During the Lost Metal, is Todium's forces on a Spren Conquest/Genocide in Shadesmar?

[Heretic333]

It just occurred to me that something very decisive happened on Roshar during ERA 2 during the SLA timeskip.  Hoid is in Wax's employ for years, and its generally understood that Roshar is currently hard to get to. I cant remember all the reasons except for distance, but I thought it was mentioned somewhere that there were other reasons access to Roshar was limited as of The Lost Metal. If someone  has the reference please let me know.

Therefore.. I bring you these theories about Roshar. (We know Era 2 is SLA 5-8)

1. A new agreement was made after something unknown happened during the Contest of Champions (book 5), and it involved Hoid being exiled, and perhaps even silenced to a certain extent. (Is it just me or doesn't he not seem like himself on Scadrial? Very quiet and unintrusive. Virtually no counsel)
2. The new agreement made Todium retreat from Roshar.. BUT NOT SHADESMAR!!

Guys... what if Todium was forced to retreat... but he brought all of his Fused to Shadesmar?

As of the Cosmere timeline in The Lost Metal.. what if Todium is having a crazy freaking Spren conquest with all of his forces in Shadesmar?? Could this be what's happening during Era 2? What if the fused are razing spren cities to the ground..and establishing a beachhead at the perpendicularities? 

We have seen fused in Shadesmar before... Is there a limit to how much he can send?

I could see Shallan and Morase joining forces again, but only against Odium.

Then Adolin becomes honor.

Because of this Shallan becomes a GB worldhopper double agent for Honor and Roshar..

and Lopen saves the world and walks into a Bar with Wayne on the other side. 

Ok ok. real talk though. I think Todium is going to crack down on Shadesmar. 

[trav]

Cultivations Perpendicularity is still besieged and Honors is still unstable or does not exist at all. This would be the easiest explanation. Or someone got shattered Ambition style.

[Heretic333]

15 minutes ago, trav said:

Cultivations Perpendicularity is still besieged and Honors is still unstable or does not exist at all. This would be the easiest explanation. Or someone got shattered Ambition style.

Can you imagine? We think this great victory happens against the shard of Odium... only for the last chapter of the book to show the entire force of the fused absolutely demolishing cities and committing spren genocide or something like that. 

[Zapata]

2 hours ago, trav said:

Cultivations Perpendicularity is still besieged and Honors is still unstable or does not exist at all. This would be the easiest explanation. Or someone got shattered Ambition style.

Still, something would have to happen to make the Oathgates dangerous/inaccessible. Sja-Anat Enlightenment, total destruction, or maybe the Radiants just ended travel through the CR again.

[alder24]

Shadesmar is Roshar's CR, it is part of Roshar, so as long as agreement forces Odium out of Roshar, he will be out of Shadesmar as well.

But you miss the point in RoW - Odium can be out, but his Fused and Everstorm will remain on Roshar, he can't take them away anymore. Fused can simply occupy Shadesmar without Odium's order.

[offer]

For the discussion the reference to Roshar is at chapter 39:

Quote

"Moonlight" the woman said after a glance, "You have to read this. Travel to Bjerdal has been completely upset. That`s four primary systems we can`t access without extreme danger, if you count Roshar[...]"

Another way to understand it I thought of now is that the travel is unavailable to the Ghostbloods specifically - maybe the radiants have won, they control roshar and after Shallan`s arc in RoW they stop any known GB agent trying to pass.

[trav]

An ongoing war would also mean it is not safe to visit Roshar.

[Kuldak]

I believe the agreement between Dalinar and Odium was that even if Dalinar wins, Odium would only retreat to territories he currently controlled, giving up Alethkar and Herdaz, and telling the singers to stop further expansion/aggression. Depending on how Taravangian wants to interpret that, with his forces holding the perpendicularity and the areas around it, he may consider that territory he controls, and thus, win or lose, he would control Cultivation's perpendicularity.

As far as the oathgates go, even if the Radiants are allowing relatively open travel from Shadesmar through them, each trip would have to be facilitated by a Radiant, and the Ghostbloods may not like having to effectively go through customs if they want to enter Roshar that way, especially since last we heard Shallan was planning on hunting them down.

[+Oltux72]

On 21.12.2022 at 5:31 PM, offer said:

For the discussion the reference to Roshar is at chapter 39:

Another way to understand it I thought of now is that the travel is unavailable to the Ghostbloods specifically - maybe the radiants have won, they control roshar and after Shallan`s arc in RoW they stop any known GB agent trying to pass.

I am sorry, but that is extremely convoluted an explanation. It would require the access to three other systems, which the Radiants cannot reach due to their Spren, to be cut off for other reasons and recently so.

On 22.12.2022 at 1:57 PM, trav said:

An ongoing war would also mean it is not safe to visit Roshar.

Yes, but the same applies as to explaining why the access to Roshar is curtailed due to a victory in war. In fact, this explanation is even worse by far, because you now need to explain why Hoid has been spending years as Waxillium's coach man away from the war.

 

On 21.12.2022 at 0:17 PM, Heretic333 said:

Guys... what if Todium was forced to retreat... but he brought all of his Fused to Shadesmar?

 

As of the Cosmere timeline in The Lost Metal.. what if Todium is having a crazy freaking Spren conquest with all of his forces in Shadesmar?? Could this be what's happening during Era 2? What if the fused are razing spren cities to the ground..and establishing a beachhead at the perpendicularities? 

 

Again, unless it is an incredible accident that access to many worlds has just become much harder for independent reasons, just as a Desolation began on Roshar, you need to find a common explanation.

Quote

Ok ok. real talk though. I think Todium is going to crack down on Shadesmar. 

I am afraid you are thinking way to small. This looks like the restrictions on Fused leaving the Rosharan system have been broken. In fact, even Odium may have been freed. The war Hoid had been preparing for on Roshar has begun. Coalitions of Shards are clashing their forces.

[offer]

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

I am sorry, but that is extremely convoluted an explanation. It would require the access to three other systems, which the Radiants cannot reach due to their Spren, to be cut off for other reasons and recently so.

On 22.12.2022 at 2:57 PM, trav said:

This is what I assumed. Honestly, untill your comment I haven`t thought of the idea that the systems are blocked for the same reason. 

I assumed that each planet had its own problems that prohibited travel there and maybe there is a reason those problems happened in around the same time (i.e. shards preparing/ making defences against Odium/Autonomy) but there is no direct connection between the different planets.

Thinking back, I probably assumed that because we haven`t seen in the cosmere massive effects between different planets so I assumed it hasn`t happend. But your idea of single cause is also very possibe.

[Frustration]

On 12/22/2022 at 5:57 AM, trav said:

An ongoing war would also mean it is not safe to visit Roshar.

It's not ongoing. Brandon said SA 5 will have a satisfying conclusion.

[alder24]

4 hours ago, Frustration said:

It's not ongoing. Brandon said SA 5 will have a satisfying conclusion.

Satisfying doesn't mean there is no war, it might mean rules of war has changed dramatically. Freeing Odium would change the war and still be satisfying as an ending.

And if we gonna quote Brandon, he also said that he decided to switch Odium for Taravangian, because Odium already lost several times and he no longer felt like a threat - first time in OB with Dalinar and Thaylen, second in RoW with Kaladin and the Tower. Why would he place Taravangian as the new threat if the very first thing he would do, would be to lose again, like old Odium? I predict that Odium will score a big win in SA5 and Coalition might achieve some pyrrhic victory at best. 

[Frustration]

9 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Satisfying doesn't mean there is no war, it might mean rules of war has changed dramatically. Freeing Odium would change the war and still be satisfying as an ending.

And if we gonna quote Brandon, he also said that he decided to switch Odium for Taravangian, because Odium already lost several times and he no longer felt like a threat - first time in OB with Dalinar and Thaylen, second in RoW with Kaladin and the Tower. Why would he place Taravangian as the new threat if the very first thing he would do, would be to lose again, like old Odium? I predict that Odium will score a big win in SA5 and Coalition might achieve some pyrrhic victory at best. 

SA 5 is the finale of this arc. 6-10 could be considered a different series.