Time Jump to Era 3

[Philomath]

Does anyone else think the time skip to Era 3 is going to be much much shorter? Real world time between Brandon’s proposed technologies is less than 100 years. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is like 50 years or less. With the ghost bloods actively wanting and working toward better tech to defend the planet, the remnants of the Set’s work, and Wax being something of a scientist himself with a lot of new personal powers to work with I could see things developing fairly quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Wax’s kids is one of the main characters. 

[Isilel]

I am with you about everything else, but I really want new Era 3 characters to be from more normal backgrounds, i.e. not rich descendants of the Era 1 and 2 characters and not orphaned street urchins. Middle class, working class, etc. I'd dearly like to see how awakening of Metallic talents affect lives of such people, given their potential to be life-changing. And to finally learn how new snapping happens and whether it is required for ferrings too!

Now that I think about it, adolescence must be even more stressful on Scadrial, with everyone desperately hoping to manifest a cool power, only to become more and more disappointed as years pass...

[+robardin]

We were also promised that Era 3 would feature a kind of "SWAT Team" of Metalborn that included a Nicroburst - something I was disappointed (and a bit disbelieving) we didn't see in Era 2. Like, we see four new metals introduced to Scadrial that were "off the charts" and unknown to the people of TFE in cadmium, bendalloy, chromium, and nicrosil... But we only ever see people Pulsing, Sliding, and Leeching!

We see how awed Marasi, Wayne, and Wax are by not-Wax's freakishly powerful Steelpushes, reasoning that he must have acquired a spike for duralumin (harvested from a poor Misting "gnat" who would have taken some digging to even discover)... Why wouldn't they have seen tag-team mega-Pushes or Pulls before with a nicroburst Misting? Or used/seen an "allomantic grenade" with a nicroburst charge in it (the Set still had their own such "grenades")?

It's like nicrobursts didn't even exist in Era 2, because if they did, they should have been in VERY high demand, especially among the constabulary.

Edited November 16, 2022 by robardin

[StormingTexan]

On 11/16/2022 at 9:28 AM, Philomath said:

But I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is like 50 years or less.

This is my guess as well. I do not think it will be a 1:1 analog to Earth. You essentially have a 3 way arms race between the Basin, South and Trell and necessity is the mother of all inventions.  Kelsier seems hell bent on starting the space race too.

[Philomath]

On 11/16/2022 at 10:11 AM, Isilel said:

I am with you about everything else, but I really want new Era 3 characters to be from more normal backgrounds, i.e. not rich descendants of the Era 1 and 2 characters and not orphaned street urchins. Middle class, working class, etc. I'd dearly like to see how awakening of Metallic talents affect lives of such people, given their potential to be life-changing. And to finally learn how new snapping happens and whether it is required for ferrings too!

Now that I think about it, adolescence must be even more stressful on Scadrial, with everyone desperately hoping to manifest a cool power, only to become more and more disappointed as years pass...

I would be fine with something like that. I just really want to hear firsthand stories about Wax as a rusting Mistborn! Not some accounts in broadsheets or comics or history books that may not be fully accurate. And I figure his kids/grandkids would have the best shot of telling some decent stories about him. But either way works for me. 

[agrabes]

I agree that the gap has to be shorter.  Based on the conversations between Harmony and Kelsier, they see the threat from Autonomy coming in a timescale of decades rather than centuries.  I think Era 3 is going to be centered around fending off that threat.  So, I would say maybe 50-100 years.

[CarTorSan]

On 16/11/2022 at 6:17 PM, robardin said:

We were also promised that Era 3 would feature a kind of "SWAT Team" of Metalborn that included a Nicroburst - something I was disappointed (and a bit disbelieving) we didn't see in Era 2. Like, we see four new metals introduced to Scadrial that were "off the charts" and unknown to the people of TFE in cadmium, bendalloy, chromium, and nicrosil... But we only ever see people Pulsing, Sliding, and Leeching!

We see how awed Marasi, Wayne, and Wax are by not-Wax's freakishly powerful Steelpushes, reasoning that he must have acquired a spike for duralumin (harvested from a poor Misting "gnat" who would have taken some digging to even discover)... Why wouldn't they have seen tag-team mega-Pushes or Pulls before with a nicroburst Misting? Or used/seen an "allomantic grenade" with a nicroburst charge in it (the Set still had their own such "grenades")?

It's like nicrobursts didn't even exist in Era 2, because if they did, they should have been in VERY high demand, especially among the constabulary.

I'd love to see a small character with this power, with Lift vibes, who basically jumps over people's backs like Max did in The Lost Metal, and gives them that burst of power. That'd be fun!

[Firesong]

Brandon said he plans for it to be between 50 and 70 years. He isn't sure what end he will do at the end, but it is in that range. 

[+robardin]

2 hours ago, CarTorSan said:

I'd love to see a small character with this power, with Lift vibes, who basically jumps over people's backs like Max did in The Lost Metal, and gives them that burst of power. That'd be fun!

Hmm. Now that you mention it, "Max" is like the PERFECT name for a Nicroburst, isn't it?

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood]

I want Max's estranged child or grandchild to be one of the main characters.

[King-A-Train]

On 22/11/2022 at 5:51 PM, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

I want Max's estranged child or grandchild to be one of the main characters.

Or a Max’s niece or nephew, child of Wax’s third or fourth child who will be a stronger Misting as they will have a Mistborn for a grandfather. 

 

[Blackhoof]

On 17/11/2022 at 4:11 AM, Isilel said:

I am with you about everything else, but I really want new Era 3 characters to be from more normal backgrounds, i.e. not rich descendants of the Era 1 and 2 characters and not orphaned street urchins. Middle class, working class, etc. I'd dearly like to see how awakening of Metallic talents affect lives of such people, given their potential to be life-changing. And to finally learn how new snapping happens and whether it is required for ferrings too!

Now that I think about it, adolescence must be even more stressful on Scadrial, with everyone desperately hoping to manifest a cool power, only to become more and more disappointed as years pass...

In terms of Snapping, I believe Brandon has confirmed that Harmony altered the process so that the trauma of being born Snaps all mistings. I assume they only manifest their powers in adolescence though.

[Underwater_Worldhopper]

On 1/3/2023 at 1:22 PM, Blackhoof said:

In terms of Snapping, I believe Brandon has confirmed that Harmony altered the process so that the trauma of being born Snaps all mistings. I assume they only manifest their powers in adolescence though.

Do you have a source for that?

[Argenti]

On 5/6/2023 at 9:19 AM, Underwater_Worldhopper said:

Do you have a source for that?

There is none, I checked Brandon just said "Sazed made this threshold on Scadrial much easier to obtain." he RAFO'ed any more detail. 

Relevant Wobs

Spoiler

Fyodor32768

In Alloy of Law, are people still Snapping?

Brandon Sanderson

Sazed chose to alter the way Snapping works. It bothered him. It does happen, but differently.

General Twitter 2011 (Nov. 14, 2011)

Spoiler

KChan

How does Snapping work after Sazed changed it? If you don't want to reveal it all right now, are there any hints you can give us?

Brandon Sanderson

He couldn't get rid of this entirely. I don't want to spoil things, but Snapping was built into Allomancy primarily because of larger-scale magical issues. This is getting deep into the issue, but it has to do with a person's spiritual makeup and a 'wounded' spirit being easier to fill with something else, kind of like a cut would let something into the bloodstream. Sazed made this threshold on Scadrial much easier to obtain.

17th Shard Forum Q&A (Sept. 25, 2012)

Spoiler

Questioner

How does Snapping work now? You said that Sazed changed it.

Brandon Sanderson

Uh, RAFO. That is a good question though.

Questioner

Not even a little hint?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah. I don't think so. 

West Jordan signing (Dec. 15, 2011)

Spoiler

Questioner

The change in how the magic (on Scadrial) interact with each other, was that done by Sazed?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes it was. You will find a theme. The snapping in Mistborn is actually a repeated theme through a lot of the different magics. Um, but what I felt at the end of the day Sazed would do something about it. So, even though that is part of the magic system, he changed that. The change to Feruchemy is more a matter of other factors such as the large amount of interbreeding that happened following...and things like that. And so a lot of people with Feruchemy sDNA mixing with people with people with Allomantic sDNA has affected the way the magics blend, so to speak. That's not done by Sazed. That's just kind of an effect.

Steelheart Seattle signing (Oct. 14, 2013)

Spoiler

Questioner

So, did Sazed change that no more Mistborn are born? Because I noticed that--I know he made Spook one-- in Alloy they talk about Mistborn...

Brandon Sanderson

The idea is-- I won't say absolutely no to Sazed's manipulation. But, there weren't any Mistborn other than him that survived. The Allomantic lines were very diluted. So, his direct descendants-- you might be able to even find one potentially now. Someone might be born, or one might have been born that didn't tell people about it. But in the general public and population, it's just, there's not as much Allomancy around... He did also change Snapping, which had an effect on it.

Firefight Miami signing (Jan. 8, 2015)

 

[Underwater_Worldhopper]

7 minutes ago, Argenti said:

There is none, I checked Brandon just said "Sazed made this threshold on Scadrial much easier to obtain." he RAFO'ed any more detail. 

Relevant Wobs

  Hide contents

Fyodor32768

In Alloy of Law, are people still Snapping?

Brandon Sanderson

Sazed chose to alter the way Snapping works. It bothered him. It does happen, but differently.

General Twitter 2011 (Nov. 14, 2011)

  Hide contents

KChan

How does Snapping work after Sazed changed it? If you don't want to reveal it all right now, are there any hints you can give us?

Brandon Sanderson

He couldn't get rid of this entirely. I don't want to spoil things, but Snapping was built into Allomancy primarily because of larger-scale magical issues. This is getting deep into the issue, but it has to do with a person's spiritual makeup and a 'wounded' spirit being easier to fill with something else, kind of like a cut would let something into the bloodstream. Sazed made this threshold on Scadrial much easier to obtain.

17th Shard Forum Q&A (Sept. 25, 2012)

  Hide contents

Questioner

How does Snapping work now? You said that Sazed changed it.

Brandon Sanderson

Uh, RAFO. That is a good question though.

Questioner

Not even a little hint?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah. I don't think so. 

West Jordan signing (Dec. 15, 2011)

  Hide contents

Questioner

The change in how the magic (on Scadrial) interact with each other, was that done by Sazed?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes it was. You will find a theme. The snapping in Mistborn is actually a repeated theme through a lot of the different magics. Um, but what I felt at the end of the day Sazed would do something about it. So, even though that is part of the magic system, he changed that. The change to Feruchemy is more a matter of other factors such as the large amount of interbreeding that happened following...and things like that. And so a lot of people with Feruchemy sDNA mixing with people with people with Allomantic sDNA has affected the way the magics blend, so to speak. That's not done by Sazed. That's just kind of an effect.

Steelheart Seattle signing (Oct. 14, 2013)

  Hide contents

Questioner

So, did Sazed change that no more Mistborn are born? Because I noticed that--I know he made Spook one-- in Alloy they talk about Mistborn...

Brandon Sanderson

The idea is-- I won't say absolutely no to Sazed's manipulation. But, there weren't any Mistborn other than him that survived. The Allomantic lines were very diluted. So, his direct descendants-- you might be able to even find one potentially now. Someone might be born, or one might have been born that didn't tell people about it. But in the general public and population, it's just, there's not as much Allomancy around... He did also change Snapping, which had an effect on it.

Firefight Miami signing (Jan. 8, 2015)

 

Oh, so the birth thing isn't confirmed? I've been thinking about the modified Snapping recently, I got excited thinking he finally confirmed what it was

[cometaryorbit]

On 11/17/2022 at 4:12 PM, StormingTexan said:

This is my guess as well. I do not think it will be a 1:1 analog to Earth. You essentially have a 3 way arms race between the Basin, South and Trell and necessity is the mother of all inventions.  Kelsier seems hell bent on starting the space race too.

This is true, but one big factor will be working in the opposite direction- population and scale. The Basin population is about 10 million as of TLM, and the Roughs seem to be very thinly populated so the total Northern population is probably 11 million or less.

The US population in the mid-1910s was about 100 million, and the US was deeply involved in trading with the rest of the world (though obviously WW1 temporarily interfered). The Basin is basically isolated, and likely to remain isolated if things move toward cold war conditions with the South.

They're likely to hit their demographic transition pretty soon, too. What will their population peak at? Probably a very low value by our standards.

Their geographical scope is also very small - the Basin seems to be somewhat smaller than Texas. And it's incredibly centralized - nearly half the population is in Elendel itself.

That's going to limit advancement in several ways:

1) there's just fewer people working on things.

2) the extreme centralization + small population means that the intellectual community will probably be very strongly influenced by a few key individuals on each subject. Most or all the scientists studying X will know each other personally. So "accepted wisdom" will probably be stronger than in our history.

3) new mineral resources will be harder to get. We use in our technology all kinds of things that weren't relevant 100 years ago (lithium for batteries is a big current example, but there's a ton of them). It'd be hard to have a half-the-world mining/refining/distribution infrastructure with only a few tens of millions of people total.

So these might balance out with the pressures toward faster development, and hints from "outside" - whatever Kelsier's going to do, and whatever they find out from Telsin's projects. 50 to 70 years seems reasonable in that light.

Edited May 7, 2023 by cometaryorbit