Long Game 25: A Breath of Power

[Doc12]

Please, do scan me. Bards answer does look right,  which seems to show that Ecth might have just wanted to drag another villagers down with him. I want to be scanned, if only to prove that I. Am. A. Villager. 

Let me muse on the possibilities if it is true that i am the only answer. 

1.Ecth was hoping to cause as much damage as possible before he fell, knowing the rush of solving the puzzle might overpower other discussion. 

2. Adding on to reason one, he wanted to both kill a villager and divert attention from Mint and Mark, whom as you noticed were fully cleared in the riddle. 

In both cases, the riddle is then a fake as i am a villager. I fully allow myself to be scanned, i have one Breath with a four breath strawman. Unless someone scans me and lies about the result or someone blocks the scan with awakened rope, you will see that I am telling the truth. 

[Dalinar Kholin]

Why on earth are we examining the riddle of a returned? What incentive would he have to make a riddle which led to one of his companions death? (and if he had, why purposefully make it confusing, we should examine the logic, not get distracted by riddles)

41 minutes ago, Doctor12 said:

Please, do scan me. Bards answer does look right,  which seems to show that Ecth might have just wanted to drag another villagers down with him. I want to be scanned, if only to prove that I. Am. A. Villager. 

Let me muse on the possibilities if it is true that i am the only answer. 

1.Ecth was hoping to cause as much damage as possible before he fell, knowing the rush of solving the puzzle might overpower other discussion. 

2. Adding on to reason one, he wanted to both kill a villager and divert attention from Mint and Mark, whom as you noticed were fully cleared in the riddle. 

In both cases, the riddle is then a fake as i am a villager. I fully allow myself to be scanned, i have one Breath with a four breath strawman. Unless someone scans me and lies about the result or someone blocks the scan with awakened rope, you will see that I am telling the truth. 

And Doctor, did you not say after the last lynch that you also had awakened clothing? I'm just pointed that out as a confused side not, but more importantly, we have evidence to be gained from looking back at previous posts now that we know for certain we have gotten a returned.

1st: Luckat has been more or less cleared in my mind. He was the one who started the push for Ecth, if it wasn't for his post I probably would have voted for Mark, and it was his push which made Ecth the ultimate target. The only reason a elim would do that would be to sack a member in order to get him a trusted position (which should definitely be considered possible, but highly unlikely until corroborated).

2nd: Notice who fought against Ecth/bandwagoned later once it was inevitable: Doctor switched his vote twice before settling on Ecth. Metacognition made a powerful argument against Lucat and for Mark, Bard voted late, and Lopen also voted late. Lopen was already mentioned as switching from Mark to Araris last lynch as noted by Luckat (would you care to explain why when you get a chance?).

               I'm not saying these people are Returned, but I'm saying that we need to keep an eye out.

Also, we shouldn't forget about Mark.

 

 

Edited August 29, 2016 by Dalinar Kholin

[Doc12]

Alright, time to tell a secret. Last cycle, ireceived three Breath. I didn't know from whom or why until Silverblade died the next night. Yes, I think those three Breaths were Silverblades. Why? I don't know,we've barely spoken in PMs. 

I pulled the one Breath from my clothing and used it to Awaken a Four Breath strawman,  leaving me with one Breath remaining. 

Why didn't i reveal this sooner? Simple, i didn't know why i was given this Breath, iwas assuming the eliminators wouldn't either, and what they didn't know they couldn't use. 

But now, as I open myself to a scan, ithought it best to reveal everything so my claims will be totally true. 

Now, for reference,  I started with two Breaths, now i have five, four inside the strawman. 

Feel free to steal this one breath now, Eliminators... 

Edited August 29, 2016 by Doctor12

[Dalinar Kholin]

Also, think I realized why the elim's are going after inactive people. They receive the full amount of breath because the people will never have put their breathe into objects. Do we know the average starting breath count? We could figure out how much breath the returned probably have and get a rough estimate of their capabilities.

And thank you for explaining doctor.

[TheMightyLopen]

Right, my vote switch. Well, I did explain my reasoning when I changed my vote, but here it is again. I didn't think it would be very fair to Ecthelion to lynch him when he might have just won the Lottery to avoid death and it seemed simple enough to have him scanned by a Strawman during the Night so I didn't want to lynch him, and the lynch on Mark just felt too easy to me. Usually when a lynch has no resistance like that, it's a villager. So I moved my vote.

[Conquestor]

I knew it! Haven't I been saying the entire time that Ecthelion was a returned.

[Young Bard]

I had a great big post ready, but my computer ate it (I had it in my bag during a thunderstorm the other day, and I suspect that may have damaged it. One by one, it's becoming harder to use). For some reason, right on the last paragraph, my computer decided that whenever I press the "Enter" Key, that I clearly want the last paragraph I wrote to be deleted. Fun. :/ I'm just hoping that was a one time event...
Shift+Enter seems to work though, so that's a start. Here's a summary of what I had written before:
Vote shift: I was originally going to post about 15 minutes before rollover to foil the vote manips, but I only realized that morning that I wouldn't be able to do that, because I had a Charity Meeting to go to (although not much happened today, but such is life...) that lunchtime. The vote in the morning was a hasty compromise, and nearly made me miss my train.
Doctor: I have to admit, I'm kind of impatient for those scan results. Eliminators have performed double bluffs in the past (Aman in LG21 is a good example), and I consider it more than possible that's what's happening here. In addition, Doctor's post about receiving SB's Breath seemed off to me in both content and language structure. I'll try and explain further the moment I have a fully functioning computer, but really? SB just gave away his Breath to someone he hadn't spoken with, committing suicide in the process? It just strikes me as unlikely.
Oh, and El, is there a distinction between people that started as Potential Returned and full Returned in the write-up?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Well, I think luckat is likely village, after starting that lynch off. Also Frozen mint, and Dalinar and Conquestor to a lesser extent, for jumping on the bandwagon when a bandwagon would effectively determine the lynch.

Meta is currently on top of my suspicion list. He tried to divert the lynch, with an argument that seemed more cherry-picked than thought out. I'm also looking at Doctor, for joining the vote on Mark.

[Magestar]

I have to agree with Doc, and I just don't think we should trust this riddle at all.  If anything, it makes me more suspicious of Mark and Frozen, with one of them definitely being an Elim.  I really want to lynch Frozen, but we should probably divide our efforts between those who the riddle incriminates, and those who we decide are suspicious.  I think Doc should be scanned, and Frozen/Mark should be lynched, if only because an Elim riddle 'clears' them.  I think it's entirely possible that all five are Elims, and this riddle was meant to mess us up.

Luckstar turned out to not be so fortunate, I guess.  Huh.  It's weird to see my gut read on Ecth, which I had attempted to logically disprove to myself, was accurate.

I'm so confused.  I think I really want to lynch Frozen, and then if they are an Elim, I want to lynch Meta or Lopen. I don't know... They bandwagoned on an Elim, and that just seems wrong.  The Riddle + some evidence makes Doc seem really suspicious.  I just have had a bad feeling about Frozen.  But I've been wrong before.

Someone with a Rabbit should kill one of our top suspects, and I think everyone should discuss that tonight.

Edited August 29, 2016 by Magestar
When spell check changes Luckstar to Huckster...

[Elbereth]

1 hour ago, The Young Bard said:

Oh, and El, is there a distinction between people that started as Potential Returned and full Returned in the write-up?

No.

[Frozen Mint]

Magestar, if you're going to be this determined to lynch, I really wish you'd give some sort of reasoning. I don't think we should completely discount "bad feelings" we have about people, but you've gone after me for a while now with no real reason.

We need to figure out the intention of the riddle. I'm going to make a few assumptions:

1) The elims knew we'd solve the riddle.  

2) The elims knew that we wouldn't trust the answer, because they won't give up one of their own.

3) The elims knew that we wouldn't trust that those cleared by the riddle are necessarily innocent. Again, why would we trust information from a Returned?

4) The elims have a strong, strategic motive behind posting the riddle, and didn't decide to share it mostly to watch us go in circles for fun. TBH I'm just adding this in because if this riddle was for their entertainment, there's no way I can analyze it.

It's possible that Doctor is a Returned, and that the elims are using reverse psychology ("they'll never think that a Returned will reveal one of their own"). I find this unlikely, because I don't see any reason they have to put Doc in the spotlight. Practically no one's suspected him (except Ecth on day 1 for vague reasons). So why go out of their way to show us that he's innocent? Or mention him at all?

They could be trying making everyone else in the riddle look suspicious. If a Returned says that someone is innocent, then maybe they're Returned? But this is too simple. Too easy to figure out. This is going to get really hard to explain, but I'm gonna try... They know that we don't trust the riddle, and I'm guessing they knew that we would expect them to know that we won't trust the riddle. It's such a straightforward way of turning people against each other. The elims say someone is innocent, so they must be guilty! It's too easy to see through, and I think the elims give the village more credit than that.

Everyone in the riddle could be innocent, and the Returned are trying to redirect conversation towards them. This is a more subtle way of keeping the focus off of themselves. Out of all the possibilities, this makes the most sense to me. 

Edited August 29, 2016 by Frozen Mint

[Magestar]

30 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Magestar, if you're going to be this determined to lynch, I really wish you'd give some sort of reasoning. I don't think we should completely discount "bad feelings" we have about people, but you've gone after me for a while now with no real reason.

I just went back through everything I thought was Elim-esque about you, and wrote a long drawn out argument to the effect that you were evil, before deciding that most of my suspicions were baseless.   Well, I guess we don't need to lynch Frozen.  All I have left is the gut feeling and a few too well placed coincidences, which involve defending certain players and attacking others, who I thought were evil and good respectively.  Nothing I can be sure of, except that lynching you would answer a lot of my questions, and I did not feel it was definitely necessary to keep you alive.

I would love to go into further detail, but I don't really have a lot of time.  PM me, and I will try to answer your questions.

[Mark IV]

Ah! Frozen mint.. you beat me to it.

I agree with frozen, atleast as far as I could follow it. 

The eliminators knew we would solve it. Thus, they knew we'd find that doctor was evil, and the other four were not the answer.

The eliminators also knew we wouldn't trust the riddle and think it was some sort of a plot/IKYK. Thus, we'd inherently suspect those that were cleared. 

But, the eliminators wouldn't want to throw one of their own into the spotlight. Thus, I'd say it's useless to draw conclusions based off of anything in the riddle. 

I suggest we ifpgnore that the riddle even exists. Just pretend that ecth died without a last word. After all, what benefit would ecth try to give us if he were on the elim team? His words would only serve to enfoul (is that a word?) our progress.

That said, it isn't mentioned anywhere that there's only one elim in the riddle. Two or more of the people could be elims. We just have to see who's saying what about the riddle. 

 

Ninja'd by Magestar. 

[Dalinar Kholin]

2 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Ah! Frozen mint.. you beat me to it.

I agree with frozen, atleast as far as I could follow it. 

The eliminators knew we would solve it. Thus, they knew we'd find that doctor was evil, and the other four were not the answer.

The eliminators also knew we wouldn't trust the riddle and think it was some sort of a plot/IKYK. Thus, we'd inherently suspect those that were cleared. 

But, the eliminators wouldn't want to throw one of their own into the spotlight. Thus, I'd say it's useless to draw conclusions based off of anything in the riddle. 

I suggest we ifpgnore that the riddle even exists. Just pretend that ecth died without a last word. After all, what benefit would ecth try to give us if he were on the elim team? His words would only serve to enfoul (is that a word?) our progress. 

I agree completely. The riddle by nature causes confusion, confusion aids the returned not the villagers. Does anyone have a good reason to believe the riddle is true or helpful? If so please tell me, because otherwise why would we anlalyze it? 

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

Someone with a Rabbit should kill one of our top suspects, and I think everyone should discuss that tonight.

I agree this should be a priority. The most likely person to have the rabbit would either be someone they have defended vigorously (Mark, is the only subject there), or someone who has been off of the radar and thus less likely to be lynched (thus Lopen?), but those are both total guesses. Anyone got theories who could have the rabbit? (also, it could have been Ecth?)

[Mark IV]

Guys, one thing that caught my notice -

Ecthelion was not saved by the returned. Why not?

Well, I've got to go right now. But I thought I'd point this out.  Sorry, don't have the time right now to explain the while reasoning behind my question.

[Frozen Mint]

6 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Ecthelion was not saved by the returned. Why not?

I assume that they didn't have enough Awakened Clothing.

[Young Bard]

I also don't have much time on my hands, but I'd like to point out that Ecth and a few people who have been individually mentioned as suspicious have had "trusts" on each other for most of the game (from memory, I think Mark and Magestar were part of this group, but I'll go back and double check the thread to make sure before I do proper analysis tonight). I'm going to be focusing on that little trust group for the vast majority of my analysis at least until I see some kind of proof that they're villagers. The elim reads individually, combined with the ties to Ecth and each other, make them by far the strongest elim reads in my mind. Actually, for that reason, because Mark is trying to get us to forget the riddle, it makes me suspect Doctor slightly more by association, but I'm not nearly as sure about that. I did have a weak to moderate village read on him before that.
I will agree that Luckat is basically soft-cleared now. They're definitely my strongest trust.

[A Joe in the Bush]

That's time. I'm still scrambling to find everything, so Writeup will be posted in about ten minutes.

[A Joe in the Bush]

LG25: Day 4 - TITLE

Stanley grinned, standing over Yulis’s bed with a new dagger after he’d gotten rid of the old one. He’d just gotten his payment for the last two drabs from last night, and the coins were a comfortable weight in his pocket.

So he didn’t bother to be subtle this time. He just stabbed. And stabbed. And stabbed. Stomach, throat, cheek, and finally the heart. He giggled maniacally as he did, and couldn’t seem to stop. There’s probably something wrong with me…

I think I don’t actually care.

He laughed and continued to stab, until Yulis was just a bloody, unrecognizable corpse.

Then he went on to the other drab he’d heard of. Jaftar.

This time he decided to be a bit more creative. Glitter!

Jaftar awoke only briefly

---

Breath was stolen!

Mark IV died! He was a Hallandren Villager!  He had a Lifeless!

Silver Dragon died! He was a Hallandren Villager!

Twelfth root of two was killed by an Awakened Rabbit! e was a Hallandren Villager with an Awakened Clothing!

I’m still sending PM’s. I apologize in advance for any inaccuracies in the PM’s.

Edited August 30, 2016 by The Only Joe

[luckat]

Regarding Marks’s death, he gave me information about it for in case it happened. Mark Awakened a Lifeless on Night 2, but at the time he had only 5 Breath. Unfortunately, that made him a Drab and put him at risk of dying. He said he was going to enter the Lottery last night and hope he won, but it appears he didn’t. That’s why he died. So we don’t have to spend extra time wondering what happened.

That means Silver Dragon--another inactive--must have been the one who had his Breath stolen Night 2.

Right now I have two main suspects: Lopen and Meta.

As I mentioned last cycle, Lopen was implicated in the Day 2 lynch every bit as much as Ecthelion, especially when we consider that he essentially protected Ecthelion, a now confirmed Returned. Lopen turned the lynch in favor of a villager while also protecting a Returned and aiding the Returned in their implication of another villager. I have a hard time seeing that as a village action.

Meta, on the other hand, pressed hard for Mark’s lynch last cycle and tried to keep the lynch away from Ecthelion. He insisted that Mark was the Returned with the Rabbit in order to get us to lynch him. Knowing now that Mark was a villager, Meta’s efforts sound a lot him trying to complement the earlier vote manipulation misdirection. The village wasn’t falling for their bait, so he tried to nudge us toward it.

For now, I’m going to place a vote on Meta. I want to hear what everyone else thinks. Also we need to make sure we all decide on a final target to prevent vote manipulation again this cycle. I’ll change my vote to the majority near the end of the cycle if necessary.

Also, the number of village deaths is getting worrying. The eliminators are able to take out two of us each cycle, if they don’t convert one of us, while we can only lynch one at a time. Even if we are always correct in our lynches, our numbers are only going to get closer and closer. We need everyone to be active. We might want to start coordinating night actions with people we trust. We need to make good use of Ropes and Lifeless to keep our numbers from dwindling too fast.

[Conquestor]

Well, I roleblocked Frozen last night, so she couldn't have been the rabbit or the breath thief.  Also, who gave me breath? I only started with four breath and have not won the lottery once, so, how do I have an extra?

[Elbereth]

There were a couple of mistakes in Breath numbers this cycle. All of these have now been fixed. Apologies for the delay. 

[Conquestor]

Guys, I actually have one breath left.

[TheMightyLopen]

15 hours ago, luckat said:

Regarding Marks’s death, he gave me information about it for in case it happened. Mark Awakened a Lifeless on Night 2, but at the time he had only 5 Breath. Unfortunately, that made him a Drab and put him at risk of dying. He said he was going to enter the Lottery last night and hope he won, but it appears he didn’t. That’s why he died. So we don’t have to spend extra time wondering what happened.

That means Silver Dragon--another inactive--must have been the one who had his Breath stolen Night 2.

Right now I have two main suspects: Lopen and Meta.

As I mentioned last cycle, Lopen was implicated in the Day 2 lynch every bit as much as Ecthelion, especially when we consider that he essentially protected Ecthelion, a now confirmed Returned. Lopen turned the lynch in favor of a villager while also protecting a Returned and aiding the Returned in their implication of another villager. I have a hard time seeing that as a village action.

Meta, on the other hand, pressed hard for Mark’s lynch last cycle and tried to keep the lynch away from Ecthelion. He insisted that Mark was the Returned with the Rabbit in order to get us to lynch him. Knowing now that Mark was a villager, Meta’s efforts sound a lot him trying to complement the earlier vote manipulation misdirection. The village wasn’t falling for their bait, so he tried to nudge us toward it.

For now, I’m going to place a vote on Meta. I want to hear what everyone else thinks. Also we need to make sure we all decide on a final target to prevent vote manipulation again this cycle. I’ll change my vote to the majority near the end of the cycle if necessary.

Also, the number of village deaths is getting worrying. The eliminators are able to take out two of us each cycle, if they don’t convert one of us, while we can only lynch one at a time. Even if we are always correct in our lynches, our numbers are only going to get closer and closer. We need everyone to be active. We might want to start coordinating night actions with people we trust. We need to make good use of Ropes and Lifeless to keep our numbers from dwindling too fast.

Well, that's too bad about Mark, but at the very least, his death now saves us from mislynching him. >.>

Luckat, I know you suspect me for my vote switch from Mark to Araris, but why would I have done that to save Ecthelion, who at that point, would probably have been considered a lost cause? Ecthelion was a Returned. Almost definitely because he was a Potential Returned. So, if Potential Returned are scanned as such even after they've turned, all it would take is for him to be scanned, and he'd be lynched/Rabbit killed, because he'd revealed he'd had his Breath stolen. I said I wanted him to be scanned to check him. My vote was placed in a way that places suspicion on me, because of how the votes ended up at the end of the Day and Ecth and Mark's alignments. But I'm not a Returned.

You make an interesting point about Meta though. He seemed to fall for the vote manipulation trick that the eliminators were apparently going for, which is surprising, considering he's Meta. 

11 hours ago, Conquestor said:

Well, I roleblocked Frozen last night, so she couldn't have been the rabbit or the breath thief.  Also, who gave me breath? I only started with four breath and have not won the lottery once, so, how do I have an extra?

Can you tell us why you roleblocked Frozen? I'd just like to hear your reasoning.

Also, we should probably have more votes happening. I know I haven't been very active this game, and I'm sorry for that, but there's still time. There's been quite a few players that haven't posted very much, which makes it hard to tell which team you're on. Assassin in Burgundy, Only Alex, Elodin, Straw, Daniyah, all of you have been extremely quiet. Any thoughts about the game at this point? Who's suspicious, or who's not? As far as my opinions go, I believe luckat has done the most for the village at this point. Everyone else though, it's too murky to tell, because of the low amounts of posts.

It appears that another inactive was hit by the Breath Steal. Doctor, how'd your Breath scan go? Find anyone with a suspiciously high amount of Breath or anything?

[Doc12]

I scanned Bard,  actually, he's a villager. Anyone scanned me last night?