Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Shining Silhouette]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

e!fadran with that role had no reason to reveal it to us though. by revealing it to us he has made us cautious and aware that scans could hit an evil confirmed villager. shows village tendency to share important info. 

I think this definitely implies that an elim has this role. What else would be the point of giving it to a villager unless another elim had it? It would literally just be a redundant role

I agree though on V!Fadran

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I think this definitely implies that an elim has this role. What else would be the point of giving it to a villager unless another elim had it? It would literally just be a redundant role

I agree though on V!Fadran

Hence me e!"Village"!Orlok concerns  or perhaps Mat, I suppose, since he apparently doesn't have a role beyond Tunnel Constructor

13 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Are we going to try for a tie?

If @Steeldancer is now a Tie Guy, yes.

[DrakeMarshall]

Good grief, all of this role claiming is making my head spin

So many of the "confirmed" whatevers we have so far just plain aren't.

41 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

ED1T:

Still feel certain about e!Biplet. Elims could have gotten a free kill from me last night.

ED2T:

Suppose that e!Sart and/or e!JNV could work too, since I also mentioned them as potential targets. Bip more likely tho.

That is some compelling logic.

There's a bit of a dilemma here, because I have no idea if the elims tried to block me. I wouldn't have made a kill regardless.

If they decided to block you and not me, then that implies evil!Bip much more than if they tried to block both of us.

I'm torn about how to vote now.

[Ashbringer]

Tying two people and letting fate decide might be a decent option. Silho might self-pres though. But that opens up a big E-read.

[DrakeMarshall]

Figuring out that Archer was untargetable last night makes TJ's testimony a lot more believable, imo. Of course, Archer and TJ could be teammates. So that basically just doubles down on their alignments being connected. I wish we were focusing intel abilities more on already connected people but that isn't in my power to decide.

Also, are we not gonna address the elephant in the room and ask why Archer self-smoked? Isn't that an inherently somewhat suspicious thing to do?

 

...Anyways, I guess I'll sign on to seeing how a Biplet train plays out. If nothing else, Aman apparently isn't going to rest until Bip is dead  And it does seem to be the case that the elims took action to prevent Bip from dying. Although, it also seems to be the case that the elims blocked Aman the night before as well, which imo kinda weakens the whole "they were specifically saving Bip" thesis.

I kinda still want to vote Ashbringer up to verify the Thread Master claim, too. If Ashbringer survives then we get somebody who is closer than most to being confirmed village, and if Ashbringer dies then we killed an eliminator. And I think it would be better to do that sooner than later, if we're doing it at all. Would anybody possibly consider joining an Ashbringer train with me?

[StrikerEZ]

Is no one considering the idea that the elims are just devoting an entire role to ensuring that Aman doesn’t kill? Why would they trust that his stated kill targets are who he’s actually going after? It’s Aman. Regardless of Bip’s alignment, it’s in their best interests to stop Aman from being trolled and killing someone. Because Aman can always secretly change his kill target. It would be dumb for an elim team to take Aman at his word for who’s he’s gonna try and kill if his stated kill is pointed at a villager. 

[DrakeMarshall]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Is no one considering the idea that the elims are just devoting an entire role to ensuring that Aman doesn’t kill?

Tbf, I pretty much just said that I am considering that.

12 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Although, it also seems to be the case that the elims blocked Aman the night before as well, which imo kinda weakens the whole "they were specifically saving Bip" thesis.

 

[Mat]

I’d be fine going Ash, Drake, but that’s because everyone in the PoE is equally viable to me rn

I am tinfoiling Fadran pretty hard tbh and am disappointed nobody commented on that  The point about Bip is alright, too, but doesn’t necessarily make her village, just makes her less evil

[Amanuensis]

23 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Figuring out that Archer was untargetable last night makes TJ's testimony a lot more believable, imo. Of course, Archer and TJ could be teammates. So that basically just doubles down on their alignments being connected. I wish we were focusing intel abilities more on already connected people but that isn't in my power to decide.

Also, are we not gonna address the elephant in the room and ask why Archer self-smoked? Isn't that an inherently somewhat suspicious thing to do?

 

...Anyways, I guess I'll sign on to seeing how a Biplet train plays out. If nothing else, Aman apparently isn't going to rest until Bip is dead  And it does seem to be the case that the elims took action to prevent Bip from dying. Although, it also seems to be the case that the elims blocked Aman the night before as well, which imo kinda weakens the whole "they were specifically saving Bip" thesis.

I kinda still want to vote Ashbringer up to verify the Thread Master claim, too. If Ashbringer survives then we get somebody who is closer than most to being confirmed village, and if Ashbringer dies then we killed an eliminator. And I think it would be better to do that sooner than later, if we're doing it at all. Would anybody possibly consider joining an Ashbringer train with me?

It also does pose the question of why a PM Spider would need to be untargetable to actions (especially if that doesn’t apply to NKs). You may want to shoot Archer tonight and see if that fails too. If he’s village and dies, he can still use the PMs with Araris and Wizard too. If he’s elim and he survives, that means we can only vote him.

Notably, my public action was to protect Bookwyrm, though I changed more order to Troll Book during the last thirty minutes without announcing it. They knew I was Untrollable that night too, so they weren’t worried about me killing (unless they thought I was lying and secured a troll for N2, which would be a stretch) the fact they roleblocked me is also interesting. Could be as Striker says and they worried I would protect elsewhere and they didn’t want a save, but then what were the chances of me protecting Xino, their N2 NK? They didn’t even Troll Book either, according to Araris, to interfere with the Orlok scan. Perhaps hoping the possibility of interference would be enough not to clear Orlok? I don’t know. This whole situation is weird, but could be explained by the elims thinking their best course of action was to shut my roles down specifically.

Occam’s razor still points to Bip tho.

Does this also suggest v!Silho? Assuming the elims blocked my kill over Drake’s potential shot on him, as I had requested in thread?

I’m not opposed to proving Ash’s role however. I just want a productive day

ED1T:

@StrikerEZ tell me why you v!read Bip?

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer]

Elims hit TKN N2, a more likely protect target.

[The Bookwyrm]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Biplet do you have a role that would similarly cause my action to fail?

Same question to Shining Silhouette @The Bookwyrm (sorry @Shining Silhouette, my memory this game is so jumbled)

Nope.

[Amanuensis]

@Random Bystander what is the exact name of Book’s role?

[The Unknown Ajah]

 

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd have preferred to let them reveal themselves if necessary, but at this point I think it's obvious to most players, and especially the elims (especially especially if they're elim). Anyway, UPS has been a fitting term because the player in question has the same number of capitalized letters in their name

Araris and Wizard? Fair

You're not covering for TJ on N3, no. But you saw him RB Mat N2, right? Are you sure you didn't see him RB Mat N1? Because I've been RB'd N2 and N3 now. If you vouch that he didn't RB me N2 then he can't be the e!Roleblocker. You only cover his N3 action by his claim of failing to RB you. What's the name of that role again?

ED1T:

Also, Current Vote Count:

Archer (2): Shining Silhouette, |TJ|
Biplet (2): Amanuensis, Matrim's Dice
|TJ| (1): DrakeMarshall
Steeldancer (1): Archer

ED2T:

Wait! @|TJ|! No way you can RB the same player twice in a row! That would be nearly as unbalanced as Goalkeepers protecting the same player twice in a row! Maybe they had to trade off? This implies Mat is village then.

In before I'm the UPS 

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Does Biplet make memes? Idk who I associate with that these days.

A bit nervous about going out of Ocean’s Orlok’s Eight but Bip has been an asterisk for too long. Especially with the first overlap role (excluding Shining).

Other than Kas, very few people consistently make memes, honestly, I might be the closest thing.

[Shining Silhouette]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Tying two people and letting fate decide might be a decent option. Silho might self-pres though. But that opens up a big E-read.

Are you wanting to tie me? If you do, then we better do it optimally.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Does Biplet make memes? Idk who I associate with that these days.

If JNV doesn't have a quokka role I'll be very disappointed 

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

assuming 5-6 elims in a 25 member-game, weve already got 1, leaving 4-5 - 

from orloks eight, 2 from - ash, silho, archer, mat, steel

from the rest, 2-3 from - jnv, biplet, sart [assuming loads of villagers - wizard, fadran, araris, aman, drake, orlok, rby, fae]

huh, the rest is more narrow than orloks eight lmao. granted loads of village assumptions, but all reasonable to make no? anyone think anyone in the village pile is not village? biplet archer

Personally, I think Walin was evil. And maybe Dannex. The challenge of going outside of the pool is that it is technically an unknown number of elims. But the odds are better if you're pessimistic, so Biplet seems to make sense of the three. Steel

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

RandBy's in the group of just being very helpful rolewise, but yeah hasn't been scanned. Though Tani was also an RPer. Unless she just claimed that to let RandBy get away with things in which case we may have pain later.

I still want to know why Tani claimed. There had to have been a reason. 

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Also, are we not gonna address the elephant in the room and ask why Archer self-smoked? Isn't that an inherently somewhat suspicious thing to do?

There was an upside. I regret going for it now, but I can't undo it. 

36 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m not opposed to proving Ash’s role however. I just want a productive day

That seems like an RPer task. I suspect they'll turn up Thug trying to get ahead of being in the suspect pool today.

[DrakeMarshall]

53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’d be fine going Ash, Drake, but that’s because everyone in the PoE is equally viable to me rn

Mood

27 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Other than Kas, very few people consistently make memes, honestly, I might be the closest thing.

Excuse you I'll have you know I've put several memes about this game in my elim doc that totally exists PM with Fifth and Kas

Spoiler

 

50 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Does this also suggest v!Silho? Assuming the elims blocked my kill over Drake’s potential shot on him, as I had requested in thread?

I’m not opposed to proving Ash’s role however. I just want a productive day

It kind of does suggest v!Silho yeah. The big asterisk though is that again I have no idea if the elims tried to block me or not. Unfortunately. However, the elims would need to have 2 roleblocks in order to block both of us. So I think overall it does increase the chances of village!Silho. However, I think 2 elim roleblocks isn't very outlandish to consider at all, so imo it's only a slight village point in Silho's favor.

I think an Ash vote would be productive, because even if Ash survives we get a semi confirmed villager out of it which helps PoE going forwards, and if Ash dies well then that's obviously a huge score. My main concern is that if we go through with an Ash train, there wouldn't really be a lot to discuss in the thread anymore, since it would be a lynch motivated mainly by mechanics and not reads. With regards to Ash, I'm also not really sure what a villager gains out of keeping that roleclaim a secret.

Edited February 5, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Amanuensis]

Will note that at this point an Ash counterwagon being tied with Bip is better than a runaway train.

ED1T:

We can maybe keep one in the lead by a single vote for @Shining Silhouette to vote manipulate into a tie 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Archer]

3 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I think an Ash vote would be productive, because even if Ash survives we get a semi confirmed villager out of it which helps PoE going forwards, and if Ash dies well then that's obviously a huge score. My main concern is that if we go through with an Ash train, there wouldn't really be a lot to discuss in the thread anymore, since it would be a lynch motivated mainly by mechanics and not reads. With regards to Ash, I'm also not really sure what a villager gains out of keeping that roleclaim a secret.

How do you differentiate between Thug Ash tanking the exe and Thread Master Ash, unless you exe them twice, which isn't viable?

[Shining Silhouette]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

We can maybe keep one in the lead by a single vote for @Shining Silhouette to vote manipulate into a tie 

Okay, sounds good

Is roleblocking a thing during the day? How do I get immunity?

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Archer said:

How do you differentiate between Thug Ash tanking the exe and Thread Master Ash, unless you exe them twice, which isn't viable?

We’d need to do it twice yeah. Or just save time by having Drake killing him. Ash’s role has no value other than to survive the exe and he will still be able to vote once

[DrakeMarshall]

Just now, Archer said:

How do you differentiate between Thug Ash tanking the exe and Thread Master Ash, unless you exe them twice, which isn't viable?

Yeah, that's definitely a concern. I don't know There are too many things in this game where you can't be certain to cover all of the bases, so we basically have to decide which ones we are okay with not testing and which ones we do test. This is hard

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Will note that at this point an Ash counterwagon being tied with Bip is better than a runaway train.

Does the lack of a significant counterwagon currently change your read of the situation any?

Vote Tally
Biplet (6): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, |TJ|
|TJ| (1): Ashbringer
Archer (1): Shining Silhouette

[Amanuensis]

13 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Does the lack of a significant counterwagon currently change your read of the situation any?

Vote Tally
Biplet (6): Amanuensis, Araris Valerian, Archer, DrakeMarshall, Matrim's Dice, |TJ|
|TJ| (1): Ashbringer
Archer (1): Shining Silhouette

Not really

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Tbf, I pretty much just said that I am considering that.

 

You know. Maybe that’s what initially inspired the idea and I just forgot.

@Amanuensis I village read Bip because of mostly meta reasons. The one thing I know about her is that she gets very excited about being an elim when she gets it. Despite how busy she is. Usually, at least. She has been very busy this week, and perhaps she is more active in the doc. But in terms of in game things, her posts seem more like how I read her village tone. She’s usually more…sure of herself, I’d say, when she’s an elim. Even when she’s pretending to be unsure. I feel like she would spend more time when she does happen to be on actively defending herself if she was an elim.

[Amanuensis]

21 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

You know. Maybe that’s what initially inspired the idea and I just forgot.

@Amanuensis I village read Bip because of mostly meta reasons. The one thing I know about her is that she gets very excited about being an elim when she gets it. Despite how busy she is. Usually, at least. She has been very busy this week, and perhaps she is more active in the doc. But in terms of in game things, her posts seem more like how I read her village tone. She’s usually more…sure of herself, I’d say, when she’s an elim. Even when she’s pretending to be unsure. I feel like she would spend more time when she does happen to be on actively defending herself if she was an elim.

Even with her lack of vote engagement? I can’t remember the last time she took part in an execution and I’m of the opinion that you, Bookwyrm, Danex, Walin, and Steel are all village, which explains a lack of necessity for participation.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I kinda still want to vote Ashbringer up to verify the Thread Master claim, too. If Ashbringer survives then we get somebody who is closer than most to being confirmed village, and if Ashbringer dies then we killed an eliminator. And I think it would be better to do that sooner than later, if we're doing it at all. Would anybody possibly consider joining an Ashbringer train with me?

Easier to have Randby check, or shoot Ash and have Orlok check if that doesn't work. Double exe is unproductive and if you/Aman are going to shoot him you might as well just do so.

I only had the one role.