Quick Fix Game 19: Noble Intentions

[Ecthelion III]

Hey Bugsy

[TheMightyLopen]

15 minutes ago, Bugsy6912 said:

Votes with intent to lynch are necessary for discussion early in the game. If we're suspicious of the people who let the vote piles reach the minimum requirement, it'll be that much more difficult to get the information we need. Plus, I'm more suspicious of him than I usually am of anyone this early in a game, so I'm happy to have him be the target we lynch for info. It will let us possibly catch an elim, too, rather than just killing indiscriminately to get info for analyzing

Fair enough.

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Some stuff happened, resulting in me having a moment to read over stuff and post (imagine this all in blue text, this phone I'm using is horrible).

Thank you Lopen for pointing out what I was about to already. Of course volunteering to get killed is going to discourage elims from attacking me. That's exactly why I asked. If they did then it would save someone more useful and if they didn't then it might set something up like this.

I am going to vote arraenae. I honestly would be okay with lynching both Orlok and her today because it saves us time. Either way one of them is likely evil. I doubt not a single elim got involved given the scenario (not including doc who could very well have been off).

IMO, Lopen and I are about as clear as it gets. Me because Doc tried to drag me down with him and Lopen for preventing it. Wonko might also be soft cleared too for no intervening, though I wouldn't go that far.

I'll post more when I'm sober

Lynching 2 people at once...on purpose?! That actually sounds pretty fun. 

And yeah, I pretty much consider myself the most likely player to be village at this point. I'm about 95% sure. Aman seems likely as well. Wonko, probably, but I could see him being an elim that saw Doc was getting a lot of suspicion in the thread and so he voted on him ahead of others to get credit and then he could have orchestrated Jondesu's PM with me, him, and Jondesu to make himself look good. Nyali, I think is probably village. Daniyah and Stick are ones I have good gut reads on.

9 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Suddenly, the credibility of Aman's previous words sharply decreased... 

I wouldn't go quite that far. We've seen players "as clear as it gets" before, but that is never guaranteed, like Lopen in the last MR. Still, all three of you have made your way a good distance onto the village side of my gut-read scale.

Hehe, well, in that game, it was known that there was a way for players to change allegiances, so I really probably shouldn't have had as much trust as I did.  Now, everyone should trust me completely and never vote on me again.

[Elenion]

1 minute ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Lynching 2 people at once...on purpose?! That actually sounds pretty fun. 

That's be a juicy target for a last-second vote change, though. All a player would have to do is vote on themself, then either cancel or change (whichever would wreck the lynch more) at the last second. Have a teammate Smoke them to keep Soothers from doing their thing, and you have a recipe for a rigged lynch.

4 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

And yeah, I pretty much consider myself the most likely player to be village at this point. I'm about 95% sure.

Unless there was some ambiguity in your GM PM, shouldn't that number be 100%? 

[Arrae]

20 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

You seemed to jump on Jondesu really fast Bugsy.

Well, you're right that that is a bandwagon vote. I understand the evidence against Jondesu, but he hasn't even argued his innocence yet. I'm still a little suspicious of Jondesu myself, but the fact that he's accumulated so many votes so fast is concerning to me.

I'm gonna put a vote on Orlok for starting the Aman lynch. Aman was a easy target to get votes on, since he said he was fine with dying. So with Doc in trouble, I think it'd make a lot of sense for you to vote on Aman like that if you were an elim. There's also the fact that you didn't even mention Doctor in your post regarding the lynch. Doc was leading the votes 3 to the rest of the pack's 1. That will usually prompt some sort of opinion from players that close to the end of a Cycle.

I'm also looking at Arraenae for similar reasoning. She voted on Aman and didn't give an opinion on Doc. I'm not saying it's mandatory to give an opinion on every lynch target, but if you're going to try to get someone lynched over another player, I'd expect more reasoning for why your target is a better candidate for the lynch.

Yeah, sorry about that. Unfortunately, I only had time to post during the middle of Chemistry, so I had to type that out while doing other stuff. Normally, I'd have been able to post more afterschool, but this week my dad didn't give me his phone despite it being Football Friday. Kind of difficult to play SE without a device that can access internet.

So, why I voted on Aman in more detail:

1. If Aman is truly going inactive, no tricks, he could have done better things than asking for the elims to kill him. In what world do eliminators follow the whims of villagers just because the villagers ask nicely? He could have asked Joe for a pinch-hitter. An active player is always better than an inactive one. He also could have just gone inactive and wait for the eliminators to kill him. A dead inactive player is always better than a dead active player. Plus, if Aman wants to die so much that he's asking the eliminators to kill him, then lynching him will get him the death he so desperately wants.

2. If Aman was secretly going to stay active, and the point of asking was to make the eliminators not target him, the eliminators would kill him the moment he started making wall-of-text posts. If he was going to be inactive in thread and communicate entirely in PMs, he might still be PMing an eliminator. His analysis would also be less useful because there would be less exposure, and the eliminators would know he was still active if someone came out and said "Aman's been PMing me, here's what he says".

3. I was worried that Aman could be an eliminator saying that. After all, what sane eliminator would ask their eliminator buddies to kill them? Aman has only ever survived as an eliminator. If he's alive near the end, he's guaranteed evil. But if he asked for death, then he has the excuse that the eliminators must have suspected a trick and decided not to kill him.

3. I really liked Orlok's reasoning. Maybe it wouldn't have swayed me so much if I'd had fifteen minutes to look at it instead of three, but it sounded good at the time. 

[Amanuensis]

Yeah my money is on Rae between the two. Orlok is known for playing devils advocate so I might be able to accept that explanatuon , but 'I really liked Orlok's reasoning'. Call me biased but the reasoning was pretty nonsensical.

[Elenion]

Anyone else notice that Rae's caption is "Skaa Thug"? Just sayin...

[Jondesu]

Woah, I go away for a few hours and I've got votes piling up on me... I can't quote and respond individually, but let me address some of this.

Yes, I PM Wonko and Lopen and asked them to help end the tie. I'd worked with them in my first game so I was more comfortable reaching out to them. I was pushing Aman because I honestly didn't think Doc was Elim, but I was wrong about that obviously.

I do agree that Aman wasn't a high priority target; my point was that he'd have had no reason to expect them to take him out, yet he was talking as though it was all but guaranteed. For him not to be killed just made me suspect it was a gambit to make him seem innocent. It's something I might have tried myself, though it does seem clumsier now as I look back at it. I still am not done thinking about Aman, but perhaps my gut was working quicker than my mind.

[Arrae]

@Elenion, that's because Richelle really likes cutting up dead Nobles.  Also she may or may not have a bit of unknown Noble blood that allows her to burn pewter to help her kill people...

About 5 hours ago, Doc PMed me and said something like this:

El is either an eliminator or a ruthless villager. If she is, Lopen is one too. I'm scared of Elim!El. I'm probably telling another villager this.

@Amanuensis, this is what Orlok posted:

Quote

Firstly, Lopen - I can see no benefit in keeping my vote on you.

Secondly, Aman. I absolutely understand that you're busy with personal life, and won't be as active - so want to be clear that I'm not voting for you based on lower activity.

However, your assertion that you're going to be killed tonight, and indeed asking for death seems to me to be rather suspicious - it's a good way to get trust with the village - making you seem vulnerable, whilst being rather nonsensical from a general point of view - if you are a villager, it's rather counterproductive - telling eliminators really that they shouldn't bother killing you because they'll hit a more active target elsewhere.

I can't really analyze this in-depth now -- parents are watching my computer and this forum doesn't look enough like homework. Can you please tell me which parts are nonsensical?

[A Joe in the Bush]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

 

@A Joe in the Bush Is it a typo in the write-up that Alv is shown as having voted twice?

There are a lot of typo's, I'm going through and fixing everything right now. I was in a rush when I posted it. (Yes El, I'll fix your gender.)

51 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

He could have asked Joe for a pinch-hitter.

This is a Quick Fix. There will be no pinch hitting.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Gah!

Elbereth was killed by nobility. She was a Citizen Tineye! Not a Regular!

Edited November 5, 2016 by A Joe in the Bush

[Orlok Tsubodai]

3 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Gah!

Elbereth was Lynched! She was a Citizen Tineye! Not a Regular!

Lynched? Or killed by nobility?

 

OK, so I appear to have garnered a fair amount of suspicion, which I hope to address, but will be on throughout the day intermittently to respond.

The most salient point raised against me that I can see is that I didn't mention Doctor in my post. I did this very deliberately - I had no strong opinion on whether he was guilty or not, and didn't want to throw votes onto a lynch that he wouldn't be back to defend himself from.

My vote on Aman was to highlight the inconsistency of his actions, and I stand by my reasoning - if Aman is a villager, by announcing when he'll be inactive he forces fire onto other, more active players. Alternatively, he does intend to be active, and is lying about activity to give a greater degree of protection. Potentially better for the village strategically, but definitely not an action I'm comfortable supporting - and I would hope that this view is shared by most of our players.

To reiterate my earlier point, whilst counterproductive as a villager, Aman would stand to gain through the same actions as an eliminator - through appearing a target, arousing sympathy, through potentially drawing protection from lurchers, and dissuading coinshots.

Returning to last cycle, though, I hardly think I can be accused of orchestrating his near lynch - I didn't have an opinion on Doctor, so instead of going with my gut I attempted to start another discussion, which both draws valuable information from a number of players - myself included, and also makes my views clear in case I was killed last night.

When I placed my vote, I most certainly didn't anticipate others following, or it having a material impact on the lynch of Doctor - I just hoped that it would increase the value of the rest of the cycle, rather than it just becoming a bandwagon.

[Magestar]

Oke Doke.  Miss a day of posting and the thread is already 5 pages long.  I didn't have more than 5-10 mins to be on the shard yesterday due to RL reasons, so I decided it was best not to try and post.

Today, however, I would like to say that I'm not sure why we're lynching Jondesu.  Can someone explain that to me?  It looks like a massive bandwagon, which I'm not really a fan of.  Although I do like bands, and wagons, but not together.

6 hours ago, Arraenae said:

El is either an eliminator or a ruthless villager. If she is, Lopen is one too. I'm scared of Elim!El. I'm probably telling another villager this.

I also don't think it's unlikely that Doc told Jondesu as the other villager.  I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing any really good evidence against Jondsu.  However, the arguement between Aman and Orlok is interesting to me.WhiteTextWhiteTextWhiteText.

Actually, I'm having trouble deciding whether I trust Aman or Orlok more.  Both of you seem to be making good points, so I'll withhold judgement for now.  I will note that I'm leaning towards voting for Orlok, because I don't think that Doc would start a lynch on a fellow elim.  But then my brain says it might be a distancing tactic, since he knew he was going to die?  Whatever. Ooooooo Spooky!

Instead, I'll put a poke vote on Alvron, who I don't think has posted very much, and who's opinion I would like to hear.  The same is true of the other inactives, but I feel most like poking Alvron.  Poking the Dark Lord is fun.

Finally, I would like to make a note of Ecthelion's odd behavior.  I'm wondering how likely it is that Joe included a Jester role?  So far, Ecth has; Rapidly changed votes; Double Posted; and Posted Oddly.  This seems almost like he's trying to seem like an Elim, and at the very least it's getting on my nerves.  Fraying Nerves Nerves are Fraying like a fraying rope of Nerves.

The people who are currently giving me bad vibes are Orlok, Aman, Elenion, and maybe Ripple or Wonko.  These are all basically gut reads, and i intend to re-read the last cycle to try and get a better handle on things.  Everyone else is way too quiet, or is just not giving me a negative read.

All white text is just a joke.  I was bored.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Magestar

[RippleGylf]

8 hours ago, Arraenae said:

1. If Aman is truly going inactive, no tricks, he could have done better things than asking for the elims to kill him. In what world do eliminators follow the whims of villagers just because the villagers ask nicely? He could have asked Joe for a pinch-hitter. An active player is always better than an inactive one. He also could have just gone inactive and wait for the eliminators to kill him. A dead inactive player is always better than a dead active player. Plus, if Aman wants to die so much that he's asking the eliminators to kill him, then lynching him will get him the death he so desperately wants.

2. If Aman was secretly going to stay active, and the point of asking was to make the eliminators not target him, the eliminators would kill him the moment he started making wall-of-text posts. If he was going to be inactive in thread and communicate entirely in PMs, he might still be PMing an eliminator. His analysis would also be less useful because there would be less exposure, and the eliminators would know he was still active if someone came out and said "Aman's been PMing me, here's what he says".

3. I was worried that Aman could be an eliminator saying that. After all, what sane eliminator would ask their eliminator buddies to kill them? Aman has only ever survived as an eliminator. If he's alive near the end, he's guaranteed evil. But if he asked for death, then he has the excuse that the eliminators must have suspected a trick and decided not to kill him.

3. I really liked Orlok's reasoning. Maybe it wouldn't have swayed me so much if I'd had fifteen minutes to look at it instead of three, but it sounded good at the time. 

1. Seeing as the eliminators obviously didn't kill Aman at his request, this is one aspect I can sort of agree with. While just lynching him to follow his request may have been a good option, we were already having a lot of discussion without that, and the lynch seemed already decided. Pushing a lynch on a player likely to be inactive only would ensure that Doctor12 lived for another cycle.

2. As you bring up yourself, a 'secretly active' strategy just wouldn't work, so chances are that he is legitimately going inactive. It seems like a waste of a cycle to kill a player who will probably be killed anyways by inactivity.

3-1. It seems a bit odd that Aman would attempt such a strategy C1, with almost no suspicions focused on him. Obviously, it is advantageous for eliminators to fool people early, but this is just a confusing way of going about it.

3-2. I can see how an illogical post could seem logical if you're only skimming through it, but it still seems like weak reasoning.

Arraenae.

[Dani]

 @Darkness Ascendant has been unusually quiet, which, looking at previous games, is more suspicious than any suspicious thing he can say . And he's been active in other threads. 

 

14 hours ago, Ecthelion III said:

Hey Bugsy

What's this about? O.o Did no one see this? Almost makes me think seriously about that Jester role Mage mentioned. 

 

Jondesu:

Quote

I'm honestly having trouble following and keeping track of the changing votes. The logic about Aman is tracking the best with me, though, and while Ecthelion hasn't been cleared in my mind yet, I don't want this first vote to risk a tie, so I wanted to throw it further to someone who already has some votes as well. 

When you say you don't want this vote to risk a tie, you mean you don't want a tie, right? But isn't that vote on Aman that is creating the tie? @TheMightyLopen @Wonko the Sane Can one of you tell me how many hours ago it was when Jon asked you to move your votes to Aman? I have this confusion in mind that I'd like to have cleared. 

[Elenion]

I want to post something, but most of my ideas have been conveyed by other players. So, RP it is.

 

Arboreon cursed to himself as he read the news in the newspaper. A nobleman, dead. Not the one who had met with him the day before, but whom Arboreon could only assume was a fellow conspirator with his contact. Putting down the paper to the side of his mug, he addressed the only other man currently in the warehouse.

"I'm afraid that our friend lost one of his men last night." Arboreon said to Bargo, his partner. Bargo had been instrumental in the discovery of the compound that they sold, and he was better at manufacturing it than Arboreon. That was the only reason Bargo was still alive.

"Do you think it'll stop the deal?" Bargo said.

"I hope not. We've got too much riding on this one. But just in case, prepare for a double-cross."

"We're always prepared for a double-cross, Arboreon. That's the reason we're still alive."

Both grinned and reached for their drinks.

[Wonko the Sane]

25 minutes ago, Daniyah said:

 @Darkness Ascendant

Jondesu:

When you say you don't want this vote to risk a tie, you mean you don't want a tie, right? But isn't that vote on Aman that is creating the tie? @TheMightyLopen @Wonko the Sane Can one of you tell me how many hours ago it was when Jon asked you to move your votes to Aman? I have this confusion in mind that I'd like to have cleared. 

Ignore Darkness's mention. I can't delete it on mobile.

He sent it 19 hours ago, just minutes after he created the tie, and less than an hour before rollover. Yes, that is why I am voting on him, and after looking over the posts last cycle, my vote holds firm.

Note that he did not ask us to switch our votes to Aman -- he simply asked us to break the tie, as though it were some unforeseen circumstance, and not a fait accompli he was presenting us with.

There is no question that he was making a desperate attempt to pull Doc out of the fire. It is possible, I suppose, that he "just didn't think Doc was an Elim". I would be far more inclined to believe that if he had approached the issue directly and rationally, instead of with deception and manipulation.

Anyone who has played with me for some time knows I don't react well when villagers deceive other villagers. If you genuinely are a Villager, I'm sorry, but I won't regret this decision.

[Ecthelion III]

I think Rae and Jondesu are both prime suspects; I'd be fine lynching either one of them.

I don't know what to think about Bugsy. We'll see after we find out who Jondesu was (if we lynch him).

[Dani]

39 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

He sent it 19 hours ago, just minutes after he created the tie, and less than an hour before rollover. Yes, that is why I am voting on him, and after looking over the posts last cycle, my vote holds firm.

Note that he did not ask us to switch our votes to Aman -- he simply asked us to break the tie, as though it were some unforeseen circumstance, and not a fait accompli he was presenting us with.

There is no question that he was making a desperate attempt to pull Doc out of the fire. It is possible, I suppose, that he "just didn't think Doc was an Elim". I would be far more inclined to believe that if he had approached the issue directly and rationally, instead of with deception and manipulation.

I see. If he really was concerned about lynching Village!Doc it would have been better if he had defended him in-thread, where everyone could see. And seeing as it was just minutes before the rollover, if he had succeeded in convincing Wonko or Lopen to move their vote, it seems unlikely that anyone would have come on in time to set the lynch back on Doc, thus saving him. 

Well, I guess Jondesu then.

*fingers crossed*

 

Edit- Ignore the variation in the font size. I copy-pasted the red text from another post as I'm on mobile, and that somehow messed up the size. 

Edit 2- fixed.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Daniyah
Font size is messed up

[Arrae]

Maybe it's just me, but I still don't see why Orlok's original post about Aman was illogical. Can someone, anyone, please explain it to me?

Jondesu for what Wonko said. That sounds pretty suspicious.

I won't be on again until an hour after rollover, so if you want to address something at me please PM it or mention me.

[Alvron]

8 hours ago, Magestar said:

Instead, I'll put a poke vote on Alvron, who I don't think has posted very much, and who's opinion I would like to hear.

You would like to hear my opinion on what?  Weather?  Sport?  Anything not Politics related. It's nice to be wanted but if you can't provide a subject then you won't get much out of me.    Now if you want my opinion on who should be lynched then I think Jondesu.  I was suspicious of him and Dankness C1 and it only grew after the lynch results and Lopen/Wonko PM reveal but there are already plenty of votes on him and have been from the start of the cycle so as long as he's being lynched, I feel no reason to vote for him or to express my opinion.

Vote Tally:
Jondesu (6): Nyali, Bugsy, Len, Wonko, Dani, Rae
Rae (3): Aman, Ripple, Ec3
Aman (1): Jondesu
Orlok (1): Lopen
Alv (1): Magestar

[Arrae]

10 minutes ago, Alvron said:

You would like to hear my opinion on what?  Weather?  Sport?  Anything not Politics related. It's nice to be wanted but if you can't provide a subject then you won't get much out of me.    Now if you want my opinion on who should be lynched then I think Jondesu.  I was suspicious of him and Dankness C1 and it only grew after the lynch results and Lopen/Wonko PM reveal but there are already plenty of votes on him and have been from the start of the cycle so as long as he's being lynched, I feel no reason to vote for him or to express my opinion.

Vote Tally:
Jondesu (6): Nyali, Bugsy, Len, Wonko, Dani, Rae
Rae (3): Aman, Ripple, Ec3
Aman (1): Jondesu
Orlok (1): Lopen
Alv (1): Magestar

I thinke Mage and the rest of us want your opinion on the events of QF19, specifically on who you think should be lynched.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

19 minutes ago, Alvron said:

...so as long as he's being lynched, I feel no reason to vote for him or to express my opinion.

The issue here, Alv, is that we can't hold you to account if you don't commit to opinions - it's staying under the radar, which is hardly conducive to building up trust - and indeed doesn't inspire confidence in your desire to help the village.

[Alvron]

4 minutes ago, OrlokTsubodai said:

The issue here, Alv, is that we can't hold you to account if you don't commit to opinions - it's staying under the radar, which is hardly conducive to building up trust - and indeed doesn't inspire confidence in your desire to help the village.

I give my opinion when I feel it's necessary.  But if others have already said what I'm thinking then I feel there is no need for me to say anything.  If someone I'm suspicious of is being lynched and has enough votes for it to be a foregone conclusion, then I feel there is no need for me to vote.  This is simply who I am.

[Ecthelion III]

Alvron is Jester confirmed.

[Alvron]

Shhh.  You're not meant to reveal that.