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Oh dear. I very nearly forgot I was playing this game until it was too late. :P

Well, I'm here now.

I read village on Lopen, but then, I generally do. Something about him has a tendency to slip past my meager defenses -- and since I'm already way too trusting, that's saying something.

That said, I see no reason as of yet to believe he is an Eliminator. In every game I have worked with him before, rules analysis has formed a large part of our interactions. Like me, he has a knack for spotting tactics that exploit the rules to his advantage. I can't really fault him for trying to make use of it, especially when I would have done the same if he hadn't.

Ecth is behaving erratically, aggressively, and irrationally -- but for all that, I don't have much of an Elim read on him. I feel like he would have been able to recover better by now if he had allies to bounce posts off of. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now; too much more of this may change my mind, though.

Instead, I'm going to put my vote on Doc. I'm having trouble putting my finger on it, but something about his mannerisms just seems... off. As though he's forcing posts to seem active and helpful, but doesn't really have his heart in them.

This, for example, seems very artificial to me:

10 hours ago, Doctor12 said:

...and I just thought of something with possible bad implications. Without ties, this means that more than one person could be lynched each cycle! That's...very dangerous,don't you think? With four eliminators, they could possibly get two villagers lynched in a cycle. With more than that...well, you get the idea. 

We're going to have to be very careful and watch our votes. Very careful. 

It almost feels like it should be read with a knowing wink thrown in at the end. Also, Lopen made this exact same point -- with some of the same wording, even -- in that first post of his that started all this hullabaloo. So yeah, Doc is my strongest suspicion right now.

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My biggest suspicions are currently Ecthelion and Sart. Ecthelion seemed very eager to vote on the one person who had contributed actual stuff, who was also the only person with a vote on them. This seems a bit off to me. Sart, meanwhile, tried to defend him by saying no one had defended him yet, a slightly paradoxical situation. Sart has also said elims are prone to making sure their arguments are factually correct. I, personally, am of the opinion that eliminators are prone to bending the truth, and I'd say this situation applies. After all, Lopen was an elim that game, but only after the post Ect quoted. It seemd like Ect was using a convenient example to retroactively justify his claim, even though the claim wasn't strictly true. 

Wonko, you bring up a good point about Doc. I hadn't noticed that, but I'm somewhat predisposed to trusting him for some reason. Also, I believe his statement pertaining to a multi lynch is incorrect; only the person(s) who receive(s) the most votes die(s) each cycle, not everyone who receives 2. 2 is just the minimum threshold for a lynch to occur in the first place. 

Ex:

If the following vote total were to happen, only person 1 and person 2 would die

person 1: 4 

person 2: 4

person 3: 3

If the following vote total were to happen, no one would die

person 1: 1

person 2: 1

Edited by Bugsy6912
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@Doctor12, I would like to note that most games only require two votes to lynch somebody. This is not an unusual rule -- in fact, it's standard. A two vote minimum is no more panic-worthy than in almost every other game.

Plus, if a four-way tie ever occurred, we can take a nice long look at the people who participated in it.

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Yes Bugsy, Rae, I got that wrong. Joe clarified it for me earlier tonight. So. . . I feel a bit stupid about jumping to conclusions about that, heh. Perhaps it's because most of the games I've played , a tie means no lynch. I guess I was a bit confused and freaked when I thought that's different here ? 

And Wonko , I. . . Don't really know how to respond to that. Thank you for pointing that out, I think? I was forcing myself to be active, even when I didn't have much to say at that time.  I guess that showed.

I'm just. I want to be helpful . But I don't have much to say yet. 

Anyway, I'm going to bed now and won't be awake until after rollover. Gnight , ya'll. Hopefully I'd be able to contribute more next cycle . 

Edited by Doctor12
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6 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Right now, I see people voting for each other mostly by relying on their guts. Honestly, I'm not suspicious of anyone right now, though I'll put in a last minute vote because I like doing that :-P Also, it would be nice if we can manage to lynch off two or more elims this cycle. If anyone cares, I'm willing to role-claim in PMs if you role-claim back 

Um. And how exactly do you propose we do that? This is the cycle we want the least for there to  be a tie, because we have the least information. 

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Instead, I'm going to put my vote on Doc. I'm having trouble putting my finger on it, but something about his mannerisms just seems... off. As though he's forcing posts to seem active and helpful, but doesn't really have his heart in them.

This, for example, seems very artificial to me:

It almost feels like it should be read with a knowing wink thrown in at the end. Also, Lopen made this exact same point -- with some of the same wording, even -- in that first post of his that started all this hullabaloo. So yeah, Doc is my strongest suspicion right now.

I... may be willing to join you in that vote. I'll leave mine where it is for now until Doc responds to the PM I sent him (he's seen it an hour ago but not yet responded, which is part of why I'm suspicious), but I do think he's slowly becoming more suspicious than I consider Ecth to be. (Or he could ninja me in saying he's going to bed. Wonderful.) (And then he PMs me before I finish writing this.)

1 hour ago, Bugsy6912 said:

My biggest suspicions are currently Ecthelion and Sart. Ecthelion seemed very eager to vote on the one person who had contributed actual stuff, who was also the only person with a vote on them. This seems a bit off to me. Sart, meanwhile, tried to defend him by saying no one had defended him yet, a slightly paradoxical situation. Sart has also said elims are prone to making sure their arguments are factually correct. I, personally, am of the opinion that eliminators are prone to bending the truth, and I'd say this situation applies. After all, Lopen was an elim that game, but only after the post Ect quoted. It seemd like Ect was using a convenient example to retroactively justify his claim, even though the claim wasn't strictly true. 

Wonko, you bring up a good point about Doc. I hadn't noticed that, but I'm somewhat predisposed to trusting him for some reason. Also, I believe his statement pertaining to a multi lynch is incorrect; only the person(s) who receive(s) the most votes die(s) each cycle, not everyone who receives 2. 2 is just the minimum threshold for a lynch to occur in the first place. 

The argument that no one had defended him is a valid one, in my opinion, and it's been used before (LG22 comes to mind specifically). Doesn't mean it's always right, but it's a good point. 

Well... it's still true in some situations. The eliminators could lynch more than two villagers in a cycle, if we don't vote together enough and leave someone with two votes and multiple others with one. Vote manipulation will help with this, as it did in QF14, so they can't guarantee that they'll be able to tie the lynch, but... it's still a danger. 

I... hmm. Doctor. Ecthelion. Because the other thing that really makes me suspicious of you is that this game you're not paranoid of me. MR17, you were ridiculously paranoid. Far more than I deserve. This game? The only comment you've made about being wary of me in or out of PM is that I'm better at reading people. Which... seems like a way in which you'd view me as an eliminator, because that's how I'm dangerous to you in that situation. 

Sorry for doing this right before/after you go to bed. That's the only reason I hesitate to do this.  

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23 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

The argument that no one had defended him is a valid one, in my opinion, and it's been used before (LG22 comes to mind specifically). Doesn't mean it's always right, but it's a good point. 

I just found it ironic that Sart defended him, which based on his own argument, would implicate him. Also, it seems that in recent games, eliminators are more hesitant to defend their allies and instead sever ties or try to indirectly defend by redirection of the lynch.

Well... it's still true in some situations. The eliminators could lynch more than two villagers in a cycle, if we don't vote together enough and leave someone with two votes and multiple others with one. Vote manipulation will help with this, as it did in QF14, so they can't guarantee that they'll be able to tie the lynch, but... it's still a danger. 

He was saying they could lynch multiple without a tie. I was simply clarifying the tie was necessary, and not everyone with more than 2 votes dies 

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40 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Um. And how exactly do you propose we do that? This is the cycle we want the least for there to  be a tie, because we have the least information. 

I have no idea how XD... I just said it would be nice to have a number of elims killed this cycle :P Wouldn't it? If we had enough info, I would've placed my vote earlier :-P 

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One thing about lynches, there's no way to add votes to anyone without actually voting. Rioters can't move votes. So if there's one player with 2 votes and multiple with one, the elims would have to vote on those with 1 vote to get the lynch on them. Obviously, that's still a danger, but mostly later on when the elims will be closer to winning and won't care about revealing themselves.

Vote tally(ninja'd by Joe and then edited to include Aman's vote :P):

Ecthelion(2): Lopen, Nyali, Ripple
Lopen(1): Orlok
Elbereth(2): Ecthelion, Sart
Doctor(2): Wonko, Elbereth
Wonko(1): Lopen
Elenion(1): Aman

Now 3 people are up for the lynch. XD We've got 4 hours to decide who we want to lynch.

Aman, sad to see you go. :( Good luck with NaNo though.

I'm not sure I want to lynch Ecthelion. I'm not very suspicious of him. We got some pretty good discussion out of all of that though! So, I'll remove my vote. Ecthelion. I am still kinda suspicious of Doc, but Wonko's post kinda made me suspicious of him now, so I'm not sure. >>

Well, I'm going with my gut. Wonko. I feel like your post was sort of a summary of people's posts up to this point, rather than you giving a genuine opinion on things. The lynch on Ecth is losing steam and a couple players stated slight distrust for Doc, so you put the first vote on him to try and get ahead of the other voters. Maybe that's not the case, but it's what my gut's telling me.

Edited by TheMightyLopen
Added Aman's vote
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About to leave for a music festival so, given I should be killed by the Nobles today, I'll at least try to put my vote somewhere useful. Elenion. I'm relatively confident Ecth is skaa and don't have enough strong opinions on Lopen, El or Doctor (and now Wonko, yay ninjas) to cast my vote their way. Sorry for not being able to participate more, have a good rest of the turn ya'll.

Edit: Just realized I didn't even mention why I think Len is suspicious. Mostly gut, I guess. I find it peculiar how he's being passive about the lynch like his brother usually is but then criticizing Ecth for being lynch happy like he usually is. Also, other than joke votes, eliminators are almost never among the first players to try to get lynches started on the first day. Instead they wait and react to the village, and act wishy-washy because they're primary concern is keeping attention away from themselves so they can live long enough to overrun us, not direct the lynch when it's most likely going to end up on a villager at this point in the game anyway.

Edited by Amanuensis
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I really wanted to last minute vote on someone to make sure enough people die, I like it when people die...it's fun, betting on players and hoping they turn out elims XD, but unfortunately, I've got to go to sleep now so I guess no vote from me this cycle. I'm not particularly suspicious of anyone anyway :/ 

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2 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

I have no idea how XD... I just said it would be nice to have a number of elims killed this cycle :P Wouldn't it? If we had enough info, I would've placed my vote earlier :-P 

Well, sure, but we'll be lucky if we get one eliminator. More? Not going to happen. (Not unless we arranged a tie over like half the players in the game, which while an amusing thought is probably unwise. :P) People will die. Don't worry on that front. 

Lopen, you do realize you just made it so three people are now dying? :P That doesn't seem helpful. 

I'll try to get on and post (probably RP) once more before turnover, but that's about it. See you all on the other side, assuming I'm not lynched (which, if that is the case, I shall be rather annoyed that I died because Sart voted on me when he didn't even mean to, but... whatever). I am also considering changing my vote back to Ecth, because he'll likely be on before turnover whereas I never gave Doctor a chance to defend himself against my points. Depends on what the vote tally is like at that point. (EDIT: If I do change, my vote's going right on Doc next cycle, though.)

Edited by Elbereth
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1 minute ago, Elbereth said:

 (Not unless we arranged a tie over like half the players in the game, which while an amusing thought is probably unwise. :P)

I've already written that writeup. There's a reason I use that Mechanic in every game I run. I really, really, want to use this writeup.

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That's all very nice, but it doesn't really make strategic sense. :P We'd kill off half the players, yes, but the percentage of elims among them would probably be about the same (if we did it completely randomly) or even less (if we didn't and the eliminators manipulated who would get lynched). So... sorry to disappoint, but I don't see it happening. :P 

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Hmm. Ecthelion. I don't really have time to go full analysis mode (and it's way too early for that anyway), but the people I least trust right now are Doctor12 and Elbereth.

A few notes: Elbereth's vote added a vote to someone who already had one, putting them in second place at the time. This defended herself and Ecthelion. Doc!Elim means it's likely El is not because she had plenty of choices for that move. El!Elim means Ecth might be and they were going for a "vote for me early and then pivot the vote away" strategy, and Doc is likely not because why pick on him now? Doc!Village doesn't really tell me much but adds to my suspicion of El, and El!Village doesn't tell me anything.

I think I'm going for Doctor12. What's been said about his behavior this game seems valid to me from what I've seen so far, and I'm just more suspicious of him right now.

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There are an awful lot of people with one vote on them which is somewhat disconcerting.  Luckily Nyali moved her vote onto Doc, so it's now 3 to many 1s, but the possibility for multi-lynches was on the table.

Now, a lot of the reasoning going on at the moment seems a little wishy-washy, though that's likely because a lot of it is based on comparisons to previous games, an area at which I'm not too particularly versed.  The only notable thing I could really come up with was a certain irony of Ecth claiming that Lopen was trying too hard to be a villager, where to me it seemed much more like he was trying too hard to be a villager himself.  I would put my vote on him, but it looks like the lynch is moving towards Doctor and what I mentioned earlier is still a risk.

On a sidenote, I thought the cycles were 48 hours...

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Non posters:
Winter Devotion
Eolhondras
Nathanvanduij

Vote Tally:
Lopen (1): Orlok, Ec3
Ec3 (1): Lopen, Elbereth, Ripple, Nyali
Elbereth (1): Sart, Ec3
Doc (3): Wonko, Elbereth, Nyali
Wonko (1): Lopen
Len (1): Aman
Nyali (1): Sart
Dankness (1): Alv


Dankness Ascendant gets my vote.  Something feels very, very off about his and Jondesu's posts.  Sure they haven't played many games and I haven't played with either one at all but something about their posts just screams Elim to me.

Aman, what makes you think the Elims will kill you off just because you asked?  You said that you're going to be inactive due to RL commitments so leaving you alive and going after another player benefits the Elims more than killing you does.  Now, if you claimed an important role that the Elims wouldn't want to fall into another's hands should you go inactive for 48 hours, then it might be worth killing you.

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Firstly, Lopen - I can see no benefit in keeping my vote on you.

Secondly, Aman. I absolutely understand that you're busy with personal life, and won't be as active - so want to be clear that I'm not voting for you based on lower activity.

However, your assertion that you're going to be killed tonight, and indeed asking for death seems to me to be rather suspicious - it's a good way to get trust with the village - making you seem vulnerable, whilst being rather nonsensical from a general point of view - if you are a villager, it's rather counterproductive - telling eliminators really that they shouldn't bother killing you because they'll hit a more active target elsewhere.

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Silima didn’t cry, when she heard that her daughter had not been rescued. She hadn’t let herself hope enough for that. 

She simply looked at Quellion through the crowd, no expression in her eyes, and touched the silver circle-locket at her throat with one hand and the concealed dagger at her back with the other. 

Then she turned amidst the crowd, slipping through easily on account of her small size. She wasn’t needed, and it would not do for anyone to be around if her mask slipped and the hatred beneath was revealed. Only repeating a single word kept that mask in place. Ratha, Ratha, Ratha… 



There. Not much, but it’ll do for now. :P

I don’t know how I feel about Aman volunteering himself. It doesn’t seem inherently suspicious to me, personally. Do I think the eliminators will actually kill him? Likely not. They’d be paranoid that he’s arranged protection for himself or is himself a Thug, and thus leading them into a trap, in addition to the reasons already stated why it’d be unwise to kill him. Does that make him evil? Personally, I don’t think so; it seems to me like something he’d ask as a villager. Just not necessarily the best move.  

This'll probably be my last post of the cycle. I'm not changing my vote; while I'm a little uncomfortable with the fact that Doctor won't be on again to respond, I'm still okay with lynching him because he does seem rather more suspicious to me than Ecth at this point. 

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Aman. If you really are just a villager with too much on your plate to be active, lynching you won’t hurt the village. In fact, it’ll help you with NaNo. If, however, there is something else going on, lynching you will stop it.

Is this late? Yes. You try playing SE while doing Chem homework.

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Sigh. I wake up early before rollover, and I see myself about to be lynched. Fun. 

I'm especially annoyed by the fact that Elbereth herself admitted that I won't have a chance to defend myself, and kept a vote on me anyhow. Still don't. It's six am, and I don't think I can type up a clear, reasoned defense at this hour... I'm just. . . Annoyed I guess. 

Bah I hate early morning rollovers

I want to live. So I'm going to throw a vote at Aman , hoping you guys think lynching someone who's going to be inactive and asking to go is a better option than a guy who is still hoping to play and get a chance to calmly refute accusations.  

So. . . Yeah. I'm literally typing this in the dark right now on my bed. Wonder what this says about me. I'm. . . Probably going  back to bed. But yeah. Morning, guys. . . 

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1 hour ago, Alvron said:

Non posters:
Winter Devotion
Eolhondras
Nathanvanduij

Vote Tally:
Lopen (1): Orlok, Ec3
Ec3 (1): Lopen, Elbereth, Ripple, Nyali
Elbereth (1): Sart, Ec3
Doc (3): Wonko, Elbereth, Nyali
Wonko (1): Lopen
Len (1): Aman
Nyali (1): Sart
Dankness (1): Alv


Dankness Ascendant gets my vote.  Something feels very, very off about his and Jondesu's posts.  Sure they haven't played many games and I haven't played with either one at all but something about their posts just screams Elim to me.

Aman, what makes you think the Elims will kill you off just because you asked?  You said that you're going to be inactive due to RL commitments so leaving you alive and going after another player benefits the Elims more than killing you does.  Now, if you claimed an important role that the Elims wouldn't want to fall into another's hands should you go inactive for 48 hours, then it might be worth killing you.

I agree with you on Jondesu and maybe on DA. I hadn't really paid much attention to him until you just pointed him out. Which could be something in and of itself, since he's usually pretty talkative.

I don't really think Aman's an elim, but I don't really think the elims will kill him either. Maybe he could just not post or anything for the next 48 hours?

Edit: Ninja'd by Doc. I'll most likely switch my vote to Doc if nothing changes.

Edit2: Eh, might as well do it now. Wonko. Doctor.

Edited by TheMightyLopen
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