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As I'm probably dying tonight, I want to announce that I have an Emotion Bracelet and no idea who to use it on as my last action. Any suggestions? And Maill, is destroyed Shardplate given to the Ghostbloods if they do decide to kill DC? (It wouldn't work RPwise) If not, your fear for your life, DC, I assure you, unlike mine, is unfounded.

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I will point out that DC appears to have known that Wilson had unbroken Shardplate, and therefore knew she wouldn't die, and knew he wouldn't die because he also had plate. But, that doesn't explain why he'd issue the duel, especially since it forced a confrontation between him and someone who very clearly indicated she didn't want to interact directly with him, if possible, due to out of game reasons. I want to believe there was an in-game reason for DC's decision, but I can't see one.

 

The only in-game reasons are:

  • DC is Ghostblood, knew he wouldn't die as a result of the duel, and wanted to force a vote between someone on many people's trust lists and himself, keeping any Ghostbloods from being lynched.
  • DC is Ghostblood and so is Trelagist, and DC wanted to protect Trelagist from a lynch (duel was declared right after the second vote on Trelagist).
  • DC is Noble and is certain Wilson is a Ghostblood, but is lying about thinking she's Noble for some reason.
  • DC is Noble and knows for certain that Trelagist is a Noble as well and wanted to protect Trelagist from a lynch.

 

None of those make any sense to me in the context of what I've seen. The out of game reasons would be:

  • DC was bored.
  • DC wanted to harass Wilson.
  • DC had the ability to declare a duel and wanted to use it, just because.

 

------

 

Twei, I don't think it was super obvious that Trelagist had the bow. You had to know (and remember) Orlok's item creation action was redirected and still went through, know that the item was a Grandbow, and guess that it had been used. On top of that, using a Grandbow does not make one innately suspicious, especially when they attack a person they voted to lynch. I don't think Trelagist using the bow indicates anything one way or the other - he could be Noble and really think that Wilson is Ghostblood, or he could be a Ghostblood.

 

------

 

So, what should we do about the person we voted as our lynch target during the day? Do we say "any Noble with a Shardblade, attack Trelagist because we voted for him, but if you have a Grandbow, don't attack Trelagist because the Ghostbloods have multiple Painrials from kills (I think?) and the Grandbow would only go through if Trelagist was actually a Noble"? The downside to that is if we don't have a Noble with a Shardblade, Trelagist wouldn't get attacked. If we assume that there's a chance there's a Noble out there with a Shardblade who just hasn't used it yet, then there's a fair chance we do have a Noble with a Shardblade, either Joe's heir or the cautious Noble.

 

There is one flaw I see to this plan. The order of operations was amended such that Artifabrians go before kills, so if there's a second Ghostlbood Artifabrian and Trelagist is a Ghostblood, they could create a half-shard for Trelagist before the Shardblade kill would go off. But, if Trelagist is a Noble, chances are no one will do that for him (though he might already have a half-shard).

 

I dunno. I'm trying to figure out how whichever Nobles have weapons can attack in a way that's not going to succeed only if Trelagist is actually a noble, but fail if he's a Ghostblood. Or rather, a way that has an equal probability of killing Trelagist regardless of his loyalties, rather than being more likely to succeed if he's a Noble and less likely if he's Ghostblood. (I don't see any possible way to arrange it such that it's more likely to work if he's Ghostblood and less likely if he's a Noble.)

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Nyali, if you don't mind me asking, how would DC be certain of my innocence if he's a Noble himself?

Edit: And if so, why am I in his suspicion-list?

 

Err, that was exactly my point. None of the four possibilities I listed are plausible, in my opinion.

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My bad then. In her PM with me, Wilson said she knew I had gotten Orlok's item and asked me what it was. How would she know the former, but not the latter? Emotion bracelet?

Edit: I might be the most aggressive on Wilson, but not about the duel.

Edited by Trelagist
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Well the only way to find out is to have one of the duelees die.

Anybody have the time to trawl through the game and see who has posted about this whole DC v Wilson the most? And the second most? Etc etc.

Not complaining if no-one has the time, but it would be quite useful :P

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Twei, another way to look at this is... actually, I think I'll make a scenario list.

1) Ghostbloods have another artifabrian | Trelagist is evil

In this case, there is a possibility that trek himself is the artifabrian. And if he doesn't in fact die, it would, mean he is most likely ghostblood.

2) Ghostbloods have a second artifabrian | Trelagist is not evil

Refer to case 4

3) No second artifabrian | Trelagist is evil

Long story short, he'll die unless they have a half shard or some other shield not from an artifabrian.

4) No artifabrian | Trelagist is not evil

He'll die. It'll act like a lynch. In fact, it would act exactly like a lynch where we decided to kill Trelagist.

Either way, this all hinges on whether we in fact have a vigilante willing to work with us. On further thought, I feel this isn't quite probable. But, atleast we got some discussion out of that.

EDIT: Everyone, I think I found a other artifabrian! Look at Stink's Rep!

Note: This is a joke. Do NOT take this seriously.

Edited by Mark IV
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Couple comments I meant to make last cycle but forgot:

The Soulcaster who redirected Orlok's item creation action to Trelagist. The weird thing here is that if they targeted "role action," they couldn't have known if it would be a spy action, an Artifabrian action, a thief action, or a GB kill. Most of those are negative actions, only the Artifabrian action is positive, and one of them is a kill. On night two, if Orlok had performed the GB kill, it isn't clear if the kill AND the item creation would have been redirected or just a random one (I think it was a random one). So, the redirect is weird, but there is no reason for a GB to redirect another GB's role action. Unless they were going for misdirection, but the chances of that coming out and helpishe'ng create trust for a GB is so slight, it makes no sense. If the redirector is a GB, then Trel has to be a GB and it was just a bit of misdirection (pun intended). If the redirector was a Noble (which makes much more sense), then it says nothing about Trel except that it is almost certain Trel isn't the Soulcaster who did the redirect, since if the redirector was noble, they couldn't have known they weren't redirecting a kill, and who would take a chance of redirecting a killing or thievery to themselves? So, I think the Soulcaster is a Noble, because otherwise, I just can't see the gamble of the GBs working out as more beneficial than redirecting a random Noble's kill/spy/thievery/etc to another random Noble.

I agree with this for the most part, but I wanted to point out that if Trel is a GB, I'd argue not that the redirecter was a Noble, necessarily, but that they were made up to explain why Trel got the Grandbow. However, I don't know anything about the redirection claims, so maybe there's something that proves the Soulcaster is indeed real?

Let's check the probabilities real quick using some rough ballpark numbers, rounding wildly and assuming everything has an equal chance. ~4 players in ~30 are GB so there's a ~15% chance any given person is GB. 1 GB has died, leaving ~3 GBs, so there's a ~33% chance that a specific GB performed the GB kill. There are 17 people still alive, the heir wasn't Wilson, and it wasn't Twei because Joe tried to kill Twei. So, 1 in 15 chance of any given person being the heir, which is a ~7% chance. There's a 50% chance that the GB's N3 killer has Joe's Shardblade and a 50% chance GB's heir has it. So, the final probability is (0.15*0.33*0.50+0.07*0.50) = 6%.

Not really an important point, but I'd put the evil team at more like 5 members rather than four. (Unless it has more than one experienced player on it. Which is possible, given the number that are playing this game.)

Stuff regarding this cycle:

Nyali, I can think of one other in-game reason for DC to declare a duel: Information. To try to get everyone to pick a side and get something more to analyze. For instance, if the GBs don't have Joe's Shardblade, I'd expect more of them to have voted for DC than for Wilson, because they wanted a chance to get that Shardblade.

(I mostly thought of this because of Maill's Thaidakar gambit in MR10, for those that remember that.)

Now, do I think that's really his reasoning? I don't know. I don't know if he thought it through that much. But it's still a possibility, and one worth bringing up.

DC, my question to you (other than "why do you think Wilson is innocent and when did that change?") would be why you suspect Kas. I can understand you suspecting me, I guess, since there's been some suspicion placed on me. (Which, as I understand it, is mostly gut and me being more helpful than suspicious of people. Is that correct?) But Kas hasn't even been around for a few days, and he didn't post much before that. What are you seeing from him that makes him so suspicious?

Also, I'm probably going to go dark for a couple days because of three standardized tests in the next three days and half a textbook to read. I'll still respond to PMs, but I likely won't be posting. Sorry! I'll definitely try to post by end of Day 5, if I'm alive.

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I don't have time to read, but the other option is DC and Wilson are both GB. They both can take a hit, so they waste a lynch cycle for the villagers.

Don't think it's likely, but possible l.

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In that case, why waste a hit on your plate? Why make it public that both of you even have a plate?

Probably to stop something from happening due to the lynch - saving Trelagist. Which would mean Trelagist is also evil.

But, Wilson voted for Trelagist twice - once in red (before the duel) and once in orange. Which would indicate she wants him dead.

Hence contradicting that she wants him alive.

Hence our assumption is wrong.

Hence this case becomes impossible.

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I was about to tell everyone how I'd be inactive the next 2 days because of exams, but then I realized: I'm going to be dead in a couple of hours. I still haven't decided between posting a troll RP as my Death Rattle or a spiteful "I told you!"

Edit: Yup, I'm bitter

Edited by Trelagist
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In that case, why waste a hit on your plate? Why make it public that both of you even have a plate?

Probably to stop something from happening due to the lynch - saving Trelagist. Which would mean Trelagist is also evil.

But, Wilson voted for Trelagist twice - once in red (before the duel) and once in orange. Which would indicate she wants him dead.

Hence contradicting that she wants him alive.

Hence our assumption is wrong.

Hence this case becomes impossible.

The only other thing would be to create trust for the other person. Build up an animosity throughout the game, then being that to a breaking point, so that when one of them dies and is evil, no one thinks the other is also a GB.

It's something I would do...

*EDIT* it pretty much creates a huge trust for the one who lives.

Edited by Macen
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Notice:

Sorry, guys, due to some RL circumstances, I'm going to extend each of the next two turns and this one, by 24 hours.

So, Night 4, this one, will end Thursday at 9pm MST, 29 hours from now. Day 5 will end Sunday at 9, Night 5 will end Tuesday at 9.

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Posting in the evenings is often hard for me because of our Little Brightness. Ever try holding an infant in one hand while typing on your phone with your other hand? It's pretty hilarious what comes out, I'll admit, especially when she tries to steal the phone and eat it.

 

Is there anyone who needs to get in touch with me via PMs tonight?

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I mean, I'm always down for more PMs with people, but I don't have a spanreed.

 

If you happen to have one, I'd love to talk with you. If not, then that's fine too.

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Posting in the evenings is often hard for me because of our Little Brightness. Ever try holding an infant in one hand while typing on your phone with your other hand? It's pretty hilarious what comes out, I'll admit, especially when she tries to steal the phone and eat it.

 

Is there anyone who needs to get in touch with me via PMs tonight?

I wouldn't mind a chat with you. :)

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So two nights ago, two people sent me Spanreeds. Joe and someone else. I've already mentioned this in the thread, but if that second person is a Noble, I'd really appreciate it if you could let me know in our PM. If you don't, I'll have to assume it was a Ghostblood spanreed that they were trying to get rid of. This is kind of important even if it doesn't seem like it is. I assume the person is still alive, since that's information that should probably go in a deathcry. If you could let me know, that would be much appreciated. Thanks!

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Posting in the evenings is often hard for me because of our Little Brightness. Ever try holding an infant in one hand while typing on your phone with your other hand? It's pretty hilarious what comes out, I'll admit, especially when she tries to steal the phone and eat it.

 

Is there anyone who needs to get in touch with me via PMs tonight?

If you have a spanreed, add me to the list please.

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Day 5: Dual Stabbing

Trelagist walked confidently through the dark, holding aloft an infused sphere to light his way. He hummed something, a sprightly little tune that his sister used to love.

His mood darkened at the thought of his sister. The image or her broken little body on the floor rose up against his will, bloody and so very still. But instead of trying to push away the image as usual, he fixed upon it, holding it firm in his mind. This. This was why he was here.

"I will have my revenge," he said to the enclosing darkness outside his little bubble of light.

There were twin, silent intakes of breath on either side of him. Then two Shardblades appeared, driving through either side of his chest and just stopping short of the other's hand.

As Trelagist sank to the ground, each wielder let go of their Blade in surprise. Then they turned, almost synchronized, and ran, each dismissing the Blade from Trelagist's chest. Perhaps both had been willing to murder Trelagist before he could fight back, but neither was ready to meet another murderer face-to-face.


Trelagist was stabbed. With two Shardblades. He was a Noble with an Emotion Bracelet.

Someone else was attacked by the Ghostbloods, but didn't die.

Cycle will end in 72 hours.

blu_1462762800.png

Edited by Mailliw73
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