Quick Fix Game 3: Shadowed Secrets

[Araris Valerian]

I'm here, and if we were supposed to get a PM about rations then one didn't find its way to me. As far at the players that didn't vote, some of them might use that as an excuse to not be involved very much today after their initial vote, so some eliminators could go semi-inactive. I'm gonna put a real vote on Luce, partly for a response, partly because we have to lynch somebody and partly because I don't think the bold votes are really doing very much.

[Gamma Fiend]

Yes, apologies. I forgot to send out the Ration Counts to a few players last night before I passed out after the write-up. >.<

Sorry, your GM was 'le tired'.

 

And also, thanks for checking first in here, Kas. Messagess can NOT be copy and pasted, this game!

[luckat]

I’m sorry I haven’t been very active. I’ll try to post more and vote this cycle.

Right now, I really want to hear from Navor and Snipe about why they voted for Raze when he was being more helpful than pretty much anyone else and when another person had either already voted for him or ‘voted’ for him in bold. I want to know why they contributed to a tie between Raze and Jain where the result would have been left to a coin toss if no one had come in to change it.

Regarding the bold ‘votes’, I suppose it is a good way to catch someone’s eye so they can find where it says why they are under suspicion, but I don’t know that they actually encourage people to post if they are just being inactive. Then again, I’m now sure that actual votes are all that effective in that either. Inactives probably don’t usually see the votes until they were going to post anyway. And the bolded votes don’t even have the advantage of being an actual threat that can be accidentally left in if inactives take too long to post (if that’s even an advantage).

Since I don’t have enough rations to change my vote, and I don’t know for sure who I want to vote for until more people post, I’ll hold off for now. Hopefully I’ll remember to place a vote later.

I don’t have anything more to say right now, but here’s a vote tally.
Luce (1): Araris

Unsurprisingly, there’s not much there yet.

Also, here’s a bold ‘vote’ tally
Aoran: Raze
Navor: Kasir
Snipe: Kasir
Wilim: Tryel, Ash
Joseph: Kasir

Kasir has bolded the names of a quarter of the people left in the game.

[Gamma Fiend]

Sorry about the delay, but the Spectating Doc is now up and running. If anybody not playing the game wishes to Spectate, just PM me for the link.

Everyone else, carry on.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I didn't send any messages at all last cycle. And I did get a PM saying I now have one Ration left. So either your message really is from X, or someone else also has capitalization errors. (And as I type this, I can see what you mean by the errors.)

[Renegade]

Hm, well, things are pretty quiet now, vote-wise, so I'm going to go ahead and vote Navor, both for being rather silent and voting for me without much of a reason. Snipe had already announced that he'd probably vote for me, yet Navor persisted on voting for me. Other current suspects are Aoran and Snipe for watching the thread but saying nothing. I'd like them to talk some more as well.

 

I don't really know what to think of this "Mystery Message," honestly. It does seem rather peculiar. If the actual sender was an Eliminator, well, why would an Eliminator be sending a sort of "spam" message on Day 1? Wouldn't it be more productive to send a message to another Eliminator, so they can start to coordinate things? Seems to me like it's more of a distraction than anything.

 

Also, no one said anything so far, but my vote isn't in the write up...

 

Pretty sure that Gamma just didn't notice it, since Fenweed Sap (or anything else) can't actually cancel a vote, if I recall correctly.

[Aonar]

Right-o. I've just gotten back (I could only check things in mobile before, and the internet at the hotel wasn't great), and have mostly skimmed through what's happened. I have some suspicions, and some clues that almost seem to fit together, and I'd like to wait and watch and see how things play out, but I can't.

 

I'm still in the process of putting together my diagram, so there's nothing on that front, (and there likely wouldn't be anything there anyways, given how early in the game it is) but I do find the votes last cycle interesting. 

 

If no one minds, I'll be laying out my list a little differently from usual:

 

True Votes:
Wern for Navor
Wern retracts vote for Navor
Araris for Navor
Willim for Joseph
Raze for Jain
Navor for Raze
Joseph for Jain
Snipe for Raze
Jain for Snipe
Kasir for Jain

 

 

Bolded Votes:
Snipe for Raze
Joseph for Jain
Kasir for Willim
Tyrel for Luce
Wern for Araris
Wern for Ryfe
Wern retracts vote for Ryfe
Tyrel retracts vote for Luce
Wern for Jain

Araris for Jain

 

Something about the Jain vote just feels off to me. There was no build up, no impetus. Just three votes, all in relatively quick succession, towards the end of the day. Why? Jain also happens to be a very easy vote. He's always erratic. He always protests too much. It's a really easy vote for an Eliminator to start, and a really easy vote for an Eliminator to jump on to without looking suspicious. I understand that the inability to change votes makes things a little difficult, but I still find this vote interesting. So, Joseph, Raze, and Kasir, what do you have to say?

 

I'm especially interested here in addition to the person killed (Wyrm). Ren and Kas have both worked with him in previous games a fair bit, perhaps they were afraid that Wyrm would notice something amiss?

 

(I have no rations, so I'm not voting quite yet. )

Edited September 21, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[A Joe in the Bush]

I say that I voted for Jain, then got off the computer after he posted. When I got back on n hour or two ago, he was dead.

[Ashiok]

The reason I bolded you, Wilim, is because I was on then, wouldn't be on for a while because RL, and was genuinely curious as to weather or not you had any info to share. I assumed that two 'votes' on you would be more of a reason to tell us stuff than one bold. Sorry. Also, I'm completely exhausted, so I'm probably only semi coherent right now.

[Tulir]

I am going to cast my vote for Ash, as Wilim's point about casting a fake vote at him five minutes after I did is valid.  In my mind at least, only the first bolded vote would matter to me, as the point of them is to mainly get attention, so there is no need for two of them.  I don't have any rations, so I won't be able to change this vote.

[Renegade]

Something about the Jain vote just feels off to me. There was no build up, no impetus. Just three votes, all in relatively quick succession, towards the end of the day. Why? Jain also happens to be a very easy vote. He's always erratic. He always protests too much. It's a really easy vote for an Eliminator to start, and a really easy vote for an Eliminator to jump on to without looking suspicious. I understand that the inability to change votes makes things a little difficult, but I still find this vote interesting. So, Joseph, Raze, and Kasir, what do you have to say?

 

I'm especially interested here in addition to the person killed (Wyrm). Ren and Kas have both worked with him in previous games a fair bit, perhaps they were afraid that Wyrm would notice something amiss?

 

I think you overestimate my precognitive abilities, Aonar.   I voted for Jain yesterday for the exact reason I stated: he had been online at the time, but had not posted yet. With the lack of permanent voting (and therefore evidence) going on at the time, I really would’ve voted for any player who hadn’t posted yet; I did not vote for Jain simply because he was erratic. There was no hidden intention of starting a bandwagon; as I said, there is no way that I could predict the outcome of the vote 7 hours later. I don't feel as though my voting post was persuasive enough to get other people to join me, but I could be wrong. But while the end result may make my vote seem potentially suspicious, I’d like to point out that you completely avoided voting at all. It’s far easier for an Eliminator to sit back and watch people cut at each other’s throats than it is to get in the center of attention.

 

And yes, it’s easy to assume that I killed Wyrm because I know that he’s a good player. But, to be frank, you’ve actually worked with Wyrm much more than I have in previous games. And I really think anyone could’ve figured out that Wyrm was a clever player; the fact that you’re immediately pointing towards Kas and me is a bit subjective.

[navybrandt]

Well, I haven't been feeling well today, so I'll keep this short.  I voted for Raze purely for RP purposes with nothing else much to go on.

 

I double checked and nobody voted for him yet, so I'll vote for Araris.  No real RP yet today, though for me weekends are harder as I'm spending more time with family.

Edited September 21, 2014 by navybrandt

[navybrandt]

Snipe looked at the dead body and became very afraid.  Someone might kill him next.  He was too valuable to die just yet; his mind was too great.  He had a secret stash of Fenweed Sap that he was saving for emergencies, he just had to figure out when to use it and who to use it on.  He wasn't even sure who he could trust or how many murderers were around him.  For now, he'd keep him mouth shut and watch everyone very closely.  He wished he had some Glowsap to track the criminals around him, but for now, he'd have to just keep his eyes open and his mouth shut.

[Alvron]

I voted for Raze partly for RP, partly for his being helpful and partly for his killing of me in QF2.   Just because your being helpful doesn't mean your not evil.  You did the same thing in QF2.

 

As for my silence this game day started just after midnight for me so don't be expecting to hear from me for the first 5-6 hours on each day and the last 2-3 hours as well.  I also have busy weekends as I play nine holes of golf with a few mates each Sat/Sun, so I'm always quiet those days anyway. 

 

​As to whom I suspect.  No one at moment.  I never have any strong suspicions until the third-fourth day so any votes I place are mostly random.

 

[Theorymaker]

I'm going to vote for Joseph because he doesn't have any votes on him, and I don't suspect anyone enough to add a second vote to them.

[Aonar]

I'll place a vote on Kasir, I suppose. My gut feeling says that he, Ren or Joe will be an Eliminator, but from the looks of things none of them will be lynched, anyways, so I'm just voting for the Rations, I guess.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'll vote for Tulir On day one, he voted for an experienced player. I'd rather leave them until we have more evidence against them. (Yes, I know that Tulir is also Experienced. The point stands)

 

EDIT: Used a ration to change my vote to Aonar. See below

Edited September 21, 2014 by Gamma Fiend
Put the retracted vote in green

[Kasimir]

Why I voted for Jain is pretty simple. First, given that this was a QF, I decided to push things harder and faster than I usually would've (see in a Long Game), especially since there is item scarcity. As you yourself said in a past QF, we don't have time to sit around and take things slow or let the Eliminators come down on us. Not to mention the presence of Silver Wards. It might've been interesting to see if someone was minded to use that on Jain early on. Second, I think it slightly disingenuous to simply say, "Jain is an easy target, he always protests too much." That is true, and must be acknowledged. At the same time, I observed that couldn't always be consistent with Jain being innocent (brilliant long game?), and at that point, I felt I didn't want to keep making the assumption that if Jain acted in accordance with past behaviour, then he must be good. Third, I asked myself who it would most hurt to lose, Jain or Raze (assuming horseplay.) I further assumed that what we really didn't want was more no-lynches, especially given Silver Wards. Then, my decision was obvious.

 

King's death raises an interesting question, because for one, he had a pivotal role in leading the group the last MR. He has consistently high 'role' rates, as this game demonstrated once more. And more importantly, it interests me because of a simple question: Aonar, why aren't you dead?

 

I'm still slightly suspicious of Joe, but I'm going to take his explanation for it for now. But I'm rather curious as you were urging us to play more aggressively in QF2, Aonar, and this time, you're taking a backseat. In addition, I'm also interested in why you aren't dead as an Eliminator going by threat would normally kill you early on (as we saw in QF2) and then King thereafter. But of course, an easy answer to my questions would be you being on Team Evil, wouldn't it?

 

I'm going to place my vote on Aonar. I have to head out for the rest of the day, so if I'm placing it on current suspicion, this is where it stands.

 

 

[Mailliw73]

I don't think one experienced player can really be ranked higher than another from past games. The Convicts are going to be looking for who's a threat now. Not at who was a threat in the past. And since you're asking the question,I have to ask the same of you, Kas. Why didn't they kill you first?

I going to vote for Ash. His immediate jump on a vote for me just feels so off. Granted, he can be erratic, but that was still very abrupt.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Current Votes:

 

Luckat(1): Araris

Alvron(1): Renegade

Ashiok(2): Tulir, Mailliw

Araris(1): Navybrandt

Joseph(1): TheoryMaker

Kasir(1): Aonar

Tulir(1): Joseph

Aonar(1): Kasimir

 

Thinking of changing my Vote to Aonar. Not sure yet. Kas's reasoning seems sound.

[Aonar]

There's too many levels, Kas.  We can't assume Jain will be good, but at the same time, a vote against him without a ton of reasoning is suspicious because Jain is always suspicious, whether he is good or not. So while your reasoning is valid, it's suspicious because it's valid. An Elimintor who can rationalize his actions won't be caught. A vote against Jain is easy to explain, and therefore a good option for an Eliminator. Logic is the perfect cover. (If that makes any sense. I'm way too tired to be doing this right now.)

 

I don't have the slightest clue why I'm not dead, but I've been taking a back seat because I just got to a computer six hours ago (as previously elocuted), and I'm dead tired. Honestly, I should have been asleep ages ago.  I would be urging people to play aggressively if I simply had time to do so. Which I don't. I really shouldn't even be writing this up.

 

Then again, I always die. When I don't, I look suspicious. Not killing me is probably a better strategy than killing me, simply because my continued survival discredits what I say. 

 

If I do die/get lynched, I'd like people to look very closely at Ren, Joe and Kas. My only suspicions of them are made up of circumstantial conjectures, but things just line up too nicely in my head.

Edited September 21, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Kasimir]

That's really funny, Aonar, because a vote against Jain would simply not be a good option for an Eliminator. If I were an Eliminator, it would be awfully easy and a lot better to simply place a vote on someone who hadn't been yet voted for, urge slow play, and let my comrades (and myself) whittle away at everyone in the game and let people who are actually vocal generally take the aggro. Let people with the Silver Wards who save people from lynches do some serious explaining. I'm much of the impression that aggressive Eliminators are generally Eliminators with a short life expectancy (not impossible but certainly a counter-intuitive way to play.)

 

Very simple, Maili: you assume my question is a sole one. That is a mistake. My question is a question of two parts. We could validly ask of everyone not King or Jain why they are still alive. I find it a more compelling question to ask of the player of the many diagrams that have done substantial work in past games, and who is playing, contrary to his words in the last QF, on a backseat exactly why he is still alive. In that regard, I do not endorse and I reject your flawed thesis that all experienced players are equal in strategic terms of reckoning. They are not. Players such as myself have a dismal track record of having rallied the village and rooted out Eliminators, no matter how many games we have under our belt. It doesn't mean we can't do it the next time (this is obviously not deductively certain) but storming straight it would indicate that a decision to go after us would be less rational and strategic.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Ok, definitely switching my vote to Aonar.

 

The Vote is now tied, 2 For Ashiok and 2 for Aonar.

[Alvron]

I'll throw a vote on Kasir.  No reason really but something feels off about him.

[luckat]

Votes:

Ash (2): Tryel, Wilim
Kasir (2): Aoran, Navor
Aoran (2): Kasir, Joseph
Luce (1): Araris
Navor (1): Raze
Araris (1): Snipe
Joseph (1): Ryfe
Ryfe (1): Luce
Tryel (0): Joseph

No Vote: Ash

There is a three-way tie. I don’t really know who to suspect, so I don’t feel like breaking it. We’ll probably get good information no matter who is lynched. I’m going to vote so I can get a ration though, so I’ll pick Ryfe, mostly because no one has voted for him yet.

@Joseph
You probably won’t see this before the cycle is over, but shouldn’t your retraction be in green?

Regarding the whole why did X die instead of Y, it’s likely Aoran and Kasir didn't die for the same reason: they didn’t say much day 1 and seemed busy with RL. And Wern was likely killed for being one of the more active players this game who wasn’t nearly lynched. As much as killing people based on threat level from previous games is a valid Eliminator tactic, killing someone who said they were so busy that they might die of starvation or someone whose only post consisted of a single line seems kind of pointless.
 
Also, Aoran, what do you make of Wern expressing a desire to vote for Jain with your suspicion of all of the people who voted for Jain?

And Kasir, do you want to give more information about your mysterious message, or have you decided that it’s not as suspicious as you thought since it seems Joseph didn’t send it? (If his vote change goes through, then he couldn't have sent it.)