The Nuke Imbalance of Scadrial

[JustQuestin2004]

So we know that electrified Ettmetal + a little bit of Trellium = A bloody nuke.

Do the Southerners have any Trellium to make nukes of their own? Because as far as I'm aware the Set were the only ones that had any and most of it is in the hands of the Basin now because of Wax and Wayne. But the Malwish wouldn't have any due to not interacting with the Set much if at all.

Because if not that means that the Northeners have the Arms advantage, which might be what the Spy-Thriller Cold War focused plot of Era 3 could be about. A young Nicroburst Terris Geek Girl trying to stop a Southener Mistborn or whatever from stealing the Basin's stockpile of Trellium and making their own Nukes.

Probably not what's going to happen at all but you never know. Could be a cool reflection of Era 1 with TFE's original plot of 'Steal the Atium'. Except the Protagonist is on the Empire's side.

What do you think?

[StanLemon]

Oh after this last book I fully expect Era 3 to be a full on Cold War environment for sure

[JustQuestin2004]

10 hours ago, StanLemon said:

Oh after this last book I fully expect Era 3 to be a full on Cold War environment for sure

Maybe the leaders of the Southerners get manipulated by the new Trell in an attempt to start Scadrial's first World War?

What would stop Trell from just making a really big Nuke in the middle of nowhere and igniting the atmosphere, because if Autonomy really wants to destroy Scadrial then nukes make that really easy.

Or perhaps whatever happens in Stormlight 5 will make Autonomy decide that she needs Scadrial around more. Perhaps something to do with Odium? Because while they may have briefly worked together in the past that may not be the case now.

[Frustration]

Just now, JustQuestin2004 said:

What would stop Trell from just making a really big Nuke in the middle of nowhere and igniting the atmosphere, because if Autonomy really wants to destroy Scadrial then nukes make that really easy.

 

It would be easier to detonate a bomb on every city ten times over than to ignite the atmosphere. 

[JustQuestin2004]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Frustrated. said:

It would be easier to detonate a bomb on every city ten times over than to ignite the atmosphere. 

Yeah but that didn't go so well, and a lot of the element of surprise is gone because she and her machinations are now known and can be anticipated. Because the Basin has just learned almost first-hand how dangerous these she and the nukes are, so they will definitely try to prevent another close call.

Also most of the Set is either arrested or dead. So she'll need to make a new group again from scratch, which will likely be a pain since people are going to be on the lookout for anymore espionage. Cause it's the Cold War, that's people did back then.

Plus Harmony said that the Trell-Bomb at the end might have ignited the atmosphere if it went off properly. Or something along those lines.

[alder24]

3 hours ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

Plus Harmony said that the Trell-Bomb at the end might have ignited the atmosphere if it went off properly. Or something along those lines.

Igniting atmosphere of an planet means fusing its atoms with one another accros whole planet, like in the core of an star or in thermonuclear bomb. That is jus not physically possible, as it was known issue before first even nuclear test, scientists made calculations and it just shown that it can't be done. The atmosphere is not dense enough for it, it composed of heavier elements, that requires even more energy to fuse, the energy losses to radiation always overcompensate the gains due to the reactions, and the temprature that is require is jus too high to reach and sustain in whole atmosphere.

So yes, Harmony said that, but it's not possible. He probably was too panicked to realised that.

Edited December 3, 2022 by alder24

[JustQuestin2004]

6 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Igniting atmosphere of an planet means fusing its atoms with one another accros whole planet, like in the core of an star or in thermonuclear bomb. That is jus not physically possible, as it was known issue before first even nuclear test, scientists made calculations and it just shown that it can't be done. The atmosphere is not dense enough for it, it composed of heavier elements, that requires even more energy to fuse, the energy losses to radiation always overcompensate the gains due to the reactions, and the temprature that is require is jus too high to reach and sustain in whole atmosphere.

So yes, Harmony said that, but it's not possible. He probably was too panicked to realised that.

Okay, you seem to be smarter than me so I'll believe it.

Plus neither Harmony nor Autonomy knew everything about how the bomb would work, so chances are that it was just guesswork.

So maybe Trell will come back in Era 3 to take advantage of the Cold War tensions to try and ignite that instead. 

[+Oltux72]

On 2.12.2022 at 10:56 AM, JustQuestin2004 said:

Probably not what's going to happen at all but you never know. Could be a cool reflection of Era 1 with TFE's original plot of 'Steal the Atium'. Except the Protagonist is on the Empire's side.

What do you think?

If your tech level is at 1960 or so, you will discover nuclear fission and fusion. If that is the issue, they will just build nuclear weapons.

[JustQuestin2004]

21 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

If your tech level is at 1960 or so, you will discover nuclear fission and fusion. If that is the issue, they will just build nuclear weapons.

They might. But not all tech is equally developed. They might not discover it by Era 3 due to having no need of it. 

Nukes were invented in our world due to a second World War, but Scadrial hasn't even had one yet. So the circumstances that would encourage the creation of such a weapon, especially since they already have a similar thing, wouldn't be the same.

Still they might invent regular nukes or they might not. We'll just have to see.

Edited December 6, 2022 by JustQuestin2004

[+Oltux72]

2 minutes ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

They might. But not all tech is equally developed. They might not discover it by Era 3 due to having no need of it. 

But they would have a need for them.

2 minutes ago, JustQuestin2004 said:

Nukes were invented in our world due to a second World War, but Scadrial hasn't even had one yet. So the circumstances that would encourage the creation of such a weapon, especially since they already have a similar thing, wouldn't be the same.

Still they might invent regular nukes or they might not. We'll just have to see.

Nukes were. Nuclear fission and fusion were not. As soon as you know about fission you can predict that a nuclear bomb is possible. That is exactly what scientists did in 1941. They are at a stage where they already have the technology to build a mass spectrometer. They already know or will very soon know about isotopes. If you have a cyclotron, which they can build, you can build a fusor. And then at the latest you will discover free neutrons. And there we go.

Yes, science and technology can progress at different paths or speeds, but not totally independently. So you can delay nukes by a few decades. But not forever.

[VirtuousTraveller]

On 12/2/2022 at 10:37 PM, JustQuestin2004 said:

What would stop Trell from just making a really big Nuke in the middle of nowhere and igniting the atmosphere, because if Autonomy really wants to destroy Scadrial then nukes make that really easy.

While I think TLM did a less than stellar job articulating Autonomy's motivations and behaviors, I would say that Autonomy wouldn't just unilaterally destroy Scadrial because that would be a violation of the people who live there's autonomy and agency.  It would be ok if Autonomy could influence/manipulate the people into destroying themselves.  Maybe?

Also, was Trell an actual Avatar/splinter in this book, or was it specifically Autonomy/Bavadin that was meddling directly?

[JustQuestin2004]

5 hours ago, VirtuousTraveller said:

Also, was Trell an actual Avatar/splinter in this book, or was it specifically Autonomy/Bavadin that was meddling directly?

It seemed to be a little of column A and a little of column B.

Telsin was supposed to become the Avatar, Trell, but Autonomy was also there pulling the strings. 

Remember Avatars aren't independent Splinters like Spren or Seons, they seem to be more like Shardic Handpuppets.

[alder24]

5 hours ago, VirtuousTraveller said:

While I think TLM did a less than stellar job articulating Autonomy's motivations and behaviors, I would say that Autonomy wouldn't just unilaterally destroy Scadrial because that would be a violation of the people who live there's autonomy and agency.  It would be ok if Autonomy could influence/manipulate the people into destroying themselves.  Maybe?

Also, was Trell an actual Avatar/splinter in this book, or was it specifically Autonomy/Bavadin that was meddling directly?

The Autonomy had advanced army right outside of perpendicularity, ready to destroy Scadrial. Telsin plan to blow up Elendel only put that on temporary hold, as she promised Autonomy, that she would control Scadrial after that. Ironically Autonomy seams to be control freak - managing Set, Telsin, as well as architectural and philosophical growth of Bilming according to her vision of how people's autonomy should look like (the same as everywhere else under her control). Scadrial fast technological advancement was direct threat to her plans for Cosmere, so that's why she decided to destroy it.

[+Harrycrapper]

On 12/2/2022 at 2:56 AM, JustQuestin2004 said:

Do the Southerners have any Trellium to make nukes of their own?

The Set were operating the airship that Wax allowed the Malwish to use for their return trip in BoM. That's the only place I can think of where some might have been left that they would have had access to that we saw on screen. There's no telling if they ever had secret dealings with the Set in the intervening years between BoM and TLM. 

[JustQuestin2004]

47 minutes ago, Harrycrapper said:

The Set were operating the airship that Wax allowed the Malwish to use for their return trip in BoM. That's the only place I can think of where some might have been left that they would have had access to that we saw on screen. There's no telling if they ever had secret dealings with the Set in the intervening years between BoM and TLM. 

Considering that even in the main headquarters of the Set in Bilming, no one had any Medallions whatsoever, just Hemalurgic Spikes, is a pretty clear indicator, to me at least, that the Southerners were no friends of the Set.

Edit:

To expand on this, what I'm saying is, the only way the Southerners could have gotten Trellium, to me at least, is if they traded with the Set, and the only thing the Set would have wanted was their technology, and we didn't see any of that in the Set's possession. 

So yeah I don't think they have Trellium unless Kelsier gave it to them, which he might have.

Edited December 15, 2022 by JustQuestin2004