Long Game 23: The Siege of Luthadel

[Straw]

Sart care to post a bit?

[TheSilverDragon]

I'm more interested in what nyali has to say.

[Nyali]

SD, about what? I mean, it's not a thing to ask in general, but what is it you're even asking me to talk about? The fact that I think we should be trying to find the Spiked and not playing the faction game so closely that we all lose? That looks like a random poke vote, and this late in the game, I'd have expected a bit more in the way of reasoning behind votes.

Think about this. The Spiked now have 5 members. How many members do the other factions now have? 7 deaths so far, and 5 spiked, so the other factions now have (27-12)/4 = 4 members each, on average (not counting the Spiked as being in the other factions). The Spiked are now the largest faction. I think it's time we start voicing suspicions on who is spiked and stop playing the faction game. At least until we get rid of some Spiked and they are no longer the largest "house" in the game. (Or tied for the largest, or nearly the largest, or whatever, I don't know if my faction lists are right, but the point stands regardless.)

[TheSilverDragon]

True, right now I can't really voice my opinions without revealing my faction, so, pokeish vote for right now. 

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Id possibly recommend that factions get all their players to create lists, listing their faction mates from most suspicious to least suspicious and in your docs work out who on average, is considered the most suspicious by your faction. And then maybe nominate that player in thread as the most suspicious from your faction so that if you absolutley have to play the faction game, at least your killing a super sus player right? Just a suggestion. Can ignore if you'd like.  The last part can be optional i guess.  But if your faction all end up agreeing that actually a particular player is likely spiked that could be worth mentioning in thread. 

[Zas678]

I like that idea. What about, when we don't have anyone that we really want lynched, if we had the strongest house say who they're most suspicious of? I know that I'd like to vote for a Cett, and it may as well be one that the Cetts are suspicious of. 

But then again, I doubt the Cett will like this plan much.

So unless they say who they want, I'll go with you Nyali . I'm not sure if you're Spiked, but I know your a good player, and if I was the Inquisitor, I'd want to have you on my team.

[Mailliw73]

I'm again going to go with Burnt. 

[TheSilverDragon]

Do you have a reason why?

[Mailliw73]

47 minutes ago, TheSilverDragon said:

Do you have a reason why?

Not much. Cett's strongest right now, so why not find the Spiked there?

[Straw]

Burnt was voted our LEAST likely to be spiked. Besides you guys should focus on Penrod, you guys are saying that we are the biggest faction but they have as many players and more koloss.

[Arrae]

A while back, Amanuensis expressed suspicion that Nyali was Spiked. Lopen agreed with him. Both are very strong analysts, so strong that people lynched Amanuensis in part because he was a good player not in their faction.

Mailliw, who has played the most games of Sanderson Elimination, wanted Amanuensis dead so much that he wrote several posts of war propaganda in order to lynch Aman. Here, he explains why he did so:

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He's a good player. That's not it though. It's more that I want to hurt his faction and he's the most obvious one in it.

As Nyali said herself,

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Just like you want to protect Aman because he's a good player in your faction, some of us want to get rid of him because he's a good player who isn't in our faction.

Although nobody has tried to lynch Lopen for his faction, he is still a very good player. Last month, he caught three out of four eliminators the first Night of LG21.

They were suspicious of Nyali because she helped lynch Orlok, her own teammate, over Amanuensis. Here is her explanation:

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Okay, I really hate doing this because Penrod is hurting right now, but if Orlok really is spiked, gotta cut out the cancer asap. Can always send a coinshot after Aman - his faction doesn't have a Lurcher, and Penrod does. Or, we can just lynch Aman next turn. So...
[ Aman ] and [ Orlok ]  

 

It is possible that Nyali truly believed Orlok was Spiked. I call that crem. She’s a better player than that. Lopen and Amanuensis thought so too. When Bard asked how Aman had managed to make Nyali vote for Orlok, Lopen said Nyali was probably Spiked and knew she could take out two innocents that way. Aman agreed.

 

Upon later reflection, Aman said that he got the evil vibe from Nyali and could see her doing what Lopen said.

And after Joe revealed himself as a smoker, Aman said that unless Joe was a Penrod, he suspected Nyali heavily. He also said that he would bring it up, if he hadn't already made his last post inthread.

All of these things were said in the Venture doc, so you know that these are honest readings. There is no reason for them to have tricked their factionmates with these readings, since they were not Spiked.

After Orlok’s death, Nyali did exactly what Aman and Lopen had predicted: she called for Aman’s death.

 

 

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Well, I think it's clear that Aman is spiked. He's likely the inquisitor. He probably has a way to survive a kill tonight.

Of course, now we know that Amanuensis was no Inquisitor. Interesting that Nyali would jump to that conclusion, instead of thinking that he was a villager who lied to save his life.

You know Amanuensis is a good player. In fact, he is such a good player that some of you lynched Amanuensis -- partially because he was a good player not in your faction, and partially to punish him for having the audacity to save himself from being lynched, because he was a good player not in your faction. You cannot say that Amanuensis is a good enough player to lynch, but not a good enough player to listen to. If you kill someone because of the high pedestal you put him on, you cannot ignore that his high pedestal comes in part from his uncannily accurate analysis.

I trust Lopen’s and Amanuensis’s readings. I believe that Nyali is Spiked. It is time for us to cut out the cancer now.

Edited July 12, 2016 by Arraenae
Not allowed to copy and paste out of doc

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Are you actually allowed to c/p from your doc to the thread?? That seems an awful lot like c/p'ing pms into thread. And ren is strict about c/p'ing rules. Methinks that perhaps you should be paraphrasing Rae...

[Arrae]

Fixed now. Thank you for pointing that out.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Still having Interent troubles, again, they should be resolved by tomorrow, but I'm using McDonald's Wifi right now, so I finally got to read the whole thread. I agree with Arraenae, and will cast my vote on Nyali.  Since it was asked, I'm not Penrod. Nor am I Venture. I no longer distrust the payer I was previously talking about, especially considering the high number of spikings that have happened.

[Nyali]

Well, there's a simple reason why I voted for Orlok that has nothing to do with the Spiked. Orlok wasn't on my team. See, I'm not actually in Penrod. I don't know why Penrod hasn't called me out, but I just kinda ran with it when someone mistakenly placed me there. I couldn't stop laughing when someone decided I was the "face of Penrod," but no one from Penrod apparently cared to clarify. I figured even if Orlok wasn't actually Spiked, people would go for Aman next anyway, and we'd get two out-of-faction kills. The more kills out of faction, the better we are off in the faction game. I *was* hoping that Orlok was spiked though, and annoyed when he wasn't.

And, I already explained that "clearly spiked" thing a while back - it was a visceral reaction to Aman lying about Orlok being spiked. I was honestly annoyed by that, and that was the very first thing I thought and posted upon the writeup going up. I later recanted and said, thinking about it, Aman probably isn't spiked, but someone willing to lie like that was a detriment to the rest of the village. I still stand by that sentiment.

So, well, feel free to vote for me, but your arguments as they stand are based on a faulty premise. Yes, I helped get two people killed - they weren't in my faction, and it did help our faction in the faction game.

[Arrae]

Alright. You a Lekal or a Cett, then? If you're a Cett, that's yet another reason to lynch you, for those playing the faction game.

Edited July 12, 2016 by Arraenae
Deleted a word

[Alvron]

8 minutes ago, Nyali said:

Well, there's a simple reason why I voted for Orlok that has nothing to do with the Spiked. Orlok wasn't on my team. See, I'm not actually in Penrod. I don't know why Penrod hasn't called me out, but I just kinda ran with it when someone mistakenly placed me there. I couldn't stop laughing when someone decided I was the "face of Penrod," but no one from Penrod apparently cared to clarify. I figured even if Orlok wasn't actually Spiked, people would go for Aman next anyway, and we'd get two out-of-faction kills. The more kills out of faction, the better we are off in the faction game. I *was* hoping that Orlok was spiked though, and annoyed when he wasn't.

We didn't call you out because we wanted people to think you are Penrod.  Odds are you would be the one attacked if a coinshot/mistborn went after Penrod.  You were our meat-shield.

4 hours ago, Straw said:

Besides you guys should focus on Penrod, you guys are saying that we are the biggest faction but they have as many players and more koloss.

Now that's a lie and you know it.  We have lost two members and Cett has lost one.  So unless you started with 6 you have more than us.  And I'm fairly sure you have more Koloss too.

[cloudjumper]

Sart (1): Straw

Nyali (4): SD, Joe, Rae, Zas

Burnt (1): Maill

[Arrae]

Hmm. @Nyali, now I'm wondering whether what Alv says is actually true. Are you a Penrod, or aren't you? Are you and Alv lying, or are you two actually telling the truth? Is Alv a Spiked trying to save you, or isn't he? I suppose we shall have our answers at the end of the Day, unless you soothe a vote away from you.

@Alvron, Nyali has lost all her use as a meat-shield now. Why don't you vote on her? Deprive a non-Penrod faction of another member. And, Kelsier willing, deprive the Spiked of a star player and soother. It's a win for you no matter what happens.

Edited July 12, 2016 by Arraenae
Added a mention

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

@Alvron, Nyali has lost all her use as a meat-shield now. Why don't you vote on her? Deprive a non-Penrod faction of another member. And, Kelsier willing, deprive the Spiked of a star player and soother. It's a win for you no matter what happens.

Too early.  I'll place my vote about 2 hours before rollover.

[Araris Valerian]

Haha, I just noticed in the writeup, "The Inquisitor rolled their eyes." That must have been a sight to see.

Anyway, a couple things I have noticed so far in this discussion:

I am going to hazard that Nyali is in Cett, since Straw seems determined to divert attention from her to Penrod. Straw, could you please tell us, if Burnt is your faction's least suspect player, then who is the most suspected?

Secondly, it seems that most of the suspicion on Nyali comes from things that have been demonstrated to be false. So I'm going to wait to place my vote a bit longer.

I'm honestly surprised that none of the factions have offered inactive players for the lynch. I guess that means that likely there aren't any in Cett, since the general group opinion seems to be to lynch a member of Cett.

And that is most of what I can say without revealing my faction, although I probably shouldn't be bothering, since I'm obviously a Penrod :D.

[Straw]

If everyone reveals their factions most suspected player. Then I will reveal our most suspected.

[Young Bard]

I'd like to post for great and glorious reasons, but it's quarter to one in the morning, so I'll stick a vote on Burnt.

My reasoning is mainly factional, I have to be honest. Cett is by far the most powerful faction right now, as they've only lost one player, and they haven't lost any koloss whatsoever yet.

The thing is, there's been very little opposition to lynching Nyali, which I would expect if she were genuinely spiked. Lekal has also lost one player (which is where I'm guessing Nyali's from if not Penrod), but they have less koloss. (BTW, you could be a little more courteous, Cett/Penrod. We did you a favor there ) Although it's also possible - quite likely if she is in fact spiked - that they either don't want to defend Nyali, or are just bussing her to soft clear themselves.

I should be on a couple of hours before rollover, if everything goes to plan. So I might change my mind when I'm thinking with more than three brain-cells (or my faction mates yell at me about a lack of solidarity. That's also a possibility.)

Edited July 12, 2016 by The Young Bard
Added in clarifications...

[Nyali]

I'm honestly concerned about Alvron. I really don't get why Penrod let me continue like I was, but I'm starting to think it was to confuse matters even more. By having me as a meat shield, all of Penrod's members were protected. What better way to protect spiked in a smaller faction? I'll also point out that Penrod has been hoarding Koloss. They didn't attack anyone last night (we checked) despite insinuating that they were going to hit Cett. Someone did hit Cett - I don't know who, but whomever it was, you didn't get the support from Penrod you were expecting. Why stay so defensive? Because the Spiked don't want Koloss attacks to go through. Random deaths can hit them. Cett hoarded last night because we were afraid of being attacked by 2-3 houses at once. What's Penrod's excuse?

So, yeah, [ Alvron ].

[Arrae]

Very well. Nyali, I'm tempted to lynch you for being a good player and who isn't in my faction, but I don't want to continue that precedent anymore. I want to play against people who are better than me and learn, rather than be in an artificially levelled playing field. Vengeance is not worth keeping this precedent.

Nyali.