theory An Possible Explanation for Taravangian's Diagram

[The One Who Connects]

On 5/3/2017 at 2:17 PM, Radiant_Jaeger said:

Also I think cultivation already put her chips on the knights Radiant side of things, what with Wyndle and Lift

Taravangian went to the Nightwatcher about 2 years prior to when Lift did, assuming I've got the dates correct. It's entirely possible that the "Day of Brilliance" happened before/around the same time Wyndle joined Lift.

On 5/3/2017 at 2:17 PM, Radiant_Jaeger said:

So would this compassionate ideas be simple ethics by which the Diagrammists should act? Ex: Do no harm. The ends do not justify the means etc.?

I more meant it as a general thing, like social/political ideas that idealists come up with that a realist could shoot some holes in. But yea some of his stuff could be simple ethics.

On 5/3/2017 at 1:56 PM, red032 said:

hate does not wait, does not conspire [...] (and, until now, is the only shard that can splinter others).

Not sure about conspiring, but Hatred definitively allows for patience. That's what makes it different from blind rage, where all you see is red.

Also, Ruin's smothering of Preservation put him at risk of being splintered. So Odium might be the only one who knows how, but he isn't the only one who can.

[Radiant_Jaeger]

On 5/5/2017 at 10:06 AM, The One Who Connects said:

Taravangian went to the Nightwatcher about 2 years prior to when Lift did, assuming I've got the dates correct. It's entirely possible that the "Day of Brilliance" happened before/around the same time Wyndle joined Lift.

I more meant it as a general thing, like social/political ideas that idealists come up with that a realist could shoot some holes in. But yea some of his stuff could be simple ethics.

Not sure about conspiring, but Hatred definitively allows for patience. That's what makes it different from blind rage, where all you see is red.

Also, Ruin's smothering of Preservation put him at risk of being splintered. So Odium might be the only one who knows how, but he isn't the only one who can.

Do you think Lift will reach Taravangian like she did Naln? That would be an amazing turn of events in my opinion because it basically gives the Radiants another theater of operations (Lift Szeth and who knows?!)

[Amaror]

I heavily, heavily doubt that the diagramm was actually done on a "insanely intelligent day". One of the examples of Mr. T's high intelligence is that he thought it a great idea to get dumb people to kill themselves. That might be a logical thing to do, but not a smart thing, since everyone should realize that noone would listen to him. 

If you amplify this kind of cold, calculating logic by an insane degree you would get a person that's very logical, but has no clue how people actually work and do things. Does this sound like the kind of intelligence that could come up with a grand plan on how to manipulate thousands of kingdoms full of people into becoming their one ultimate leader? I don't think so. There's something definetly up with the Diagramm.

[18th Shard]

But if you are that intelligent, you can actually logically extrapolate responses due to a statistical analysis of past experience. If you had intelligence high enough to literally recall every moment of your life  and subconsciously analyze every human interaction you ever observed or were a part of without emotion coloring your point of view, you could theoretically be able to predict the masses' reaction to events fairly easily. The problem lies in the outliers, specific people who act differently such as Dalinar, Kaladin, Shallan, perhaps Jasnah and the Heralds. There it is not a question of what a normal distribution of people having enough people react as you can predict, but in having a single person who has a massive influence. See the concept of Asimov's psychohistory: "Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory). Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms:that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large, and that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses." 

[Calderis]

2 minutes ago, 18th Shard said:

But if you are that intelligent, you can actually logically extrapolate responses due to a statistical analysis of past experience. If you had intelligence high enough to literally recall every moment of your life  and subconsciously analyze every human interaction you ever observed or were a part of without emotion coloring your point of view, you could theoretically be able to predict the masses' reaction to events fairly easily. The problem lies in the outliers, specific people who act differently such as Dalinar, Kaladin, Shallan, perhaps Jasnah and the Heralds. There it is not a question of what a normal distribution of people having enough people react as you can predict, but in having a single person who has a massive influence. See the concept of Asimov's psychohistory: "Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory). Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms:that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large, and that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses." 

Once you are intelligent enough to logically calculate and quantify emotions on a scale and map those responses according to stimulus over the course of a lifetime, all actions and reactions become data for the Super analytical mind.

I agree completely. Although I do think that something beyond pure intellect has influenced the Diagram. 

[Spoolofwhool]

46 minutes ago, 18th Shard said:

Hari Seldon, established two axioms:that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large, and that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses." 

This is precisely why I think the Diagram works compared to his attempts during high intelligent days. Those days, he's directly interfacing with the population and trying to convince them based on the logical analysis he has performed. With the Diagram, he's not bothering to convince people or explain anything. He's just pushing everything forward and manipulating the events, thereby preserving the predictions of the effects of his manipulations. 
Nonetheless, I do agree that some external entity likely did interact with his thought process during this time, perhaps to nudge him towards certain conclusions. The Diagram did also have some realmatic impacts somehow.

[The One Who Connects]

1 hour ago, 18th Shard said:

If you had intelligence high enough to literally recall every moment of your life and subconsciously analyze every human interaction you ever observed or were a part of without emotion coloring your point of view, you could theoretically be able to predict the masses' reaction to events fairly easily.

1 hour ago, Calderis said:

Once you are intelligent enough to logically calculate and quantify emotions on a scale and map those responses according to stimulus over the course of a lifetime, all actions and reactions become data for the Super analytical mind.

Infinity Blade Spoilers (Never imagined I would type that)

Spoiler

The Worker of Secrets embodies this but on an individual scale. He has enough experience interacting with people that he can quite literally predict their every move almost to a tee. He even correctly guessed something Raidriar said before the latter broke into the Worker's Fortress. IIRC, something about "mounting his head on a spike."

Anyway, he's reached the point of classifying people into personality sub-types because of how much analysis he's done. Granted, he's been around for many millennia so he gets to be beyond the norm.

---

Edit: forgot to put my point: It's something that has precedent in Brandon's writings, even though it wasn't Cosmere. Perhaps this is how he's bringing that concept into the Cosmere, a little bit watered down

 

Edited May 11, 2017 by The One Who Connects

[Ciridae]

I still think the way the Diagram's predictions are described is too close to how experiences in the spiritual realm have been described. I firmly support the theory that Mr. T is drawn closer to the CR on his smart days and closer to the SR on his 'stupid' days. On his stupid days he is Connected strongly to those around him and regrets causing harm.

I think his incredibly smart day was actually an incredibly 'stupid' day, on which he was drawn so far into the SR that he was able to see future developments as a shard would. M:SH spoiler:

Spoiler

Not unlike what Kelsier was granted by Preservation before heading out to find the Ire.

 

[Spoolofwhool]

2 hours ago, Ciridae said:

I think his incredibly smart day was actually an incredibly 'stupid' day, on which he was drawn so far into the SR that he was able to see future developments as a shard would. M:SH spoiler:

We have specific confirmation that Taravangian was operating with increased intelligence on the day.

Quote

"Q: Can tapping enough Feruchemical zinc allow one to match Taravangian's intellect on the day he created the Diagram? Or are the effects different somehow?
 
A: The effects are similar, but not exactly the same. Zinc is speed of thought specifically--while what happens to Taravangian increases multiple types of intelligence, not just raw 'processing power' so to speak."

[Source]

 

[Krandacth]

2 hours ago, Spoolofwhool said:

We have specific confirmation that Taravangian was operating with increased intelligence on the day.

 

As I have pointed out before, this could be an extremely Aes Sedai answer, answering the intent behind the question given the obvious assumption made by its asker, rather than the actual question asked.  My reason for this (other than believing more as @Ciridae does) is that Brandon says "what happens to Taravangian" rather than "what happened", i.e. "whenever he has heightened intelligence, the effect is similar to tapping zinc," rather than confirming that "on the day of the Diagram he had heightened intelligence."

Also, technically "tapping enough zinc" to match someone of lower intellectual speed than yourself would just mean tapping a negative amount, e.g. storing it. That means that the answer can still be taken at more face value, whilst still being a little Aes Sedai: on the day of the Diagram Taravangian gained a negative increase to his intelligence in a similar way to a zinc ferring tapping a negative amount of zinc.

[The One Who Connects]

8 hours ago, Krandacth said:

Also, technically "tapping enough zinc" to match someone of lower intellectual speed than yourself would just mean tapping a negative amount, e.g. storing it. That means that the answer can still be taken at more face value, whilst still being a little Aes Sedai: on the day of the Diagram Taravangian gained a negative increase to his intelligence in a similar way to a zinc ferring tapping a negative amount of zinc.

I'm going to object to the semantics of this, mostly because I don't like the phrase "tapping a negative amount," and I don't think Brandon would consider storing as "tapping a negative amount" off the top of his head for a question like this.

Dodging the question by saying that "a smart day is similar to tapping Zinc" sure, but pulling "Add negative 2" on the definition of an existing term in both the Cosmere and the English language?

---

Quote

"Q: Can tapping enough Feruchemical zinc allow one to match Taravangian's intellect on the day he created the Diagram? Or are the effects different somehow?
 
A: The effects are similar, but not exactly the same. Zinc is speed of thought specifically--while what happens to Taravangian increases multiple types of intelligence, not just raw 'processing power' so to speak."

[Source]

I personally see it as him saying that the effects of tapping Zinc and the effect on Taravangian's Intellect are similar, but not exactly the same.
Due to the fact that I define the effect of tapping Zinc as increasing mental speed, I think the Diagram was made on a "good day," whether or not Brandon dodged directly stating that in his answer.

[Radiant_Jaeger]

5 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

I'm going to object to the semantics of this, mostly because I don't like the phrase "tapping a negative amount," and I don't think Brandon would consider storing as "tapping a negative amount" off the top of his head for a question like this.

Dodging the question by saying that "a smart day is similar to tapping Zinc" sure, but pulling "Add negative 2" on the definition of an existing term in both the Cosmere and the English language?

---

I personally see it as him saying that the effects of tapping Zinc and the effect on Taravangian's Intellect are similar, but not exactly the same.
Due to the fact that I define the effect of tapping Zinc as increasing mental speed, I think the Diagram was made on a "good day," whether or not Brandon dodged directly stating that in his answer.

Does this mean Mr T has to make up for his day of brilliance with more stupid days.

[+Extesian]

5 minutes ago, Radiant_Jaeger said:

Does this mean Mr T has to make up for his day of brilliance with more stupid days.

Yep his intelligence varies according to a probability curve

Quote

QUESTION

Is there a pattern to Taravangian's stupid/smart cycle, or is it actually random?

BRANDON SANDERSON

His aides are convinced that it is random, but if you plotted it out, it's really a distribution curve that is only made to look random

 

[The One Who Connects]

Just now, Radiant_Jaeger said:

Does this mean Mr T has to make up for his day of brilliance with more stupid days.

You can ask him yourself. He has a page or two deliberating that very point after ..(Mrall?) shows him the chart in WoR.

(Maybe not that exact point, but there's a definite "lower sections of the pyramid are bigger" esque vibe to it)

[Radiant_Jaeger]

6 minutes ago, Extesian said:

Yep his intelligence varies according to a probability curve

 

Not what I meant, but very useful info thanks!, does he have to pay for intelligence with stupidity?

Edited May 13, 2017 by Radiant_Jaeger

[Radiant_Jaeger]

10 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

You can ask him yourself. He has a page or two deliberating that very point after ..(Mrall?) shows him the chart in WoR.

(Maybe not that exact point, but there's a definite "lower sections of the pyramid are bigger" esque vibe to it)

Again I'm wondering whether or not there is a cost to his intelligence as there is with a feruchamist who uses zinc. I e does he pay for intelligence with stupidity

Edit: woops accidentally posted this before

Edited May 13, 2017 by Radiant_Jaeger

[The One Who Connects]

1 minute ago, Radiant_Jaeger said:

Again I'm wondering whether or not there is a cost to his intelligence as there is with a feruchamist who uses zinc. I e does he pay for intelligence with stupidity

Given the inverse relation, I would go so far as to say that he pays for his intelligence with his compassion and vice-versa.

He sells his soul compassion in order to gain intelligence, and does the opposite to gain it back.

Probability curve or not, Brandon has written it in a way that allows me to compare it to a seesaw, and that's fun

[Radiant_Jaeger]

24 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Given the inverse relation, I would go so far as to say that he pays for his intelligence with his compassion and vice-versa.

He sells his soul compassion in order to gain intelligence, and does the opposite to gain it back.

Probability curve or not, Brandon has written it in a way that allows me to compare it to a seesaw, and that's fun

lol I love that little word that implies so much! And a see saw is less random this is morelikr a seesaw trapped in a hurricane with two people lashed to the seats lol

[Agewalker]

Notice that Taravangian's plan was how mankind could Survive the desolation. He didn't ask how they could Win, or how he could Protect people, but merely how to survive.

The Diagram may say how to survive the Desolation, but in doing so, note that it requires the breaking of every one of the three ideals. It involves killing rather than protecting, sacrificing the weak to preserve the strong, and ignoring the actions for the sake of the result.

My guess is that if the world followed the diagram perfectly, a small amount of people would survive, but at the cost of their humanity.

This would be similar to the city of Shadar Logoth in WOT, which tried to win against Shai'tan by becoming as harsh as his forces, and in the end, resulted in the deaths of everyone in the city, and the creation of an evil so powerful that even Trollocs fear to enter.

Edited May 13, 2017 by Agewalker

[Radiant_Jaeger]

4 hours ago, Agewalker said:

Notice that Taravangian's plan was how mankind could Survive the desolation. He didn't ask how they could Win, or how he could Protect people, but merely how to survive.

The Diagram may say how to survive the Desolation, but in doing so, note that it requires the breaking of every one of the three ideals. It involves killing rather than protecting, sacrificing the weak to preserve the strong, and ignoring the actions for the sake of the result.

My guess is that if the world followed the diagram perfectly, a small amount of people would survive, but at the cost of their humanity.

This would be similar to the city of Shadar Logoth in WOT, which tried to win against Shai'tan by becoming as harsh as his forces, and in the end, resulted in the deaths of everyone in the city, and the creation of an evil so powerful that even Trollocs fear to enter.

In relation to this do you think that Odium gains influence over him when he's at max intelligence and his compassion comes from Cultivation perhaps?

[Agewalker]

22 minutes ago, Radiant_Jaeger said:

In relation to this do you think that Odium gains influence over him when he's at max intelligence and his compassion comes from Cultivation perhaps?

It's possible, but I don't see why the Nightwatcher, (Either Cultivation, or her servant) would give Odium a connection to a person.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Agewalker