Quick Fix 65: More Deception: Murder in the Cosmere

[Mat]

• Telrao: Air-Powered Crossbow / Tools
• Wiz: Sword / Firemoss
• Stick: Grandbow / Chull Dung
• Fifth: Aimian / Pot of Stew, Ragged Cloak
• Aman: Dagger / Cremlings, Hemalurgic Earring

All seem possible to me. My thought process here is matching Severe Wound/Partial/Sudden Sound to Cause of Death while matching Slave more towards Piece of Evidence (thinking about Wilderness in regards to both, and ignoring Elderly completely).

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

43 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No chance that was an elim slip, right? xD

I’m still really new to SE. I get too excited with mind games 

[Archer]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Telrao: Air-Powered Crossbow / Tools
• Wiz: Sword / Firemoss
• Stick: Grandbow / Chull Dung
• Fifth: Aimian / Pot of Stew, Ragged Cloak
• Aman: Dagger / Cremlings, Hemalurgic Earring

All seem possible to me. My thought process here is matching Severe Wound/Partial/Sudden Sound to Cause of Death while matching Slave more towards Piece of Evidence (thinking about Wilderness in regards to both, and ignoring Elderly completely).

My thinking about the weapons was that they fit best under Loss of Blood. Severe Injury is the vaguest category, so it's best to choose another one if you can. And IIRC there's not too many bloodletting causes of death, so I don't see Araris not going that way. 

Perhaps the bows could be considered more Severe Injury than blood loss, but then I'd also bring Pistol back into the fold. 

33 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I've made worse  So it could be, but the only likely option is parshendi for Archer, that is assuming Alpha slipped up and revealed Archer as such. 

Ngl I looked at my Methods tiles and they're all pretty suspicious. I wouldn't blame anyone for guessing me, but encourage you to wait for more information. There's zero incentive to guess early.

[The Wandering Wizard]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

Perhaps the bows could be considered more Severe Injury than blood loss, but then I'd also bring Pistol back into the fold. 

41 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I would probably consider pistol severe injury because one shot and you are dead. Plus is would make a loud noise, so would a bow. I wouldn't count those two out from my perspective.

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

Ngl I looked at my Methods tiles and they're all pretty suspicious. I wouldn't blame anyone for guessing me, but encourage you to wait for more information. There's zero incentive to guess early.

I was planning on waiting or unless I felt strongly about a set of evidence for a decent chunk of time.

[Amanuensis]

I also reached Fifth, Aimian, Ragged Cloak independently of Archer. Seems to be the cleanest fit atm.

I like Sart, Whitespine, and Lockpicks too, but not as much as the above.

Mayyybe TJ, Nightmaw, Death Rattle?

Will ruminate more.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat]

59 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I’m still really new to SE. I get too excited with mind games 

That doesn’t answer my question :thinking:

I lean against creature deaths since they’re easily labeled as accidental, and probably wouldn’t give a partial wound. A weapon seems like a closer fit to me.

[Kasimir]

@Archer, @Matrim's Dice

I think my issue with creature deaths is that I feel some count as accidental and some could count as severe injury. Deathants kill with a single bite, so I could see that being more accidental. Chasmfiends, deepwalkers, whitespines, and nightmaws are so lethal that I can't see death by these vectors as being 'accidental' when they could just as easily be through severe injury. I think the better argument against them is that you'd think becoming say, a nightmaw chewtoy would lead to a Prolonged Sound.

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I would probably consider pistol severe injury because one shot and you are dead. Plus is would make a loud noise, so would a bow. I wouldn't count those two out from my perspective.

Depends on where you shoot with the pistol. Can run the gamut from trauma injury to bleeding out, with severe blood loss being a clear death vector. Source: first aid exams on treating gunshot wounds, never again please :| I think my issue with air-powered crossbow is that it's less likely to make a sudden noise - seems analogous to a gun with a suppressor. ( @Amanuensis, any relevant expertise here?)

4 hours ago, Sart said:

Personally, I like this thought process. We know that the murder took place in the wilderness, but also that it was not an accident. If this was truly a wild animal attack, why not choose Accident. This contradiction, along with the sudden noise being heard at the crime scene, makes me think we're looking at a projectile weapon, like a gun.

Why would a wild animal attack be an Accident? Becoming a chasmfiend chewtoy isn't 'accidental', and the immediate cause of death would be Severe Injury. It would also lead us back towards territory like Highstorms and Cliff, which is arguably just as misleading, in the wild animal attack world you're considering. But in general, I just struggle to understand why you would do Wilderness which is misleading rather than Arena or Battlefield or Rooftops, which is arguably more crossbow associated.

I could see Pistol working with Wilderness though, so I'm not fully against this.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

If it's Nightmaw, I don't see why TJ would do anything but Red Flag (:P) which you have to choose visual clue for because there's no other way to hint at it. 

Why would he? You yourself pointed out last game that the best play is to pick a disconnected Evidence from Method of Death. It isn't the Assassin's job to come up with a coherent Scene-of-Crime narrative - that's the GM's job.

Edited to add:

Ettmetal Explosion or just Explosion shouldn't be consistent with Wilderness, yeah? I'm filling out my matrices atm.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[Fifth Scholar]

55 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I also reached Fifth, Aimian, Ragged Cloak independently of Archer. Seems to be the cleanest fit atm.

The strongest argument I can offer against me being the murderer in this way (because it isn't a terrible fit) is that given my options, I'd have chosen something way cooler, like an Aon-Shao-wielding Pet Monkey  

The issue I actually have with animal attacks is the Partial thing. Whitespines and the like aren't going to leave any part of you intact when they're done with you.  Was contemplating an Air-Powered Bow but am struggling to fit it into the old slave/wilderness narrative, and there isn't great matching evidence pieces to go with there either

[Kasimir]

22 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The issue I actually have with animal attacks is the Partial thing. Whitespines and the like aren't going to leave any part of you intact when they're done with you.  Was contemplating an Air-Powered Bow but am struggling to fit it into the old slave/wilderness narrative, and there isn't great matching evidence pieces to go with there either

I think the question is, is Partial the corpse condition, though?

Because IMO, there's a distinction between:

Hint on Corpse

Head

Chest

Hand

Leg

Partial

All-over

and

Corpse Condition

Still Warm

Stiff

Decayed

Altered

Intact

Twisted

Specifically wrt intact or not. You could argue the overlap is necessary and ambiguity is part of the game (yes, fair), but I've been currently reading this as a claim about the Evidence rather than the Method ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add:

Maybe let me rephrase/reframe this question. Do you think that Araris completely neglected to give us any hint about the Evidence this cycle? If he didn't, then which tile(s) captures it?

Edited March 22, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Ajah]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

No chance that was an elim slip, right? xD

We can only hope.

Can't say I like Fifth/Aimian/Cloak, but I don't really have a firm reason why.

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Can't say I like Fifth/Aimian/Cloak, but I don't really have a firm reason why.

Is your issue Method or Evidence related, if you can locate it in one of them?

[Fifth Scholar]

40 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Maybe let me rephrase/reframe this question. Do you think that Araris completely neglected to give us any hint about the Evidence this cycle? If he didn't, then which tile(s) captures it?

“Noticed by bystander” seems to capture the left-behind evidence pretty well. But everything else (status of victim and his body) would seem to point to the How of the killing. Araris can swap out tiles, so it’s not inconceivable we’ll get more evidence hints later. For your part, if you think that “hint on corpse” points to evidence, what would you consider a “partial” hint or trace, as opposed to an “all-over” one? Just size?

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Mayyybe TJ, Nightmaw, Death Rattle?

I feel like Araris would classify a Rattle as a prolonged sound. TJ+Nightmaw+Map feels too easy, right? By which I mean, why choose two things that work together if you're the Assassain? Maps are a Wilderness thing

57 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Archer, @Matrim's Dice

I think my issue with creature deaths is that I feel some count as accidental and some could count as severe injury. Deathants kill with a single bite, so I could see that being more accidental. Chasmfiends, deepwalkers, whitespines, and nightmaws are so lethal that I can't see death by these vectors as being 'accidental' when they could just as easily be through severe injury. I think the better argument against them is that you'd think becoming say, a nightmaw chewtoy would lead to a Prolonged Sound.

Edited to add:

Ettmetal Explosion or just Explosion shouldn't be consistent with Wilderness, yeah? I'm filling out my matrices atm.

There's also the question of why the theoretical animal was heard instead of something being scene. Chasmfiends are big bois, surely that'd be visible to the witness. Hence my greater interest in nighttime creatures. I'm hoping we draw the time hints again. 

I rejected explosions because I feel like the evidence would be all over the body. 

39 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think the question is, is Partial the corpse condition, though?

Because IMO, there's a distinction between:

Hint on Corpse

Head

Chest

Hand

Leg

Partial

All-over

and

Corpse Condition

Still Warm

Stiff

Decayed

Altered

Intact

Twisted

Specifically wrt intact or not. You could argue the overlap is necessary and ambiguity is part of the game (yes, fair), but I've been currently reading this as a claim about the Evidence rather than the Method ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add:

Maybe let me rephrase/reframe this question. Do you think that Araris completely neglected to give us any hint about the Evidence this cycle? If he didn't, then which tile(s) captures it?

Was going to say maybe the Rattle was a hint he struggled to describe, but abandoned that idea. Honestly this clue is most useful if it's a piece of clothing Evidence eg eliminate the Green Hat option 

[Kasimir]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

“Noticed by bystander” seems to capture the left-behind evidence pretty well. But everything else (status of victim and his body) would seem to point to the How of the killing. Araris can swap out tiles, so it’s not inconceivable we’ll get more evidence hints later. For your part, if you think that “hint on corpse” points to evidence, what would you consider a “partial” hint or trace, as opposed to an “all-over” one? Just size?

If you think "noticed by bystander" captures left-behind evidence, then aren't you by default restricted to any piece of evidence that is an animal or a musical instrument? Is this where your guesses are at? It's certainly not inconceivable we'll get more evidence hints later, but I think it beggars belief he wouldn't even try to give us a single hint about the Evidence on Cycle 1, and I don't see this as a controversial assumption, given you are tacitly making it as well.

I'd consider partial a catch-all category, i.e. Araris selecting 'best of a bad lot': I've been using it to rule out anything that fits in other category, e.g. Colorful Scarf and Ragged Cloak seems better fit for Partial than All-Over (see: Ragged.) Pet Monkey, IMO, would also be Partial just because nothing else fits - meanwhile, Evidence like Make Up is better suited for head, therefore can be ruled out, while Half-Eaten Pancakes are reasonably in the Hand.

[Stick.]

Considering [Wiz, pistol, pet lizard]

Cuz wilderness —> evidence of a pet lizard or pet monkey etc 

Sudden sound —> pistol 

[JNV, bow and arrow, hog] also fit the bill cuz sudden sound is the best descriptor of a bow and arrow method of murder out of the options plus it fits both the descriptions of a severe but partial wound. Same with the pistol in Wiz’s case 

[Kasimir]

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

There's also the question of why the theoretical animal was heard instead of something being scene. Chasmfiends are big bois, surely that'd be visible to the witness. Hence my greater interest in nighttime creatures. I'm hoping we draw the time hints again. 

Fair. I think I agree on Elderly Slave being odd for a hunting expedition gone wrong scenario, though I had wondered if Araris picked Elderly for Grumpy Old Guy reasons but don't think he'd have let that get in the way of making sense.

I think my main issue with creatures is they're either lethal enough that Severe Injury makes sense but Sudden Sound doesn't, or they're not that lethal, in which case you'd expect Prolonged Noise. Which probably does bring me back to the projectile weapons, maybe Cliff if I'm looking for crack.

Low key tempted to wonder if Parshendi is ruled out by Sudden Sound. You'd expect them to be Attuning Rhythmns, no?

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Cuz wilderness —> evidence of a pet lizard or pet monkey etc 

But why pick Slave? Retrieving lost Pet Lizard/Monkey then got shot?

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

but partial wound

How do you know this?

[Sart]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Considering [Wiz, pistol, pet lizard]

Cuz wilderness —> evidence of a pet lizard or pet monkey etc 

Sudden sound —> pistol 

[JNV, bow and arrow, hog] also fit the bill cuz sudden sound is the best descriptor of a bow and arrow method of murder out of the options plus it fits both the descriptions of a severe but partial wound. Same with the pistol in Wiz’s case 

How does this factor in the victim being a slave? That's the thing that's sticking out at me. There was an option for a None rank, but instead the Almighty chose the Slave option, which is definitely an extreme.

What I'm leaning towards is Archer, Parshendi, and Claw Marks. The Parhsendi are generic enough that they wouldn't fit any other category. They are Slaves. The Wilderness location is meant to point us to the Claw Marks as evidence. The Hint on the Corpse points to Claw Marks as that's not an item that would appear on one particular part of the body. The victim being Elderly might be referencing the age of the Parshendi? Main thing that doesn't fit is the Sudden Noise. If this were the Parshendi, they should be singing all the time, and thus have a Prolonged noise. Not sure what's going on there, which is why I'm not comfortable submitting this.

[Kasimir]

9 minutes ago, Sart said:

they should be singing all the time, and thus have a Prolonged noise

I would argue this is significant since as Jasnah points out, the Parshendi sing when they kill.

Suppose we take Partial to be corpse condition and Slave to rule out a bunch of Evidence on the grounds a Slave wouldn't have, say, Hallendren dyes?

[Sart]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I would argue this is significant since as Jasnah points out, the Parshendi sing when they kill.

Suppose we take Partial to be corpse condition and Slave to rule out a bunch of Evidence on the grounds a Slave wouldn't have, say, Hallendren dyes?

Why I didn't spend my guess on it.

Partial isn't describing the corpse, it's describing where a hint on the corpse is. To me, that implies more information about the Evidence, rather than Cause of Death.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Sart said:

Partial isn't describing the corpse, it's describing where a hint on the corpse is. To me, that implies more information about the Evidence, rather than Cause of Death.

Fair. It's what I'm leaning towards right now, yeah.

---

I'm beginning to understand the attraction of Aimian and going back to the Bow/Pistol/Crossbow triad.

My current qualms with Explosion(s) is I'm not sure they make sense for Wilderness or an Elderly Slave. I continue to struggle as I think some of the wildlife cases can in fact cause Severe Injury but the Sudden Sound holds me back - I'd expect Hemalurgic Chimeras to hoot more, I accept Archer's point on the big boi Chasmfiend, which would leave me with a loose set of <Firesnap Lizards, Whitespine, Sandling, Nightmaw.> Deathants are an edge case because their pods make a distinctive hissing sound but that feels very hairsplitting and I'm not sure Araris would use Sudden Sound for that, so I still rule them out.

I rule out Grandbow as that's closer to the battlefield.

I sort of want to rule in Stone for Archer instead of Parshendi - the sudden noise could be the sound of the Ja's skull breaking? 

So say I take the set: <Bow, Pistol, Crossbow, Firesnap Lizards, Whitespine, Sandling, Nightmaw, Stone.>

• JNV = Bow and Arrow + Metal Flakes / Hog 
• Wiz = Firesnap / Pistol + Lizard / Bullet Casings
• Sart = Whitespine + Religious Text
• Stick = Sandling + Chull Dung / White Sand
• TJ = Nightmaw + Red Flag / Death Rattle
• Archer = Stone + Claw Marks / Shrine.

I need a nap before I can make an assessment of likelihood. But some scattered thoughts:

-Sandling + White Sand is a bold choice. Maybe not so likely.
-Death Rattle feels like it should be prolonged.
-Firesnap and Lizard or Pistol and Bullet Casings is also bold.

[JNV]

For some reason my brain keeps pulling me back to cliff but that doesnt really make sense also like Im not really sure about bow and arrow stuff making a sudden noise maybe the air powered one but like thats atypical of a bow also my brain has a paranoid theory about Explosion and like Chull Dung as a clue based off Wilderness but thats not really a good thought and Im sleepy so I think Ive got to vanish now more thoughts when Im less confused bye

[Amanuensis]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Depends on where you shoot with the pistol. Can run the gamut from trauma injury to bleeding out, with severe blood loss being a clear death vector. Source: first aid exams on treating gunshot wounds, never again please :| I think my issue with air-powered crossbow is that it's less likely to make a sudden noise - seems analogous to a gun with a suppressor. ( @Amanuensis, any relevant expertise here?)

TBH I'm not really liking the long ranged weapons because of the combination of Severe Injury and Partial. Feel like Blood Loss + Chest would be a more efficient clue there. Either way, Partial is referring to important physical clues on the victim's body (versus Head, Hand, Leg, All-Over) which I don't see a Gun/Crossbow/etc resulting in, given the precision of their damage, whereas partial matches up to a predator beast attack imo (less focused more primal)

I liked Ragged Cloak because it fits both Elderly and Slave. Since those two clues were the most specific of the lot, I've been using them as focus points, but possible I'm on the wrong track like with the previous iteration. Aimian is a little bit of a harder stretch, but given hordelings disguise themselves as cremlings literally everywhere, Wilderness kinda fits if Araris' goal is narrow things down.

Lockpick is the second best fit for Slave imo, since Slave implies Shackles and the lockpicks might correlate to the victim escaping into the wilderness, where they inevitably died to a wild animal attack (in this scenario, Sart's Whitespine).

ED1T:

Oh @Kasimir from the coppermind

Quote

Whitespines live in packs in dens^[1] that are often strewn with the bones of the creatures they have killed.^[7] Sometimes they will live near roadways to pick off travelers as prey.^[1] They hide near the carcass of their recent kill after consuming its meat, then hunt the scavengers that are attracted to the carcass.

Partial hint on body could also be referring to this specific Whitespine method of hunting; the beast wouldn't consume the entire victim.

ED2T:

Oh and the Elderly typically have white hair and weak spines lol

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat]

Aman, be careful about overcomplicating things  I feel like Araris would have tried to avoid logical leaps and complicated routes toward clues (like last time, how he picked clues based on what seemed the most right instead of finding specific coppermind quotes etc)

I know I said that last game when I was evil but I really mean it this time

[Amanuensis]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Aman, be careful about overcomplicating things  I feel like Araris would have tried to avoid logical leaps and complicated routes toward clues (like last time, how he picked clues based on what seemed the most right instead of finding specific coppermind quotes etc)

I know I said that last game when I was evil but I really mean it this time

Ze edits were mostly jokes/reaches  although I do think Sart/Whitespine/Lockpicks seems the most right regardless, so

I am making an Accusation! I accuse Sart of being the Assassin, and I think he used a Whitespine to commit the murder and that the Key Evidence he left behind is the Lockpicks.

@Araris Valerian 

ED1T:

If it's not this one I think my next bet would be Archer/Stone/Claw Marks, as Kas pointed out.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Amanuensis

[|TJ|]

Okay so first thoughts - 

Severe Injury without the loss of blood points towards something like broken neck or a bash to the skull. Hint on the corpse but partial but not head means neck is a pretty good guess. 

Wilderness likely points out to an animal attack imo, because iirc we were discussing it in the first round and Araris would have thought that it was the easiest way to denote it. 

Method is not any kind of weapon that causes blood loss, obviously. So pistol/axe/bow and arrow and the likes are not viable. 

So, method of murder either an animal or a non-blood-loss-causing weapon. Evidence related to an old slave living in the Wilderness [note: likely NOT Parshendi as there is the better option of Fields -> Plains -> Shattered Plains {rethinking this, I need to ask people if they think the same because I'm now thinking it's weird I am linking Parshendi to Field}]

Shardblade COULD denote it would be without bloodloss and there isn't a particular body part required specifically to be pierced to kill the person. 

Could say the same for Nightblood. 

A fang mark COULD be a partial, so not discounting Meekers. 

Hammer could case a broken neck. [I'd like to think the first thing someone thinks of when you say Hammer is a bash on the head though, so if it was Hammer, I'd think Araris would have gone for the head]

Sandling + Chull Dung/Pancakes is an option.

You know what, I'll just make a list - 

1. TKN - Shardblade + [Jam and Bread, White Clothing]
2. JNV - Hammer + Hog
3. Stick - Sandling + [Half eaten Pancakes, Chull Dung]
4. Matrim - Mistwraith + [Crem, Rotspren]
5. Archer - Parshendi (old slave, Araris could be hinting towards Parshmen -> Parshendi) + Claw Marks (partial & wilderness)

I think Archer's case is the most likely currently.