakable places!)

Mus squeaked when the grim, necessary work of vanquishing the painting was done. "I know, Mus," Kjartan said, proudly, feeding the mouse a piece of cheese. "The work of Stendarr is never finished! Soon, we will find more evil rears in this Manor to kick!"
 



Some thoughts about the general format, first:

1. The M'Hael has a sort of 'free hammer' card for the Eliminators, allowing them to put in all their votes at once via the GM. But they can only do so once. The way I see it, it's essentially going to be the tool they use at the end-game, because concerted last minute voting is just going to be super-suspicious, for one, and for another, it's also going to be super-suspicious if they're not putting the votes in themselves but are doing so by Hael. So I'm not sure this is a possibility worth worrying too much about, but maybe I'm overlooking something.

2. I'm not sure it's worth poke-voting anyone who A. has yet to post, and B. has used up their free chance, because barring any special dispensations, if they don't show up, they'll die anyway. That's got to be a lot more scary than having a lone poke-vote on them. Of course, the question is if we know if anyone has any special dispensations - my impression of what the M'Hael said is that Kipper gets an extra free chance, so he still hasn't used up his free chance. Meaning the only person in the 'Ticking Death Clock' territory would be Magestar. Still, best to check: M'Hael, would it be possible to check who currently has dispensation/ a bonus free waiver on their non-posting for this cycle? [Separate from the freebie we already get.]

For now: Arinian. You mentioned that if you were lynched, Odium would have to give up his Shard to you, which is a pretty poetic way of saying you'd hate everyone for doing that. That seems like a pretty strong reaction: care to offer some context to it?

Edited to add: I think the poke-vote does have its uses in terms of forcing people to actually say something substantive instead of presenting substantial RP or a vote as a way of 'gaming' the M'Hael's filter, though. Just that it's worth noting that the inactivity filter might take care of some issues for us.

Yeah you right that exactly what I said. But that was hard day and one more thing(like lynch on first day) was close to make me really angry. And I gonna vote on Stick again. Why you will ask me? I don't know just bad feeling about him (maybe he is doctor :D).

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Hmm, fair enough. Thanks, Arinian.

I'm torn between placing a vote on Stick, or poking Joe. One thought is that it just seems pretty strange to me, to place a second poke-vote on Arinian. It's less about who he is than the fact that at that point in the cycle, there were other inactives: if you're really just about promoting discussion, then why Arinian in particular? Why not anyone else? And why not poke people who showed up but failed to say anything substantive?

And their comment that, "Cycle one lynches always victimise villagers. Which is why it's fun to vote. You can vote on whoever you suspect without rising suspicions on yourself later on when that suspect turns out to be a villager bc 'it was just C1 and no-one had any solid reads'. Well, I suspect that's fun when you're an elim anyway... " rings a little weird to me. If you think Cycle One lynches 'always victimise villagers', then why even bother voting, e.g. for Arinian? Why especially stack a second vote and possibly contribute to lynching a villager (as per your view that Cycle One lynches always target villagers) if you seem to be implying that Cycle One lynches are problematic? It's just a really odd statement that seems more poised than anything to discourage active voting under the suspicion that those must be Eliminators. And while this might be true, active discussion also helps the Village.

As promised, I've also gone back over Lopen's observations, and he's correct: JUQ ostensibly placed a vote on Arinian to "even things out", but really just ended up making Arinian first target for the lynch. This was the state of play as of JUQ's vote:

Doc (1): Arraenae
Arinian (4): Sart, Stick, cloudjumper, JUQ
cloudjumper (2): Doc, Lopen<2>
Joe (1): Oookthelion III
Ookthelion III (3): Elenion, Kasimir<2>, Kynedath<2>
Assassin (1): Nyali
Kynedath (0): Kasimir<1>
Burnt (0): Lopen<1>
Lopen (0): Kynedath<1>

The relevant competing lynch candidates have been bolded for ease of reference. That's certainly fairly odd; at the very least, it certainly seems to indicate that JUQ wasn't terribly bothered about which way the votes were falling. That's fair, given we don't have any power roles to worry about this time around, but even so. I've noted his views on the lynch appear rather passive, but that being said, as previously mentioned, I'm not really fond of considering that to be particularly damning in any way, since Villagers have also been lynched for disapproving of Day One lynches. It would be good if people who played with JUQ can confirm if that tends to be his view, though.

For now, I'll settle for poking Joe, I guess. If I have the time, I'll come back and see what else I can make of this. What's up, A Joe in the Bush? Is A Joe in the Hand better? What is a Joe, even?

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2 hours ago, Arinian said:

Yeah you right that exactly what I said. But that was hard day and one more thing(like lynch on first day) was close to make me really angry. And I gonna vote on Stick again. Why you will ask me? I don't know just bad feeling about him (maybe he is doctor :D).

Her* :P But it's a common mistake, so I'll forgive you :-P

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'm torn between placing a vote on Stick, or poking Joe. One thought is that it just seems pretty strange to me, to place a second poke-vote on Arinian. It's less about who he is than the fact that at that point in the cycle, there were other inactives: if you're really just about promoting discussion, then why Arinian in particular? Why not anyone else? And why not poke people who showed up but failed to say anything substantive?

And their comment that, "Cycle one lynches always victimise villagers. Which is why it's fun to vote. You can vote on whoever you suspect without rising suspicions on yourself later on when that suspect turns out to be a villager bc 'it was just C1 and no-one had any solid reads'. Well, I suspect that's fun when you're an elim anyway... " rings a little weird to me. If you think Cycle One lynches 'always victimise villagers', then why even bother voting, e.g. for Arinian? Why especially stack a second vote and possibly contribute to lynching a villager (as per your view that Cycle One lynches always target villagers) if you seem to be implying that Cycle One lynches are problematic? It's just a really odd statement that seems more poised than anything to discourage active voting under the suspicion that those must be Eliminators. And while this might be true, active discussion also helps the Village.

I meant that Day one lynches usually turn out bad for the villagers but we shouldn't just not vote because of that. It sparks discussion and all that

About that second vote on Arinian, in all honesty, I didn't notice that other vote until after I posted. And...one more thing...I act embarrassingly different when I'm an elim. Players from MR18 might have noticed that :-P

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I don't have time right now for RP or a long post, but I'm going to vote for Arinian. When there's a close vote like there was last night, it makes me suspicious that the person who had the second most votes was an elim and that other elims voted for the lynchee to save them. This, to me, puts a little suspicion on Alvron and Arinian. I know it's not a strong argument, but it's all I've got in my limited SE time.

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48 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Her* :P But it's a common mistake, so I'll forgive you :-P

I meant that Day one lynches usually turn out bad for the villagers but we shouldn't just not vote because of that. It sparks discussion and all that

About that second vote on Arinian, in all honesty, I didn't notice that other vote until after I posted. And...one more thing...I act embarrassingly different when I'm an elim. Players from MR18 might have noticed that :-P

So noted :P

I'm not sure how much I buy that since it reads more as a passive-aggressive way of decrying the lynch, but I'll accept this for now and ask others who've played with you before to comment if this is consistent with your known parameters.

I'd actually like to keep my vote on Joe just because I get worried about him fading into the background, but I guess I should put my money (vote?) where my mouth is and go for JUQ instead. I'd like to hear a bit more about why he thinks there ought to be an Eliminator on the Ecthelion vote - it's not as if we haven't had past games where the Eliminators simply sit by the side and laugh at us, fools all, as we lynch someone they know to be innocent. Why think there is Eliminator involvement in this case?

I'll give you one obvious reason to believe so: if you think Arinian is an Eliminator, and the push on Ecthelion was to keep him safe. Because quite frankly, otherwise, an Eliminator surely has much less suspicion-invoking targets: it's ridiculously easy to just slap a poke vote down and disappear for the rest of the cycle or keep 'poking' people and retracting at the vaguest hint of activity, no matter how constructive. So here's one caveat: perhaps they thought a Cycle One lynch was unlikely. But despite Ecthelion, Straw (at least ambiguously so) and JUQ claiming to be against Cycle One lynches, with cloudjumper as a more sulky "do it just don't lynch me", they were not pushing strongly for a no-lynch result. It doesn't seem obvious the Eliminators would have to work hard to actively force a lynch today: votes were still being thrown. We now know Ecthelion was Village, but then if both Arinian and Ecthelion are Villagers, then it's absolutely pointless for the Eliminators to get involved in the bandwagon since they literally have no reason to favour Arinian's death over Ecthelion's, apart from casting suspicion on Arinian as an Eliminator to be saved.

But even that seems slightly flimsy. Even if you do think Arinian was an Eliminator, it's unclear what pushing for Ecthelion would have done for them. All the votes on Arinian were ostensible 'poke votes', to be retracted the moment Arinian showed up. (And my impression thus far is that it's still the norm that poke votes are lightly placed and easily retracted.) That being said, it's thus not clear he was in any active danger to begin with.

Is that it, then? Do you think Arinian is an Eliminator? (I'll admit, I think I've outlined a plausible line of reasoning, but plausibility does not entail truth. I'd be fine with an Arinian lynch, if only to get some information on how the Eliminator team is playing this, but my current sense is that I don't see a reason for them to have dipped in deep.) And, good night!


More pointing. More tongue-wagging. Kjartan sighed, quietly despairing. Truly, Stendarr sent the greatest trials to the devout. Was it so difficult for the god to simply point his Boot in the direction of evil and demand a proper kicking? Mus, for the moment, had opted for an unhelpful silence, burrowing down into his makeshift nest in Kjartan's pocket.

He longed for the cold forests of Skyrim: the towering pines framing the moon; where there were plenty of nasty stinking dens of bloodsuckers and lycanthropes and smelly necromancers to be punished with Stendarr's Boot! Instead, here he was, twirling the god's toothpick about idly, itching for some action. And his cuirass was starting to chafe. And it seemed they would never stop talking, and he wasn't allowed to kick or smite them, so Mus had said.

He wasn't afraid of the evil-doers coming after him. Bring on the knives and poison! It was what cowardly evil did, when squirming in its dens. And he would soon bring the merciful Boot of Stendarr to their rears! Let them try their pretty handprints when the Boot of Stendarr was stomping on their faces! But there was Mus, and so Kjartan marched over to where the Argonian was sitting by himself in the shadows, playing with his dagger.

"Your name is Stub-Tail, no?"

At least Kjartan paid attention sometimes. It was hard to tell if the lizard-man was acknowledging him, but Kjartan did his best. He pulled Mus out from his nest, with Mus letting out an irate squeak, and plunked the fluffy Voice of Stendarr down before the Argonian. "This is Mus. Also known as the Voice of Stendarr. Mus always guides Kjartan in curbstomps of justice for Stendarr!"

He looked at the Argonian. "Hard to kill Kjartan. I eat iron plates for breakfast in the name of Stendarr! But Kjartan is only so strong, and he must carry all these things, and protect Mus. If I die, will you accept Mus?"

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Kas, could you possibly respond to my edited post? I also, unless there's some direct evidence, don't believe that plausibility is a very strong argument in a game with so many unknowns and should only be really considered in a lynch if it's the only argument or close to it.

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So, what happened in the previous cycle? After a bunch of votes being thrown on everybody, the bandwagons start forming. The two main bandwagons were on Ecth and Arinian, so I'll try to focus on them.

The first to vote on Arinian was Sart, and it seemed like a poke vote.  After that, Len voted on Ecth, also seemingly a poke vote. Stick was the second to throw a poke vote at Arinian. Cloud comes online and votes on Arinian. Cloud claims that they did it to break the tie, and I can confirm that there was a tie at that point. Then Kas decides to go after Ecth for the Five Tenet mention. This was what began ringing alarm bells for me, I guess. After this, Kynedath votes on Ecth for the same reason. 

Ecth: Elenion, Kasimir, Kynedath

Arinian: Sart, Stick, Cloudjumper

At this point Ecth and Arinian are tied. Then JUQ puts Arinian in the lead with his vote. After this, Stick and Sart both withdraw their votes. Alvron enters and throws a vote on Ecth. Nyali votes on Ecth, then withdraws the vote when she realized how illogical the vote was. Ecth votes on Arinian. 

Ecth: Elenion, Kasimir, Kynedath, Alvron

Arinian: Cloudjumper, JUQ, Ecth.

I am not sure what to make of this. The first person to reach three votes was actually Arinian, until Kynedath joined in the vote. After that Arinian was in the lead until Sart and Stick withdrew their votes. I feel that this is strange and warrants watching. Arinian is suspicious. However, I have another suspect currently whom I feel is more suspicious, and will explain below.


Stick - I'm inclined to believe you for now, as I have seen your behaviour in MR18. Know that that's not necessarily a valid excuse though, as you might have learned from that experience. For now, I am inclined to believe you. Still, if you start posting less, I'll zero in on you.

Kynedath - Voted on Lopen. Accused him of trying to shift suspicion. As others have pointed out, this accusation felt kind of forced. I'm inclined to suspect you a little. Later voted on Ecthelion based on the items he had. Wondered why someone would try to save Ecth. Said he changed his vote to Ecth because the vote was more fact-based? Kynedath, the whole thing with the items, which you basically said was your only reason for voting Ecth, is not fact-based. I'd argue your suspicion of Lopen made more sense than your vote on Ecth.

Kasimir - Seems to be generally helpful. Still, you were the one who started the vote on Ecth due to the items he held. Which was illogical of you. Sure, Elenion was the first one to vote for Ecth, but that was a poke vote. Was your vote a gag vote gone wrong? Why, as others have pointed out, did you seem so eager to lynch Ecth?

Arinian - Voted Stick the first day, because why not? And his vote doesn't matter. Has not said much. Was in the lead for the lynch until lots of vote changing happened.

Burnt - Has not said anything other than RP

JUQ - Was in favor of waiting until someone acted suspicious before lynching. A passive position to take. Voted on Arinian.

Alvron - What exactly are you committing? Hopped on the Ecth bandwagon for no explained reason. Voted on STINK  as he believes that the circumstances of Lopen and Ecth's death is similar to MR18. Not the strongest of reasons, I have to say.

Stink - Has not said anything other than RP

Orlok - Dropped a vote on Alvron without reasoning.

Sart - Poke voted Arinian. Poke voted Alvron.

Rae - Voted on Kynedath for his forced-sounding suspicion on Lopen. A suspicion I'm currently inclined to agree with. 

Assassin - Has not posted anything other than RP

Magestar - has not posted last cycle. @Magestar

Elodin - Did not post last cycle. Came in late. Suspects Kas, but does not want anyone to vote based on that as his logic might be faulty. Is just asking JUQ for his thoughts. I feel that this is slightly suspicious, the classic elim tactic of subtly nudging us to feel that someone is suspicious but giving themselves an out just in case. I myself tried that when I was an Eliminator, Wonko did it in MR18... Yeah. I would recommend you take a stance, Elodin, and stick to it.

Nyali - Poke voted Assassin, dropped vote in favor of Ecth, but then dropped the vote when she realized how illogical it was. Currently is voting for Arinian due to the fact that he had the second most votes. Something I'm inclined to agree with.

Cloudjumper - Was not in favor of a day one lynch, seems to want only to survive. Popped up to throw a vote on Arinian. Claimed it was to break a tie later. Was confirmed to be a tie at that point of time.

Joe - Showed up in response to Ecth's poke vote to say that Stick hasn't posted yet. Has not said anything else.

Elenion - Was the first to throw a vote on Ecth. Later maintained his vote due to the item that Ecth had. Illogical. 

Darkness -...I don't have anything to say. 


And so, based on this, I am going to vote Kynedath. Of all the posts that were made last cycle, yours felt the weakest and most forced. Your vote on Lopen was pointed out by Rae and Lopen as being forced, and your vote switch to Ecth on the basis of the Five Tenets felt even more forced, especially as you defended that switch to Rae as something with real and possible evidence, somethign with facts and analysis. There is also the fact that this is a lynch for information. Think about it. If Kynedath turns out to be an Assassin, it is almost certain that Arinian is too, and all those who voted on Ecthelion based on the 'Five Tenet' reason suddenly become all the more suspect, namely Kasimir. It might also throw light on those who shifted the vote to Ecth, such as Sart, Stick and Alvron. 


I'll be out all afternoon tomorrow. I might be able to check in on my phone to change my vote if necessary, but it's not a promise. Good night, all. 

 

Edited by Doc12
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Doc, I find it amusing that you're basically doing the same thing that you're accusing me of being maybe an eliminator for. I don't want to pick a stance and stick with it because I wasn't there on Cycle One and also it's so early into the game I don't want to commit myself to one stance yet. However, I will offer a variety of arguments so that I am still helpful to the village.

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52 minutes ago, Master Elodin said:

Kas, could you possibly respond to my edited post? I also, unless there's some direct evidence, don't believe that plausibility is a very strong argument in a game with so many unknowns and should only be really considered in a lynch if it's the only argument or close to it.

I don't really see the point in responding to a statement that's more speculation than any real charge, but sure, if you want me to. It's interesting that you're reading it as a 'desperation' to lynch Ecthelion: for one, if it is in fact desperation (however does that evidence arise?), then one would have to ask for your basis of such an assessment. Was it, perhaps, the fact I voted twice on Ecthelion? I was a bit more reticent at first, but simply decided to put all my cards on the table. And since I've noticed players these days don't seem keen to really read back on the cycle, I wanted a single post that made it clear A. why I was suspicious of Ecthelion, and B. that I actually have an outstanding vote on Ecthelion.

While I don't think plausibility is all that strong, I do think it's stronger than mere possibility. (And I suspect this is a distinction between plausibility and possibility that most would agree with: it is possible, but not plausible, that there is a vigilante in this game. It's always possible the M'Hael is messing with us, but that's certainly not a plausible interpretation.) So that being said: to put it another way, being selective with our evidential standards demonstrates a rational failing - or at the very least, bias. If you can at least concede it is plausible that the Eliminators have no reason to be deeply involved in this lynch, then you should also exercise the same standards of evidence and probabilistic evaluation with regard to the claim that the Eliminators are deeply involved in this lynch, at this point in time.

 

36 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Kasimir - Seems to be generally helpful. Still, you were the one who started the vote on Ecth due to the items he held. Which was illogical of you. Sure, Elenion was the first one to vote for Ecth, but that was a poke vote. Was your vote a gag vote gone wrong? Why, as others have pointed out, did you seem so eager to lynch Ecth?


And so, based on this, I am going to vote Kynedath. Of all the posts that were made last cycle, yours felt the weakest and most forced. Your vote on Lopen was pointed out by Rae and Lopen as being forced, and your vote switch to Ecth on the basis of the Five Tenets felt even more forced, especially as you defended that switch to Rae as something with real and possible evidence, somethign with facts and analysis. There is also the fact that this is a lynch for information. Think about it. If Kynedath turns out to be an Assassin, it is almost certain that Arinian is too, and all those who voted on Ecthelion based on the 'Five Tenet' reason suddenly become all the more suspect, namely Kasimir. It might also throw light on those who shifted the vote to Ecth, such as Sart, Stick and Alvron. 


I'll be out all afternoon tomorrow. I might be able to check in on my phone to change my vote if necessary, but it's not a promise. Good night, all. 

 


Since I'm dealing with questions already, might as well tackle this one. Being 'eager' to lynch Ecth is a (value) judgement. In fact, it's an interpretation you're imposing on my actions. And that's fine: a lot of this game is about us interpreting actions and utterances within a given framework and trying to convince other players to go with our framework. But this means that since I start by distrusting everyone, I'm going to ask you what reason you have to ground your framework - why should I 'buy in' to your framework? Why should I be convinced by one that adds the value judgement of 'eagerness' to my vote on Ecthelion? One could just as easily say I was being aggressive - which is hardly new for my playstyle in QFs and in vanilla games in general. So, what reason do you have to prefer this assessment to aggression, hmm?

"It was illogical of you." Okay, them's fighting words. Now, I will concede this: I speed-read the M'Hael's clarification about items being allocated prior to alignment and would have voted someone else if I'd been more careful about reading those, or if I'd come back on in time to see Lopen's flagging that component. But illogical? Against existing evidence, sure. But don't come riding in on a high horse and talk to me about logic - for one, logic is the business of validity. Logic is about making statements that, given the premises, insure a conclusion that cannot be false. You want logic? Sure. One of you show me a deductive argument: otherwise, all of you are illogical. Show me a Day One lynch - or any lynch based on reasoning that relies strictly on modus ponens, or any other logical form that is neither inferential nor inductive. Then you have the right to tell me something is illogical. So, clearly you're thinking about soundness, which goes beyond validity to look at whether the premises are true. And I concede soundness, as I've already mentioned - I should have been more careful and not speed-read. But okay, even then: show me a Day One lynch that was thoroughly, unassailably sound, and I'll think about conceding it. Do you think it any more logical, then, to throw three to four votes on someone just for not showing up on the first day? (This has nothing to do with Arinian's guilt or lack thereof: strictly the reasoning/inference that it's suspicious if he hadn't said anything on Cycle One. Do you seriously consider that any more 'logical'?)

Try not to stay on high horses, friend. We're all companions in guilt here, and none of us thus far are going to be winning gold stars for logic.

Edit: Oh, in case you're wondering? This is not eagerness. It's investment. It's the investment of teaching basic logic for a living. Good night to all for real.

Edited by Kasimir
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56 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Alvron - What exactly are you committing? Hopped on the Ecth bandwagon for no explained reason. Voted on STINK  as he believes that the circumstances of Lopen and Ecth's death is similar to MR18. Not the strongest of reasons, I have to say.

Stink - Has not said anything other than RP

Orlok - Dropped a vote on Alvron without reasoning.

How nice of you to put the three things I'm going to talk about in order, in your post.

So, Alv's vote on me. I think we all know that it's just not a strong post at all. Even if we assume that I am actually evil, why would I do exactly the same kills? And it wouldn't be an IKYK, as it's just not a smart move anyway considering that. So yeah, think he just wants to throw another vote on me for some reason.

STINK not saying anything - Yeah, I wasn't getting involved in the mess that was the D1 lynch. Also there's no point for me to get involved in the D1 lynch when I go to sleep like 5 or so hours before rollover, so miss out on all the fun bits of a D1 lynch.

Orlok - Didn't actually vote for Alv, for one. Also, would have reasoning even if he did.

Also Doc, what's with the 'spectator on the side' stuff? You could have tried to stop the 'illogical' lynch if you wanted to, but instead you wait for the next cycle? 

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I'm going to put a vote on Cloudjumper. He was up for the lynch when he voted on Arinian; however, he failed to mention that in his post. In fact, this is how he voted for Arinian.

Quote

Arinian, what do you think about all of this?

That seems very suspicious to me. If you're voting to save your life, you need to acknowledge that. Adding a poke vote to someone who already has 2 poke votes is counter-productive. They haven't responded yet, so piling on more votes won't do anything. In addition, Lopen voted on Cloud, and was then killed. It could be a coincidence, but I'd like to see what Cloud has to say on the matter.

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Thendir woke up.   He shook his head, trying to clear out the moths that had likely flown in while he had been sleeping.  Moths tended to do that to him.  He had had the oddest dreams...  Someone had screamed in the night, waking Thendir up.  He had rolled over, and gone back to sleep, but still!  People.  Always so... screamy.  Even now, people were shouting, arguing, and being generally annoying.  Thendir wandered over to a hole he had made in the floor sometime last night.  Through it, he could see the people talking.  He squinted.  Hmmm.  Kjarten was yelling at Helchon, and becoming quite red in the face.   Helchon had backed into a corner, and was weathering the tirade rather quietly.  Thendir smirked.  That's what you get when you attempt to talk to a philosopher about logic.  Hmph.  After a quick look around, Thendir hefted his [Staff] and made his way downstairs.

The views expressed by Thendir definitely don't necessarily mirror those of the writer.

2 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Magestar - has not posted last cycle. @Magestar

 

Magestar- Was suddenly, unexpectedly, and physically unable to post on the Shard last cycle.  Which is also why I couldn't contact Hael to say I couldn't post, because I couldn't PM either. :P  

Eh Hem.  After reading over the last cycle, the people who really stuck out to me as suspicious were Lopen, Kynedath, and Alv, in that order.  Lopen turned out to be village, so I'm not sure what to make of that.  Doc really stuck out to me as very village, having played with Doc as both a villager and an Elim, so I'm not really suspicious of them at all.  Kas seems to be pretty village to me, and everyone else is sort of in between.  Overall, I feel the best place to put my vote for now is Kynedath.  Also, someone should ask me why I think Alv is suspicious. :D

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1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

Kynedath - Voted on Lopen. Accused him of trying to shift suspicion. As others have pointed out, this accusation felt kind of forced. I'm inclined to suspect you a little. Later voted on Ecthelion based on the items he had. Wondered why someone would try to save Ecth. Said he changed his vote to Ecth because the vote was more fact-based? Kynedath, the whole thing with the items, which you basically said was your only reason for voting Ecth, is not fact-based. I'd argue your suspicion of Lopen made more sense than your vote on Ecth.

And so, based on this, I am going to vote Kynedath. Of all the posts that were made last cycle, yours felt the weakest and most forced. Your vote on Lopen was pointed out by Rae and Lopen as being forced, and your vote switch to Ecth on the basis of the Five Tenets felt even more forced, especially as you defended that switch to Rae as something with real and possible evidence, somethign with facts and analysis. There is also the fact that this is a lynch for information. Think about it. If Kynedath turns out to be an Assassin, it is almost certain that Arinian is too, and all those who voted on Ecthelion based on the 'Five Tenet' reason suddenly become all the more suspect, namely Kasimir. It might also throw light on those who shifted the vote to Ecth, such as Sart, Stick and Alvron. 

Yeah, I figured I'd draw some fire from all of this. Let me clear something off first. I'm not good at SE. I've never claimed to be. I make a metric ton of mistakes all the time. I know that this isn't an excuse, but I just want to make that abundantly clear.

Now to actually defend myself. If my accusations feel forced, it's because I think that we need information. I felt that we need to have peoples reactions and therefore reached for something to accuse someone of. It was not very well founded I will admit, but I just wanted more information. My initial vote on Ecthelion was because of his items, but when the counter-evidence was presented, I didn't retract my vote. I did that because, again, I thought we needed information. Based on Ecthelions innocence, I would have been able to form suspicions. That is what happens on Day 1. Most likely an innocent villager will die and we try to go from there and lynch eliminators based on the information collected from people's reactions and interactions.

My posts felt weak and forced because I'm not used to Day 1 lynches. I've said that before. Under normal circumstances, I am avidly against Day 1 lynches. Then again, we don't have any roles this game, so we need to gather information another way. I defended my vote as facts and analysis before the info came out that that wasn't true. I had looked over the details that were later put out. I had made a mistake. But I didn't update my vote because, again, we need information and I felt like lynching Ecthelion was going to give us the most of that.

If you want to lynch me for info . . . go ahead I guess. I can't really deny that since that is the entire base of my argument. But I didn't try to save Arinian. At least not on purpose. I just didn't see everyone's reason for trying to lynch them when all they had done was not say anything yet.

9 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Eh Hem.  After reading over the last cycle, the people who really stuck out to me as suspicious were Lopen, Kynedath, and Alv, in that order.  Lopen turned out to be village, so I'm not sure what to make of that.  Doc really stuck out to me as very village, having played with Doc as both a villager and an Elim, so I'm not really suspicious of them at all.  Kas seems to be pretty village to me, and everyone else is sort of in between.  Overall, I feel the best place to put my vote for now is Kynedath.  Also, someone should ask me why I think Alv is suspicious. :D

May I ask why you find me suspicious? Is it just for the reasons Doc stated? Or is there more to it? I would just like to know so that I can defend myself from it if I haven't already.

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8 hours ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

I'm looking at all the stuff those guys have and I kinda regret being a begger.

Cos all I have is a sack.

Note worries though I guess, maybe I'll put a hat on, that might help

Or maybe I should pretend to be a priest again!

@Haelbarde Can you give DA half of my gold coins at the end of the cycle please?

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The relevant competing lynch candidates have been bolded for ease of reference. That's certainly fairly odd; at the very least, it certainly seems to indicate that JUQ wasn't terribly bothered about which way the votes were falling. That's fair, given we don't have any power roles to worry about this time around, but even so. I've noted his views on the lynch appear rather passive, but that being said, as previously mentioned, I'm not really fond of considering that to be particularly damning in any way, since Villagers have also been lynched for disapproving of Day One lynches. It would be good if people who played with JUQ can confirm if that tends to be his view, though.

I've played a grand total of two finished games (one was a faction game and the other I was lynched D2), and there are two on-going. I don't think anyone here has played with me much at all :P 

I didn't actually pay attention to the votes, I just knew that more people would place votes on Ecth, because that's how bandwagons work. It looks suspiciously like the elims were trying to save their comrade, so I'm putting a vote on Arinian.

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3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

And so, based on this, I am going to vote Kynedath. Of all the posts that were made last cycle, yours felt the weakest and most forced. Your vote on Lopen was pointed out by Rae and Lopen as being forced, and your vote switch to Ecth on the basis of the Five Tenets felt even more forced, especially as you defended that switch to Rae as something with real and possible evidence, somethign with facts and analysis. There is also the fact that this is a lynch for information. Think about it. If Kynedath turns out to be an Assassin, it is almost certain that Arinian is too, and all those who voted on Ecthelion based on the 'Five Tenet' reason suddenly become all the more suspect, namely Kasimir. It might also throw light on those who shifted the vote to Ecth, such as Sart, Stick and Alvron. 

 
 

So if Kynedath gonna be Assassin I'm bad guy too? Huh...

34 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Now to actually defend myself. If my accusations feel forced, it's because I think that we need information. I felt that we need to have peoples reactions and therefore reached for something to accuse someone of. It was not very well founded I will admit, but I just wanted more information. My initial vote on Ecthelion was because of his items, but when the counter-evidence was presented, I didn't retract my vote. I did that because, again, I thought we needed information. Based on Ecthelions innocence, I would have been able to form suspicions. That is what happens on Day 1. Most likely an innocent villager will die and we try to go from there and lynch eliminators based on the information collected from people's reactions and interactions.

And you want more information? Well then I know a way out of this situation. :D 

Stick  Kynedath

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STINK(1): Alvron

Arinian(1): Kasimir, Nylai, JUQ

Stick(0): Arinian

Joe(0): Kasimir

JUQ(1): Kasimir

Kynedath(1): Doc12, Mage, Arinian

Cloudjumper(1): Sart

[ I may have missed votes in the above count]

Looks like Kynedath's getting lynched, I'm fine with that. Tho last minute votes always exist. I've decided not to vote this cycle unless my vote's needed. And I don't wanna be one of the people held responsible if Kynedath's a villager.

 

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Quote

Now to actually defend myself. If my accusations feel forced, it's because I think that we need information. I felt that we need to have peoples reactions and therefore reached for something to accuse someone of. It was not very well founded I will admit, but I just wanted more information. My initial vote on Ecthelion was because of his items, but when the counter-evidence was presented, I didn't retract my vote. I did that because, again, I thought we needed information. Based on Ecthelions innocence, I would have been able to form suspicions. That is what happens on Day 1. Most likely an innocent villager will die and we try to go from there and lynch eliminators based on the information collected from people's reactions and interactions.

My posts felt weak and forced because I'm not used to Day 1 lynches. I've said that before. Under normal circumstances, I am avidly against Day 1 lynches. Then again, we don't have any roles this game, so we need to gather information another way. I defended my vote as facts and analysis before the info came out that that wasn't true. I had looked over the details that were later put out. I had made a mistake. But I didn't update my vote because, again, we need information and I felt like lynching Ecthelion was going to give us the most of that.

If you want to lynch me for info . . . go ahead I guess. I can't really deny that since that is the entire base of my argument. But I didn't try to save Arinian. At least not on purpose. I just didn't see everyone's reason for trying to lynch them when all they had done was not say anything yet

Kynedath. Your defense of yourself, just like your accusation of Lopen, strikes me as off.

You voted on Ecth because of his items, but when information was given that items had no bearing on alignment, you kept your vote on him. You wanted more information. It sounds like you actually didn't care what Ecth's alignment was, as long as you got someone lynched. It might be true that most D1 lynches land on an innocent villager, but that doesn't mean that we strive to have them land on an innocent villager. You sound like you wanted someone dead for the sake of it, something that an eliminator would want.

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38 minutes ago, Arinian said:

So if Kynedath gonna be Assassin I'm bad guy too? Huh...

And you want more information? Well then I know a way out of this situation. :D 

Stick  Kynedath

So you accept the statement that you and I have the same alignment, and you choose to lynch me, knowing that if I'm an assassin, the village is coming after you next.

Now me, knowing that I'm innocent, thinks that there are a couple options. Either you are malicious and don't want to die, or else you are an assassin and this is an easy way for you to clear yourself with the rest of the village and kill one of us off at the same time.

But let's entertainthe idea that I am an eliminator. If that was the case, then my role would be revealed as such and the village has soft decided that Arinian would also be an eliminator. So therefore Arinian would die too. At least if you guys acted on that. So what good would it do for an eliminator to kill another eliminator if it meant they would die too? It makes no sense! 

Arinian I know that it's one of the first two options that I stated, and I think it's probably the second one.

And yes, I am voting to save myself, but I'm not JUST voting to save myself. My arguments are valid enough to base a vote off of.

3 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Kynedath. Your defense of yourself, just like your accusation of Lopen, strikes me as off.

You voted on Ecth because of his items, but when information was given that items had no bearing on alignment, you kept your vote on him. You wanted more information. It sounds like you actually didn't care what Ecth's alignment was, as long as you got someone lynched. It might be true that most D1 lynches land on an innocent villager, but that doesn't mean that we strive to have them land on an innocent villager. You sound like you wanted someone dead for the sake of it, something that an eliminator would want.

If I was an eliminator I would lay low. That's what I found as an eliminator. I can't prove it, but it's logical. Going after people just for the sake of killing them isn't what I would do. I know that isn't a proper defense, but I don't know how else to defend from that.

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You guys all need to chill out lol. I'm willing to say that Kynedath is inno, and that Rae is evil. Now, some of you might be thinking that STINK is insane! What reasoning does he even have? And to answer, I'll say that I have better reasoning than the vote on Kynedath.

For one, it wasn't just Kynedath that voted for Ecth and kept the vote on before the whole item thing, and in fact seemed to be mostly following Kas in terms of 'we need a better lynch target'. So now, you'll say that Kynedath was bandwagoning and should die, right?

Well, they might have been bandwagoning, but do you know who completely flat out bandwagoned and was also a deciding vote fairly late in the cycle? Alv. So Rae, why aren't we seeing a focus on Alv? A potential teammate maybe? We'll find out when you're lynched, won't we? 

So yes, this is me asking everyone to change their votes from another lynch where everyone is voting on people because they feel that they have to vote on someone or something, as the reasons for Kynedath are also reasons for more experienced players. So yeah, looks to me like you all just wanna dominate the lynch for some reason. 

#VoteRaeForLynch

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6 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

So you accept the statement that you and I have the same alignment, and you choose to lynch me, knowing that if I'm an assassin, the village is coming after you next.

Now me, knowing that I'm innocent, thinks that there are a couple options. Either you are malicious and don't want to die, or else you are an assassin and this is an easy way for you to clear yourself with the rest of the village and kill one of us off at the same time.

But let's entertainthe idea that I am an eliminator. If that was the case, then my role would be revealed as such and the village has soft decided that Arinian would also be an eliminator. So therefore Arinian would die too. At least if you guys acted on that. So what good would it do for an eliminator to kill another eliminator if it meant they would die too? It makes no sense! 

Arinian I know that it's one of the first two options that I stated, and I think it's probably the second one.

And yes, I am voting to save myself, but I'm not JUST voting to save myself. My arguments are valid enough to base a vote off of.

No you wrong in all. I'm just like to make people nervous little bit, sorry :D. Truly I don't think that you are suspicious(absolutely not suspicious for me). Right now I gonna agree with Stink. I'm not analyzed votes of previous day but Rae's vote makes me suspicious.

Kynedath Rae

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STINK(1): Alvron

Arinian(3): Kasimir, Nylai, JUQ, Kynedath

Stick(0): Arinian

Joe(0): Kasimir

JUQ(1): Kasimir

Kynedath(3): Doc12, Mage, Arinian, Rae

Cloudjumper(1): Sart

Rae(2): STINK, Arinian 

Hhmm. What happens to tied votes again? A coin flip?

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2 hours ago, Kynedath said:

May I ask why you find me suspicious? Is it just for the reasons Doc stated? Or is there more to it? I would just like to know so that I can defend myself from it if I haven't already.

Mostly, I felt you're posts felt incohesive and forced.  You're general tone spoke 'Off' to me, and that makes me nervous.  Reading through C1, I found you and Lopen to be the most suspicious.  Lopen turned out to be good.  -_-  My reads aren't always accurate.  

However, I've considered a few things.  1, I've never played with you before, if I remember correctly.  So I don't know how you act normally.  2, I think you've put together a pretty good defense, and the things you've said have made sense.  3, My suspicion of you has lessened on a re-read of C1, considering the things you have said.

I'll kick myself if you turn out to be an Elim, but I don't think I want to be part of a Kynedath lynch RN.  I'm also not seeing a Rae lynch, but I need to look at that more closely.


"And, on another note," said Thendir, after finishing his monolouge, "Could one of you young'uns ask me the really important question here?  I'm sure you can guess what it is.  You're all smart folk.  Guess!"

Thendir echoes my suspicions, to some extent, but not my reasoning.  Once I've said something, you can usually mirror the concept to Thendir.   The reverse, however, is not always true. :P 

Edited by Magestar
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8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

For now, I'll settle for poking Joe, I guess. If I have the time, I'll come back and see what else I can make of this. What's up, A Joe in the Bush? Is A Joe in the Hand better? What is a Joe, even?

"A Joe in the Bush is worth two in the Hand."

And for now, I'm watching what's going on and taking notes. I generally try to come up with a clever loopholey plan to ensure victory, but with no roles, All I can really do is analyse, and I'm not actually the best at that. But since the point of the game is analysis, and I need to say thing in order to be analysed, or I'll be lynched for lurking, Here's my current thoughts.:

16 hours ago, Alvron said:

Ladric (Stink).  Lopen's death feels similar to MR18.  Plus I wouldn't put it past Hael to have almost the same team to teach us a lesson.

I disagree. Hael might have done a similar team, but doing the same team would lead to pattern recognition, Like when Mailliw did that with his two roshar games. I'm not saying Stink can't be an eliminator, i just don't think it's for that reason.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

1. The M'Hael has a sort of 'free hammer' card for the Eliminators, allowing them to put in all their votes at once via the GM. But they can only do so once. The way I see it, it's essentially going to be the tool they use at the end-game, because concerted last minute voting is just going to be super-suspicious, for one, and for another, it's also going to be super-suspicious if they're not putting the votes in themselves but are doing so by Hael. So I'm not sure this is a possibility worth worrying too much about, but maybe I'm overlooking something.

2. I'm not sure it's worth poke-voting anyone who A. has yet to post, and B. has used up their free chance, because barring any special dispensations, if they don't show up, they'll die anyway. That's got to be a lot more scary than having a lone poke-vote on them. Of course, the question is if we know if anyone has any special dispensations - my impression of what the M'Hael said is that Kipper gets an extra free chance, so he still hasn't used up his free chance. Meaning the only person in the 'Ticking Death Clock' territory would be Magestar. Still, best to check: M'Hael, would it be possible to check who currently has dispensation/ a bonus free waiver on their non-posting for this cycle? [Separate from the freebie we already get.]

For now: Arinian. You mentioned that if you were lynched, Odium would have to give up his Shard to you, which is a pretty poetic way of saying you'd hate everyone for doing that. That seems like a pretty strong reaction: care to offer some context to it?

Edited to add: I think the poke-vote does have its uses in terms of forcing people to actually say something substantive instead of presenting substantial RP or a vote as a way of 'gaming' the M'Hael's filter, though. Just that it's worth noting that the inactivity filter might take care of some issues for us.

1. I see absolutely no point in worrying about that. Doing so will reveal their entire team, so they can't do it unless it will make them win. So there's no point in thinking about what to do after it's done. 

2. I've never really found poke votes all that useful anyway.

5 hours ago, Nyali said:

I don't have time right now for RP or a long post, but I'm going to vote for Arinian. When there's a close vote like there was last night, it makes me suspicious that the person who had the second most votes was an elim and that other elims voted for the lynchee to save them. This, to me, puts a little suspicion on Alvron and Arinian. I know it's not a strong argument, but it's all I've got in my limited SE time.

I find it more likely that neither of them were elims. Most of the votes didn't have many reasons behind them, so chances are an elim didn't get more than a vote.

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'd actually like to keep my vote on Joe just because I get worried about him fading into the background, but I guess I should put my money (vote?) where my mouth is and go for JUQ instead. I'd like to hear a bit more about why he thinks there ought to be an Eliminator on the Ecthelion vote - it's not as if we haven't had past games where the Eliminators simply sit by the side and laugh at us, fools all, as we lynch someone they know to be innocent. Why think there is Eliminator involvement in this case?

I'll give you one obvious reason to believe so: if you think Arinian is an Eliminator, and the push on Ecthelion was to keep him safe. Because quite frankly, otherwise, an Eliminator surely has much less suspicion-invoking targets: it's ridiculously easy to just slap a poke vote down and disappear for the rest of the cycle or keep 'poking' people and retracting at the vaguest hint of activity, no matter how constructive. So here's one caveat: perhaps they thought a Cycle One lynch was unlikely. But despite Ecthelion, Straw (at least ambiguously so) and JUQ claiming to be against Cycle One lynches, with cloudjumper as a more sulky "do it just don't lynch me", they were not pushing strongly for a no-lynch result. It doesn't seem obvious the Eliminators would have to work hard to actively force a lynch today: votes were still being thrown. We now know Ecthelion was Village, but then if both Arinian and Ecthelion are Villagers, then it's absolutely pointless for the Eliminators to get involved in the bandwagon since they literally have no reason to favour Arinian's death over Ecthelion's, apart from casting suspicion on Arinian as an Eliminator to be saved.

But even that seems slightly flimsy. Even if you do think Arinian was an Eliminator, it's unclear what pushing for Ecthelion would have done for them. All the votes on Arinian were ostensible 'poke votes', to be retracted the moment Arinian showed up. (And my impression thus far is that it's still the norm that poke votes are lightly placed and easily retracted.) That being said, it's thus not clear he was in any active danger to begin with.

Is that it, then? Do you think Arinian is an Eliminator? (I'll admit, I think I've outlined a plausible line of reasoning, but plausibility does not entail truth. I'd be fine with an Arinian lynch, if only to get some information on how the Eliminator team is playing this, but my current sense is that I don't see a reason for them to have dipped in deep.) And, good night!

Again, i really don't think we have any reason to believe that Arinian was an eliminator

4 hours ago, Doc12 said:

So, what happened in the previous cycle? After a bunch of votes being thrown on everybody, the bandwagons start forming. The two main bandwagons were on Ecth and Arinian, so I'll try to focus on them.

The first to vote on Arinian was Sart, and it seemed like a poke vote.  After that, Len voted on Ecth, also seemingly a poke vote. Stick was the second to throw a poke vote at Arinian. Cloud comes online and votes on Arinian. Cloud claims that they did it to break the tie, and I can confirm that there was a tie at that point. Then Kas decides to go after Ecth for the Five Tenet mention. This was what began ringing alarm bells for me, I guess. After this, Kynedath votes on Ecth for the same reason. 

Ecth: Elenion, Kasimir, Kynedath

Arinian: Sart, Stick, Cloudjumper

At this point Ecth and Arinian are tied. Then JUQ puts Arinian in the lead with his vote. After this, Stick and Sart both withdraw their votes. Alvron enters and throws a vote on Ecth. Nyali votes on Ecth, then withdraws the vote when she realized how illogical the vote was. Ecth votes on Arinian. 

Ecth: Elenion, Kasimir, Kynedath, Alvron

Arinian: Cloudjumper, JUQ, Ecth.

I am not sure what to make of this. The first person to reach three votes was actually Arinian, until Kynedath joined in the vote. After that Arinian was in the lead until Sart and Stick withdrew their votes. I feel that this is strange and warrants watching. Arinian is suspicious. However, I have another suspect currently whom I feel is more suspicious, and will explain below.


Stick - I'm inclined to believe you for now, as I have seen your behaviour in MR18. Know that that's not necessarily a valid excuse though, as you might have learned from that experience. For now, I am inclined to believe you. Still, if you start posting less, I'll zero in on you.

Kynedath - Voted on Lopen. Accused him of trying to shift suspicion. As others have pointed out, this accusation felt kind of forced. I'm inclined to suspect you a little. Later voted on Ecthelion based on the items he had. Wondered why someone would try to save Ecth. Said he changed his vote to Ecth because the vote was more fact-based? Kynedath, the whole thing with the items, which you basically said was your only reason for voting Ecth, is not fact-based. I'd argue your suspicion of Lopen made more sense than your vote on Ecth.

Kasimir - Seems to be generally helpful. Still, you were the one who started the vote on Ecth due to the items he held. Which was illogical of you. Sure, Elenion was the first one to vote for Ecth, but that was a poke vote. Was your vote a gag vote gone wrong? Why, as others have pointed out, did you seem so eager to lynch Ecth?

Arinian - Voted Stick the first day, because why not? And his vote doesn't matter. Has not said much. Was in the lead for the lynch until lots of vote changing happened.

Burnt - Has not said anything other than RP

JUQ - Was in favor of waiting until someone acted suspicious before lynching. A passive position to take. Voted on Arinian.

Alvron - What exactly are you committing? Hopped on the Ecth bandwagon for no explained reason. Voted on STINK  as he believes that the circumstances of Lopen and Ecth's death is similar to MR18. Not the strongest of reasons, I have to say.

Stink - Has not said anything other than RP

Orlok - Dropped a vote on Alvron without reasoning.

Sart - Poke voted Arinian. Poke voted Alvron.

Rae - Voted on Kynedath for his forced-sounding suspicion on Lopen. A suspicion I'm currently inclined to agree with. 

Assassin - Has not posted anything other than RP

Magestar - has not posted last cycle. @Magestar

Elodin - Did not post last cycle. Came in late. Suspects Kas, but does not want anyone to vote based on that as his logic might be faulty. Is just asking JUQ for his thoughts. I feel that this is slightly suspicious, the classic elim tactic of subtly nudging us to feel that someone is suspicious but giving themselves an out just in case. I myself tried that when I was an Eliminator, Wonko did it in MR18... Yeah. I would recommend you take a stance, Elodin, and stick to it.

Nyali - Poke voted Assassin, dropped vote in favor of Ecth, but then dropped the vote when she realized how illogical it was. Currently is voting for Arinian due to the fact that he had the second most votes. Something I'm inclined to agree with.

Cloudjumper - Was not in favor of a day one lynch, seems to want only to survive. Popped up to throw a vote on Arinian. Claimed it was to break a tie later. Was confirmed to be a tie at that point of time.

Joe - Showed up in response to Ecth's poke vote to say that Stick hasn't posted yet. Has not said anything else.

Elenion - Was the first to throw a vote on Ecth. Later maintained his vote due to the item that Ecth had. Illogical. 

Darkness -...I don't have anything to say. 


And so, based on this, I am going to vote Kynedath. Of all the posts that were made last cycle, yours felt the weakest and most forced. Your vote on Lopen was pointed out by Rae and Lopen as being forced, and your vote switch to Ecth on the basis of the Five Tenets felt even more forced, especially as you defended that switch to Rae as something with real and possible evidence, somethign with facts and analysis. There is also the fact that this is a lynch for information. Think about it. If Kynedath turns out to be an Assassin, it is almost certain that Arinian is too, and all those who voted on Ecthelion based on the 'Five Tenet' reason suddenly become all the more suspect, namely Kasimir. It might also throw light on those who shifted the vote to Ecth, such as Sart, Stick and Alvron. 


I'll be out all afternoon tomorrow. I might be able to check in on my phone to change my vote if necessary, but it's not a promise. Good night, all. 

 

I'm showing up again! Still not voting though. But thanks for the summary.

3 hours ago, Sart said:

I'm going to put a vote on Cloudjumper. He was up for the lynch when he voted on Arinian; however, he failed to mention that in his post. In fact, this is how he voted for Arinian.

That seems very suspicious to me. If you're voting to save your life, you need to acknowledge that. Adding a poke vote to someone who already has 2 poke votes is counter-productive. They haven't responded yet, so piling on more votes won't do anything. In addition, Lopen voted on Cloud, and was then killed. It could be a coincidence, but I'd like to see what Cloud has to say on the matter.

This one I kind of see as suspicious. I might end up voting for him. (Cloud, Not Sart) 

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Eh Hem.  After reading over the last cycle, the people who really stuck out to me as suspicious were Lopen, Kynedath, and Alv, in that order.  Lopen turned out to be village, so I'm not sure what to make of that.  Doc really stuck out to me as very village, having played with Doc as both a villager and an Elim, so I'm not really suspicious of them at all.  Kas seems to be pretty village to me, and everyone else is sort of in between.  Overall, I feel the best place to put my vote for now is Kynedath.  Also, someone should ask me why I think Alv is suspicious. :D

Solid reasoning.

1 hour ago, JUQ said:

I've played a grand total of two finished games (one was a faction game and the other I was lynched D2), and there are two on-going. I don't think anyone here has played with me much at all :P 

I didn't actually pay attention to the votes, I just knew that more people would place votes on Ecth, because that's how bandwagons work. It looks suspiciously like the elims were trying to save their comrade, so I'm putting a vote on Arinian.

Again, I disagree with that chain of logic.

1 hour ago, Arinian said:

So if Kynedath gonna be Assassin I'm bad guy too? Huh...

And you want more information? Well then I know a way out of this situation. :D 

Stick  Kynedath

Blatant Self preservation vote is Blatant.

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Kynedath. Your defense of yourself, just like your accusation of Lopen, strikes me as off.

You voted on Ecth because of his items, but when information was given that items had no bearing on alignment, you kept your vote on him. You wanted more information. It sounds like you actually didn't care what Ecth's alignment was, as long as you got someone lynched. It might be true that most D1 lynches land on an innocent villager, but that doesn't mean that we strive to have them land on an innocent villager. You sound like you wanted someone dead for the sake of it, something that an eliminator would want.

^Solid reasons on Rae's part. Admittedly, that's a solid argument for both Village!Rae and Assassin!Rae. That strikes me as Rae's actual logic, not something she did to support or defend fellow eliminators, so I'm a bit more trusting of Rae (Even though she's a lil backstabber)

54 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

So you accept the statement that you and I have the same alignment, and you choose to lynch me, knowing that if I'm an assassin, the village is coming after you next.

Now me, knowing that I'm innocent, thinks that there are a couple options. Either you are malicious and don't want to die, or else you are an assassin and this is an easy way for you to clear yourself with the rest of the village and kill one of us off at the same time.

But let's entertainthe idea that I am an eliminator. If that was the case, then my role would be revealed as such and the village has soft decided that Arinian would also be an eliminator. So therefore Arinian would die too. At least if you guys acted on that. So what good would it do for an eliminator to kill another eliminator if it meant they would die too? It makes no sense! 

Arinian I know that it's one of the first two options that I stated, and I think it's probably the second one.

And yes, I am voting to save myself, but I'm not JUST voting to save myself. My arguments are valid enough to base a vote off of.

If I was an eliminator I would lay low. That's what I found as an eliminator. I can't prove it, but it's logical. Going after people just for the sake of killing them isn't what I would do. I know that isn't a proper defense, but I don't know how else to defend from that.

Solid defense on Kyne's part. Solid enough that I won't vote on him this turn at least.

48 minutes ago, STINK said:

You guys all need to chill out lol. I'm willing to say that Kynedath is inno, and that Rae is evil. Now, some of you might be thinking that STINK is insane! What reasoning does he even have? And to answer, I'll say that I have better reasoning than the vote on Kynedath.

For one, it wasn't just Kynedath that voted for Ecth and kept the vote on before the whole item thing, and in fact seemed to be mostly following Kas in terms of 'we need a better lynch target'. So now, you'll say that Kynedath was bandwagoning and should die, right?

Well, they might have been bandwagoning, but do you know who completely flat out bandwagoned and was also a deciding vote fairly late in the cycle? Alv. So Rae, why aren't we seeing a focus on Alv? A potential teammate maybe? We'll find out when you're lynched, won't we? 

So yes, this is me asking everyone to change their votes from another lynch where everyone is voting on people because they feel that they have to vote on someone or something, as the reasons for Kynedath are also reasons for more experienced players. So yeah, looks to me like you all just wanna dominate the lynch for some reason. 

#VoteRaeForLynch

Like I said, I soft trust Rae at this point, simply for her organic logic.

38 minutes ago, Arinian said:

No you wrong in all. I'm just like to make people nervous little bit, sorry :D. Truly I don't think that you are suspicious(absolutely not suspicious for me). Right now I gonna agree with Stink. I'm not analyzed votes of previous day but Rae's vote makes me suspicious.

Kynedath Rae

Like I said, I soft trust Rae.

So Kyne and Arin are tied for the lynch. I'm not suspicious enough of either of them to lynch them, Even though it won't do much, I'll toss a vote on Cloud Jumper, since I'm the most suspicious of him.

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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24 minutes ago, Arinian said:

No you wrong in all. I'm just like to make people nervous little bit, sorry :D. Truly I don't think that you are suspicious(absolutely not suspicious for me). Right now I gonna agree with Stink. I'm not analyzed votes of previous day but Rae's vote makes me suspicious.

Kynedath Rae

Uhhh . . . I'm not sure what to think right now. You could be telling the truth, but flipping your vote like that sets off a lot of alarms in my head. It doesn't seem right.

34 minutes ago, STINK said:

You guys all need to chill out lol. I'm willing to say that Kynedath is inno, and that Rae is evil. Now, some of you might be thinking that STINK is insane! What reasoning does he even have? And to answer, I'll say that I have better reasoning than the vote on Kynedath.

For one, it wasn't just Kynedath that voted for Ecth and kept the vote on before the whole item thing, and in fact seemed to be mostly following Kas in terms of 'we need a better lynch target'. So now, you'll say that Kynedath was bandwagoning and should die, right?

Well, they might have been bandwagoning, but do you know who completely flat out bandwagoned and was also a deciding vote fairly late in the cycle? Alv. So Rae, why aren't we seeing a focus on Alv? A potential teammate maybe? We'll find out when you're lynched, won't we? 

So yes, this is me asking everyone to change their votes from another lynch where everyone is voting on people because they feel that they have to vote on someone or something, as the reasons for Kynedath are also reasons for more experienced players. So yeah, looks to me like you all just wanna dominate the lynch for some reason. 

#VoteRaeForLynch

STINK, What you are saying about Rae could also be a good lead, but it also seems like something is off there. I know that I can't count anything out with you since you're the most erratic player I know of, but that seemed like a deflection. Besides, yes, Rae did have the same reasons to vote on Alv as for me, but I am the one on the chopping block and I hadn't played very well before that either. I kind of expected the heat that I received. I'll probably get accused of trying to save Rae, but I'm not. I just don't see your logic in this.

But why would you all of a sudden defend me? Would you be trying to distract people from something I said? Did I strike a flaw in the logic of your teammate?

Oh! Here we go, what if Arinian made a mistake due to their inexperience (i recall them saying this was their first game) and then you had to do something to save them.Your call to change the vote and Arinians vote swap seem to line up with each other suspiciously. It would be possible for you to have told them what to do in a doc and then shortly thereafter give them an out. You couldn't just vote for me, because that just would have proved the point that I made. You had to somehow keep me from dying and convicting your teammate, so you tried to swing the vote completely. Ballsy move, but I would expect nothing less from the mighty STINK.

You guys are all going to accuse me of trying to deflect attention away from myself, but honestly, at this point, if I die and prove to you that I'm innocent, and therefore give you guys proof that these guys are eliminators (if they are) then I'd call that a win for me. I could be wrong in every aspect of this, but if I'm not, then I'd be proud of myself.

I am going to keep my vote on Arinian. If my theory is correct, then they are still an eliminator, and they are a lot closer to a lynch than STINK is.

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