Quick Fix Game 2: Crushthroat's Beginnings

[jaelre]

Vote tally: 

Jain(1): Wyrm, 

Jene (2): Mai, Jain,

Mai (3): Jeno, Jene, Matim

Jeno (1): Hreo, Jain

Riitii (1): Jatae

 

I'm gonna vote for Riitii. At this point his chart shows that while the upper part of the chart worked, the lower doesn't. I was surely influenced by it, i wonder if my naiveté, and possibly not only mine, was something you willingly chose to exploit?

 

At this point Jeno seems cleared to me. WGG seems something that would require some complex planning. Assuming the Mutineers are 4, and there's no twist in the cycle, the 1st one is going to receive the 2nd pm tonight. If they're 3 it would have been yesterday, but it seems that too many pieces were needed and too much coordination required.

[Renegade]

Arrr, I be back.  So th’ good news be that by this point, I feel reasonably sure ‘bout everyone’s position an’ activity so far, so I personally am goin’ ta stop votin’ fer people just fer th’ information.  Ye all can do whatev’r ye like, but as of now, since I feel time be runnin’ short fer our crew, I be mostly votin’ fer me actual suspects.

 

An' this week, I be votin’ fer Jain, because while his odd actions an’ votin’ ain’t completely indicative of him bein’ a Mutineer, I think his style o’ play is bein’ rather counterproductive fer the crew.  I mean, he seems ta be tryin’ ta purposely join in on bandwagons an’ vote fer people with verrry little clear reasonin', which I don' support at all.

 

I was thinkin’ ‘bout puttin’ up another list o’ me suspicions, but I be against it now.  Ye all should find yer own suspicious an’ vote based on them.  If ye really can’t figure out who be suspicious (which shouldn’t be too harrrd), then fine, I might reveal me list.  But I would ratherrr let people come to thar own conclusions than be influenced by mine, so we can get more ideas an’ prevent bandwagons.  I will say, howev'r, that I have one main suspect right now (not Jain), but I can't really figure out why I suspect 'im.  I'll see what I information I can find tonight, if I have th' time.

 

Edit: Grammar

Edited July 10, 2014 by Renegade

[Mailliw73]

Today is too quiet. What happened? Just because we lost Kas doesn't mean we have to stop talking.

Here are each week's voting tallies together:

Week 1:

Jene- lll (Mai, Kai, Riitiidiikiir)

Jain- l (Ratel)

Luka- l (Jeno)

Riitiidiikiir- l (Jene)

Matim- l (Wyrm)

Hreo- l (Jatae)

Jeno- l (Riingar)

Kal FangShi- l (Jain)

Jatae- l (Hreo)

Wyrm- l (Matim)

Aonar- l (Kal FangShi)

Ratel- l (Aonar)

Mai- l (Luka)

Deaths: Aonar, Jene(took a hit)

Week 2:

Jene- ll (Mai, Wyrm)

Kal FangShi- lll (Kai, Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo)

Wyrm- lll (Jene, Jeno, Luka)

Luka- l (Jatae)

Ratel- l (Jain)

Mai- l (Ratel)

Kai- l (Matim)

No Votes- (Kal FangShi)

Deaths: Ratel

Week 3:

Kal FangShi- Vll (Jeno, Wyrm, Jatae, Riingar, Hreo, Riitiidiikiir, Luka)

Jene- lll (Mai, Matim, Kal FangShi)

Mai- ll (Jene, Jain)

Jatae- l (Kai)

Deaths: Kai, Kal(Took a hit)

Week 4:

Kal FangShi- V (Jatae, Jain, Hreo, Riitiidiikiir, Luka)

Mai- l (Jeno, Jene)

Hreo- ll (Riingar, Mai)

Jatae- l (Matim)

Jain- l (Wyrm)

No Votes- Kal FangShi

Deaths: Jeno(took a hit), Kal(final death)

Week 5 currently:

Jain(2): Wyrm, Riingar

Jene (2): Mai, Jain,

Mai (3): Jeno, Jene, Matim

Jeno (1): Hreo

Riitii (1): Jatae

The first thing I notice is: Each week, Riitiidiikiiiir has voted for the person with the most votes.

Edited July 10, 2014 by Mailliw73

[luckat]

Okay, I don’t really think that voting for someone just because they are a gunner is a good idea. It’s possible that assuming that one of the three gunners is a Mutineer is likely to go about as well as assuming that one of the three spanreed holders was a ghostblood went in game 5. We don’t know that there are no more gunners, and I wouldn’t expect any more to speak up at this point, no matter which side they are on. Also, just because there are no safe roles, it does not mean that there has to be a gunner that is a Mutineer. I wouldn’t put it past Meta tell us that there are no safe roles, but still give all of them to us. I’m not saying that I think the Mutineers don’t have a gunner. I’m just saying that the fact that someone is a gunner and the other gunners seem loyal shouldn’t be the strongest argument for voting for them. Even if we could know that one of the gunners we know about is a Mutineer, we’d basically be taking a fifty-fifty chance that we’re right when hopefully we can do better than that by analyzing everyone’s actions to this point.

The first thing I notice is: Each week, Riitiidiikiiiir has voted for the person with the most votes.

Analyzing votes seems like a good idea. That is a good point about Riitiidiikiiiir. It could be just as good to look at when he voted as who he voted for. Week 1, he was the last vote on Jene to keep the Mutineers from doing a last-minute captain vote, and he voted Jain earlier. Week 2, he followed Riingar’s vote for Kal and week 3, he led the vote for Kal. Week 4, he voted for Kal again after Jain did. Honestly, it looks more like he wanted Kal dead than like he was following the crowd.

It could be helpful to look at all of the votes that have been placed on Kal, since he is the only person who has been lynched for whom we know his alliance.

Week 1: Jain

Week 2: Wyrm, Riingar, Riitiidiikiiiir, Kai, Hreo

Week 3: Riitiidiikiiiir, Riingar, Luka, Hreo, Wyrm, Jeno, Jatae

Week 4: Jain, Riitiidiikiiiir, Hreo, Jatae, Luka

Two people voted for him three times: Riitiidiikiiiir and Hreo. Only one person ever retracted a vote for him: Wyrm.

Edit:

@Mai Thanks for clarifying whether Jeno could have been saved by the buckler. That's all I really wanted you to tell us. I agree that giving too much information could be a bad idea.

@Riingar It is good to let others come to their own conclusions, but I hope that if you are confident in your suspicions you will share them later today for in case the Mutineers decide to kill you. You're in a position where I'm worried they might go after you.

Edited July 10, 2014 by luckat

[Mailliw73]

Honestly, that post makes some of the most sense I've seen all game. Jene to Riiiiiii. That voting thing is really bothering me too.

[Newan]

<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">Hi guys.  Sorry I haven't been as active this cycle.  I've been busy babysitting, plus my mind was completely blown when I found out Kal FangShi wasn't a mutineer.  I'm not ready to post a chart.  I need to reassess.  </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">Mai: What voting thing is bothering you?  I don't understand.  I voted for Kal Fangshi over and over because I thought he was a mutineer.  There was no possible way I could have known he wasn't.  And I'm not one of those people who just votes for somebody who won't be lynched so I can get money and maybe make them talk more.  I vote to kill.  I have to live up to my title.  </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">I'm now more inclined to think that Kal getting saved was just an accident, rather than something set up by the mutineers, but I could be wrong.  I also don't think they would have done a wounded gazelle gambit, but again, I could be wrong.  </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">I need to search through and reread a lot of posts before I vote.  </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">Edit: I read through some.  It appears I have overestimated Hreo's valiance.  He has indeed been about some suspicious behavior.  But at this point I think the most suspicious person is Matim.  Purposefully voting erratically smells like you're trying to throw us off your trail.  The other day Wyrm voted for me just to get me talking and you then jumped onto that vote for no reason.  I wouldn't call your behavior sinister, but it does seem a little bit nefarious to me (no, I didn't make a new section on the chart).  </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:#0000ff;">Another edit: here's my new chart.  I find myself trusting Jatae.  He just hasn't been acting like he knows enough to be a mutineer.  I can't find the heart to put Mai or Jeno very high on the list though.  Mai still feels off to me.  If Jene turns out to be bad, I'll trust Mai a lot more.  </span></p>
<p><img alt="BsOcwjOCUAARvSL.jpg" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsOcwjOCUAARvSL.jpg" /></p>

 

 

 

Edit: I have absolutely no idea what happened there.

Edited July 11, 2014 by New One

[Theorymaker]

I don't know how to vote... I feel like I have the deciding vote right now and have no clue where to put it. But Mai is cleared in my mind right now. I feel mildly suspicious of Riii, but not enough to lynch him. And Jain I have no evidence against Jain but he seems suspicious to me.

 

Matim had gone straight to Mai with his questions and got a swift response. Jeno had just suspected Mai for his own reasons, leaving Matim back to where he was before he accused Mai. Clueless.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Theorymaker

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'm retracting my vote for Mai. But in return, I want you to explain this Post.

 

I definitely do not trust Kal. He just brought up points that I also noticed today. It is quite interesting

 

This was made 20 minutes after Kal died. Had you seen the write up befor writing this?

[Newan]

Ok I thought that Matim would immediately jump onto the vote to kill me.  Maybe I was wrong about you.  Maybe not.  Only time will tell.  I would be happy to see Jain die though.  He has been no help to the faithful crew.  

[luckat]

Hi guys.  Sorry I haven't been as active this cycle.  I've been busy babysitting, plus my mind was completely blown when I found out Kal FangShi wasn't a mutineer.  I'm not ready to post a chart.  I need to reassess.

 

I’m inclined to believe this explanation. Honestly, your actions seem a lot more like someone who sincerely believed that Kal was guilty than like someone who knew he was innocent and was trying to push blame onto him. I almost think that someone who knew that he was innocent would not vote for him during the last cycle so as to not seem as suspicious. Also, I think someone who knew he was innocent would be more prepared for the outcome and probably would have posted sooner.

 

Another edit: here's my new chart.  I find myself trusting Jatae.  He just hasn't been acting like he knows enough to be a mutineer.  I can't find the heart to put Mai or Jeno very high on the list though.  Mai still feels off to me.  If Jene turns out to be bad, I'll trust Mai a lot more.  

 

 

 

Edit: I have absolutely no idea what happened there.

That's strange. It looks like the BBCode changed to HTML somehow. I'll leave your chart here so it's visible on this page.

I decided to look back over Jain’s votes.

Week 1: Kal, after Kal was the second to vote Aonar. Jain said that he didn’t like bandwagons and wanted to even up the votes, although it didn’t really even anything up.

Week 2: Ratel, purely for RP. This was the same week that Ratel died.

Week 3: Mai, because of the messages with Kai.

Week 4: Kal, for no given reason. This was the first vote for Kal after the first attack on him.

Week 5: Jene, although at first it was for Jeno because of the similarity in names. This time Jain said that he liked bandwagons.

Also, votes for Jain:

Week 1: Ratel for RP, Riitiidiikiiiir (later retracted)

Weeks 2-3: None

Week 4: Wyrm (mostly to get him to talk)

Week 5: Wyrm, Riingar, and Riitiidiikiiiir, all because he has been confusing and unhelpful

Normally, I would think that the fact that Jain was the only vote for Ratel the same cycle that Ratel died made it less likely that he was a Mutineer, but given how difficult it is to figure out what he is thinking, I’m not so sure. Overall, even if Jain is loyal, he’s not exactly helpful. He’s hard to really be suspicious of because he’s consistent, but that itself is suspicious. He’s the strongest suspicion I have right now, and it’s a bit late in the cycle to start anything new, so I’m voting for him now.

 

Edit

Current vote tally:

Jain (4): Wyrm, Riingar, Riitiidiikiiiir, Luka

Mai (2): Jeno, Jene, Matim

Riitiidiikiiiir (2): Jatae, Mai

Jene (1): Mai, Jain

Jeno (1): Jain, Hreo

Matim (0): Riitiidiikiiiir

No vote: Jeno

Edited July 11, 2014 by luckat

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'm not certain who to vote for. Mai might be Evil? but Now I'm uncertain. I do agree that Jain needs to either die, or start voting in a logical way, but I think he's loyal. Riitiidiikiiiir, Has been helpful. I don't think he's unloyal. And he moved me up to meh. Jene might be? I'm pretty sure that Jene and Mai are on opposite sides. I'm dead certain of Jeno's loyalty. At this point, I'm going to vote for Jene.

 

But if he's Loyal, I won't stop voting for Mai until he's dead.

[Theorymaker]

I'm not evil it's just my character doesn't like Fjorden people... Oh, wait you mean voting. Yeah, erratic, hiding behind a wild card. Seems like a good plan. Except that seems to be the main reason why Jain is being lynched (if you haven't noticed). Jain I don't want to vote for you, but a lynch is needed and the Mutineers last second right now can outvote us all. Sorry, I won't be on later to change my vote so people just make sure someone is lynched by a four or five vote margin. I don't care who it is you decide on, it could be me for all I care, but make sure whoever it is make it stick!

 

Someone had mentioned that Jain was a killer. When Matim thought about it, it made sense. Him and Ratel had been fighting in the Crow's Nest only for Ratel to eventually end up dead in it. For now that's where his suspicion lies.

[Mailliw73]

I'm retracting my vote for Mai. But in return, I want you to explain this Post.

 

 

This was made 20 minutes after Kal died. Had you seen the write up befor writing this?

  So I had started writing that post before the writeup, but had to leave for a bit. When I got back on, I finished it and posted it before refreshing the page. So the edit was added after I read the writeup.

I'm not certain who to vote for. Mai might be Evil? but Now I'm uncertain. I do agree that Jain needs to either die, or start voting in a logical way, but I think he's loyal. Riitiidiikiiiir, Has been helpful. I don't think he's unloyal. And he moved me up to meh. Jene might be? I'm pretty sure that Jene and Mai are on opposite sides. I'm dead certain of Jeno's loyalty. At this point, I'm going to vote for Jene.

 

But if he's Loyal, I won't stop voting for Mai until he's dead.

I'm not sure Jene and I are on opposite sides. I originally voted for him off a feeling and randomness. I became less suspicious of him and then our loyal Gunner died and you were attacked. I think I'm going to push for his lynching, which will be bad for me if he is innocent. Riiiiii to Jene. Funny how the one day I don't vote for him as much, Joe finally does. I can't bring myself to lynch Jain because he has been erratic in every game. Which, funnily enough, is a good long-term strategy for when he is evil.

[Herowannabe]

I made it into "Meh." Yay! (I probably shouldn't be happy about that, but I am)

It's late and I'm tired and not feeling well so forgive me if I don't elaborate much tonight.

Like Riidiifiigiidiidiifkksjdidb, I voted for Kal repeatedly because I suspected him more than anyone else. Also because I felt like there was a movement among certain players to start steering the vote away from him. Obviously I was wrong. :\

As for Jain, honestly he never really appeared on my suspicion-radar one way or the other until now (which I suppose it means that maybe he should be HIGH on my suspicion list). I don't have any qualms about lynching him, but I'm not going to change my vote now. He's already got enough votes, and I'm going to stand by my vote so that it doesn't get forgotten. I also feel like there is currently a movement among a couple of players to steer suspicion away from the gunners. A movement that didn't start until after it was revealed that Jeno was a gunner.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Maybe I just don't want to be killed?

 

Oh, and remember what we did in game 5? killed all the Spanreed holders because one of them had to evil. . .

[Mailliw73]

And one of them was. You just didn't know that they had one.

[Metacognition]

Week 6- Choppy Waters

The day after Jeno pulled himself out of a possible watery grave, the Crew realized that there must still Mutineers onboard; which meant that their job wasn’t done. As such, they gathered around the mast to try to determine whom amongst them was out to kill their fair Captain over a friendly game of dice. All expect Jain, who was happily resting in the crows nest now that Ratel was gone, and Jeno, who was still recovering below decks, showed up.  

They threw around a few names and there was more than a few choice words thrown around, but luckily no fists were. Eventually they all subsided, lost in their own thoughts as they tried to sort out this knot of a situation. Contrary to popular belief, pirates did not make the greatest detectives.

When one of them spoke again, it seemed like they were about to go off on a tangent.

“That panda thing be blastedly creepy,” said one.

“Aye, seems everywhere I go, there it be,” claimed another.

“It ain’t natural. Something like that could be casting an ill omen over the ship, mark me words,” a third one chimed in.

A hush fell over the Crew and as one, they turned around to find Jain’s panda sitting on a crate nearby… staring straight at them.

“Just ain’t natural,” whispered the third again.

As the Crew stared at the panda and it stared back, Jain picked that time to land directly between them.

“Hey guys! Whatcha doin?”

The spell broken, the Crew moved as one. A few grabbed Jain and held him while the rest of the Crew advanced on his toy panda, drawing their weapons.

“Umm, guys? Whatcha doin?” Jain asked as he struggled slightly in their grasp. As they surrounded his panda, his struggling increased and a nervous edge entered his voice.

“Guys? Is everything okay? Is there anything I can do?” He struggled harder as they raised their weapons. Sweat started to bead on his brow.

“Ha, ha. You guys are funny. It’s a good joke. Now, umm, could you release me and put the weapons down? ….Please?”

His pleas fell on deaf ears. With the first hack, Jain cried out and tried to yank himself free. He fought and cursed and kicked and bit, but his captors had a strong hold on him. With every stab, swipe and bash, Jain cried out in pain as if they were beating him and not just his toy panda.

After they had diced it into very small pieces, the Crew gathered them up and threw the pieces all overboard. By this point in time, the only reason Jain was standing was due to the crew members holding him up. When they let go, Jain slipped to the ground, crying.

“You monsters,” he whispered between sobs. “How could you?”
 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jain spent the rest of the week below deck. He never came out to eat or to drink. He never said a word to anyone. Eventually Matim went to check on him and found him half dead, still mumbling about how could the Crew do that and took him to the infirmary.

With time, his body would heal, but Matim didn’t know if his mind was broken or not.
 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With Ratel gone and Jain comatose, Mai had been chosen for lookout duty and he hated it. It wasn’t the heights that bothered him, nor the sway of the ship on the waves from up there. It was just that being so far from everyone else, he couldn’t help find the traitors! He had made that his goal and he would see it through, come hell or high water!

Speaking of high water, he spotted stormclouds on the horizon. There isn’t much worse than getting caught in a storm out at sea and this one looked to be a strong one. Still, it was on the horizon and they were sailing parallel to it, so it shouldn’t be a problem, so he sat back down to think over his suspicions. If he couldn’t be down there in the thick of things, then he would use his time wisely and try to puzzle it out up here. That way, when he finally was relieved, he could share his revelations.

He was so lost in thought that he didn’t notice how quickly the storm had advanced until a lightning strike almost struck the ship! Pulled out of his thoughts, he stood up to see that the stormwall now blanketed the sky and there was no chance of them not being caught in it anymore. If he had been paying attention, they might have been able to change course, but now it was too late. As the clouds began obscuring the setting sun, Mai could see waterspouts, multiple of them, in this beast of a storm. He shivered at just the idea of trying to sail through this, but the Captain needed to know what they were up against.

The wind had already picked up enough that he wouldn’t be able to holler down to the rest of the Crew, so he climbed out of the nest and started making his way down.

Before he was even a quarter of the way down, rain started pelting the ship and obscuring things even more than the darkened sky had. It was then, in a flash of lightning that Mai saw it. Out in the middle of the storm was the biggest Maelstrom Mai had ever seen! Most wouldn’t even be able to sink a dinghy, but this one looked like it might just be able to sink the AonTeo!

Now he started climbing with acclarity. This wasn’t just about something as petty as how was in charge, this was their lives!

In his haste and the storm, he didn’t stand a chance of seeing the person swinging towards him. All he felt was the firm plant of two feet against his chest and he was sent flying. He cried out as he fell, but the thunder roared and the rain obscured and Mai fell into the choppy waves of the storm-thrust sea. By the time he resurfaced, the AonTeo was nowhere to be seen….
 

______________________________________________________________________________________

Week 6 begins! You have 24 hours, as per usual.

Jain survived! …though the panda didn’t.
Mai was truly an honorable and loyal Powder Monkey.

Votes
Jain- V (Wyrm, Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Matim, Luka)
Jene- lll (Jeno, Jain, Mai)
Mai- l (Jene)
Riitiidiikiir- l (Jatae)
Jeno- l (Hreo)

Edited June 15, 2016 by Alvron

[A Joe in the Bush]

Jene. again.

[Herowannabe]

So do we just suck at lynching people or what? Like seriously, we have to be setting some sort of record here.

So what was it Jain, buckler or gunner?

[Lightsworn Panda]

Ow. That hurt. You can kill me, but why the toy panda!?

 

Right, to answer some questions. I'm a Gunner. There's more than 3, it seems. Also, why the hate? Yes, I am inconsistent (as usual). Wyrm, why are you so bent on lynching me?

[Wyrmhero]

Why am I bent on lynching you? I'm not. I'm bent on getting straight answers out of you. I'm bent on making you not so inconsistent. Erratic play is useless to the loyal faction at best, and a hindrance at worst. The question is whether or not it's a smokescreen for you to be evil behind, and I am of the opinion that it quite easily could be. I didn't expect it to turn into a full lynch, I just wanted you to give a proper reason. This makes twice that my vote has turned into a bandwagon after I've gone offline...

 

Also, how many Gunners do we have??? (I'm doubtful it was the shield, considering you weren't on the radar the previous day)

 

So who has voted for the lynch target the most times? Riitii has done so every cycle, and Luka is just one behind him. However, I'm doubtful that they are both Mutineers (if indeed either of them at all) because they voted in different ways each time. They have both been very helpful to us as well, with Riitii's charts and Luka's explanations. True, it could certainly be a ploy, but I'm not so sure in a Quick Fix game. Not when there can be both non-secret and secret co-ordination with the PM they can send each night.

 

Considering we have 15 players, I expect there to be four Mutineers. This number is a little higher than normal though, so that would explain our apparent abundance of Gunners. Let's look at the votes in which four or more people voted the same way.

• Day 2 - Kal Dell was voted for by Kai, Riingar, Hreo and Riitii
• Day 3 - Kal Dell was voted for by Jeno, Wyrm, Jatae, Riingar, Hreo, Riitii and Luka
• Day 4 - Kal Dell was voted for by Jatae, Jain, Hreo, Riitii and Luka
• Day 5 - Jain was voted for by Wyrm, Riingar, Riitii, Matim and Luka

Now let's assume that the Mutineers couldn't get total co-ordination going, and look at three or more people voting the same way. In addition to the list above, we also get:

• Day 1 - Jene was voted for by  Mai, Kai and Riitii 
• Day 2 - Wyrm was voted for by Jeno, Jene and Matim
• Day 3 - Jene was voted for by Mai, Matim and Kal
• Day 5 - Jene was voted for by Jeno, Mai and Jain

And for the sake of completeness, two votes.

• Day 2 - Jene was voted for by Mai and Wyrm
• Day 3 - Mai was voted for by Jene and Jain
• Day 4 - Hreo was voted for by Riingar and Mai

In addition to this, I am highly suspicious of the people who turned my single vote into a wagon. This would be the vote for Jain on the previous cycle. I am not counting Kal Dell on day 3, because I'm not particularly blaming people for jumping on that. However, the sheer number of people there is very weird. While I'm doubtful that all the Mutineers will be there or none of them will be there (in this case due to the fact that I think there are four), it is interesting that the three who didn't vote that way who aren't dead are Jene, Jain and Matim, people I am already a bit suspicious of.

 

So what does this tell us? A large chunk of the low-scoring votes were by people who have been confirmed to be innocent.

• There were no co-ordinated votes on the first day, aside from the one for Jene. This was done by 2 loyal people and Riitii, so that's not too impressive, and doesn't really hint towards anything (other than possibly Riitii being innocent if Jene is a Mutineer, but this was after his vote wouldn't have made a difference anyway, so it might have been a ploy to seem innocent because he knew Jene was a Mutineer).
• On Day 2, we have two sets of co-ordinated votes, with Kal Dell and Wyrm. Kal Dell was voted for by Kai, Riingar, Hreo and Riitii, all of whom started this long after I retracted my vote, and I was voted for by Jeno, Jene and Matim, for what I consider to be highly spurious reasons. The Kall Dell lynch 'won', but the Grappling Hook was used. I am not sure whether or not this should be considered suspicious or not now we know Kal Dell was innocent, because it requires a lot of co-ordination to get that tied vote. The only way it could be done, in my opinion, is if it was a rogue Mutineer, Kal himself (which we know it's not) or planned very much in advance. Perhaps it was an attempt to force a lynch on me instead that went a bit awry, in which case I am suspicious of Jeno, Jene and Matim (Why did we not look at this angle back then?). It would just seem as though the Mutineers picked their target if they did it well, and there would be little suspicion to fall on them.
• Day 3 has the ridiculous Kal Dell bandwagon. Everyone wants to prove their innocence by lynching someone they suspect. Except that didn't go too well. Kal Dell was voted for by Jeno, Wyrm, Jatae, Riingar, Hreo, Riitii and Luka. Not a single confirmed loyal person amongst them. We also have Jene, voted for by Mai, Matim and Kal. This vote was mostly done by loyal crew, however, which drops Matim down my suspicion list a little, but not entirely off it as it never got anywhere. We also had the vote of Jene and Jain for Mai.
• Day 4 was when the crew finished off Kal Dell. As such, it's not a surprise to see the same players vote for him. The players who did not vote for Kal Dell were Jeno, Mai, Jene, Wyrm, Riingar and Matim. I am suspicious of (most of) them, because there was no need for the Eliminators to continue with this vote, but most of all I am suspicious of Jeno because of the fact that he actually dropped his vote, rather than continuing to vote differently to that bandwagon as some of the others did.
• Day 5, we have the sudden leap on my vote for Jain, which was done by myself, Riingar, Riitii, Matim and Luka. Matim didn't want to vote for Jain, but did so anyway to avoid an apparent deadlock. Jain was 'winning' the lynch 4-2 at that point. In addition to that, previously Matim has used somewhat questionable arguments to vote for people before, which makes me suspicious. In particular, this is after saying that they would do more research to avoid appearing to bandwagon my votes. There is also the Jene vote, by Mai, Jeno and Hreo. Not only did his reasoning boil down to 'I don't think they on the same side', which is kind of an easy assumption to make when they've been voting for each other all game.

But that doesn't quite fit the fact that Jeno was attacked on Day 4, rather than lynched. I won't say that it's not impossible for Jeno to be a Mutineer, but it is certainly less likely. So let's assume that he's not, and look for 'allies' for Matim and Jene.

 

Matim voted for someone with other people thrice, on Days 2, 3 and 5, and therefore this includes Jeno, Jene, Kal, Mai, Hreo, Luka, Riitii, Riingar and myself on the lynch on Jain. Matim has voted on his own for players on Days 1 and 4. With regards to Day 5, while I am also suspicious of Jain, by now the Mutineers would know if Jain was a Gunner (or had obtained a Buckler), and the vote was already made and solidified. Matim's vote didn't change anything there, and so I don't think it's quite a case of either/or as of yet.

 

Jene has voted alongside other people less often though. He has voted alongside  Jeno, Luka, Jain.  Two others that I am suspicious of, though I've mentioned that Jeno is probably innocent. This might also hint towards Luka not being as loyal as we think, considering that she has also voted for the lynchee four out of five times as well.

 

Let's look at another angle instead of voting, and instead see who has been voted for by players who have died.

• Mai - Jene, Jene, Jene, Jene Hreo and Jene.
• Kai - Jene, Kal Dell, Jatae
• Ratel - Jain, Mai
• Kal Dell - Aonar, Jene
• Aonar - Alvron

It's questionable quite how much we can really say that the players were targetted because of these votes. Mailliw, Kas, Alvron and Aonar are all experienced players of the game (debatable with Kas, but he dies early all the time anyway so it's nothing new), and so their dying early is not too suspicious. I am quite surprised by how long Mailliw lasted though, considering he's played the most games out of anyone and survived a long time in them too. There are two main scenarios here that I am considering.

1. Mai kept going after Jene, and so the Mutineers were happy to let him live because they knew that Jene was innocent and therefore Mai was safely barking up the wrong tree. The Mutineers are not in the slightest bit connected to who they kill, and are just doing so based on perceived threat and experience.
2. The Mutineers have killed players who were more personally relevant - Jain and Jatae, in other words, killed Ratel and Kai respectively, and Jene or the fourth Mutineer decided to kill Aonar instead due to the fact that Aonar dies at the end tends to be a good player as well, and killing Mai that early on would be suspicious.  If it was the fourth Mutineer, then this means that the fourth kill could be Jene's to finally kill Mailliw. While I do not think Jatae is a Mutineer (because everyone wants to kill Kas), Kai did also vote for Jene on day one. It is also certainly possible that Jain went after Alvron as soon as he got the kill because of the fact that he was the only one to voice suspicion of Jain at the time. Even if there was another plan in place, we know he doesn't follow kill orders from Rubix' game when he was the Ghostblood, and considering he's an erratic player anyway, it makes sense. Or who knows, maybe Hreo killed Mai? (doubtful, considering how little suspicion Hreo's been under so far).

So overall, my thoughts are this - I am suspicious of Jene, Matim, Luka (partly) and Jain, though I admit the latter is just due to the fact that he is what would be affectionately termed 'a wild card', or perhaps he's using that opinion of him to his advantage. I will vote for Jene, for now.

Edited July 11, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Renegade]

Arrr… Honor be dead again.  An’, anoth’r unsuccessful lynch.  Howev’r, I ain’t hangin' th' jib ‘bout that, b’cause I earned a lot of information from th' last cycle’s lynch.  I did an... experiment.

 

I neverrrr really suspected Jain completely (but enough that he’d make a worthy candidate fer lynchin’), an’ I set this up last cycle to see who’d follow me on a vote if I’d voted fer him with little information proven ‘gainst ‘im.  Th’ thing is, th’ evidence I provided against Jain be not entirely solid at this point in time.  Yes, he be unhelpful ta th’ crew, but th’ fact is tha’ at that point, with a real chance o’ bein’ outnumbered with only a mislynch or two, goin’ off th’ fact that he ain’t helpful ain’t th’ best reasonin’ ta vote fer him.  Yet, Riiaisiipiiiiiiaiiwiiiijiikii, Luka, an’ Matim all voted fer ‘im fer th’ same reasonin’ I gave.  Seems like they used me “reasonin’” ta get a vote off a' Jain, b'cause if they really saw 'im as suspicious, they could’ve voted fer 'im any oth’r day before this.  An’ that, me hearties, stinks o’ a bandwagon.  More o’ a real one this time.  (I think it might be a good thing Jain turned out ta be a Gunner as well.  Th’ fact that th’ vote went ratherrr unopposed suggests that he ain’t a Mutineer.  But then again, maybe th’ Mutineers did try ta lynch one o’ their fellow scallywags, since Jain has anoth'r life ta live, an’ it’d cast suspicion off o’ th’ people votin’ fer ‘im.  Things jus' keep gettin' more complicated.)

 

Anyway, coincidentally, th’ player I thought of as suspicious yesterrrday but couldn’t figure out why was Riikiiiitiiiikiir.  Luckily, Mai an’ Luka point’d out some o’ th’ reasons he seem’d suspicious last cycle (though neither ended up votin' fer him).  An', along with me experiment, I be findin’ it suspicious that almost all th’ players that’ve voted fer Riiiiii so far have retracted thar vote.  So, I be votin' fer 'im this time 'round.

Also, considerin’ how th’ Mutineers have play’d so far, I’d say that by killin’ Mai, they be tryin’ ta set up Jene as well.  I ain’t sure ‘bout it, but it seems a little too convenient tha’ th’ Mutineers apparently went from tryin’ ta set Mai up ta killin’ ‘im altogeth’r.

 

I really hope this works, because if Wyrm is right and it’s 6 against 4 right now, one more mislynch will cost us the game.  That said, I personally think it’s more likely that it’s 7 against 3, but that might just be me being optimistic.

[Wyrmhero]

I really hope this works, because if Wyrm is right and it’s 6 against 4 right now, one more mislynch will cost us the game.  That said, I personally think it’s more likely that it’s 7 against 3, but that might just be me being optimistic.

 

To be more precise, it somewhat depends on the number of Gunners on either side (or rather, the number of Gunners would be determined by the Mutineer number, I think). If they have no Gunners, then I expect there will be four Mutineers to the 11 loyal players, of which two or three would be Gunners. If they have a Gunner, then I expect it's three Mutineers to 12 loyal players, of whom two, three or four would be loyal Gunners.

 

Thinking about it though, I doubt it would be four Mutineers and a Gunner. That gives them too many lives. My base estimate of four was just because that is the number I would expect for this game, but that was without factoring in the extra life roles. So as such, I think my previous estimate of four was probably a little too pessimistic, and I am happy to agree that there are more likely to be three (with one of them being a Gunner to balance it out).

Edited July 11, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'm going to vote for Matim, for the reasons Wyrm has stated above. Also, I won't get home today  until 8:30/9:00. So I don't think I'll be able to change my vote if new Information comes up.

[Wyrmhero]

I'm going to vote for Matim, for the reasons Wyrm has stated above. Also, I won't get home today  until 8:30/9:00. So I don't think I'll be able to change my vote if new Information comes up.

 

I'd appreciate it if people stated the reasons they voted for people rather than just saying 'this person said stuff that made sense'. Which parts do you agree with? What do you think about the other stuff? I accept that you may not be able to change your vote now, but if you survive this cycle it'd be nice to have a clarification tomorrow. More information is good, and I've not seen you give out that much recently.