Long Game 8: Elendel Gang War

[navybrandt]

PopEye stood up and frowned in anger.  Two people had just died!  Granted they were both from the gangs that had been wrecking this town, but he thought there should be a trial before someone was executed - otherwise it was just murder.  Then, there was the message carved into the wall that so closely mirrored his own thoughts.  That was it, he was going to do something!  He turned to face Willa.  "Alright Willa, you want us to vote to kill people.  I blame these murders on you, so you get my first vote."

 

 

but the perpetrator couldn’t even spell his name right.

LOLOLOL

[Aonar]

You wound me, Twei. Just because I didn't post a page long analysis doesn't mean I didn't write one. In this case it happens to in my Faction PM, which turned out to be a futile gesture seeing how my Faction PM is deader than a rusting doornail. 

 

So, on to the analysis, I suppose.

 

Luckat: Inactive. Made no votes, or RP. According to my contact among the Set (who may or may not be a Kandra, although I believe them to be on our side), a group PM was made, but Luckat didn't post much there, so there should not have been any information disseminated that would have made Luckat appear an especially valuable target.

-Killed by Kandra.

--Body not stolen.

---This tells us relatively little. Either none of the suspicions thrown around were close to the mark, or they want us to think none of the suspicions thrown around were close to the mark. However you want to spin it, our suspect pool is pretty darn big.

--Reason for kill?

---Luckat is a fairly capable player.

----Speaks for itself. Good players who haven't attracted a ton of attention generally make good targets.

---Won't give us information.

----As Luckat is inactive, this kill tells us nothing, where something could be extrapolated from the death of a more vocal player.

 

---Member of the Set.

 

----I imagine the Kandra will wish to take out the Set early to remove our chances of gaining Durmalumin and or conserving dangerous powers for the endgame, so this still makes sense.

So, that kill, though unhelpful, makes sense. I am in contact with someone who had PMs with her, so we'll see if we gain anything from that.

Meta: Vocal player, who is dangerous whatever team he's on. Didn't really allude to his nature as a Rioter at all, or at least not in this PM, so that probably didn't play in to things. Was one of the few players to vote for an opposing faction, and was one of the suspects I listed.

-Killed by Coinshot.

--Probably Set. Not definite, by any stretch of the imagination, but probable.

--Reasons for kill?

---General strength as a player. Dangerous to have around, dangerous to get rid of. If it was the Set who made this kill, this is probably why. If he was a Kandra, great, if he wasn't, they lost a valuable ally, and potentially a worse enemy. Not really any bad option here.

---Suspicion as Kandra. This could be a reason for anyone to try and kill him, Set, Riot, or Politician. He wasn't a huge suspect in my mind, but someone could have decided he was as good as any to take out.

---On the fence about cooperating with the Set. Another reason the Set may have wanted him gone. All he did was support it in the PM, and make a single vote for a Set member in-thread, but who knows.

----One problem with the Coinshot being Set is that they will have to expect that we (the Rioters) won't let an early lead like this slide. I don't know what we have in terms of powers, but if the Politicians side with us, there's nothing the Set can do about it. Despite Luckat being Set, unless the Kandra are working with the Set, (unlikely, for obvious reasons) they still would not have known the numbers would end up even.

 

That's all I've got for now, people. Onward with the voting! (Seriously, don't let this round turn into another wasted day lynch. Three kills a cycle can tear through us real fast.)

Edited September 9, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Alvron]

Hate to break it to you Aonar but Luckat was a member of the Set not a politician.

[Aonar]

Yeah, that was a major mistake on my part, sorry. Close enough on most of it though. Not sure how I missed that. I'll go edit the original so it's right.

[Mailliw73]

The information Luckat shared in our faction PM was:

-wanting to coordinate Spikes

-Proposed the idea of figuring out a way to make it harder for the kandra to imitate one of us effectively

-Originally for the idea of sharing roles, then later against

-Tried to guess powers, came up with nothing except she saw that Jain was eating a lot in the writeup

-The attempted Spike last night was possibly going to go to Lucky. 

 

That analysis really doesn't help much at all. She didn't take strong stands on anything really and didn't accuse anyone. I'm only confused as to why the kandra didn't steal her body.

[Araris Valerian]

So basically it comes down to people need to say more stuff so when they get killed we have something to go after. I am going to continue my opinion that if we cant decide between people for lack of good info then we should err towards the Set, since spikes likely will help the Kandra more than us. Assuming that the Set are infiltrated, any spike they make can easily be stolen by the Kandra, while only letting us normal folks know about the infiltration. That being said, I'm gonna vote for Peng.

[+Quitecontrary]

I'm just dropping by here for a few to say that it's my rotten luck that the game started in the middle of my trip. I will be back home in 2 days and hopefully I will still be alive then. Vanilla players are generally sacrificial anyway, but still.

[the Gleeman]

Morgan looked around the room. They were lazy. He leaned back in a wooden chair with feet on a table. He should know, no one was lazier than him. A politician sat nearby looking nervous about something. Now there was a suspicious character if he ever saw one. "Hey Terra what chu been up to lately?"

 

Ok I'm mostly just calling out because of a Teen Titans reference and because I have no good suspicions right now, but... why not. We need to get conversation started. 

[Pupper]

I haven't been posting a whole lot because I got nothing. Seems to me all we can do is just kill off someone randomly, and hope for the best. Which I would rather not do, but we shouldn't just waste this day cycle. If anyone has anything, speaking up would be nice.

 

Also, Teen Titans reference?  I haven't seen the show.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Pupper

[A Joe in the Bush]

So, as someone said in our Set PM, Neither Peng nor a Smart guy have actually said anything, but both have been seen viewing it. As ther's already a vote on Peng, I'm going to Vote for The Smart Guy As for Luckat, All I can do is Confirm what Mailliw said.

Edited September 9, 2014 by The Only Joe

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Ah, there we go  Aonar

 

As to why the kandra didn't steal Lucky's body:

 

-There was no advantage to taking their place: there weren't any networks Lucky had that they particularly wanted/didn't already possess. Chaos and confusion from lots of body-switching is not part of their strategy. 

 

-There was a disadvantage to taking their place: Lucky was in contact with people they didn't want to have to deceive. (Having a difficult-to-fake power would also count, if Lucky revealed it.)

 

-There was no advantage to the kandra abandoning their body: there was no suspicion placed on them or trap they had to evade

 

-There was a disadvantage to abandoning the body: the kanda didn't want to fake an identity. Or they didn't want to abandon networks they'd already set up (unlikely, since judging from the thread it doesn't seem there's been enough happening that they'd need to change their plans).

 

Overall a lack of body-switching indicates two things: either the kandra are newer players who want to minimise the amount of deception they use, or (a) more experienced player(s) who prefer a 'transparent' playstyle. LG7 had Alim take exactly that approach.

 

Bartbug, what was the final ruling on whether kandra kills/abandoned bodies would be distinguished in the writeup?

[bartbug]

By the way guys, if you want to uncount a vote, you need to find the original post and green that also.

 

And twelthrootoftwo, RAFO. (Though, it should be fairly clear if you think about it. Read Well of Ascenscion).

[Tulir]

Expanding off of what has been said previously, I am really confused why Luckat was the first kill by the kandra.  There were no posts by her, and so it doesn't make sense in my mind for her to be killed.  I would think that the kandra would kill someone who has posted a bit more, but that is just me.  If that was indeed the kandra kill, and not Luckat being the kandra and ditching the current body, then I am just a little confused.  Meta didn't seem to be acting himself, but the Coinshot death shows that he couldn't have been a kandra,  I agree with the thought that the Set just wanted him out of their way, as he is a hindrance to their win condition no matter what.

 

Edit: Ninja'd by Bartbug.  In that case, ignore the speculation of Luckat ditching her current body.  I am casting a vote for Terra as well, as something seems off to me.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Tulir

[Alvron]

Retraced vote for Quitania.

 

Jain. Have anything you want to contribute?

 

Edit: colours

Edit 2. Retracted vote

Edited September 9, 2014 by Alvron

[Mailliw73]

Wait, do Kandra have to abandon their bodies to take another's? That's what Twei's post sounds like.

Satrams I'm calling you out here as well as the pm. You've viewed the pm multiple times, including today, so you're up to date. Make a post, an accusation, an anything.

[A Joe in the Bush]

EDIT: Nevermind, Ninja'd by Mailliw, I'm putting my Vote back on A Smart Guy.

 

Alrightie then, We have about 21 Hours left, and the Vote isn't looking good. I've retracted my Vote for Smart Guy, since one vote isn't going to make him post.

 

Willa(1): Navybrandt

Peng(1): Araris Valerian

Terra(1): Gleeman

Jain(1): Alvron

a Smart Guy(2): Joe and Mailliw

 

Here are my thoughst on the Votes.

Wilson is acting a bit suspicious, focusing on the Gang war more then the Kandra, but she's said on the Set PM that she's going to be Busy, these first few days.

Normally in this case I would switch to Peng, as he's another inactive, but I'm pretty sure he's a Genuine Inactive, since he hasn't been on in three days.

Terra is, One Minute. Oh Pupper. (Confession, I never try to learn peoples RP Names.). Pupper hasn't said much, and at this time, I'm agreeing with him.

Jain is of course being Erratic. His main problem right now is that he instictively plays Erratic, and because of his Reputation, if he plays smartly, we all get Suspicious and Lynch him.

 

At this point, I don't know who to vote for. I kind of agree with Pupper. We didn't get enough Info First Cycle, so we'll have to random Kill.

 

EDIT2: Re added the Smart guy Votes.

Edited September 9, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Alvron]

Wait, do Kandra have to abandon their bodies to take another's? That's what Twei's post sounds like.

I'm fairly sure they have to abandon their body otherwise they would get two votes, theirs and the body they inhabit.

It also makes sense as a Kandra can only have one body in the Mistborn books and would be very op if they could just duplicate like that.

 

​Given that you are a very experienced player I find it a little suspicious that you are unsure about that.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Hmm...Copy pasted from the Rules

 

The Kandra start off . . . powers. Each night, the Kandra can choose one person to kill. If they desire, they can steal the body for one of their own to take. If the kandra steal a body, then the person killed has an obligation to check up on the game once a day. The kandra and the player killed will be allowed a google doc to coordinate. After a kandra abandons a body, then the player will be revealed as dead and kandra killed. The Kandra are trying to kill everyone.

It Doesn't say. I'm going to go by the book and assume that they lose their previous Body when they Take control.

 

Bart can you Confirm?

[Alvron]

Copied form Barts second post in rules

With the Kandra, as soon as they dump a body, it will be noted that the body has been dumped in the write up. They give up their body. 

Edited September 9, 2014 by Alvron

[Lightsworn Panda]

Retraced vote for Quitania.

 

Jain. Have anything you want to contribute?

 

Edit: colours

 

Nope. Nothing. I haven't done anything, nor can I do anything, which I'll explain below:

 

-Tried to guess powers, came up with nothing except she saw that Jain was eating a lot in the writeup

 

Which write-up was I mentioned in? And yes, as you can guess from that wite-up, I'm a Bendalloy Ferring. I might as well be a vanilla player.   

[Binnut]

Tough luck Jain!

 

I haven't had much time, so I haven't had time to go too deep in to analyze, but the Points raised about Satrams that Maill and Joe have raised are good ones. Hiding among inactives is a good tested trick for the Eliminators. I could probably be accused of for similar reasons for yesterday, (I did read both PM and thread but had little time, and no ideas about to write) but this seems to be of a greater scale. 

[Sart]

Sorry I haven't been active, I've been busy with college homework, so I haven't had a chance to analyze much. Here's what I've got. The teams aren't going to be concentrating on Kandra in the beginning. We suspect that there are 2 or 3 of them, which makes it difficult to find them. This game reminds me a lot of the first Mid-Range. In that game, I stayed alive easily by only posting seldom to the group doc. I haven't found any one like that in the Set, although Peng is as quiet as me. I'll place my vote on red: Peng, if only because I want to tie up the votes.

[little wilson]

I really shouldn't be posting right now, but I need to make some things clear.

 

Wilson is acting a bit suspicious, focusing on the Gang war more then the Kandra, but she's said on the Set PM that she's going to be Busy, these first few days.

 

I said one thing about the gang war in the PM, and that wasn't really focusing on it. I've more been talking about other types of strategizing (or at least the need to discuss that since I haven't actually had time to really analyze and come up with my own ideas for said strategies yet). And the only thing that could possibly be construed as focusing on the gang wars here in the thread was when I said Meta beat me to voting for someone of the other gang. And the only reason I was going to (and did) vote for the other faction was because people seemed afraid to. And that's not how we find the kandra. My focus is not on the gang war. I couldn't care less about the gang war right now. Sure, I'd like to win on that secondary win condition, but the primary is still far more important. And that's finding the kandra.

 

So despite what the RP for Willa in the writeups indicate, if I'd actually had time to RP beforehand, she wouldn't be acting like that at all. But that's okay. She's more established now, and that'll give me something to play with when I do have time to really jump into the game. For now, I'm keeping up with the game as much as I can--which, admittedly, is only barely above being inactive at this stage. I've sort of got a lot going on in real life, and I probably shouldn't have jumped into a game this complicated, but whatever. What's done is done, and now I just have to keep myself from going inactive. Or you guys can kill me first.

 

My vote is going to Peng. Despite checking in on the game and PM and seeing that we wanted a comment from him, he still hasn't said anything. Not even a simple "sorry I'm inactive." Until I have more time to analyze other people here in the thread, that's the most suspicious thing to me.

[Mailliw73]

I'm fairly sure they have to abandon their body otherwise they would get two votes, theirs and the body they inhabit.

It also makes sense as a Kandra can only have one body in the Mistborn books and would be very op if they could just duplicate like that.

​Given that you are a very experienced player I find it a little suspicious that you are unsure about that.

Im really not the best about rules and such. Only when they concern me and my powers specifically am I pretty knowledgeable about them. The rules didn't say.

Copied form Barts second post in rules

I'll check that post, but what I got from the rules was that they abandon the body they stole when they are done. Edit: I see what you are saying now, but can we get final clarification, Bartbug?

Nope. Nothing. I haven't done anything, nor can I do anything, which I'll explain below:

Which write-up was I mentioned in? And yes, as you can guess from that wite-up, I'm a Bendalloy Ferring. I might as well be a vanilla player.

Lucky found it in the Night 1 writeup to begin the night. Edited September 9, 2014 by Mailliw73

[bartbug]

A kandra cannot have more than one body at a time. As soon as they bodysnatch, their original form is dead.