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[Secret History spoilers] Did we just get another Shard named?


PallonianFire

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Again, I still feel that Fortune is not a Shard...
Not to mention how it's referenced in SH:

“Bah,” said a seated man who held a cup of glowing liquid. “You always jump at stories, Alonoe. Not every coincidence is a sign of someone drawing upon Fortune.”

 

It definitely feels as though they are referencing Feruchemical Fortune.



And it just doesn't seem like it fits shardic intent, as Argent said:

I can't reconcile Fortune being a Shard with what we understand about the Shards'... natures. All of the ones we know of are about an action or state of mind. Fortune doesn't fit.

However, in doing my own writing, I did end up thinking more about not only "luck" but "fate" and the determination of Destiny and one's "lot in life."
In doing so I came across a synonym of Fortune/Luck that DOES fit within the grasp of the Shards we know (State of mind/feelings/thoughts/emotions.)

Expectation

There's no ground for it, at all. But for some reason it just clicked
If there is a Shard that revolves around the thought of "Fortune" it would make sense to be Expectation. Especially when you consider how thought has such a strong effect on the Cognitive Realm, the expectation of what the future holds could not only be a powerful force in the cosmere; with every object being, in part, somewhat sentient; but one of the powerful forces. Do we have any cognitive aspects outside of Splinters/Invested/Actual People having a "thought" about the future at all? Do the targets of Soulcasting have any hopes or dreams? Or do they simply function as they have always known?
If "Hope" doesn't end up being a shard, my money is on Expectation.

It's just rampant speculation, but it's relevant to this topic and I didn't quite want to see the argument die, lol.
 

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Hardly means it's Odium. Odium may very well be involved, and we already know that Bavadin and Rayse were buds and have worked together.

 

There's too much that makes sense for Autonomy being "Trell". Too much evidence, including a WoB that I got at the Denver SoS signing. Have to wait til June to post my full theory on it, though.

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Hardly means it's Odium. Odium may very well be involved, and we already know that Bavadin and Rayse were buds and have worked together.

There's too much that makes sense for Autonomy being "Trell". Too much evidence, including a WoB that I got at the Denver SoS signing. Have to wait til June to post my full theory on it, though.

Where can we find that WoB?

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Hardly means it's Odium. Odium may very well be involved, and we already know that Bavadin and Rayse were buds and have worked together.

 

There's too much that makes sense for Autonomy being "Trell". Too much evidence, including a WoB that I got at the Denver SoS signing. Have to wait til June to post my full theory on it, though.

 

Rayse and Bavadin have held their Shards for Eons. Odium is sheer hatred, he is pure selfishness, regardless of what they were in the past i sincerely doubt they are friends any more. He would rather Splinter a Shard and eliminate a rival than kill a rival and take their power because he cannot bear to be changed. I just cannot see this guy having friends, besides everybody was claiming how much Sazed has changed in 300 years holding Pres/Ruin Rayse has held it for thousands of years same with Autonomy/Bavadin.

 

I thought the Shard interfering on Scadrial was Autonomy/Bavadin but when Sazed showed Wax the representation, i just doesn't seem like Autonomy:

 

Wax found that they’d been rounding a planet. They stood high above it, and had stepped from darkness into sunlight, which let Wax see the world below, bathed in a calm, cool light. Beyond that hung a haze of red. All around, pressing in upon the world. He could feel it choking him, a miasma of dread and destruction.

 

The only feasible way in my opinion that Trell would be Autonomy would be if Odium is taking the blunt approach and Autonomy is taking the subtle approach but i highly doubt they are working in consort with each other.

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Rayse and Bavadin have held their Shards for Eons. Odium is sheer hatred, he is pure selfishness, regardless of what they were in the past i sincerely doubt they are friends any more. He would rather Splinter a Shard and eliminate a rival than kill a rival and take their power because he cannot bear to be changed. I just cannot see this guy having friends, besides everybody was claiming how much Sazed has changed in 300 years holding Pres/Ruin Rayse has held it for thousands of years same with Autonomy/Bavadin.

 

I thought the Shard interfering on Scadrial was Autonomy/Bavadin but when Sazed showed Wax the representation, i just doesn't seem like Autonomy:

 

The only feasible way in my opinion that Trell would be Autonomy would be if Odium is taking the blunt approach and Autonomy is taking the subtle approach but i highly doubt they are working in consort with each other.

 

OK, the rest of us will just politely point out the amazing coincidence that both of the shards opposing their Intents most directly were shattered on Sel, and that you would expect Odium would want some backup on his side to shatter two shards at once.

 

Just because Odium hates everything and everyone doesn't mean he can't have an ally of convenience. Likewise, a Shard that sees the other shards as meddling oppressors of their people would probably be very keen to see a lot of them Shattered. There are very straightforward motivations for them to be working together. (Especially if Autonomy has nobody else he's willing to work with to get rid of what he views as the oppressive Shards) They've probably got a big list of targets they'll take out before they part ways.

 

Another thing to consider is what happens to the Voidbringers in their voidforms if Odium does get defeated... ;) It's entirely possible that Odium is only the villain of the first half of the Stormlight Archive. (I'll admit I don't see it as a likely twist narratively speaking, but it is possible...)

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We know that Threnody isn't a primary Shardworld but don't we know (or assume, or think it's likely that...) there is a splinter on it? Since the Elantrians are obviously worried about people from Threnody (possibly shades), it could be that Fortune is the splinter on Threnody.

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I don't think the arguments against Fortune being a Shard hold water. The Intents of Shards so far have been actions, or personality traits?

 

What about Dominion? That's not an action or personality trait. It would be more apt to name the shard "Rule" or "Dominate" if it was just about being in charge. Rather, Dominion's intent seems to be more about the state of a domain, a territory, than any "action" or "personality" ascribed to dominions.

 

Shards are aspects of God, and hold portions of his power. I don't believe the concept or ideal of Fortune would be out of hand for an aspect of godhood. (Many people, even not particularly religious ones, ascribe good fortune to the blessing of a deity. "Oh thank God!")

Edited by NovaSeeker
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Hmm. Looks like we were both right. (This is me pretending to salvage some dignity from actually being wrong).

 

Yeah, I was thinking of definitions 1, 3, 4, and 5. (I knew of 6, a choir of angels, but it seemd irrelevant to the discussion.)

 

I will say that I still think that "Dominion" is not a verb. It's the synonym to a noun form of a verb. That seems like a bunch of semantic hoops to jump through to fit the "only actions or traits" theory. 

 

Has it been confirmed by WoB that Intents are always personality traits or actions? Or is that just the current supposition based on available evidence?

 

Because to me, "Fortune" just feels like it has the right amount of gravitas.

Edited by NovaSeeker
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It's more a question of what that shard will even do I guess. Make people luckier/unluckier as some part of the magic? It's not really luck when it's deliberate, unless there is an actual tangible "luck" in the cosmere he could control, in which case you have really just explained chromium feruchemy and that connection is back.

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It's more a question of what that shard will even do I guess. Make people luckier/unluckier as some part of the magic? It's not really luck when it's deliberate, unless there is an actual tangible "luck" in the cosmere he could control, in which case you have really just explained chromium feruchemy and that connection is back.

 

It could be some sort of probability manipulation. For example, with <insert Stormlight/metal/aon equivalent here> you can drop the chances of a bullet shot at you hitting you, or increase the chances of landing on something soft after falling down. We'd have to see more chromium feuruchemy to have any better idea, though.

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  • 2 weeks later...

It could be some sort of probability manipulation. For example, with <insert Stormlight/metal/aon equivalent here> you can drop the chances of a bullet shot at you hitting you, or increase the chances of landing on something soft after falling down. We'd have to see more chromium feuruchemy to have any better idea, though.

 

 

Basically it means that if you jump off of a building after magiking luck you would land in the dumpster instead of the groud. It wouldn't magically make a few mattresses appear. Unless you were a luck Savant. In that case someone could have previously dumped mattresses in said dumpster previously and your constant burning of luck had them dump them in that particular dumpster. But then that is starting to get into Time manipulation because how would your Luck know you were going to jump into that dumpster a say day in advance?

damnation, luck is confusing.

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It's more a question of what that shard will even do I guess. Make people luckier/unluckier as some part of the magic? It's not really luck when it's deliberate, unless there is an actual tangible "luck" in the cosmere he could control, in which case you have really just explained chromium feruchemy and that connection is back.

 

 If there is a Shard that pulls on the entropy, why not a Shard that plays with the laws of probability?  Think Mat Cauthon from a certain sister universe who always rolls what he needs in dice.  We know that some other processes in Cosmere do follow laws of probability (we've seen a normal distribution somewhere I think, and we've seen Preservation play with what used to be a random process to make it more deterministic).

 

There may be many ways in which Fortune can manifest its properties. Since a person can perform Cosmere "magic" only when Invested, Fortune may choose to grant Investiture to people based on a certain random (or not so random) process.  Imagine getting a very temporary boost to your abilities that comes at random.  This would be doing things Endowment-style - everyone is equally subjected to bouts of Fortune.  Another option (Preservation-style) is to pick certain people and grant them access to Investiture.  Given Brandon's style of magic systems - you'd need some sort of a trigger: so, for example certain people acquire Investiture when they perform certain actions - roll dice, or haggle at a marketplace, or try to catch a fish.  

 

Remember also, that the actual things one can do with granted Investiture need not have anything to do with the Shard's Intent -  why a walking piece of rope is of Endowment, while a flying piece of iron - of Preservation? Similarly, the actual "magic" that Invested by Fortune people can do may be completely unrelated to Fortune/Luck - maybe they can scry, maybe they can fly, maybe they have a mean battle cry.

 

 

(now this is largely me being Devil's advocate - I am actually not that certain that there is a Shard named Fortune there, just thinking out loud what they Shard would do).

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Basically it means that if you jump off of a building after magiking luck you would land in the dumpster instead of the groud. It wouldn't magically make a few mattresses appear. Unless you were a luck Savant. In that case someone could have previously dumped mattresses in said dumpster previously and your constant burning of luck had them dump them in that particular dumpster. But then that is starting to get into Time manipulation because how would your Luck know you were going to jump into that dumpster a say day in advance?

damnation, luck is confusing.

 

I am thinking that it is not what the magic does that is associated with Fortune, but rather how one acquires it. To use Fortune's Invesiture, one must have Connection to it. Perhaps people acquire (temporary) connections by, well, being lucky - winning a lottery, getting a royal flush in poker, not being asked a question they did not know the answer to at a lesson, having an anvil drop to the ground 10 inches away from them.... Now, once they acquire Investiture - they would be able to do pretty much whatever the magic system does - fly, be able to talk to people at long distances, throw fireballs at enemies, etc...  

 

Preservation does not grant some special abilities to Preserve things - in fact, Mistborn have been known to destroy stuff. But people become Mistborn because for one reason or another they get Connected to Preservation.  Ditto, for all other Shards we have seen so far. How people obtain Investiture and who  is granted it is based on the Intent,  but the powers granted are ... well..., whatever Brandon feels is cool...

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Preservation, at no point, actually manipulated any process that was inherently random that he didn't construct himself. The latter meaning that it would've had no reason to be random in the first place. The mists had a strictly systematic procedure.

You have a point with the rest, but I wanted to point that out.

Edited by natc
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Preservation, at no point, actually manipulated any process that was inherently random that he didn't construct himself. The latter meaning that it would've had no reason to be random in the first place. The mists had a strictly systematic procedure.

You have a point with the rest, but I wanted to point that out.

 

 Prior to mists starting to snap people at 16% rate, in my mind, Snapping was a bit of a stochastic process - perhaps not from the Preservation's point of view, but clearly from the point of view of people.  But this is a very minor point....

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Prior to the Deepness I don't believe anyone actually realized allomancy existed. Plus people strong enough to naturally snap without mists appear to have been extremely rare (they do exist, Alendi was a Seeker spiked to have stronger seeking like Vin). But I digress.

Defining "lucky" is kind of a strange notion for a shard to be concerned with in my opinion. I really want to know what chromium feruchemy does . . .

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