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Cycle 8 – The Purveyor of Fine Shoes
 



Kipper was lynched. He was a Guest. He had 17 gold, a Plank of Wood, a Kipper, a Fishing Rod, and Clogs.
Burnt Spaghetti was killed. She was a Guest. She had 3 gold, Wrist Irons, Green Velvet Dress, Cloth Footwraps, 5 Lockpicks, Gold Trimmed Shoes, Glass Boots, Leather Boots, White Mage Shoes, Green Velvet Shoes, Fur Boots, Huntsman Moccasins, Buckled Shoes, Sackcloth Sandals, Stitched Leather Shoes, Oiled Linen Shoes, Shoes, and Quilted Shoes.

Assassin has lost the will to live. They were a Guest. They had 8 gold, Wrist Irons, 5 Calipers, an Inkwell, and an Ebony Claymore.
OrlokTsubodai has lost the will to live. They were a Guest. He had 600 gold, a copy of 'Manifesto Cyrodil Vampyrum', and a copy of 'Galerion The Mystic'.

Nyali did not post and has lost their free pass.
JUQ did not post, but had previously organized a free pass for this cycle.

Vote Tally
Kynedath(1): Burnt Spaghetti
Kipper(1): Stick
Burnt(1): Kipper

Loot Crate

 

> 628 gold
> Cloth Footwraps
> Gold Trimmed Shoes
> Glass Boots
> Leather Boots
> White Mage Shoes
> Green Velvet Shoes
> Fur Boots
> Huntsman Moccasins
> Buckled Shoes
> Sackcloth Sandals
> Stitched Leather Shoes
> Oiled Linen Shoes
> Shoes
> Quilted Shoes
> Clogs
> 5 Lockpicks
> 2 Wrist Irons
> Plank of Wood
> Kipper
> Fishing Rod
> 5 Calipers
> Inkwell
> Ebony Claymore
> copy of 'Manifesto Cyrodil Vampyrum'
> copy of 'Galerion The Mystic'

Kynedath has taken all the things (except the stuff that just appeared).

Cycle ends in ~24 hours.

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Player List

 
  1. Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) a paranoid, slightly homicidal Bosmer Dark Brotherhood Assassin
  2. Stormblessed (Mesa the Ookla / Darkness Ascendant) an illegitimate beggar Guest
  3. Sartinia (Sart) a high elf who has lost their way Guest
  4. Boris (Elenion) has a drinking problem Dark Brotherhood Assassin
  5. Thendir (Magestar) a Dunmer, and Magister of House Telvanhi Guest
  6. Arinian (Arinian) Guest
  7. Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) is a Khajit escaped from a collector Guest
  8. Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) is an antisocial Dark Elf 
  9. Helchon (Doc) an Altmer Guest
  10. Tu (cloudjumper) is a mysterious cow smuggler Guest
  11. Stub-Tail (Alvron) a Saxhleel Guest
  12. Stick (I am a Stick)
  13. Kipper (Kipper) Kipper Guest
  14. Guilty (Elodin) until proven otherwise, but innocently harmless. Guest
  15. Innocent (Ecthelion) probably. Seems sus though. Guest
  16. Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) is a reserved Altmer. Guest
  17. Rhea (Nyali) is a Breton scholar obsessed with Dwemer technology.
  18. Jayjay (Arraenae) is a little Paranoid Guest
  19. Zelda (TheMightyLopen) is a wise Sagemer Guest
  20. Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) is a kleptomaniac kitty khajiit. Guest
  21. Kjartan & Mus (Kasimir), the Boot(s?) of Stendarr Guest
  22. John (JUQ) general
  23. Ladric (Stink) is a blank slate Guest
Edited by Haelbarde
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Aha! Here I am, and free of work for the year, so I'll be able to contribute much better in future cycles (if I can be bothered :P, and if the game is still going). Basically, I can't be bothered rereading rn, but I can glean that we're in pretty bad trouble.

Edited by JUQ
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Only...four players left. Huh. So we started off with four elims? Now if this other villager doesn't vote the elims might as well control the lynch. Hm.

Stick 

Kynedath

Nyali

JUQ

@JUQ @Nyali one of you is an elim, and the other a villager (probably). If both of you are elims, then last cycle's votes completely consisted of the villagers voting against each other which is just hilarious.

I'm leaning towards JUQ being the elim as Nyali contributed in the Elenion lynch and in Joe lynch. So here are our two elims: JUQ and Kynedath. You should probably vote, Nyali.

Edit: Why did Kipper have a Kipper XD 

Edited by I_am_a_Stick
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18 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Only...four players left. Huh. So we started off with four elims? Now if this other villager doesn't vote the elims might as well control the lynch. Hm.

Stick 

Kynedath

Nyali

JUQ

@JUQ @Nyali one of you is an elim, and the other a villager (probably). If both of you are elims, then last cycle's votes completely consisted of the villagers voting against each other which is just hilarious.

I'm leaning towards JUQ being the elim as Nyali contributed in the Elenion lynch and in Joe lynch. So here are our two elims: JUQ and Kynedath. You should probably vote, Nyali.

Edit: Why did Kipper have a Kipper XD 

Well, I don't see that I'm going to convince you that I'm not an elim without voting for Kynedath. @Nyali @Kynedath You should vote, really.

I'm gettin' townie vibes from Stick(as she said, she behaves embarrassingly different as an elim), and I'm purty sure I'm village, so that makes Nyali and Kyne our elims. If we lynch Kyne today and Nyali kills one of us, that makes it 1v1 next cycle, which means that we have a 50/50 chance of winning. So, Stick, do you feel lucky?

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4 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

You should probably vote, Nyali.

Really sorry about last cycle - work was extremely busy yesterday, and the baby was a little ill and cried nearly the entire night x.x

I think it's pretty clear that the remaining eliminators are Kynedath and JUQ, like you said.

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Waaaait. Why are three of us voting against one? The elim shouldnt be voting on Kynedath. In other words, I'm very much aware of the fact that you'll change your vote at the last moment, elim. Unless Kynedath's a villager, which I doubt, because that would suck.

11 hours ago, JUQ said:

If we lynch Kyne today and Nyali kills one of us, that makes it 1v1 next cycle, which means that we have a 50/50 chance of winning. So, Stick, do you feel lucky?

If we get to 1v1, the elims pretty much win 'cause then they'll just kill the villager at the end of the cycle lol

@Kynedath aren't you going to say anything? 

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6 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Waaaait. Why are three of us voting against one? The elim shouldnt be voting on Kynedath. In other words, I'm very much aware of the fact that you'll change your vote at the last moment, elim. Unless Kynedath's a villager, which I doubt, because that would suck.

If we get to 1v1, the elims pretty much win 'cause then they'll just kill the villager at the end of the cycle lol

@Kynedath aren't you going to say anything? 

I'm on mobile right now and I want to make an actual post but I don't have the patience on mobile. Give me an hour and a half ish

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3 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Waaaait. Why are three of us voting against one? The elim shouldnt be voting on Kynedath

I was thinking about this too when JUQ voted. I think he's planning to change his vote at the last second, probably trying to get one of us to vote for someone else so they can both pile on the same one of us. That could be why Kynedath hasn't bothered voting yet. It would, at worst, put it at 2v2, and at best at 1v1v2 or 1v3. The best thing we can do is keep the last two votes on an elim.

Remember, they can vote in secret once per game, which is there for exactly this sort of situation. Assuming I'm understanding that once per game thing they can do...

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Alright. Listen up. Here is how the board currently stands.

  • Kynedath: Village
  • Stick: Village
  • Nyali: Assassin
  • JUQ: Assassin

There is going to be four eliminators in this game total because there was 23 players to start and 3 would be way too little. There can't be five because then I would be the only villager left and all three of you would already have stacked your votes against me. We caught two, there is two left.

@I_am_a_Stick, I know that you're on my side because you pointed out that there shouldn't be three of you voting on me. An eliminator wouldn't do that. And we all think that you're a villager anyways, the previous posts say as much. So that leaves Nyali and JUQ as the eliminators.

Moving on to how to vote. The best possible for the scenario for the village (no matter who is actually villager) is 25% chances on a win. The eliminators and the village tie the vote and 50% the village survives and there is a villager and an eliminator left (due to elim kill), 50% the entire village dies (lynch and elim kill). The exact same thing happens the next turn, so again, 50% chance of village win. Add those perrcentages together and you get a 25% chance that everything works out for the village.

So Stick, sice you and I are the villagers remaining, this is what i propose we do. I know that you don't trust me, but the other two are the eliminators. If we both vote for one of the other two, then we have the best chances of still winning. I say that we both vote for one of them. I don't care which because they're both eliminaotrs, so the choice is yours. One of us will die by next turn, and we go back to another tie for the last cycle. The RNG will decide who wins.

But, I know you don't trust me and you think deep down in your heart that I'm en eliminator. I get that. Here is what I'll do. I will vote for anyone you vote for. No matter what. You have my word. That way, I don't get a say in the lynch.

Let's say that I AM an eliminator, then the vote will come down to three villagers to one eliminator since I am voting for who you vote for. I will live, and I would kill a villager. It would still come down to 1 v 1 and a 50% chance, but the first vote will have much better chances. Even if you tie the vote between me and someone else, its a 75% chance that an eliminator gets killed (50/50 the player we vote for is an elim, plus 50/50 between me and them because of a tie).

If you do vote for me, then you take a 50/50 chance that I am an eliminator. From your point of view, the stats say that it's better to vote for one of the others because no matter who you vote for, I will back you up. This is your best chance to win as a villager.

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2 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

If you do vote for me, then you take a 50/50 chance that I am an eliminator. From your point of view, the stats say that it's better to vote for one of the others because no matter who you vote for, I will back you up. This is your best chance to win as a villager.

This is a solid tactic, Kyne. You push for a 50% chance that Stick will vote for me, in which case, you and JUQ win by having JUQ change his vote last minute to me using the secret vote mechanism thing. That situation gives you a guaranteed win. If Kyne votes for JUQ instead, then you vote for JUQ for now, but then both of you switch your votes at the last second, putting it at 2v2 and giving yourselves a 75% chance of winning. So, that puts your victory chances at 87%, rather than the 75% you'd get by just revealing now.

I guess it's up to Stick as far as who she believes is the elim.

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8 minutes ago, Nyali said:

This is a solid tactic, Kyne. You push for a 50% chance that Stick will vote for me, in which case, you and JUQ win by having JUQ change his vote last minute to me using the secret vote mechanism thing. That situation gives you a guaranteed win. If Kyne votes for JUQ instead, then you vote for JUQ for now, but then both of you switch your votes at the last second, putting it at 2v2 and giving yourselves a 75% chance of winning. So, that puts your victory chances at 87%, rather than the 75% you'd get by just revealing now.

I guess it's up to Stick as far as who she believes is the elim.

See, here's the thing. I promised that I would vote for whoever Stick voted for. I'm not gonna break that promise. If She votes for JUQ, even if we were both eliminaotrs together, I would still vote for them. If She voted for you and we were eliinators together, I would still vote for you. I don't break psomises.

Here is the other thing. I know for a fact that both of you are eliminators, so I don't care who she votes for out of you two, I'll still vote for you. 

But I will say, nice use of affirmation tactics. By referring to yourself as a villager, you implant that thought inside the heads of everyone who reads your post. It's a psychologically sound way to lower suspicion without attreacting too much attention to yourself. I do it all the time.

The only thing that I would say is that you are distancing yourself from eliminators too much. By avoiding mentioning yourself as an eliminator, people are less likely to envision you as an assassin. What I did is I said "If I was an eliminator" which is the opposite of what you are trying to do. I'm trying to prove that I'm not by bringing up how what I do isn't something an eliminator would do. The drawback is that I draw attention to myself. That isn't really a problem with me since everyone is already convinced I'm evil though.

But anyways, that's probably just me rationalizing some of your speech patterns, but you never know. Maybe you do it subconciously. Maybe you even do it on purpose and I got it right. I'm kinda just looking for things to do now. Kinda bored. Psychology is fun.

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1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

But I will say, nice use of affirmation tactics. By referring to yourself as a villager, you implant that thought inside the heads of everyone who reads your post. It's a psychologically sound way to lower suspicion without attreacting too much attention to yourself. I do it all the time.

Well done. You manage to blow your own trumpet while seeming to compliment someone else.

I've just had a scary thought. What if Stick is an elim? What if she's been playing us the whole game? I guess we'll just have to take that chance.

Edited by JUQ
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Just now, Kynedath said:

. . . I was just trying to give them a compliment. Sorry if it came off as condescending or anything. I didn't mean to.

If you don't understand what I just said, I'm sure Nyali will explain it to you in the doc.

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The knife fell, and Lyce Norvo fell by Stick's hands. "We did it! We got them all!"

Rhea smiled. "Indeed we did. The invitation didn't lie - there were certainly surprises around ever corner."

John nodded. "Yeah. Secrets were certainly found. Like that wine cellar that Borris found. I didn't know that the manor had a winecellar. Did you Rhea?"

"Nope, that was a surprise to me. And there's certainly riches. Look at all that stuff that Lyce had. All that gold to share between the two of us."

"Um... two of us?" Stick had a confused look on their face. "Last I counted, there were three of us here..."

John looked at Stick. "I only count two people who'll be walking out of here alive." He pointed at himself. "There's me." And then he pointed over Sticks shoulder. "And that nice lady with the knife."

Before Stick had the chance to react, Rhea jammed her knife into the base of Stick's skull. 



Kynedath was lynched. He was a Guest. He had 5864 gtold, 2 Long Daggers, a Bow, a Brass Pearl Ring, a Jeweled Amulet, a Grey Cowl, 7 Keys, 4 Lockpicks, a copy of 'The Five Tenets', a copy of 'Guide to Skingrad', a copy of 'Macabre Manifest', a copy of 'Myth or Menace', a copy of 'The Red Book of Riddles', a copy of 'On Oblivion', a copy of 'Bible of the Deep Ones', a Mysterious Note, a Black Cowl, Pigskin Shoes, Doeskin Shoes, Chainmail Boots, Russet Felt Shoes, a Club, an Iron Battleaxe, an Iron Warhammer, a Silver Mace, 2 Daggers, a Mage's Staff of Silence, Stendarr's Toothpick (a Silver-capped Staff), 2 Staffs, a Leather Shield, a Silver Ring, a Grand Soul Gem, Wrist Irons, 3 Tongs, 14 Paintbrushes, 2 Bottles of Cheap Wine, 2 Bottles of Mead, all the cheese, 17 Dragon's Tongue Flowers, 5 Lavender Sprigs, 2 Nightshade Flowers, and 3 Fly Amanita Caps.
I am a Stick was killed. She was a Guest. She had 69 gold, a Staff of Flame, and Pigskin Shoes.

Vote Tally
Kynedath(3): Stick, JUQ, Nyali


 

And that's game. The Dark Brotherhood Assassins (Joe, Elenion, Nyali, and JUQ) have won. They forfeited their bonus reward by two of their number being found, but the surviors will still be paid the base amount as dictated by their contract.

I'll try and get the two missing writeups done as soon as I can, and hopefully some more detailed thoughts on this game (as well as last game). But in general, I was happier with how this game went. Particularly with Kas playing, we got some good analysis/discussion going in the early part of the game, even if not all of it was correct (but that's just how these things go). The initial activity was good, but it was a bit unfortunate that we lost 4 players to the inactive filter (apologies Elodin for killing you on your birthday...). I was also pretty happy with the item system that I tacked on at last minute. It was mostly there so Burnt could steal people's shoes, but other people engaged with it, which was nice. I was a bit sad no one tried exploring in general though - someone finding a Daedric shrine would have been a bit of un.

Anyway, I hope everyone enjoyed themselves, and I'd love to hear people's thoughts on how the game went, and things like the filter and the item system. Did people find the filter got them to post more?

Links:
Dark Brotherhood Doc
Dead Doc
Spectator Doc

 

Edited by Haelbarde
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49 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

I told you.

You get the ultimate "I told you so." Congrats on working it out.

Great game, Hael. I do think that it was biased slightly in favor of the elims, because elims are rarely inactive (and Elenion, Joe, Nyali, and myself are not people who are known to go inactive) which meant the inactivity filter worked in favor of us. I do think I should have died due to the inactivity filter, which is probably the first time I've been on that particular side of the "Die!" argument.

The fact that there are no roles also helped the elims, because there was no incentive for the elims to post in thread and so forth, apart from poke votes. I do see the point in promoting analysis rather than role madness, but the lack of roles made it elim biased.

Everyone who played in this game now has the honor of playing in the first game that Elbereth hasn't since she started.

This is going to be my last post on the Shard before my hiatus. I'll show myself out. See you all in February!

Edited by JUQ
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From the Spec Doc

Quote

Ha! “JUQ, I know i said earlier to put your money where your mouth was, but I hope now you've seen that I'm on your team.” Nice, Joe. Clever.

I'm kind of disappointed that no one with fore knowledge of my alignment saw that.

Other that that, I loved this game! I was initially disappointed that i was an eliminator, since I seem to be one too often, but It was a great team we i was on. Props to Mage and Sart, who I respect killed, and to Kas and Rae, who had good analysis. Apologies To lopen, I didn't know you had died T1 last game.

Also, always remember, if the victim was defenestrated, I was the killer.

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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Wat. Haha wow. Why did the elims help kill their own teammates...twice. That's just weird. But congratulations on winning :D

Well Kynedath, I still wouldn't have believed you. I was just so convincing:-P

Good game , all. We were faring well enough before all the inactives started dying :/ But well, it was fun. Thanks for running the game, Hael. :]

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Thanks for running the game Hael! I wasn't able to participate in the thread for very long, but I still had some fun trying to work things out in the dead doc. Congrats to the elims(no hard feelings for that C1 kill), and good job Nyali and JUQ for surviving.

I also thought the item system added some extra fun as well. I was looking forward to my bottle of win from Len...instead, I got a knife in the back. :P

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