Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Biplet]

This is very convoluted and heavily policed. It's uh... I don't wanna say a bad vibe but it certainly is a weird vibe. If I vote in self preservation, I look bad. If I don't, I might die. Ash seems unconcerned with his possible death, which ???? okay. Feels like I'm damned if I do damned if I don't and I don't like the corner I've been backed into for the sake of a scan, because even if I vote to be cleared by the scan and the tie holds, there's a 50/50 shot I die, and what does that do for me? Maybe I should put the village above all else but does it help us to exe me?? We lose another villager and the elims get one step closer to parity. So far the only conf!elim we have dead is Tani, because of the claim, and we have no idea how close we are to parity.

Maybe it's just worth it to not vote and let the dice roll and hope it gets us to the right spot.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Just now, Biplet said:

This is very convoluted and heavily policed. It's uh... I don't wanna say a bad vibe but it certainly is a weird vibe. If I vote in self preservation, I look bad. If I don't, I might die. Ash seems unconcerned with his possible death, which ???? okay. Feels like I'm damned if I do damned if I don't and I don't like the corner I've been backed into for the sake of a scan, because even if I vote to be cleared by the scan and the tie holds, there's a 50/50 shot I die, and what does that do for me? Maybe I should put the village above all else but does it help us to exe me?? We lose another villager and the elims get one step closer to parity. So far the only conf!elim we have dead is Tani, because of the claim, and we have no idea how close we are to parity.

 

Well uh, Ash is unconcerned because he supposedly can't be exed by the thread

I would prefer a different tied person than you, but it's not quite up to me if I want to help preserve the tie.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Then we need @Araris Valerian and @Archer on one vote side trains, @Ashbringer on Bip, @Steeldancer on Bip, and @The Wandering Wizard on Ash.

If we still have two elims in the group, we know TJ and Archer are village. If there are zero, we know they’re paired.

@Shining Silhouette can move a random one vote to himself.

How does this account for worlds where the two new voters (yourself and Steel(?)) are not confirmed villagers? Ideally, we need our voting set to be a subset of those who voted last time, or a superset with the addition of one or two players. Swapping players in risks e.g. losing one eliminator vote from TJ not voting, but bringing one in because you are now voting, and giving us no ability to distinguish between you being an eliminator or the eliminator being one of the the rest of the group.

[Kasimir]

Hi -

To anyone reading this thread who is neither Removed nor a player nor in the Dead-Spec Doc:

If you're interested in pinch-hitting this game, please PM me or Fifth or DM us on Discord! We have a second request for a pinch-hitter.

[Amanuensis]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

we dont wanna check steel as well? tie can be achieved with 3-2 for ash with this role so we can test steel too.

I forgot about Steel, you're right.

6 minutes ago, Biplet said:

This is very convoluted and heavily policed. It's uh... I don't wanna say a bad vibe but it certainly is a weird vibe. If I vote in self preservation, I look bad. If I don't, I might die. Ash seems unconcerned with his possible death, which ???? okay. Feels like I'm damned if I do damned if I don't and I don't like the corner I've been backed into for the sake of a scan, because even if I vote to be cleared by the scan and the tie holds, there's a 50/50 shot I die, and what does that do for me? Maybe I should put the village above all else but does it help us to exe me?? We lose another villager and the elims get one step closer to parity. So far the only conf!elim we have dead is Tani, because of the claim, and we have no idea how close we are to parity.

Maybe it's just worth it to not vote and let the dice roll and hope it gets us to the right spot.

Hm.

I'm trying to figure out who we could replace you with. I'd volunteer, but...

TBF if you are village and do die, you can continue to help us solve the game and still vote again

3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

How does this account for worlds where the two new voters (yourself and Steel(?)) are not confirmed villagers? Ideally, we need our voting set to be a subset of those who voted last time, or a superset with the addition of one or two players. Swapping players in risks e.g. losing one eliminator vote from TJ not voting, but bringing one in because you are now voting, and giving us no ability to distinguish between you being an eliminator or the eliminator being one of the the rest of the group.

We already fixed that, sorry.

ED1T:

To clarify, @Orlok Tsubodai, the voters last tie were Archer, TJ, Ash, Mat, Drake, Silho, Steel, and TKN. TKN can't vote again and we want to remove TJ and Archer, leaving Ash, Mat, Drake, Silho, and Steel as the voters. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Biplet]

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Well uh, Ash is unconcerned because he supposedly can't be exed by the thread

Oh that's cool, so it really is at the point where all the pressure is on me because it doesn't matter if he loses the vote huh?

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm.

I'm trying to figure out who we could replace you with. I'd volunteer, but...

TBF if you are village and do die, you can continue to help us solve the game and still vote again

I mean it's not like I've been much help in the first place This game is being mechanically solved far beyond what I'm capable of figuring out and it really has just come to the point that we do the mechanically Optimal Thing decided by a group of a few people. Which I guess is the most ideal way to solve a game, but I guess... I don't know. I don't know where I was going with this.

I yield to the vote for now. Come what may

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Oh that's cool, so it really is at the point where all the pressure is on me because it doesn't matter if he loses the vote huh?

I mean it's not like I've been much help in the first place This game is being mechanically solved far beyond what I'm capable of figuring out and it really has just come to the point that we do the mechanically Optimal Thing decided by a group of a few people. Which I guess is the most ideal way to solve a game, but I guess... I don't know. I don't know where I was going with this.

I yield to the vote for now. Come what may

TBH I wish there was another way then mechanic stuff to figure this out, but Tani was a lucky shot and dead lead, and the elims appear to have been blending well. I have good feelings about almost everyone, and conflicting bad feelings about half of those, so I kinda don't know what else to do and it'd be a waste to waste Tie Guy.

Hopefully if this uncovers at least one elim, we'll finally have a proper lead to pursue

[Ashbringer]

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

This is very convoluted and heavily policed. It's uh... I don't wanna say a bad vibe but it certainly is a weird vibe. If I vote in self preservation, I look bad. If I don't, I might die. Ash seems unconcerned with his possible death, which ???? okay. Feels like I'm damned if I do damned if I don't and I don't like the corner I've been backed into for the sake of a scan, because even if I vote to be cleared by the scan and the tie holds, there's a 50/50 shot I die, and what does that do for me? Maybe I should put the village above all else but does it help us to exe me?? We lose another villager and the elims get one step closer to parity. So far the only conf!elim we have dead is Tani, because of the claim, and we have no idea how close we are to parity.

Maybe it's just worth it to not vote and let the dice roll and hope it gets us to the right spot.

I'm unconcerned because I'm exe immune, which the village has graciously volunteered to verify 

I... do feel this game has Mayoring potential. That was my initial reaction to my role, somewhat, and many contingent alignment scans and redundancies can do that. Especially Tie Guy and Pinchhitter. And Aman getting cleared D2. 

In general, through the patented 'I Know I'm Village' principle, acting in self-preservation isn't AI. You're free to argue your case or vote to save yourself. There's also the argument to not self-pres for the sake of Tie Guy, but from the V!Bip perspective, it's a question of whether risking exeing you, a villager, is worth getting that? And that's up to you. We're not going to get many conf!Elims anyway.

Also there's a few other people we've got our eyes on. Shining, for instance. Tie Guy Tie isn't locked into me and you.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Amanuensis, glad to hear it.
 

For the record, and to set expectations, the second pinch hitter request is from me. Work has become much more intense than expected, and I’m regularly doing 12 hour days and weekends, so just can’t devote meaningful time to the thread with any reliability.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Honestly I'd rather have the tie guy be with Shining and Ash rather than Ash and Bip.

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Amanuensis, glad to hear it.
 

For the record, and to set expectations, the second pinch hitter request is from me. Work has become much more intense than expected, and I’m regularly doing 12 hour days and weekends, so just can’t devote meaningful time to the thread with any reliability.

Ah, shame  I hope work calms down for you in the foreseeable future. Sending all the mental energy I can o7

1 minute ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Honestly I'd rather have the tie guy be with Shining and Ash rather than Ash and Bip.

My worry is that incentivizes Silho to self-pres with his manip. I don't want to risk him using that as an excuse. With him not at risk, the only reason he'd break the tie with his power is because he's evil.

[Ookla of Colors]

3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Amanuensis, glad to hear it.
 

For the record, and to set expectations, the second pinch hitter request is from me. Work has become much more intense than expected, and I’m regularly doing 12 hour days and weekends, so just can’t devote meaningful time to the thread with any reliability.

youknow you could just die like me

we dead people don't actually have to do as much as you living people

[Ashbringer]

E!Shining is more risky because they might not be lying about Vote Moving. But my Veteran anti-vote is another reason I don't like that claim. I'm essentially a self-target Soother, Striker was a limited vote doubler, and Shining is more powerful than a Rioter? We both have other roles and maybe Shining doesn't but... still. Weird.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

My worry is that incentivizes Silho to self-pres with his manip. I don't want to risk him using that as an excuse. With him not at risk, the only reason he'd break the tie with his power is because he's evil.

Yeah, I suppose so. Though if he agreed to the tie and agreed to stay in it, woulding breaking it still point to E!Silho?

[Mat]

4 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Honestly I'd rather have the tie guy be with Shining and Ash rather than Ash and Bip.

It wouldn’t be that hard to switch, would it? I’d be fine with that. This way we could get Bip into the tie if we want to check her, yeah?

Edit: And yeah breaking the tie with manip is pretty sus so if the other is Ash it’s not really worth it for e!Shining imo

Edited February 6, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Biplet]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I... do feel this game has Mayoring potential.

Yeah I think that's what I was getting at.

I think I might be letting emotions get the better of me.

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Yeah, I suppose so. Though if he agreed to the tie and agreed to stay in it, woulding breaking it still point to E!Silho?

At that point it would be moot. Either way e!Silho intervening means he's cooked.

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

Yeah I think that's what I was getting at.

I think I might be letting emotions get the better of me.

I just want to say that at this point, the main reason I don't trust you is the fact that elims saved you last night. I can't just take your word for it, sadly.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Wandering Wizard]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

It wouldn’t be that hard to switch, would it? I’d be fine with that. This way we could get Bip into the tie if we want to check her, yeah?

Well the thing is that we are trying to have a control group and by adding extra people we break that control group. So it's better, if the lynch goes on Ash that Bip doesn't die and can possibly be scanned. 

@Random Bystander, you going to vote someone so you can scan them?

[|TJ|]

if i wanted to replace biplet, it would be with either sart or jnv imo. sart has no accounted actions. apparent jnv has been pming but the poe of non orloks eight other than biplet is jnv and sart. 

agreed shinings claim is weird given the fact that they didnt seem sure what or how exactly their vote manipulation worked at a point i think as late as either last cycle or the cycle before that. 

can confirm ashs veteran claim. he can confirm that the flavor is "youre veteran, youre too respected, people dont realy want to vote you out so you get a minus 1 on your total vote count".

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Well the thing is that we are trying to have a control group and by adding extra people we break that control group. So it's better, if the lynch goes on Ash that Bip doesn't die and can possibly be scanned. 

@Random Bystander, you going to vote someone so you can scan them?

He could maybe scan Bip and we could vote out Fae? 

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

if i wanted to replace biplet, it would be with either sart or jnv imo. sart has no accounted actions. apparent jnv has been pming but the poe of non orloks eight other than biplet is jnv and sart. 

agreed shinings claim is weird given the fact that they didnt seem sure what or how exactly their vote manipulation worked at a point i think as late as either last cycle or the cycle before that. 

can confirm ashs veteran claim. he can confirm that the flavor is "youre veteran, youre too respected, people dont realy want to vote you out so you get a minus 1 on your total vote count".

I wouldn't hate Sart, I guess?

Edited February 6, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Archer]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

E!Shining is more risky because they might not be lying about Vote Moving. But my Veteran anti-vote is another reason I don't like that claim. I'm essentially a self-target Soother, Striker was a limited vote doubler, and Shining is more powerful than a Rioter? We both have other roles and maybe Shining doesn't but... still. Weird.

I wonder if vet has a relationship to Araris' mystery added vote. 

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

Yeah, I suppose so. Though if he agreed to the tie and agreed to stay in it, woulding breaking it still point to E!Silho?

I'd rather take Ash out of the tie because then e!Silh is more incentivized to act. The elims can afford to do nothing to a e!ThugAsh-v!X matchup. 

I'm cool sitting this one out. I understand the reasoning. 

Biplet 

[Biplet]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I just want to say that at this point, the main reason I don't trust you is the fact that elims saved you last night. I can't just take your word for it, sadly.

Again on this. Saved me?? They've blocked you twice now, right? Why is it different now that I'm the one who lived? Does this not make me a prime misexe target, taking the pressure off elims for yet another day?

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Again on this. Saved me?? They've blocked you twice now, right? Why is it different now that I'm the one who lived? Does this not make me a prime misexe target, taking the pressure off elims for yet another day?

Them blocking my untrollable protection N2 does not equal them blocking my Troll Kill. The first stops me from stopping the NK, the second stops me from killing you.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Shining Silhouette]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Shining Silhouette maybe you should just move a vote that doesn’t affect the wagons. We need to make sure this goes through

Ok, which do you want me to move?

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

silho, you don’t lose your vote when you move another, right?

No, I still have my own vote

4 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

agreed shinings claim is weird given the fact that they didnt seem sure what or how exactly their vote manipulation worked at a point i think as late as either last cycle or the cycle before that. 

Hey!

I knew how it worked, it's just I wasn't really thinking about the dead chaps that what they had to say for it

[Biplet]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Them blocking my Untrollable protection N2 does not equal them blocking my Trolled Kill. The first stops me from stopping the NK, the second stops me from killing you.

This comes back around to them having to assume you were telling the truth when you said you were going to kill me