Long Game 1: In the Wake of the Koloss

[Metacognition]

I'm sure someone will point this out, but the Coinshot is a village only role. Giving the Spiked the ability to kill 2 players a night is not something I'd do (well, unless the Mistborn gets Coinshot, but that's what makes the Mistborn so deadly!).

[Claincy]

My OOC logic on why the Coinshot is Spiked. The attack on dyring wasn't a spiked attack, and just regular coinshot. But the coinshot attacked the lurcher before, and we now know he was a villager. So that's at least 2 non-spiked people attacked by the coinshot (I know theres a possibility of the first attack being Mistborn, but I just don't think so). I know there were a few people who wanted Beetle to stay alive for the night to Seek malil, but I just think if the Coinshot were on our side he would have taken a shot at him.

 

There's your problem, the coinshot is a villager only role. He *has* to be a villager, he (or she) just isn't doing too well for us so far :/

 

@dyring, I don't think you are spiked. I'm not fully certain but I don't think you are. Gamma's comment implied that it was somehow certain that you were and I was wondering why he was suddenly so certain.

 

Edite: Ninja'd by Meta

Edited January 12, 2014 by lord Claincy Ffnord

[dyring]

ok. Still, the coinshot might aswell be spiked since he´s helping them even if its unwittingly, cause hes tried two kills so far, the lurcher(likely, unless the mistborn drew that on that night) and me. And he picked me when there was a known spiked alive(beetle)

 

And this night we know it wasent the mistborn, since the mistborn had tin this night.

 

*edit Still, perhaps the coinshot can still learn. But its doubtful if he´s still listening to the spiked :/

Edited January 12, 2014 by dyring

[dyring]

(I was actually fishing for being attacked this round, was why I talked during the night. But I was trying to draw the real spiked attack to make them not kill anyone this round, not the coinshot )

 

The innkeeper spikes something to his wall.

 

"you all are stupid, so if they kill me, I need to post for you what to do. And maybe atleast Aether will listen, if its in the form of a list."

 

Mail - Medium suspicion of spiked. (*edit if he does ot object to Beetles statement either spiked or regular)

Aether - he or clancy is likely soother, the other coinshot?. Low chance of spiked

Clancy - He or aether is likely soother, the other coinshot?. Low chance of spiked.

Gambles - medium suspicion of spiked. If not spiked then regular villager.

Kukri - Possibly spiked, more likely fooled rioter(unless rioter is a spiked)

Beetle - Claimed seeker, known to be spiked.

Dyring - thug (innocent, strong, clever, and fantastic in every way)

Wilson - _Very_ likely spiked (voted for both innocents, and defending a known spiked)

Darnam - Likely regular, possibly soother or Rioter.

Mat - _very_ likely spiked (voting for both innocents, and defending a known spiked and being saved from votedeath by spiked.)

 

He then glares all around

 

"Now, here is the truth. Learn from it, and lets kill beetle!"

Edited January 12, 2014 by dyring

[Gamma Fiend]

Well I rescind my 'Coinshot is a Spiked' theory on account of not reading correctly and being owned by Meta. My B.

I guess Dyring could still technically be a spiked then still. Or Coinshot has just had horrible luck with targets.

Either way, I vote Beetle

Edit: Removing my vote until we get closer to the deadline and things become more clear.
Right now we're still just guessing.

Also, how long do we have in this cycle still?
 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Aether]

+1 for the list, Dyring!

 

I am going to be away for most of today, I think, so I'm going to vote now in case I won't come back before the day ends:

 

Having gone through his contract with Darnam, Aether knew what he had to do. "I vote Beetle."

 

If I get back in time, I shall go through the arguments and see if that changes anything. Darnam has been absent for a while, so I'm not even sure if our agreement is still ongoing.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Aether

[little wilson]

It's interesting. I've been making my own list, and it's very different from yours, Dyring.

Wilson: Regular Villager

Gambles: Regular Villager

Darnam: Regular Villager

Maill: Regular Villager

Beetle: Villager Seeker

Kurk: Villager Rioter (probably, but he could be the Villager Thug. And yes. I did just say "the" villager Thug)

Mat: Villager Soother

Porridge: Villager Coinshot

Aether: Spiked Mistborn

Clancy: Spiked Smoker

Dyring: Spiked Thug

After reading back over this entire game in the past day and a half, I can practically guarantee Aether and Clancy are Spiked. I had extremely strong suspicions toward Dyring as well, but he pretty much just confirmed it by clearing both Aether and Clancy.

To be noted: I might've mixed up Aether and Clancy's roles. One of them is definitely the Spiked Smoker. The other is the Mistborn.

I expect this to kill me either today or tonight. When it comes out that I am a Villager, all of you real Villagers out there, remember who I've listed as Spiked. You've gotta start banding together if you want to win this. Because they're pulling the wool over your eyes hardcore.

EDIT: Realized I forgot to vote. Dyring He's already lost one life. Might as well take the second now and reveal him for his real orientation. That'll leave the Coinshot available to go after one of the real threats.

Edited January 12, 2014 by little wilson

[dyring]

Yup. The difference wilson, is that I was right on both Gravy and edgar. While you continue to protect the proven spiked, Beetle.

 

And I noticed I forgot porridge. He was in among the scratched over where I grabbed my list.

 

He goes in among clancy aether and kukri, among the "propably not spiked. But one of the possible coincshot/soother/rioter.

Guess one of soother/rioter might be spiked too.

Edited January 12, 2014 by dyring

[bartbug]

Okay, Dyring. We were lucky this round, enough so that we got two Seekers. We accidently killed one, and now it's time for us to use the other. There is no "100%" accurate evidence against me. Let's go over what you have given me:

 

 

"Maybe its many, but surely that little urchin beetle is one of em. He should die. Its not much of a loss if it ent him anyway."

This is literally all of the reasoning he gave for me, and this was one of the very first votes. *relatively*

 

 

Dyring grumbles angrily 'Wisened up finaly have you lot? I told you about that beggar already yesterday. Filthy creature, thieving and trying to sneak in here all the time without buying anything. He is up to no good I tell you! Where is that little despiccable saboteur? I'll give him a good bashing if hes in here fouling up my fine inn again
'

dyring votes for beetle again.

That's reason number two. Once again, and in game and irrelevant thing.

 

Dyring is still voting for Beetle for execution no. 2

 

But Edgar came forward while beetle had more votes then himself. He had a good chance at getting away anyway. Would be a silly risk.

Beetle just came forward cause he had several votes on himself already.

Okay, dyring. I "came forward" yes, because I was about to die. Yes, Edgar did take a silly risk. I looked more credible, so he ended up dead. He should've kept his trap shut and gathered more evidence. (I am really, really surprised that I'm not dead yet. I think it must be some type of convoluted game theory. Spiked think that the coinshot will kill me, don't want to waste an attack, coinshot thinks Spiked).

 

 

"Quinn is dead, after me, he was the strongest in arguing for Beetles death. And someone tried to kill me for what I´v been saying. Do you believe me know, or do you all want to help the urchin and his friends kill more people?

Seeking, phew. Either mail is spiked, or it was a guess if it was correct. Not that it matters, would not be a hard guess. They know who most of us metalborn are by now."

So, someone obviously wants me to not die, probably because they think that I'm the Seeker. And if you two are trying to kill me, then it looks like you are spiked. And there is no way in hell that I would guess what Maill was. If I was Spiked, I would claim that he was copper clouded or something. Which I am not doing.

 

 

Beetle - Claimed seeker, known to be spiked.

And this came from where? Did Edgar Seek me from behind the grave or something?

 

Sorry, Dyring, but there is absolutely no solid evidence, just conjecture from how I was the second person to vote for Grayv. Which tells us that I think ties are a bad idea.

[Mailliw73]

I swear on the first-edition copies of all of Brandon's books (even the unpublished ones) that what Beetle called me out as is 100% correct. I realize that Regular Villagers are a majority so therefore could've been a guess. I have my doubts about Beetle, but I also trust him somewhat now. My gut says to vote for Kukri so for now,that is my vote. Feel free to try and change my opinions, but no guarantees.

Edit:Changed my vote

Edited January 13, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Kurkistan]

Vote tally:

Beetle (3?): Dyring, Aether

-Tentative: Gambles

Dyring (1): Wilson

Kukri (1): Maill

 

That still leaves:

Clancy, Beetle, Darnam, Mat, Kukri, and Porridge undecided.

 

There are 11 left.

 

The ratio of Villager-Spiked is now either 7/4 or 8/3.

 

-------------------

 

My thoughts on Beetle:

 

It doesn't really hurt us that much to keep him around. The only really "dangerous" role that the Spiked can have now (since Smoker doesn't affect us if we don't have a Seeker) is mistborn. Rioter/Soother are only dangerous, at the moment, if we're all very stupid and don't bother to construct "formal majorities" for every vote.

 

----

 

Aside: Actually, request to Meta: are we allowed to "conditionally vote" kind of like Clancy tried to do that one time? So everyone says "I vote for X, but if the end of the day comes and Y has the majority I want to vote for Y?" That would solve all of our Soother/Rioter-related fears.

 

----

 

Back on track: The Spiked do have the mistborn, but we have either a 1/4 or 1/3 chance of any given Spiked being the mistborn. If Beetle is Spiked, it's highly doubtful that he's the mistborn, as they wouldn't want to expose their most valuable piece for a gambit like this. Remember that they can communicate freely at all times, and so could coordinate this all very well.

 

Therefore, it is unlikely to the extreme that, if we mob-killed Beetle, we'd do the Spiked any real harm besides reducing their numbers by one. They will still be just as effective as if we hadn't killed Beetle today, when all is said and done. We'll be back at square 1 tomorrow, having to pick a victim from a Beetle-less pool.

 

At this stage in the game, we can wait a night or two before killing Beetle even if he is Spiked. Imagine a scenario: Meta slips up and posts in such a way as to prove unequivically to us that player Z is spiked and not the mistborn. What profit do we gain from killing him immediately, if we have other people we think are Spiked? Player Z is no real threat if we simply disregard his word and outweigh his vote.

 

There is a small price, I'll admit: Our chances of killing a Spiked at random go up as there are fewer and fewer villages to choose from (since they've been murdered). In this way, we benefit from killing Z today if only because we'll have a higher chance of picking another Spiked tomorrow, when there will be one less villager, then we do today. The odds don't change that much at this stage, though.

 

On top of this, Beetle may actually be the Seeker. In that case, we will know his role for sure when he dies, and we can be sure of everyone he has ever Seeked and told us the allegiance of. If we kill Beetle now and he's the Seeker, then Gambles and Maill will be known to be 100% trustworthy. If we kill him tomorrow and he's the Seeker, then Gambles, Maill, and <Someone else> will have that distinction.

 

---

 

I'll refrain from voting for the moment because I don't want to bias the discussion and it is early days yet.

[PorridgeBrick]

I'm voting for Dyring. I'm suspicious of Beetle too, but Dyring is being way over the top in trying to get us to vote for him. And just like Kurkistan said, we don't lose much by leaving Beetle alive if he is Seeker, so Dyring's attitude is just... Fishy.

Also, if Beetle is the actual Seeker, he is probably going to be killed tonight, since now there's no Lurcher that could protect him and he'd be a big threat to the Spiked. Why kill him to find out if he's Spiked, when there's a good chance tonight will prove it?

Edited January 12, 2014 by PorridgeBrick

[dyring]

Simply put, while I´m leaning heavily on a few others being spiked, Beetle is the one I know. So thats where my vote goes.

 

Its quite telling that besides me, it was Quinn who the most wanted Beetle dead, and he was killed by the spiked, removing one vote.

 

And it might very well be beetle who is the mistborn spiked, that is something we do not know. They didnt expose him out of choice, he was already getting alot of votes when he stepped out claiming to be seeker.

 

And lastly. First day, mat was the first target, people got talked around into going for gravy. He was innocent.

 

second day, Beetle was going to die, but people got talked around to going for Edgar. He was innocent.

 

Now, the spiked are quite obvious very good in getting a bunch of people to switch to vote for someone innocent. Sure you want to do that again?

 

And porridge. Given how much I want beetle dead, had I been spiked, dont you think he would have died tonight? Isnt it odd that the spiked didnt touch the claimed seeker? Consider that of the innocents who´s died, I never voted for them.

 

*edit

I might have agreed with you Kukri, if we had had another target as likely as beetle to be spiked. We dont.

its also suspicious that he picked so low prio targets. Gamble, jason, who not one of the more outspoken early targets?

Edited January 12, 2014 by dyring

[bartbug]

Well, now that's convenient. Since I'm alive, you can say that you're practically proven innocent because of that. Maybe the Spiked thought that the coinshot would kill me and didn't want to waste the chance to get two villagers down in one go. 

<This is just speculation. Seriously, this is just idle speculation. In the end, it comes down to that scene in the Princess Bride. I know that you know etc. My reasons for voting for Dyring are the ones that have been put up before.>

My vote is for Dyring, but I want it to be clear that this can be changed very easily. It is early in the day.

[Kurkistan]

@Dyring

 

"Getting talked around" is not a guarantee that the Spiked are spinmasters controlling our minds. Was the same person/group of people doing the "talking" each time?

 

Also, exactly 3 people had voted for Beetle by the point he said he was a Seeker. Hardly a case of "already getting alot of votes".

 

Actually, now dyring is looking pretty darn suspicious.

 

:In response to your edited-in response to me:

 

We actually have quite a few targets besides Beetle that have been suggested. Who would you want to kill today, if Beetle was off the menu?

 

EDIT: Spelling, fixed a quote.

 

EDIT 2: New list:

 

Vote tally:

Beetle (3?): Dyring, Aether

-Tentative: Gambles

Dyring (4): Wilson, Porridge, Beetle, Kukri

Kukri (1): Maill

 

That still leaves:

Clancy, Darnam, Mat undecided.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Kurkistan

[bartbug]

Um, I voted.

[Kurkistan]

Um, I voted.

 

Yes you did. Yes you did.  *fixes it*

Edited January 12, 2014 by Kurkistan

[dyring]

If beetle was already dead I would propably go for Wilson, on the rather weak proof that he voted for both the innocents, and I simply have gotten the feeling hes up to no good.

 

But as I said, thats weak.

 

Early on I had flashing lights on Aether, I dont suspect him as strongly anymore, cant really say why.

[Aether]

I'm kind of surprised there aren't about 10 new pages since I've been away. Oh, well, quicker to read through this way.

 

Now, Kukri has already made a fine list, but I'm the list guy, so here is one from me:

• Beetle - (2) Dyring, Gamma, Aether, 
• Dyring - (4) Wilson, Porridge, Beetle, Kukri, 
• Kukri - (1) Maill, 
• Currently not voting - (4) Gambles, Clancy, Darnam, Mat

The vote can still be swung either way, and that is without counting the effect of the Rioter of Soother (I am assuming only one of each, mostly because the vote has only been affected once).

 

I am currently having my doubts about Beetle. I never originally suspected him that much, but thought either him or Edgar would have to have been spiked. Now, I am not so sure, especially considering Dyring's seemingly irrational persecution of him.

 

It seems likely to me that the Spiked has infiltrated all three of the voting blocks from yesterday. If Beetle turns out to have been spiked after all, then I assume that Wilson is too. Quinn proved to be innocent, but I think Dyring have a good chance of being spiked. He also fits with the outspoken type of player I described earlier. 

 

In my voting block, I really do not know. I am guessing Darnam, if only because he was the one who suggested pooling our votes in the first place, which made us crucify one Seeker (though admittedly, I was the one who wanted to go for Edgar first) and with the risk of killing a second one as well, if Beetle really is what he says he is and we end up killing him today.

 

My vote is still with Beetle to honour the agreement, but if Darnam doesn't come back to follow up on our deal, I'll consider it void and might end up voting otherwise.

 

EDIT: I forgot Mat.

Edited January 13, 2014 by Aether

[dyring]

I doubt darnam will come back, and he is almost certainly not spiked. He was quite convinced that beetle was spiked and edgar innocent, and seemed to take it a tad more serious then he should when votes where starting to rack up on Edgar.

 

Absolutely no reason for him to react that way if he was spiked, if he was spiked that would be good.

 

So situation is actually one worse then one would think, and Darnam is unlikely to come back and vote. Thus there is one villager (wether regular or with a role) that won´t vote, so easier for the spiked.

 

Heh, the fun would be if beetle and I was both unspiked. In that scenario, it would be Wilson, and propably Kukri and porridge that was the spiked ones. Biggest chance is still that Beetle is spiked, and tbh, killing him, even had he been innocent, would give us some "safe" villagers.

 

I might agree to change to Wilson, if someone gets enough votes together thou. But still prefer Beetle.

Edited January 12, 2014 by dyring

[Metacognition]

Aside: Actually, request to Meta: are we allowed to "conditionally vote" kind of like Clancy tried to do that one time? So everyone says "I vote for X, but if the end of the day comes and Y has the majority I want to vote for Y?" That would solve all of our Soother/Rioter-related fears.

 

 

 

No. Notice the last time, I didn't actually switch Clancy's vote, even though Durnam switched his. I'll make a few exceptions, but for the most part, I won't allow such conditional voting. That would defeat the purpose of voting and make two roles basically useless. 

 

 

 

Imagine a scenario: Meta slips up

 

Heh. Heh, Heh. Ha. Haha! HAHAHA! AH-HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Edited January 12, 2014 by Metacognition

[Aether]

Absolutely no reason for him to react that way if he was spiked, if he was spiked that would be good.

Actually, it could be a rather good tactic for defusing any built up suspicion. His vote still isn't needed for another, oh, 12 hours? And if he is spiked, he could still be in discussion with his comrades. If he happens to be the Coinshot (I don't think it is likely, but entertain the notion for a second), then he's orders are given by PMs to the GM. Just because he hasn't showed up openly in the Thread doesn't mean he's not playing.

 

I am not willing to rule him out just because he hasn't said much for a while.

[Gamma Fiend]

Gambles was sitting alone, fidgeting with his dice. Rolling them over and over again. Thinking.
"We've been wrong about everything this entire time," He said aloud, to nobody in particular. He was drunk and just rambling off at the mouth at whatever thoughts came to mind.
"Every time we reach a decision, we end up being dead wrong, killing innocents. The Spiked have been toying and messing with our emotions this entire time."
He was in a full rant now. "We've been subtly persuaded and tricked into making these decisions this entire time."
He stopped and took a sip from his bottle, and was distracted by Aether, the town scholar, strolling over and hammering up more lists.

Him and those damned lists! Gambles thought furiously, Of course! It's perfect!

Gambles stood up quickly, turning his chair over and drawing everybody's eyes to him.
"These Spiked have been tricking us this entire time! We've been wrong about EVERYTHING!" He shouted the last word, anger starting to take ahold of him.
"Who among us has avoided the most suspicion? Who have we trusted the MOST?" He paused and looked around. And then pointed at Aether
"Aether," Gambles spat, "Aether and his lists. Aether the friendly scholar, who nobody seems to suspect. Earning our trust, taking our votes. Calling everybody's attention to his damned lists! Don't you see? That's how the spiked have been keeping track of us this WHOLE time! They've been flaunting it in our faces the entire time! Secretly laughing behind our backs, tracking our progress of killing the innocents and plotting our murders at night.
"It's Aether, I tell you!"

OOC: Why vote for Aether? Why the heck not?   Its been pretty odd that Aether has never been suspected. Him and his lists have been a pretty good cover up.
And it seems this game is all but lost anyway at this point, might as well have some fun and hang the scholar!

Edit: Changed my vote from Aether. (although those lists are still pretty shady)
 

Edited January 13, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[bartbug]

To Aether: Seriously? So you're deal with Darnam wasn't just a vote, it was you would try and kill me until I is dead. You've already voted against me once. Shouldn't that be null and void already?

 

EDIT: Well, that's a convenient excuse for your continued vote.

Edited January 13, 2014 by bartbug

[Claincy]

Now that I am awake, home from work and caught up on your I can finally post (Stupid timezones)

 

So it appears that Aether/Darnam/my alliance has dissolved As Darnam may have left the game fully anyway. Oh well, at least now I can vote for who I want to rather than voting for someone whom I didn't want to for the purpose of building an alliance. With that said, as initially unlikely as having two seekers seemed, Beetle's continuing success with seeking leads me to suspect him even less than I did before. I'm not 100% certain obviously but I don't think he is spiked. Even if he is I agree with Kurkistan's logic that we won't actually gain from killing him now as opposed to tomorrow.

 

With that said and a belief that Beetle is innocent, Dyring is perhaps the most suspicious player at the moment and his continued aggression against our seeker makes him even more suspicious on top of the reasons that have already been eloquently put by others over the past couple of pages. Beyond being the most suspicious he has collated a few votes already and we desperately need to kill a spiked with this vote, a deadlock will be the death of us all. If Darnam returns and he and Aether and I agree on someone who we think is spiked (and convince me that they are actually trustworthy, I'm not so sure that I threw in with the right people anymore, I may have been too desperate to get a group together) I may change my vote, but for now I vote (with relative confidence) for Dyring.

 

(Sorry Dyring)