Mid-Range Game 10: Divided Loyalties

[Starry Smite]

Sorry, for not posting earlier, but I didn't get on sunday, and there was a lot more to read than I expected.  I was planning on voting, but I was too late.  I'll make sure to keep up better this cycle.

 

I'll put my vote on Bort.  Our main focus should be to take out all the Diagramists.

[Elbereth]

These are just some general thoughts before I have to go take a final (last final of the year!!!!). I don't know when I'll be on again, because my wifi at home is out and I don't know when it'll be fixed.

Starry, would you care to say why you think Bort is suspicious?

Apparently someone really suspects Stink.

Our cooks certainly are proactive, aren't they. The only reason for Arrenae's death that I can see was a pure faction kill. I really don't see any other reason to kill her. At least in my mind, she wasn't suspicious.

From the old thread, since I didn't get on before turnover: Hellscythe, we'll hopefully have scholars for a while at least. It would take a very, very unlikely chance to kill two scholars at once, and we know for a fact that there's at least two.

Looking at the roles, I tend to agree that the eliminator team is going to be relatively small. There are a lot of roles which could do great harm in the hands of the eliminators, and the villagers are very ignorant and somewhat blindly flailing. I don't think they have a cook, though. That'd be too OP.

[STINK]

Round of Applause to the person that protected Venture.

 

I think that the Rae kill was also due to the cook wanting to play the faction game, which is a shame.

 

Anyone got any suspicions?

[little wilson]

So....apparently when I went through the thread yesterday to update the votes for what happened, I somehow missed Kipper's vote. With that counting, Sart should've died to the lynch. I've talked to Meta and he and I have decided that since it's still early in the cycle and Sart's only posted once, we're going to go through with the lynch. Kas and I will adjust the writeup accordingly. And the votes.

 

Apparently there was a typo on the spreadsheet so Starry wasn't showing as having a vote even though she did. The only vote manipulation was on Elbereth.

 

Sorry!

[Hellscythe]

Muhahaha. I'll take my vote back. tyvm.

[Kynedath]

To be honest, I'm mostly suspicious of the players who had little to no activity. They would be trying to stay under the radar while still manipulating the results of the cycle. I know that at least one of them had a single post which contributed nothing to the discussion. I don't trust people who try to be unnoticeable and inconspicuous.

 

Mace Windu I'm calling you out, if only to provoke discussion.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Kynedath

[Zas678]

Sorry Sart! I guess that one's kind of my fault.

 

EDIT- It should also be mentioned that it was believed that Stink was tied, so Elbereth's vote change would kill Stink. That then raises the question. Did the Ghostbloods want Stink dead as a Son of Honor? Or do the Diagramists have a vote pull that they used to get rid of him?

 

I personally recommend to Cooks that they don't get rid of Runners. Although they may be for the other team, they, combined with Bondsmiths and the Versitilian Scholars and Assasins, are our only hopes at gaining more information then the Diagramists. 

As for who to vote for? I'm not sure. I was going to vote for Sart since there seemed to be funny business, but since the funny business was from the GMs, I'm not sure anymore. I'll keep watching.

[RippleGylf]

So, are we not getting told if we actually killed a Diagramist?

[STINK]

No, the scholars have to investigate the body.

 

Also, unless I'm wrong, it doesn't say anywhere that the KR can't be a diagrammist. Awareness.

[Zas678]

Odds are, if we're assuming 1 in 4 people is a diagramist (since it's a difficult game), 2 of the KR are Diagramists. 

[STINK]

So even though KR really shouldn't be claiming, if they do then that might be why! 

[Clanky]

Odds are, if we're assuming 1 in 4 people is a diagramist (since it's a difficult game), 2 of the KR are Diagramists. 

 

This is a difficult game for the Village more so than for the Elminators. Knowledge is the eliminators greatest power over the village and this game makes it so much harder for the villagers to learn anything. Combine that with the added incentive to kill the other faction and I would say the traitors have it pretty easy. I would bet upon 1 in 5 being diagrammists at most but probably less.

[Kipper]

Okay, this brings up a different situation for the Scholars then.

To make sure we get both, I suggest that the Ghostblood Scholar(s) Scan Arrenae, and the Sons of Honor Scholar(s) Scan Sart.

[Kynedath]

I think your sttistics are innaccurate. 

 

Odds are, if we're assuming 1 in 4 people is a diagramist (since it's a difficult game), 2 of the KR are Diagramists. 

 

If we are trying to figure out the chances of there being KRs on the Dia team then you have to take into account the multiplication of probability. Since there are 8 KRs in the game and 36 total, the KRs take up 25% of the players. Therefore, there is a 25% chance that there will be one KR with the Diagrammists. When you calculate the chances of there being 2 KRs on the Dia team, then you have a 5% chance of having both of them on your team. 

 

1 KR = 25%

2 KR = 5%

3 KR = 0.88%

 

Equations:

 

8/36 = 0.25 = 25%

 

7/35 = 0.2 --> 0.2*0.25 = 5%

 

5/34 = ~0.147 --> 0.147*0.05 = ~0.88%

 

Knowing this, I feel we have a high chance of there being only one KR on the Diagrammist team unless Wilson or Kas handpicked the Diagrammists.

[Mace Windu]

 

 

Mace Windu I'm calling you out, if only to provoke discussion.

This is my first game so I was trying to get a feel for how things go.  That is why I didn't caste a vote on the first cycle.  I will try to be more active this cycle.  I do have to say I was surprised by the results of last cycle.  I thought there would be different results.

[Amanuensis]

I'm putting a vote on Venture Mistborn, for a suspected WGG. It seems awfully fishy to me that a Doc would save him. Venture wasn't a huge suspect in the Day, and I'm quite frankly surprised that a Doc would guard him.

 

Venture's attack is unsurprising, the interesting part is his survival. When he claimed to be a Captain and a Runner, that immediately would draw fire from any Diagrammists and potentially enemy faction cooks. I didn't think he fished for protection well enough, as he didn't claim a faction, so neither side know if they wanted to save him or not. I guess someone anticipated the Diagrammists' plan though, and got it just right. This doesn't feel quite like a WGG to me. It's possible, but doesn't ring true to me.

 

Honestly, Mail, I'm more inclined to agree with Kipper on this one. Venture literally came in, dropped a single post with nothing but his role and rank, then disappeared. Quite a few people questioned him about it and yet he never responded. Not only that but he was the second person to claim Runner that day, and the other one was significantly more active. First, why would the Diagrammists not go after Stink? Second, why would the Surgeon not protect Stink? Both the side of good and the side of evil had more reason to target Stink rather than Venture, and yet neither did? That seems incredibly coincidental to me. Runner or not, Venture is a habitual inactive. Even in games like MR8 where he was a Coinshot he barely posted let alone used his ability, even when people were basically begging him to attack a few players they had good reason to believe were Skaa. Strategically this entire situation just makes no sense. And before someone says there was a WGG last game , that doesn't mean it's less likely in this game. Because so many people think that as soon as a WGG occurs that it rules it out for the next few games, I would do it just to teach them not to make assumptions like that. Hell, I would literally do it every game until people started expecting it and then stop so that next time another situation comes up that seems like it could be a WGG but isn't they would lynch the survivor while we target others.

 

That's my two cents on the matter. Still trying to work through analyzing the rest of what occurred. I'm a bit upset that Arraenae was taken out so early. We had a good rapport last game and had hoped we could establish it again this game, and she was one of the lucky few who I was beginning to trust based on their participation last cycle. As for Mail, I can't say I'm not surprised he was attacked, but I do think that was really cruel. Considering that both of the players who were poisoned were Sons of Honor, I'm guessing that means the Ghostbloods have two cooks, which means the Sons of Honor should too. I can understand poisoning Mail, but Arraenae's case it seems like an attack for her allegiance alone. Nice to know the kill roles on the side of the Sons of Honor are more cautious when it comes to taking lives. Also, unless we have a kill hungry Ardent on our hands too, it seems the Diagrammists began with one of them. I do find it odd that they chose to kill Sart over Stink, which could mean a plethora of things worth exploring, not limited to them trying to implicate me by killing the player who voted for my death. Since I typically end up a priority target for Eliminators and Protectors, I would not be surprised if this was part of a ploy to make me look bad and turn everyone against me before I can gain too much trust. Could also mean Stink is a Diagrammist too, which is an alternate explanation for why they went after Venture instead, but those combined just seem too obvious. It's more likely that they are trying to implicate him in a similar way that I just described for me.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Adavantos

[Kynedath]

This is my first game so I was trying to get a feel for how things go.  That is why I didn't caste a vote on the first cycle.  I will try to be more active this cycle.  I do have to say I was surprised by the results of last cycle.  I thought there would be different results.

I understand this being a first game but I still think that there would have been more of an opinion. I am not super suspicious of you right now but I do think that it was odd that you put in so little input. For now my vote will stay on you.

 

Different results such as what? 

[Mace Windu]

I thought the back and forth between Hellscythe and Stink would have resulted in one of them getting attacked.  I wasn't that surprised about Mailliwe getting attacked, but it was a bit unfortunate.  In both of those cases, I believe their intent was to create dialogue and get people to start thinking.  Maybe more so in the case of Mailliwe.  I appreciate your candor Kynedath.  Hopefully, I can convince you that I'm not a threat.

[Paranoid King]

Considering that both of the players who were poisoned were Sons of Honor, I'm guessing that means the Ghostbloods have two cooks, which means the Sons of Honor should too.

I suppose. Or the teams could be imbalanced, with two cooks on one team. But I think it's a more likely scenario that people aren't really focusing on who or who isn't in their faction right now. Full faction lists haven't been released yet, and no PM communication is going on yet. This early in the game, the cooks may have just figured it was a better idea to attack now, rather than wait to make sure they didn't hit someone in their faction.

[Clanky]

 

Honestly, Mail, I'm more inclined to agree with Kipper on this one. Venture literally came in, dropped a single post with nothing but his role and rank, then disappeared. Quite a few people questioned him about it and yet he never responded. Not only that but he was the second person to claim Runner that day, and the other one was significantly more active. First, why would the Diagrammists not go after Stink? Second, why would the Surgeon not protect Stink? Both the side of good and the side of evil had more reason to target Stink rather than Venture, and yet neither did? That seems incredibly coincidental to me. Runner or not, Venture is a habitual inactive. Even in games like MR8 where he was a Coinshot he barely posted let alone used his ability, even when people were basically begging him to attack a few players they had good reason to believe were Skaa. Strategically this entire situation just makes no sense. And just because there was a WGG last game doesn't mean it's less likely in this game. Hell, because so many people think that as soon as a WGG occurs that it rules it out for the next few games, I would do it just to teach them not to make assumptions like that. Hell, I would literally do it every game until people started expecting it and then stop so that next time another situation comes up that seems like it could be a WGG but isn't they would lynch the survivor while we target others.

 

That's my two cents on the matter. Still trying to work through analyzing the rest of what occurred. I'm a bit upset that Arraenae was taken out so early. We had a good rapport last game and had hoped we could establish it again this game, and she was one of the lucky few who I was beginning to trust based on their participation last cycle. As for Mail, I can't say I'm not surprised he was attacked, but I do think that was really cruel. Considering that both of the players who were poisoned were Sons of Honor, I'm guessing that means the Ghostbloods have two cooks, which means the Sons of Honor should too. I can understand poisoning Mail, but Arraenae's case it seems like an attack for her allegiance alone. Nice to know the kill roles on the side of the Sons of Honor are more cautious when it comes to taking lives. Also, unless we have a kill hungry Ardent on our hands too, it seems the Diagrammists also began with one of them. I do find it odd that they chose to kill Sart over Stink, which could mean a plethora of things worth exploring, not limited to them trying to implicate me by killing the player who voted for my death. Since I typically end up a priority target for Eliminators and Protectors, I would not be surprised if this was part of a ploy to make me look bad and turn everyone against me before I can gain too much trust. Could also mean Stink is a Diagrammist too, which is an alternate explanation for why they went after Venture instead, but those combined just seem too obvious. It's more likely that they are trying to implicate him in a similar way that I just described for me.

 

 

As for why I think the Diagrams would attack Venture instead of STINK you actually answer that yourself "Second, why would the Surgeon not protect Stink? " The diagrammists probably wanted to take down PMs and STINK did a better job of attracting protection as you say yourself. STINK was also on the verge of getting lynched and they wouldn't want to waste an attack on him. 

[Elbereth]

I suppose. Or the teams could be imbalanced, with two cooks on one team. But I think it's a more likely scenario that people aren't really focusing on who or who isn't in their faction right now. Full faction lists haven't been released yet, and no PM communication is going on yet. This early in the game, the cooks may have just figured it was a better idea to attack now, rather than wait to make sure they didn't hit someone in their faction.

The rules specifically state that roles will be evenly distributed between the factions.

Also, now that LG15 is over, I'll be posting an explanation for my different playing style, as soon as I do so over there.

EDIT: So, explanation time! [Note that I wrote this before the game started.] I am trying an interesting thing, which will hopefully give me more insight into my characters of my novel, and make SE more interesting for me. Basically, I'm RPing each of my characters in turn, but instead of with normal RP, I'm RPing everything. Including the analysis. This is partly because it'll help me flesh out my characters and their different traits and speech patterns, and partly because I'm almost certainly going to write a scene where they're actually playing Mafia. It's going to be great.

So! Last game (LG15), I was the newbie of the group, which was pretty fitting, so I didn't tell anyone (alive) about what I was doing. I was relatively logical, curious, and too nervous to actually voice my opinions.

This game, I'm going to be a little different. As Elba, I'm experienced, kind, and practical, at my core. Elba is caring and considerate, but pragmatic when necessary. I will likely do a little RP, as opposed to the none I did in LG15, but not a ton like I will be doing in later games. Elba is also very protective of her privacy (given that in my novel she's constantly surrounded by a force field that only lets in who she wants it to). I'll also be doing a great deal of discussion, ala Adavantos in LG15. I don't really know more specifics, which is partly why I'm doing this.

If anyone sees me say something out of character, please call me on it. I will be in character in PMs as well, and probably even on the evil doc if I'm an eliminator (as I'm writing this before the game starts, I don't know whether that will come up or not).

Basically, what I'm saying is that if I'm acting differently than I did in LG15, it's not necessarily because I'm an eliminator. It's because I'm someone else.

Hopefully, you won't see any more blue from me for the rest of the game. If I want to say something that absolutely cannot come from Elba, I'll revert to blue text, but that almost certainly won't happen.

With that said, on with the game!

Edited December 16, 2015 by Elbereth

[Amanuensis]

As for why I think the Diagrams would attack Venture instead of STINK you actually answer that yourself "Second, why would the Surgeon not protect Stink? " The diagrammists probably wanted to take down PMs and STINK did a better job of attracting protection as you say yourself. STINK was also on the verge of getting lynched and they wouldn't want to waste an attack on him. 

 

Fair point. And before anyone asks, my previous post wasn't me trying to say that it absolutely has to be a WGG; I just don't think it should be overlooked, and that every possible scenario be explored. Call me the King of Paranoia if you wish, but the fact that on the first cycle two different players got attacked and both just happened to be saved tells me something is fishy, and I find a Diagrammist attack more suspicious than a Cook's because the former can easily be coordinated while the latter requires a lot of what if scenarios falling perfectly in place.

[Paranoid King]

Fair point. And before anyone asks, my previous post wasn't me trying to say that it absolutely has to be a WGG; I just don't think it should be overlooked, and that every possible scenario be explored. Call me the King of Paranoia if you wish, but the fact that on the first cycle two different players got attacked and both just happened to be saved tells me something is fishy, and I find a Diagrammist attack more suspicious than a Cook's because the former can easily be coordinated while the latter requires a lot of what if scenarios falling perfectly in place.

...what.

This cannot happen. I'm the only paranoid king around here, thank you very much. The rest of you can be my advisers or something. You can advise me on how to be more paranoid. And then I'll fire you all to prevent anyone from getting too close to me.

Back on topic, I'm more inclined to think this is a WGG than otherwise. Having two people coincidentally attacked and protected in the same round would mean a lot of people are thinking alike. And it's difficult to get that level of coordination unless you have communication, which nobody but the eliminators have.

On the other hand, coincidences happen. And I suppose if everyone saw the same posts, they might think the same. And those who seem about to be lynched wouldn't be protected. But in that case, why not protect someone more obvious than venture?

I dunno how that would happen coincidentally. I'm giving it a 70% chance of being a WGG. My vote's on Venture.

Edit: just realized that a WGG would be done on someone more active. Venture probably isn't pulling a WGG.

Edited December 17, 2015 by Paranoid King

[Clanky]

...what.

 

This cannot happen. I'm the only paranoid king around here, thank you very much. The rest of you can be my advisers or something. You can advise me on how to be more paranoid. And then I'll fire you all to prevent anyone from getting too close to me.

 

Back on topic, I'm more inclined to think this is a WGG than otherwise. Having two people coincidentally attacked and protected in the same round would mean a lot of people are thinking alike. And it's difficult to get that level of coordination unless you have communication, which nobody but the eliminators have.

 

On the other hand, coincidences happen. And I suppose if everyone saw the same posts, they might think the same. And those who seem about to be lynched wouldn't be protected. But in that case, why not protect someone more obvious than venture?

 

I dunno how that would happen coincidentally. I'm giving it a 70% chance of being a WGG. My vote's on Venture.

Wait... Are you implying that you think Maill, Venture, both surgeons and the cook who attacked Maill are all traitors pulling a double WGG all on the same turn!?!

[Zas678]

I doubt it. Venture might be, but I think Mail had enough arrows pointed at him that his being targeted and protected is reasonable.

 

Venture was a pretty big target too, but just by the Diagramists- they had roleclaimed as a communication position that would make things more difficult for the Diagramists while not having nearly enough votes to have them waste a kill on someone being lynched (like the possible lynch of Stink, who has also roleclaimed as a runner). I don't see it outlandish that they were attacked and protected as well. It's still possible that it was all a set up- the Diagramists tell Venture to post as bait, then fake kill/protect him. That might explain why Venture avoided saying which side they were on- Venture didn't want a cook going after them.  

 

However, I would like to hear Venture and see what they have to say about it.