Quick Fix Game 18: The Black Prism

[Elenion]

Just now, Daniyah said:

You mean Bard was their role block?

 

Isn't that what Green does?

Edit: Sorry, typo. I meant Bard.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Elenion

[AliasSheep]

2 minutes ago, Elenion said:

My reasoning was based off of this: there are at minimum three starting eliminators, and I doubt any of them are sub-reds or super-violets. Mage was their roleblock. I put myself in the GMs' shoes: If I was giving out abilities, what would I give them? One of them would definitely be vote manip. Vote manips win games: just see how the Derethi team took over LG24 and killed all of the Jeskeri in just a few rounds. Or in MR16, where the Nalthians almost got a majority, and would have had one had I not killed Conquestor.

There's no real way of knowing the distribution of roles in the game.  I'm more inclined to think they were pseudo-randomly assigned rather than the GM specifically giving the eliminators certain roles.  That just seems to be creating some kind of bias.

 

[Dani]

Just now, Elenion said:

Isn't that what Green does?

Wasn't Bard a green drifter?

[Elenion]

Just now, Daniyah said:

Wasn't Bard a green drifter?

Sorry, I typed Mage instead of Bard.

[AliasSheep]

10 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I'm not saying 2 Orange Drafters, I'm saying 2 Vote-Manips. We've got to factor in full polychromes, bichromes, and maybe even the Prism.

2 vote-manips is still a lot.  2 or 3 orange drafters including polychromes etc (excluding the prism) seems more likely than not.  Like I said earlier, there's a small number of players and a limited distribution of roles across those players.  There's at least 1 neutral (and possibly more), and both Ecth and myself (yes, I am claiming) are "Normal", which means without a role.  That's 12 at a maximum that drafters could be distributed over.  A single bichrome has a higher probability of not being orange than being orange;  I wouldn't imagine there's more than say 5 or 6 bichromes in the game?  Any more than half the drafters seems excessive.  Out of them, like 1 or 2 will be able to draft orange?  More likely 1 than 2.  Then you have to have an orange-something bichrome and an orange drafter.  Then if we include the prism, that's like 3 orange drafters in the game.  The prism seems less likely to be a spy than not; I just have mostly thematic issues with this.  Then saying there's like 3 or 4 eliminators, and we know that one of them was a green drafter, then it seems unlikely that 2 others would be orange.  The chances of that occuring seems low at best, and even if the GM is doing what you think they're doing and purposefully making a distribution, that's an unbalanced distribution.  So if we say it's 1 orange drafter they have, that's 1 vote manip.  Which isn't a lot of manipulation going on especially if you knew you were going to change votes yourself to strengthen the vote.  It seems like the point about strengthening the vote to stop vote manip seems kind of... weak.

 

EDIT: 
That was kind of rambly, sorry

Edited September 28, 2016 by AliasSheep

[Elenion]

6 minutes ago, AliasSheep said:

Then saying there's like 3 or 4 eliminators, and we know that one of them was a green drafter, then it seems unlikely that 2 others would be orange.  The chances of that occuring seems low at best, and even if the GM is doing what you think they're doing and purposefully making a distribution, that's an unbalanced distribution.  So if we say it's 1 orange drafter they have, that's 1 vote manip.  Which isn't a lot of manipulation going on especially if you knew you were going to change votes yourself to strengthen the vote.  It seems like the point about strengthening the vote to stop vote manip seems kind of... weak

I said that there were probably 2 vote-manips in the game. One I already knew about: me. Chances that the elims have one are pretty good, and that lynch was already shaky. A couple more votes (from Bard's teammates) and we would've missed.

[Elenion]

Is turnover in 10 mins or in 70?

[AliasSheep]

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I said that there were probably 2 vote-manips in the game. One I already knew about: me. Chances that the elims have one are pretty good, and that lynch was already shaky. A couple more votes (from Bard's teammates) and we would've missed.

Hmm.  Alright.  I think I was probably exaggerating it somewhat then in my head >.>. Len

 

[Elenion]

1 minute ago, AliasSheep said:

Hmm.  Alright.  I think I was probably exaggerating it somewhat then in my head >.>. Len

Thank you. I'll take off the order redirecting your vote to Assassin. 

[AliasSheep]

And to clarify before someone brings it up; I did mention about voting on inactives, but it's not the first cycle, it's the third, and as Mage as said, Assassin has kept quiet as an eliminator in the past and won.

That all being said, if he's been on and seen our posts, and seen this discussion, why wouldn't he have responded?

[Ecthelion III]

I'll increase the vote margin on Assassin to help avoid manipulation. Whoever I was on before

[Elenion]

I still don't know about the write-up time, but Elby's on because she just noted my manip withdrawal.

[Assassin in Burgundy]

Sorry for not being on. How many charges are leveled against me right now?

EDIT: Also, the reason I state quiet in LG25 was because that was my first game. I'll try and do more though, assuming I last this round. How much time is left until turnover?

Edited September 28, 2016 by Assassin in Burgundy

[Straw]

Thread is closed!

[Straw]

Quick Fix 18: Cycle Four - Something Part 2

[writeup to be edited in]

Magestar has died. He was a Superviolet Drafter!
Assassin was lynched! He was a Normal Villager!
Conquestor has died of the inactivity filter! He was a Normal Villager!

Vote Count
Elenion (1): Mark
Assassin (3): Elenion, Ecthelion, Magestar

Cycle 4 has begun! You have 24 hours to send in actions and choose who to lynch.

[url=http://www.pending.me.uk][/url]

Player List

 

1. Voral Grim (Alvron)Neutral Assassin

2. The Unnamed Person (The Young Bard)Green Drafter
3. Faren (Conquestor)Normal Villager
4. Nivag Pik (Assassin in Burgundy)Normal Villager
5. Brent Weak (Darkness Acendant)
6. Alexios of Illytia (Sheep)
7. Chaos (Lady of Chaos)
8. Human Target (Ecthelion III)
9. Has Too Much Time (Metacognition)Normal Villager
10. Stick (Stick)
11. Mark (Mark)
12. Fright Angel (STINK)Normal Villager
13. Epsilon (Daniyah)
14. The Blob (Elenion)
15. Test Subject #134 (Magestar)Super-Violet Drafter

 

[Elenion]

Sheep.

Last turn, Mage and I got a PM going. In it, he expressed a growing mistrust of Sheep, and confided in me a bit of information designed as a safety valve should anything happen to him. That information is now obsolete: it was Sheep's role-claim, before he made it in-thread.

However, I just got thinking: how would Mage have gotten a role-claim from Sheep? PM is possible, but I find it more likely that Sheep was Mage's doc add at the end of turn one or turn two. This fits with something he told me: that he trusted Sheep for "personal reasons". That was why I dropped my vote on Sheep last round. Looking at Mage's role, there is little doubt in my mind that Sheep was in Mage's doc at that time. This would also explain the exact sequence of events: Mage adds Sheep to the Superviolet Doc, Sheep claims Normal to Mage, Mage claims Superviolet to Sheep, Mage becomes suspicious of Sheep, Mage gives me the safety valve, Sheep says in the elim doc that Mage has no protection, Sheep claims Normal in-thread, Sheep or a buddy puts the kill in, Mage dies.

[Dani]

Three more villagers gone. This is bad. 

Elenion, Sheep claimed Normal in-thread about 4 hours ago right? But he also claimed Normal to me in our PM, which was about 11 hours ago.

[Elenion]

3 hours ago, Daniyah said:

Three more villagers gone. This is bad. 

Elenion, Sheep claimed Normal in-thread about 4 hours ago right? But he also claimed Normal to me in our PM, which was about 11 hours ago.

Mage gave me Sheep's info 18 hours ago per the PM timer. Adjusting for the time between posts, Mage told me Sheep was Normal 4 hours before Sheep claimed to you, and 11 hours before he claimed in-thread.

[Dani]

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

Mage gave me Sheep's info 18 hours ago per the PM timer. Adjusting for the time between posts, Mage told me Sheep was Normal 4 hours before Sheep claimed to you, and 11 hours before he claimed in-thread.

Oh okay then.

[Stick.]

Great job lynching Assassin guys - _ -

How many of us have we lost till now? Five?

[Darkness Ascendant]

I vote Stick I believe she is pretending to be a villager because he started a PM with me saying that she opened it randomly, and she asked if I was an Eliminator, which I think she did just to make it seem as if she was a villager and that she was looking for an eliminator.

1 hour ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Great job lynching Assassin guys - _ -

How many of us have we lost till now? Five?

That seems a bit....forced. "US"? THERE IS NO "US" who we consider "US" could well and truly be eliminators in disguise.

EDIT- Sorry stick, I thought u were a guy. Daniyah just told me u were female.

Edited September 29, 2016 by Darkness Ascendant

[Stick.]

I have proof. But I can't say anything without revealing my role so...I guess if I get more votes and find myself in a desperate situation I'll go for it 

[AliasSheep]

14 hours ago, Elenion said:

Sheep.

Last turn, Mage and I got a PM going. In it, he expressed a growing mistrust of Sheep, and confided in me a bit of information designed as a safety valve should anything happen to him. That information is now obsolete: it was Sheep's role-claim, before he made it in-thread.

However, I just got thinking: how would Mage have gotten a role-claim from Sheep? PM is possible, but I find it more likely that Sheep was Mage's doc add at the end of turn one or turn two. This fits with something he told me: that he trusted Sheep for "personal reasons". That was why I dropped my vote on Sheep last round. Looking at Mage's role, there is little doubt in my mind that Sheep was in Mage's doc at that time. This would also explain the exact sequence of events: Mage adds Sheep to the Superviolet Doc, Sheep claims Normal to Mage, Mage claims Superviolet to Sheep, Mage becomes suspicious of Sheep, Mage gives me the safety valve, Sheep says in the elim doc that Mage has no protection, Sheep claims Normal in-thread, Sheep or a buddy puts the kill in, Mage dies.

I was in Magestar's doc indeed; he effectively revealed his identity too me very soon after me joining the doc.  He also told me he was getting protection from a Red Drafter, which I assume would block elim kills.  Thus the kill was a sub-red kill, and not something orchestratable by eliminators (I'm going to say now that I think the elims having a sub-red seems unlikely; that's two kills they'd have.).  That, or the red drafter they had an agreement with didn't make good on the deal.  I was in talks with a red drafter myself and Mage expressed surprise at there being more than one red drafter, though I don't myself doubt the possibility of there being two.

And I've claimed Normal 4 different times to 4 different people in 4 different places.  Twice in PMs, once in the superviolet doc and once in thread.  Another interesting thing is that Mage told me in the superviolet doc that they'd seen a third Normal claim other than mine and Ecth's.

And say, how does my role-claim act as a safety valve?  The only reason I didn't post it first turn is because of the suspicion Ecth drew.  I don't see what leverage that would gain on me or on the lynch?  And did Mage tell you more about where his mistrust was coming from, or was it just a bad feeling? Because a mistrust in me (which I think developed from me going for you, or at least that's the impression I got from my discussions with you, where he seemed to trust you quite a bit) doesn't mean that I was the one who called in the kill.

4 hours ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

That seems a bit....forced. "US"? THERE IS NO "US" who we consider "US" could well and truly be eliminators in disguise.

No.. how does it sound forced?  If anything your post feels forced.

I'm gonna read the previous cycles over more (I just got in from school) and then post something more; El just doesn't seem as suspicious anymore.

[Mark IV]

Why would El seem suspicious? ... Oh wait that's not elbereth, it's elenion... Oops..

 

I confess.. I have no idea who is suspicious right now... Sheep's arguements all hold water, while my accusations against elenion were just me grasping at straws... daniyah seems cleared to me based on our PM conversations. And I was really beginning to trust mage as well, but then he had to go and get killed. Stick, so far, I have had little to judge. My limited online time is a hindrance when it comes to gathering readsoin people.. Others are at a similar stage too, where I don't have too much to read them on..

Sheep, you say he (magestar) had protection? Are you sure? Because that would mean there was no elim kill this cycle. Which means it was blocked. Which means if someone roleblocked someone else last turn then the role blocked person would be evil, most likely. That, or they are inactive.... 

Either way, I have no idea whom to vote for right now... And I don't wake up until after turnover... So, yeah.. Just putting my thoughts out there.. 

 

[The_Lady_of_Chaos]

I'm not sure who to vote for either. I still technically have yet to vote and i'd like to vote this time, but i'm honestly not sure.