149 posts in this topic

LG91 Day 2: Wei Down We Go

After the Truthless's death, cooler heads began to break up the crowd. But still, people were tense, and tense people made rash decisions. Such as going to their homes or stationed corners without checking up on one another, without making the precautions that would fit the time of war.

Illwei had gone to their quarters alone, tossing a small stone in hand. One they were only now being accustomed to carrying. However, they were too focused on it, and didn't see the danger.

Illwei was found the next morning, dead. How was hard to tell, but the stone they'd carried marked them as an Honorblade Bearer of Shinovar. The first to fall.

 

 

Illwei was killed! They were a member of the Shin High Council and the Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade!

Paliah's Honorblade is available to be claimed by Illwei's killer! If it remains unclaimed, it will be redistributed at the end of the Day Turn.

 

Minor rule clarification, because I just now noticed this: in the event someone uses Gravitation or Transformation the same turn their Honorblade for doing so is Reclaimed, tentatively that action still goes through, despite being lower on the OoA (due to needing to be able to for Transformation to find the current Blade holder). Unless me changing OoA things is frowned upon, I'll go with those 2 Surges still work on a reclaimed turn alongside the other 8.

 

The Day Turn will end on November 25th at 11:00 PM PST. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
  2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
  3. @The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar
  4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
  5. @Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron
  6. @JNV - Jen-child-Verin
  7. @Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm Rizam-son-Azram
  8. @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
  9. @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
  10. @Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan
  11. @InfiniteInsanity
  12. @Chantara
  13. @_Stick_
  14. @Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken
  15. Illwei Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
  16. @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
  17. @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi
  18. @Tani - Daalna
  19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
  20. @Ookla the Omniscient / Szeth_Pancakes

 

Edited by Ashbringer
Still got a day
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I’ll start Elkanah

There’s inconsistencies among their posts - here they admit that they won’t exact favour a tie in presence of vote manipulation:

Quote

I don't know. Vote manip makes me a little less likely to enjoy the tie.

And then twenty minutes later they’re trying their hardest to get the votes to tie.

They also made a point about being very suspicious of bookwyrm here:

Quote

I haven't seen any answers from Bookwyrm to change my mind, and there have been some comments on how this is similar to other games where he was an elim. It could still just be the way Bookwyrm plays regardless of alignment, but it is the most suspicious thing I've seen.

And here:

Quote

He's my highest suspect at the moment.

Aside from a lot of the suspicion here seeming to have been borrowed from other players, them deciding to vote Wiz to get a tie instead of pursuing this very strong suspicion does not sit right with me. 

While skimming their posts I also came across this:

Quote

Good RP. Are you claiming to hold an honorblade, though?

It’s just an odd question to ask and makes me wonder what kind of reply they were hoping for, and also whether this is something you’d even think to ask when you’re in a village mindset. Like, take Cin’s coinshot softclaim in RP in LG90 - ONLY the elims picked up on that and none of the villagers. This is because the villagers aren’t consciously looking for this stuff imo. 
 

edit:

and also I don’t think any of their posts talked about wiz at all (their vote on them was in the name of ties) - as far as I know they never flagged any of wiz’s posts as suspicious so the “I don’t trust wiz” kinda came out of nowhere too 

 

edit2:

and yes I would agree that Alv/elkanah are not teamed 

Edited by _Stick_
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K. First thing first, Shaman should keep an eye out on any changes in the list, especially if there's a new player that shows up on it, or a player who acquires a second Blade. I don't consider Honorblade passing to have been likely at least Village-side, so minimally: keep an eye out for changes. If I'm understanding the rules correctly, you can't tell whether it's the killer or someone who randomly acquired the Blade when the killer declined to, so use your best judgement, but good to keep a weather eye out.

Right. Not the NKA guy (hi Ash >>) but: Illwei is an odd kill target but also not. More or less uncontested Village, and an analytical powerhouse. Odd because this is a N1 high profile kill, which is not exactly meta. (Note to self here: go look up N1 kill decisions for the last couple games.) Mildly relieved I committed not to overthink Illwei. Possible fear kill? Illwei just came off a banner game in LG90. 

Well, the plausible reasons I could see at this stage: (1) control kill, (2) fear kill, (3) suspicion kill, i.e. Illwei had mentioned one of them as a suspicion.

(1) If we think control kill, probably somewhere in the ballpark of: <Kas, Mat, maaaaybe Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV.> Happy to hear objections if you think I am incorrectly characterising your kill meta. I sure know I didn't do it, and I V!read Mat so am not going there. Lightly V read JNV though I don't have that much to go off, so I can leave them asterisked in the pool if need be. This gives me a <Stick, Alv, Elk, Archer, JNV> pool. Tentatively, very slightly lean towards the Stick/Elk/Archer end of the pool. I accept I probably am not reading Alv right, or maybe this is coloured by my wanting him to be Village so I am happy to hear about why I am mistaken on this score. I'll commit to checking their NK kill decisions after classes tonight. Or World Cup. Whichever. 

(2) If we think fear kill...

Theoretically: 

Let's copy the entire list out first.

<Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.>

Taking out people who would probably not D1 fearkill Illwei qua Illwei:

<Turtle, Araris, TUN, Mat, JNV, Bookwyrm, Silho, Xino, Kas, Insanity, Chantara, Stick, Cash, Archer, Alv, Tani, Elk, Szeth.>

(3) Suspicions-wise, we're looking at the set of: <Tani, Szeth, Turtle, Alv, Silho.> IMO, more likely to be <Tani, Szeth, Alv, Turtle>, with Illwei questioning Turtle N1, so italicised since that isn't outright suspicion. I think most of Illwei's D1 is not direct, outright sus and the most prominent would've been Alv, and then the mention of E!Tani and E!Szeth on N1.

Not too much commonalities except via Turtle (questionable), Silho, and JNV (also italicised.) 

Sigh please don't judge me too hard Ash I'm trying my best :/

@_Stick_ - Do not disagree with this one, but want to ask if your view is informed in part by your V!read of Bookwyrm, as I notice part of your case is functionally based off Elk sussing Bookwyrm but then not pursuing it aggressively.

Going to go onto Szeth for the moment. I accept it could be a run of bad luck, but Szeth performing a self-presing tie onto a (now) known Villager despite the flak Bookwyrm was drawing is something that doesn't look quite right IMO.

Edited to add: @_Stick_, for that matter, what's behind your last minute Wiz vote? I figured you planned to break the tie, but what was going through your head at that point?

Edited by Kasimir
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TUN has been opening all the top secret PMs. Shame on them

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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

(3) Suspicions-wise, we're looking at the set of: <Tani, Szeth, Turtle, Alv, Silho.>

Okay, when was this that she sussed me?

Was it D1?

Because I'm still only about on page 4, and don't recall seeing her sus me yet.

Edit: Wait nevermind I just wasn't looking close enough at that paragraph. Sorry.

Edited by Tani
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1 minute ago, Tani said:

Okay, when was this that she sussed me?

Was it D1?

Because I'm still only about on page 4, and don't recall seeing her sus me yet.

Question for you: Did you consider Mat might be pulling a Baker?

Also:

16 hours ago, Illwei said:

i am also not a fan of this on principle. if its something you see then change it in your wolfgame. 

Tani is probably an elim, as well as szeth. 

 

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4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

want to ask if your view is informed in part by your V!read of Bookwyrm, as I notice part of your case is functionally based off Elk sussing Bookwyrm but then not pursuing it aggressively.

I would still see it as suspicious if you swapped out Bookwyrm for another player because the inconsistency remains independently of who they were sussing. But if you’re asking what I think of Elk’s and Bookwyrm’s alignments with regards to each other, I’d say that if Elk E then Bookwyrm almost certainly V and if Bookwyrm E then Elk almost certainly V. They can’t both be E imo but both V? Possible, though I’m leaning Elk E atm. 
 

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @_Stick_, for that matter, what's behind your last minute Wiz vote? I figured you planned to break the tie, but what was going through your head at that point?

It was less about breaking the tie and more about voting in favour of my village read. If for example the tie was between Szeth and Wiz - given that my vote was on Szeth- I wouldn’t have switched to Wiz just to break the tie. Because I was not village reading Wiz and was (still am) suspicious of Szeth. 
 

Regarding the Illwei kill, it’s possible that she had been in a PM with an elim. Cuz she had a blade - maybe she’d given an indication of holding a blade to somebody she trusted in PM. There’s a maximum of 8 blades and with 20 players, the chances of the elims hitting a player holding an honorblade were low. It could just be a coincidence sure but can’t hurt to speculate. 

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4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you: Did you consider Mat might be pulling a Baker?

What's a Baker?

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8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I would still see it as suspicious if you swapped out Bookwyrm for another player because the inconsistency remains independently of who they were sussing. But if you’re asking what I think of Elk’s and Bookwyrm’s alignments with regards to each other, I’d say that if Elk E then Bookwyrm almost certainly V and if Bookwyrm E then Elk almost certainly V. They can’t both be E imo but both V? Possible, though I’m leaning Elk E atm. 

Yeah, I definitely see it as suspicious - see my N1, for instance. But I'm more curious if your Elk E credences are affected by your V!Bookwyrm credences, because they definitely don't really seem E/E to me and I'd kind of agree: that's a whole lot of reckless endangerment from Elk otherwise in late EoD, and Elk of all players should know that Alv would act to enforce a tie.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It was less about breaking the tie and more about voting in favour of my village read. If for example the tie was between Szeth and Wiz - given that my vote was on Szeth- I wouldn’t have switched to Wiz just to break the tie. Because I was not village reading Wiz and was (still am) suspicious of Szeth. 

Yeah, that's fair. I was trying to work out if you believed Szeth to be viable at EoD when you voted Wiz, more or less, given all the chaos from Elk and Alv hopping everywhere.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Regarding the Illwei kill, it’s possible that she had been in a PM with an elim. Cuz she had a blade - maybe she’d given an indication of holding a blade to somebody she trusted in PM. There’s a maximum of 8 blades and with 20 players, the chances of the elims hitting a player holding an honorblade were low. It could just be a coincidence sure but can’t hurt to speculate. 

Put it this way. It's possible, though I don't know if Illwei is that careless in PMs.

I should also note that I know of one PM, so there might definitely be more. 

Something that does come to mind though is that Chana looks more V to me now. (Yes, I know, likely assumption, but also, Beagle.) E!Chana has absolutely no reason not to kill at Night and just sell it as vig action. I refuse to believe that at least half the trains weren't clean given that it was a rapidly-shifting three-to-four-way tie (I guess it could just be 1/4 the trains, but again, would entail significant Elim risk appetite), and I know of at least one Villager who was a CW close to EoD that Chana could reasonably have stabbed without recrimination.

Two Villagers, if you believe Bookwyrm is V.

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, Tani said:

What's a Baker?

Your Rose Empire buddy in LG84? Both of you worked with the rest of us at endgame to help us find JNV, the last Elim, and then we won that thing after a near-sweep :P 

Edited by Kasimir
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25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Your Rose Empire buddy in LG84? Both of you worked with the rest of us at endgame to help us find JNV, the last Elim, and then we won that thing after a near-sweep :P 

What does it mean to pull a Baker, then? xD

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14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What does it mean to pull a Baker, then? xD

Baker gambit - he sussed me to try to keep me alive since he felt I was an obvious Village read. I think...you mentioned an inadvertent Baker a couple of games ago. 

Look, I mention it because:

17 hours ago, Tani said:

E: Mat (mild read,) because he was trying to shade Kas with little/no proof, when he said himself that he could've caught e!Kas later. (Just cuz someone clears someone else doesn't mean they won't still be watching for elimmy stuff.)

Like, I confess it could be because I have a decent memory for things that happen in SE games, but I'd felt it was odd that Tani E!reads you for something she basically V!read Baker for, though to be fair, she had other reasons to V!read Baker that game. But I think you get my point - the point being that two Villagers can disagree about how to read each other for a variety of reasons, and this was directly relevant to Tani because this put her in between the Village and Baker for a bit, so there's some element of "Ok maybe you haven't played in a while" but also "Really? Do you not actually remember this?" going on.

In short, I'm just trying to work out Tani's mindset/thought process here, really.

 

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14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Baker gambit - he sussed me to try to keep me alive since he felt I was an obvious Village read. I think...you mentioned an inadvertent Baker a couple of games ago. 

Ah. No, not doing that, sorry :P 

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4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah. No, not doing that, sorry :P 

I know you're not. But my point is that it's salient to Tani as it was a major factor in a game she played. Why auto-jump to suspicion of you? What's her train of thought?

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1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I know you're not. But my point is that it's salient to Tani as it was a major factor in a game she played. Why auto-jump to suspicion of you? What's her train of thought?

I mean, that game was awhile ago annd thought processes change, but as you said Tani had more reason to v!read Baker (like him being in her doc) and iirc that was later than C1 so she had more time to read him anyway.

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, that game was awhile ago annd thought processes change, but as you said Tani had more reason to v!read Baker (like him being in her doc) and iirc that was later than C1 so she had more time to read him anyway.

Yeah, but I just want to hear it from her and to make sense of it. Tani was really obviously V in that game, so I firmly believe that interacting with V!Tani should yield fairly clear results in this game. Not to sheep Illwei too hard, but if Illwei was suspicious of Tani, I at least want to probe, even if my direct suspicions are more in the <Elk, Szeth, Bookwyrm> set with a side of <Archer, Xino> for the moment. And probably some questions of Cash as well and I need to go over the odd votes I flagged in my notes...

Either way, it's D2. I don't want to foreclose any lines of inquiry, especially this early ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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My activity is going to be spotty today, I’m still suspicious of Bookwyrm, and based on LG90 I would say that both Mat and TUN would advocate for a N1 Illwei kill.

I’d also soft-clear Cash for being the only player to vote alongside Illwei, since usually elims want to avoid being the last living player in a group.

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All right, I have been having much trouble following this game.

I'm going to use my easy strategy and assume that the Wizard train had at least one, if not multiple, elims riding it. And the same for the next highest train, which was me.

We know that Wiz was village, now, and so I think that it's reasonable to assume that some of the other people who voted for me are also village. The Bookwyrm train probably only has one elim.

But simply focusing on the Wizard train...

I was not paying much attention, so I was really confused once so many people started voting Wizard. He didn't seem suspicious to me, and we know know that he was a villager...

I have my eye on Szeth and Elkanah right now, but I'm going to go re-read that part of D1 a little closer before I come to a solid conclusion.

If there is more solid reasoning for why people were voting Wizard, can you explain it to me?

Edited by Ookla the Perpetual
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noooooo illwei :(( 

my pm buddy is gone :((

i think there’s a good chance one in <elk/alvron> is elim

ill do some thoughts based on that but obviously today is gonna be a bit busy for me bc it’s thanksgiving (which, by the way, if you don’t live in the states you’re absolutely not missing out on much. it’s just food.)

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Hmmmmmm

edit:

I will say that it always pings my elim radar every time someone pops up out of the blue the moment a vote is cast on them

edit2:

Araris what do you mean by that Cash statement I don’t follow xD

Also disclaimer I will be even less active this turn 

Edited by _Stick_
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I just re-read D1 and found that it was an insanely confusing vote shuffle based mostly on the fact that ties are fun.

Um....

Elkanah, with my ever present "subject to change" asterisk.

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3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Araris what do you mean by that Cash statement I don’t follow xD

Cash voted next to Illwei last turn. So if Cash was elim, they are now the only player left there, which makes them vulnerable to VC analysis.

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I’m not sure how much the elims would catch on to that, tbf, especially a newer one. I think it’d be worth checking her reads.

Bookwyrm to me feels like the easy option and idk what I think about that— their flip would be useful because they were a countertrain yesterday but if they’re v that’s a very easy elim vote. 

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Right. Something I've found - I take back what I said last cycle about the low info kill meta being a thing. It turns out that if you are bloody-minded enough to go through a drektonne of recent SE games and categorise N1/C1/closest analogue kill MOs and curse silently at Elim teams who don't have the decency to explain their kill MOs, these are the results you get:

Methodology:

To be clear, the data begins from LG83. This is slightly arbitrary, but I discarded MR56 as the start point due to the problems with working out the arson targets. I then also just went through every game from LG83 onwards through to BT3. Where a game had bad data or the kill MO could not be discerned, it was marked as N/A for MO. I tagged a game multiple times if different MOs appeared simultaneously, using the given thought processes of the Elims in most cases to tag the game.

In Summary:

Spoiler

image.png

Archer is the most popular kill target. Ouch? I think what's telling here is Illwei is the N1 target just once, and this is a decent dataset. To be sure, Illwei didn't play every game. But it's worth looking at the one case in which Illwei showed up as a N1 NK target.

That game is MR57, where Araris died C1 while afk and therefore had no input into the kill target. Orlok made the call himself and made it on the grounds that he was losing a teammate, so ruthlessness was called for, and that Illwei was both Village read and dangerous. Which makes this a bit awkward because this means there's no direct link between any team here and killing Illwei.

But let's take a step back and look at the preponderance of kill MOs in SE and funny enough - some of them look like low info kills but kind of...aren't.

image.png

Teams overwhelmingly killed for tactical reasons. These included needing to outfox protection, killing suspected roles, instigating conflict between two thread players. Control kills were the next most popular, involving killing players who had become slightly too cleared because of voting patterns (or other reasons), or in order to better allow the Elims to exert thread control or in-game influence. Threat kills and low info kills shared the same, lower frequency.

It's very possible that the Illwei N1 here was a threat kill. I think any Elim team that played LG90 or witnessed it should definitely have been wary of letting Illwei live for too long. That being said, I think the sharp skew towards tactical and control kills makes that a more likely hypothesis. 

I slightly disagree with Stick Illwei got killed over a PM, though it's possible the Elims were trying to hunt for Jezrien and felt she might be a candidate (on the assumption they don't already have Jezrien.) As Illwei certainly was read Village by enough loud people, it's possible killing her left exploitable faultlines in the Village, e.g. hoping to get Mat and me to murder each other. Or me and Archer, if V!Archer. No idea, really, but these all fit into the 'tactical' categorisation.

What we can do with this data that is marginally more helpful is to narrow down to a specific class of kills and to identify the teams that were closely associated with them and present in this game, taking precedent as some sort of guide beyond raw intuition.

Suppose let's say: <Aman, Mat, Archer, Kas, Araris, Conq> as a rough approximation of players who fulfil a noisemaker niche. It's weird putting Araris there, but he's occasionally had games where he does that, so whatever.

The associated team pool is: <Araris, Archer, Mat, Kas, Xino, Silho, JNV, Turtle, Stick, TUN.>

................

Soddit. I'm not doing NKA anymore. If I ever try again, please remind me why I don't do it, this is not helpful because I'm not Ash. It was worth looking at the data, but geez, that's like half the damn players in this damn game.

Tagged Data:

Spoiler

LG83: N1 (kill withheld), N2 (Ash, Aman) - Team: Araris, Archer
Kill Classifications: Tactical

Notes:
-Araris advises skipping the N1 kill (this is due to a mechanic that allows kills to be subsequently 'made up'.)
-Archer suggests a suspicion kill N2, i.e. someone who might seek to remove Bip, another teammate.
-Araris suggests a tactical kill N2, i.e. players who fit the Investigator (i.e. Seeker) profile. Archer concurs.
-Archer suggests sleeper kill/mix: get rid of someone who will ramp up and become more threatening eventually.

BT1: C1 (Aman) - Team: Mat, Kas
Kill Classifications: Control / Threat

Notes:
-Kas suggests an Aman kill to go for the jugular and deal with the problem.
-Mat demurs, believing it will implicate him.

QF59: C1 (Mat) - Team: Kas
Kill Classifications: Control

Notes:
-Orlok advises delaying analyst kills until C3, with camouflage considerations
-Orlok believes Striker's (teammate's) impending C1 death requires kill ruthlessness
-Kas notes that in LG82, V!Illwei claims that targeting her is the kill meta of three players: <Kas, Araris, Archer> [Note to self: re-read/check LG82 later.]
-Orlok suggests JNV as a player with enough games to be an acceptable target - likely low profile kill MO. Kas agrees.
-Orlok later makes the swap to Mat likely on the strength of the Village credit Mat gained from the Striker exe.

MR57: C1 (Illwei) - Team: Araris
Kill Classifications: Control / Threat

Notes:
-Araris got lynched in absentia and did not have any input on the kill decision.
-Orlok makes the kill decision on the grounds that Illwei is fairly Village read and a dangerous player.
-Likely also influenced by the judgement that with Araris lost C1, they needed to pull no punches with the NK.

LG84: N1 (Experience) - Team: JNV, Archer, Illwei
Kill Classifications: Control / Misdirection

Notes:
-Archer was lynched D1 and thus did not have any input on the kill decision.
-JNV favours cultivating Kas if teammate Shadow can manage that; otherwise, kill
-JNV considers a kill on Tani because she has not accrued much suspicion, but feels bad about a low activity kill.
-Shadow pushes for an Exp kill on the grounds it will frame everyone who disliked Exp's April Fools' joke.

QF60: C1 (Archer) - Team: Mat
Kill Classifications: Control / Tactical

Notes:
-Mat specifically thinks the correct strategy is to go for high activity, control kills.
-Mat considers Archer as a kill but is worried about thread death.
-Mat considers killing Xino as a way to open the door to thread control.
-Mat eventually swaps to killing Archer for tactical reasons, believing Archer is a tracker.

LG85: N1 (Archer) - Team: -
Kill Classifications: N/A

Notes:
-Drake considers a tactical kill of someone with a good role.
-Experience goes for Archer as someone who might be a higher payback gamble.
-Honestly I'm just doing this game for completeness, kill meta in this game is completely thrown for reasons that include anonymity and the fact that kills don't exactly kill.

MR58: N1 (Archer) - Team: Illwei
Kill Classifications: N/A

Notes:
-I don't actually know what is going on in this game. Theoretically Archer got N1ed but the GM spreadsheet doesn't indicate how he died, if he got killed or whatever. 
-Bort doesn't indicate why he picked Archer, and no real idea why Illwei favoured a kill on Stick.
-All in all, another game with bad data that I am discarding. If anyone has a better idea about this game, let me know.

LG86: N1 (Striker, Araris) - Team: Stick, JNV
Kill Classifications: Low Info (?) / Tactical (?)

Notes:
-Ngl I haven't the faintest idea why Stick picked Striker. I'm guessing it's a kill profile thing again, as Striker was moderately active but using a different style that reduced the intensity of his thread engagement.
-Also nfc why Stick picked Araris if possible for the second kill: likely a tactical element?
-God people this is why you spell out why you are killing someone in your docs, so that people will know for posterity >:( ffs

BT2: C1 (Kas) - Team: Xino, Wiz
Kill Classifications: Tactical

Notes:
-Xino figured he was better off shooting a Honorspren, and I was a known Honorspren and he felt like rolling the dice. Thank you for spelling out your kill rationale, Xino. Thank you.

QF61: C1 (JNV) - Team: Archer, TUN
Kill Classifications: Tactical

Notes:
-Archer advocates for killing Stick as Stick leads the boards - a tactical kill.
-Subsequently changes his mind as Stick V!reads both of them.
-Considers a misdirection kill on Mat to frame Devo but backs off because Mat is in a corner.
-Switches to JNV for tactical reasons - player wealth and likelihood JNV isn't taking precautions.

LG87: N1 (Fifth) - Team: Archer, TUN
Kill Classifications: Tactical

Notes:
-Fifth claimed Royalist. Open and shut case of a tactical kill.

MR59: C1 (Mat) - Team: Kas
Kill Classifications: Control

Notes:
-Oh wow my teams seem to C1 Mat a lot. Sorry Mat >>
-I don't actually know why Fifth suggested Mat. Huh. Looks like he likes to start with a control kill.
-It looks like we ended up there through principled elimination of a lot of returning and new players from kill pool.
-Kas agrees Mat looks like a decent control kill.

LG88: N1 (Wiz) - Team: -
Kill Classifications: Misdirection

Notes:
-Wiz was picked to sow confusion.

QF62: C2 (Conq) - Team: Mat, Silho
Kill Classifications: Tactical

Notes:
-Mat aimed to kill someone not in the Melkor PoE
-Presumably also someone noisy but hey, that's projecting and I don't do that. All we know is Mat wanted to kill not in the Melkor PoE and considered both Conq and Archer to be good choices.
-Silho suggested Conq as well. No idea why. Probably noisy.

LG89: N1 (Araris) - Team: Stick, JNV, Turtle, Xino
Kill Classifications: Control / Tactical

Notes:
-Xino was dead D1, so did not have input as to the kill.
-JNV considers killing Mat because Mat looks very good off Xino's flip. Stick disagrees because Stick feels Mat is likely protected.
-JNV suggests low info kills but notes that produces a problem as Turtle is their teammate.
-JNV favours killing trusted players first.
-Stick suggests an Araris kill instead of Mat, due to a Mat kill making Conq look good. Tactical elements.
-Turtle suggests a threat kill of me. What is this blasphemy, sheesh.
-JNV is a hard no on killing me, especially since I'm currently tanking suspicion.
-JNV shifts the kill to Araris due to Mat-Conq conflict. Tactical reasons.

MR60: C1 (TUN) - Team: Illwei, Stick
Kill Classifications: Low Info

Notes:
-TUN kill was made by Devo. Stick hadn't subbed into the game yet. No idea why, but Devo has a tendency to favour low info kills.

LG90: N1(Kas) - Team: Mat, Wiz, TUN
Kill Classifications: Threat / Tactical

Notes:
-Mat wrote a whole 'Kas delenda est' essay. I still think it's kinda excessive but it boils down to tactical reasons and probably overestimating the extent to which I was sold on E!anyone on his team. So kinda threat if you squint.
-TUN for threat reasons.

QF63: C1 (Xino) - Team: Turtle, Bookwyrm
Kill Classifications: Low Info (?)

Notes:
-No idea why they tried to kill Xino. Turtle just be like 'k we killin' Xino.'

BT3: C1 (Turtle) - Team: Wiz, XinoElk
Kill Classifications: Random / Tactical

Notes:
-Elk rolled RNG to pick the Mark target.
-Wiz felt that Turtle was attracting enough suspicion, and therefore likely to be killed.

Think it's worth noting though that LG82 also featured an Illwei N1, and an Araris/Mage/Sart team. Araris called the Illwei kill that game, mostly for tactical reasons - either to implicate Illwei if she survived via a WGG or to confuse the Village via an off-meta kill:

Quote

I think I’m good with the Illwei kill. Pretty sure it will catch the village off guard, who will be expecting us to hit one of Tani/Mage/Danex. Current meta has definitely been low-info kills from elims. And if Illwei survives, it could look like a WGG.

Quote

Kas in his recent analysis should have factored in NKA which is relevant when I haven’t even played with Mage yet i don’t think? A team of Sart/Mage would kill Araris or Kas first, imo. Someone that Sart knows and Sart knows is competent. Kas/Araris/Archer are the people who would kill me N1 imo.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Cash voted next to Illwei last turn. So if Cash was elim, they are now the only player left there, which makes them vulnerable to VC analysis.

Presume you're meaning because it is an isolated train.

50 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m not sure how much the elims would catch on to that, tbf, especially a newer one. I think it’d be worth checking her reads.

Kill decisions are usually made as a team, aren't they? And her most recent pair of reads were E!Tani and E!Szeth. 

50 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Bookwyrm to me feels like the easy option and idk what I think about that— their flip would be useful because they were a countertrain yesterday but if they’re v that’s a very easy elim vote. 

The part I'm having trouble answering is Stick asking why Bookwyrm didn't at least self-pres but just unvoted and left. Looking at the votes, and I'm sure you can do that yourself as well since your analysis will probably differ from mine, there's just one point where Bookwyrm is under major threat and that's when Xino and Elk stack onto him very close together, bringing him up to five votes.

Xino hops onto Bookwyrm, as Araris subsequently notes, with nearly 36 hours left in the cycle.

On N1, Xino explains this as desiring to form a tie between you and Bookwyrm. He doesn't have further explanation for this tie-chasing. 

Three minutes later, Araris calls out Xino's move to Bookwyrm.

A minute after Araris's callout, Elk votes Bookwyrm as well, and then edits in an acknowledgement of Araris's point, but decides:

On 11/22/2022 at 3:25 AM, Elkanah said:

This is a good point. Still, I'll leave my vote as posted. maybe it will add a little weight to my question.

Sixteen minutes after Elk, Xino abandons commitment to the tie and swaps to Wiz in order to put pressure on Wiz (again, explained N1.) Admittedly, the tie was dead by then, but that's a fairly fast pullout.

Two minutes after Xino pulls out, Elk pulls off as well to go vote for Wiz as well and make a tie to summon Alv.

Leaving the Elk issue aside, the stable voters on Bookwyrm are JNV (didn't show up subsequently that I can find, and the last login data is no good by now), and Wiz, who we now know is Village. Araris would later switch off. It doesn't 'feel' like Bookwyrm badly needed to be saved: most of the time, voters just organically hopped off. Or weirdly hopped off, in the case of the Xino-Elk doublesynch. (FWIW Araris rubberband hopping back onto Bookwyrm at least makes it unlikely they're teamed unless he was gambling hard on an Alv tie at the end and willing to roll the dice.)

You could argue the movement to save E!Bookwyrm happened on alternative trains, but Araris actively endangers Bookwyrm again at EoD. You're the one who saves Bookwyrm by moving off onto Szeth and you know your own alignment. Szeth, Stick, Alv, Elk all do vote in that major tie mess at EoD but the way Alv and Elk were voting to ensure a tie makes me feel like they didn't particularly care about which of Bookwyrm or Wiz stayed alive. Stick was probably the only one who was openly invested in saving Bookwyrm. Szeth pointedly self-preses on Wiz over Bookwyrm, though I have to question that an Elim team could so dangerously play C1 to the point two of their members were in danger near the end. Not impossible, but odd.

I guess the short is I'm not sure either, and signals are muffled a lot in the noise of tie-chasing, and the Village has been known to lose interest, but I feel as though the Bookwyrm train dissolved organically - Xino and Elk hop off within the hour, and both shift to form a train by piggybacking onto Archer's pre-existing vote on Wiz. And there's nothing that really makes sense of that shift; Xino gets called out on his Bookwyrm vote by Araris and hopping to Wiz is seemingly his reaction. Elk just joins him because why the hell not, make a tie and summon Alv apparently. (Which is where I'm sympathetic to Stick's gripes.)

And then Araris gets induced off by Archer replying to his calling Xino out and saying he (Archer) could get behind a Xino vote. @Araris Valerian, what's behind your move off Bookwyrm and onto Xino, and then back to Bookwyrm again at EoD?

I don't rule out in an E!Bookwyrm world that there are Elims driving alternate trains. I just think that it's odd that most of the movement is on the train and then off again.

Edited by Kasimir
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2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

My activity is going to be spotty today, I’m still suspicious of Bookwyrm, and based on LG90 I would say that both Mat and TUN would advocate for a N1 Illwei kill.

I’d also soft-clear Cash for being the only player to vote alongside Illwei, since usually elims want to avoid being the last living player in a group.

I'll be honest and say Illwei would totally be someone I would pick to kill.

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42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

QF63: C1 (Xino) - Team: Turtle, Bookwyrm
Kill Classifications: Low Info (?)

Notes:
-No idea why they tried to kill Xino. Turtle just be like 'k we killin' Xino.'

i uh, think i made a web of who was most v!read by which players and killed that person. i think

i forget lmao i was just like ‘yeah sure kill xino why not’

idk i think you could classify it as low info but it was more like me being like ‘why am i cursed by rng idk how to be evil’

that game was a lot of dumb luck on my part

anyways i need to get more v reads smh my paranoia is too high

but my poe rn is that at least 2 wolves are in <tani, szeth, tun, elk/alv, bookwyrm>

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