Quick Fix Game 2: Crushthroat's Beginnings

[A Joe in the Bush]

On Real quick. Voting for Wyrm.

[luckat]

First off, I’m sorry for my inactivity. I’m back home now, so I should start being more active now. I once again haven’t had much time to look at stuff, and I definitely don’t have time for RP right now. Here’s an updated list of votes, as far as I can tell (I really hope I didn’t make any mistakes):

Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo
Kal FangShi (3): Riingar, New One, Kai
Wyrm (2): Jene, Jeno
Ratel (1): Jain
Mai (1): Ratel
Luka (1): Jatae
New One (?): Matim?
Kai (?): Matim? (I didn’t see a retraction for New One, but I could have missed it)

It looks like there is a tie between Jene and Kal FangShi. That means that there is a tie between Jene and Kal FS. So whoever has a grappling hook can decide the vote. If a Mutineer has it then I think that gives too much power to them, and if a regular has it then I'm not sure I really trust their judgement. However, I don’t really like being in the position of being the tie-breaker. If I cast a vote for Wyrm, then that makes it a three-way tie, which the grappling hook cannot break. (I really hope I'm not making a big mistake.)

[Herowannabe]

Well Jene, that's good enough for me. Despite being the one to put you in that position I'm convinced- at least enough to not lynch you today. I've never seen a baddy voice suspicions right before he was about to be revealed as a traitor. And I know some disagree with me but I still don't think Wyrm is a traitor. His arguments and strategies have been too solidly anti-mutineer for me to ignore. So I could vote for someone random and leave things to chance or I could vote to protect two of the people I think are innocent. Sorry KalFS. Edited July 8, 2014 by Herowannabe

[Metacognition]

You guys have got to be kidding me! How am I suppose to do a write up on time with you guys switching votes at the last second?  

 

Just messing with you guys, take the time and such that you need. 
 

The Cycle is over now and I'll get the write up done shortly. 

[Metacognition]

Week 3- Idle Hands

If there is anything worse than a pirate crew that doesn’t trust each other, it’s a pirate crew that doesn’t trust each other and don’t have anything to do with their time! That was the position that the Crew of the AonTeo found themselves in. There was no wind in the Doldrums and without wind, there was no reason to work the sails. There was no reason to be on the lookout for hazards like reefs and shoals. There wasn’t much reason to do anything as they were cast adrift.

Kiin tried to keep them occupied as much as possible, but there were only so many times you could tell them to scrub the deck. By the end of the first day, there were already signs of restlessness so Kiin did the only thing left to him; he opened up cask after cask of alcohol and left them to it. The alcohol would curb some of the cabin fever affecting the Crew, but he had no illusions that, if they didn’t get out of the Doldrums soon, things were likely to get worse before they got better.

The alcohol did it’s trick incredibly well. During the first night, the crew threw an impromptu party. They sang, they danced, they almost seemed to forget that some of their number were out to kill them even! Of course, it seemed like the Mutineers had mostly forgotten that they were trying to overthrow the Captain’s reign as well… mostly.
 

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Ratel woke up the next day in the crow’s nest with a splitting headache. He didn’t remember climbing up there last night, but he must have considering he still had all of his possessions. Even good and loyal pirates would’ve at least stolen his dagger. How he managed to get up there was of minor concern to him at the moment. All he wanted right now was to get back down and get some hair of the dog that bit him.

When he finally reached the deck, he found most of the Crew passed out. It seemed he wouldn’t be the only one with a headache today.

He made his way to the galley where, surprisingly, Riitiidiikiir was actually up and cooking. A little stew would probably help his head as well, Ratel decided and he made his way across the galley to Riitiidiikiir.

“If ye be cookin’, I be eatin’!” Ratel said with a smile. “I must’ve been loaded to the gunwalls last night, as I can’t remember a thing! How ‘bout yerself, Tie-dye?”

Riitiidiikiir smiled as he looked up from his stew. But when his eyes reached Ratel’s face, his smile faded and he went bleach white. Stew forgotten, he screamed in surprise and backed as far away from Ratel as possible.

Ratel winced. “Didn’ I just say that I had far too much ta drink an’ here ye be screamin’? What’s wrong with ye anyways?”

Riitiidiikiir couldn’t speak. He raised a shaky finger and pointed to Ratel’s cheek.

Ratel, starting to get worried, searched the nearby area for a mirror. The closest thing he found was a pot that was polished to a shine. He held it up and did his best to inspect himself. While the reflection wasn’t very clear, it was good enough to confirm why Riitiidiikiir was so scared: Ratel had been marked with the Black Spot.
 

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It wasn’t long before the entire Crew knew about Ratel. Evidently, things hadn’t been as cheery the night before as everyone thought it was and soon enough, the Crew was back to glaring at each other with the added bonus of a hangover this time.

Luckily, everyone felt the need to nurse their skulls before they tried to figure this situation out.
 

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The next day, the Crew gathered around the mast. Ratel was among them, but everyone shied so far away from him that he stayed near the back.

Since they were still in the Doldrums, the Crew spent the entire day arguing about who obviously had it out for Ratel. There were literal fistfights multiple times throughout the day and even a few drawn weapons, though no additional blood was shed.

Eventually, they came back around to three people; Jene, Wrym and Kal FangShi. The Crew seemed fairly divided about it. So, like the democracy that pirating is, they held a vote.
“All of ye who think it was Jene, tha scondrel be to strong fer ‘is own good, raise ye hand!”

And the Crew voted.

“Any of ye who think it’s that bloody liar, Wyrm, raise ye hand!”

And the Crew voted.

“Finally, all of ye who think it was that foreigner, Kal FangShi, raise yer hand!”

And the Crew voted… except for one person, who when they went to raise their hand, they found their sleeve caught on a grappling hook. They struggled to free themselves, but by the time they were capable of ridding themselves of the hook, the Crew had decided that this was useless and had wandered away. Already there were a few that were back to the drink.  

“No, wait!” The person called, but the Crew was already gone….
 

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It had been 2 days since he’d been marked and Ratel was jumping at shadows. He hadn’t slept since he had found himself marked.

He’d been marked for death and he knew they weren’t going to just leave him be. He spent most of his time up in the crows nest now. At least from up here, he could probably see anyone coming.

As the night wore on, he found himself nodding off to sleep for about the hundredth time. His nerves were shot and his body needed a rest, but he just knew that the second he fell asleep was when they would come for him.

He was partially right. As he had been dozing, someone had climbed up the rigging and they were now just underneath the crows nest. With a strong thrust, they shoved their blade up through the floor and through Ratel’s body. Then, as silently as they came, they climbed back down the mast, but not before feeling a breeze start blowing through their hair. It seemed that the Crew was finally out of the Doldrums.

...Too bad they weren’t out of danger.
 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Week 2 has ended and you have 24 hours before the end of Week 3!

No one was lynched!
Ratel turned out to have chosen the wrong profession. While he was a loyal Powder Monkey, he probably should’ve stuck to mining.

Votes
Jene- ll (Mai, Wyrm)
Kal FangShi- lll (Kai, Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo)
Wyrm- lll (Jene, Jeno, Luka)
Luka- l (Jatae)
Ratel- l (Jain)
Mai- l (Ratel)
Kai- l (Matim)
No Votes- (Kal FangShi)

Edited June 15, 2016 by Alvron

[Kasimir]

"It's always the people you like, 'Rii," Kai confided. Narii squeaked persistently until he crumbled some hardtack for the little furret. He'd been assigned on the same watch as Ratel before, and he'd kind of missed the fact that Ratel never saw the need to chatter at him. And he'd never seen 'Rii or at least if he had, he'd been kind enough to pretend he hadn't. That was always a selling point for a person, in Kai's eyes.

Two friends down, and it seemed that there would be more to come. More work, too. A ship was always a busy place, and with Paan, Aonar and Ratel down, the rest of them would be working harder and harder to make up for it.

Will put up some proper analysis in a bit. There's definitely way too many last minute shenanigans with the votes.

Edit: We do have one piece of information now. The Almighty GM has gotten back to me; I was the one hit by the grappling hook. While I grant that some (Matim in particular) are rather uncertain of my loyalties, unless Matim would like to own up to having the grappling hook, I'm taking that to indicate that the grappling hook went into Mutineer hands last cycle.

 

GM: Just to be certain--a lynch plus the Mutineer kill could take down a Gunner within a single cycle?

Edited July 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Metacognition]

GM: Just to be certain--a lynch plus the Mutineer kill could take down a Gunner within a single cycle?

 

Of course. That would be two hits, which is all the more that a Gunner could take. Just because both hits happen during the same cycle doesn't change the fact that they were technically targeted twice. 

[Newan]

Wow.  

 

Well, first of all, it appears that whoever got the grappling hook was either specifically trying to thwart whatever Kai (the player trusted by most) did, or they were trying to save Kal FangShi.  The fact that two people posted in the last hour and a grappling hook was fired to save him makes me think that they really don't want him to die.

 

Second, I think Kai's strategy is great.  Everyone who thinks he is advocating a bandwagon, just think about what would have happened if Kal FangShi only had two votes on him instead of four.  The last-minuters would have had their way with us.  

 

Personally, I think that they evidence against Wyrm is flimsy at best, and that Jeno has a lot to answer for.  

 

Matim: hmm I was thinking of calling it the Goodbad Scale, but Chart of Evilness has a nice ring to it.  Believe it or not, I actually trust you more now.  I certainly don't agree with your accusation of Kai, but I think it took more guts than the average mutineer has.  

 

Hreo: Your post where you switched from voting to Jene to Kal FangShi raised you to Valiant in my eyes.  It just made so much sense.  

 

I expect to see lots of interesting stuff in this cycle that will probably shift my opinions about.  I really want to see Jeno's defense.  Also, Jatae and Mai have done nothing suspicious at all, but they haven't gone very far out on the line either.  I really don't have any reason to distrust or trust them.  

This could definitely change before the end of this cycle, but here is the Third Chart of Evilness:

Edit: Just so you guys know, I'm not putting RP in my first post of this cycle because I am sleepy.  Sorry to deviate from a pattern.  

Edited July 8, 2014 by New One

[Wyrmhero]

I am rather disappointed that I had three votes placed onto me due to a combination of Jene's really shallow 'evidence', Jeno's vote without any evidence, and Luka's vote for tie-making. Interesting to note that most people who have voted for me each day have done so with no real reason for voting for me specifically. It's always worrying going to sleep a quarter of a cycle before it's over, since you have no idea what you'll wake up to. I am grateful for Hreo's extra vote saving me from an accidental lynch by grappling hook .

 

So Kai was hit by a grappling hook and because of that, Kal survived the night. There are three possibilities here:

1. Kal is loyal and saved himself with a grappling hook that he bought. I believe this to be very unlikely, since he didn't post today and hasn't voted. If he was going to save himself, I think he would take the time to make a short post just for the coin and the possibility of tipping a vote over on someone else.
2. Another loyal crewman saved Kal because they believed he was innocent. This is also unlikely, considering most people's opinion towards him. People may not have voted for him, but I can't recall anyone saying that they were pretty sure that he was loyal.
3. Kal is a Mutineer and he was saved by one of his own. This is the most likely of these three scenarios, since it doesn't really give away any information that we wouldn't have gotten anyway. By saving him, they get an extra vote for another day and we waste a lynch.
4. Kal is loyal and a Mutineer saved him. This gives us incorrect information and makes us look closely at him instead of someone else. While possible, I would say it unlikely. The Mutineers may be rather independent and therefore perhaps more likely to go for interesting plans, at the same time I doubt that they would deny us an innocent lynch like that. It's not as if they really needed to use the hook anyway.

So since scenario three looks most likely, I'm very suspicious. However, before I vote for Kal nearer the end of the day, I would like to know why Luka and Jeno voted for me without giving a real reason.

 

EDIT: From what I recall from QF2, Luka isn't on anymore today while I'm on, so I will instead vote for Jeno to get a response.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir]

King: Tsk, Spanish Inquisition much?
 
Anyway, I've been trying to do some analysis of the voting shenanigans. Like most, I agree it looks like someone was trying to protect Kal, but:

Case 1: [1024 hrs > x > 1200 hrs]
Jene (2): Mai, Wyrm
KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai
Wyrm (1): Jene

Result of grappling hook: Kal gets protected. No lynch.

Case 2: [1200 hours]
Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo
KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai
Wyrm (1): Jene

Result of grappling hook: Jene gets lynched. Kal is protected.

Case 3: [1215 hrs]
Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo
KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai
Wyrm (2): Jene, Jeno

Result of grappling hook: Jene gets lynched. Kal is protected.

Case 4: [1227 hrs]
Jene (3): Mai, Wyrm, Hreo
KalFS (3): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai
Wyrm (3): Jene, Jeno, Luka

Result of grappling hook: no lynch. Kal is protected.

Case 5: [1235 hrs]
Jene (2) Mai, Wyrm
KalFS (4): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir, Kai, Hreo
Wyrm (3): Jene, Jeno, Luka

Result of grappling hook: no lynch. Kal is protected.

1241 hrs: cycle closed by Meta.

-
 
Assumptions/Inferences:
 
Assumption 1.: I was targeted between 1024hrs and 1241 hours.
I think this is about right. It's possible I could've been hit earlier, but before 1024hrs, my vote was on Jeno. Regardless of whether Jeno is a Mutineer, I was the single standing vote on Jeno. He was never in any danger, and so my assumption is that I was targeted by the Grappler (I was going to refer to that Mutineer by the other half of the term, but I think we can see why that is unwise ) within that time window, after I shifted my vote to Kal.
 
Corollaries:
1a. These are the people who were online in the window for the hook to be utilised:
Mai, myself, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo, Luka, Jene, Jeno, Jatae
 
1b. These are the people who might have been online; I am uncertain because the timestamp is unclear (it doesn't matter--they have to be logged in to send an action PM, so) :
Jain, Matim, Riingar
 
1c. These are the people who couldn't have done it:
Wyrm, Aonar, Ratel.
 
At this point, I want to note that I'm not going to refer to this as being indicative of guilt or innocence. I am however, looking for suspects for the Grappler (temporarily Mutineer #3 on my charts.) It therefore ignores actions by other Mutineers as sorting that will take time.
 
Assumption 2.: No one who voted for Kal was the Grappler. It's an assumption I'd like to revisit, because I'm not sure it's entirely legitimate, but for now: it seems a waste of a grappling hook, frankly, to vote for Kal and then nullify the effect of your vote. And with all the last minute shenanigans going on, it seems to me that the Grappler would have no way of knowing that a vote wouldn't go on Kal...unless the only other people involved at that point in time were also Mutineers.
 
Corollaries:
2a. Of the contents of the set of suspect/potential Grapplers:
Mai, myself, Riitiidiikiir, Hreo, Luka, Jene, Jeno, Jatae.
 
Assumption 3.: While it looks as though the Grappler was trying to save Kal, it looks to me as though there is a second possibility: that the Grappler was trying to get Jene lynched. If we look at Case Two and Three, then between 1200hrs and 1215hrs, the Grappler could have acted to try and get Jene lynched (or have gone for a more general mislynch with Jene the candidate at that time.) (This possibility may overlap with that of trying to protect Kal, but I don't immediately want to make that assumption in order to be conservative of inference.) The problem: the Grappler would've had to go offline after that. If they'd seen that Jene wasn't going to get lynched as Luka had now placed a vote on Wyrm, then it seems to be that the Grappler should've also been able to see Hreo's placing the vote on Kal and to change accordingly (allowing a lynch to go through--the assumption is the Grappler wants a mislynch) in the six minute gap between Hreo and Meta closing the cycle.
 
Corollaries:
3a. Kal is most likely suspicious: the Grappler did not want a lynch on Kal to go through, or:
3b. The Grappler tried to have Jene lynched and then went offline (?) [This scenario would mean that Hreo, Luka, and myself would not be the Grappler.]
 
-
 
This is mostly what I can get out of the scenario at the moment. I haven't yet taken a closer look at the actions/reasons/motivations of everyone else who started swapping their votes or placing their votes last minute. I'll do so in a short while.
 
Here are two possibilities I'm considering:
1. Kal is being set up.
 
It's a possibility worth considering, to be sure, and my response to it is similar to King's: well...yeah, but they could've had a Kal mislynch go through. Extra scrutiny would go on Hreo, for that last minute change, on myself, for not being much better at late voting. Now, it is possible that this happened: the Grappler tried to get Jene lynched and went offline. They had no way of knowing that more votes would stack onto Kal and that they could get someone else lynched. As a result, no new orders were sent in and Kal looks really dodgy.
 
2. Mai is being set up.
 
This is something I also find worth considering. The strongest link I find between Aonar and Ratel, besides them being experienced players, is that they both, at some point, voted for Mai. It's not impossible that the Mutineers might be trying something like what happened with lev last game, given it worked so well. (Mai could really be a Mutineer, but at this point, I am more inclined to go with the "is set up" rather than "was being saved" because frankly, Aonar's vote was just for information, and Ratel's vote was on a hunch no one else was following. There is a third possibility: this is being done so we'd consider it and then drop Mai on the suspicion list when Mai is actually highly suspicious. I'm currently agnostic to this possibility for now and will further consider it.)
 
Which ties in with something else: in the last minute muddle, Jene expressed suspicions of Wyrm and Mai. So one, there's a connection between Jene's expressing his suspicions of Mai and the ongoing attempt to set Mai up [Assumption, as noted] and the people who threw votes on Wyrm out of left field.
 
So this is the picture of suspicion I end up with, if I work with the assumption Mai is being set up: Jene, Jeno, and Luka. In particular, three of the people involved in dodgy vote activity late on.
 
So as I do want an answer: Jene, why are you suspicious of Wyrm and Mai? I'd like an answer from Jene and Luka as well, without my having to light each of their names in red in turn.
 
형.아연.

[Wyrmhero]

There are four possibilities! (I'll come in again)

 

I think that the last Jene should've been Jeno there, Kai. Darn these similar names

 

As a request to people online near the end of the cycle, can someone who is online when Luka is press her for an answer, since I won't be there to ask myself?

 

Edit: Have an upvote for that sheer wall of text and its highly structured nature

Edited July 8, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir]

...
>>

I'm not reformatting that wall of text again. Sorry.

Edit: Newan, is that dot the black spot?

Edit 2: In the interests of continuing to be (encouraging? following up on Riingar's) forthcoming(-ness?), I will admit my secondary use-item action was also blocked by the grappling hook. I'd bid for and obtained the loaded dice and was planning on gambling last cycle.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Renegade]

Alright, back to pirate-speak!

 

Well, blimey!  This be an interestin’ situation we’ve got ourselves in herrre.  I be a lit'l surprised that not one of us has danc’d the hempen jig yet.  Two weeks, an’ we haven’t got a single pirate lynched.  But we need not hang th’ jib, as I believe tha’ it has giv’n us some valuable info.  An’ therefer, I be getting’ meself another list o’ suspicions based on th’ week’s evidence.

 

One o’ me main suspects now be Kal FengShi.  I never really intended ta get him lynched yesterday, I just wanted ta give him a chance to respond to me suspicions.  But he still ain’t respondin', an' I'd like to get 'im to at least respond 'fore changin' me vote.  An’ of course, there be th’ evidence o’ last week’s lynch vote craziness (an’ also with the week beforrre that, but I be less certain ’bout what happened then).  Giv’n the info we have so far, I’d say Kal be our best bet now.  Obviously, thar be no guarantee of it, but, well, thar be no guarantee o’ anythin’ in this game anyways.

 

I feel tha’ Jain an’ Matim be especially unpredictable in me eyes.  Although, frankly, while I don’ exactly agree with th’ reasonin’ behind some o’ thar votes, I don’ think it really contributes to that suspiciousness.  So, they ain't too high up on me suspicion scale (but still be a bit suspicious).

 

Jeno an’ Luka I’ve recently felt morrrre suspicious about, after they team’d up ‘gainst Wyrm fer no apparent reason (maybe because Jene said that he be one o’ his suspicions, but he didn't explain that either).  A few people have voic’d suspicions ‘bout Wyrm, an’ I be willin’ ta agree with them, if they say why he be suspicious, ratherrr than jus’ sayin’ tha’ he be suspicious.  Honestly, sayin’ who ye suspcect wit’out sayin’ why ain’t helpin’ us all that much.  (Kai an’ Wyrm have already post’d ‘bout this, but I be reiteratin' it.)

 

Jene… I be havin’ no idea what ta make o’ him.  He could go either way.  I thought he be really suspicious last cycle, an’ then he did voice his suspicions ’bout Wyrm an’ Mai.  If Kai be right with th’ Mai conspiracy thing, then I agree that Jene might be a good candidate fer bein' a Mutineer, as he be tryin’ ta shed further suspicion Mai’s way.  But I don’ think we have enough info to make such a decision 'bout this yet.  But I still be watchin' Jene closely.

 

An’ that be it, I believe.  I ain’t sayin’ that I’m not suspicious of th’ other players – I be watchin’ everyone – but these be th’ players that be particularly notable, fer me.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Renegade

[Mailliw73]

So it seems that Honor is being set up, well, when you put it that way, It doesn't sound so bad.

typisierte Zink

I still think that Jeneis the most suspicious. I can't get over him. But Kal FS also seems pretty suspicious now, for most of the reasons stated by others. I can't do an analysis near as well as Kas did, but I say anyone who posted a vote near the end with no reason at all is highly suspicious. That'd be Jeno and Luka in my mind. Those four mentioned above are the ones who top my suspicion list.

[Theorymaker]

So I was reading all the posts and some said Kal FengShi is most likely a Mutineer. So someone to lynch I thought. Then Kai went into a logic puzzle more confusing than the one from The Princess Bride. I just thought about it and decided I was to confused to vote for Kal. If it turns out people want him dead, and if we need a large margin to lynch him I'll vote for him but not yet. Also we need some lynchs to work! So far all of them have failed one way or another.

 

Kai: I was bidding for a Buckler (which I failed in getting) so I couldn't have grappled. Also remind me not to vote for you again. While I did learn some information (about secret messages and such), a lot of words came with it (no offense, I just don't like reading really long posts).

 

Riiiii: Thanks for moving me up on the Chart of Evilness. People on the left tend to be lynched and people on the right tend to be killed by the Mutineers so being in the middle is nice.

 

Lastly, I'm voting for Jene, and yes I probably have a better reason than the fact his name is underlined on the Chart. He was pretty much voting for Wyrm for no reason yesterday. Also voting with Kai means he stops yelling at me, right? Wrong, no one is above suspicion, except the Radiant.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Theorymaker

[luckat]

Overall, most of the stuff here has more to do with the situation yesterday than the current one. So it isn’t necessarily the best for figuring out who is currently suspicious. It is just an explanation for how I voted yesterday in hopes that it will ease some of the suspicion currently on me. If you don’t care about reading a convoluted summary of my thoughts yesterday, you can skip to the last paragraph.


I’ll explain my actions as best as I can now. I gave a rushed explanation when I voted, but I’ll try to expand it more now. Keep in mind that any logic or analysis that I used yesterday is likely to flawed since I was pressed for time and I had been out of town, so wasn’t in the best mindset for the game.

When I looked over the posts yesterday, I noticed three people who had suspicion cast on them: Jene, Kal FangShi, and Wyrm. I didn’t have time to analyze the reasons behind the suspicion, and I didn’t realize how flimsy the one for Wyrm was. (How he was apparently using PMs doesn’t strike me as how the Mutineers would be using them this game. His name was brought up by more than just Jene, but the others apparently were just gut feelings or unexplained.) As it was, I didn’t see any reason to suspect any of those three over the others.

What I did see was a two-way tie between Jene and Kal, with Wyrm trailing one behind them. It seemed late enough in the cycle that I didn’t think anyone else would vote after me (or that whoever had the grappling hook would be likely to change their action), especially since the people who were on at the time seemed pretty solid in their votes. I figured that if I left it at a two-way tie, then the grappling hook would be used by a Mutineer to save one of their own and leave the other person in the tie to be lynched.

At that point, these were my general thoughts from what I remember. I obviously didn't have time to write them down like this yesterday. (I’m probably going to put scenarios I found less likely first and progress to the ones I found more likely. If that seems unintuitive, sorry):

The grappling hook was either in the hands of someone loyal or a Mutineer. Since it can only be used the day it is received, it would almost certainly be put into use.

1. If someone loyal had it then they would either put it on someone they considered suspicious in hopes of blocking the Mutineer kill or protect whichever of the two people in the tie seemed less suspicious to them.

1a. If they were trying to block the Mutineer, then that would have no effect on the results.

1b. If they tried to protect whichever seemed less suspicious, then I didn’t see any reason to trust that they were right.

2. If a Mutineer had the grappling hook, then zero, one, or two people in the tie were Mutineers (Wyrm wasn’t part of the tie yet).

2a. If both Jene and Kal were Mutineers, then the Mutineer with the grappling hook would do nothing to the tie if the votes stood as they were.

2b. If both Jene and Kal were innocent, then the Mutineer would use the grappling hook to protect one of them, getting one of them lynched and casting extra suspicion on the other.

2c. If one was a Mutineer and the other was innocent, then the Mutineer would probably use the grappling hook to protect the Mutineer and cause a lynch or protect from a last-minute vote change. This would cast suspicion on whichever of the two was a Mutineer, but was probably safer than just throwing the grappling hook out at random.

Based on this, I thought that it was most likely that the grappling hook would be used to protect either Jene or Kal, which would leave the other, likely innocent, one to be lynched. I say a few options for myself.

1. Avoid the issue and vote for someone random to get the coin.

1a. This seemed like a bad idea because it would make it likely that the innocent one of Jene or Kal would be lynched. It gave complete control to whoever had the grappling hook, which I thought might be a Mutineer.

2. Vote for either Jene or Kal. Be the deciding vote in a tie when I didn’t have any reason to suspect one over the other.

2a. If I chose correctly, then the grappling hook would make the result a tie. This would save the loyal player, but would not make a lynch on the Mutineer go through. However, I didn’t much like this option because it was just as likely that I would choose incorrectly.

2b. If I chose incorrectly, then I would only be playing into the Mutineers’ hands by making a lynch for an innocent go through.

3. Vote for Wyrm to make the tie unbreakable unless someone voted after me.

3a. I thought that Wyrm was suspicious, mostly because I had seen that others did, so I figured a vote for Wyrm would at least be better than a random one. (I’m sorry about that. Now that I’ve examined the suspicions more carefully, I think that those suspicions are unfounded.)

3b. If I voted for Wyrm, I wouldn’t have to pick one person as more suspicious to break the tie and risk getting an innocent lynched.

3c. Voting for Wyrm was an opportunity to take control from whoever had the grappling hook. It made a three-way tie, so if the grappling hook was used on either Jene or Kal, we would know who was being protected without having to lose the other one. The tie could only be broken by someone voting even later than I did.

Based on all of this, I decided that voting for Wyrm was the best of my three options. It took control of the vote from whoever had the grappling hook, it potentially protected an innocent, and it kept votes on the people who seemed the most suspicious.

Of course, my reasoning falls apart with Hreo’s last-minute vote change. I didn’t see it in time to change anything. If he had posted ten minutes earlier, I would have had a different situation to analyze and I probably would have acted differently.

In general, I’m not a big fan of last-minute vote changes, especially ones that could change the outcome significantly. I tend to consider it suspicious. I’ve only been voting last-minute this game because of real life stuff (and my votes have been for someone without any votes and to defend against grappling hook shenanigans, respectively, not to cause a sudden lynch), and I won’t anymore if I can help it. Since Hreo changed his vote to the person who was protected by the grappling hook, however, I don’t suspect him for it (especially since the Mutineers can’t coordinate much: if he and Kal were both Mutineers, then he would have had to have known who had the grappling hook and who it would be used on to cast the vote he did).
 
I realize that how I voted seems suspicious, and I realized yesterday that, depending on how the vote turned out, what I did could seem suspicious, especially since forcing ties and voting last-minute usually seems suspicious. However, It was what I considered the best option at the time. I would like to add that if I was a Mutineer, then I would not have forced a tie when I could just as easily have forced a mislynch without casting suspicion on myself.


Given how the grappling hook went, I now see the most reason to suspect Kal FangShi, so I’m voting for him now. It’s not a sure thing that he was being protected by it, but it seems probable.

[Newan]

Just so you guys know, the underline means Jene has survived an attack, and the dot means Kai has been grappled. I will add more dots if he is grappled more, and more underlines if Jene regenerates again.

[Peng the Just]

So as I do want an answer: Jene, why are you suspicious of Wyrm and Mai?

 I was suspisous of Wyrm for the reason I already expressed, however I have since gone over the whole thread, made a spreadsheet, and looked at everyone's voting patterns. After this, Wyrm actually looks more innocent than most.

 

Why I am suspisious of Mai:

 He has voted for me again and again, early in the cycle, all three cycles so far.

1) This does not match his behavior for previous games where he was innocent. He tended to change his votes more in those games.

2) I am the only person who isn't dead that I know is innocent, so he is the only person I know has voted for an innocent all three cycles.

3) voting early in the cycle, and never changing your vote when new evidence arises makes it seem like he doesn't care about new evidence, in other words, he already knows who is on which side.

 

this is the most convincing evidence I've had for anybody so far, so I will be casting my vote for Mai.

 

Edit: after looking at mai's online times, it appears he is only online near the start of the cycle. This could mean he is innocent and just really convinced of my guilt

Edited July 8, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Herowannabe]

Hreo enjoyed the mist from the waves across his face. You had to take time to enjoy the simple things in life, especially with all the madness and suspicions and schemings and backstabbings taking place aboard the AonTao. Also when your crew mates have lashed you to the ship's figurehead and left you hanging there for hours and hours, ignoring your calls for help. Hreo had long since lost his voice and given up yelling. Eventually someone would come untie him. Probably.

"Rough spot we found ourselves in, eh buddy?" Hreo croaked to his only companion, a stuffed panda that had been left dangling in front of him. The fuzzy toy had a big gash across its face where it had been stabbed by a knife, and the rope that held it was tied in a noose around its neck.

It was creepy.

Don't have a lot of time to post today. This is all I've had time to write after three attempts, and my lunch break is technically already over. :\ Maybe I'll be able to post more tonight.

As for the last minute change last night- sorry about that. I didn't mean it to be a last-minute thing, I just wanted to get everything done before I went to bed. I still think that Jene and Wyrm are innocent, and the grappling hook yesterday seems to reinforce that. However, I can't say the same thing for KalFS.

Edit: spelling

Edited July 8, 2014 by Herowannabe

[Mailliw73]

 I was suspisous of Wyrm for the reason I already expressed, however I have since gone over the whole thread, made a spreadsheet, and looked at everyone's voting patterns. After this, Wyrm actually looks more innocent than most.

 

Why I am suspisious of Mai:

 He has voted for me again and again, early in the cycle, all three cycles so far.

1) This does not match his behavior for previous games where he was innocent. He tended to change his votes more in those games.

2) I am the only person who isn't dead that I know is innocent, so he is the only person I know has voted for an innocent all three cycles.

3) voting early in the cycle, and never changing your vote when new evidence arises makes it seem like he doesn't care about new evidence, in other words, he already knows who is on which side.

 

this is the most convincing evidence I've had for anybody so far, so I will be casting my vote for Mai.

 

Edit: after looking at mai's online times, it appears he is only online near the start of the cycle. This could mean he is innocent and just really convinced of my guilt

About your edit, that is true. But also, I can't believe that all three of the Gunners are Loyal and I can't convince myself that Kas is a Mutineer so you're the only other choice. I haven't voted the same person more than twice in a row in previous games because I have been persuaded not to or been part of a plan to lynch someone else. If you look at Game 6, for example, I voted Dellan the first two cycles and he was the Forsaken. If i had kept on that, i might've killed him. I also voted for Bunnt because of how I felt about him and he was a DF as well. That might've just been my thief-taking abilities manifesting, though. In Game 1, the same thing happened with Mat, the Spiked Mistborn. So, I'm keeping my vote on you.

L或5

Edited July 8, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Wyrmhero]

About your edit, that is true. But also, I can't believe that all three of the Gunners are Loyal and I can't convince myself that Kas is a Mutineer so you're the only other choice.L或

 

All three Gunners? We've got one as good as confirmed in Jene, and one claimed by Kai, but who's the third? Or have I missed that somewhere?

Edited July 8, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Peng the Just]

 

L或5

Care to explain this?

[Theorymaker]

Decided to do a list. I do lists now, lists are cool. Also apologizing for white text accusations made in previous post.

 

Kal FangShi (5): Riitiidiikiir, Riingar, Luka, Hreo, Wyrm

Jeno (0): Wyrm

Jene (4): Kai, Mai, Matim, Kal

Mai (1): Jain

 

Edited list and the white words. Please tell me it's not going to be another tie again.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Wyrmhero]

Well, I'm about to head off, and still no reply from Jeno... Rather vexing, because I do really want him to explain what his reasoning was.

 

The question is whether or not I think moving my vote is a good idea, considering there's still about a quarter of the day left. All I could really do is bandwagon on Kal or Jene's vote, and that's not exactly a great thing to do when there's still lots of discussion to be had. I could not respond to any arguments that either of them put forth, but the same is true of whoever I vote for.

 

Jene at least has spoken about things, but Kal seems to be utterly absent. Lynching Kal seems to be the best of the three options (the third being leaving my vote where it is), but you guys seem to have that pretty much covered there... The question is whether I want to make it a certainty, getting past any Grappling Hook stuff but at the risk of lynching him accidentally if he suddenly makes a really good arguement for himself. So it comes down to whether I think Kal is suspicious enough to warrant a lynch.

 

Jene has taken back his accusation of me, and soothed my worries about him a little. The main bit of evidence, such as it is, against Kal is that he was 'saved' by the Grappling Hook the previous cycle. We've already debated whether or not it could be a trap or for another reason. I am of the opinion that it is not, so I will use my vote against Kal FangShi.

 

Night all.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Mailliw73]

All three Gunners? We've got one as good as confirmed in Jene, and one claimed by Kai, but who's the third? Or have I missed that somewhere?

You should be able to figure out the implication.

 

Care to explain this?

Not particularly, no. The person it is meant for should get it.