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Could this be it? Could this be a sign of the Elusive Supreme Lynchmaster returning?!
 
The more I think of it, the more I'm 50-50 about Joe and Wilson's logic. I think people have made good points about Wilson's inconsistencies: for instance--a general tendency to flag people as suspicious for things she's doing: flagging my (earlier) acknowledgement of my innocence when she'd basically kept declaring she was good, as well as Meta noting that the charge of Eliminator-strategising could easily go both ways.

At the same time, though, I don't think those inconsistencies are conclusive and they certainly have good replies possible--although a player like Wilson...I wouldn't trust myself to be able to determine if it is or isn't telling. I'm iffy about the logic of "Well, Wilson's a good player so she wouldn't reveal if she had an important role."

My impression was that if you role-blocked someone and there was no kill--even with all the attendent uncertainties in this game, such as whether or not the Lighteyes have been lying about not skipping the battle, or whether the kills hit a Scout, or Aladar's men, or...--well, even with all those uncertainties, it seems to me to be something pretty useful to know. Why don't you think so?

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Could this be it? Could this be a sign of the Elusive Supreme Lynchmaster returning?!

 

You know what?  I really, really liked that title.  

 

 

You know what would be really funny?  If one of the spies was an officer, who just happened to roleblock another officer, who happened to be the other spy, then the officer spy decided to kill the other spy so that they would all believe the officer spy was an officer good guy.  

 

Funny, and also completely far fetched and improbable.  

 

And seriously, how many officers do we think there are?  I'm in the "I believe Wilson is good" camp again, for the moment.  

 

The other possibility: Maybe Wilson is bad and Twei is good, and Wilson isn't actually the officer, but Wilson doesn't think that Twei would come on and defend himself.  Hmm who's Twei... wait nobody is Twei.  A nickname from a previous game?  I assume it's twelfthrootoftwo.  Well, since twelfthrootoftwo hasn't posted yet this cycle, that's actually possible.  So I'm going to wait to see if twelfthrootoftwo attempts to refute this before I throw my vote on there.  

 

 

Edit: I blame Austre, God of Colors

Edited by Newan
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Wilson(1):Mailliw

Only Joe(1): Kasimir

Winter Cloud(1): Newan

12th Root of 2(1): Wilson, 

 

Storm it Wilson, If you had said anything other than Officer, I would have continued to Lynch you. But I don't think we have another one of those.

 

I officially have no idea what to do now. I just went an reread all of Twei's Posts. He supported Meta's Lighteye Vote Plan early on, then he expressed Suspicion of Wilson.

Edited by The Only Joe
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Highstorm is at the end of this cycle. Meaning no actions this cycle. Only a lynch. And there's no way to escape that lynch.

 

It's called laying out my logic so people can see how I got to where I am. I'm no longer completely convinced of Odysa's guilt. She said something a bit ago (toward the beginning of this cycle) that got me to rethink things. Would I still like explanations from her on some of those things I mentioned? Sure. But I'm not gung-ho toward her anymore. My sights have moved onto better targets.

 

Different game, different strategy. In LG9, the SK was a threat because he could stalk other people, not see their alignment, and I had a role he would want to be rid of. Plus, he can only win by himself. In this game, the spies can win together. It's about figuring out who's on your side as well. While I wouldn't use the term "protect" in reference to the other spies, if I were a spy, I would be trying to figure it out.

I have someone I'd like to cast a vote on, but doing so would require me to reveal my role, so I think I'm just going to let this play out a little more. If others seem to want to lynch me too, I'll reveal it, but until then....

I would, however, like to hear from Aonar. He's normally a little more active than this. I don't expect him to respond today, since he said he's got karate on Thursday, but I've noticed he checks in here pretty often throughout the day (both today and yesterday), but he never posts.

Oh. I thought it meant next cycle. Okay, thanks.

 

Laying out your logic is one thing. Using wording that assumes Odysa's guilt is different. The way you said "her teammate is" or "Odysa did _____" sounds like you know that she's guilty. 

 

Okay, I will at least concede on this point. I forgot about the SK's stalking.

 

As you said, Officer is the only role a Lighteyes could have that would help discover someone. So, I don't know why you didn't just announce it once you said what you did. Hiding the role that is obvious to everyone else doesn't make sense. 

 

This post did convince me slightly of your innocence, but more than that, it's the fact that this is too easy. You're a better player than this, so why does so much of what you say contradict and implicate yourself? Even when you're evil, it's not like this. For now, I'm leaving my vote. I'll wait until Twei gets on to defend herself before I decide to test your claim.

 

Edit:

 

 

And seriously, how many officers do we think there are?  I'm in the "I believe Wilson is good" camp again, for the moment.  

 

The other possibility: Maybe Wilson is bad and Twei is good, and Wilson isn't actually the officer, but Wilson doesn't think that Twei would come on and defend himself.  Hmm who's Twei... wait nobody is Twei.  A nickname from a previous game?  I assume it's twelfthrootoftwo.  Well, since twelfthrootoftwo hasn't posted yet this cycle, that's actually possible.  So I'm going to wait to see if twelfthrootoftwo attempts to refute this before I throw my vote on there.  

 

 

Edit: I blame Austre, God of Colors

 

 

Yes, Twei is Torwel who is played by twelfthrootoftwo.

Edited by Mailliw73
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You know what?  I really, really liked that title.  

It's always been your title. You just need to reclaim it. :P

Anyway: Torwel is Twei, yes. Racine, if you prefer, Wandrin :P

Well, I think it's one piece of information, but we can't tunnel in and focus on this thing with Wilson and Twei. I agree we need to hear from Twei, but we can't do anything about that for now, and one other thing this whole morass serves is to just divert our attention too.

Given that Jost was the one to call down the balefire and confirm Jain's lynch, I'm going to take my vote off him (I mostly wanted to hear his logic anyway), and I'm going to put a vote on Mek because I'd like something more solid than RP that isn't directed towards anything going on. I guess if King isn't going to lead the Wyrm Inquisition, then I'll see what I can do.

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*sigh* I am way too tired to not misread everything, or to be able to keep up with the discussion.

 

Kas and Joe, who did you put the Lighteye vote on? It might not be very important, but it could help us know what Jain did with his (and knowing what one spy did would be good). Also, we should probably figure out if we need a different plan for the vote if nobody's following it.

Edited by luckat
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I'm not quite sure I understand where all the heat is coming from when it comes to Wilson, or any other light eyes for that matter. I'm running with the general consensus that there are 4 spies, meaning I think it very unlikely that there would be another one other than jain in that group. I'm certainly not saying its not a possibility, although when we have a highstorm coming up where whoever is lynched is certain to die, there's no way I will be putting my vote on Joe, Kas, Macen or Wilson. This may be inexperience or naivety, but that's what I'm running with at the moment.

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My impression was that if you role-blocked someone and there was no kill--even with all the attendent uncertainties in this game, such as whether or not the Lighteyes have been lying about not skipping the battle, or whether the kills hit a Scout, or Aladar's men, or...--well, even with all those uncertainties, it seems to me to be something pretty useful to know. Why don't you think so?

 

Is that question directed toward me?

 

Also, Joe, I actually have a habit of revealing my role when I have one. I mean, there was the time I was Aiel-Blooded and I told Kas and Wes almost right off the bat. Granted, that wasn't an important role so it may not matter, but the fact that the darkfriends found out I was Aiel-Blooded is the only reason I survived that game. More importantly, there was mitosis last game. I'd say that was a pretty dang powerful and important role. Wanna know how long it took me to hint that I had it? Less than a half a cycle. By the start of the second cycle, Ren, Gamma, and Aonar all knew I had Mitosis. So.....yeah. Important roles and not revealing them? That logic doesn't really fly in regards to me. Because I do. Quite frequently.

 

Laying out your logic is one thing. Using wording that assumes Odysa's guilt is different. The way you said "her teammate is" or "Odysa did _____" sounds like you know that she's guilty. 

 

As you said, Officer is the only role a Lighteyes could have that would help discover someone. So, I don't know why you didn't just announce it once you said what you did. Hiding the role that is obvious to everyone else doesn't make sense. 

 

This post did convince me slightly of your innocence, but more than that, it's the fact that this is too easy. You're a better player than this, so why does so much of what you say contradict and implicate yourself? Even when you're evil, it's not like this. For now, I'm leaving my vote. I'll wait until Twei gets on to defend herself before I decide to test your claim.

 

At that point in time, I did think I knew that.

 

Revealing my role in a PM to select people of my choosing is one thing. Announcing it in the thread for all to see is something entirely different. So I was hesitant to reveal unless it was dire. But almost immediately after saying that, I realized that there was only one lighteyes role that could find that kind of information. So I debated there for about ten minutes whether I should just have out with it and skip the waiting, or wait for a little bit longer. And then Kas pointed it out, ending my internal debate. Should I have revealed right off the bat? Probably, yes. But at the same time, I knew people would do exactly what they are doing: saying it's too easy and wondering if I'm lying about my role. Hence that debate, even when I knew everyone would know my role.

 

I believe some of the problem here is that when I wasn't completely taking the game seriously, I wasn't thinking through how everyone else would weigh my posts. I should've been. When I called Kas out, I genuinely considered it suspicious. And then I did pretty much the same thing. Did I view it as the same, in my not-taking-the-game-seriously head? At the time, no. Not at all. If I had, I wouldn't have done it. But again, I wasn't taking it seriously. I'd like to think that if we were to completely ignore everything that I said before about, oh, 28 hours ago, you wouldn't be seeing contradictions. But you're right. I'm not like this when I'm evil. That's because I take the game very seriously right from the start when I am. I haven't played this badly since LG1....

 

Note to self: next time your threat level goes up, skip a few games. Your head clearly isn't on straight in the one right after. >>

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Haven't yet read WoT, but doesn't Balefire Completely erase a Person from the Cycle of Life? Does this mean that Panda has to come up with a new Character now? Anyway.

 

I put my Vote on Wilson.

 

"Storms, why would Brightlord-"

 

"Not BrightLord, just Jain." Sani interrupted him. "Dalinar stripped him of his rank, remember?"

 

Jost nodded. "Yes, but why would he betray us? He had Rank, Privilege, what could Vamah have promised him!" He paced back and forth, staring at the floor. "It doesn't make any Sense! Brightlords are supposed to be smart, and make Intelligent Decisions."

 

His sister sighed. "Jost, you're receiving plenty of Glory for finding the Spy, you didn't need the Shardblade as well."

 

He whirled on her. "Why Not?! Dalinar know's I'm loyal I just found a Cremling Spy for him!" She simply raised an Eyebrow. "Ok, yes, It was mostly guessing, but I was right wasn't I?" She continued to stare at him. "I need to calm down don't I." She nodded.

 

"Alright then." He sat down opposite from her. "What do you think about Brightlady Kenara's claim to being an Officer?"

 

"Well, For one, I think she meant that either her Husband or brother is an Officer, since the Highprince probably isn't naming Woman Officers. I don't know enough about her to tell you though. Either way, she claims that Torwel is a Spy. Who do you want to investigate?"

 

Jost moved as if to speak, but then hesitated, and remained silence. After nearly a minute of thought. He grinned and stood up. "Neither. I'll be back later." He hurried out of the room. Grabbing his Kit as he went. He had an Army to save.

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I suspect that the Panda is actually a lightweaver and that Jain is just a really convincing fake.

 

You know, it would be really convenient if each person could put something at the bottom of their post like: argument for X and against Y so it would be a little easier to see what people are actually trying to say. Right now it seems that some people are suspicious of Wilson, and some people are suspicious of Odysa. Then there are those of us that are flying under the radar, like me (I hope at least one other person feels a little overwhelmed by all of the discussion that is going on right now). I'm not sure who to suspect, since the only confirmed eliminator that we have is Jain, and the only back and forth conversation he has had was with me. Also, there is only one other person in this game who knew that Jain was bad in the first place. I don't feel confident enough in myself to act right now, but for the next 3 days or so we still won't have any information from eliminator kills. Hopefully by tomorrow I'll have a better idea of who I think is tricksy.

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Storm it Wilson, If you had said anything other than Officer, I would have continued to Lynch you. But I don't think we have another one of those.

 

I officially have no idea what to do now. I just went an reread all of Twei's Posts. He supported Meta's Lighteye Vote Plan early on, then he expressed Suspicion of Wilson.

 

I can confirm that we at least have another Officer if Kenara isn't lying. 

 

 I'm an Officer. I roleblocked Odysa the first cycle.

 

I was sent to clean the latrines during the first cycle and that doesn't match up with Wilson's targets. As such, we have a situation where we basically have two people claiming the same role (although one of them has yet to speak up). If Kenara is good, then it's likely that the other Officer is a Spy. Now that doesn't mean that it is another one of the known Lighteyes, it could be the Heterochromic for all we know. 

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I can confirm that we at least have another Officer if Kenara isn't lying. 

 

I figured there was another Officer. At the beginning of the game, during one of the clarification posts, Wyrm worded one of the clarifcations as "an Officer" rather than "the Officer". Granted, that could've just been intentional vagueness so we don't know how many there are, but that's an easy thing to slip up with, especially in a clarification. And I was pretty sure there'd be two anyway.

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Wilson: No, I was actually addressing that question to Joe, because I would be more suspicious if you had that information during a Battle and didn't share it until way later.

 

Luckat: I placed my secret vote on Araris.

 

I'd be wary about putting too much stock on roles that have to be Spies (even though I do suspect a Messenger would be highly useful to at least one Spy Team.) I'm sure we all remember the joy of the Gunners...

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I would, however, like to hear from Aonar. He's normally a little more active than this. I don't expect him to respond today, since he said he's got karate on Thursday, but I've noticed he checks in here pretty often throughout the day (both today and yesterday), but he never posts.

 

Sorry, again. :P Yesterday, nothing interesting was happening while I was around (seriously you people, what's with all the useful discussion going on either in the middle of the night or while I'm in classes?) and like I said, Thursdays are a bad night for me.

 

I had a little more time than usual today, but I spent most of it writing and researching this post. I'm really rather surprised no one has tried to extrapolate anything from the fact that Jain was a Spy.

 

 

On that note, what do we know about Jain this game?

 

Cycle 1:

Made his customary rant about being on team good, and asked a somewhat obvious clarification of the rules. With the benefit of hindsight, this post is clearly rather heavy-handed.

 

He asked for someone to come forward with a plan to prevent the Lighteye vote from being manipulated, even though it really wouldn't be a danger unless the spies were able to communicate.

 

Other than that, he didn't say anything.

 

Cycle 2:

Ranted about why the Spies could possibly have wanted to kill Ash. Came up with some rather incomplete scenarios. Seemed very confused, if not annoyed, by the fact that Ash died. (Likely that his team did not kill Ash, unless he was trying some serious reverse psychology.)

 

Not much else.

 

Cycle 3:

Really said nothing at all. Mentioned that he was having computer problems, and suggested for Odysa to lay out her arguments more clearly.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are three links I can see here. None of them are real strong, but they are there.

 

1. Jain/Meta: Jain asked for a plan to control the Lighteye vote shortly before Meta suggested his plan. Despite claiming no particular suspicion of Jain, Meta voted for him, "to ensure someone was lynched," when he was already leading the votes. This strikes me as a little out of character, and could very easily be construed as an attempt to distance himself from Jain. If Meta were Jain's partner, and Jain's team did not kill Ash, Meta's roleblocking could play in to why Ash was killed.

 

2. Jain/Wilson: Wilson and Jain were the two most vocal people about how strange Ash's death was. Not real compelling, but you'd be surprised how often little things like that point to stronger connections. She also passively suggested Jain innocence, although she never went so far as to outright defend him.

 

3: Jain/Odysa: This is probably the most tenuous connection, but given Odysa's rather strange behaviour, I think it worth exploring. Really, it's just a bit of psychology where Jain gave Odysa advice in thread to make it seem like they weren't communicating in other ways. Immediately following Jain's death, it seemed to me that Odysa became even more erratic, and a little flustered, but that might just be confirmation bias.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

At the moment, Wilson is fairly low on my suspicion list (bad Aonar, bad! :P), if just because of how many people have been voting for her. Twei is an interesting lead, but I'd like to wait for her to defend herself before voting. Joe is getting up there in suspicions, but he's been known to go with his gut and stick to it, especially when it comes to the faster paced games, and I would like to look at Jain more closely first.

 

....I think I'd like to see what Meta thinks of the scenarios I've laid out, as his is the strongest connection I can draw.

Edited by Aonar Faileas
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Joe is getting up there in suspicions, but he's been known to go with his gut and stick to it, especially when it comes to the faster paced games.

Kal Dell Joe, your gut is a darkfriend.  You should probably put the Dragon's Fang on your gut.  

 

Anyway, yeah. I do like to do actual analysis, but I never have enough Information at the beginning of the game. I save that for the end-game.

Edited by The Only Joe
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HA!

I should of guessed that Jain was evil, I guess that he was complain about being good a tad to much lately.

Oh well that means that we have one less Spy to deal with, even if he will be whingeing about this death for the next twelve weeks or so.

Sorry that i haven't been active Lately its been a hectic week.

Edited by Surgebound Rainspren
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Jain was only one vote ahead in the votes and all it would've taken was someone coming in late (or Jain throwing a vote on one of the other people that had only one vote) for there to be a tie. I was trying to take away that possibility so that we actually would get a lynch. Unfortunately, I was busy and forgot to remove my vote on Marand beforehand. We honestly got lucky there that it wasn't noticed until afterwards or else we could've had another day without any information to go off of. Also, considering that I spent a good chunk of the 2nd cycle trying to get people to actually vote, I wouldn't consider my voting for Jain as out of character. Heck, most games I try to encourage even a first day lynch, just for the information! 

 

Also, Tal brought up the need to come up with a plan for the lighteye vote well before Jain did, so I had already been working on the problem and trying to come up with a solution. 

 

It's a tenuous connection, at best, in my opinion, though I don't blame you for considering it. To further hopefully put your suspicions to rest, if I were Jain's 2nd, I wouldn't be the one putting in the sabotage order in the first place. For one, I'd have let Jain do the honors, since he finally was evil and he's been wanting to try his hand at it for quite awhile now. Two, I wasn't surprised at all that I was targeted by something during the first cycle, as that's fairly common. Evidentally, people like to try to figure out where I stand. I wouldn't risk us being found out so early by putting the order in myself, if I was a spy. I also wouldn't have just let him die like that when saving him would've been incredibly easy. The lighteye votes were all over the place (as Jost and Kenara were discussing before the end of the cycle) and if that wasn't a possible route to save him, as I said, I would've encouraged him to save himself by voting for someone else to tie it up. Sure, he'd likely be on the chopping block today then, but that would've meant that the good faction would've wasted not only last cycle, but this cycle as well just to get one spy, during which more people would die. 

 

So you can see, if I actually were evil, last cycle would've played out far differently, so no, I'm not Jain's 2nd. 

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3: Jain/Odysa: This is probably the most tenuous connection, but given Odysa's rather strange behaviour, I think it worth exploring. Really, it's just a bit of psychology where Jain gave Odysa advice in thread to make it seem like they weren't communicating in other ways. Immediately following Jain's death, it seemed to me that Odysa became even more erratic, and a little flustered, but that might just be confirmation bias.

 

I actually got slightly suspicious of Jain last cycle because of this. Not because I thought he was her partner though. I thought it was because he was also a spy and he was trying to give pointers to a fellow spy, and since he had no other way to communicate, he had to do it via thread.

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First things first: I was cleaning the latrines last cycle. If Wilson hadn't stated it, I would have done so. It's important information considering the complete lack of deaths this cycle, and I'd prefer it to be public knowledge. As a Spearman, though, the roleblock had no effect. I can only guess that the lack of deaths was due to a combination of the other officer, scouts (who I expect would all have left camp to avoid the battle) and perhaps a chance kill on an Aladar spy.
 
I can't address that aspect any further, because the pieces of information involved are solid facts. What I can do is address the suspicions that led Wilson to target me.
 

[Twei]

Wilson: Something doesn't seem right about her. It seems almost like every second post she's reminding us that she's innocent, that she's using a more active playstyle, or that she's a scary Eliminator. It feels like she's trying to compensate for the (re)new(ed) wariness from LG9 by playing noticeably differently. That might be trying to avoid a lynch as a loyal scribe, or it could be trying to seem helpful and trustworthy as a spy. Or hint to the other spies.

[Wilson]

I'm now actively looking at wording and any possible attempt at manipulation. And let me tell you something: your post just red-flagged you. You're not high on my suspect list, but you're on there.

 

The only time I've deliberately attempted to manipulate (which, in the context of an elimination game, I consider to be attempting to alter the opinions and behaviour of others beyond a goal of self-preservation) would be the beginning of LG7, and that backfired hard. I'm a terrible manipulator. If I say something, it's something I believe, stated in the most natural way at the time. That's true here. If that draws your suspicion, there's not really much I can do.
 


 [regarding Odysa]

And that tells me that your teammate definitely isn't Meta, Aonar, Maill, or Joe. None of them would encourage you to respond like that when I'm zeroed in on you. So it 
could be someone brand new, but I don't think it is. I think it's someone who's played a few games but hasn't played many with me. Nor have they really watched many games with me, so they don't know what advice to give you when I'm accusing you. Which mostly just leaves Newan and Twei, although technically Jasnah, Rainspren, and Macen could be on that short list too. I'm leaning more toward Twei than Newan right now, although it could be him. His post exonerating me reads slightly as if he's toying with me.

 
If I push this too hard, I'm going to be accused of trying to feed suggestions to a spy. Suffice to say: if I had been advising Odysa at the time, I would have suggested she reference this post. Given how that discussion turned out, it probably wouldn't have been an ideal move, but it's a detail that I would have suggested.
 
Finally, in case I'm right in thinking my activity level is suspicious: while uni is finished for the year, I've gone straight into what are essentially two part-time jobs. The result is that in the evening I have three pages of posts to attempt to digest in one go, in turn resulting in me either picking out tiny details or posting on gut feeling.

 

To be honest, I'm not a bad target for a lynch. I don't have a role, and I can't see myself suddenly becoming more active. I'll leave that for the rest of you to decide. I've lost most of the suspicion I had for Wilson, for revealing her role to offer information valuable to the villagers, but beyond that I don't really have anything constructive to add.

 

Edit:

I'll wait until Twei gets on to defend herself before I decide to test your claim.

Twei is an interesting lead, but I'd like to wait for her to defend herself before voting.

It's appreciated  :) 

Edited by twelfthrootoftwo
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Meta. I did find it a bit suspicious that you threw the last vote on Jain for the same reasons Aonar stated. That being said, I thought about doing it too, but you beat me to the punch - so I can understand your defense and agree with it.

My biggest question to you comes from this:

 

H-How did no one die? Weren't we suppose to be able to tell if the Surgeon or Guardsmen saved someone? Did the spies just never put in their orders? Are we really that lucky? What is going on here?!? 

 

On the bright side, good call Jost. That's one down!

It may have just been a bad choice of phrases. Or, maybe a Freudian slip?

What about this cycle WASN'T on the bright side? Everything went pretty well for us, and went very poorly for the spies.

That just seems like a very terrible, or telling, choice of words.


OOC: I will be on a bit during the day today, but we have my work Christmas party tonight. A party at which 20-30 of us manage to rack up a $3-4k bar tab. So... I probably won't be on much tomorrow morning either (cycle ends at 2pm my time).

*EDIT* The quote disappeared right before I hit submit... words were still there, but no quote box?

Edited by Macen
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Twei. For now.

 

I'm hoping the other Officer will step forward to say who they blocked, because that person could be a spy. The only reason I can think of that they wouldn't in this case is if the other Officer is also a spy. Which means that, if one of the teams did target an Aladar spy, both teams (assuming there's just two) know who's on the other team (although Vamah's team only knows one of the people on the Aladar team). Granted, the team with the Officer wouldn't be certain that the person they targeted is the Aladar spy, since they could also be a scout who left, but they'd still be unlikely to reveal themselves on the off-chance the person is a spy.

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