[Spoilers] 2 Firefight Errors

[Voidus]

Manhattan stretches roughly NE to SW in a long oval. I don't know that it's even 3 miles wide so it seems like they'd need to be looking outside of the island as well?

Google map

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY/@40.7428061,-74.0121463,11z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x89c2588f046ee661:0xa0b3281fcecc08c">https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY/@40.7428061,-74.0121463,11z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x89c2588f046ee661:0xa0b3281fcecc08c

Oops! After a discussion with curi and Tempus, we realized, since her range is (supposedly) 5 miles, that means those circles need to be 10 miles in diameter. That more than encompasses the entire island of Manhattan, so really there's no part of the island she can't reach, no matter where she is on it. They need datapoints from outside the city to really make any headway!

 

Huh, I thought it was over 10 miles long. To be fair she needs to be in the precise center to get that range so they'd still be able to (Just) Locate her if she appeared at the extremes of the island.

[RShara]

It's about 13 miles long, so from either tip, they'd get a little info, but it'd basically be, "She's not at this end."  You have to be in the vicinity of the blue circles in order to get any decent information.

[Voidus]

It's about 13 miles long, so from either tip, they'd get a little info, but it'd basically be, "She's not at this end."  You have to be in the vicinity of the blue circles in order to get any decent information.

If they got two points exactly 10 miles apart (Assuming her range was precisely 5 miles, although I think they said just under) they could tell the base was at the midpoint.

As others also pointed out though even if she doesn't appear somewhere that doesn't necessarily count as a definite negative that it's outside her range so that makes it even harder.

I think I said it a page or so again but yeah the problem is almost that the data points they need would be even more specific than just South east. Like say they need a data point between the brooklyn and manhattan bridges.

How did you do that circle thing on google maps?

[RShara]

Yeah, having datapoints at the far ends of the city would work, but that'd leave them ~3 miles in the center of the city.  If that area is about 3 miles wide, that leaves them 9 square miles to search through, which is huge in a city.  I think that either the range or the datapoint requests need to be fixed since as they stand, they don't make a lot of sense.  Maybe her range should be 5km instead of 5m? 

 

Voidus, I took a screenshot of the map, and used Photoshop to add the circles.

[Observer]

My copy of Firefight is being read by a friend. What are all the places where Regalia's range are mentioned? Trying to figure out if David ever said radius, and how likely it is that he doesn't know how circles work. If Tia said it, then we have a genuine error. If what there's five of or in what is left unclear, then we're good.

[RShara]

 

“This, then,” Tia said, taking a sip of her cola, “should probably be the core of our plan. We need to locate Regalia. I’ve told you that the functional range on her abilities is just under five miles. We should be able to use that knowledge to pinpoint where she’s hiding.”

 

“I’ve considered this before,” Exel said, thoughtful. “A five-mile radius means she could be almost anywhere in Babilar and still have influence here. Her base could be over in old New Jersey, even.”

“Yes,” Tia said, “but each time she appears, she narrows that down for us. Since she can only make projections five miles away from wherever her base is, each time she does appear, we learn more about where she might be.”

 

We pick predetermined locations and set up situations we’re sure will provoke Regalia to appear via one of her projections. If she does appear in that location, we get a data point. If she doesn’t, that might be outside her range. Do this enough times, and I’m sure I’ll be able to pinpoint her location.”

 

So they realize the problem, but are really fuzzy about the solution, because their idea really shouldn't work if they stay inside of Manhattan.

[Bloodfalcon]

I agree with both of these being errors. More just oversights than errors, but 5 mile radius should need more than a couple points to begin with if we are being generous, and in context it is only David whose classification we are concerned with, and he is the one who says 2 High Epics. They can be explained away and swept under the rug (which is the good kind of oversight), but I do think they are inaccurate. 

[Fifth of Daybreak]

This is again, assuming that all areas on the map are useful points. How high is the water level? I was under the impression the entire time that it was high enough to cover if not a majority, but a good number of buildings that aren't high enough to reach the top. Here's a nice chart I found showing the building heights. A good majority of the tallest buildings are in the southern portion, so I assume they would have wanted to push northward first, to rule out the taller sections. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We also need to remember that they were working under flawed parameters. We don't know what information Tia was working with, or where the points were. It's a possible scenario that they were able to get a point fixed on the northernmost portion of the island, and that would rule out a good portion of the southern, but, they couldn't venture northward in order to narrow it down further. That would mean they needed it in the southern portion. The tip of the island is about where they wouldn't want to try, as it was ruled out by an earlier point. Now it's just depending on which buildings they were looking at as potential hideouts. If they were more on the western side, it would make more sense to go on the southeast. We can't assume that their information is flawed, since we don't know the information. It wouldn't be too hard to create a scenario where that is the only area that could yield more data. 
 

 

 

EDIT: This also leads me to the assumption that David's venture in Central Park did absolutely nothing to help, and Tia was exaggerating the merits of his help in order to gratify him.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Fifth of Daybreak

[PeterAhlstrom]

The water level is different in different parts of the city.

 

Okay, so I just talked to Brandon. We're not math people, but we did the best we could to try to get this triangulation thing to work. It seems we didn't get it quite right. What's the easiest fix or set of fixes that you can think of to get it to work?

[RShara]

Wow really, she can control that much water that closely?  That's pretty neat.

 

Instead of Tia saying that she needed datapoints to the SE, the North, NorthEast (in the water) or SSW would all be helpful.  SE, W and NW are largely unhelpful due to the narrowness of the land/water in those directions.

 

If you want to go the slightly more difficult route, 5 kilometers instead of 5 miles would work.  Or, they are willing to go outside of Manhattan.

Edited January 16, 2015 by RShara

[Douglas]

The water level is different in different parts of the city.

 

Okay, so I just talked to Brandon. We're not math people, but we did the best we could to try to get this triangulation thing to work. It seems we didn't get it quite right. What's the easiest fix or set of fixes that you can think of to get it to work?

 

The key elements are that:

a) only the most distant data points in any given direction matter

you need distant data points in different directions, the more different the better

c) if the suspected zone is long and narrow, you need distant points along the long axis most

d) a data point in one direction is usually about as good as a data point in the opposite direction, but having both is much better

 

If the initial suspected zone is "the island of Manhattan", that's pretty long in the northeast/southwest direction. Data points at the tips will be most helpful. If done at the upper extreme of the believed range, a pair of northeast/southwest data points would result in a strip about as long as the island is narrow, and proportionately narrow. Essentially, take Manhattan, rotate it 90 degrees, and shrink it so it fits inside the pre-rotated Manhattan, and that's a decent approximation of the suspect zone you'd get from a good pair of opposite-tips-of-the-island Regalia appearances.

 

Once that's done, narrowing the suspect zone further requires data points in different directions from what you've already got. Something fully perpendicular would be best. Supposing that this is how the Reckoners went about it, wanting a southeast data point as the finishing touch actually makes pretty good sense. If they already got a northwest Regalia appearance to chop the smaller suspect zone in half, a southwest appearance at the right distance would do the most to shrink the zone without relying on how precisely you know her range.

 

However, the northwest and southeast appearances would have to be well away from Manhattan itself to be meaningful because of how much larger her range is than the island's width in that direction. Also, any appearance in Central Park is practically useless data because it's too close to the suspect zone's center.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Douglas

[Voidus]

The water level is different in different parts of the city.

 

Okay, so I just talked to Brandon. We're not math people, but we did the best we could to try to get this triangulation thing to work. It seems we didn't get it quite right. What's the easiest fix or set of fixes that you can think of to get it to work?

I don't think there's really anything that needs tweaking, depending upon how accurately they 'knew' Regalia's range.

If they found two data point in opposite directions which were 10 miles apart (Supposing a 5 mile radius) then the base would be exactly at the midpoint, it's theoretically possible with just two data points if they know the radius accurately enough.

[RShara]

Except it can be anywhere along that line, which is around 3 miles wide.  That's still a lot of buildings.

[Voidus]

Except it can be anywhere along that line, which is around 3 miles wide.  That's still a lot of buildings.

Not if the two circles are exactly twice the radius, then it's only at the very point of overlap that Regalia could be at.

[RShara]

Mmmm.  Yeah, that could work.  But that would only work if her range is exactly 5 miles, which seems unlikely (maybe?).  Points to the N, NE, SW are still the most useful if we're limited to the island, but a couple of points off the island to the E and W would be awfully handy.

[Voidus]

Mmmm.  Yeah, that could work.  But that would only work if her range is exactly 5 miles, which seems unlikely (maybe?).  Points to the N, NE, SW are still the most useful if we're limited to the island, but a couple of points off the island to the E and W would be awfully handy.

Yeah so it depends how accurately they know her range. But yeah any two points on the circumference of the circle inscribed by her range would theoretically do the trick, but it's unlikely that she'd make appearances at such a specific distance straight off, still with enough data points it seems possible, though as you say some points off the island to either E or W would be incredibly useful.

[RShara]

So the simplest fix for the error would be to change the text from "southeastern" to "northeastern" and it should be a reasonable theory.

[Douglas]

No, southeast works fine if northeast and southwest were what they went for first. It's Central Park that doesn't help, but that was more an incidental than a deliberate attempt to get data.

[Fifth of Daybreak]

I still don't think the direction is a problem if the range is narrowed down. The biggest problem I see is that she could just as easily be in New(old?) Jersey as in Babilar with her current range. If that's clipped a bit, then the direction shouldn't be an issue for the reasons I've already given.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Fifth of Daybreak

[vineyarddawg]

I still don't think the direction is a problem if the range is narrowed down. The biggest problem I see is that she could just as easily be in New(old?) Jersey as in Babilar with her current range. If that's clipped a bit, then the direction shouldn't be an issue for the reasons I've already given.

 

Yeah, this is actually the biggest hole in the Reckoners' logic to me.  If you look at the map of Manhattan and the surrounding area as it exists today, it should be fairly obvious that the circle of Regalia's powers could include a location in New Jersey or in any of NYC's boroughs. 

 

IMO, the easiest "fix" for this would be to say that since Regalia can keep water levels at different heights over a large area, then she just submerged enough of the New Jersey and New York coastlines to make it so there was a 5-mile radius around Babylar. 

[Fifth of Daybreak]

Yeah, this is actually the biggest hole in the Reckoners' logic to me. If you look at the map of Manhattan and the surrounding area as it exists today, it should be fairly obvious that the circle of Regalia's powers could include a location in New Jersey or in any of NYC's boroughs.

IMO, the easiest "fix" for this would be to say that since Regalia can keep water levels at different heights over a large area, then she just submerged enough of the New Jersey and New York coastlines to make it so there was a 5-mile radius around Babylar.

They come in from New Jersey. Also, isn't the Reckoners' base in Long Island? That puts it within her possible range as is unless I'm mistaken.

The Reckoners are working with flawed information as it is, so I think the easiest fix would be to have Prof say she has to be in Manhattan to maintain her submersion with that precise control, and then clip her to four or three and a half miles. It won't matter that Prof's wrong, since he's wrong anyways.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Fifth of Daybreak

[RShara]

No, southeast works fine if northeast and southwest were what they went for first. It's Central Park that doesn't help, but that was more an incidental than a deliberate attempt to get data.

No, because a datapoint on the southeast of the city would basically cover the entire area, and really wouldn't narrow anything down.

[Fifth of Daybreak]

No, because a datapoint on the southeast of the city would basically cover the entire area, and really wouldn't narrow anything down.

That can be said about any data point with her range so wide. If all their data is at the top, it cuts off the southwest as a base location, and then Southeast is a viable option. I can draw up a diagram that demonstrates a possible scenario where SE is the best place to go if you like.

[RShara]

That can be said about any data point with her range so wide. If all their data is at the top, it cuts off the southwest as a base location, and then Southeast is a viable option. I can draw up a diagram that demonstrates a possible scenario where SE is the best place to go if you like.

Sure

[PeterAhlstrom]

I am interested in that 5 kilometers idea. An ideal fix would change the fewest possible number of words in the book, without adding or subtracting sentences.