Mid-Range Game 10: Divided Loyalties

[Mailliw73]

Heh.  I purposely didn't say if I was on the wrong list or if it was someone I report to or someone that reports to me.  I'm not going to just say which person(s) was on the wrong list.   Just that I know of at least one other that was incorrectly listed.

Correct. Of all the players, you gave the least information. Props to you for that.

 

  

Then there's the list. I see no reason Maill would have to be a commander in order to put together a list. Just by RNG, he's likely to get half right. Even if he's a regular, he knows at least one other person's alignment along with his own, and though he might have put himself in the wrong list, he could have put his captain in the correct one. If he's a captain or commander, he'll get even more right, obviously, but the point isn't to be as accurate as possible. The point is to get people to claim an alignment, which has thus far been admirably successful. So I don't think we can draw any conclusions about Maill's position or alignment... which was basically the intention..

That was exactly the intention, thank you, Elb. Though whether I'm Thaidakar or not, I would claim it, because now people think I must not be Thaidakar as I got a lot of placements wrong(apparently), therefore it is now an I Know You Know if someone tries to kill me if they think I am Thaidakar, and now I potentially received protection from my faction's Surgeons/Edgedancers. 

[Elbereth]

I mean, you were probably going to get protection anyway, given that you've been the most active of the "experienced players" in this game. At least for the first cycle or two.

...It would be interesting if all of the Surgeons/Edgedancers were new and just protected who their gut told them to, rather than using the meta to decide. I can't decide whether that would work out better or not.

[Mailliw73]

I mean, you were probably going to get protection anyway, given that you've been the most active of the "experienced players" in this game. At least for the first cycle or two.

...It would be interesting if all of the Surgeons/Edgedancers were new and just protected who their gut told them to, rather than using the meta to decide. I can't decide whether that would work out better or not.

I really just don't want to die N1 for the third game in a row. And this way, I can help more. 

 

Now, we've revealed the factions, whether you believe it or not, we have a basis for discovering allegiances, and we can go after the Diagrammists. I currently have Clanky and Sart as my top two suspicions. 

[Seonid]

Interesting ploy, Mail. You have a reputation for being excellent at this information game, and you continue to prove that you deserve it. As a public service announcement, I am not going to be available until the end of Monday, MST, due to my final exam and paper. I apologize for the inconvenience, and look forward to being useful in future cycles.

[Tony Shark]

BAHH Sorry! I was figuring out how to multi-quote! 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Tony Shark

[Hellscythe]

There are several problems with this. First, you're assuming that the Surgeon is going to want to protect the lynched (which, 3 times out of 4, he/she won't). Even if a Diagrammist surgeon does exist, and protects the member about to be lynched, there'll be all the more suspicion cast on that person the next cycle. At that point it might be good to have the Cook kill along with the lynch. Though that does bring up a question for the GMs: Is there double-tapping in this game? That is, does the Surgeon/Progression protect from all attacks, or only one?

Also, this basically makes the Cook useless. Both Cooks, if they don't have the sense to see the problems with this.

 

 

 

If I was a Diagrammist Surgeon I would block the lynch every single night I could. The longer the innocents learn nothing the better. All that's happening is Diagrammist kills over and over and over. Until we find the Surgeon blocking our lynch. That'd be the only possible kill. All the Surgeon would have to do is see who has the most votes at the end of the cycle and send in the block.

 

The Cooks can target whoever they want. But I'm saying as a saftey measure if they have no other good leads or intention to cook anyone else they might as well ensure the lynch actually goes through.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Hellscythe

[Elbereth]

If a Diagrammist Surgeon blocked the lynch every time, it would literally take twice as long for their team to win. That seems inadvisable. And we wouldn't gain much information from the lynchee's death anyway, unless we manage to set up some sort of system with the Verstitalian Scholars.

I agree that it's not a bad idea as a safety measure, though. Assuming double-tapping works, which I'm not at all certain about. Even so, I think we would learn more from a blocked lynch than from just killing that person.

[STINK]

While I love debating eliminator tactics in public for this game, I think we should give the Eliminators a chance to think of their own stuff...

[Haelbarde]

Some numbers!

So running the numbers, assuming that each leader needs to have 2 subordinates, here are the basic numbers per team:

Minimum:

Leader: 1

Commander: 2

Captain: 4

Regular: 8

15 people per team, or 30 total.

Now if we assume that the extra players went to the bottom:

Leader: 1

Commander: 2

Captain: 5

Regular: 10

18 people per team, or 36 total.

I know that if I was GMing, I'd stick with 4 Captains, so each Commander has two reporting to them, and add the 3 extras to the captain squads, so that there are 3 groups of 3, and 1 group of 2. Edited December 14, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Zas678]

In that case:

 

Leader: 1

Commander: 2

Captain: 4

Regular: 11

 

Odds for Diagramist:

 

Leader: 5.6%

Commander: 11.1%

Captain: 22.2%

Regular: 61.1%

[Hellscythe]

So Stink has the highest chance of being a Diagrammist as of right now since we know no other Regulars! See guys. I told you Stink was suspicious. 

 

While I love debating eliminator tactics in public for this game, I think we should give the Eliminators a chance to think of their own stuff...

Why let them make plans when I can foil them before they happen?

Edited December 14, 2015 by Hellscythe

[STINK]

Because doing that in public is bad.

[Kasimir]

1. Can Progression/Surgeon protect from all attacks or only one?
 
They protect from one attack (or kill attempt), as stated in The Rules

2. Can the Explorer/Elsecaller protect from the lynch?
 
This has come up Elsewhere (pun not entirely intended.) Wilson's ruling is that the rules are mistaken: Elsecallers/Explorers are protected from everything except the lynch.

To quote Word of Wilson:
 

Transportation blocks all. Think of it like that the Elsecaller or the Explorer (since they have the same power) is nowhere to be found for any role ability. The only thing that can touch them is the lynch, because then everyone's looking for them and they can't hide.

3. Does Friction affect PMs sent to the GM? What about messages in the Eliminator doc?
 
Lol, nice try, but no.

4. What happens if a vote manipulator targets someone affected by Adhesion?

Wilson took this one:
 

If the two players who have been tied together with adhesion are not aligned in vote at the end of the cycle (whether due to not voting the same or because of vote manipulations), we'll flip a coin to see which of the two contrasting votes takes precedence and the other will be automatically switched to that. So if the vote-manipulated one won, then the other would be swapped to the vote manipulation. But if the other won, then the vote manipulation would be negated.

5. Do we need to green out our previous votes in the original post?

I'm just going to rule that you should do so (read this as a strong 'should'), in order to A. make life easier for us (see: faster rollovers), and B. to reduce the chances that we make a mistake and someone who wasn't supposed to get lynched gets lynched. So everyone wins.

 

Edit: I will also clarify something that should've been done from the start. While I'm co-GMing this game with Wilson, think of me more as her back-up: so if there is a clash between Word of Wilson and Word of Kas, go with Word of Wilson. As Wilson created this game, our operating procedure for interpreting rules is to go for the spirit of what she intended with the rules from the beginning.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Kasimir

[Bort]

Wow. Five pages already?

 

So far, I'm most suspicious of Adavantos and his summary post. Looking forward to seeing what else he offers this cycle. (He's online right now, so hopefully I'll not be waiting long ). Also, Maill and his list of faction members. I'd probably vote for him this cycle for doing that, but I think him dying on the first cycle again is a tad unfair, so I won't be. Yet. Maybe later.

[Feligon]

I think that it is suspicious that Mailliw would claim to be one of the leaders.  I don't think that it's enough to get lynched for, but I don't have any other suspicions at the moment.  Maybe I'll reread the thread.  I should get to bed, though.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Feligon

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Having gone through the thread, the thing that stuck out to me the most was Maill's list. A 'typical' first day lynch discussion was evolving around STINK and Hellscythe, until he posted that list. Phishing was probably part of his motivation (Maill is more known for his PM work, but PMs are restricted this game), but instinct says it may have been a distraction. STINK: You'd decided to reveal your role to the thread. Why, exactly?

 

edit: green

Edited December 15, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Amanuensis]

C1 Post Summaries, 51 - 84

 

1. Alvron: Quotes Feligon’s suggestion to have Runners contact Stink, saying that if he turns out to be a Diagrammist this would be a bad idea as the eliminators now know who to go after in order to end private communication. Quotes Arraenae’s edit about the accuracy of Mail’s list, claiming that he believes Mail is not Thaidakar for two reasons; first because he knows at least one name on it that is innaccurate and second because he believes if he was truly waiting on Restares he would have waited 12-24 hours to account for different timezones.

2. Clanky: Claims he is wrong and bets that Mail is a Commander who knew half the list and guessed the rest.

3. Alvron: Quotes Clanky’s previous post, saying he is more inclined to believe that either Mail is just being his “trollish self” or a Diagrammist attempting to glean information.

4. Clanky: Quotes Alvron’s previous post, asking how Diagrammists benefit from knowing the player’s factions.

5. Hael: Types up the post he promised from earlier. Believes that Mail is a Commander, as it gives him enough information to reasonably guess the rest of faction. His purpose? To see how people react to it in order to determine their alignment (Note: Assuming he means Faction and not whether they are a Diagrammist or not). Says that because of Mail’s reveal approximately twelve people have implicated themselves to belong to one or the other. He then says that he doesn’t find Mail suspicious for doing this, as he called a play like this ahead of time in the LG15 Dead Doc. Says that he doesn’t have enough information to accurately guess which faction Mail belongs to, but if he were him he would have claimed the opposite. Suggests it’s possible he purposely fudged some information or randomized the list entirely, but finds the latter less reasonable. Decides he is happy that he did this because it increased the amount of information available without revealing it all. Edits in to respond to Clanky that a Diagrammist could benefit from knowing Faction members by playing them against each other.

6. Zas: Attempts to determine Faction Structure and uses mathematics to determine the positions of Diagrammists among their ranks. Hopes that the Diagrammists are mostly Regulars or Captains, as if one of them began a Commander or even a Leader they would have began with a lot of information that they could use to manipulate the thread. In black text says he will be relatively inactive due to finals for the first four cycles. Edits in that it is clear Mail’s post is inaccurate. Asks that if he was a Commander why would he mix true information with false information, which would only benefit him, and therefore a selfish one. However, if he is a Captain or Regular, he is more likely looking for responses. Thinks that regardless this was a good way to start the game.

7. Alvron: .Quotes Clanky’s previous post, saying that if an actual Faction Leader were to challenge him with their own list it would reveal the Diagrammists who they are and give them someone to attack. Additionally, it veers the conversation away from searching for Diagrammists, as well as provides him for an alibi if Urithiru were to turn on him. Quotes Hael’s previous post where he guesses at Alvron’s position within the Sons of Honor due to his response, claiming that in order to protect that information he was purposely vague.

8. Hael: Quotes Alvron’s previous response, saying it’s up to the observers to determine how much thought he put into his reaction before posting it. Also says that Commanders may now be able to guess half the list assuming that Mail is also a Commander and accurately put in the information he knew.

9. Alvron: Quotes Hael’s previous response, claiming to deliberate on most posts for about ten minutes before submitting it. States that Commanders only know the Leader and the Captains under their charge, and therefore cannot determine a full roster, according to his understanding of the rules.

10. Hael: Quotes Alvron’s previous post, saying he hasn’t taken a good look at a rules, but that like the Faction Leaders, who know everyone below him, the Commanders do as well; to confirm he goes to reread the rules. Edits in that the rules don’t really clarify which is true and therefore asks the GM. Later this question is answered, saying that Commanders do indeed know everyone below them.

11. Alvron: Claims that he may be purposely sowing false information to hide his position.

12. Hellscythe: Quotes Hael’s comment about Mail trying to instigate reactions, claiming that “they are unto us,” (Note: does not clarify who they are). Quotes Zas’ computations, saying that he’s only right if they assume the distribution was completely random with no outside stigma.

13. Creccio: Weighs in on Hael/Alvron’s debate on how much of the roster Commanders might know. Asks for Alvron to clarify on what he means by “reports to” regarding factions, as it has been previously clarified that PMs can only be started by Runners and the Bondsmith. Asks if anyone has any leads on finding the Diagrammists, as he currently has no ideas.

14. Sart: RP post in response to Adavantos’ post summaries with a vote against him. Explains that he is voting for me because I am a dangerous player and that he does not agree with the idea of post summaries, as while it requires a lot of effort, in his opinion it doesn’t really accomplish anything - is just another way to contribute without actually contribute. Also claims that intentional or not they will be biased to my side.

15. Hael: Responds to Creccio’s input, saying he’ll wait on further clarification by those with more knowledge on the matter, as well as clarifies Alvron’s previous wording in that he was just referring to the structure of the Faction. Answers that until we begin to see who the Diagrammists go after and player’s reactions to it all we can do is continue to discuss the game and who we should lynch to weed them out.

16. Clanky: Quotes Creccio’s previous post, saying that the best way to find the eliminators in any game is to talk. References that almost every game someone asks this same question and that it is suspicious. Believes that people are underestimating the power of Thaidakar and Restares, as if they were to establish a line of communication among their faction they could direct kills to fulfill their secondary win condition; also that it wouldn’t be to damaging if they were to die.

17. Elbereth: Quotes Hellscythe’s earlier suggestion about having the cook double tap lynch targets, as it 1: assumes the Surgeon would want to protect the lynchee, which if they did do would only cast more suspicion on that player next cycle, which at that point it would be appropriate to double tap them. Believes that otherwise the Cook’s lose the purpose of their role, which is to poison who they think is suspicious or take out inactives if it becomes a problem this game. Quotes a later comment by Hellscythe about Diagrammists being randomly distributed, referencing a statement in the rules that confirms this; however, in the off chance that both Thaidakar and Restares were made Diagrammists, the GMs might intervene. Quotes Sart’s post where he votes against me, explaining that from experience the post summaries are useful and that she trusts I’ll post analysis later on in the turn. In response to Mail’s reveal, believes that with an RNG he could have accurately guessed just as many player’s factions. She believes the point wasn’t to be right, but to figure out others factions based on their responses, which has been “admirably successful.” Retracts her vote off of Hellscythe, saying that she understands his vote on Stink but does not agree with it. Asks the GM if original votes should be turned green to keep them from counting.

18. Kipper: Off topic comment about Mace Windu being in the game. Quotes Adavantos’ post summaries post, asking for him to spoiler it due to its length. Taunts him in blue text about the use of blue text, claiming that since people seldom use it he didn’t think it necessary before running on about how much of a smart*** he is by being a smart***. Responds to Clanky’s last post, saying that both the information and knowing who gives out information is useful to the Diagrammists, as typically more important roles are more reluctant with giving out information. Off-topic comment directed at Alvron. Quotes Creccio’s question about how to find the Diagrammists and declares him a confirmed Diagrammist. Quotes Sart’s post where he votes against me, saying that he thinks voting for a player using bias as a reason is odd. Asks for him to point out examples of said bias as he does not see it. References that historically Adavantos has made posts just like this, and asks what he hopes to learn from my reaction. Asks for Sart to give an example of subject to discuss that is free of bias. Points out that in this post he doesn’t really contribute much either. Ends the post with a vote for Sart and a post script claiming he’s eager to see this post summary.

19. Mail: Commends Alvron for being the player who gave up the least amount of information through his reaction. Quotes Elbereth’s previous analysis of Mail’s intent, saying she’s right and that now, whether or not he really is Thaidakar, he has painted a target on his back for both those who oppose him and those with the power to save him.

20. Elbereth: Claims that it’s likely Mail would have received protection anyway due to his experience. Comments on how interesting it would be if all the Surgeons and Edgedancers were new players and instead ignored the meta by protecting who their gut told them.

21. Mail: References the last two games where he was killed N1 by the eliminators, saying that at least in this case he could actually leave the game having helped some. Says that they have now reactions to base suspicions of Diagrammists off of, and has determined that Clanky and Sart are most suspicious.

22. Seonid: Congratulates Mail for his uncertain Thaidakar reveal. Says in black text that he will be unavailable until Monday due to school work, but that he looks forward to playing when he is available.

23. Tony: Post expressing frustration, apologizing and saying he was trying to figure out the multiquote feature. (Note: original content edited, would like to know what was originally contained within this post).

24. Hellscythe: Quotes Elbereth’s response to his previously proposed strategy, claiming that if he were a Diagrammist Surgeon he would protect the lynch every night he could in order to sow doubt into the thread. Then says that the Cooks can poison whoever they want but lacking other leads to double tap the lynch just in case.

25. Elbereth: Responds to Hellscythe’s logic that if the Diagrammists did that it would take twice as long for their team to win, which doesn’t seem like a good idea. Also reminds him that unless they figure out a system to ensure Scholar information gets out they can’t learn anything from the lynch anyway. She does agree that it’s a good safety measure, however she is uncertain if double tapping is even a thing this game. Believes that we can learn more information from a lynchee being saved than them simply being killed.

26. Stink: Indirectly advises the others from giving the eliminators strategies to use.

27. Hael: Quotes Zas’ calculations regarding faction placements, weighing in on what he would do if her were the GM of this game.

28. Zas: Adjusts his calculations according to Hael’s logic.

29. Hellscythe: Claims Stink is suspicious because he is the only known Regular, then asks him why should they let the Diagrammists form plans when they could try to thwart them.

30. Stink: Answers that doing so in a place where everyone can see it is inefficient.

31. Bort: Expresses wonder that the thread is already at five pages. Claims that I am the player he is most suspicious of due to my summary post, but is looking forward to what else I have to say. Thinks Mail is suspicious for his reveal, but because he was killed N1 the last two games will refrain on voting for him for now.

32. Feligon: Expresses suspicions of Mail but does not vote because he doesn’t think that his reveal alone is reason enough to be lynched. Says he should read the thread again but that he needs sleep.

33. Twei: Casts suspicion on Mail for routing the direction of the thread away from the typical day one lynch discussion regarding Stink and Hellscythe. Redirects it back by voting for Stink, asking why he revealed his role.

34. Adavantos: Once again, won’t bother summarizing myself. Know that every time I post one of these I will be putting a link in my signature to it, so that every time I post you can quickly direct yourself to a set of summaries you wish to read again, which you can then use to go to a player’s post. If I keep this up, this should make it extremely easy for everyone to navigate the game and gather evidence against one another.

 

Alright so, with that out of the way, time for some analysis. I’m still trying to observe a few players who have given me odd vibes so I’ll refrain from commenting on them now so that they don’t start acting different before I can learn more, however I will comment on a few of the more discussion centric subjects.

 

First, Stink. Besides me thinking that his reveal was an absolutely terrible idea from a villager’s perspective, I am unsure of his alignment as a result. My primary issue with this reveal is that he is clearly trying to garner trust in a similar fashion to how I have in previous games, and that in most - if not all of - the games I’ve played it, when someone made a public reveal like this early on (see Joe in MR9) people always question their alignment but seldom actually pursue them, and in all the cases I can think of said player ended up being innocent. So, assuming Stink is conscious of this fact, it would be a rational way for an eliminator to get on the thread’s good side in a game without an ability to scan roles or alignments to confirm it. Another thing about it is that because of the role he claimed (Runner) it’s natural that the village would want to protect him, as I believe it was Elbereth who stated in a previous post, that PMs tend to benefit them more than the eliminators. By claiming that he is a Son of Honor he has made himself an ideal target for a rogue Ghostblood Cook, but also protection from an SoH Surgeon/ Edgedancer. By claiming he is a Runner he has tempted the Diagrammists into attacking him, but also encouraged a good Surgeon / Edgedancer to come to his aid. Overall, the situation he has put himself in would benefit the evil faction more if he were to succeed in getting protection, opening up many options, such as a WGG without actually using a protection of their own or placing a member of theirs in a position where they can gather information for their team. Regardless of this, I want to believe Stink is genuine due to the nature of his posts (besides the bit about revealing everything in thread, everything he has said has real worth).

 

Second, Hellscythe. Hellscythe’s actions this cycle remind me a lot of Bridge Boy’s on D1 of LG15 when he placed an unfounded vote on Alvron for a joke and received a ton of suspicion as a result of that and his subsequent reactions. Some players believed that an eliminator wouldn’t make a mistake like that to begin with, which turned out to be wrong. Knowing that Hellscythe was a part of that game, logically I conclude that he would not allow himself to do the same thing if he really were evil; however that could also be his intent, to throw us off by doing the exact same thing an eliminator did last game. A lot of the things he is saying, however, really makes no sense to me as a villager. Like Araris in the same game, I get the vibe that he is intentionally trying to get us to pursue false leads and waste resources (referencing the cook double-tap idea). If not for the three consecutive votes on him around page 2 I would be much more suspicious of him, but from my experience when things like that happen there’s usually an eliminator among the players who jump on another like that.

 

Third, Mail. He’s drifting towards the top of my maybe evil list right now, and this began long before his Thaidakar reveal. Him being the third vote on Hellscythe was the first red flag for me; I would have accepted it due to how odd I think Hellscythe is acting before his seemingly random retraction, but after that I am even more suspicious of him. It would be one thing if another player had done something to convince us that they’re more worthy of being lynched, but at that point in time - besides himself - Hellscythe was the most suspicious player, in my opinion. His lack of solid explanation and back-and-forth with Hellscythe concerns me. As for the Thaidakar reveal, my initial thoughts were that he was full of it, because if he was truly Thaidakar he would have posted the entire roster the second Stink revealed his role instead of congratulating him and claiming he would if he could. Maybe if he waited longer before revealing I could buy the waiting on Restares excuse, but he didn’t and thus I already consider him a liar. It’s clear he’s phishing for information but besides potentially luring out faction leaders and turning the team’s against each other I don’t see how the benefit of this plot would outweigh the cost for the Diagrammists. Automatically a false claim at this level would attract attention, which is something eliminators seldom want. I am more inclined to agree with Hael’s mindset that Mail would have done this regardless of alignment because it’s simply something he would do. Sadly because of the fact that I believe that if he was evil his teammates would advise against this tactic, which makes me want to lean towards him probably being innocent, but admittedly I’m still hung up on his vote/retraction on Hellscythe.

 

Now, for Sart’s vote against me. I don’t really have much to say into response, Sart. I understand where you’re coming from for two reasons; first, because I personally believe that players who solely post useful tools and never weigh in on the discussion are automatically evil because they are indeed trying to seem useful without actually getting involved and making enemies (see Burnt Spaghetti in LG15, where she would often post Quick Links and Vote Tallies but never vote). Second, because you weren’t part of the game where posts like this were a trend for me (in which case I was good, however that is not a valid argument. No matter my alignment I would do something just like this because the way I play the games where I am evil is by behaving the same way I would good in order to keep people guessing. So with that said, I can’t blame you for voting for me, though I do think that the way you articulated it - as said by Kipper - was not very efficient. For that reason I can’t tell if you actually think I’m evil or if you are - similar to the way you voted for brand new players who hadn’t yet post in MR9 - trying to get a recurring player (especially one who normally posts a ton) to speak up. I am more inclined to believe the latter, which is why I am leaning towards you being innocent at the moment. Also because of the fact that it is extremely rare for eliminators to vote for me to be killed - especially early on in this game - as it makes them unnecessary target when it’s much safer for them to just kill me in the night rather than risk revealing themselves.

 

As for Elbereth and Kipper coming to my defense, I am slightly suspicious of this. Last time I was an eliminator (QF10, not the short lived LG15a) I would intentionally come to a player who I know is innocent’s defense so that in the event that they are killed suspicion is drawn away from me and onto the player’s who voted for them (which often never contained one of my teammates) and so that if I ended up killed it would implicate that player as evil, wasting the town’s time trying to kill them while simultaneously making up for my loss. I am wary of Kipper in particular (and this isn’t just because I naturally can’t bring myself to trust him since LG14 ) because in every game we have been in together (apart from my first, MR8, or when we were evil together in LG15a) he has done the exact opposite of this; casting suspicion onto me early on instead. By process of elimination that brings me to the conclusion that either we are evil together (which I know is not true), that he knows I’m good because he is evil and is trying to get on my good side or accomplish one of the aforementioned tactics, or that he really is trying to play different than usual, which also can be construed as suspicious.

 

With that out of the way, I want to discuss the game itself. As we all know this is an elimination game within a faction game. While I have experience with the former I am completely clueless on the latter. For that reason my initial instinct is to pursue the primary win condition, which is to find and kill the Diagrammists, above all else. However, based on some other player’s posts, it seems there are a few who are more concerned with the faction aspect. I want to know what everyone’s opinions are on how we should treat this game, because there a lot of posts that I can interpret two entirely different ways based on intent alone. For example, did Hellscythe vote for Stink because he is a Diagrammist trying to reduce PMs or a Ghostblood trying to get his faction ahead in numbers? Knowing where players stand in this matter is pretty important when it comes to my analysis. Personally I, like Stink, believe that the faction aspect of the game is irrelevant in favor of the eliminator. The way I look at it, killing villager Radiants on the other side does more harm than good no matter what team you are on, as their Surges are advantages we can use against the bad guys. While I understand the fascination with the faction aspect of this game, I think it’s better that at least in the beginning we pursue the Diagrammists over one another, as if we let this turn into a faction war the eliminators could easily stay out of it until we’ve clawed enough of our own throats to swoop in and finish us for their victory.

 

 

EDITED FOR CURRENT VOTE TALLY

 

(1) Paranoid King: Clanky (1),

(0) Clanky: Arraenae (1),

(3) Stink: Hellscythe (1), Orlok (1), Twei (1)

(2) Hellscythe: Elbereth (1), phattmer (1), Mailliw (1), Tony (1),

(1) Orlok: Arraenae (1),

(1) Adavantos: Sart (1),

 

EDIT PART DEUX

 

Because I forgot to address it the first time, I will go ahead and clarify this now, Sart. My intent is to seem as unbiased as possible in the actual summary, however if I feel it necessary I will add commentary in parenthesis and italics so that you guys see some of my reactions to it. Additionally, to combat bias, I have also included links to every single post that way no one simply goes off my reading of it, instead being able to quickly take a look at the information themselves.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Adavantos

[Bort]

We should be careful when looking at this game as an elimination game within a faction game. The last time we looked at a game like that, we nearly caused Kas some serious brain damage.

 

It is for this reason that I will NOT be suggesting a Ghostblood/Sons of Honour alliance to target Diagrammists. That's when things get a little screwy.

 

For clarification...

 

If, for example, I am a Commander, do I get the names of the Captains under my command, and their minions, or do I just get the names of the Captains? I believe from earlier clarifications on this that I would get both, but am still unsure.

[TheMightyLopen]

I don't really have much to say yet in terms of suspicions and such. Just a few things I think might be worth mentioning.

 

@GM's, in the rules it says the KR will be equally distributed between factions and stuff, but I was wondering if we could have a bit of a clarification on this. Does that mean that one faction will have each of the four Radiants and the other side will have the same except the Bondsmith will be replaced by one of the other 3? By which we can assume that there are at least 2 of each type of Radiant except Bondsmith?

 

With the limited information about role and alignment in this game, I was wondering how that would affect things. Like, would the eliminator team be small since alignment isn't revealed directly, or would we just have a lot of scholars to give us a cushion in case some of them die fairly early?

 

I'll hopefully add some more later in terms of suspicions and strategies and stuff, but I've gotta go to sleep now.

[Shallan]

Sorry I haven't posted yet, I've been a bit busy with finals and all. I should be able to be a lot more active from now on, but I think I'll refrain from posting any advice, even though Wilson is GMing now.

[Kasimir]

We should be careful when looking at this game as an elimination game within a faction game. The last time we looked at a game like that, we nearly caused Kas some serious brain damage.

Why, thanks, Bort, I'm so touched you care about the state of my brain Considering I swore I'd castrate myself if I ever ran a Faction game again, I'm not sure if that's what you should be worried about, nevertheless...

Suffice to say that Wilson and myself are fairly confident there will be no repeat of MR7 and we have taken precautions to account for that. (And if there is, I will cry, and it will be ugly, and you will all be responsible for making Kas cry. Feel ashamed of yourselves! )

 

To once more clarify, this is what things would look like if you were a...

1. Regular:

"Your rank is Regular, and as such, you report to Wyrm."

2. Captain:

"Your rank is Captain, and as such, you report to Wyrm. In addition, Gamma, Meta, Awes, Jerric, 18thShard and Ostrich report to you."

3. Commander:

"Your rank is Commander, and as such, you report to Wyrm. In addition, you know this of your faction's command structure:

Captains: Boromir, Faramir, Thorongil

Regulars: Gamma, Meta, Awes, Jerric, 18thShard and Ostrich."

4. Thaidakar/Restares

"Your rank is Thaidakar/Restares. Hence, you know this of your faction's command structure:

Commanders: [Everyone who is a Commander]

Captains: [Everyone who is a Captain]

Regulars: [Everyone who is a Regular]"

Thaidakar and Restares know everyone, but they don't know who reports to whom. Commander knows the Captains who report to them and the Regulars who report to these Captains, but don't know the breakdown (so in this example, our Commander doesn't know if Gamma reports to Thorongil, Boromir, or Faramir.) They also don't know who the other Commanders and their subordinates are.

Captains know who their immediate commanding officer is, and who their subordinates are.

 

And if you're a Regular, you're pretty lucky because things are uncomplicated: you just know who you report to. That's all. Very much like a mushroom

 

Lopen: It just means that both Factions have an equal number of Radiants. We can neither confirm nor deny exactly how equitable the distribution of Radiant-Types within Factions are.

[Curious Anamaximder]

Cause I am a good guy, I am a Runner Captain.

[Bort]

Thanks for the clarification, Kas.

[Haelbarde]

Now since this is a complicated role game, I bet (though those with more experience can tell me) that about a quarter of the players are Diagramists (6 players).

6 would be a reasonable ballpark figure, though I think I'm going to operate under the assumption that there are seven - We have some kill roles (presumably), and Wilson wants to change the meta that's developed, and so it would not surprise me if she challenged our assumptions. Also, I think when she did test distributions, she had some that had 7. But it would likely depend on how many of each role is present.

Also, to those who might be wondering if I will be doing quick links, the answer is not necessarily. Rollover is 3am, so I'm not going to be present to post them shortly after. So if someone else would like to, feel free, otherwise you can join me in petitioning the GMs to include them in the writeups.

[Kynedath]

Here is what I have so far:

 

STINK claims to be a sons of honor runner regular. So far, he has the most votes but has done nothing to subdue his assailants or defend his actions. His responses would lead me to believe that he was being smug, but that would lead to no clear advantage. Alternatively, he could be trying to appeal to the surgeons and edgedancers as well as gain our trust by showing how useful he could potentially be.

 

Hellscythe attacked STINK for his reveal, taking a ton of mistrust from the rest of the players. Some later realized that what Hellscythe was doing was only natural but others still don't believe that Hellscythe was doing anything for the factions. What triggers alarms for me is that Hellscythe accused STINK without validating their reasons why. A half-hearted remark about the possibility of STINK being a diagrammist is all that we got. Later, Hellscythe used statistical information recently discovered to justify her attack. I am thinking that Hellscythe either has information that we don't (not too likely seeing as it's the first cycle) or else they have some ulterior motive like trying to direct suspicion to themselves.

 

Mailliw posted a supposed list of the faction members that some of the players, I'm not quite sure how many, found false. He later confessed that he was not the Thaidakar and he was just looking for information. He now knows the factions of many of the players from their responses. This seems like something anyone would do, given the experience to pull it off, therefore, I can;t really pull that much from his motives.

 

Arraenae's vote on Orlok was mostly based on the post he made regarding STINK and his alleged advice to new players. Because Orlok mistrusted STINK, Arraenae takes it as Orlok trying to sabotage the new players and the rest of the players with them. Orlok distrusts (and therefore voted for) STINK because he thinks that the advice given by STINK sounds like what a diagrammist would say to the new players. My take on this is that Both of them could be covering their  Diagrammist ties with posts that are good in the beginning when they know that it won't make a difference that cycle.

 

Adavantos making a list of what happened does seem very useful but I'm wondering why he only put in his input after he came under fire for the posting of his summary. Did he not have any opinions on the proceedings of the first fifty posts? I can understand that it takes time to type all of that information but after the time he spent summarizing the posts, a few comments would have been like nothing. His lack of opinion is slightly suspicious to me but at this time, I'm really not worried about it, though I do agree with Kipper, spoilers would be nice and Adavatos, you missed at least one vote if not more. Kipper voted for Sart.

 

Sart voted for Adavantos because he knew that he has had experience playing this game, and he thought that the summarization posts were going to be inaccurate and biased. None of the reasons he listed were realistic at that point. Adavantos had done nothing blatantly dangerous and his summaries were accurate representations of the posts at that time. This makes me think that Sart was trying to bring attention to Adavantos for false reasons to get him to say something damning in front of everyone. Since Adavantos is an experienced player, I think that Sart either wants to take him out for malicious reasons or he has reason to believe that Adavantos is a Diagrammist.

 

Venture Mistborn has also claimed to be a runner, but this time a captain. Nobody has really reacted at all, never mind incredibly strongly, so I'm going to take this claim with a grain of salt. I don't see why he would claim it this far into the game when there is already a runner out there near the very start of the game. If he waited that long, then I don't know why he didn't keep it a secret for longer to keep an edge against others. Venture, if you have an answer, then please feel free to tell me.

 

With all of this information, I still feel none of it convinces me. at this point I think I'll stay neutral.