149 posts in this topic

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So in general as I told Stick, I'm just not a fan of both her approach and Araris's so I do feel that there's something weird about that train, and I'm currently locating the weirdness in <Stick, Araris.>

That makes a lot more sense. I need to get used to the new overall SE meta :blink:

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14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bro rn you wanna vote everyone .__.

I won’t vote you or Archer or JNV or probably some other people

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The strongest case I can make for E!Bookwyrm is functionally:

On 11/22/2022 at 2:26 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said:

I haven't read all of these posts that magically appeared while I was gone.

Mat. He seems to be looking for proof in something that isn't relevant, which is suspicious.

This post, right after Mat and I are both sussing each other and I'm appealing to the thread for their views on Mat. The first line seems designed as a disclaimer: "This isn't related to what the rest of you have been talking about, because I haven't read it, this is just coincidence." And that vote looks extremely opportunistic because it comes right at that time and when Mat has three votes on him - this makes Bookwyrm the fourth voter.

The thing is that you can't even say E!Bookwyrm wouldn't because it's too obvious, because he was also an opportunistic fourth voter on V!Archer in QF63, he just did it via sheeping:

Which IMO shows that E!Bookwyrm isn't afraid to be opportunistic and just has issues formulating suspicions, which is fair given his Village play and his experience level.

Araris, FWIW:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:09 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I agree that Bookwyrm is suspicious. Alvron can live until I get a Division blade,.

To elaborate, Book's posts feel like they are too careful. Sometime newer players are like that, but I think newer elims are even more prone to that, so it's worth a vote change.

I don't actually disagree with his assessment there, but I do think he overstates a little - V!Bookwyrm for instance kept raising hackles in LG90 because he kept stating his votes were subject to change.

The strongest case to me for V!Bookwyrm is the fact the train disintegrated fairly normally: Elk and Xino went off, and Araris went to Xino. 

Also, this post:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:59 AM, Ookla the Perpetual said:

GAAAAAH this is frustrating.

I voted Mat because he saw something suspicious from his POV, and I had a hard time empathizing. He's doing the exact same thing I did, so my vote isn't really justified.

You all keep posting faster than I can keep up!

I need to re-read this thread so I know what the heck happened, and so I can make my own reads that are based on more than a flimsy assumption.

I don't know if I see this sort of retraction making sense from an Elim, even one with Bookwyrm's profile who was told to walk it back. 

Like, can you make sense of his reasoning?

"I voted Mat because he saw something he thought was suspicious and that made no sense to me. But he's doing the exact same thing I did (and I'm Village!) so my vote isn't really justified." I kind of don't know if this is likely from E!Bookwyrm - I feel like the Elim doc would tell him to deescalate, maybe vote someone else. I'm not sure they'd advise him to retract via asserting he's a Villager and what Mat did was the same as what he did.

Remember, this is a teammate who just attracted a lot of attention D1!

I also think that the fact this is 1PM (rollover is at 3PM) suggests either than one of the <Szeth, Alv, Elk, TUN> crowd is Evil (in an E!Bookwyrm world) or that the Elims are just fundamentally comfortable with leaving the Bookwyrm train as it is in the lead. It's not the strongest point as Elims can absolutely bus teammates or have a big risk appetite, but that's my read of the feel of the thread.

Too many "I don't actually care if Bookwyrm gets lynched" people, and a few loud anti-Bookwyrm voices.

So in short I guess I feel Silho's neutral category, because I can see both Bookwyrm cases and I'm not really sure which way to lean.

Side-question for y'all: @Archer, @Araris Valerian - you both insist E!you would go for the Shaman. Isn't Jezrien a bigger threat to you, on the assumption that Jezrien is in V!hands? Or do you know something we don't? Araris might remember the trauma of getting scanned repeatedly by Xino :) 

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Gaaah internet is not cooperating >:( 

From last EoD I am sus of Elkanah. That movement at the end was quite strange indeed.

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I kinda want to solidify Bookwyrm myself after xino made it closer. I got twenty minutes ish to decide before I go to bed :P.

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Is it just me or does Deadwei hovering at the bottom of the thread feel like she's judging our reads and choices rn .__.

image.png

Edited to add:

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I kinda want to solidify Bookwyrm myself after xino made it closer. I got twenty minutes ish to decide before I go to bed :P.

Ngl if you want to solidify I think it takes both of us.

If Stick gets on and I recall she did D1 EoD, Stick+Alv will force another tie.

The problem is that I can't convince myself that this train doesn't just feel wrong. Even if there's the threat of a tie and redoing Bookwyrm.

Edited by Kasimir
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5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ngl if you want to solidify I think it takes both of us.

I know, that’s part of why I hesitate :P.

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Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I know, that’s part of why I hesitate :P.

I would say I'm willing if you are because it has to be done together but the truth is that if I commit to doing so, I'd have to override the nagging feeling that this train is just very wrong. I still currently read you Village at least so on my part, I am not so concerned that you are trying to talk me into saving your teammate.

Anything else is a you problem, not a me problem, and thank goodness for that, I have enough problems.

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9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If Stick gets on and I recall she did D1 EoD, Stick+Alv will force another tie.

For what it's worth, my internet is going to be buggy near EoD so I might not even get on and if I do, it might be too laggy to vote. :) 

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I am sorry. I have quickly relooked QF63 and LG90, scanning Bookwyrm's posts. I cannot make myself feel alright with that train. I can't get over the fact that V!Bookwyrm is more awkward, that E!Bookwyrm writes more loosely. Compare:

E!Bookwyrm:

Quote

The Wandering Wizard - Null, maybe a slight village lean. Nothing about him has stood out to me this game, but I don't know whether that's because he isn't suspicious, or if he's trying to keep to himself.

Kas - Villager. I haven't played much with Kas, but...there's something about his constant analyses that seem genuine. They're helpful.

Turtle - Slight Elim lean. This one is primarily based on their voting, which seems to be tied with Xino. Granted, I voted the same way as both these people for the last two cycles, so...maybe it's not the best evidence, after all...? A Turtle-Xino team would make sense to me. Turtle has been posting enough to not seem suspicious in the same way as Xino and JNV, though.

Xino - Slight Elim lean, for reason listed above, and also for the fact that we haven't seen them post much. I could be misreading, but....I think Xino is a safe bet.

Ashbringer - Similar to Wizard; nothing stands out about their posts, so null with a slight village lean.

JNV - Very slight elim lean. Primarily because they haven't been posting a lot, or because I haven't been paying attention. But their inactivity seems slightly suspicious.

Umm......We'll go with Xino for now, but I'll probably switch later if things change up.

with:

V!Bookwyrm

Quote

Okay.

I am primarily basing my conjectures on the vote count for the previous day. We had five votes for Turtle, and four votes for Stick, both of which we now know are villagers.

I think it's likely that a good number of those voting for both of those people are elims. (A fairly obvious conclusion.)

For Turtle, we had Mat, Shadow, Archivist, Xino, and Stick. The only one of these voters we've identified is Stick, and they were a villager. 

I went and re-read Day 2, and there was very little justification (in my opinion) for why Turtle was suspicious. Shadowblob said that Turtle only seemed to be focusing on their image, and that was something an elim would do. Archivist jumped on the bandwagon without adding any evidence of their own, simply saying they agreed with Shadow. And, as the day got closer to ending, more and more people jumped on the Turtle bandwagon without any justification (Xino, Mat, Stick). Granted, we now know that Stick was village, so there's a chance that Turtle seemed suspicious enough that other villagers were convinced as well.

So I have my eye on Shadow and Archivist.

For Stick, we have Wizard, Illwei, Silver, and Dannex. We now know that Wizard was an elim. The evidence given against Stick by Silver was the fact that Stick had changed votes a bunch without reasoning in a previous cycle. That seemed kind of flimsy to me. Wizard didn't provide much reasoning of his own, and we now know that they were an elim. Illwei voted Stick without much reasoning, probably based on personal suspicions and that of others. Dannex seemed the same to me. 

Out of these, Silver seems the most suspicious to me, based on a gut feeling as I was re-reading their posts.

I'm not going to cast a vote quite yet, because I want to see what other people think and how they vote, but my main leads right now are on Shadow, Archivist, and Silver.

And I've said this in the past; all of it is subject to change.

I may do a read of other players later.

And even now I doubt because p1 D2 Bookwyrm honestly isn't anywhere near as meticulous as V!Bookwyrm, but I kind of feel like E!Bookwyrm should've put in much more of a standard effort, since it's very clear he's capable of that. So whatever. I don't know anything anymore. Welcome to SE where the gut is wild and the reads don't matter - that's right Kas, your reads are like points on Whose Line Is It Anyway, they don't really matter because you're probably tripping af rn.

I don't care if Alv and Stick want to force a tie at this point. I don't care if that leads to a bad result. That's on both of you, not on me. I am not responsible for the whole Village. It's time I acted like it.

I feel Araris should be more sensitive to this and I can't make myself feel good about his vote, but I also am not certain if I can make myself feel good about lynching Araris in absentia, knowing how often this happens to him.

So I'm sticking with Xino.

Your move, Mat. I'm fine with my decision.

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2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I am not responsible for the whole Village. It's time I acted like it.

Good for you.  Stop trying to carry everything and get some sleep.

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1 minute ago, Alvron said:

Good for you.  Stop trying to carry everything and get some sleep.

Seconded.

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4 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Good for you.  Stop trying to carry everything and get some sleep.

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

Seconded.

Bros it is nearly 2PM .__.

I've had sleep, I'm just getting ready for more World Cup and Age with Wyrm.

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6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Your move, Mat. I'm fine with my decision.

I came to solidify that train and just get the flip but I hope you stay, actually.

Bookwyrm

You’re right that it doesn’t feel great though.

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Just now, Kasimir said:

Bros it is nearly 2PM .__.

I've had sleep, I'm just getting ready for more World Cup and Age with Wyrm.

Oh right you're on the other side of the world :P

my bad :unsure:

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Just now, Kasimir said:

Bros it is nearly 2PM .__.

With your sleep cycle, it doesn't matter what the time is.  You need sleep.  I know it, you know it.  Now you just need to admit it and go to bed.

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1 hour left!

 

Edit: Half Hour now!

Vote Count:

  • The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67
  • Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
  • Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten
  • xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity
  • Araris Valerian (1): Archer
Edited by Ashbringer
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39 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

1 hour left!

 

Edit: Half Hour now!

Vote Count:

  • The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual (5): Turtle / Ookla the POKE VOTE, Araris Valerian, Matrim's Dice, JNV, Cash67
  • Szeth_Pancakes / Ookla the Omnicient (2): The Unknown Novel, _Stick_
  • Elkanah (2): The Bookwyrm / Ookla the Perpetual, xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten
  • xinoehp512 / Ookla the Forgotten (2): Kasimir, InfiniteInsanity
  • Araris Valerian (1): Archer

Do you feel relieved that the EoD is so quiet? :P No more last minute votes to track?

I don't feel good about this, but it's out of my hands now so there's a small comfort in that.

Now, Germany v. Spain on Monday morning... :(

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1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Do you feel relieved that the EoD is so quiet? :P No more last minute votes to track?

I don't feel good about this, but it's out of my hands now so there's a small comfort in that.

Now, Germany v. Spain on Monday morning... :(

Me neither.

I was impressed that the US was able to pull a draw with England today ^_^

They're still far from winning their group, but... it was cool

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Just now, Ookla the Omniscient said:

I was impressed that the US was able to pull a draw with England today ^_^

Tbh, US could've won that, you guys put up a great showing and had a better first half in my view.

1 minute ago, Ookla the Omniscient said:

They're still far from winning their group, but... it was cool

Tbf, winning the group is nice but you at least want to advance to knock-outs. A victory over Iran would do nicely for that.

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Looks like I'm not going to get a tie vote this cycle. :( 

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