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Oh, well that's something.

I've come to the conclusion that there are way too many conditional probabilities for my frail human brain to sort out by sheer intuition, so I've resorted to math.

This cannot possibly go wrong, because math is never wrong :D

I will keep you apprised of anything I might find.

Edit: For the record, I am still a pacifist.

Edited by DrakeMarshall
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Rule Clarifications:

Spoiler

Keep up the good memes :ph34r: 

  • Kas and Fifth are only valid vote targets at parity.
  • The wincons are complete. 
  • Flipless implies no roles and no alignments.
  • Survivals, if any, will be written up in the standard way.

Player List: 

Spoiler

1. @Ashbringer as Ash the Amateur, a RPing college student
2. @The Wandering Wizard as Emma, twin of Wiz, corruptor of all, avatar of the Kaos.
3. @Steeldancer as Steel
4. @Channelknight Fadran as Fadran the Guy From the Fellowship of the Thing Who Has Never Done This Before.
5. @StrikerEZ as Kjell, an overworked, stressed out man who really needs a break
6. @xinoehp512 as xinoehp513, a newbie to the forum that is very puzzled that his name was already taken.
7. @JNV as JNV
8. @Matrim's Dice as Matrim's Dice
9. @Biplet as Biplet
10. @Araris Valerian as Metalcognition, definitely not an imposter of the founder of SE.
11. @Devotary of Spontaneity as Cecelia, Devona, and Saponin
12. @Amanuensis as Adavantos
13. @The Known Novel as TKN (The Known (and Totally Kool) Novel)
14. @The Bookwyrm as Bookwyrm, the SE deprived Sharder who's doing this even though it might be a bad idea.
15. @Tani as Mehelin, a random bystander who isn't Randby.
16. @Archer as Archer, a player that's hellbent on PM spidering.
17. @Walin as Walin, the consistently befuddled and absent SE-er
18. @|TJ| as mad watcher
19. @dannnnnex as Danex
20. @DrakeMarshall as Drake
21. @Orlok Tsubodai as Orlok (he's Orlok right? I think?)
22. @Random Bystander as Random Bystander
23. @Sart as Sart
24. @Shining Silhouette as Silho, bootleg King's Wit
25. @The last Fae in the Woods  as The last Fae in the Woods

 

Edited by Fifth Scholar
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Just now, Ashbringer said:

Down to 15 players. Idk how many starting elims we expect, but there being 6 wouldn't be too outlandish. So 10-5 at worst.

Hey @Fifth Scholar - do we get told when Kas and Fifth become valid exe targets? Someone seemed to say that earlier and idk if that's true or not.

Also who killed Shining

I count a full 25 :D

I mean, you'll be told in the sense that if one of us gets exed at parity, the game will end, and if we're exed not at parity, it won't :P 

A just question, my liege :ph34r: 

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Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

I mean, you'll be told in the sense that if one of us gets exed at parity, the game will end, and if we're exed not at parity, it won't :P 

Aw. Now I want to go look for that.

...

... hypothetically, would votes on you only show up in official vote counts when at parity? :ph34r:

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1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Aw. Now I want to go look for that.

...

... hypothetically, would votes on you only show up in official vote counts when at parity? :ph34r:

I think we would have noticed if we were at parity with fifteen plus players that count for parity :P. Also, we would have noticed if the game ended. Afaik >>

Options today are Ash, Sart, Bip, with a chance at Drake? Depending what the Steel scan was of course.

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Hmm. Fifth Scholar

Can I have a vote count please? :ph34r:

xD

Idk why you think there’s any chance of parity though

I guess your point is that you want to see if we’ll be able to check for it by seeing what happens when it’s definitely not parity.

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Hypothesis: GM vote counts can be used as a litmus test to see if we are at parity.

Experimentation: Vote on Fifth Scholar and ask for a vote count.

Results: Fifth posts a vote count showing him as, quote "The Esteemed co-GM, Branch-Sorrow Mantled, Light-Death Garbed, Stalwart-Warder, Hordemaster-Bane", being voted on by Ashbringer.

Conclusions: Either we are at parity or Fifth is a Troll.

 

Fifth Scholar Sart

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okay hmm. I got a different type of result today. 

n1, n2 - you roleblocked x

n3 - your action failed

n4 - you attempted to roleblock sart

i asked for clarification and fifth just repeated that i attempted to roleblock sart

i reckon i lost a coin toss against another rber. 

edit: hey why haven't we had an rper copy sarts role?

Edited by |TJ|
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8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

okay hmm. I got a different type of result today. 

n1, n2 - you roleblocked x

n3 - your action failed

n4 - you attempted to roleblock sart

i asked for clarification and fifth just repeated that i attempted to roleblock sart

i reckon i lost a coin toss against another rber. 

edit: hey why haven't we had an rper copy sarts role?


Interestingly enough, I ‘attempted’ to Troll Sart last night. Hoped he might have been the e!Roleblocker.
 

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It feels much more likely that the elims killed Randby. Are you saying that was you?

I’m suggesting Drake is an e!Coinshot. RandBy was the NK.

Edited by Amanuensis
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