Long Game 25: A Breath of Power

[Ecthelion III]

I'll vote Mark as well simply because I'd rather have at least one person other than me have more than 1 vote.

@Silverblade5 You might want to come here.

[Doc12]

The sticking point here is Mark. We're confused on whether Mark is suspicious, or too suspicious to be suspicious. I honestly don't know, but Meta is right that the rabbit kill occurred the night after Mark was saved. It might be coincidence, but there might be a link as well. I'm ditching my vote for Lopen and going with Mark.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

7 hours ago, Metacognition said:

It makes it a lot more difficult to scan for whomever might have caused all the negation when everyone has Clothing, which I think was the idea. She was setting it up so that they wouldn't be found out if they needed to use their clothing. I'll bet that she didn't expect to need it so soon. 

If you were a returned, would you decide that cover in case of being checked by a strawman is worth a 50% chance of failing your kill every cycle (even before taking protection into account)?

 

7 hours ago, Metacognition said:

Sidenote: Luckat, how are you so sure that Deathclutch was the target and Silverblade gave up their breath? It seems to me that it could just as easily be the other way around and that you know more than you're letting on here. 

 

18 hours ago, luckat said:

Second, there were two drab deaths. I believe the only ways someone can become a drab are by 1) having Breath stolen; 2) giving away Breath; 3) awakening the wrong item; or 4) consuming Breath as a Returned. There can only be one Breath theft each night, so the second one must have died for a different reason. Non-Returned don't consume Breath. Neither player died with an item (Elbereth told me players who died would have their awakened items revealed), and the death would have occurred before they had a chance to retrieve the Breath. Therefore one of the two must have given away their Breath to someone. Deathclutch hasn't been on since right about when the game started, so he hasn't been sending in orders.

Not entirely accurate - DC was last on 20 minutes after the game started, but he'd have died N1 if he lost his breath then. Therefore DC died to Returned steal N1, and SB died to something else.

Ecthelion

[Magestar]

No one else is even thinking about voting for frozen, and I really think we should vote for Echthelion, for lack of a better option, and because I feel like Mark is someone we can just kill later.  Plus, I'm not too suspicious of him RN, and some things that are going on make me think we really should lynch Ecth.

@Metacognition, @Doctor12, if the rest of us vote for Ecth, you two are going to have to change your votes.  I don't really like this either; This reeks of a massive bandwagon to me, and I would suggest lynching Frozen or Mark next, but I think that this vote should be unanimous.   Ecth, I'll be canceling your vote so that nothing bad happens, and I'm letting people know this ahead of time so that there will be no confusion.

8 hours ago, Metacognition said:

EDIT: 
I also found this while going back through the game: 

Quote

I'm surprised whoever lost their Breath hasn't spoken up yet. I wonder if that means it's one of the inactive players, or if someone's keeping quiet for in case they are a Potential Returned.

Considering that we now know that it was either Silverblade or Deathclutch, is it just me or does Luckat seem to be fairly omniscient so far this game? Like far more than she has any right to be. 

This could also be a coincidence.  But I also feel like this whole thing with Mark is turning into a giant IKYK, and it's driving me crazy.  It would also be nice if more than half of our players were actually active.  -sigh-

I'm actually open to voting for mark.  I'll come back in a while and go over my thoughts, but I really am confused right now.

[Conquestor]

How about we lynch Mark next cycle, I mean, someone probably has a rope at this point, so, whoever has a rope can use it on him. 

[Magestar]

Can we get someone to do that?  I'd do it myself, but I don't have a rope yet.  I forgot to enter the lottery last cycle.  

[Dalinar Kholin]

Its fine if they keep there votes on Mark, if the returned stop us voting for Ecth, then we'll kill Mark (who we were highly suspicious of) instead. I will argue, however, that Meta is working hard for Mark, and Luckat for Ecthilleon. We should keep an eye out for which one ends up being returned. 

[Mark IV]

10 hours ago, Doctor12 said:

The sticking point here is Mark. We're confused on whether Mark is suspicious, or too suspicious to be suspicious. I honestly don't know, but Meta is right that the rabbit kill occurred the night after Mark was saved. It might be coincidence, but there might be a link as well. I'm ditching my vote for Lopen and going with Mark.

So, you're saying that just because I was saved, there was a rabbit kill? It doesn't really mean anything if I live and there's a rabbit kill. It just means that whoever has a rabbit isn't dead, not that I have a rabbit. 

 

Meta 

I know I should be voting with the majority, but at this point, I think it's be better to voice my own opinions rather than flow with the majority that wants to kill me. so, first off, there's no response to my response to his suspicion on me that he posted last day turn. It might just be that he missed it, but I doubt it. It was as long as his own post (because I'd quoted his whole post). So, it would have been better if he'd atleast acknowledged it and tried to work out suspicions, but no. He seems too adamant on getting me lynched. 

Secondly, he seems to be turning a blind eye to the fact that this might be a ploy on the eliminators end to make me seem suspicious for no reason. Again, killing two villagers with one stone (more like 5 ropes And yes, I'm being nonchalant because I think it's been two days since the threat of death has hung over me, and I'm sort of used to it by now.). As I've said before, when have you seen the eliminators make such an obvious ploy in broad daylight? Sure it may have been to save the supposed lifeless rabbit I have, but as frozen kindly pointed out (thank you frozen. I hadn't thought of it that way), why place your eggs in one basket? Someone else could have more easily done the phishing - looming at the vast number of new players, someone new could have probably pulled it off without accruing suspicion. 

Anyways, Meta seems to me to be tunneling here. Atleast that's my opinion. If I die, be sure to keep an eye on him and lopen. I sort of trust Ecthelion as the eliminators had no guarantee on the first night cycle that he would survive if he turned drab. Lopen seems suspicious. Magestar, not so much, particularly because it was Araris who saved him from the lynch D1, who turned out to be good. 

That's all for now.

[Straw]

Adding a vote to Ecthelion. 

[Magestar]

29 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Anyways, Meta seems to me to be tunneling here.

I think the biggest reason I have for voting for Ecth is that a lot of the people who I think are Elims are against it.  With the Exception of Frozen, and possibly Mark, although Mark seems mostly just to not want to be lynched by Meta.

I am not super worried about what is going to happen, as I am reasonably sure it won't bother the village too much.  Ecth, have you entered the lottery since you got the breath needed to survive?

[Mark IV]

@Magestar

Is that quote relevant?

[Magestar]

Vaguely...  I actually don't remember why I put it there.  I think it's because a few people do seem to be tunneling on you, and I think it seems like a desperate Elim sort of thing, even from Meta, who I did not fully trust to begin with.  I really hope Ecth is an Elim, and that I'm not wasting time and energy fighting Meta.

[Mark IV]

Heh... the irony here... the more I say I'm done with dealing with this situation, the more I'm drawn to solve this tangle and extricate myself from its depths. 

(sorry. This was almost an OOG comment. But anyways...)

[Dalinar Kholin]

 

2 hours ago, Mark IV said:

So, you're saying that just because I was saved, there was a rabbit kill? It doesn't really mean anything if I live and there's a rabbit kill. It just means that whoever has a rabbit isn't dead, not that I have a rabbit. 

 

Meta 

I know I should be voting with the majority, but at this point, I think it's be better to voice my own opinions rather than flow with the majority that wants to kill me. so, first off, there's no response to my response to his suspicion on me that he posted last day turn. It might just be that he missed it, but I doubt it. It was as long as his own post (because I'd quoted his whole post). So, it would have been better if he'd atleast acknowledged it and tried to work out suspicions, but no. He seems too adamant on getting me lynched. 

Secondly, he seems to be turning a blind eye to the fact that this might be a ploy on the eliminators end to make me seem suspicious for no reason. Again, killing two villagers with one stone (more like 5 ropes And yes, I'm being nonchalant because I think it's been two days since the threat of death has hung over me, and I'm sort of used to it by now.). As I've said before, when have you seen the eliminators make such an obvious ploy in broad daylight? Sure it may have been to save the supposed lifeless rabbit I have, but as frozen kindly pointed out (thank you frozen. I hadn't thought of it that way), why place your eggs in one basket? Someone else could have more easily done the phishing - looming at the vast number of new players, someone new could have probably pulled it off without accruing suspicion. 

Anyways, Meta seems to me to be tunneling here. Atleast that's my opinion. If I die, be sure to keep an eye on him and lopen. I sort of trust Ecthelion as the eliminators had no guarantee on the first night cycle that he would survive if he turned drab. Lopen seems suspicious. Magestar, not so much, particularly because it was Araris who saved him from the lynch D1, who turned out to be good. 

That's all for now.

You claim that you won't join the majority because they;re after you, but the majority is after Ecth right now. Why are you voting for Meta (yes, you make some good points, but you're vote won't make a difference). We've already seen the power of the elim's and the need to work together, why not vote for Ecth?

[Mark IV]

Because I don't find ecth suspicious at all. I know my vote won't make a difference, but atleast this way,  people will remember that I voted for Meta,  rather than remain non-committal about it. One lesson I learned it's that a vote still has power, no matter how insignificant it may seem. You need only look to D2 for proof. All the votes that didn't seem to matter in face of the four voted on me suddenly were the ones that mattered. 

 

The majority is after ecth right now. Guess who I suspect they'll be Targetting next day cycle (or even this night cycle). Infact, I believe when meta comes on again, I'll accumulate more votes.

[Young Bard]

Ec3, to try and prevent vote manips, and because I'm more suspicious of him then Mark. I have to go now, though. My analysis will come after rollover.

[Doc12]

Ecthelion Switching my vote to the majority,  as per the agreement. 

Also,  good to see more discussion! 

[Metacognition]

I'm still unconvinced that this isn't just a misdirection, but if not, we don't want them to be able to mess with the vote. Thus, Mark, Ecthelion. 

[TheMightyLopen]

Hey, sorry for my inactivity. I was sick all day yesterday and some of today, and am just starting to recover.

Not sure what the votes look like, but I'll add my vote just in case. Ecthelion.

[Ecthelion III]

You got me, I'm a Returned. Have fun with this riddle:

There are 5 users: Dalinar Kholin, Frozen Mint, Doctor12, Bard, Mark

Each user has a spirit animal: Tiger, Hippopotamus, Walrus, Aarkvark, and Monkey

There are 5 favorite numbers among the users: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

One of my fellow eliminators is the one who has the favorite number of 5.

Clues:

1. The user whose spirit animal is walrus has a favorite number 1 less than Frozen Mint’s favorite number.

2. The user with a favorite number 3 is either Dalinar Kholin or the user with the spirit animal Tiger.

3. The user whose spirit animal is hippopotamus is either Doctor12 or the user with favorite number 3.

4. Bard’s favorite number is less than the favorite number of the user whose spirit animal is Monkey.

5. The 5 different users are: Mark, Frozen Mint, the user with a spirit animal Tiger, the user with favorite number 5, and the user with favorite number 1.

[luckat]

Vote Tally:
Ecthelion (11): luckat, Frozen Mint, Dalinar, Conq, Twei, Magestar2, Straw, Bard, Doctor3, Meta2, Lopen
Mark (1): Meta1, Ecthelion2, Doctor2
Meta (1): Mark
Mint (0): Magestar1
Bard (0): Ecthelion1
Lopen (0): Doctor1

No Vote: Burgundy, Alex, SD, Elodin, Sheep, Daniyah
 

Okay, there’s just a little bit of the day left, and it looks like we’ve consolidated the votes pretty well. Let's make sure we get it at least this good in the future. I'm a bit worried about the people who haven't voted and the lingering votes on others. The Returned showed us last cycle that they could block 5 votes while still having actions open for stealing Breath and using an Awakened Rabbit. That means they have at least 8 action slots as a group (4 members), and it's possible they have more. If they were willing to forgo their night attacks, they would have even more control over the lynch than before.

Also, I’m actually a bit disappointed at how many people leapt on my vote just to pile on early on. While we do need to make sure to have enough votes on someone to keep the Returned from controlling the lynch, and we shouldn’t have extra votes for the Returned to change it to when the day ends, I’d hoped there would be more discussion early on. We can still place votes normally early on, as long as we remember to change them before the day ends.

23 hours ago, Metacognition said:

Sidenote: Luckat, how are you so sure that Deathclutch was the target and Silverblade gave up their breath? It seems to me that it could just as easily be the other way around and that you know more than you're letting on here. 

EDIT: 
I also found this while going back through the game: 

Considering that we now know that it was either Silverblade or Deathclutch, is it just me or does Luckat seem to be fairly omniscient so far this game? Like far more than she has any right to be. 

As Twei explained, it’s not a leap to come to the conclusion that DC was the one targeted by the Returned. He hasn’t been on since 20 minutes into Night 0, and he would have had to send in an order Day 2 to die from it Night 2. So the Returned are the only way he could have become Drab. I sort of mentioned it when I brought it up, but I guess not very clearly.

For the second, I noticed that no one had claimed to lose their Breath, I listed the possible reasons why, and one of the two turned out to be correct. I don’t see how that’s “omniscient”. Can you think of any other reasons it wouldn’t be mentioned than because the target is inactive or because they are choosing not to?

5 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Because I don't find ecth suspicious at all. I know my vote won't make a difference, but atleast this way,  people will remember that I voted for Meta,  rather than remain non-committal about it. One lesson I learned it's that a vote still has power, no matter how insignificant it may seem. You need only look to D2 for proof. All the votes that didn't seem to matter in face of the four voted on me suddenly were the ones that mattered. 

Your vote can make a difference. As the last vote showed us, even one vote on a person can make a difference, especially if the Returned are willing to add a vote at the last minute. While it would be good to see more voting early in the cycle, we can’t afford to leave extra votes on people at the end of the day.

[Elbereth]

Day is Over! Night will be posted momentarily.

[Elbereth]

LG25: Night Three - Rox Felix

Rox stood before the town proudly. “My Breath was stolen, yes, but it was recovered! Or how would I be standing here, when drabs have obviously been systematically killed?”

“Have they been? Only two have died,” said someone suspiciously.

“Well, yes, but more are obviously going to die,” Rox said, waving a hand impatiently. “Just wait and see tonight.”

“I don’t think Rox escaped the drab assassin,” another said. “I think he Returned.”

Rox gasped in shock. “There’s no call for such needless accusations! I am not one of those Idrian Returned! You all know me. Would I join them?”

“If you Returned. If you had no other choice.”

“I would never. Not even if it meant my life.” 

“People will do a lot for their lives,” someone commented quietly. 

“But… you know what? Fine.” And then Rox suddenly shifted. From a small, scrawny-looking man, he grew, his chin becoming sharper, hair lengthening slightly and softening from greasy to merely sleek, eyes darkening, body changing proportion until he was a perfect specimen of manhood. 

“I am Luckstar the Fortunate,” he said richly. “Let’s see you lynch me now. I am your god.”

Silence spread across the square. 

Then, a single voice was clearly heard. “You killed Ryth and Asher!”

Then there was a roar of sound. And none of Rox’s handsomeness protected him from being torn to pieces by a dozen hands. 

---

Ecth was lynched! He was a Idrian Returned!

Night Three has begun. You have 24 hours to send in your actions.

Vote Count
Ecthelion (11): Frozen Mint, Dalinar, Conquestor, Twelfthrootoftwo, Magestar, Straw, Bard, Doctor, Meta, Lopen, Luckat
Mark (1): Ecthelion

Quicklinks

 

Signups
Night Zero
Day One
Night One
Day Two
Night Two
Day Three

Player List

 

1. Luckat (Lularah)
2. Bugsy (Unknown)
3. Araris (Alalar)
4. Assassin in Burgundy (Burganaa)
5. Magestar (Yulis Zorander)
6. The Only Alex
7. Silverblade (Ryth)
8. Conquestor (Lorien)
9. SilverDragon (Jaftar)
10. Mark (Darb)
11. Elodin (Eventeo)
12. Sheep (Kelek)
13. Deathclutch (Asher McClallen)
14. Straw (Pallelae Hominis)
15. Paranoid King (Plathar Ku)
16. Daniyah (Dimsari)
17. Ecthelion (mysterious cloaked figure)
18. Lopen (Talion)
19. Frozen Mint (Shivawn)
20. Dalinar Kholin (Varg)
21. Meta (Cog)
22. Doctor12 (the Healer)
23. Twei (Kolth)
24. Bard (Brick)

Edited August 29, 2016 by Elbereth

[Doc12]

The riddle is fiendish, but here are some initial thoughts. Assuming the riddle is even true,  as in its not purposely set up to implicate a villager, and that it's solvable, here are some thoughts. 

Mark and Mint are cleared for the time being, as the last condition states that tthe users are 1, 5, Mark, Mint and Tiger. Mark and mint cannot be five. 

Now of course I'm going to say I'm a villager, of course I could be lying.what I say next let it be just an assumption in your eyes. I am not an eliminator, so iam not five. That's what any eliminator would say, I concede, so iwon't ask you to take it for granted. Anyway, as I'm innocent, that leaves Bard and Dalinar as prime suspects for me. 

Of course for the rest of you feel free to include me in the list of suspects. But I'm going to be watching these two. Let your strawmen scan one of us three tonight. Bard and Dalinar or me. It might be worth wasting a scan to know I'm telling the truth. 

[Young Bard]

Doctor is the answer to Ecth's puzzle. I hate either/or clauses in that kind of puzzle - it took me five times as long to work that out then it would have otherwise.

Working

I agree that scanning Doctor would be the best choice tonight. If a scanner knows another scanner, I suggest that one arranges to scan Doctor, and the other Mark, as this could be a diversionary tactic.