Quick Fix Game 19: Noble Intentions

[Ecthelion III]

Eh, I'd be fine lynching Lopen if he ended up being an executioner-style neutral.

[Doc12]

Woo, the game has started :D.

It's day one, and I'm not a proponent of D1 lynches, but seeing as there is no way to tie votes in this game, I'm preferring to keep my vote to myself for now.

Last game I was extremely trusted because I spotted a loophole in the mechanics of the game that allowed us to use our roles to soft clear villagers and steal Eliminator kills. This game has different mechanics, and so far I haven't got anything on them, so I'd have to gain trust the old fashioned way :P. I do find this stripped down version of a game fascinating!

Right...first thoughts. Day one, and already votes are being thrown about. So far, I don't think Lopen is suspicious. I'd have done the same thing myself, trying to figure out the roles and mechanics, if I'd been on earlier (7AM rollover. Bah). So while he could be an eliminator, posting a list of suggestions and role mechanics is not in itself a suspicious action.

But you know who I think is acting a touch out of character? Ecthelion. I've watched you play in previous games, and...you're not usually this lynch happy. (Hey, if you're going to bring up previous games on Lopen, I can do the same.) It's still not strong enough to justify a vote, but as others pointed out, your reasons... aren't very well formed, and you've been unusually aggressive, so to speak. So...yeah. 

But hey, it's better than going inactive!

Speaking of inactivity, I really hope no one goes inactive this game. Joe's clarification about inactive roles not necessarily being revealed is kinda worrying. Hopefully we can maintain this level of activity throughout the whole game!

[TheMightyLopen]

3 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Eh, I'd be fine lynching Lopen if he ended up being an executioner-style neutral.

Taking some posts of mine from one game doesn't really prove anything about my alignment in this game. I often post advice on roles and mechanics, regardless of whether I'm an elim, villager, or neutral.

@Jondesu, @Daniyah do you have any opinions/thoughts on the game now?

[Jondesu]

I'm leaning towards Lopen being clean, considering I worked with him in MR17 and saw how he operated then (when he wasn't entirely clean), but it's more of a gut read than a specific set of things he said. Ecthelion is coming across lynch-happy, which can be normal for some people and not for others, and I haven't played with them before.

Under the circumstances, I'll say I will simply check back in tomorrow morning after a (hopefully) good night's sleep and send some PMs, and see what I can figure out. Feel free to PM me, anyone, though of course I can't respond to more than 3.

[Elbereth]

1 hour ago, TheMightyLopen said:

On one hand, I'm glad you're defending me, but on the other hand, it's a little surprising you'd read me as village so strongly when I've barely said anything.

You've been evil or neutral for the past 7 games. In my opinion, you're acting considerably more casually and villagelike than recently. Does that mean I have a strong read on you? No. It's D1. I don't have a strong read on anyone. But you do seem considerably more village than Ecth, to me. 

33 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Eh, I'd be fine lynching Lopen if he ended up being an executioner-style neutral.

Sure. But that's not the point. You were pointing out those posts as if he were evil at that time, which he wasn't. And in my opinion, they're not that similar. He's giving game advice in both, yes, but... the tone is different. >> I know, that's not really clear, but they are rather different in my opinion. 

[Arrae]

The setup of Seekers and Smokers reminds me a bit of AG2. It makes sense for the eliminator team to have a Smoker to protect from scans, but Smokers also protect from vote manipulation. In AG2, the eliminators had ridiculous amounts of vote manipulation and the villagers had ridiculous numbers of Smokers to protect from it, and the villagers tried to kill all of the Smokers with the rationale that eventually they'd have to hit an eliminator smoker.

@A Joe in the Bush, are there any spikes in this game?

[A Joe in the Bush]

PAFO

[Nyali]

I don't have much to say, but wanted to post. Most of what I'd say has already been said. Ecthelion's posts make me suspicious of him, and I in particular feel like he was trying to start a train on Lopen using weak reasoning. This is only my second QF, so I'm not sure how things go when we have so much less time to talk about things, so I think I'll just vote my gut: Ecthelion.

If we're right, yay. If we're wrong, it gives us a lot of information based on how other people voted. In particular, if we're wrong, my (admittedly weak) suspicion goes toward El or Ripple.

[TheMightyLopen]

1 hour ago, Doctor12 said:

 

Speaking of inactivity, I really hope no one goes inactive this game. Joe's clarification about inactive roles not necessarily being revealed is kinda worrying. Hopefully we can maintain this level of activity throughout the whole game!

There's still a lot of people who haven't posted though. It might be a good idea for someone to ping those who have been on but haven't posted, if there's any players like that. Maybe even put a vote on them, if you don't want to put your vote anywhere else. Poke votes can actually be pretty powerful, especially Day 1 when lynches are often very random.

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

You've been evil or neutral for the past 7 games. In my opinion, you're acting considerably more casually and villagelike than recently. Does that mean I have a strong read on you? No. It's D1. I don't have a strong read on anyone. But you do seem considerably more village than Ecth, to me. 

Sure. But that's not the point. You were pointing out those posts as if he were evil at that time, which he wasn't. And in my opinion, they're not that similar. He's giving game advice in both, yes, but... the tone is different. >> I know, that's not really clear, but they are rather different in my opinion. 

I was hoping you'd elaborate a bit more so I could take some notes , but okay.

38 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

The setup of Seekers and Smokers reminds me a bit of AG2. It makes sense for the eliminator team to have a Smoker to protect from scans, but Smokers also protect from vote manipulation. In AG2, the eliminators had ridiculous amounts of vote manipulation and the villagers had ridiculous numbers of Smokers to protect from it, and the villagers tried to kill all of the Smokers with the rationale that eventually they'd have to hit an eliminator smoker.

@A Joe in the Bush, are there any spikes in this game?

I think Joe came up with a good solution for Smokers that wasn't in AG2. Since Seekers can only scan those who are Burning metals, that means it doesn't really matter if Smokers use their ability or not. Though like I said earlier, probably best if they only Smoke themselves at this point in the game, when it's less likely that vote manipulation will really make much difference and we need to get scans.

I'd like to note that there have been a lot of players defending me. It's making me nervous. I suspect at least one of them is an eliminator. Right now I'm looking at Doctor, Jondesu, and Elbereth.

[Sart]

Well, let's do a vote count:

Lopen (2): Orlok, Ecth
Ecth (4): Lopen, Elb, Ripple, Nyali

To play devil's advocate for a second, let's look at what Ecth has done. She voted for Lopen as soon as Lopen posted. She claimed that his role recommendations were suspicious. She tried to link it to Aman's playstyle, which isn't a very convincing argument. However, she did pull up quotes from when Lopen was evil. In that game Lopen was neutral, so the comparison isn't entirely sound. She's trying to say that advice for roles doesn't contribute much, and is suspicious. I think she's reading into this too much. I've seen villagers and eliminators post strategies that supposedly help the town. I don't think that indicates alignment either way. In addition, Lopen was doing the right thing by responding to Orlok's post vote with actual game advice. That's better than just saying, "Here!"

That being said, I don't think Ecth is an Eliminator for two main reasons. First, she made a mistake about the game. I'm not claiming that Eliminators are infallible, but I believe they wait longer to post, and double check that everything is correct. They don't want their manipulation thrown out on a technicality. They also take their time, in case their rashness makes it obvious that their logic is flawed. That's why I was surprised she called out Clanky. Second, no one has defended her. She's gotten four votes in a short span, which should have caused a reaction if she was on a team. However, I haven't seen a single post that isn't expressing some suspicion of her. That strikes me as odd. Elims are generally more active than Villagers, so not having a single defense is concerning. I especially didn't like Elbereth's argument. How is voting for someone that has a poke vote on him supposed to start a lynch train? I understand your vote is mostly for information gathering, but it seems like a stretch.

[Elenion]

55 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Ecthelion is coming across lynch-happy, which can be normal for some people and not for others, and I haven't played with them before.

There are a few users that I know that do usually play this erratically, but Ecth is not one of them. He's usually quiet with his voting, giving little explanation and putting his vote in towards the latter end of the cycle. This game he appears to have taken a leaf out of my book: I usually am one of the more lynch-happy players out there on D1.

 

Now, my tactics suggestions:

Thug: Self-protect until later in the game when we can more-accurately predict who the elims will attack.

Tineye: A good use of this power would be to scan claimed vanillas to make sure they're on the level.

Rioter: This can be used as a scan for elim kills and coinshots: redirect all actions to inactive players and if they die then you know that your target made a kill.

Soother: Please use your action first round so we know how many of you there are. After that, just be prudent with your abilites.

Coinshot: Kill suspicious people. Easy! (if only)

Seeker: Start scanning now. If you scan a player as using an ability, you know that they did not send in the elim kill.

Smoker: Smoke yourself to keep your vote from being negated. If a Seeker confronts you in PM about making no actions, claim to them.

Regular: Stay alive and vote.

 

RP:

Ash fell from a dismal sky, settling on the gnarled leaves of a few withered, brown plants. The city of Urteau's proximity to the Ashmounts made it a poor place for growing any sort of plant life, which is why more than a few people had questions as to why an environmentalist such as Arboreon would choose to make Urteau his headquarters. Had Arboreon actually been an environmentalist, he would have agreed with them. But Urteau served its purpose: its numerous canal networks made the shipping of his special "fertilizer" efficient, and the frequent conflicts in the area kept Arboreon's fertilizer in high demand.

On this particular day, Arboreon was talking to a particularly-dangerous client: a nobleman. Sure, he had considered turning the noble in to Quellion, but after some quick figuring Arboreon had found that he stood to earn nearly 150% more boxings if he did not. And since Arboreon valued money over his own safety, he had decided to meet with the nobleman, at least as long as it suited him.

"Is the stuff as... potent as the rumors say?" Arboreon's contact wore a dark hood that cast all of his face except for a thickly-bearded chin into shadow.

"You'll find it potent enough for what you have in mind." Arboreon really had no idea what the noble had in mind with the stuff, but he enjoyed the sudden stiffness that shot up his contact's back.

"I see... can I get a demonstration?"

Arboreon nodded, and then pulled a small pouch from where he hid it on the inside of his belt. Kneeling down over a rock, he sprinkled out a small amount of fine, grey powder, which formed a one-inch cone that looked like a miniature Ashmount. He stepped back and allowed the nobleman to light the powder. With a sudden whooosh! the "fertilizer" lit, creating a foot-wide fireball that left a starburst-shaped burn on the stone below. The nobleman looked up, beard slightly-singed and still smoking.

"I find the goods satisfactory. When can you deliver?"

 

Just now, Sart said:

She

Ecth is male; he just uses a female avatar.

[Elbereth]

4 minutes ago, Sart said:

That being said, I don't think Ecth is an Eliminator for two main reasons. First, she made a mistake about the game. I'm not claiming that Eliminators are infallible, but I believe they wait longer to post, and double check that everything is correct. They don't want their manipulation thrown out on a technicality. They also take their time, in case their rashness makes it obvious that their logic is flawed. That's why I was surprised she called out Clanky. Second, no one has defended her. She's gotten four votes in a short span, which should have caused a reaction if she was on a team. However, I haven't seen a single post that isn't expressing some suspicion of her. That strikes me as odd. Elims are generally more active than Villagers, so not having a single defense is concerning. I especially didn't like Elbereth's argument. How is voting for someone that has a poke vote on him supposed to start a lynch train? I understand your vote is mostly for information gathering, but it seems like a stretch.

I... don't know where you're getting that? I said nothing about lynch trains... I do agree that it's odd that no one's defended Ecth yet. I don't agree about the point about eliminators not being rash, though - while they often aren't, I could entirely see Ecth instead being overexcited about being an eliminator and be more rash than usual. 

Len, one thing about your recommendations - if a Seeker successfully scans someone, then they also see alignment. So you know a bit more than the fact that that person didn't place the elim kill.  

[Doc12]

 

23 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'd like to note that there have been a lot of players defending me. It's making me nervous. I suspect at least one of them is an eliminator. Right now I'm looking at Doctor, Jondesu, and Elbereth.

You flatter yourself, Lopen :P. You're not clear in my books just yet. I'm just saying that posting game advice is *not* inherently suspicious after Ecth called you out on it. So while your *post* does not make you suspicious, you yourself aren't clear. I make it a practice to trust absolutely no one going in. I don't pretend to be as good a reader as Elbereth is, so no, I don't have any solid reads just yet. 

And Lopen, a poke vote is dangerous in this game, when just two votes are enough to get someone lynched. Two votes is an extremely low threshold, and makes perfect for eliminators trying to get someone lynched last minute.

...and I just thought of something with possible bad implications. Without ties, this means that more than one person could be lynched each cycle! That's...very dangerous,don't you think? With four eliminators, they could possibly get two villagers lynched in a cycle. With more than that...well, you get the idea. 

We're going to have to be very careful and watch our votes. Very careful. 

EDIT: Responses to Elbereth and Len, because I was ninjaed and didn't want to double post.

Len, you're forgetting about the Regulars. They can't be scanned at all. 

7 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I could entirely see Ecth instead being overexcited about being an eliminator and be more rash than usual. 

Only, Ecth was an eliminator for the LG25, LG26 and QF18. He didn't exactly act this way, did he? Does changing his playstyle mean he's a villager now? I fully admit that I do not have a full, complete read on Ecth, and might not be best qualified to judge. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Doctor12

[TheMightyLopen]

8 minutes ago, Sart said:

Well, let's do a vote count:

Lopen (2): Orlok, Ecth
Ecth (4): Lopen, Elb, Ripple, Nyali

To play devil's advocate for a second, let's look at what Ecth has done. She voted for Lopen as soon as Lopen posted. She claimed that his role recommendations were suspicious. She tried to link it to Aman's playstyle, which isn't a very convincing argument. However, she did pull up quotes from when Lopen was evil. In that game Lopen was neutral, so the comparison isn't entirely sound. She's trying to say that advice for roles doesn't contribute much, and is suspicious. I think she's reading into this too much. I've seen villagers and eliminators post strategies that supposedly help the town. I don't think that indicates alignment either way. In addition, Lopen was doing the right thing by responding to Orlok's post vote with actual game advice. That's better than just saying, "Here!"

That being said, I don't think Ecth is an Eliminator for two main reasons. First, she made a mistake about the game. I'm not claiming that Eliminators are infallible, but I believe they wait longer to post, and double check that everything is correct. They don't want their manipulation thrown out on a technicality. They also take their time, in case their rashness makes it obvious that their logic is flawed. That's why I was surprised she called out Clanky. Second, no one has defended her. She's gotten four votes in a short span, which should have caused a reaction if she was on a team. However, I haven't seen a single post that isn't expressing some suspicion of her. That strikes me as odd. Elims are generally more active than Villagers, so not having a single defense is concerning. I especially didn't like Elbereth's argument. How is voting for someone that has a poke vote on him supposed to start a lynch train? I understand your vote is mostly for information gathering, but it seems like a stretch.

Did you mean Nyali? Nyali is the one who said Ecth was trying to start a lynch train.

6 minutes ago, Elenion said:

There are a few users that I know that do usually play this erratically, but Ecth is not one of them. He's usually quiet with his voting, giving little explanation and putting his vote in towards the latter end of the cycle. This game he appears to have taken a leaf out of my book: I usually am one of the more lynch-happy players out there on D1.

 

Now, my tactics suggestions:

Thug: Self-protect until later in the game when we can more-accurately predict who the elims will attack.

Tineye: A good use of this power would be to scan claimed vanillas to make sure they're on the level.

Rioter: This can be used as a scan for elim kills and coinshots: redirect all actions to inactive players and if they die then you know that your target made a kill.

Soother: Please use your action first round so we know how many of you there are. After that, just be prudent with your abilites.

Coinshot: Kill suspicious people. Easy! (if only)

Seeker: Start scanning now. If you scan a player as using an ability, you know that they did not send in the elim kill.

Smoker: Smoke yourself to keep your vote from being negated. If a Seeker confronts you in PM about making no actions, claim to them.

Regular: Stay alive and vote.

 

If the Thug is a quiet, unlikely target for the elim kill, they could protect more likely targets. Heck, I'd love some protection!

Joe, can Rioters redirect the elim kill?

Oh, one thing I forgot to say in my previous suggestions. I think it could be a good idea if Soothers use their abilities all the time so they can be scanned. Joe, if multiple Soothers target the same player, does it count as if they all Burned metal? If yes, then we could designate a vote to get Soothed.

Doctor, I know you didn't really say you trusted me or anything. I just got kind of a bad read from your first post and you were, in a way, defending me.

I agree that we need to be careful with our votes, but at this stage, I highly doubt the elims are going to do much voting shenanigans. Past Cycle 3 or 4, I think we need to be extra wary.

[Elbereth]

8 minutes ago, Doctor12 said:

 

You flatter yourself, Lopen :P. You're not clear in my books just yet. I'm just saying that posting game advice is *not* inherently suspicious after Ecth called you out on it. So while your *post* does not make you suspicious, you yourself aren't clear. I make it a practice to trust absolutely no one going in. I don't pretend to be as good a reader as Elbereth is, so no, I don't have any solid reads just yet. 

Only, Ecth was an eliminator for the LG25, LG26 and QF18. He didn't exactly act this way, did he? Does changing his playstyle mean he's a villager now? I fully admit that I do not have a full, complete read on Ecth, and might not be best qualified to judge. 

Whoever said I was a good reader? (Ask Aman what I thought about him in LG24, for instance.) I don't have any solid reads, either. You're overestimating me. Again.  

Hm. I'm not actually sure. It's a good point that he hasn't been good in a while (and his good playstyle has very likely changed since those first few games), but I can't say whether he's acting similarly to those games. I wasn't particularly paying attention to him (partly because I wasn't playing any of them ). And of course you're qualified to judge. No one has full complete reads on anyone yet. It's Day 1. The game's been going for 6 hours. That's not nearly enough time to get any sort of accurate read on anyone else. But those reads only get better with practice and doing things like what you're doing, i.e. saying what reads you have on others.  So don't hesitate to do that. 

And yeah, vote problems will probably be a thing that happens. Joe apparently likes that mechanic.  (I do too. Makes the game more interesting.) Something to be careful of. 

[Dani]

55 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I'd like to note that there have been a lot of players defending me. It's making me nervous. I suspect at least one of them is an eliminator. Right now I'm looking at Doctor, Jondesu, and Elbereth.

It's right to suspect that. Something I learnt the hard way in MR17, where people had village reads on me when I had literally done or said nothing. Almost all of them turned out to be Elims, trying to gain trust maybe? 

Okay, I'm not going to vote this cycle, at least not now. Lopen doesn't seem like an Elim to me. Yes, I know, first I say suspect those who defend you this early on and then defend you myself, but the above comment of yours is giving me a little village read on you. Im not saying you're entirely clear yet . 

As for Ecth, I honestly have no idea. 

I'm leaning a bit towards Elbereth being an Elim, but that's mostly because of the reasons given by Sart. I could change my mind if strong argument is given against it; I'm easily manipulated. 

(Not a helpful post, just thoughts) 

Edit- Oh, and I have a bad gut feeling about Doc. Just wanted to say it out here. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Daniyah
Added the thing about Doc

[A Joe in the Bush]

9 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Joe, can Rioters redirect the elim kill?

Joe, if multiple Soothers target the same player, does it count as if they all Burned metal?

Yes

Yes

[Assassin in Burgundy]

Just out of curiosity, what's the average amount of Elims in a QF this size?

[Ecthelion III]

I think I'll actually switch from Lopen to Elbereth because she seemed too eager to capitalize on Lopen and I voting for each other.

If I were really an eliminator, would I really be this risky? As was just proven, it's a really easy way to accrue a lot of votes.

At this point I'm just wondering who we should lynch after I am lynched and am revealed to be a villager.

[Ecthelion III]

Elbereth is currently in PMs but hasn't posted in 7 minutes. Doc is also on.

[Amanuensis]

21 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elbereth is currently in PMs but hasn't posted in 7 minutes. Doc is also on.

Going to mention me too? I've been viewing the thread for a quite a while now  

I'm too tired to conduct analyses and am beginning to regret joining this game, as it's already taking up more of my time and attention than I can afford. So as a result, I'm going to formally request that the eliminators attack me this turn so I can focus on my NaNo.

Before I die though, I will say Ecth is my best bet for a villager right now, and I'm considerably more suspicious of Len than usual. I've got a couple more reads but I'm not going to make those public for now; instead at the end of this cycle I'll info dump all the strategic thoughts and analysis I have to three players in PMs so that it's guaranteed to be in the villages hands.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elbereth]

45 minutes ago, Assassin in Burgundy said:

Just out of curiosity, what's the average amount of Elims in a QF this size?

Well, we've never had a QF this size with eliminators.  (The only larger is QF17, which was a free for all.) But QF14 had one less, and it had 5 elims. (And then three died thanks to Alv.) That seems like a reasonable estimate, assuming no secrets.

That's not something I'd like to assume.  

29 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

I think I'll actually switch from Lopen to Elbereth because she seemed too eager to capitalize on Lopen and I voting for each other.

If I were really an eliminator, would I really be this risky? As was just proven, it's a really easy way to accrue a lot of votes.

At this point I'm just wondering who we should lynch after I am lynched and am revealed to be a villager.

Did I? I was actually intending to vote for you even before Lopen posted his response (though obviously I can't prove that), based on your reasoning and the fact that I had a slight village read on him. 

Would you? One, that's basically an IKYK. And two... risky isn't the word I'd use for it. You've been proactive, yes, but that isn't necessarily alignment indicative, in my opinion.  

We'll find someone. It's day one. Is my vote for you any more solid than yours for me or for Lopen? No, not really. Is it better than any other suspicion I have at moment? Yes. (I don't currently have any other suspicions, although I am watching Doctor.) Next cycle we'll have more information to work with, from the elim kill and your death. Hopefully we can be more informed then. For now, we're almost certain to hit a villager. Most first cycle lynches do. At moment, you're my best guess, but it's still a guess. 

21 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Elbereth is currently in PMs but hasn't posted in 7 minutes. Doc is also on.

Interesting. Because until this post, I actually hadn't posted since my last in-thread post. I was looking at a PM for a bit, yes. I wasn't posting in it. And then I came over here and looked at this thread for ten minutes or so as I got ready for bed. The activity watcher isn't exactly perfect. 

And... more to the point, why are you posting this? What conclusions do you want to draw? Are you trying to draw a line between me and Doctor, or say that we're probably not teammates? You don't even say whether Doc's also in PMs or just in thread watching. What's your point? 

And I'm gong to bed. It's been a while since I've been this active, and it makes me happy to have a thread that engages me again.  I didn't RP, but hopefully I'll be able to do so tomorrow, since I do rather like the character concept I have for this game. Night for now. 

[Darkness Ascendant]

Darkness Ascendant didn't have a name this game, so he decided to stick with Wasing the way of eliminator. His friends called him Mr Eliminator, among other synonyms. He tried hard to blend in with the elims, which is difficult when one is a villager, and not even an allomancer to boot

 

[A Joe in the Bush]

Remember you can only talk to three people via pm's per cycle. Also, please start adding Metacognition to PM's. He wants to be entertained.

[Stick.]

I always forget how quick things go in QFs...

Right now, I see people voting for each other mostly by relying on their guts. Honestly, I'm not suspicious of anyone right now, though I'll put in a last minute vote because I like doing that :-P Also, it would be nice if we can manage to lynch off two or more elims this cycle. If anyone cares, I'm willing to role-claim in PMs if you role-claim back