Quick Fix 65: More Deception: Murder in the Cosmere

[Archer]

Pancakes being ruled out because we didn't get Feast makes sense.

Personally, I think Acid is more of a severe damage type of thing, but I can see Araris choosing the more informative Accident option. If it's not Highstorm, I am confused why we got Noon though. Cult stuff feels like a nighttime activity. 

What do you think of Striker + Acid + Pendant, @TheAlpha929? 

[|TJ|]

This feels like some weird kind of Dumb Charades, with Araris acting it out and we're all trying to guess it. 

Hmmm, acid would come more under 'Severe Injury' no? 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

(Assumption 3): NAKEDNESS should not be taken literally. [=Nakedness is a constrained choice - there are only so many options there, e.g. Bizarre, Neat, Untidy, Elegant, Shabby. I take Nakedness to loosely refer to anything from 'some clothing damage' to 'actually naked.' The fact we didn't get Untidy inclines me towards ruling out any Method that involves a scuffle between the victim and the murderer.]

Why not? All other choices seem to cover any other possibility. Elegant and Shabby are opposites. Neat and Untidy are opposites. I can't think of any other options. If it's something like Regular Clothes, it'd be better covered under Neat. Will agree though clothing damage/only topless is possible. 

[Amanuensis]

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: Gotta love games with totally wild mechanics  ]

Edited to add:

Yeah, I wouldn't completely rule out the Aon cases:

 

We're not just looking to get into the mind of a killer, gentlespren. We're looking to get into the mind of one of the most Evil, most dangerous, bus-driving murderers in the whole of the splintered 17thShardsmere!

We're trying to understand how Araris Valerian himself thinks; may God have mercy on our souls.

Edited to add 2:

@Amanuensis Question for you. Suppose the Location question is taken to be Evidence indicative rather than merely Method indicative. Does this change your view of what's possible? 

I could see Glow Paste or Hidden Message potentially re-entering in such a case.

Hm. Mobile so bear with me, limited ways to format my thoughts.

If we imagine this like a literal crime scene, which I’m going with atm, this is what I’m thinking:

• Cause of Death: Accident
• Location: Hut/Shack
• Evidence Left Behind: Manmade
• Victim’s Clothes: Naked
• Time of Death: Noon
• In Progress: Religious Worship

Time of Death feels mostly irrelevant, other than maybe ruling out some edge cases that I can’t think of atm.

Cause of Death being accident suggests the MoM was used in an indirect way, like a Rube Goldberg trap being set up ahead of time for the victim.

Location is where the body was found—doesn’t make a ton of sense for the victim to have been moved after the fact, given an indirect death. Technically doesn’t need to have impacted the Murder Method, but it’s such a weird combination with Religious Worship… suggests to me a religious rivalry, like maybe the victim was a secret follower of Shu Dereth or a Jeskeri Cultist, and thus the murder was motivated by opposing zealotries?

Evidence Left Behind most likely related to the PoE the killer left, but also could mean whatever killed the victim was manmade (and not invested).

Naked is still weird to me but I don’t know if I agree with partial nudity. Feels like an important clue regardless.

How do you reckon Glow Paste or Hidden Message fit in exactly?

Edited March 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir]

23 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Why not? All other choices seem to cover any other possibility. Elegant and Shabby are opposites. Neat and Untidy are opposites. I can't think of any other options. If it's something like Regular Clothes, it'd be better covered under Neat. Will agree though clothing damage/only topless is possible. 

I'm mostly thinking about the clothing damage case - I wouldn't personally consider 'clothing got ripped to shreds but still not exactly naked' to be Untidy; I'd be closer to considering it Naked than Untidy. 

23 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Hmmm, acid would come more under 'Severe Injury' no? 

I don't disagree, but it's largely my main suspicion at the moment because of the Nakedness problem. We need a Method (I think) which can cause sufficient clothing damage. I might have been fine with Nightmaw, but Hut/Shack is very much not Wilderness. Fire or an accident with Aon Ehe is possible, as I've begun to question Glow Paste but when I think about it, Dusk or Night feels more intuitive to signal Glow Paste.

We could say the Nakedness is not Method-related but actually meant to suggest that the Evidence is an article of clothing, but that limits us to <Mastrell Sash (non-starter for me), Mistcoat, Grand Robe, Uniform.>

For Mistcoat, we're looking at JNV, with the closest to accident probably being...Buried Alive? But IDK, that feels more like Suffocation to me.

For Grand Robe, we're looking at Wiz, and I think that probably calls for Patji's Finger or Aon Ehe. But most of the dangerous wildlife that are drawn by Patji's Finger are nocturnal, from what I can recall, so I'm not sure Patji's Finger is a good match for noon. Aon Ehe is interesting because on further reflection, starting a fire at Noon is counterintuitive - you'd do so at Dusk/Night. So I lean against that.

There's Ragged Cloak with Bookwyrm, but basically all of Bookwyrm's methods are a poor fit to me.

For Silho, I feel like we'd maybe have to go with Betrayal, but that makes no sense of the Religious Worship issue. Lifeless Soldier could work, but the Hut/Shack is ??? Why not Battlefield since the Evidence on this hypothesis is Uniform? I will say I come back to Silho quite a bit because of the A'kar's Symbol, which is White Sand-related, and could see the solar/noon connection there for worship. But I'm having difficulty making sense of Silho's methods given the clues.

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

If it's not Highstorm, I am confused why we got Noon though. Cult stuff feels like a nighttime activity. 

Fair. I did think Noon could rule out (at least) some of the more Night type Evidence/Method options, like Shades (generally more lethal at Night), Nightmaws only go out at Night, Mug of Ale, but that's still eh.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Time of Death feels mostly irrelevant, other than maybe ruling out some edge cases that I can’t think of atm.

What I said above, mostly. I think it rules out some of the weirder Methods and Evidences but don't take it to be key.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Cause of Death being accident suggests the MoM was used in an indirect way, like a Rube Goldberg trap being set up ahead of time for the victim.

I think there's what Elan noted in the last run of the game, which was that the victimology itself was accidental (i.e. it wasn't meant to kill that particular victim.) It's worth noting that both runs had the Accident clue, with the first being Booby Trap and the second being Deathants. But that's a bit harder in this context if we're postulating the victim was deliberately selected.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Location is where the body was found—doesn’t make a ton of sense for the victim to have been moved after the fact, given an indirect death. Technically doesn’t need to have impacted the Murder Method, but it’s such a weird combination with Religious Worship… suggests to me a religious rivalry, like maybe the victim was a secret follower of Shu Dereth or a Jeskeri Cultist, and thus the murder was motivated by opposing zealotries?

Would agree it feels to me that the place the body was found is most likely the place the murder took place. I take the most powerful part of the combination and Method to indicate that anything related to Drowning and Patji Animals should be ruled out. I'd also exclude kill methods that tend to be associated with more urban settings, e.g. Feast-related poisons or Rioting (probably need a mob for this!)

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Evidence Left Behind most likely related to the PoE the killer left, but also could mean whatever killed the victim was manmade (and not invested).

Leaning PoE right now, but fair.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Naked is still weird to me but I don’t know if I agree with partial nudity. Feels like an important clue regardless.

True. It's where edge cases involving drowning or fire come to mind, but I still feel the problem with Drowning is there's literally an Ocean location card, why not use that? Fire is also still a very tough call at Noon, and easier for Araris to evoke it by selecting Dusk or Night.

19 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

How do you reckon Glow Paste or Hidden Message fit in exactly?

Mostly what I'd pick Hut/Shack for - Glow Paste largely for the Threnody associations, and the fact it's not very useful in a densely-populated area. But the fact it's Noon makes me reconsider Glow Paste.

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis - Oh right, and Hidden Message is more a Wild Mass Guess at this point, with my feeling that a Hut/Shack might be 'out of the way' enough on the list of location options to be associated potentially with a Hidden Message. I'm less convinced of this and more trying to explore what it might mean for location to point to Evidence instead, as up to this point I've taken it to be more indicative of Method.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

Eh, storm it. This seems like our best lead atm so might as well rule it out if wrong.

@Araris Valerian

I am making an Accusation! I accuse StrikerEZ of being the Assassin, and I think he used Acid to commit the murder and that the Key Evidence he left behind is the Shu-Korath Pendant.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

14 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

Edit 2: Does anyone know what the Grey patch is?

Confirm grey patch from Awakening.

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

What's Aon Reod? Am aware of Reo, but feels like a mix between the Reod and Reo?

Supposed to be Aon Reo.

[Mat]

15 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Don't have time to make conclusions based on that, unfortunately. I'll make a similar graphic for the ELB tomorrow morning, hopefully.

Only now I realized that I just forgot to include 'Noon' in my graphic >> But that's okay, as that one seems not super helpful to begin with, right? :P.

I can add it in, but it seems like most people didn't actually look at my chart (at least, no more than I did, which was minimal) so maybe I just won't bother

13 hours ago, Archer said:

I've also learned that Highstorms aren't exclusive to nighttime. So I'm liking that one because it fits well with Accident+Naked+(High)noon. 

I'd argue that's a stretch to include Naked as being linked with Highstorm, but I suppose it's more that the Highstorm rips the victim's clothing? But as I (and a few others) mentioned, acid/fire fits that better. Adding Noon is also a stretch but you do you  I like a good pun as much as anyone

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Don't feel the visualisations shared this cycle have been particularly helpful so I am experimenting with something on my end.

I am sad now  That was a quality ten minutes of effort well spent  

/jk

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Problem is that we're down to the contrastive issue again - if Tia was used to transport the victim into the ocean where the victim then drowned, do you consider this Supernatural or Suffocation? I think a fair case could be made for either.

I would say that Tia indicates Supernatural and Drowning indicates Suffocation. I don't think we should try to convolute a hypothetical death story too far, and should take most things at face value. I doubt Araris would want to put his faith in us finding the one random connection.

I personally would completely take Drowning out of consideration because Araris would have just put Suffocation, but I wouldn't take Tia off because I think Religious Worship has a potential connection with all the Aons. I would say that Tia could have been used to transport the victim to a remote Hut, where they died, but that's doing the convoluted thing I said not to do so idk

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

What do you think about Acid melting away the clothes? Contained in a Hut/Shack of some kind, spilled on the victim while practicing a religion in private?

That was my thought, yeah. I like your thought about the item being the religious thing but... we'll see I guess xD

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

It is significant that Araris chose Hut/Shack over 23 other options.

Do we know this is actually how this works? I didn't read the rules super carefully or anything but my general impression was that he RNGd between the four tiles and then picked out of the given options, same as the orange ones.

[Kasimir]

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I am sad now  That was a quality ten minutes of effort well spent  

Sorry man, just felt like info overload rather than highlighting things that jumped out at me  

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I would say that Tia indicates Supernatural and Drowning indicates Suffocation. I don't think we should try to convolute a hypothetical death story too far, and should take most things at face value. I doubt Araris would want to put his faith in us finding the one random connection.

Yes and no - the link I provided shows he has thought that way before and part of the FS job is to try to give you a plausible narrative to make sense of the Method and Evidence, but I'd still argue that the Aons are probably not straightforwardly the best answer in this scenario. So I don't really disagree.

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I personally would completely take Drowning out of consideration because Araris would have just put Suffocation, but I wouldn't take Tia off because I think Religious Worship has a potential connection with all the Aons. I would say that Tia could have been used to transport the victim to a remote Hut, where they died, but that's doing the convoluted thing I said not to do so idk

See?

Also, because there's just a nice Sea/Ocean tile that Araris could have used.

22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do we know this is actually how this works? I didn't read the rules super carefully or anything but my general impression was that he RNGd between the four tiles and then picked out of the given options, same as the orange ones.

Yes, because I've played this game IRL donkey years ago and this is an adaptation of the game

And as I've indicated earlier, this is constant in this game:

Quote

●        The “Cause of Death” tile is used in every game.

●        The Oracle chooses 1 of the 4 “Location” tiles.

●        Lastly, the Oracle randomly selects 4 the “Scene” tiles  (Note: If the randomizer selects an “Event” tile, it is ignored and a new Scene tile is selected).

From the rule post, emphasis mine. The Oracle chooses the Location tiles, and the Scene tiles are randomly selected. In other words, Location is extremely important (in my view) because it is a deliberate choice on the part of the FS and therefore contains information  

Edited March 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

I found the graphics useful, for what it’s worth, but I think the most efficient method is looking at each player’s options for MoM and PoE and seeing which combination fits best with the clues

Edited March 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir]

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Eh, storm it. This seems like our best lead atm so might as well rule it out if wrong.

@Araris Valerian

I am making an Accusation! I accuse StrikerEZ of being the Assassin, and I think he used Acid to commit the murder and that the Key Evidence he left behind is the Shu-Korath Pendant.

If this is right, someone gotta play the Digivolution song.

[Amanuensis]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If this is right, someone gotta play the Digivolution song.

Tbh I doubt it’s right but if so I vote for a QF65b—

Wait this has ‘a’ in the title. Was that already planned? Nice

[Mat]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

From the rule post, emphasis mine. The Oracle chooses the Location tiles, and the Scene tiles are randomly selected. In other words, Location is extremely important (in my view) because it is a deliberate choice on the part of the FS and therefore contains information  

Ah, okay. But Hut/Shack is so vague >>

I guess that means we can rule out the ones with specific other links. Which... is what you've been doing? :P.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

I feel like acid is a really good guess, I imagine it would dissolve some of the clothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Striker is a co-conspirator, maybe even the assassin. The pendant seems possible. Honestly I have never been good at Clue or things like this, I’ll need some more hints lol 

Thanks for reminding me archer, I’ve had a busy day, so I might not have remembered 

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Tbh I doubt it’s right but if so I vote for a QF65b—

I'm not sure it is, and am relooking the religion Evidence clues, but also good to get it swept off the table for real either way. I agree with TJ's acid objection but just don't really feel other options make much sense.

Hope springs ever eternal, they say.

I do have some yellow Maybes I could probably add back in, but still don't feel the Nakedness is easy to construct a coherent narrative around given what we have.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I guess that means we can rule out the ones with specific other links. Which... is what you've been doing? :P.

I've been trying to do that, yeah, since I think PoE is basically the main way to go here  

Edited March 18, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

Hmmm, if Araris selected the location pile deliberately, it means the crime is not specific to any kind of rooms in the house (Location #1 pile). Yes you'd imagine hut/shack to not have many rooms but still it feels like hut/shack is not the accurate location of the crime. I was thinking of a cave... perhaps that's closer to Wilderness but not sure. Cave could fit with Naked + Ritual. 

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Hmmm, if Araris selected the location pile deliberately, it means the crime is not specific to any kind of rooms in the house (Location #1 pile). Yes you'd imagine hut/shack to not have many rooms but still it feels like hut/shack is not the accurate location of the crime. I was thinking of a cave... perhaps that's closer to Wilderness but not sure. Cave could fit with Naked + Ritual. 

Why couldn't you have the ritual be in the Cellar or in a Temple? Dakhor monks aren't exactly ostracised or a splinter sect, given they're part of the main religion of Fjorden.

Here's another guess, that doesn't fully work but:

Wiz = Black Frayn + Grand Robe.

The slight twist/problem is that Black Frayn is an addictive drug and a poison, so you'd think that Poisoning/Sickness is the appropriate box, but suppose that Araris had in mind an accidental overdose like the Straff Venture scenario?

One of the properties of Black Frayn is it makes the victim feel warm, as though they are burning a metal. Suppose the victim undressed under the influence of Black Frayn prior to passing away? 

The downside is I can't make sense of the Religious Worship issue in this scenario which makes me feel as though I'm missing something.

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Why couldn't you have the ritual be in the Cellar or in a Temple? Dakhor monks aren't exactly ostracised or a splinter sect, given they're part of the main religion of Fjorden.

Here's another guess, that doesn't fully work but:

Wiz = Black Frayn + Grand Robe.

The slight twist/problem is that Black Frayn is an addictive drug and a poison, so you'd think that Poisoning/Sickness is the appropriate box, but suppose that Araris had in mind an accidental overdose like the Straff Venture scenario?

One of the properties of Black Frayn is it makes the victim feel warm, as though they are burning a metal. Suppose the victim undressed under the influence of Black Frayn prior to passing away? 

The downside is I can't make sense of the Religious Worship issue in this scenario which makes me feel as though I'm missing something.

I had a similar thought of Wiz, Aon Ene (Fire), and Grand Robe, but that last one isn’t religious in nature so idk

[Kasimir]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

I had a similar thought of Wiz, Aon Ene (Fire), and Grand Robe, but that last one isn’t religious in nature so idk

That's my problem right now, yes. The other issue with Fire is it's weird calling it at Noon.

I've also got a WMG relating Aimian to Noon over the shadow problem but it's so tenuous I don't feel remotely confident about it.

Hoo boy okay crack time:

TJ = Enhanced Strength + Portrait. It's a nude painting and uh, something religious...yeah no that's not gonna work.

[Mat]

I could see xino, Kandra Digestive Acids, and Words Inscribed in Steel. I also like Explosion (Cinnamon's) as an option but none of their evidences fit all that well to me. It's a similar thing to Aman's Fire, none of his evidences fit super well imo. Fifth's Midnight Essence could fit the Naked clue I guess, in the same way Acid does, with Aon Reo as the evidence. Does Mistwraith fit Naked? Looking at that from Shining paired with A'kar's Symbol which sounds religious but idk what it is exactly. I guess Mistwraith doesn't really work with Noon being the time of day. Kas' Booby Trap works if it's an acid or fire type of booby trap, and then I guess... Mastrell Sash? Black Sphere?

That's a super messy paragraph sorry xD

[Amanuensis]

Btw if Striker is an Investigator, it seems he’s still the Shield of the Exe, even when there is none

[StrikerEZ]

17 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@StrikerEZ what made you cross-reference worship with evidence over any other combination?

I figured everyone else was doing the murder weapons, so I’d do evidence. And the religious worship clue was the only clue I could see on my screen on mobile while also looking at the evidences.

Posting this now so I don’t lose it before going to page 2

[The Unknown Ajah]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah but that was a good catch from @Archer.

I do wonder if it's the contrastive problem again: not Entertainment, not Assembly, not Trading, not Social Visit, not Feast, so this was the best of bad fits. Not sure.

Hut/shack could suggest something more wilderness-related, as Archer I think pointed out. But that doesn't seem to gel very well with Religious Worship unless it's something like a small, cult-like thing. I looked at Dakhor Ritual a bit but the more I think about it, the more it doesn't feel quite right, because you'd expect the closer clue in that case to be Temple/Church. 

But keep in mind something:

Cf:

In other words, Araris thinks that Hut/Shack is a much better option than: 

Everything there. Note: Sea/Ocean, Wilderness. 

I don't think I can emphasise this more. This in my view rules out a lot of the Patji animal-related Methods, as well as Drowning and Dueling, off the top of my head. I am actually more dubious of Archer's insistence on Highstorm now because Wilderness or Fields or anywhere in the open would likely have been more suggestive of Highstorm.

FWIW, the fact it is Noon leans me against Shades as well.

Disclaimer: I have tunneled myself super hard into Mat with the highstorm. 

My thoughts on the highstorm or that it was either flying boulder crushed the shack, or lightning burned the hut down. My guess for why he didn't pick somewhere outside was so he could incorporate the evidence better.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Ah right, forgot about the Supernatural option.

I'm down to use my accusation on Striker/Acid/Shu-Korath Pendant right now btw, just lemme know if it's worth confirming/denying today.

I personally am going to wait until tomorrow to do anything, but this will be useful info.

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I am making an Accusation! I accuse StrikerEZ of being the Assassin, and I think he used Acid to commit the murder and that the Key Evidence he left behind is the Shu-Korath Pendant.

No.

[Mat]

So that specific combination is wrong, but it still could be, like, Striker/Acid/MaiPon Sticks or Striker/Rope/Shu-Korath Pendant. Is that how this works?

[Amanuensis]

26 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So that specific combination is wrong, but it still could be, like, Striker/Acid/MaiPon Sticks or Striker/Rope/Shu-Korath Pendant. Is that how this works?

Yeah, tho I don’t believe any other combination for him covers all six tiles