Theory to explain Darkness's actions

[Andrew C]

Obviously this is spoiler-filled, if that annoys you, your browser has a 'back' button.

 

 

Summary of the new things I'm saying:

1. Under the Oathpact, the Heralds specifically suffer when a person Surgebinds.

2. This accelerates them breaking, leading to Desolations

3. The Recreance was an attempt by a dishonorable person/entity that opposes Odium to wipe out surgebinding. I suspect personally that this was one or more of the Heralds, although that isn't part of my theory as it isn't backed up by evidence.

4. This betrayal of Honor's principles weakened (or outright killed) Tavanast, as the shardic intent of Honor does not accept that dishonorable means can be used for honorable ends.

 

 

I subscribe to the the widely-held theory that Darkness is the Herald Nalan.

 

I was thinking about Darkness's words "does not dabble in arts that could return Desolations to the world" and the implications of them, and had what I feel was an epiphany about the history of Roshar and the nature of the Oathpact.

 

 

- The Oathpact took the Heralds to a place of torture between Desolations. (Known)

- As soon as one or maybe all (not sure) of the Heralds broke under torture, a Desolation would begin. (Widely accepted on these boards but not proven)

 

My new theory is that while they are in the place of torture, acts of Surgebinding carried out on Roshar cause some form of spiritual or physical anguish to be inflicted to the Heralds.

 

This explains both Darkness's absolute hatred for Lift and Ym, and his belief that surgebinding can bring desolations back. It also provides a possible explanation for the Recreance - some secret society or other actor (possibly under Odium's influence) convinced the Radiants that their spren were the enemy, and that the Radiants themselves saw the Recreance as a heroic sacrifice, not a vile act of betrayal.

 

 

Furthermore, I would not be surprised at all if one of the fallen Heralds (one that isn't Taln) was responsible for the Recreance and convinced (not coerced) the Radiants to kill their spren.

Edited September 8, 2014 by Andrew C

[Green Hoodie Mistborn]

My last thought before going to sleep tonight...and the only one I can muster on this topic...

Taln continued to be tortued following the Last Desolation even after the Recreance from what I understand. So unless Surgebinding causes additional torture, there is something missing here.

[kari-no-sugata]

Personally, I would be very surprised if the Heralds have not influenced some major world events since the Last Desolation. Though without their Honorblades their ability to directly influence things would be quite limited - it would be interesting to know which Herald went back to get their Honorblade and what they did with it.

 

However, I think taking what Darkness/Nalan says at face value leads to more problems than it solves:

 

If Nalan really thinks this then he should be against any and all Surgebinding - this especially includes what Szeth has been doing. As best as I can tell there is no actual evidence that Surgebinding can cause Desolations (in the conventional sense of wars with Voidbringers) and there was a big gap between the Last Desolation and the Recreance (it would be really nice to know just how big), so there was plenty of time. In other words, proving such a theory to the Radiants at the time of the Recreance would be pretty much impossible due to lack of evidence. In addition, if there happened to be some indication that a real Desolation was coming at the time of the Recreance then you would have to be super ultra certain that Radiants were the true cause and that disbanding would prevent it because otherwise you just doomed Roshar - if you're faced with an external threat the last thing you do is unilaterally disarm.

 

Here's what I think Nalan/Darkness is really saying: the Radiants at the time of the Recrance were becoming a Desolation themselves (think of them as Weapons of Mass Destruction) and are part of the reason why Nalan has lost faith in humanity. There's even a line earlier in the chapter that equates Szeth to being a Desolation, which I don't see as a co-incidence - assuming my interpretation is correct of course

 

 

[Moogle]

If Nalan really thinks this then he should be against any and all Surgebinding - this especially includes what Szeth has been doing.

 

The difference between Szeth and regular Surgebinders is that he is using an Honorblade and has sworn no oaths. Nalan didn't hunt him down, so that probably means that it's the process of speaking the oaths that has Nalan thinking Surgebinders can return the Desolations (or else he'd kill Szeth). There's a WoB saying that the Radiants were part of the Oathpact, which probably means speaking the oaths puts one into the Oathpact. The Oathpact is what brings the Desolations (as per the prelude in WoK - the Heralds thought breaking the Oathpact broke the cycle of Desolations).

 

Here's what I think Nalan/Darkness is really saying: the Radiants at the time of the Recrance were becoming a Desolation themselves (think of them as Weapons of Mass Destruction) and are part of the reason why Nalan has lost faith in humanity. There's even a line earlier in the chapter that equates Szeth to being a Desolation, which I don't see as a co-incidence - assuming my interpretation is correct of course

 

The Radiant oaths start with "life before death". I have a hard time believing any theory which has them warring amongst each other, or with humanity, particular in any manner which would result in a lot of deaths that is Desolation-like.

 

Also, by this logic, Nalan would attempt to stop any leader that tried to take over the world and committed mass killings - the Sunmaker being a prime example. Nalan did not kill the Sunmaker, nor has he killed Taravangian, nor has he killed Szeth, which leads one to suspect he doesnt care about actual wars, but Desolations as in actual Odium-caused Desolations.

Edited September 8, 2014 by Moogle

[kaellok]

 

Summary of the new things I'm saying:

 

1. Under the Oathpact, the Heralds specifically suffer when a person Surgebinds.

2. This accelerates them breaking, leading to Desolations

3. The Recreance was an attempt by a dishonorable person/entity that opposes Odium to wipe out surgebinding. I suspect personally that this was one or more of the Heralds, although that isn't part of my theory as it isn't backed up by evidence.

4. This betrayal of Honor's principles weakened (or outright killed) Tavanast, as the shardic intent of Honor does not accept that dishonorable means can be used for honorable ends.

 

An interesting interpretation of events.  However, there seem to be a few flaws, based on things we know and I believe.

 

1.  Non-Heraldic Surgebinders came after the Oathpact, and as a direct response to the Heralds.  This means that while the use of Surgebinding might cause torture and torment to the Heralds, it seems likely that it is not due to the Oathpact or anything specific that Honor has done or not done.  There also seems to be little explanation given on why the use of Surges would cause torture to the Heralds.  While this theory works to explain Darkness/Nale's words, it doesn't seem to stand on its own when compared to other magic systems we have seen, or even within what we know of Roshar.  ie, while your theory may be true, it seems to currently lack supporting evidence, and to exist only as an unexpected 'twist.'

 

2. If 1 is true, 2 logically follows.  So, no problems here!

 

3. I quite believe this to be true, even though I do not agree with the rest of your theory.  The Recreance was an unequivocally a dishonorable event if you consider spren to be people (as I would classify most if not all self-aware, sentient beings).  It was nothing less than wholesale murder--even if the reasons were the best, or if it were done out of ignorance.  Because Mr. T is also a dishonorable person, and claims to have the means to force a Second Recreance, this seems ever more likely. 

 

4.  The Heralds undoubtedly had a much stronger impact/influence on Honor, and even when nine of them walked away from the Oathpact it wasn't considered a major factor of Honor's splintering (per WoB.)  While it's possible the Recreance had a greater impact than the abandonment of the Oathpact, I find it hard to think so.  After all, the damage was done to the spren, and it seems unlikely that it would so strongly affect both the Splinter and the Shard separately.

 

Not sure how harsh this is sounding, as I'm typing it in a bit of a rush before I leave work, and my initial pass generally turns out much more terse and mean than I mean it (darn text, and strongly worded arguments!).  I truly do think that this is an interesting theory--just one that I happen to disagree with.

[navybrandt]

In Dalinar's flashback of the Recreance.  The KR made a very public spectacle of throwing off their shard plate and blades.  They had to know what would follow (people rushing the area and killing each other for the shards).  This leads me to believe that they were either coerced, being dishonorable themselves, or did it in response to a horrible atrocity done to them.

[hoser]

The below all seem possible, and I see some other possibilities.

In Dalinar's flashback of the Recreance.  The KR made a very public spectacle of throwing off their shard plate and blades.  They had to know what would follow (people rushing the area and killing each other for the shards).  This leads me to believe that they were either coerced, being dishonorable themselves, or did it in response to a horrible atrocity done to them.

1. It could have been part of a plan that included the Radiants re-arising and needing the shards to be around. 
2. They could have done it due to a realization that their continued operation was a worse threat. 
3. They could have realized that their Oaths or the spren were inherently flawed. 

Their actions were dishonorable, as you point out.  I can see them doing it as a choice between dishonorable actions (lesser of two weevils), but I have trouble seeing them doing it in response to an atrocity done to them. 

 

It is interesting that they were apparently very deliberate about which magical items they left behind that were usable: Soulcasters and Shards, but not Oathgates (with 1 exception) or the healing fabrial that Nale uses.  Why those exact ones?

[kaladin_stormblessed_]

It seems more likely to me that Darkness (Nalan) is somewhat aware that Honor has died, and is blaming the KR or maybe their spren for weakening Honor so Odium could shatter him. After all, the KR were a pretty new development at the time of Aharietam and maybe Honor was getting desperate and broke off more pieces of himself to create spren, and then went too far and spread himself too thin. Nalan seem more like the kind of person to seek justice for Honor's death, in his new twisted way.

[weebojello]

I think the theory to explain Nalan's actions, like all of the Heralds (Shalash destroying images of herself), is to realize that their attempting to break the Oathpact and turn on Honor was the first instance of Odium corrupting them. The millenia since have only twisted them even further. That's my opinion, though.

 

In the WOB, he stated that one Herald went back for the sword, and we assume that it's Nalan. If Nalan did indeed go back for his sword, then he is *still* corrupted because what he is supposed to do is go back to Damnation (Braize). This not being done indicates to me that he is still twisted.

 

As for killing proto-KR...that is interesting. So Nalan heads an organization called the Skybreakers. Shallan's brother was a part of it, and they were attempting to stop, similar to the Ghostblood's, Amaram from completing his goals or even existing, let's say. This works on two levels.

 

We don't fully know why the Recreance occured. We know what happened by the KR, but the after effect is theorized is that is somehow cutoff all the Voidbringers from having any power or existing, and doing so for sometime.

 

Nalan is also a deific being (worshipped / honored in parts of Roshar). The KRs are hated by all, and Odium knows that the KRs were killing Voidbringers. He has already corrupted the Heralds, and Honor is splintered. It is in Odiums interest that the KRs stay as disgraced and powerless for as long as possible. Therefore, trying to kill proto-KRs is a good thing.

 

What we really don't know, and the next book may explain more, is how much Nalan knew and when. The Skybreakers and Ghostbloods appear to be aligned by their actions but could be coming from entirely different directions. The Ghostbloods seem to be a cosmere wide organization, similar to the 17th Shard. (huh, is there a WOB on that?)

 

So, enough rambling for me for now. Great theory, but ... there's so much we don't know, and maybe won't know until Dalinar's book - which theoretically should deal a lot with the KR history. No doubt we'll learn more of it in the upcoming two books, though. Hopefully the next book will detail the Heraldic corruption (if it is indeed a corruption).

[kari-no-sugata]

The difference between Szeth and regular Surgebinders is that he is using an Honorblade and has sworn no oaths. Nalan didn't hunt him down, so that probably means that it's the process of speaking the oaths that has Nalan thinking Surgebinders can return the Desolations (or else he'd kill Szeth). There's a WoB saying that the Radiants were part of the Oathpact, which probably means speaking the oaths puts one into the Oathpact. The Oathpact is what brings the Desolations (as per the prelude in WoK - the Heralds thought breaking the Oathpact broke the cycle of Desolations).

 

Nalan seems unique (among those in the know) in this aspect. Certainly Honor's visions indicate that the Radiants are part of the solution, not part of the problem and we've not seen any of the other Heralds take similar action (yet?). The Stormfather seems to consider Radiants to be untrustworthy spren-killers rather than Desolation summoners.

 

For WoBs, I've found these:

Q:  How many parties were there to the original Oathpact?

A:  The Heralds and Honor. They thought that by walking away from their oaths, that it would break the Oathpact. They're going to find out that it's not quite as broken as they had previously thought (meaning the Heralds).

Q:  Is there any of the Oathpact still functioning because of Taln's continued participation.

A:  Yes, indeed.

  

This makes sense since the Radiants were more of an accident. This also indicates that the Radiants are not part of the Oathpact - or at least that the Heralds are not aware of any such linkage (because they knowing left the Radiants after the Last Desolation while also thinking they had broken the Oathpact)

 

There's also this WoB:

Q:  And, how were the Radiants able to summon their Shardblades at the Recreance if they'd already decided to break their oaths?

A:  Their Shardblades are part of what brought them to--part of the Oathpact--but breaking the Oathpact did not affect their ability to bond or unbond Shardblades.

 

Which to be honest doesn't make much sense - reads like a transcription error.

 

The Radiant oaths start with "life before death". I have a hard time believing any theory which has them warring amongst each other, or with humanity, particular in any manner which would result in a lot of deaths that is Desolation-like.

 

Also, by this logic, Nalan would attempt to stop any leader that tried to take over the world and committed mass killings - the Sunmaker being a prime example. Nalan did not kill the Sunmaker, nor has he killed Taravangian, nor has he killed Szeth, which leads one to suspect he doesnt care about actual wars, but Desolations as in actual Odium-caused Desolations.

We know for certain that the Radiants (or Surgebinders with spren bonds to be more generic) are not perfect. A rogue one caused a major war in Dalinar's flashback of Nohadon. Maybe their oaths have been strengthened since then but that doesn't make them perfect - the in-world Words of Radiance book talks of one being executed for crimes. The first Oath still allows the killing of Voidbringers (and presumably plants and animals for food) and opponents in general. It would limit what they could do - it would be very hard for them to commit "war crimes" for example. Jasnah's research says that Urithiru was abandoned well before the Recreance, which indicates that some things were falling apart, either between Radiants or nations or both.

 

For reference I think the Recreance occurred about 3000 years after the Last Desolation - more than enough time for some things to decay.

 

You raise goods points about Szeth and Taravangian but I'm not sure about the Sunmaker, who seems more like a freedom fighter - he fought to bring down the Hierocracy and I don't remember him being particularly destructive.

[navybrandt]

 

- As soon as one or maybe all (not sure) of the Heralds broke under torture, a Desolation would begin. (Widely accepted on these boards but not proven)

If this theory is true, I suspect that it was as soon as one Herald broke under torture - not all.  The previous Desolations happened much more regularly (every few hundred years I think, but I don't remember the reference).  This last Desolation is happening about 4500 years after the previous one.  I believe that when the "weakest" Herald broke, the Desolation happened, but only Taln was being tortured this time.  He might have a much stronger will and not break so "easily," which is why it took 4500 years for the Desolation to happen again.  This is supported by the fact that Taln (supposedly) said he "failed" at the end of WoK.

[Moogle]

Nalan seems unique (among those in the know) in this aspect. Certainly Honor's visions indicate that the Radiants are part of the solution, not part of the problem and we've not seen any of the other Heralds take similar action (yet?). The Stormfather seems to consider Radiants to be untrustworthy spren-killers rather than Desolation summoners.

 

Honor's "solution" involves the Desolations themselves. This much is apparent, as the Oathpact was between Honor and the Heralds originally, and the Heralds thought breaking the Oathpact meant breaking the Desolations. Just because Honor says something is a solution does not make that a very effective solution! The Stormfather is something of a copy of Honor himself, so naturally he's fine with the Desolations and doesn't hold it against the KR.

 

Nalan is against the Desolations, so naturally he's against Honor's plan.

 

There's also this WoB:

 

Which to be honest doesn't make much sense - reads like a transcription error.

 

I agree, something seems off about it. That said, it would be very hard to mess up the transcription enough to include the word "Oathpact" if Brandon never said it. I believe the Radiants being part of the Oathpact makes sense; the spren copied the Honorblades, and the Honorblades are apparently what bound the Heralds to it (since they gave up their Blades to leave it).

 

We know for certain that the Radiants (or Surgebinders with spren bonds to be more generic) are not perfect. A rogue one caused a major war in Dalinar's flashback of Nohadon. Maybe their oaths have been strengthened since then but that doesn't make them perfect - the in-world Words of Radiance book talks of one being executed for crimes. The first Oath still allows the killing of Voidbringers (and presumably plants and animals for food) and opponents in general. It would limit what they could do - it would be very hard for them to commit "war crimes" for example. Jasnah's research says that Urithiru was abandoned well before the Recreance, which indicates that some things were falling apart, either between Radiants or nations or both.

 

As you note, the civil war caused by a Surgebinder was pre-Radiant oaths. I don't consider it all that relevant because the oaths change a ton of things, making it pretty much irrelevant.

 

As to Jasnah's notes saying Urithiru was abandoned way pre-Recreance, can you provide a quote? I'm afraid I don't recall that, and a quick ctrl+f is not giving me much.

 

As to one Radiant being executed for crimes, I don't consider that too big of an issue and it doesn't strike me as a signal of widespread problems. The Knights have a wide range of philosophies - Jasnah, for example, is perfectly willing to assassinate people. That could get her executed if it came to light, I imagine, and something very much like that could very well have happened in the execution you mention.

 

It's a strong possibility that you're right, though. We have too little evidence to speak with much confidence.

 

You raise goods points about Szeth and Taravangian but I'm not sure about the Sunmaker, who seems more like a freedom fighter - he fought to bring down the Hierocracy and I don't remember him being particularly destructive.

 

The following quote, I think, is ample evidence:

“All wars are games. The greatest kind, with the pieces lost real lives, the prizes captured making for real wealth! This is the life for which men exist. To fight, to kill, to win.”

 

This is attributed to the Sunmaker. He was 17 when he lead a campaign to unite Alethkar and overthrow the Hierocracy. (Gavilar later used him as inspiration for his bloody war to conquer Alethkar.) He later proclaimed the Hierocracy's visions were "lies". History is written by the victors, and the Sunmaker could hardly say "nope, turns out their visions were completely real oops I just killed actual religious figures". If we didn't know whether or not the Sunmaker was going to denounce the priests beforehand and all we knew was he won a war against them, what would we predict he would say for the history books?

 

We know that visions from the Almighty are real and have happened previously - I give a greater than 30% chance that the Hierocracy received similar visions to the ones Dalinar and Gavilar obtained.

 

Overall, I think it would not be a stretch to call the Sunmaker a tyrant of sorts who lead a bloody war to take power and then turned an entire group of people (priests) into slaves. Nalan didn't intervene. This is sort of a tangent, though, I admit. Taravangian is probably the best example.

[Arondell]

 

As to Jasnah's notes saying Urithiru was abandoned way pre-Recreance, can you provide a quote? I'm afraid I don't recall that, and a quick ctrl+f is not giving me much. 

 

Ta da!

 

 

“Urithiru was said to be the center of the Silver Kingdoms, a city that held ten thrones, one for each king. It was the most majestic, most amazing, most important city in all the world.” “Really? Why hadn’t I heard of it before?” “Because it was abandoned even before the Lost Radiants turned against mankind.

Sanderson, Brandon (2010-08-31). The Way of Kings (The Stormlight Archive) (p. 630). Macmillan. Kindle Edition.

 

It may or may not be related to this but I've been kind of wondering about one of the quotes from the in-world Words of Radiance.

 

 

So Melishi retired to his tent, and resolved to destroy the Voidbringers upon the next day, but that night did present a different stratagem, related to the unique abilities of the Bondsmiths; and being hurried, he could make no specific account of his process; it was related to the very nature of the Heralds and their divine duties, an attribute the Bondsmiths alone could address. —From Words of Radiance, chapter 30, page 18

Sanderson, Brandon (2014-03-04). Words of Radiance (Stormlight Archive, The) (p. 675). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

 

Granted we are warned that their are errors in the book but this part sounds like Melishi was playing with fire.  Tinkering with the fundamental nature of the power of the heralds.  Kind of makes me wonder if he somehow messed up how the Oathpact was supposed to work.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Arondell

[Moogle]

Ta da!

 

Thanks. There isn't a timeline given for when they abandoned Urithiru - to me, it could easily have been a few months before while the Knights prepared to all give up at once or something. If it's in a history book, though, it seems more likely to be years. Something to think about, for sure...

 

It may or may not be related to this but I've been kind of wondering about one of the quotes from the in-world Words of Radiance.

 

 

Granted we are warned that their are errors in the book but this part sounds like Melishi was playing with fire.  Tinkering with the fundamental nature of the power of the heralds.  Kind of makes me wonder if he somehow messed up how the Oathpact was supposed to work.

 

I think you're applying too much significance to the quote.

 

First of all, there's a major issue in that Melishi just decided to destroy the Voidbringers one night; if someone is messing up with the Oathpact, like you're suggesting, I imagine they're not going to decide to suddenly do it one night and then implement their plan in the morning.

 

Second of all, this is a full book that Shallan and Jasnah have read. If this passage refers to the Voidbringers being locked away, or the Oathpact being altered, Shallan would know that because she's read the surrounding writing. She's of the belief that the Voidbringers are the parshmen, and any information about how they got into their current state would be world-altering to her. She would also mention if it involved changing the Oathpact or something else, I think. She never once comments on this passage.

 

The quote applies much more naturally if you think of Melishi as a leader of an army attacking a group of Voidbringers. He spent the day discussing strategy with this generals and other people, and plans were drawn up, but then during the night he thought of a different strategy (possibly involving his unique combination of Surges, or perhaps involving asking the Stormfather to send a highstorm - something like that, or it could just be that he was supernaturally good at strategy like Dalinar). Then, in the morning, they had to hurry to implement his new strategy and he didn't have time to explain his strategy to anyone because it came to him in a dream. Presumably, he just started barking orders.

 

Dalinar himself has started receiving special dreams, and Melishi came upon his idea during the night. I think there's a connection.

 

As to the part where it says "it was related to the very nature of the Heralds and their divine duties, an attribute the Bondsmiths alone could address", if we look at the Ars Arcanum, Bondsmiths are Pious/Guiding. Certainly fits the idea of him just coming upon a new strategy - the attribute that the Bondsmiths alone could address is Guiding (or perhaps Pious meaning that he brought a highstorm via the Stormfather, which counts as interceding with god or something to the writer of the book).

Edited September 10, 2014 by Moogle

[Arondell]

As to the part where it says "it was related to the very nature of the Heralds and their divine duties, an attribute the Bondsmiths alone could address", if we look at the Ars Arcanum, Bondsmiths are Pious/Guiding. Certainly fits the idea of him just coming upon a new strategy - the attribute that the Bondsmiths alone could address is Guiding (or perhaps Pious meaning that he brought a highstorm via the Stormfather, which counts as interceding with god or something to the writer of the book).

 

I get the impression your seeing "related to the very nature of the Bondsmiths and their divine duties."  I'm not going to insist on some particular interpretation but I do feel this is a non-trivial hint pointing to...something.  It is a description of a particular event not just a brief description of the Bondsmiths which we already have.

[Savanorn]

I get the impression your seeing "related to the very nature of the Bondsmiths and their divine duties."  I'm not going to insist on some particular interpretation but I do feel this is a non-trivial hint pointing to...something.  It is a description of a particular event not just a brief description of the Bondsmiths which we already have.

 

Exactly, further, if a Bondsmith can truly alter the nature of the Nahel Bond/Oathpact/whatever but couldn't really explain what they did,. that passage may be the best people get. 

[kari-no-sugata]

The following occurred to me on the way in this morning: I've generally been arguing that we have probably been "misinterpreting" Nalan's statements - that I don't think the "obvious" interpretation is supported by the rest of the text and he therefore means something else. However, it's also plausible that he means exactly what he says but is in fact wrong - this is the subject of the rest of my post.

 

We know for certain that the Heralds are wrong about some things - WoB says that "They have not completely broken the Oathpact, despite what they may think", for example. I also think that the Heralds are "broken" to various degrees - certainly from Lift's point of view, "Darkness" is really warped. Is it possible that he has gotten muddled about some things? In response to "Are the Heralds aware that Taln is back?" Brandon says "the return of the Voidbringers does indeed indicate to them, in their mind, that he would have returned." Has Nalan seen the signs but jumped to the wrong conclusion somehow? Yes, this is a stretch.

 

Normally when a Desolation occurs the return of the Voidbringers leads to increased numbers of spren bonding humans (ie Radiants) to combat them. So Taln's return causes a Desolation which causes the return of the Voidbringers which causes the return of the Radiants. But Nalan is not reacting as if that is true currently - does that mean that sequence is wrong or does it mean Nalan is wrong? Could Nalan be "shooting the messenger"?

 

(I'll write more when I get time...)

[Moogle]

Normally when a Desolation occurs the return of the Voidbringers leads to increased numbers of spren bonding humans (ie Radiants) to combat them. So Taln's return causes a Desolation which causes the return of the Voidbringers which causes the return of the Radiants. But Nalan is not reacting as if that is true currently - does that mean that sequence is wrong or does it mean Nalan is wrong? Could Nalan be "shooting the messenger"?

 

I think the sequence of Herald returns -> Desolation -> more Surgebinders is irrelevant to Nalan's actions. If Nalan is simply making a mistake of correlation implying causality, it's going to lead to the most boring redemption scene ever as Nalan apologizes for his mistake after receiving a five minute crash course in statistics, and we have ample evidence saying that sequence of events is the correct one.

 

As well, he's the Herald of Justice: he'd be trained in how to know who is responsible for a crime (else how could he bring justice?), and how to look at the evidence and come to the correct conclusion. And he's damnation good at this - he managed to research Ym's past and correctly determine he was involved in a murder. That's something any ordinary person would be hard-pressed to manage, I think. The evidence points to him having a good reason for killing Surgebinders

 

It's also possible he's just stark raving mad, but that does not match at all with our knowledge of him. He's emotionally warped, incapable of feeling, but everything we see says he's sane otherwise.

 

There must be something additional that causes Nalan to think Surgebinders "dabble in arts that could return Desolation" to Roshar. The only fitting theory I've been able to come up with is that Radiants cause the Oathpact to continue functioning despite the Heralds' best attempts to destroy it, and I'm just not satisfied with any other explanations I've seen as yet.

 

I like the lines the original poster of this thread went along - he added to the chain of events, saying that Surgebinders caused Heralds to return more quickly. I don't think Surgebinding causes pain to the Heralds (no mechanism there makes sense), and I think there is an entirely separate chain of events, but I think he's hit upon the right sort of thinking that will lead to solving this mystery.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Moogle

[Andrew C]

The following occurred to me on the way in this morning: I've generally been arguing that we have probably been "misinterpreting" Nalan's statements - that I don't think the "obvious" interpretation is supported by the rest of the text and he therefore means something else. However, it's also plausible that he means exactly what he says but is in fact wrong - this is the subject of the rest of my post.

 

We know for certain that the Heralds are wrong about some things - WoB says that "They have not completely broken the Oathpact, despite what they may think", for example. I also think that the Heralds are "broken" to various degrees - certainly from Lift's point of view, "Darkness" is really warped. Is it possible that he has gotten muddled about some things? In response to "Are the Heralds aware that Taln is back?" Brandon says "the return of the Voidbringers does indeed indicate to them, in their mind, that he would have returned." Has Nalan seen the signs but jumped to the wrong conclusion somehow? Yes, this is a stretch.

 

Normally when a Desolation occurs the return of the Voidbringers leads to increased numbers of spren bonding humans (ie Radiants) to combat them. So Taln's return causes a Desolation which causes the return of the Voidbringers which causes the return of the Radiants. But Nalan is not reacting as if that is true currently - does that mean that sequence is wrong or does it mean Nalan is wrong? Could Nalan be "shooting the messenger"?

 

(I'll write more when I get time...)

 

My theory is indeed predicated on Nalan being right. If he is wrong, the whole theory can be thrown in the bin. It's definitely possible.

[Shardcellist]

There must be something additional that causes Nalan to think Surgebinders "dabble in arts that could return Desolation" to Roshar. The only fitting theory I've been able to come up with is that Radiants cause the Oathpact to continue functioning despite the Heralds' best attempts to destroy it, and I'm just not satisfied with any other explanations I've seen as yet.

 

I like this. We know that the Radiants are part of the Oathpact, so it makes sense.

 

Will add more when I have time...

[kari-no-sugata]

I think the sequence of Herald returns -> Desolation -> more Surgebinders is irrelevant to Nalan's actions. If Nalan is simply making a mistake of correlation implying causality, it's going to lead to the most boring redemption scene ever as Nalan apologizes for his mistake after receiving a five minute crash course in statistics, and we have ample evidence saying that sequence of events is the correct one.

I think that Nalan is going to be somewhat dammed by his actions either way: Taln's return guarantees a proper Desolation (most likely). The Heralds aren't currently up to the job of protecting humanity and nobody else except the Radiants could stand up to an army of Voidbringers - killing off proto-Radiants is likely playing into Odium's hands. All the Heralds are likely going to need some kind of redemption (except maybe Taln).

If Nalan is "shooting the messenger" it's probably not due to a lack of understanding of statistics but something else: for example, maybe he can't forgive himself for abandoning Taln and/or the Oathpact and to escape the pain he's actually erased Taln from his mind (or at least, Taln's fate). If he's effectively forgotten about Taln then maybe he's jumping to the wrong conclusion.

 

As well, he's the Herald of Justice: he'd be trained in how to know who is responsible for a crime (else how could he bring justice?), and how to look at the evidence and come to the correct conclusion. And he's damnation good at this - he managed to research Ym's past and correctly determine he was involved in a murder. That's something any ordinary person would be hard-pressed to manage, I think. The evidence points to him having a good reason for killing Surgebinders

 

Expertise in investigating humans doesn't give one expertise in understanding magic systems.

 

It's also possible he's just stark raving mad, but that does not match at all with our knowledge of him. He's emotionally warped, incapable of feeling, but everything we see says he's sane otherwise.

I'm pretty sure he's sincere. But I'm also pretty sure he's clearly making mistakes - his emotional state is a big warning sign that all is not well. I very much doubt that's the only thing wrong with him.

 

There must be something additional that causes Nalan to think Surgebinders "dabble in arts that could return Desolation" to Roshar. The only fitting theory I've been able to come up with is that Radiants cause the Oathpact to continue functioning despite the Heralds' best attempts to destroy it, and I'm just not satisfied with any other explanations I've seen as yet.

I don't find this answer very satisfying for the following reasons: there's no evidence that there's ever been a real Desolation without involving the Heralds, no other major "ancient" seems to agree with him (Honor, the Stormfather, the spren, the other Heralds, Hoid) and it just seems plain unnecessary for the plot - a real Desolation is coming anyway (courtesy of Taln's return). Also, before tWoK came out Brandon was talking about how he wants to do a story where the magic is coming back rather than going away and making the Radiants inherently flawed (in that they summon Desolations) seems to be going against that.

 

Though my previous post considered the possibility that Nalan is wrong I still think it's more likely that we're misinterpreting him. This is mostly because he says "could" - "dabble in arts that could return Desolation to Roshar". This is very different to saying "dabble in arts that would return Desolation to Roshar". The use of the word "could" indicates uncertainty. Now, is he effectively saying "I've got no proof but on the off-chance that Surgebinders using the Nahel bond might summon a Desolation I'm going to kill all of them, providing I'm can find some other unrelated crime they've committed"!? Does it mean that he would not kill a Surgebinder if he cannot find some suitable crime, even though he believes they summon Desolations!?  I don't think he's that crazy.

 

Instead the uncertainty may be about how individual Surgebinders might act. If Nalan views them all as "potential WMDs who are uniquely dangerous" then maybe the reason why he's killing those who have committed past crimes is that he sees them as likely to commit new crimes with their new found Surgebinding powers. Sort-of like him and his new Skybreakers are the "Reckoners" and Radiants are "Epics".

 

I think his attitude towards Szeth indicates a flaw in his love of the law - ie you can follow the law and still be morally wrong or heinous.

[Moogle]

Good post! It's given me a lot to think about.

 

I think that Nalan is going to be somewhat dammed by his actions either way: Taln's return guarantees a proper Desolation (most likely). The Heralds aren't currently up to the job of protecting humanity and nobody else except the Radiants could stand up to an army of Voidbringers - killing off proto-Radiants is likely playing into Odium's hands. All the Heralds are likely going to need some kind of redemption (except maybe Taln).

 

I disagree that the Radiants are as important as you're suggesting. I've made huge posts on this before, so I'll try to keep my arguments on this point brief. (Maybe it's worth a new thread?)

• I estimate there were a few thousand Radiants at any given Desolation, given the number of Shards out there. Similarly, there were only ten Heralds. When there were no Radiants and only Heralds, humanity still won the Desolations (though it was hard). When there were Radiants, Desolations were not appreciably easier (the Heralds remark they got tougher, in fact). If Radiants were as vital as you're suggesting, their inclusion should have made Desolations a cakewalk. Similarly, since each Radiant is sort of like a mini-Herald, the Heralds are also not all that vital for combat (they're more useful for organizing humanity and raising the tech level high enough to survive).
• My conclucision is that the Heralds and Radiants are useful, but have nothing on good ol' armies of humans. 
• Radiants and Heralds can swing their Shardblades around all they want, they're still so limited in numbers that Odium could attack everywhere at once and humanity would be doomed if it relied on the Radiants.
• If the Radiants were necessary, Taravangian would not seek to seek backup plans for destroying them. He believes he can win without them (caveat: unless the Radiants fight him and create a giant civil war and doom everyone which signs do point towards), and so it seems likely that this is possible.

This Desolation:

• Humanity has a degree of tech much higher than any previous Desolation.
• Humanity has Shards, which make the loss of the Radiants that much less unfortunate.
• Humanity has a plan, which, if followed (spoilers: it won't be), has a very high chance of working.

I don't think humanity needs the Radiants or the Heralds. They'd be nice to have, but they can get by without them I think.

 

If Nalan is "shooting the messenger" it's probably not due to a lack of understanding of statistics but something else: for example, maybe he can't forgive himself for abandoning Taln and/or the Oathpact and to escape the pain he's actually erased Taln from his mind (or at least, Taln's fate). If he's effectively forgotten about Taln then maybe he's jumping to the wrong conclusion.

 

This is an interesting theory. I don't feel it's very likely, and I think it would be unsatisfying dramatically, but I can see the sort of lines you're thinking along now.

 

Expertise in investigating humans doesn't give one expertise in understanding magic systems.

 

The same underlying skills are used in both. Nalan has shown the ability to execute plans flawlessly and predict the actions of others with with remarkable accuracy. His trap to catch Lift, his ability to be in exactly the right place to find Szeth's body in the middle of two storms without being seen, his ability to determine the history of a shoemaker who completely dropped off the map for a long time ... the man has some sort of supernatural competence, or something.

 

He's had thousands of years to determine and investigate the magic system, and keeps in regular contact with other Heralds who could have done the same. If he says something like "Surgebinders can bring Desolations", well, I'll trust him on that one until such a point as he's been demonstrated to not be rational. (His competence and ability to execute plans strongly signal he is thinking very clearly.)

 

I don't find this answer very satisfying for the following reasons: there's no evidence that there's ever been a real Desolation without involving the Heralds, no other major "ancient" seems to agree with him (Honor, the Stormfather, the spren, the other Heralds, Hoid) and it just seems plain unnecessary for the plot - a real Desolation is coming anyway (courtesy of Taln's return). Also, before tWoK came out Brandon was talking about how he wants to do a story where the magic is coming back rather than going away and making the Radiants inherently flawed (in that they summon Desolations) seems to be going against that.

 

Taln is still ultimately what triggers a Desolation. There's a WoB stating that the Heralds believe he's back since the Desolation has started. I don't think Nalan would disagree here that Taln's return starts a Desolation. I'm thinking that it's something the Radiants do that causes Taln to either be able to return, or else cause his return to be significant. (Again, the Radiants-sustain-the-Oathpact theory works well here and I can't find alternatives.)

 

The other major ancients don't disagree with him, either. Honor wants the Radiants reformed, but he never says they don't cause the Desolation. The Stormfather doesn't want the Radiants reformed, though that's because they killed a bunch of his children. The other Heralds have had basically all of three on-screen lines and never had a chance or reason to bring it up, and Hoid wants the Desolations to continue so Rayse will stay bound, so he wouldn't bring it up anyways (he's willing to "let the world burn", after all).

 

As to "magic is coming back", it is and has been for a long time on Roshar. Fabrials are advancing remarkably quickly, if nothing else. I also disagree that the Radiants causing Desolations would go against the idea. I could see the end of the series being the Radiants remaining at full-strength and never going away again, which fits the definition. Plus, if they can make it through this Desolation without super-significant casualties, they're fit to solidly win against Desolations in the future as their tech increases in power. (Fabrial machine guns, anyone?)

 

Though my previous post considered the possibility that Nalan is wrong I still think it's more likely that we're misinterpreting him. This is mostly because he says "could" - "dabble in arts that could return Desolation to Roshar". This is very different to saying "dabble in arts that would return Desolation to Roshar". The use of the word "could" indicates uncertainty. Now, is he effectively saying "I've got no proof but on the off-chance that Surgebinders using the Nahel bond might summon a Desolation I'm going to kill all of them, providing I'm can find some other unrelated crime they've committed"!? Does it mean that he would not kill a Surgebinder if he cannot find some suitable crime, even though he believes they summon Desolations!?  I don't think he's that crazy.

 

'Could' could also refer to the fact that he thinks Taln might be able to stay in Damnation forever, so while the Radiants may enable his return to start a Desolation, it's not guaranteed that they will.

 

I think he wouldn't kill a Surgebinder if he couldn't find a suitable crime. Ultimately, he was a Herald of Honor, not a Herald of Utility. I feel that giving up the Oathpact was enough to shake his confidence in himself and make him question everything, so he clings on to the law as one thing he can follow and believe in (as it won't ever fail him) - hence his saying, “Without the law, there is nothing. You will subject yourself to their rules, and accept the dictates of justice. It is all we have, the only sure thing in this world.” We may have different opinions on that, but to me he's ultimately been set up as someone who would never break the law.

 

I also doubt he'd go after Surgebinders without proof. He seems to follow an "innocent unless proven guilty" mentality, else he wouldn't have researched Ym before whacking him. There's no real reason to go after Surgebinders rather than the big crime bosses (as Lift argues) unless he's near-certain they can cause a Desolation.

[hoser]

I think the Radiants were hugely important. 

• Before the Radiants:  Entire nations were annihilated.  After: ten stable kingdoms. persisting across multiple desolations. 
• Current technology:  primitive compared to that of the Radiants. 
• Humans w/Shards << Radiants w/Shards (reread Kaladin vs Moash and the other Alethi traitor (who both had armor) if you are in doubt)

Taravangian's plan: assisted by Odium (unmade support w/Szeth, prophecy and the Thrill in the civil war in Jah Keved).  

 

Even if Mr. T is not entirely misguided, his goal is not to win, but to survive.  

 

Nale's behavior makes no sense given what we know, so interpreting it can lead wherever we want. 

[kari-no-sugata]

Moogle, to cut a long story short... you seem to be saying that the protagonists basically aren't needed and everything can be safely left to the amoral types who seem to know what they're doing. Is that about right?

[Moogle]

Moogle, to cut a long story short... you seem to be saying that the protagonists basically aren't needed and everything can be safely left to the amoral types who seem to know what they're doing. Is that about right?

 

I am saying that the protagonists will require armies (which they have) in order to win the Desolation. I think that a few thousand Radiants, solo, against the Desolation would lose. My logic is essentially that the Radiants didn't make Desolations a cakewalk, so the reason humanity won previous Desolations was because millions of humans were willing to fight the Voidbringers.

 

Because of this, I think that Taravangian and the other "amoral" types could "win" the Desolation. I also think the main Radiants could win the Desolation. The Radiants are nice and useful, they're special, but they're not 100% required. I don't care who ends up winning against the Desolation, only that someone does. This isn't a competition. We could discuss the options for which faction has the best chances of winning in another thread if you want.

 

I feel that people place entirely too much emphasis on the Radiants. "Without the Radiants, everyone is doomed!" is just something I don't think is true. They got by in previous Desolations without them.

Edited September 14, 2014 by Moogle