Quick Fix 65: More Deception: Murder in the Cosmere

[Ashbringer]

Okay, this is different.

One thing I was trying to build for Assassin!Mat in 65a - how much do we think Araris is choosing cards based on the Assassin's other methods/evidences, vs the Co-Conspirator's, vs everyone's? I'm rather limited for time at the moment.

[Kasimir]

35 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

One thing I was trying to build for Assassin!Mat in 65a - how much do we think Araris is choosing cards based on the Assassin's other methods/evidences, vs the Co-Conspirator's, vs everyone's? I'm rather limited for time at the moment.

What do you mean?

I think he stated in non-optimal cases, he sometimes chooses to 'rule things out', e.g. the Noon choice wasn't Assassin-related last iteration, so much as to help us rule out Night-based options. 

54 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Shardblade COULD denote it would be without bloodloss and there isn't a particular body part required specifically to be pierced to kill the person. 

Why wouldn't you pick Arena or Battlefield in that case as location? So much more obvious.

55 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Could say the same for Nightblood. 

Why wouldn't you pick Visual rather than Sudden Sound? Nightblood's black smoke is iconic.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Either way, Partial is referring to important physical clues on the victim's body (versus Head, Hand, Leg, All-Over)

My sense is you're reading this as Method-indicative rather than Evidence-indicative, yeah? Not sure where I stand on that right now - as TJ pointed out. my Stone case is based on a bash to the skull with a Stone, so if we read it as being Method-related, then I think Stone is a non-starter - Araris should've gone with Head in that world.

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

which I don't see a Gun/Crossbow/etc resulting in, given the precision of their damage, whereas partial matches up to a predator beast attack imo (less focused more primal)

Fair.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Wilderness likely points out to an animal attack imo, because iirc we were discussing it in the first round and Araris would have thought that it was the easiest way to denote it. 

I guess that's another point that sticks out to me though: given how much that was being mentioned last iteration, I feel as though Araris would surely have given us the easy out by not selecting Wilderness if wildlife attacks hadn't been involved. I don't know how convinced I feel of this though.

[|TJ|]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why wouldn't you pick Arena or Battlefield in that case as location? So much more obvious.

I keep thinking Araris RNGs for the location column and then chooses the best in that column, my bad. Yeah, I'm not that convinced about Shardblade and there's no appropriate old slave in wilderness Evidence for Nightblood too, which is why it did not make the final list. 

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I guess that's another point that sticks out to me though: given how much that was being mentioned last iteration, I feel as though Araris would surely have given us the easy out by not selecting Wilderness if wildlife attacks hadn't been involved. I don't know how convinced I feel of this though.

Yeah which is why either the method or the evidence has got some form of animal attack in it. 

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My sense is you're reading this as Method-indicative rather than Evidence-indicative, yeah? Not sure where I stand on that right now - as TJ pointed out. my Stone case is based on a bash to the skull with a Stone, so if we read it as being Method-related, then I think Stone is a non-starter - Araris should've gone with Head in that world.

Thoughts on Archer/Parshendi/Claw Marks instead? [like swap Stone in your guess for Parshendi].

[Stick.]

TKN—> Tonk could also be indicative of the Wilderness
I’m thinking the slave rank has probably got to do more with the evidence than the method…Ragged Cloak, Dust, Crem are some pieces of evidence but I don’t understand why Araris would pick slave over peasant for those. Actually, after going through the evidence list I’m not seeing anything much that would point more towards slave over peasant. So it’s Probably got to do with the method of murder. 

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I’m gonna do something a little different this time. Gonna make a list of what combo of clues work best for each player. Also I apologize for the formatting, as I’m doing this on mobile.

TKN: Shardblade + White Clothing

Aman: Dagger + Cremlings

Kas: Meekers + Artifact

Alpha: Steelrunning + Crab legs/Cigar case

Fifth: Acid + Pet Monkey

JNV: Soulcasting + Hog

Life came up so I had to stop early. Hopefully will be able to get the rest of my guesses in either this cycle or next.

[Kasimir]

16 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Thoughts on Archer/Parshendi/Claw Marks instead? [like swap Stone in your guess for Parshendi].

That's what @Sart brought up. But I don't disagree with him that Sudden Sound is odd for Parshendi - the Parshendi should be Attuning, meaning it'd be a Prolonged Sound rather than Sudden Sound.

I am struggling to see a world where Wilderness doesn't indicate Method - it's just too broad if Araris doesn't use it as a constraint, because kill methods that make sudden sounds are still more plentiful than ones that could plausibly take place in the Wilderness over other location choices. I don't disagree he could have gone for a two-for-one where Evidence was concerned, though.

I want to return a bit to Araris's MO because I think that's more helpful here given I at least have been running in circles:

Quote

Cause of Death: A highstorm seemed like something that would generally be accidental, though I was tempted to pick Supernatural for this as well. In general, the highstorm seemed a lot more distinctive, so most of my clues were focused on that, with the hopes that players would have enough guesses to narrow things from there.

Location: Again thinking about the highstorm, I liked this tile because the hut is really the only one of these locations you could be killed by a highstorm in, while the other tiles with options more fitting (wilderness, field, etc.) had multiple choices that could go with highstorm. I also felt like it was plausible that a weapon could be left behind in a shack, though the other food items fit that as well.

Evidence: So I felt like this was an obvious fit as a clue for the Key Evidence, which is why I went with manmade.

Clothes: This seemed like a pretty easy way to clue into highstorm; being naked is related to dying of exposure. It also seemed like it would lead away from a lot of other options.

Time of Death: I didn't really know what to do here. Highstorms aren't really limited by time of day, and a weapon doesn't really match a particular time either, so I was mostly trying to clue away from anything that would specifically happen at night.

In Progress: Another tile I didn't really know what to do with. The options here didn't really fit either the Method or the Evidence that well in my opinion, but I was thinking that highstorms have some religious ties on Roshar, and was planning on making this the first tile I replaced. Not picking Feast might have helped narrow down the Evidence options for anyone that was guessing Mat as the Assassin.

Corpse Condition: This seemed like another great opportunity to clue into the highstorm. If I could pick a word I would have liked on this tile it would have been "mangled", but Twisted came pretty close.

1. If a tile doesn't work too well, Araris shrugs and tries to 'clue away' from other alternatives and plans to replace it if it is a poor fit. In other words, exclusion is important. especially if a tile doesn't seem to make sense. This stands out to me for tiles like Elderly and Slave.

2. He tried to select Location in a way that both narrowed down other Methods and fit the Evidence. I think this might be a suggestion he applied the same methodology here in Location selection. (Weak suggestion this might be going on with Partial here?)

If we return to the Evidence set, following 2:

<Tonk, Cremlings, Water Vine, Crab Legs, Pet Monkey, Hog, Chull Dung, Crem, Pet Lizard, Claw Marks>

This 'narrows' it to:

<TKN, Aman, Alpha, Fifth, JNV, Stick, Mat, Wiz, Archer> 

Of these people, who have Wilderness-related Methods?

• Dropping TKN. Dakhor and Shardblade are a poor fit for Wilderness, Rathbore Monk is less likely to target an Elderly Slave, and anyway this is better signalled by Temple, and Blackbane should have resulted in a Poisoning/Sickness Cause of Death choice. Buried Alive is properly Suffocation.
   
• For Aman, Dagger is an odd choice for Wilderness. Better signalled by Slums. Deepwalker should have elicited an obvious Sea/Ocean pick, and Nightblood IMO shouldn't be associated with Wilderness and should anyway have elicited a Visual as observed by a bystander. Black Frayn is obvious Poisoning as Cause of Death, and I feel like you could make a decent case for 'Sickness' as Dehydration but I could, I suppose, see the slave passing out/collapsing as the Sudden Sound. So if Aman is on the table, I feel it has to be Aman = Dehydration + Cremlings/Water Vine.
   
• Alpha doesn't feel like a good fit. Cutaway Vines are very Wilderness but should not have resulted in a Sudden Sound. Bloodsealing and Steelrunning are more intuitively Supernatural. Poisonous Sting is possible here, but why not go for Poison/Sickness? Hook is an option, but feels like Slums or anything urban might be a better choice, seeing as it occurs with Inquisitor executions.
   
• For Fifth, Ettmetal Explosion fits with Sudden Sound and Severe Injury, but is a strange fit with Wilderness (to be fair, so many things are weird fits with Ettmetal Explosion...) Given the strength of Ettmetal, I agree with Archer after further thought - Ettmetal Explosion shouldn't have resulted in partial hints. (I think this is true no matter which way you read Hint on Corpse.) Aon Sheo is obviously Supernatural, a Poisoned Needle should have been Poisoning/Sickness, and Acid is an odd fit with Wilderness and I don't think it would cause a Sudden Sound as the victim would be screaming in agony. Aimian is possible here, if we are thinking about a specialised hordeling I suppose. Still, for the sake of it: Fifth = Ettmetal Explosion/Aimian + Pet Monkey.
   
• Of JNV's set, Bow and Arrow is possible. Soulcasting seems fairly Supernatural, while a Hammer is theoretically possible but strange for Wilderness. A Jeskeri Cult Ritual shoudn't have resulted in a Sudden Sound, and while a Toxic Fungus works with Wilderness, again, seems like a Poisoning/Sickness case. JNV = Bow and Arrow + Hog.
   
• For Stick, I consider Sandling or Explosion likely, with the caveat that Explosion is once again a strange choice for Wilderness. I'd expect it more for Fields or Farmhouse because of grain silos. (All those hours in Assassin's Creed: Odyssey ftw.) Drowning should have called for Ocean/Sea, and being Burned At The Steak is going to lead to a Prolonged Sound. (Also, not in the Wilderness!) A Grandbow is theoretically possible but much more battlefield-related. Stick = Sandling/Explosion + Chull Dung.
   
• In Mat's case, I'm generally looking at Cliff. A Mistwraith seems more slums or slightly more urban, but anyway, being devoured by one should probably lead to a Prolonged Sound. Neither the Bands of Mourning, nor Martial Arts, nor a Dueling Cane have Wilderness associations. Mat = Cliff + Crem.
   
• For Wiz, Firesnap Lizards and the Pistol are live options. Coins should be urban, calling to mind the Scadrial/Mistborn setting, while a Sword is an Arena or Battlefield weapon. Backbreaker Powder is a Poison. Wiz = Firesnap Lizards / Pistol + Pet Lizard.
   
• For Archer, I think it's between Parshendi and Stone. The other three are all clear weaponry options, whereas a Stone isn't an awful fit for the Wilderness. (See: Talk with TJ about Head as a concern about Stone.) And as Sart pointed out, Parshendi might not fit well because we would expect a Prolonged Noise. Archer = Parshendi/Stone + Claw Marks

I need to sleep on this one properly. I feel like I'm just missing something very big between the two sets.

 

[Stick.]

Explosions don’t work cuz wouldn’t the corpse hint be more of an all over sorta deal? But I would definitely pick sudden sound over visual when it comes to explosions so there’s that. Except, in the case of ettmetal explosions, visual would be the one I’d pick cuz of the colours. 

[Kasimir]

29 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Explosions don’t work cuz wouldn’t the corpse hint be more of an all over sorta deal? But I would definitely pick sudden sound over visual when it comes to explosions so there’s that. Except, in the case of ettmetal explosions, visual would be the one I’d pick cuz of the colours. 

I'm reading Explosion as weaker than Ettmetal Explosion. Ettmetal Explosion would probably be like being at ground zero of Hiroshima unless I'm misreading something. That, I don't expect to be reasonable.

I'm also still reading 'Hint on Corpse' to be about the actual location of the Evidence than the condition of the corpse, which is probably influencing my analysis even when committing to treat Wilderness as a claim about both Location and Evidence. Which is to say that after how much we are all bickering about what this means, I fully expect Araris to remove 'Hint on Corpse' tomorrow....

Edited to add:

Okay. So suppose we commit to 'Hint on Corpse' being condition of corpse. There's no guarantee Araris would draw a better tile so perhaps he wanted to get that in. 

This means that there has to be a Severe Injury that is also not a Precision Injury (cf. Partial) but Severe enough to kill? Moreover, it makes a Sudden Sound but - notably - isn't Visual, doesn't have a noticeable Action, and doesn't make a Prolonged Sound?

The frick is this >>

Edited to add 2:

Unrelated but I guess this means that if a guy falls in the wilderness, he makes a sound.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

<Tonk, Cremlings, Water Vine, Crab Legs, Pet Monkey, Hog, Chull Dung, Crem, Pet Lizard, Claw Marks>

Couldn’t RaiDel Pepper (evidence) also technically fit the Wilderness clue? There’s also Fruit Juice, which is kinda random but doesn’t really fit any of the locations except maybe wilderness if you really had to pick one. 

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Couldn’t RaiDel Pepper (evidence) also technically fit the Wilderness clue? There’s also Fruit Juice, which is kinda random but doesn’t really fit any of the locations except maybe wilderness if you really had to pick one. 

I'd read them as more Marketplace tbh. RaiDel Peppers are cultivated, which I don't associate with Wilderness. Feels a bit too far for me.

Edited to add: Referring to both in this case.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

In Mat's case, I'm generally looking at Cliff. A Mistwraith seems more slums or slightly more urban, but anyway, being devoured by one should probably lead to a Prolonged Sound. Neither the Bands of Mourning, nor Martial Arts, nor a Dueling Cane have Wilderness associations. Mat = Cliff + Crem.

What would cliff entail? Pushing the victim off a cliff? Shouldn’t that lead to a prolonged sound?

[Kasimir]

17 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

What would cliff entail? Pushing the victim off a cliff? Shouldn’t that lead to a prolonged sound?

I was assuming there'd be the sound of impact, that's it, but that's to do with a crack theory that the Elderly is meant to hint at Ättestupa. If not, then cross it off if he'd keep screaming all the way down. 

[Araris Valerian]

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I am making an Accusation! I accuse Sart of being the Assassin, and I think he used a Whitespine to commit the murder and that the Key Evidence he left behind is the Lockpicks.

@Araris Valerian 

No.

[Amanuensis]

RIP

ED1T:

I have combed the lists like ten times and nothing makes sense to me for Elderly Slave but Ragged Cloak and Lockpicks I don't think my brain works for this game

ED2T:

All I know is this gives my ADHD brain severe cognitive dissonance

ED3T:

MoMs and PoEs (cuz I'm tired of going back to C0 to find this :P)

Spoiler

Edited March 22, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir]

49 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I have combed the lists like ten times and literally nothing makes sense for Elderly Slave but Ragged Cloak and Lockpicks I don't think my brain works for this game

I'm still working on my thoughts as I'm struggling more with this one, but I've been taking Slave now to rule out most pieces of Evidence that seem incompatible on the basis of wealth. Stick isn't wrong that there's a potential overlap with Peasant here so it might impinge onto Method as well but I feel like at least basic Evidence PoE is doable with this. Chiefly excluding things like the Moon Scepter, Tarachin Ball (played by wealthy on Nalthis), Aluminium Ingots (heavy and he's Elderly), etcetera.

I think there is a world in which he is in fact absconding with something expensive, which might be the scenario that Araris is thinking of, crime-scene-wise, but this isn't a level I feel comfortable or confident at plying until and unless there's a tile that points in that direction.

Edited to add:

FWIW I'm just de facto ruling out Firesnap Lizards and refusing to look at them any further. I reread Dawnshard and Sixth of the Dusk for this (speedread tbf) and Firesnap Lizards get exactly one passing mention. That's it. We know they're lethal, we don't even remotely know how they kill. As far as I'm concerned, there's no real basis to know how Araris would run with that one if that Method were used but my suspicion is Prolonged Sound or Smell. If someone really wants and we're desperate at endgame we can probably rule that one out but I wouldn't go there anytime soon.

Edited to add 2:

For anyone who is wondering:

Spoiler

That's it. That's all we know about it. Ggwp.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

Is there any strategic advantage to making accusations this cycle? 

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Is there any strategic advantage to making accusations this cycle? 

Yes and no. Information can help, especially if the consensus is that there's only one or two main sets of options. I've been mulling over kicking the pistol option off the table myself, just for information purposes. Really, it's just that we can't afford to compact it all into C3 because it's unlikely we'll get the time to reassess at that point, even with an extended cycle, if everyone is doing it last minute. But it's also worth remembering V!Aman did a C1 accusation last iteration as well.

Edited to add:

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

FWIW I'm just de facto ruling out Firesnap Lizards and refusing to look at them any further. I reread Dawnshard and Sixth of the Dusk for this (speedread tbf) and Firesnap Lizards get exactly one passing mention. That's it. We know they're lethal, we don't even remotely know how they kill. As far as I'm concerned, there's no real basis to know how Araris would run with that one if that Method were used but my suspicion is Prolonged Sound or Smell. If someone really wants and we're desperate at endgame we can probably rule that one out but I wouldn't go there anytime soon.

Inb4 Araris be judging: "I used Sudden Sound to make you think of snap ffs Kas what do you want, a burning bush?!?!?"

Yes pls tbh.

Edited to add 2:

@_Stick_: To be clear, when I say info can help, it's more in terms of trying to clear the slate and getting people to move off bad lines of thought. If discussion stagnates or loops around in circles, it's a de facto waste of C1. Still, this slate-clearing is good in a world where there's only so many whitespine combinations that we can reasonably take Aman's failed Accusation as an indication to look elsewhere. If you think there are many other whitespine combinations, then not so good.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I've been mulling over kicking the pistol option off the table myself, just for information purposes.

But Araris will say no even if 2/3 pieces of info are correct right? So it doesn’t seem all that worth it especially if we’re being given new clues every cycle 

[|TJ|]

I think Araris chose Cause of Death as Severe Injury, not to be specific but to rule out all Poison items, Melee Weapons and Long Range Weapons causing blood loss. The specific indication here is likely Slave because he specifically chose that over Peasant. And the answer is likely evidences that are unique to Slave. 

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

But Araris will say no even if 2/3 pieces of info are correct right? So it doesn’t seem all that worth it especially if we’re being given new clues every cycle 

Again, this is why I clarify it only works in a world where you think there are only so many options that connect up together. If, for instance, there's a consensus that as a Method, Booby Trap only works with Pet Lizard, then getting a solid no there is good. If you ascribe low probability to the other Evidences next to Booby Trap, then getting a no is still good. If you think there are too many possibilities, then it's not strategic to get a no there.

In the case of Pistol, I've been considering whether it's worth it because the way I see it, most people who have said anything about the matter and who theorise it's Pistol or a projectile weapon also think it has to be Pet Lizard because Wilderness. I do think getting a no is probably enough to sweep the rest off the table for this one because Horneater Lager doesn't really work so good with Partial, and the rest would probably demand Hand for Evidence (firemoss and Hand is an obvious call!) But I'm also principally against picking an option I don't think is right just to close the option off - I'd prefer to make a right guess and then be confidently wrong lmao.

Again, us being given new clues each cycle only works if there's discussion and if we're revising in the right direction. If we're not, or we're cramming it last minute, we're probably in trouble too. It also assumes we'll get helpful clues - we could be told the victim is Thin, which might rule out some food clues, but it would still not be the most useful tile to unlock. Contra Archer, I actually think knowing the time of day isn't helpful either.

To be clear, I'm generally not a proponent of making an actual Accusation in C1, but C2 is fair game.

8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

And the answer is likely evidences that are unique to Slave. 

Which are?

Edited to add:

@|TJ| Question for you. If the Aracle had picked Sea/Ocean for Location and Blood Loss for Method of Death, with a Chest Injury - what's your guess for Method?

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Okay. Hmm. Here goes:

I am making an Accusation! I accuse The Wandering Wizard of being the Assassin, I believe he used the Pistol to commit the murder, and the evidence he left behind was the scattered Bullet Casings on the ground.

@Araris Valerian

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Araris Valerian]

Just now, TheAlpha929 said:

Okay. Hmm. Here goes:

I am making an Accusation! I accuse The Wandering Wizard of being the Assassin, I believe he used the Pistol to commit the murder, and the evidence he left behind was the scattered Bullet Casings on the ground.

@Araris Valerian

 

No.

[Stick.]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Again, this is why I clarify it only works in a world where you think there are only so many options that connect up together. If, for instance, there's a consensus that as a Method, Booby Trap only works with Pet Lizard, then getting a solid no there is good. If you ascribe low probability to the other Evidences next to Booby Trap, then getting a no is still good. If you think there are too many possibilities, then it's not strategic to get a no there.

In the case of Pistol, I've been considering whether it's worth it because the way I see it, most people who have said anything about the matter and who theorise it's Pistol or a projectile weapon also think it has to be Pet Lizard because Wilderness. I do think getting a no is probably enough to sweep the rest off the table for this one because Horneater Lager doesn't really work so good with Partial, and the rest would probably demand Hand for Evidence (firemoss and Hand is an obvious call!) But I'm also principally against picking an option I don't think is right just to close the option off - I'd prefer to make a right guess and then be confidently wrong lmao.

Again, us being given new clues each cycle only works if there's discussion and if we're revising in the right direction. If we're not, or we're cramming it last minute, we're probably in trouble too. It also assumes we'll get helpful clues - we could be told the victim is Thin, which might rule out some food clues, but it would still not be the most useful tile to unlock. Contra Archer, I actually think knowing the time of day isn't helpful either.

To be clear, I'm generally not a proponent of making an actual Accusation in C1, but C2 is fair game.

Which are?

Yeah lol i missed your edits soz 

Thinking about the elderly - Rotspren kind of fits  Old people are close to death. Only problem is, nothing in Mat’s list fits the sudden sound description. So maybe the Picture of a Flower? Mare is pretty old (and dead). Skaa are close to slaves. But that sounds like a stretch. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Oof oh well I didn’t really think that was right anyway 

Edited March 22, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah lol i missed your edits soz 

Np I'm just thinking aloud until I can sleep because it's bothering me I have multiple distinct hypotheses and nothing I feel could at least secure a B grade -.-

7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Thinking about the elderly - Rotspren kind of fits  Old people are close to death. Only problem is, nothing in Mat’s list fits the sudden sound description. So maybe the Picture of a Flower? Mare is pretty old (and dead). Skaa are close to slaves. But that sounds like a stretch. 

Yeah. It (Mat's Methods) also doesn't fully interact with the Slave bit. Also questions about what an Elderly Slave is doing in the Wilderness, which is why the hunting trip death narrative was at least a bit compelling. Feels...off but I guess it's another reason I'd lean against options that are very physical, on the supposition there wouldn't be much of an altercation or struggle.

Edited to add:

I s2g if Araris removes Slave tomorrow imma cry-laugh my way to work...

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir