Mid-Range Game 18: Patji's Cauldron

[Nyali]

I just tried to go look at Wonko's posts to analyse them, and I can't find a user named "Wonko the Sane" so I'm assuming he's participating in this post-obfuscating Ookla thing. What name is he posting under? And when does this extremely frustrating "Ookla season" end?

[Stick.]

20 hours ago, Ookla the Obsessed said:

Oh, and Stick's votes on me for the past two cycles... Stick, are you still going to vote on me?   

It was fun at first, but voting on you isn't making any kinda difference to the game at all  Mage, as promised.

Can we get a vote count?

Jondesu(3): Nyali, Mage, Aman 

Wonko(1): Jondesu

Mage(2): Doc, Stick

Doc(1): Ecth

This is probably wrong 

 

[Nyali]

Okay, I looked back and crossreferenced the name of the character Wonko signed up with and his signup post. I went through all his posts, and honestly, I'm not seeing anything super suspicious. He seems to have been in the same state I was, barely able to give much attention to the game due to the holidays.

Also, voting patterns support him being innocent, especially if we're right and Jondesu is a traitor. Why would Jondesu and Stink both use him to try to push the vote away from Stink? They could have used Dani or Assassin, but they went for Wonko instead. Unless I'm misinterpreting the vote order, trying to save one teammate by trying to start a train on another teammate seems unlikely. It could have been a gambit to make us trust Wonko more (which implicates Mage if true), but I don't think that's what's going on here.

[Jondesu]

You know, I'd missed that Mage did exactly what I said I'd watch for. That's incredibly suspicious, and while I wouldn't expect him to make a mistake like that normally, I don't think it was innocent either.

So.

Wonko Mage 

Edit: plus, I want to live! Voting for Mage certainly seems to give me the best chance, and I trust myself more than most other people in this game.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Jondesu

[Magestar]

10 hours ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

So, now that I am reading more closely on your posts, I see that you yourself had no actual suspicion of Wonko, and was more acting on Aman's analysis. Which I find pretty suspicious. But not enough on it's own, perhaps. What made me slightly uneasy was what happened after.

I had stated previously why I wanted to lynch Wonko.  He still had (has?) not defended himself.  As for what happened after...

10 hours ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

So...this. This feels wrong to me. Mage seems to be removing his vote from Wonko, after Jondesu pointed out that he would be suspicious if Wonko turned out to be a villager. Am I reading too much into this? Perhaps. Look below. 

A better way to look at this is that I put my vote on STINK after I realized that I had defended him previously, and that I was worried that constantly defending the same person, without a large amount of rationale was dangerous.  I did largely put my vote on STINK because I didn't want to be responsible for lynching another villager, plus, I honestly was unsure about Wonko.  I removed my vote on Wonko because I couldn't keep it and vote for STINK.  

10 hours ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

And again, if Mage wants to say that he made the lynch, I can't help but wonder if, as you said above, the worst that could happen was a tie, and you wanted that tie. If that's true, well, then perhaps my suspicions of Wonko were wrong. This combined with the fact that you were the first to vote on Wonko...well, more on this below.

Lol.  If I wanted a tie, all I had to do was take my vote off of Wonko.  If STINK was my teamate, I didn't even have to do that.  Even with Nyali, if STINK was on my team, I could have left my vote on Wonko and we could have won the lynch just like that.  Except STINK was not on my team.

10 hours ago, Ookla the Watcher said:

And what tipped me over was Mage removing his vote on Jondesu this cycle. After Aman said something about if Jondesu was an eliminator, then Mage and Nyali were cleared because he didn't think they would be bussing another ally. Now this is interesting, because why would Mage remove his vote then? Was he afraid, possibly, that Jondesu would be a villager, and him participating in the vote would only incriminate him more? Once is weird. Twice sets off alarm bells. 

Umm, yes.  If Jondesu ends up being a villager, than I'll have gunned for him all this time for nothing.  So that's definitely a part of it.  Another thing is, I didn't want to be put in places by my voting patterns so early in the cycle.  I wanted to be end-neutral for the moment, because I'm unsure as to what to do next.  Although you've helped me a bit with deciding that.

So, now that we've looked at me, let's look at you, Doc.  

First Cycle.  You made a few posts, some of which were oddly worded.  Wonko told you that you were doing the same things that made him suspicious of you in QF19.  I decided you were one of my suspicions.  You also voted on Elbereth, a villager, who was lynched that cycle.  You back up your vote, sort of, but it feels like a bandwagon.  You even say that a lot of votes have little rationale, but you still place your vote on El even though she'll already be lynched.

Second Cycle.  You remain pretty quiet except for instantly voting on JUQ, another villager.  You back up your vote to some extent, but I still feel like it's a little odd.  Similarly to last cycle, JUQ turns out to be a villager.  I don't think you post again.

Third cycle.  You vote for Wonko, and not for STINK, who is now proven to be an Elim.  You, in fact, by adding your vote to mine, made Wonko a viable counter-lynch.  

This makes me heavily suspicious of you, especially after looking back at Wonko, who I no longer think is suspicious.  I think, especially looking at the kill-pattern of the Elims, that you are almost definitely one of them.  Doc.  

This post was written several hours ago, but never went through.    Read it from the perspective of being written before Ecths last post.

---

Continuing.

Jondesu, I'm still suspicious of you, don't worry.  You're vote on me only makes me more suspicious of you, especially considering all that's happened this game.  If the Doc lynch seems to be failing in favor of a lynch on you, I'll go back that way.  

3 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

It was fun at first, but voting on you isn't making any kinda difference to the game at all  Mage, as promised.

Wait, why are you voting on me again?  I can see Jondesu, I can even see Doc, seeing as he's probably an Elim, but I don't know why you're voting for me?

@Nyali, would you support a Doc lynch?

@Amanuensis, same question.

[Nyali]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Indubitable said:

 

@Nyali, would you support a Doc lynch?

No, Doc is below you in my suspicion list.

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Indubitable said:

Wait, why are you voting on me again?  I can see Jondesu, I can even see Doc, seeing as he's probably an Elim, but I don't know why you're voting for me?

 

Hm. I'm pretty sure I said something about that last cycle. Let me search for it...

Edit: Found it

Quote

Me last cycle at some point:

Stink's reply to Aman's post kinda looks...a bit overreacted? Idk if he's always like this though :-P And Mage seems to be defending Stink, and then going all like 'I'm still up for the lynch tho' since the past cycles, or so I've noticed. So if Stink really does turn out to be an elim, I'll know who to vote for in C4  But for now, Daniyah. Might change it if I find a reason to.

Also, I find it odd that no one has laid suspicion on Doc yet. As Aman pointed out, he did have a hand in both the previous lynches. He hasn't done anything very villager-y either. So my current suspicion list includes: Daniyah, Mage and Doc (and possibly Stink)

Oh, and all these sudden votes on Wonko seem weird if nothing else

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by I_am_a_Stick

[Amanuensis]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Indubitable said:

@Amanuensis, same question.

I'm at work now, so I can't do as much research / answer as thoroughly as I would otherwise. But no. I would not support a Doc lynch.

The fact remains that Jondesu is towards the top, if not balancing on the very tip, of my List of Suspicious Persons™, with you hanging by a thread just a few inches below. While I may agree with some of your points about Doc, I think their less likely than what I believe happened with Jond. The thing with Jond is, yes, he's done some shady things, but you've been gunning for him since even before the significant ones surfaced, and now that the consensus of your alignment suddenly hinges on whether or not he is evil, you're starting to act a bit panicked, in my opinion. But if you're evil and he's village, why would you panic about that? You'd want us to lynch him so that your team gets a little closer to their goal before you're removed. So now I'm wondering if you're both teammates, and that you were gunning for him from the start to distance yourself from him, a strategy you saw me do in MR10 with Kynedath during a recent reread, except for you it appears to be backfiring. With the information I have now, I think this scenario is a tad bit more likely. Yes, Doc was involved in every mislynch so far and didn't vote for STINK, but from what I can recall (I'll have to double check this later) all of his votes were early on in the turn and he never tried to manipulate the lynch or redirect it. It's that effort that suggests some level of extra information and coordination, which in a vanilla game like this, is what I believe will lead us to the elims.

So again, no. I'm not going to retract my vote from Jond, especially now. With what information I have and the analyses I've conducted, it's most likely that one of you are an elim, and until this last post of yours, I thought lynching one would prove the other innocent (or perhaps not). Now that it's possible I could catch two of you at once, I definitely won't back down. The main point in your favor over Jond is that if you are an elim and went along with a bus STINK plan, then I'm certain you would have killed someone last night. If I was in STINK's teammates shoes, I would have definitely made sure someone died in retaliation, as every missed kill is an extra turn the villagers get to find and kill them. Either way, my suspicions of Polking and Clanky have increased significantly, since they were both entirely absent the previous turn, which I think was a factor in the lack of a kill. While it could have been intentional in order to frame inactives, I find that less likely, as (I'm pretty sure, I'll have to ask El unless someone wants to do the research on this) that the lack of an elim kill is almost always due to a lack of coordination or inactivity.

[Clanky]

Okay so I've kinda caught up now. 

As of right nowI am more suspicious of Nyali then Mage or Jondesu. Mages vote sealed the lynch on STINK followed by Nyali just placing a vote when the lynch was already in place. Prior to that the focus on polking seems odd to me. The main reason seemed to be thinking that lopen was because one of Elb/polking was a traitor. I personally wouldn't try and draw any conclusions from early elim kills either way. Also the way that Nyalis suspicions of polking went from "Actually, add Polking to my suspicion list" to a post that said only "I still think it's Polking" both with votes to "Well, Stink was second on my suspicion list, but Polking is still on top" is odd. Polking didn't do too much in that time imo to go from added to suspicion list to number 1.

The justification for voting for stink late had to do with the statement earlier saying STINK was second on the suspicion list. When really all that could mean was that you posted that because STINK was garnering some suspicion and posting that might make you seem less suspicious. Placing someone on your suspicion list doesn't help to get anyone lynched or even really require them to react. Especially when no reason was given for why he's on the list.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Clanky
forgot to put jondesu in there at the beginning

[Amanuensis]

I wanted to see where things stood right now, so here's a vote tally.

(3) Magestar: Doctor12, I_am_a_STICK, Jondesu, 

(2) Jondesu: Nyali, Amanuensis,

(2) Doctor12: Ecthelion III, Magestar, 

(1) Nyali: Clanky, 

I had forgotten Jond voted for Mage, so that kinda puts a damper on my their-in-it-together theory. I suppose Jond's vote could have been an attempt at distancing them should one die, but that would have been a lot more effective had Mage not tried to deflect the lynch to a third party. Sooo yeah, more likely that the two are not on the same team, and more likely that Jond is the evil one between them.

Also, I agree that Nyali is suspicious, Clanky, but she was also present at the very end of the last turn, which is a large part of the reason why I'm less suspicious of Mage. I would expect that especially Nyali would put a kill order in.

Also, since I do think you're a little suspicious too (not for anything you said yet, just because of your absence and the lack of a kill), I do find it interesting that you're trying to create a lynch on a 4th party now. Makes me wonder if you're evil with one of those up with the lynch.

#paranoia #welcometoSE

Edited November 28, 2016 by Amanuensis
Hashtags

[Dani]

And I'm still confused whether to vote for Nyali or Wonko. What Aman said about Wonko not being an Elim could be true, but it could also be that since he's kinda inactive right now, the Elims decided to provide him as an alternative lynch so that if one of him and Stink got lynched, the other would definitely be cleared. Then again, this is highly unlikely. Paranoia getting out of hand. So I guess I'll just..Nyali.  If Nyali turns out to be innocent I'll be coming for Wonko next probably, if I don't find a better suspicion. 

[Nyali]

To be clear, my suspicion list:

1. Third of the Storm (Jondesu) is proud of his heritage
2. Sean (polkinghornbd) is up for a Get Rich Quick scheme
3. Sherlock (Magestar) can't understand why the planet is named "First from the Sun"
4. Doc (Doctor12) is criminally late to the party
5. Svetao (Daniyah) is eerily cheerful
6. Szeth-daughter-daughter-Neturo (Assassin in Burgundy) has a death wish
6. Rumberry (Ecthellion III) has a hand glued to their face
6. Dr. Bres Kalei (Wonko the sane) is abundantly proficient at doctoring papers
6. Stick (I_Am_A_Stick) is resentful of gingers
7. Clanky
8. Aman
9. Nyali (Nyali) will rest when she's dead

Everyone in 6th place, I don't have a read on. I don't think everyone at the top of my list is an elim, to be clear. I think only one of Doc and Mage is an elim, for instance, but I'm leaning more toward Mage despite him changing his vote last cycle.

EDIT: Is Clanky in this game? I don't see him on the player list.

EDIT2: Forgot about the replacements - put them in to the list above.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nyali

[Amanuensis]

#ughDani #yudodis

(3) Magestar: Doctor12, I_am_a_STICK, Jondesu, 

(2) Jondesu: Nyali, Amanuensis,

(2) Doctor12: Ecthelion III, Magestar, 

(2) Nyali: Clanky, Daniyah,

Like I said in my previous post, Nyali was paying attention to the game near turnover. Enough to place a vote on STINK. I personally think she's too smart to have let a kill go to waste in that scenario.

Also, Nyali, Clanky replaced Darkness Ascendant.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Nyali]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also, Nyali, Clanky replaced Darkness Ascendant.

Oh, sorry! I missed the replacements. Let me fix the above...

EDIT: Aman, you replaced Orlok, righit?

Edited November 28, 2016 by Nyali

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Nyali said:

Oh, sorry! I missed the replacements. Let me fix the above...

EDIT: Aman, you replaced Orlok, righit?

That's right.

[Nyali]

So, the reason for that list is that I wanted to get it out there in case I was lynched today so people can make of it what they will. I don't mind dying, though losing two villagers tonight could be really bad (assuming the elims are active tonight). We're down 4 so far out of what, 12? 13? And there are likely 3 or 4 elims left. Losing two more villagers tonight puts us at 10/11 vs 4/3, which is only a couple mislynches from losing.

And yes, if I was an elim, there would have been a kill last night. I'm not one to let that go to chance. I have only been an elim in a conversion game so far, so I can't point to past patterns. But that really isn't something I'd let slide. I've only missed submitting a single action in all of my time here, which was during the pokemon game.

[Dani]

 

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Like I said in my previous post, Nyali was paying attention to the game near turnover. Enough to place a vote on STINK. I personally think she's too smart to have let a kill go to waste in that scenario.

Aman, not helping with my confusion  I guess you're right, but maybe that was her plan . I have no problem going with Wonko though. Nyali, Wonko. 

Not like either of them are up for the lynch anyway >.>

Edited November 28, 2016 by Daniyah
Font got messed up. Edit 2- font is still messed up

[Clanky]

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also, I agree that Nyali is suspicious, Clanky, but she was also present at the very end of the last turn, which is a large part of the reason why I'm less suspicious of Mage. I would expect that especially Nyali would put a kill order in.

Also, since I do think you're a little suspicious too (not for anything you said yet, just because of your absence and the lack of a kill), I do find it interesting that you're trying to create a lynch on a 4th party now. Makes me wonder if you're evil with one of those up with the lynch.

#paranoia #welcometoSE

No problem it's too be expected and I'm actually glad that their's someone suspicious of me. I need something to help me to get in to this game more. Joining late as a pinch hitter just in time for ookla season and then immediately being afk for a couple days has really left me feeling out of it. 

I'm usually fine with multiple lynch options. Leads to more chaos and less chance for elims to control it as well as limiting bandwagons. I'm also not so sure that the reason for no elim kill was inactivity. I've seen it happen with active teams just because of confusion, forgetfulness, or even someone who was supposed to put in the order getting rollover time wrong. 

I also should be around for the last few hours of this cycle giving me time to change my vote near the end if I feel the need. 

Edited November 28, 2016 by Clanky
spelling errors

[Magestar]

A quick note;  Regarding why the Elim kill did not go through, I have been assuming that it was because of, and thus prompted, this;

On 11/26/2016 at 10:43 PM, Haelbarde said:

I will not accept any votes or kill orders that don't follow these rules.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Ookla the Indubitable
Re-Blued Hael's text

[Jondesu]

Aman, why do you think I'm the more suspicious of Mage and I? I would think that all this time of him gunning for me while I've been trying my best to help us find the Elims would have been fairly obvious. Heck, I'm not even 100% sure he's Elim, though I've been suspecting it for a while, but my vote on him is an "I'd rather not die" vote. If someone can offer more convincing evidence or get the pressure off me, I'll move my vote back to Wonko or into Nyali, who I'm more suspicious of, but right now I'm just trying to survive so I can keep playing.

[Magestar]

4 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Aman, why do you think I'm the more suspicious of Mage and I? I would think that all this time of him gunning for me while I've been trying my best to help us find the Elims would have been fairly obvious. Heck, I'm not even 100% sure he's Elim, though I've been suspecting it for a while, but my vote on him is an "I'd rather not die" vote. If someone can offer more convincing evidence or get the pressure off me, I'll move my vote back to Wonko or into Nyali, who I'm more suspicious of, but right now I'm just trying to survive so I can keep playing.

I'm not sure that Aman think's you're more suspicious, but that you'll give him more information.

Also, I'd like to note that it's a really bad idea to gun for someone as an Elim, which is one of the reasons I'm not so suspicious of you anymore.  I don't think that you'd vote for JUQ like you did if you were one.  I know I wouldn't.  

[Amanuensis]

20 minutes ago, Ookla the Indubitable said:

A quick note;  Regarding why the Elim kill did not go through, I have been assuming that it was because of, and thus prompted, this;

Quote

I will not accept any votes or kill orders that don't follow these rules

 

Huh. I hadn't thought of that. Ecthelion is pretty obviously still him, despite the name change, so I don't know if it applies to him. The other two Ooklas are yourself and Doc, I think. Am I right on that? So between the two, I think Doc would have been more likely to have been the target, since I had said I would be extremely suspicious of you if STINK died.

17 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Aman, why do you think I'm the more suspicious of Mage and I? I would think that all this time of him gunning for me while I've been trying my best to help us find the Elims would have been fairly obvious. Heck, I'm not even 100% sure he's Elim, though I've been suspecting it for a while, but my vote on him is an "I'd rather not die" vote. If someone can offer more convincing evidence or get the pressure off me, I'll move my vote back to Wonko or into Nyali, who I'm more suspicious of, but right now I'm just trying to survive so I can keep playing.

There's two big reasons why I rank you more suspicious than him. The lesser of the two is because of the logic I applied to Nyali can be used on him somewhat as well, though I do now have to consider what Mage just brought up involving Ooklas effecting orders. Secondly, there's the fact that if he did not move his vote from Wonko to STINK, STINK might not have died, and we may have spent another turn trying to get rid of him. While it's possible STINK requested that Mage just bus him for trust, I think this is less likely than the alternative. The fact of the matter is, unlike your statements about not thinking STINK is evil and voting on Wonko instead of him, Mage was a big part of the reason STINK died. So basically I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, like I said I was doing in my very first post this turn.

 

For your benefit, Jond, here's a list of reasons why I think you're suspicious, based off of my first post this game, which basically contained all of my thoughts on the game up until that point.

1. I got the impression that you were overly defensive while being confronted by El on Day 1
2. Lopen, who died at the end of the turn, said very little, although one thing he said was that he had a paranoid theory about you being evil with El, as unlikely as it was. I suspect the reason why he was killed by the elims was because something he said was a bit too close to the truth, so you decided to get rid of him before he could focus on you more.
3. When El began accumulating votes, you disagreed it was a bandwagon and also said you weren't very suspicious of her. I think you did this because a teammate of yours (STINK) had already expressed suspicions of El, and so you decided to take the opposite stance to prevent parallels from being drawn between you two.
4. When Mage asked what STINK's thoughts were on you, Jond, he didn't answer the question and made comments like “my suspicions turned out wrong” and “I haven’t really had time to look at anyone’s posts in detail” yet. I believe he said this because he wanted an excuse not to have to comment on his teammate

And then there's the recent evidence from the previous cycle, as well as Mage's potentially redeemable actions. So yeah. That about covers it.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Magestar]

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Huh. I hadn't thought of that. Ecthelion is pretty obviously still him, despite the name change, so I don't know if it applies to him. The other two Ooklas are yourself and Doc, I think. Am I right on that? So between the two, I think Doc would have been more likely to have been the target, since I had said I would be extremely suspicious of you if STINK died.

I was more thinking that the person who had sent the order was an Ookla.  Such as STINK, or Doc.  There are other possibilities as well, of course, but that was what I was thinking.

I also realized that I also took that quote out of context.  So I'm quoting the rest of the rules for clarification.   Sorry.

On 11/26/2016 at 10:43 PM, Haelbarde said:

If you participate in Ookla season, please sign your posts with the username you signed up under. This is particularly important if you are placing, changing, or removing votes, as I will ignore any posts that aren't signed.

[Jondesu]

Eh, not sure what I can say about that, since it all seems like feelings based on me doing...the opposite of what I'd do as an Elim. I haven't been working with STINK as a teammate or even just unsuspectingly via PMs, and I wasn't trying to distance myself either. I wasn't suspicious of Elbereth, and guess what? She was clean. If I'd been working with STINK, I didn't have to say any of that, and no one would have connected us at all.

Edit: Mage (if I'm remembering correctly that you're Ookla the Indisputable, and please please please sign your posts so we can keep track), you pointing out that possibility actually makes me more suspicious, because it's a tactic I saw used in MR17. If an Elim brings up something that could in theory help the villagers, they seem clean, but if it's something someone else would have figure out soon enough anyways, it makes me think that person who brought it was just trying to buy goodwill.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Jondesu

[Magestar]

2 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

I wasn't suspicious of Elbereth, and guess what? She was clean.

Just saying, this does not clear you at all.  You could have been an Elim and known that El was clean, and not voted on her to seem more villager-y.  I'm seriously considering moving my vote back onto you.