Flaming Coinshot Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 With new info from Lost Metal, Spoiler Scadrial has Harmonium/Trellium nukes. Scadrial has nukes, and a far more powerful navy as well as a much more versatile airforce and rocket delivery system. Roshar would be stuck on defense. In that, it would be a tough nut to crack. Also, Lost Metal is set before Stormlight (or at least Stormlight 3), and with the speed their advancing, it's not gonna be very pretty. Also, for the anti-stormlight bomb, Elendel is the largest known city in the Cosmere by a lot. Maybe total population Roshar will top off Scadrial, but in terms of potential, Rosharan cities are smaller than Earth cities at a similar time even with Soulcasters. Meanwhile, Scadrian cities are about the same, if not larger as Earth counterparts during our Industrial Revolution. And Roshar doesn't have the industrial capabilities to make enough to wipe out the major cities of Scadrial. Meanwhile, (spoilers from Lost Metal above), Scadrial has the technology and means to decimate massive amounts of Roshar or Rosharan-style armies at once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 2. They do not know how to make perfect gemstones by TLM 3. They do not know how to Elsecall from planet to planet, OR from the Cognitive realm to the physical If we are to assume that they learn this, shouldn’t the Scadrians also get some similar scientific breakthrough? (They almost have the technology to make spikes without killing their victim already, could be useful)  Steel ferrings with leecher-grenades probably should kill most KR. Only a few KR have plate, and a KR without Stormlight die easily. (Most soldiers with a gun and a Leecher-grenade could probably kill a KR) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Hundreds of miles? First off, they're coinshots, second off, no one's making a perimeter that covers hundreds of miles. They don't need a perimeter that big, They just need to destroy railways that far out, Scadrians don't have the ability to move large numbers of men quickly otherwise. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Additionally, those suppressor fabrial's range is garbage, and they seem to require you fine tune them for the power you work against. The range is determined by the size of the gemstones, so larger ones will fix the issue. And No, they don't have to be Tai-na sized the Siblings ones were only as big as a couple of fists. And with the knowlege the Rosharans have with Intent and Tones they can easily adjust them to suppress Metalborn. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Besides that, only Odium's forces currently know how to make them, and they require sentient spren. Spren volunteer to become fabrials, and with the Siblings help they could easily be reproduced. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Also, they wouldn't have to run back, because they'd just blow the Oathgate to pieces with a Harmonium-ettmetal bomb. How are they going to move a generator of sufficient size? And the first Windrunner that looks at them will kill them. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: He didn't hint towards anti-investiture, Raboniel figured it out on her own. Yes he did, Raboniel said he mentioned using the opposite of Honor to destroy him. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Are there? Doesn't strike me that those things die very often. The gemshearts might be buried very deep within the rock at the ocean floor. For all we know, the Tai-na might just go out into the deep ocean to die. You can't rely on access to those things. They fight each other(WoR 184) and they do die near enough to the surface that people can still live on their corpse. Spoiler Lurcher What happens when a Reshi island dies? Brandon Sanderson So, it becomes that big old shell, and eventually-- shells, they last a long time, but people are gonna move off of it. Lurcher Will people try to get the gemheart? Brandon Sanderson Yeah, people will try to get the gemheart. Salt Lake City ComicCon 2017 (Sept. 22, 2017)  49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Alright. Still, do you really think it'll be easy to perfectly cut such large gemstones? There's a reason most gems are cut so poorly. It doesn't matter how hard it is, with Cohesion you can try as many times as you want, possibly even actively having the gemstone take perfect shape. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: And when the Ghostbloods among your ranks blow up your Stormlight reserves and the Oathgate, leaving you stranded? What then? How are ghostbloods going to get their own spren? If it does happen kill them in a sufficiently brutal way that none of the others are willing to try it, and open a Bondsmith portal and do it again. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Intent, of course. If Kelsier believes it won't create Lerasium, it won't. The Set didn't think they were splitting Harmonium, so they didn't. Wax did, so he did. And the difference between Ruin and Preservation's power is extremely slight, so it wouldn't have as large of an effect as you imply. He is going to use it to make Atium, Marsh is using it to make Atium. Unless there is an imbalance one of them would discover the Lerasium pretty quickly. It would be a stupid lie to make. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: We don't know that. There could easily be something extremely special about the gemstones. Maybe they need to have exactly the same dimensions. That'd be hard to replace. That's a rather large assumption. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Alright. They still only have 1 Elsecaller and no Willshapers. They have dozens of Willshapers, and Elsecallers will become more prominent. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: The revelation that all of the Radiant spren thought it better to commit suicide than to remain with their Radiants? Yeah, not very convincing. Yes, that's why dozens of Honorspren immediately decided to go with Adolin and find knights. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Harmony said that Wayne could potentially keep the boat away from the city by pushing it. That's not something an unboosted Mistborn can do. That's not something anyone with less power than TLR could do without Duralumin. And it was a 1/100 chance. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: They made a portal from one planet to another in the same system. No guarantee that'll work across however many million light years separates Scadrial and Roshar. Zero evidence against it. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Rosharans have not shown the technological ability to do this. What technology? Open a portal, dig it up and bring it through. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Thunderclasts are not going to help Radiants. Suppression Fabrials are only used by Odium's forces, and the KR haven't replicated them yet. Neither will the Malwish help the north. And the ghostbloods will likely wait until the last possible second to do anything using it as a way to bring in a new member. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: We don't know that'll work. Do you have any evidence against it? 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Skybreakers work for Odium. Which side is attacking again? Because both isn't happening till Era 3 or 4, and I don't want to argue a completely unrealistic scenario. Well I do, that's what this thread was for. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: One Elsecaller supported by Lightweavers. Because of Ghostblood spies, the strike force walks into a trap and gets murdered by Marsh. Multiple Elsecallers who immediately Soulcast anyone who attacks them, and anyone too invested for that gets trapped in aluminum. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Alright, they take the Roughs. So what? Any large-scale attack is impossible, and in the meantime you've got Ghostbloods, Mistborn, and Kandra all working together to destroy your supply lines. Even if you managed to bring perfect Tai-na gemhearts, what's to stop them from being destroyed by saboteurs? Kelsier's specialty is sneaking into places and stealing stuff, and he's made an entire organization of similarly talented people. Kelsier couldn't make it past the Suppressors, Kandra are virtually useless as they can't imitate anyone important, and will be immediately spotted. There are no supplyines, just a direct route from their frontline to Urithiru. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Drop it how? Windrunners without Stormlight that can't lash the bombs without blowing them up? Those bombs would have to be absolutely massive to destroy a city. regular-sized spheres don't even kill Fused at point-blank range. You'll need Tai-na-sized gemstones do do something like that. Release it from the CR. And the gem used to kill Raboniel was only partially filled, and she only lived because she can heal. A single gram of Stormlight-Anti-stormlight is over 178Million Kilotons of TNT that's more powerful than any nuclear bomb ever designed. It would take fist sized gems at most to make. 49 minutes ago, Nameless said: Why would they surrender? Even if this plan somehow went perfectly, South Scadrial is still fully operational. Also, Windrunners would never stand for blowing up a city of ten million innocents like that. Doing so would cause quite the schism among the Radiants. Even if I accept the practically impossible scenario of Odium's forces and the Coalition working together, ignoring Radiant oaths is on the same level as me saying "Harmony gets over his stalemate and smites all the attackers." Innocents? The home-base of the people engaging in nightly assassination of their leaders according to your battle plans? The ones who tried to kill their queen and have been meddling on their world for years? The ones planning to control them? Those innocents? 24 minutes ago, Flaming Coinshot said: With new info from Lost Metal,  Reveal hidden contents Scadrial has Harmonium/Trellium nukes. Scadrial has nukes, and a far more powerful navy as well as a much more versatile airforce and rocket delivery system. Roshar would be stuck on defense. In that, it would be a tough nut to crack. Also, Lost Metal is set before Stormlight (or at least Stormlight 3), and with the speed their advancing, it's not gonna be very pretty. Also, for the anti-stormlight bomb, Elendel is the largest known city in the Cosmere by a lot. Maybe total population Roshar will top off Scadrial, but in terms of potential, Rosharan cities are smaller than Earth cities at a similar time even with Soulcasters. Meanwhile, Scadrian cities are about the same, if not larger as Earth counterparts during our Industrial Revolution. And Roshar doesn't have the industrial capabilities to make enough to wipe out the major cities of Scadrial. Meanwhile, (spoilers from Lost Metal above), Scadrial has the technology and means to decimate massive amounts of Roshar or Rosharan-style armies at once. Actually SA5 is before AoL Spoiler Questioner You said that there’s gonna be a time jump between [Stormlight] Book Five and Book Six, the two arcs. And also going into Era Three of Mistborn. Era Three and Era Four, are they gonna go way past what’s going on in the second arc? Brandon Sanderson So, Era One of Stormlight. Break for ten years-ish in-world. (I have to write Book Six to know exactly how long it’s going to be, but somewhere around that.) Wax and Wayne happens during that break, chronologically. And Era Three of Mistborn; I would say seventy years, might be closer to fifty. But either way, it’s going to be post-Stormlight [Ten]. We’re getting a little disjointed in our timelines, just as the writing balances out, but I think it’s gonna work out. I don’t think they should be giving too many spoilers to each other. I do have to kind of talk around things now and then. Dragonsteel 2022 (Nov. 14, 2022)  16 minutes ago, Fenris said: 2. They do not know how to make perfect gemstones by TLM 3. They do not know how to Elsecall from planet to planet, OR from the Cognitive realm to the physical If we are to assume that they learn this, shouldn’t the Scadrians also get some similar scientific breakthrough? (They almost have the technology to make spikes without killing their victim already, could be useful) As stated above TLM is ten years or so ahead of SA 5. 17 minutes ago, Fenris said: Steel ferrings with leecher-grenades probably should kill most KR. Only a few KR have plate, and a KR without Stormlight die easily. (Most soldiers with a gun and a Leecher-grenade could probably kill a KR) grenades are pretty rare and Chromium mistings more so. Stormlight in aluminum lined pounches would be unaffected, and Sprensheilds can defend a radiant while they replenish. 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therunner Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Nameless said: If they can use the medallion's storage feruchemically, they should be able to burn it as well. With hemalurgy you have the issue of gaining allomantic powers identity keyed to one person and feruchemy powers keyed to another, but unkeyed metalminds should still remain unkeyed. We thought that having a spike was sufficient to Compound, and that is wrong. No one actually ever burned an unkeyed metalmind and successfully Compounded as far as we know. It is entirely possible that Allomancer still could not burn them and get effect. I doubt that while Hemalurgy no longer provides such power, a much less restrictive system could allow Compounding. Quote The Set hadn't finished their rockets to the point that they could launch from Bilming to Elendel, but they did have a range of 30-40 miles. (Not 60, that was my fault) Actually no Set did not finish the rockets at all, Telsin admits they never worked on page 429. Autonomy wanted them to figure it out, but they failed. The best Scadrial has are artillery on Bilming ships and they have range far below 20 miles (again, per The Lost Metal). Quote An alien invasion will do wonders for unification. And until then, they don't really need much Harmonium or Trellium to anihilate the enemy forces. A couple barrels of the stuff had the potential to wipe out not just Elendel and Bilming (100 miles apart, according to the map) but also the surrounding cities. They have at least a trellium spike from Wax, and probably enough Harmonium to react with that, so getting at least one nuke-sized explosion shouldn't be too hard. Large kiloton range at least. vastly more powerful than any nuke we've ever made. No couple of barrels did not have potential to do that. That statement (blowing up Elendel, Bilming and surrounding cities) comes from Harmony, literally two sentences after admitting he has no idea how destructive it will be. He only expresses fear that it could do that, not certainty. And since he a sentence before that he almost literally quotes fears of real world physicists about nuclear bombs (that they would set atmosphere on fire, which is dumb), I think we can safely discard both statements as hyperbolic. I sincerely doubt that a first of its kind nuclear bomb would immediately be far beyond any nuke we created after literal decades of study and experiments. Scadrians WMDs would have no development ahead, and topic of Era 3 is cold war, so. And while alien invasion could do wonders for unification, the animosity between South and North could also be exploited prior to invasion. And similarly, I am sure Odium would not mind being helped with removing two further Shards. So either both sides are united, and we don't need to discuss internal politics, or neither are and then it becomes very complicated. Quote There might not be others. And the Willshapers are neutral. So unless we allow for complete unification, Roshar will have very limited access to inter-realm travel. Fair enough, I misremembered there being other Elsecallers (mixed up with 3 Truthwatchers). Though this was ~8 years prior to TLM, and prior to revelation about Recreance, which was the major reason spren did not want to bond. So by now there could be many more as there are people and there are Inkspren, it is only matter of convincing them. But Roshar will still have greater access then Scadrial, especially if Jasnah would be empowered by Bondsmith. Unchained Bondsmith and Elsecaller teleported people from Ashyn to Roshar, which is quite a feat (though still only within system). https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849 Quote It only took a tiny shaving of Trellium to get enough Lerasium to make Wayne a boosted Mistborn. They could make dozens or hundreds of Mistborn with what they've got. An invasion will likely unbalance Harmony, and Wax knows that his explosion produced Lerasium, as he's a Mistborn now, so they won't have to rely on Harmony. Not boosted Mistborn, regular Mistborn. After some experimentation maybe they could, if they get lucky. Wax does not know what exactly was it, and it could have been the secondary explosion for all he and we know. So they will waste some, and maybe get a result, but Mistborn are still at most comparable to 3rd Oath Windrunner in a fight. And those are more easily replaceable. Quote Whichever side's invading will have to deal with realm transfer, limiting their numbers. And one of those sides has access to means of realmatic transfer (Roshar) and the other does not. Oathgates were crafted, so new ones could be too, if Sibling is willing to talk about that. If not, boosted Elsecaller would be enough to move couple of thousands of people places (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849). 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Intent, of course. If Kelsier believes it won't create Lerasium, it won't. The Set didn't think they were splitting Harmonium, so they didn't. Wax did, so he did. And the difference between Ruin and Preservation's power is extremely slight, so it wouldn't have as large of an effect as you imply. That does not explain why Kandra did not succeed in replicating Wax's experiment. The Intent would have been the same in both. Quote Thunderclasts are not going to help Radiants. Suppression Fabrials are only used by Odium's forces, and the KR haven't replicated them yet. Suppressor fabrials are all around Urithiru, it is kind of a plot point in RoW, and those are of the Coalition forces. Since they created Bridge 4 in under a single year, I think they could replicate those in ~7-8 years from RoW till TLM. Conjecture of course, but not unreasonable one, considering they have working examples and already shown capability in reverse engineering them. Quote One Elsecaller supported by Lightweavers. Because of Ghostblood spies, the strike force walks into a trap and gets murdered by Marsh. What Ghostblood spies? Most are known to Shallan, and she is about to start hunting them down at the end of RoW. In Elendel Basin they have seemingly less then 20 full agents, and that is the place they are supposed to be protecting. Kelsier admits to them being too weak to operate openly and relying on stealth to avoid being destroyed. Which is an advantage they no longer have on Roshar. 36 minutes ago, Flaming Coinshot said: With new info from Lost Metal,  Hide contents Scadrial has Harmonium/Trellium nukes. Scadrial has nukes, and a far more powerful navy as well as a much more versatile airforce and rocket delivery system. Roshar would be stuck on defense. In that, it would be a tough nut to crack. Also, Lost Metal is set before Stormlight (or at least Stormlight 3), and with the speed their advancing, it's not gonna be very pretty. Also, for the anti-stormlight bomb, Elendel is the largest known city in the Cosmere by a lot. Maybe total population Roshar will top off Scadrial, but in terms of potential, Rosharan cities are smaller than Earth cities at a similar time even with Soulcasters. Meanwhile, Scadrian cities are about the same, if not larger as Earth counterparts during our Industrial Revolution. And Roshar doesn't have the industrial capabilities to make enough to wipe out the major cities of Scadrial. Meanwhile, (spoilers from Lost Metal above), Scadrial has the technology and means to decimate massive amounts of Roshar or Rosharan-style armies at once. Scadrial has weaker airforce (wooden slow flying ships vs Windrunners), no rockets (see above). And TLM is set at minimum 7-8 years after SA5, (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15877), at most 10. Roshar has soulcasting, which puts vast majority of industry to shame. Elendel is largest city in Cosmere ~5 million people, but Roshar has far larger population (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3466). 27 minutes ago, Fenris said: They do not know how to Elsecall from planet to planet, OR from the Cognitive realm to the physical They know about Cognitive to Physical, Jasnah demonstrates that at the end of WoR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 The Malwish and North will not unite in the face invasion. Autonomy almost invaded and the Malwish used it as an opportunity to get the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tglassy Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 Jasnah could only go from the cognitive to the physical realm because she was near a perpendicularity.  But this is getting pointless. It's devolving in to "But my attack dog has a forcefield," "But my dinosaur eats forcefield dogs!" We don't know how bullets work with Shardplate, but hammers do pretty well against dead plate, so I can only assume that a hail of bullets would break, then shatter, deadplate., before they have a chance to get close. Anyone without any plate would be gone in seconds. Only two Radiants even HAVE living plate right now, so we know next to nothing about its capabilities. So we can't factor that in. I suppose you could give dead plate to the radiants who don't have their own, and their stormlight would keep it going, but that would drain their Stormlight FAST.  Shard blades are great, but they'd need to get in close to use them. But the ENTIRE army would be shooting with bullets. So they'd have to come in under a storm of bullets and grenades. Jasnah, with LIVING plate, could barely hold her own against a bunch of people with spears and ropes.  Rosharans have the Fourth Bridge, Scadrians have flying ships with guns and cannons. The Fourth Bridge wouldn't last a single engagement. Floating platforms would go down just as fast. Just takes a single explosion. The Rosharan army is pointless. The entire army uses spears and bows. They'd be mowed down instantly. Which means their only saving grace is their Knights, none of which have armor right now. They'd go down so quick, it wouldn't even be funny. Skybreakers and Windrunners don't mean anything when your rifle can shoot hundreds of yards. Being able to heal means nothing when you're hit over and over by dozens of bullets. Elsecallers can't elsecall from the cognative to the physical without a perpendicularity.  Gravitation and Adhesion don't mean anything here, except to simulate catapults.  Regrowth would keep Edgedancers and Truthwatchers alive for a while, but once their stormlight ran out, that would be it. Lightweaving would be useful, cause they could make illusions, but the bullets are EVERYWHERE.  Soulcasting would theoretically help if they knew what they were going up against, making everything out of aluminum. But if they know what they're up against, the Scadrians do too, and they have Aluminum as well. Unless the Rosharan Knights all manage to get ahold of Living Plate, as their forces stand RIGHT NOW, Scadrial wipes the floor with them. There would be no other answer. With Firearms and modern explosives, they almost don't even need metalborn. But they ALSO have metalborn. People who can move so fast you can't see them, who can take the Rosharan weapons and armor and use it against them, who can demoralize the entire army.  Wait until it's discovered that they can create Lerasium again. The rosharans are learning new cool things they can do with fabrials and their anti light bombs, which don't even compare to the destructive power of the new bombs the Scadrians now have. But once the ENTIRE population of Scadrial is Mistborn, that's it. Game's over. One single five foot tall Mistborn took on an entire army of Koloss. What would she do to a batallion of Rosharan soldiers?  2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NameIess Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 @Frustration, our discussion is going nowhere. We need to establish the scenario better, because currently we're arguing two different scenarios. You seem to be arguing based on a scenario in which every native Scadrian and every native Rosharan decides to put aside all their differences and kill each other. Let me be clear: I have no interest in continuing a discussion based on that hypothetical. If you want to argue pure combat potential, we can do Radiant vs. Mistborn/Feruchemist, but just assuming that the Parshmen, humans, Sleepless, and neutral Parshendi all suddenly decided to band together to conquer Scadrial is just too much of a leap for me. Additionally, you allow that every one of the factions on Roshar, even the ones who've been fighting for literal millennia join together, but then say this: 36 minutes ago, Frustration said: The Malwish and North will not unite in the face invasion. Autonomy almost invaded and the Malwish used it as an opportunity to get the bands. You give Roshar every possible consideration, give them access to every possible use for their magic including ones that could take years of research, and ignore all the limits related to characterization and politics that they have been shown to have, while giving Scadrial the inverse treatment. Unless we set a different scenario, I think that further discussion with you is useless. 59 minutes ago, therunner said: Actually no Set did not finish the rockets at all, Telsin admits they never worked on page 429. Autonomy wanted them to figure it out, but they failed. The best Scadrial has are artillery on Bilming ships and they have range far below 20 miles (again, per The Lost Metal). They worked, just not well enough. They did tests that had a 40 mile max range. 1 hour ago, therunner said: No couple of barrels did not have potential to do that. That statement (blowing up Elendel, Bilming and surrounding cities) comes from Harmony, literally two sentences after admitting he has no idea how destructive it will be. He only expresses fear that it could do that, not certainty. And since he a sentence before that he almost literally quotes fears of real world physicists about nuclear bombs (that they would set atmosphere on fire, which is dumb), I think we can safely discard both statements as hyperbolic. We saw that a blast of less than a tenth of 3 ounces of Harmonium destroyed Wax's blast box. And while Harmony might be speculating, he is far beyond any mortal scientist in terms of cognitive ability, so I think it is safe to take him at his word as to the destruction levels of the bomb 1 hour ago, therunner said: I sincerely doubt that a first of its kind nuclear bomb would immediately be far beyond any nuke we created after literal decades of study and experiments. Scadrians WMDs would have no development ahead, and topic of Era 3 is cold war, so. Not a nuclear bomb, an antimatter bomb. A cold war doesn't necessitate constant upscaling of nukes, just that both sides have the firepower to obliterate each other completely, meaning outright war is suicide no matter who 'wins'. 1 hour ago, therunner said: And while alien invasion could do wonders for unification, the animosity between South and North could also be exploited prior to invasion. And similarly, I am sure Odium would not mind being helped with removing two further Shards. So either both sides are united, and we don't need to discuss internal politics, or neither are and then it becomes very complicated. This is a different Odium, and he is still locked to Roshar. And I am more interested in the discussion with neither side being united. 1 hour ago, therunner said: Fair enough, I misremembered there being other Elsecallers (mixed up with 3 Truthwatchers). Though this was ~8 years prior to TLM, and prior to revelation about Recreance, which was the major reason spren did not want to bond. So by now there could be many more as there are people and there are Inkspren, it is only matter of convincing them. It is possible that a few more Elsecallers will be around, but I think the revelation that the Radiants and their spren decided together that it was too dangerous for them to remain bonded will keep many spren, particularly the very logic-minded Inkspren, from seeking out bonds. 1 hour ago, therunner said: Not boosted Mistborn, regular Mistborn. After some experimentation maybe they could, if they get lucky. Wax does not know what exactly was it, and it could have been the secondary explosion for all he and we know. So they will waste some, and maybe get a result, but Mistborn are still at most comparable to 3rd Oath Windrunner in a fight. And those are more easily replaceable. Wayne was boosted, as Harmony suggested that he could keep the entire ship from moving forwards just by using A-steel. No unboosted Mistborn could pull that off. 1 hour ago, therunner said: And one of those sides has access to means of realmatic transfer (Roshar) and the other does not. Oathgates were crafted, so new ones could be too, if Sibling is willing to talk about that. If not, boosted Elsecaller would be enough to move couple of thousands of people places (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15849). The distance might be too great for the Elsecaller to transport, and there aren't any Oathgate spren. They might have been made with Honor's aid for all we know. 1 hour ago, therunner said: That does not explain why Kandra did not succeed in replicating Wax's experiment. The Intent would have been the same in both. They did, but Sazed is lying to Kelsier so that he'll be unable to produce Lerasium. 1 hour ago, therunner said: Suppressor fabrials are all around Urithiru, it is kind of a plot point in RoW, and those are of the Coalition forces. Since they created Bridge 4 in under a single year, I think they could replicate those in ~7-8 years from RoW till TLM. Conjecture of course, but not unreasonable one, considering they have working examples and already shown capability in reverse engineering them. Fair, but they'd still have to get Preservation's tone somehow. 1 hour ago, therunner said: What Ghostblood spies? Most are known to Shallan, and she is about to start hunting them down at the end of RoW. In Elendel Basin they have seemingly less then 20 full agents, and that is the place they are supposed to be protecting. Kelsier admits to them being too weak to operate openly and relying on stealth to avoid being destroyed. Which is an advantage they no longer have on Roshar. Since when has Shallan known any Ghostblood operatives besides Mraize, Iyatil, and the ones at that meeting? As for their presence on Roshar, they killed two Highprinces and basically rule the underworld, so they obviously have a reasonable amount of agents. Enough to do recon, sabotage, and assassination at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tglassy said: Jasnah could only go from the cognitive to the physical realm because she was near a perpendicularity.  Brandon has said she could do it if she knew how. 32 minutes ago, Tglassy said: We don't know how bullets work with Shardplate, Yes we do, Brandon has said it would take 2-3 shots to the same section of plate to break it. 34 minutes ago, Tglassy said: Rosharans have the Fourth Bridge, Scadrians have flying ships with guns and cannons. The Fourth Bridge wouldn't last a single engagement. Floating platforms would go down just as fast. Just takes a single explosion. Scadrians airships don't have any weapons with serious recoil, they are too light to handle it. 21 minutes ago, Nameless said: @Frustration, our discussion is going nowhere. We need to establish the scenario better, because currently we're arguing two different scenarios. You seem to be arguing based on a scenario in which every native Scadrian and every native Rosharan decides to put aside all their differences and kill each other. Let me be clear: I have no interest in continuing a discussion based on that hypothetical. If you want to argue pure combat potential, we can do Radiant vs. Mistborn/Feruchemist, but just assuming that the Parshmen, humans, Sleepless, and neutral Parshendi all suddenly decided to band together to conquer Scadrial is just too much of a leap for me. Additionally, you allow that every one of the factions on Roshar, even the ones who've been fighting for literal millennia join together, but then say this: You give Roshar every possible consideration, give them access to every possible use for their magic including ones that could take years of research, and ignore all the limits related to characterization and politics that they have been shown to have, while giving Scadrial the inverse treatment. Unless we set a different scenario, I think that further discussion with you is useless. My point with that statement is that unification of either side is equally unlikely. If you want to keep the factions as they currently stand that is fine, and I will agree to it. However that means that the north has no airships, a single skimmer, only a handful of medallions, maybe a dozen or so grenades, and only a limited amount of Harmonium with no way to get more, and the Malwish will not help them. Or we can assume both sides are unified, which I think is more fun, but I will allow you to choose. 26 minutes ago, Nameless said: @Frustration Wayne was boosted, as Harmony suggested that he could keep the entire ship from moving forwards just by using A-steel. No unboosted Mistborn could pull that off. Elend could not have done that without duralumin. 29 minutes ago, Nameless said: @Frustration, The distance might be too great for the Elsecaller to transport, and there aren't any Oathgate spren. They might have been made with Honor's aid for all we know. Do you have any evidence for the distance being too great? And the spren are just light and Inkspren, though they have been increased in size. And they call the Sibling "Parent" not Honor, but the Sibling. 33 minutes ago, Nameless said: @Frustration, They did, but Sazed is lying to Kelsier so that he'll be unable to produce Lerasium. Source? 34 minutes ago, Nameless said: @FrustrationFair, but they'd still have to get Preservation's tone somehow. Singers should be able to hear it, and if need be they could get the mists to listen to. 36 minutes ago, Nameless said: @Frustration, Since when has Shallan known any Ghostblood operatives besides Mraize, Iyatil, and the ones at that meeting? As for their presence on Roshar, they killed two Highprinces and basically rule the underworld, so they obviously have a reasonable amount of agents. Enough to do recon, sabotage, and assassination at least. She knows their top operatives, and has ten years to hunt them. And it's really hard to kill a Knight. 51 minutes ago, Tglassy said:  their anti light bombs, which don't even compare to the destructive power of the new bombs the Scadrians now have. Anti-light is more powerful than anti-matter according to Brandon. It's not just more powerful than what Scadrial has it's a candle next to the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NameIess Posted November 19, 2022 Report Share Posted November 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Frustration said: My point with that statement is that unification of either side is equally unlikely. If you want to keep the factions as they currently stand that is fine, and I will agree to it. However that means that the north has no airships, a single skimmer, only a handful of medallions, maybe a dozen or so grenades, and only a limited amount of Harmonium with no way to get more, and the Malwish will not help them. Or we can assume both sides are unified, which I think is more fun, but I will allow you to choose. The Malwish very well might help them once an actual invasion took place, rather than a simple bomb threat. And assuming Roshar wants to conquer the entire planet, they'd have to go for South Scadrial eventually. 7 minutes ago, Frustration said: Elend could not have done that without duralumin. Well, Harmony said he could have done it. So are you saying Wayne was more powerful than Elend? 10 minutes ago, Frustration said: Do you have any evidence for the distance being too great? And the spren are just light and Inkspren, though they have been increased in size. And they call the Sibling "Parent" not Honor, but the Sibling. Do you have evidence for the distance not being too great? Or for the spren being simply light and Inkspren? 11 minutes ago, Frustration said: Source? He said all the Lerasium was destroyed, which was a lie as Wax produced it. And before you say that Wax's explosion was different, it was. All previous explosion didn't make any godmetals, likely because there was no Intent to do so. Just as those explosions produced no godmetals, if you believe that the explosion won't produce Lerasium, it won't. Since Harmony didn't want Kelsier to make Lerasium, he told him it was impossible. 14 minutes ago, Frustration said: Singers should be able to hear it, and if need be they could get the mists to listen to. Those mists would have Harmony's tone, not Preservations. 14 minutes ago, Frustration said: She knows their top operatives, and has ten years to hunt them. And it's really hard to kill a Knight. Ghostblood operatives are extremely talented, and we've seen that they have access to some extremely powerful Investitures. 17 minutes ago, Frustration said: Anti-light is more powerful than anti-matter according to Brandon. It's not just more powerful than what Scadrial has it's a candle next to the sun. That doesn't really line up with the books. Gavilar's gemstone was perfect and filled with anti-light, but the explosion it generated only destroyed one room. fist-sized gemstones aren't going to be destroying a city. Even a gemheart wouldn't get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmcclure7 Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 On 11/15/2022 at 0:10 PM, Frustration said: Alright, given everything we've learned in LM, if Roshar and Scadrial we're to fight who would win? For the purposes of this thread we will be assuming that each side only gets their native powers and people. So Scadrial doesn't get the Ghostbloods, Roshar doesn't get Nightblood. Shards and Dawnshards will not be considered. The invasion of Scadrial :ends before it begins. The invasion of Roshar: Pyrrhic victory for Rochar. The Rosharians use there easy access to the cognitive realm to destroy the Scadrian supline, yet Guns, alomancers and harmonium do massive damage to the Rosharians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmcclure7 Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 On 11/17/2022 at 8:57 PM, Nesh said: Honestly, it's the high ideal Radiants that are the big problem for Scadrial. Getting past the live Shardpate and insane healing factor of Radiants. That's the kind of thing that requires something like a tank, or a duralumin/nicrosil Steelpush. Not to mention Shardblades against anyone who isn't a Bloodmaker. They may really needto get Mistborn back. There isn't that many of them. There problem for sure but not as big as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Nameless said: The Malwish very well might help them once an actual invasion took place, rather than a simple bomb threat. And assuming Roshar wants to conquer the entire planet, they'd have to go for South Scadrial eventually. They would have to go eventually, but I doubt they would help the north. The only reason they cared about the bombs was that they could use it to get the bands. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Well, Harmony said he could have done it. So are you saying Wayne was more powerful than Elend? I do not recall Harmony saying "you can stop the ship without duralumin" 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Do you have evidence for the distance not being too great? For future reference if you want to argue that something can't be used in a similar manner to how it has already been shown to work burden of proof is on you. Instances like this is just asking your opponent to prove a negative. But in this case yes I do have proof, because the portals work like Oathgates and go through the SR Spoiler Questioner Did humans come to Roshar through Shadesmar? Brandon Sanderson It is technology or magic closer to how the Oathgates work. But it was like that. It's not canon but right now that's what I have. It's not canon because there are certain things I have to work out before that can work... By the way I'll just say to the tape recording that I haven't canonized, like for instance if they traveled to Shadesmar to get to Shinovar from Ashyn. Right now I have that not being via Shadesmar, but the mechanics of that might not work out, and I might have to default to Shadesmar. So there's certain things, you'll see, where I say, "This isn't the canon answer, it's where I have things right now." Overlord Jebus So Urithiru might end up being a spaceship after all. Brandon Sanderson It's not that. Right now I have them using something closer to Oathgating, but it opens up a huge can of worms, when I'm not requiring direct-- When I'm sending through Spiritual Realm it opens up cans of worms, and I have to just make sure the mechanics on that are tight before I do it. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/324/#e9307  1 hour ago, Nameless said: Or for the spren being simply light and Inkspren? Aside from the visual similarities and the fact that those two orders are the ones with Transformation, and that they used the Oathgates as a way to learn how to make surge fabrials with Radiant spren, no. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: He said all the Lerasium was destroyed, which was a lie as Wax produced it. And before you say that Wax's explosion was different, it was. All previous explosion didn't make any godmetals, likely because there was no Intent to do so. Just as those explosions produced no godmetals, if you believe that the explosion won't produce Lerasium, it won't. Since Harmony didn't want Kelsier to make Lerasium, he told him it was impossible. So if you want to split it but think that maybe it will only make Atium it will? How does that work? Perception is powerful but that's asking a lot. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Those mists would have Harmony's tone, not Preservations. All metallic arts are powered by Harmony. But even if they needed the Tone of Preservation for whatever reason they can just split it like they do with towerlight. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Ghostblood operatives are extremely talented, and we've seen that they have access to some extremely powerful Investitures. Decently powerful. Enough to overcome a Radiant in Urithiru no. Ilaytil was impressed by Shallan's ability to get into Dalinar's camp, they aren't that competent. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: That doesn't really line up with the books. Gavilar's gemstone was perfect and filled with anti-light, but the explosion it generated only destroyed one room. fist-sized gemstones aren't going to be destroying a city. Even a gemheart wouldn't get close. How much Voidlight did they mix it with? And even if Gavilar's sphere was a broam that's 2^3 millimeters. Given standard density of air that's only about .0001225 g. Even assuming 100% reaction that's about 2 tons of TNT. That's a bit more than a room but with sturdy stone walls it likely wouldn't spread much beyond a single room. Edited November 20, 2022 by Frustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmcclure7 Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 On 11/15/2022 at 4:33 PM, Wadders said: I am not sure how well shardplate would hold up against semi-automatic rifle fire. In additon people with weight medallions shooting the heavy guns that wax has been using would be pretty devastating. Probably depends on how much stormlight it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NameIess Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Frustration said: I do not recall Harmony saying "you can stop the ship without duralumin" He said that Wayne would hold the ship in place while they figured out some other way to defuse the bombs. Can't do that with one big duraluminum push, it would just stop then start again. 1 hour ago, Frustration said: For future reference if you want to argue that something can't be used in a similar manner to how it has already been shown to work burden of proof is on you. Instances like this is just asking your opponent to prove a negative. Travelling between planets in a solar system is very different than travelling between solar systems. Saying that because you can do one you can do the other is like saying because we can shoot a rocket to mars we can shoot a rocket to Alpha Centauri. 2 hours ago, Frustration said: But in this case yes I do have proof, because the portals work like Oathgates and go through the SR  Reveal hidden contents And? we don't know the mechanics of Spiritual realm travel. It is possible to travel between systems with it, but for all we know Elsecaller/Bondsmith combos might not be able to do it, or it might need Shardic aid. 2 hours ago, Frustration said: Aside from the visual similarities and the fact that those two orders are the ones with Transformation, and that they used the Oathgates as a way to learn how to make surge fabrials with Radiant spren, no. I think you mean Transformation, and even if they are just ink and light spren, they are obviously amplified in some way, and we don't know how that modification is done. Perhaps they need a huge amount of Investiture that can only be obtained by a Shard splintering off a piece of themself. 2 hours ago, Frustration said: All metallic arts are powered by Harmony. But even if they needed the Tone of Preservation for whatever reason they can just split it like they do with towerlight. Mists are different from stormlight. Their techniques won't work the same way. 2 hours ago, Frustration said: Decently powerful. Enough to overcome a Radiant in Urithiru no. Ilaytil was impressed by Shallan's ability to get into Dalinar's camp, they aren't that competent. They have unkeyed investiture and Mraize has at least one aether. Besides that, they don't need to kill Shallan to sabotage supply lines. As for their competence, they killed two Highprinces and dismantled the Sons of Honor led by Ialai in just one year. Iyatil was impressed by the way Shallan managed to get into Dalinar's camp more than the possibility of doing so. 2 hours ago, Frustration said: How much Voidlight did they mix it with? And even if Gavilar's sphere was a broam that's 2^3 millimeters. Given standard density of air that's only about .0001225 g. Even assuming 100% reaction that's about 2 tons of TNT. That's a bit more than a room but with sturdy stone walls it likely wouldn't spread much beyond a single room. Right, but that means they'd need more than 'two fist-size gemstones'. They'd need two extremely large gemstones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Nameless said: He said that Wayne would hold the ship in place while they figured out some other way to defuse the bombs. Can't do that with one big duraluminum push, it would just stop then start again. How would he do that without killing himself? In order to hold it in place he would need an immovable anchor, which means that the entire force of the ship is focused on him. There's no way he survives that. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Travelling between planets in a solar system is very different than travelling between solar systems. Saying that because you can do one you can do the other is like saying because we can shoot a rocket to mars we can shoot a rocket to Alpha Centauri. If you can shoot a rocket to Mars you can shoot one to Alpha Centauri. It would just take more time. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: And? we don't know the mechanics of Spiritual realm travel. It is possible to travel between systems with it, but for all we know Elsecaller/Bondsmith combos might not be able to do it, or it might need Shardic aid. 1. It's similar to Oathgates so it's instantaneous, and distance is irrelevant because there is no place in the SR. 2. Why would it need Shardaic aid? Bondsmiths can interact with all orders and surges(RoW 237). 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Mists are different from stormlight. Their techniques won't work the same way. Not that different. Gaseous Investiture that responds to Tones, can be used as fuel, and comes from a source that can't enter buildings. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: They have unkeyed investiture and Mraize has at least one aether. He hasn't bonded it through. And have you read the SA 5 sample chapters? 1 hour ago, Nameless said:  to sabotage supply lines. Which will reveal them. 1 hour ago, Nameless said: Right, but that means they'd need more than 'two fist-size gemstones'. They'd need two extremely large gemstones. Um, no. Even if they were 2cm^3(roughly the size of a 2x2 Lego brick) they would be a 1,000 times more powerful, easily able to take out entire streets. Edited November 20, 2022 by Frustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Could Be Fire Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 On 11/15/2022 at 4:55 PM, snowbreaker said: They could be but seems a bit more significant to me. First, they are Ghostblood agents. Then, the dialogue around legality - "You are certain this is legal? The mass sinking of private ships?" Steris dismisses them because, well, why wouldn't she. But we know better. Skybreaker-ghostblood cooperation is also really interesting in the context of the the sixth of dusk sequel fragment that we have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therunner Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: Jasnah could only go from the cognitive to the physical realm because she was near a perpendicularity. And she has made progress since then, e.g. got Plate, and 8-9 years to train with her powers. It is a question of acquired skill and training, not physical possibility. 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: We don't know how bullets work with Shardplate, but hammers do pretty well against dead plate, so I can only assume that a hail of bullets would break, then shatter, deadplate., before they have a chance to get close. Anyone without any plate would be gone in seconds. Only two Radiants even HAVE living plate right now, so we know next to nothing about its capabilities. So we can't factor that in. I suppose you could give dead plate to the radiants who don't have their own, and their stormlight would keep it going, but that would drain their Stormlight FAST. Per WoB 2-3 bullets per section, against deadplate. Living plate is at least as good as that, possibly better. Though what we had now seen of Aether makes me question whether Brandon changed his mind on that, Shardplates are 'powered armor' of Cosmere and will remain relevant to Era 4, so they should be harder to break (or something will change about them). Deadplate on Radiant would hinder them, it would interfere with their Surges, so not an option 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: Shard blades are great, but they'd need to get in close to use them. But the ENTIRE army would be shooting with bullets. So they'd have to come in under a storm of bullets and grenades. Jasnah, with LIVING plate, could barely hold her own against a bunch of people with spears and ropes. Radiants have Surges that can be used at range. Why move in close when you can soulcast an enemy? Also you can soulcast cover. For Windrunner, they can just lash objects against enemy for kinetic bombardment that is beyond reach of Scadrial yet + some can support by using reverse lashings to make bullets go off mark. And Jasnah was at that point completely untrained for melee combat and was pretending to be a regular Shardbearer. Second she started using Surges and stopped holding back she dominated. 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: Rosharans have the Fourth Bridge, Scadrians have flying ships with guns and cannons. The Fourth Bridge wouldn't last a single engagement. Floating platforms would go down just as fast. Just takes a single explosion. Scadrians ships are wooden, light (due to Iron feruchemy) and don't have any guns or cannons (and if they did, the recoil would make them horribly inaccurate), could be used as bombers though. Rosharans had 4th Bridge 7-8 years ago, and got it within a year of developing proof of concept floating platforms. Also Roshar has Windrunners, you know people moving the at hundreds of km/h with better maneuverability? 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: The Rosharan army is pointless. The entire army uses spears and bows. They'd be mowed down instantly. Which means their only saving grace is their Knights, none of which have armor right now. They'd go down so quick, it wouldn't even be funny. Skybreakers and Windrunners don't mean anything when your rifle can shoot hundreds of yards. Being able to heal means nothing when you're hit over and over by dozens of bullets. Elsecallers can't elsecall from the cognative to the physical without a perpendicularity.  Gravitation and Adhesion don't mean anything here, except to simulate catapults.  Regrowth would keep Edgedancers and Truthwatchers alive for a while, but once their stormlight ran out, that would be it. Lightweaving would be useful, cause they could make illusions, but the bullets are EVERYWHERE.  Soulcasting would theoretically help if they knew what they were going up against, making everything out of aluminum. But if they know what they're up against, the Scadrians do too, and they have Aluminum as well. Bows can still kill people, and why would Rosharans just stand around and get mowed down? In a single battle sure, before they know what is going on, but afterwards? For every soldier Scadrial has, they have 10. Most Radiants could easily shrug off bullets, they heal on par with Gold compounders, sure it would eat through their Stormlight, but regrowing severed limbs or spines they do in middle of battle without much worry. Elsecalling can be done without perpendicularity, Gravitation simulating bombardment is very useful (good luck fielding artillery when large boulders keep dropping on your location). Regrowth can keep regular soldiers alive and ready for next round. Lightweaving, how can you hit target you don't see? Or even better, why are you shooting at illusions? Soulcasting is in its own league, you can do it from Cognitive and Scadrial has no defense against it. Soulcast air in the barrel to rock, and gun is broken even if made out of aluminum. Soulcast rocket fuel to water, rockets are pointless. And Lightweavers can do it too. 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: Unless the Rosharan Knights all manage to get ahold of Living Plate, as their forces stand RIGHT NOW, Scadrial wipes the floor with them. There would be no other answer. With Firearms and modern explosives, they almost don't even need metalborn. But they ALSO have metalborn. People who can move so fast you can't see them, who can take the Rosharan weapons and armor and use it against them, who can demoralize the entire army. Except metalborn are rare, one in a couple of thousand (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/7/#e6856), and some powers rarer still (ferrings are rarer then mistings). There is at most ~10000 metalborn alive in the entire Elendel Basin, across the entire age pyramid, so only about ~1/2 is of combat age, if we are being generous. So you have 5000 metalborn, most having only 1 power (any Twinborn is pretty much one in a million occurrence, we met exactly 3 across entire Era 2), and about 1/3 of single powers are not directly combat useful, leaving us with about ~3500 metalborn, most of whom are not combat trained, unlike Radiants who are mostly combat trained. If powers were being exactly 1/16 chance, then that would leave us with about ~100 F-steel ferrings, which would be impressive, but based on SoS there cannot be that many in Elendel (Wax gets a relatively short list of all Steelrunners in Elendel + both he and Bleeder immediately went after the same one), so their actual number is probably in the low tens at most (across entire population pyramid). Still impressive, however Adhesion renders them effectively impotent and they have no healing. Plus when one dies, that is it, that power is lost permanently. When Radiant dies, spren can bond someone else, and new Radiant is available. 12 hours ago, Tglassy said: Wait until it's discovered that they can create Lerasium again. The rosharans are learning new cool things they can do with fabrials and their anti light bombs, which don't even compare to the destructive power of the new bombs the Scadrians now have. But once the ENTIRE population of Scadrial is Mistborn, that's it. Game's over. One single five foot tall Mistborn took on an entire army of Koloss. What would she do to a batallion of Rosharan soldiers?  Wax knows it was created but not how, Sazed might know how but is not sharing. And even then, the process requires Trellium, and there are no more sources of that, so you could not turn entire population of Scadrial, most likely not even a single city. A Mistborn in a battle would fall to a Windrunner, of 3rd Oath (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/4/#e1432). 12 hours ago, Nameless said: They worked, just not well enough. They did tests that had a 40 mile max range. Re-read that part, true enough, based on notes Wax has. But then I am confused about what Telsin says about rocketry and advanced ballistic being beyond them. And why did they not use the rockets they have, instead of suicide ship? Even if they had to fire 3 rockets, it would be good enough result, and no need for suicidal sailors. So I concede they have rockets with this range, but they are apparently not good enough to deliver their harmonium-trellium explosives. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: We saw that a blast of less than a tenth of 3 ounces of Harmonium destroyed Wax's blast box. And while Harmony might be speculating, he is far beyond any mortal scientist in terms of cognitive ability, so I think it is safe to take him at his word as to the destruction levels of the bomb I agree that he is beyond mortal scientist, but immediately after that he tells a completely false fear, which undermines his previous statements. And once again, he literally tells us he has no idea what is going to happen and how big the explosion will be, he is afraid and guessing. So I would not take someone who tells us they don't know at their word, since they told us not to do that. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Not a nuclear bomb, an antimatter bomb. A cold war doesn't necessitate constant upscaling of nukes, just that both sides have the firepower to obliterate each other completely, meaning outright war is suicide no matter who 'wins'. Nope it is a nuclear bomb. It is powered by energy-matter transference, as a result of trying to separate one element (harmonium) into different ones (atium and lerasium), that is literally what nuclear bombs are. There is no antimatter anywhere in the process. Antimatter bombs could be created only on Rosharan at the moment, as only they have knowledge of anti-Investiture (though only with gaseous investiture at RoW). Cold war was partially characterized by an arms race, of which nukes were a large part of, as their development lead to that stalemate. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: This is a different Odium, and he is still locked to Roshar. And I am more interested in the discussion with neither side being united. It is possible that a few more Elsecallers will be around, but I think the revelation that the Radiants and their spren decided together that it was too dangerous for them to remain bonded will keep many spren, particularly the very logic-minded Inkspren, from seeking out bonds. Fair enough, though T-Odium is confident in loop-holing his way through Contest, which would leave him free to act outside of Roshar. But we don't know why they decided it was dangerous, it is possible the danger has passed, is mitigated by something else, or there is a greater danger that the one that lead to that choice. But clearly some Inkspren even now choose to bond, so a couple of more would not be out of line. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Wayne was boosted, as Harmony suggested that he could keep the entire ship from moving forwards just by using A-steel. No unboosted Mistborn could pull that off. Wayne has also spike granting Steel, and has Duralumin and bunch of vials with all metals. And while Sazed suggests he could push against upcoming source of metal to try and make the ship thread water, he also tells him it is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Plus he would need anchor, and a way to not be crushed, which necessitates Duralumin either way. And strength of Lerasium mistborn is dependent on amount of Lerasium, and Wayne had very little (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/6/#e341). 12 hours ago, Nameless said: The distance might be too great for the Elsecaller to transport, and there aren't any Oathgate spren. They might have been made with Honor's aid for all we know. I was thinking more using boosted Elsecaller to move thousand of people to and from Shadesmar, not directly teleporting them to Scadrial, I agree that that would require insane amounts of Investiture (or some smart hack, maybe a Connection hack, as is hinted at in SP4?). Either way, not yet possible. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: They did, but Sazed is lying to Kelsier so that he'll be unable to produce Lerasium. He said all the Lerasium was destroyed, which was a lie as Wax produced it. And before you say that Wax's explosion was different, it was. All previous explosion didn't make any godmetals, likely because there was no Intent to do so. Just as those explosions produced no godmetals, if you believe that the explosion won't produce Lerasium, it won't. Since Harmony didn't want Kelsier to make Lerasium, he told him it was impossible. Proof? Sazed once says he does not know how it happened, and later says they were unable to replicate it. He had no reason to lie to Wayne, so I don't think he lied about that. He did lie about no Lerasium being found in Wax's explosion, and there were two of those and neither we, nor Wax know which actually produced Lerasium. And while Intent is important, it is not that overpowering you still need proper procedure, else Marsh would have been able to create Atium for a while. It is entierly possible Kandra have Intent, but are missing something about the procedure. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Fair, but they'd still have to get Preservation's tone somehow. Harmonies, and Singer could do that relatively easily, or someone with good connection to Roshar. I wonder if you could reverse engineers Tones of other Shards from their Intents and knowledge of some of the Tones, if there is some relation.  12 hours ago, Nameless said: Since when has Shallan known any Ghostblood operatives besides Mraize, Iyatil, and the ones at that meeting? As for their presence on Roshar, they killed two Highprinces and basically rule the underworld, so they obviously have a reasonable amount of agents. Enough to do recon, sabotage, and assassination at least. So, she just knows their entire leadership? Based on TLM Iyatil is the head of Rosharan branch, and Mraize her second in command. 11 hours ago, Nameless said: The Malwish very well might help them once an actual invasion took place, rather than a simple bomb threat. And assuming Roshar wants to conquer the entire planet, they'd have to go for South Scadrial eventually. Divide and conquer, promise Malwish revenge on Northerns for the BoM incident and full control of Scadrial, and afterwards turn on them. 11 hours ago, Nameless said: Ghostblood operatives are extremely talented, and we've seen that they have access to some extremely powerful Investitures. We have seen what Kelsier called his most talented members in TLM, not their average. And while they have unkeyed Dor, it is an emergency measure (see how shocked everyone was) and obtaining it is pretty difficult. (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15205) 11 hours ago, Nameless said: That doesn't really line up with the books. Gavilar's gemstone was perfect and filled with anti-light, but the explosion it generated only destroyed one room. fist-sized gemstones aren't going to be destroying a city. Even a gemheart wouldn't get close. Could have been incomplete reaction + we don't know energy density of gaseous vs solid investiture. Frankly I am not willing to make estimates on what would be minimum to destroy city, and Roshar has better option for that, like Cohesion powered by Unchained Bondsmith. 10 hours ago, Frustration said: How much Voidlight did they mix it with? And even if Gavilar's sphere was a broam that's 2^3 millimeters. Given standard density of air that's only about .0001225 g. Even assuming 100% reaction that's about 2 tons of TNT. That's a bit more than a room but with sturdy stone walls it likely wouldn't spread much beyond a single room. Small correction, broams are actually 8mm in diameter, so the size and mass is about 2^3 larger, i.e. 8x, so it is only about ~250kg of TNT. Still good though, and I would some closer in scale to outcome. 8 hours ago, Nameless said: He said that Wayne would hold the ship in place while they figured out some other way to defuse the bombs. Can't do that with one big duraluminum push, it would just stop then start again. He said Wayne could try, and would most likely fail. We don't know anymore than that. 8 hours ago, Nameless said: Mists are different from stormlight. Their techniques won't work the same way. Mists are effectively the same, they can be sucked in as Stormlight (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/467/#e14782) they can be captured in spheres (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/385/#e12607 , https://wob.coppermind.net/events/467/#e14784 ) they are described as in the same vein as Lifelight (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/377/#e12207) they cannot enter buildings and they power Invested arts (see Vin at the end of TFA) Mists behave pretty much exactly the same as any gaseous Investiture on Roshar does. So it stands to reason manipulation techniques should be applicable as well. Though the fact that Harmony is one shard, and Honor and Cultivation are not, would probably make splitting of Harmony mist much more difficult. 8 hours ago, Nameless said: They have unkeyed investiture and Mraize has at least one aether. Besides that, they don't need to kill Shallan to sabotage supply lines. As for their competence, they killed two Highprinces and dismantled the Sons of Honor led by Ialai in just one year. Iyatil was impressed by the way Shallan managed to get into Dalinar's camp more than the possibility of doing so. They have unkeyed Investiture on Scadrial, and comment that traveling to Roshar is dangerous. Mraize has unbonded Aether, and we don't know if he (or anyone) could bond it. For all we know it is just inert piece of roseaite. And Ghostblood operations against Sons of Honor were done with assistance of Shallan, who was actually quite important in that. 8 hours ago, Nameless said: Right, but that means they'd need more than 'two fist-size gemstones'. They'd need two extremely large gemstones. Fist sized gemstone would be 8 cm in diameter, so about 1000 times larger per volume, two of them would be 2000 times. Full conversion, that is now 500 tons of TNT. That is about Tomahawk missile. Edited November 20, 2022 by therunner spelling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lacrossedeamon Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 No one has pulled out Roshar's big guns yet: two windrunners (or skybreakers) with a large spool of shardwire pulled taut between them moving as fast as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScadrianTank Posted November 20, 2022 Report Share Posted November 20, 2022 18 hours ago, Tglassy said: It's devolving in to "But my attack dog has a forcefield," "But my dinosaur eats forcefield dogs!" If you haven't seen this same discussion in the old topic, don't look at it now, but it's pretty mild in comparison, honestly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NameIess Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: How would he do that without killing himself? In order to hold it in place he would need an immovable anchor, which means that the entire force of the ship is focused on him. There's no way he survives that. Harmony suggested Wayne could do it, and although he did give the plan as a whole a 1/100 chance of working, that probably has more to do with Wayne's lack of skill with steel and the difficulty of finding another way to defuse the bombs. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: If you can shoot a rocket to Mars you can shoot one to Alpha Centauri. It would just take more time. And a lot more math. And you couldn't get humans there safely. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: 1. It's similar to Oathgates so it's instantaneous, and distance is irrelevant because there is no place in the SR. 2. Why would it need Shardaic aid? Bondsmiths can interact with all orders and surges(RoW 237). 1. Again, we don't know the mechanics of Spiritual realm travel. Is distance irrelevant? Connection is through the SR, but physical location still matters to it. 2. You might need a supernatural knowledge of your end location. It might not be possible to travel to Shardworlds unless the Shard allows it. The point is we know almost nothing about the initial event, so we can't really accurately speculate as to how it could be used. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: Not that different. Gaseous Investiture that responds to Tones, can be used as fuel, and comes from a source that can't enter buildings. Fair. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: He hasn't bonded it through. And have you read the SA 5 sample chapters? I have. However, they don't need to kill Shallan to keep her from eradicating their organization, and she can't always stay in Urithiru. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: Which will reveal them. Roshar already knows the Ghostbloods exist. That doesn't mean they can stop them. Jasnah hasn't managed it, and she's the queen of Alethkar now. On 11/19/2022 at 10:00 PM, Frustration said: Um, no. Even if they were 2cm^3(roughly the size of a 2x2 Lego brick) they would be a 1,000 times more powerful, easily able to take out entire streets. Is Gavilar's sphere a broam? The first description we get of it in tWoK is 'A small crystalline sphere tied to a chain'. Crystalline means it isn't in glass, and an 8 mm sphere would be described as tiny, not small. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: And why did they not use the rockets they have, instead of suicide ship? Even if they had to fire 3 rockets, it would be good enough result, and no need for suicidal sailors. So I concede they have rockets with this range, but they are apparently not good enough to deliver their harmonium-trellium explosives. I think the payload they were using was just too heavy, since they went overboard with it. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: I agree that he is beyond mortal scientist, but immediately after that he tells a completely false fear, which undermines his previous statements. And once again, he literally tells us he has no idea what is going to happen and how big the explosion will be, he is afraid and guessing. So I would not take someone who tells us they don't know at their word, since they told us not to do that. He had no idea, but he guessed that it would be really big, and given the size of the explosion when it was just Harmonium, when we know that a blast made by less than a tenth the amount of harmonium did vastly more damage than a blast of ten times the amount of Harmonium, it's safe to say that it would have been huge, and we shouldn't throw out Harmony's estimate, even if it was just a guess. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Proof? Sazed once says he does not know how it happened, and later says they were unable to replicate it. He had no reason to lie to Wayne, so I don't think he lied about that. Sazed says that he doesn't know how Wax's explosion happened, then doesn't tell Kelsier about the explosions being able to produce Lerasium, and implies that doing so is not possible. Since we know it is possible, I think it's reasonable to assume that Harmony was lying to Kelsier. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: He did lie about no Lerasium being found in Wax's explosion, and there were two of those and neither we, nor Wax know which actually produced Lerasium. And while Intent is important, it is not that overpowering you still need proper procedure, else Marsh would have been able to create Atium for a while. It is entierly possible Kandra have Intent, but are missing something about the procedure. Marsh didn't ever make a Harmonium-Trellium explosion, he just heard about it and came to see if other people's attempts (without the proper intent) did so. It is entirely possible that the Kandra are making Lerasium but Harmony's just lying through his teeth about it. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Nope it is a nuclear bomb. It is powered by energy-matter transference, as a result of trying to separate one element (harmonium) into different ones (atium and lerasium), that is literally what nuclear bombs are. There is no antimatter anywhere in the process. Antimatter bombs could be created only on Rosharan at the moment, as only they have knowledge of anti-Investiture (though only with gaseous investiture at RoW). They are more destructive and vastly easier to create than nuclear bombs, even if Harmony's guess was way off. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Cold war was partially characterized by an arms race, of which nukes were a large part of, as their development lead to that stalemate. And yet it went on even after both sides had nukes that could effectively end all of human civilization. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Wayne has also spike granting Steel, and has Duralumin and bunch of vials with all metals. And while Sazed suggests he could push against upcoming source of metal to try and make the ship thread water, he also tells him it is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Plus he would need anchor, and a way to not be crushed, which necessitates Duralumin either way. And strength of Lerasium mistborn is dependent on amount of Lerasium, and Wayne had very little (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/6/#e341). Duraluminum wouldn't have worked. He needed to hold the boat in place for an extended period of time. Since Harmony suggested the idea, it must have been possible without Duraluminum. I hadn't thought about the spike granting steel though. Still, even a double strength steel misting wouldn't have been able to hold an entire boat at bay. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Harmonies, and Singer could do that relatively easily, or someone with good connection to Roshar. I wonder if you could reverse engineers Tones of other Shards from their Intents and knowledge of some of the Tones, if there is some relation. That's true. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: So, she just knows their entire leadership? Based on TLM Iyatil is the head of Rosharan branch, and Mraize her second in command. Their leadership aren't the ones going around sabotaging stuff most of the time. That's hired thugs, or people like Tyn who aren't full agents yet. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Divide and conquer, promise Malwish revenge on Northerns for the BoM incident and full control of Scadrial, and afterwards turn on them. That's possible, but it's equally possible that the Scadrians could ally with whichever side didn't attack them to destroy the attacking side's forces. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: We have seen what Kelsier called his most talented members in TLM, not their average. And while they have unkeyed Dor, it is an emergency measure (see how shocked everyone was) and obtaining it is pretty difficult. (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/479/#e15205) That's true, but the Ghostbloods on Roshar probably have at least similarly talented operatives. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: Could have been incomplete reaction + we don't know energy density of gaseous vs solid investiture. Frankly I am not willing to make estimates on what would be minimum to destroy city, and Roshar has better option for that, like Cohesion powered by Unchained Bondsmith. That's true, but risking a Bondsmith is risky. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: He said Wayne could try, and would most likely fail. We don't know anymore than that. But it was also a possibility. If Wayne had to use Duraluminum, he would have lower than a 1% chance of success, considering all the other factors. On 11/20/2022 at 5:44 AM, therunner said: They have unkeyed Investiture on Scadrial, and comment that traveling to Roshar is dangerous. Mraize has unbonded Aether, and we don't know if he (or anyone) could bond it. For all we know it is just inert piece of roseaite. And Ghostblood operations against Sons of Honor were done with assistance of Shallan, who was actually quite important in that. Unless I'm forgetting something, Shallan only killed Ialai. The Ghostbloods did the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Harmony suggested Wayne could do it, and although he did give the plan as a whole a 1/100 chance of working, that probably has more to do with Wayne's lack of skill with steel and the difficulty of finding another way to defuse the bombs. I find it more likely that he would use steel against something inside the ship, such as holding one of the pistons in the engine shut. That wouldn't crush him between those forces. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: 1. Again, we don't know the mechanics of Spiritual realm travel. Is distance irrelevant? Yes we do, use the SR to bypass space, as the SR is all places in one. Hence there is no distance between places, as can be seen by Oathgates being FTL. So where you are going doesn't matter. Aon Tia can get you anywhere, Oathgates can get you anywhere, Bondsmith/Elsecaller portals can get you anywhere. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Connection is through the SR, but physical location still matters to it. Place only matters to Connection so far as "You are Connected to this place" It's not like being in Alethkar will make it harder to form friendships than if you were in Teod. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: 2. You might need a supernatural knowledge of your end location. Knowledge maybe, but Aon Tia doesn't require supernatural levels, neither did the Aether of Night or Illuminise. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: It might not be possible to travel to Shardworlds unless the Shard allows it. What gives you that idea? 12 hours ago, Nameless said: I have. However, they don't need to kill Shallan to keep her from eradicating their organization, and she can't always stay in Urithiru. No, but she can always sleep there, and wear her plate anywhere else. While in Urithiru The Sibling can see anything the ghostbloods try to do, it would be impossible to reliably sabotage supplies from there, and since it is the central hub of Oathgates that is the most logical location to organize supplies from. Additionally with the amount of Soulcasters there they might not even need to go anywhere else to collect anything. So Sabotage is nearly impossible, if not outright. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Roshar already knows the Ghostbloods exist. That doesn't mean they can stop them. Jasnah hasn't managed it, and she's the queen of Alethkar now.  How much effort has she really put into it? She's been dealing with the end of the world for the past year. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Is Gavilar's sphere a broam? The first description we get of it in tWoK is 'A small crystalline sphere tied to a chain'. Crystalline means it isn't in glass, and an 8 mm sphere would be described as tiny, not small. Even if it isn't, the voidlight one they mixed it with probably was, and since it had been months since they captured their most recent ones it was probably only about half full. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: He had no idea, but he guessed that it would be really big, and given the size of the explosion when it was just Harmonium, when we know that a blast made by less than a tenth the amount of harmonium did vastly more damage than a blast of ten times the amount of Harmonium, it's safe to say that it would have been huge, and we shouldn't throw out Harmony's estimate, even if it was just a guess. A guess while he was blinded by Autonomy. Nuclear level, sure. I'd even be willing to go slightly above. I just ran a simulation(Assuming that those barrels were completely full, which they couldn't be due to still needing the arms to pull them apart and room to the trellium. And the weight would be too much for Wayne to lift. And that Harmonium was twice as powerful as Cesium, which I don't think it's that level. So the actual yield would be maybe a third of that.) And got a yield of 4 MT. Even if the Trellium made it ten times more powerful it won't be enough to match the Tsar bomba(the one that the USSR tested) which was 50 MT. Much less the most powerful one ever made at 100 MT. Taking the more accurate yield of 1.3 MT the trellium blast would be closer to 13 MT, which is large modern nuclear weapons. Of course you and @therunner can double check my numbers, but Harmonium/Trellium would simply be more powerful nukes. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: Sazed says that he doesn't know how Wax's explosion happened, then doesn't tell Kelsier about the explosions being able to produce Lerasium, and implies that doing so is not possible. Since we know it is possible, I think it's reasonable to assume that Harmony was lying to Kelsier. So hold up. We know that Bodsmiths/Elsecallers can make interplanetary portals, and you say that we know too little and shouldn't account for them. But Harmony says he doesn't know what Wax did to make lerasium, and then hints that the Kandra can't replicate it, and you say that not only is he lying but that Scadrians will really quickly figure out how to get Lerasium from it. 12 hours ago, Nameless said: That's true, but the Ghostbloods on Roshar probably have at least similarly talented operatives. Why invest so much talent and resources on Roshar, which is noted as being inaccessible to them without extreme danger? 12 hours ago, Nameless said: That's true, but risking a Bondsmith is risky. Send squires with boosted Connection allowing them to retain powers at greater distances. Edited November 22, 2022 by Frustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Coinshot Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) On 11/19/2022 at 0:43 PM, therunner said: Scadrial has weaker airforce (wooden slow flying ships vs Windrunners), no rockets (see above). And TLM is set at minimum 7-8 years after SA5, (https://wob.coppermind.net/events/508/#e15877), at most 10. Roshar has soulcasting, which puts vast majority of industry to shame. First Point: Yes, you're right, but you're ignoring the fact that in Alloy, Harmony mentioned that the Basin should have heavier-than-air flight at that point, and our own history has proven that war tends to do funny things to people's scientific motivation towards weapons. Also, the destructive capability of Scadrial against cities and large armies (both important fixtures of Roshar) is far greater than vice versa. My theory (and correct this if you disagree) is that even though Rosharan troops will win against Scadrian troops in a pitched battle, Scadrial can use its undeniably superior navy and production capabilities of airships, harmonium bombs, and more warships to simply blast Rosharan cities into submission. In a large scale war, protecting your cities is more vital than winning field battles, especially when their strategy is "draw Radiants to the field, use the Bands/Twinborn/Allomancers/Ferrings/Kandra to occupy them, and then shell/bomb encampments and cities with duraluminum Coinshots or whatever to protect airships. Yeah, I was off on the timeline. Sorry about that. But you have to admit that Scadrial's technological advancement is much faster than Rosahr's, and they're much further ahead at a similar time period. Soulcasting isn't that impressive. Here, let me explain. I ran some quick searches and numbers, and Elendel is about the same size if not larger than early 1900s London, (both are around 5 million) which I figured was a good starting point as they're both central cities in large empires that are entering or in the Second Industrial Revolution. (This, of course, doesn't account for the larger world in which unless the Southern Scadrians have massive cities, our earth far outstrips Scadrial in population.) Soulcasting is a crutch for Rosharan cities, allowing them to produce far more food than they should be able to, but it can be disrupted (albeit with a fair amount of difficulty) and despite it the Rosharans don't have a single city close to Elendel, New Seran, or Bilming's size. This leads me to believe that Soulcasting's limits prevent it from approaching the level of industry the Scadrians have. Another thing that's pretty experimental/theoretical is that Scadrial should have some key technologies at this point. Maybe heavier-than-air is a bit of a stretch at this point, but looking at our own history radio and lighter-than-air are significantly enough to, sequentially, coordinate large navies and armies (both of which Scadrial can quickly raise) and the other has massive destructive capabilities against cities (especially with Harmonium bombs.) I think your point about the air force is kinda valid. Windrunners are valuable, but they can be blindsided and are at a range disadvantage against protecting lurchers/coinshots, especially ones with duraluminum. I also think that Kandra meatbags in all aspects of the war will negate or at least weaken Radiant advantages. On this, however, I'm very curious in hearing (well, reading) everyone's thoughts. And the last point, one that might not really be valid, is that Scadrial will have an easier time finding allies in the event of an unusually long war. Cultivation focuses on Roshar, Odium is Cosmere-wide hated, and, as Dalinar and Kaladin are so fond of saying, Honor is dead. Meanwhile, Harmony has tried multiple times to establish contact throughout the Cosmere. Does this count? Yes? No? Kinda? It does, but it's irrelevant? Anyway, all of these are really interesting arguments from y'all.  Wait, one thing I missed, trying to calculate the output of Harmonium is going to be tough because we don't have an accurate control or a varied data set. We have the understanding that blowing up Harmonium is bad, and a battleship worth will destroy Elendel, but (to my memory) the only actual detonation we see is in a subdued environment (a steel+concrete safe box) that causes a fairly large explosion from an unknown (at least exactly) quantity of two metals we have no knowledge of except their the bodies of gods that don't exist in our world, and the explosion itself is a result of a force that doesn't even exist in our universe. Last thing: gravity on Scadrial is different, and the atmosphere/chemical makeup of Scadrial is different. Although you might get some guesses that might be close, the fact that the energy being released by the explosion, the lack of a data set or exact control group and the fact that the surroundings/impacted area might have basic, key differences from Earth means that it's going to be tough to get even a rough estimate of explosive power. Last thing, I promise. Harmonium I compare to nukes not because of their destructive power but because of how the power is released. Nukes split the atom, releasing a massive amount of energy. It's not *technically* about the size of the bomb, it's the size of the reaction. That's slightly different with Harmonium. Harmonium uses a separation agent, like an anti catalyst (Trellium) in order to...you know what, new sentence. Ignoring Shard's intent and *again, technically* ignoring Investiture, Harmonium will split because Trellium acts as an ignition for a process started when running an electrical current through Harmonium in order to superheat it or get a current going or whatever it is. Trellium's anti-Harmonium nature means that it will naturally try to split from Harmonium, Harmonium is weakened, it splits, and like when atoms split, it releases a large amount of energy. The fact that Brandon, for once, had Wax and company foresee the explosion means that it's deadly. Bad enough, probably, that Wayne putting up a speed bubble and then tapping Gold wouldn't be enough or would be very difficult to pull off. This, of course, is pure speculation. But I think that this is important, because while not having the radioactive property of a nuke or its simpler "detonate, chain reaction, explosion" the Harmonium has stronger explosive capability. The reason why this is relevant is partially because of how Harmony referred to it. An "investiture-energy-matter transfer" or whatever. If you look at basic...physics? Whatever field it is, you see that matter and energy are essentially the same. The ability to interchange these is incredibly powerful. It's, in fact, the basis of life on Earth and throughout the known Cosmere. When you add Investiture to this, you get something that starts closer to fission and ends closer to fusion. TL,DR or "I can't understand this lunatic's ravings": Harmonium has higher explosive capabilities than nukes but less "let's raise cancer rates than everyone" but potentially can highly invest in an area and potentially rip the Spiritual fabric of an area apart. d P.S. I wonder what would happen if you detonated one at a Perpendicularity... P.P.S I'm sorry if some of my connections in that last paragraph are a little hard to follow, I tend to rave a bit and have some trouble expressing how I think things link. Please let me know if something doesn't make sense. I lied to you all there's one last thing I want to mention. I can cite specific examples if you want them, but quality of troops and battlefield decisions do not necessarily determine wars, especially more modern ones. It's how effective logistics of all kinds and information gathering are, and Scadrial has the edge in both. (Organized government, better abilities at stealth (you know, they're guys don't start glowing when they magic), and arguably most important, radio.) (Also, a big one:troop transportation. Airships like the warship and battleships as well as railways can move larger quantities of troops longer distances faster than the Rosharans can, although the Rosharans will likely win in speed if they have powerful Elsecallers.) So while Radiants and the Rosharan martial tradition will certainly have a large effect, there are other large factors at play in which Scadrial has the advantage.  Edited November 24, 2022 by Flaming Coinshot Added the last point, talked about Harmonium bombs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frustration Posted November 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: First Point: Yes, you're right, but you're ignoring the fact that in Alloy, Harmony mentioned that the Basin should have heavier-than-air flight at that point, and our own history has proven that war tends to do funny things to people's scientific motivation towards weapons. While that is true there is a lot more to powered flight than simply wanting it. Even if Scadrial day one of conflict managed to build a Wright Brothers style plane they would be years away from combat or transport ready craft. All it really would be useful for is scouting, and it would easily be taken out by the far faster and more maneuverable Radiants. Even if they had WW1 planes I doubt they could break Rosharan air superiority. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Also, the destructive capability of Scadrial against cities and large armies (both important fixtures of Roshar) is far greater than vice versa. So that's not entirely true as anti-lights are far more destructive than Harmonium/Trellium. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Scadrial can use its undeniably superior navy Now this is a fair point. Scadrian ships are better than their Rosharan counterparts. Now there are some ways Roshar can take out ocean-going vessels, but their own ships will never be able to challenge Scadrian ones in open combat. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: In a large scale war, protecting your cities is more vital than winning field battles, That is true, but without a way to make perpendicularities Scadrial is going to struggle getting to those cities. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Yeah, I was off on the timeline. Sorry about that. But you have to admit that Scadrial's technological advancement is much faster than Rosahr's, and they're much further ahead at a similar time period. Not really. In the past 6 years on each world, not counting the stuff they were given Scadrial has made large anti-aircraft guns. Roshar made airships, water attractors, painrails, vaccines, heating fabrials, smoke collectors, fabrial pumps, alerters etc. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Soulcasting isn't that impressive. Here, let me explain. I ran some quick searches and numbers, and Elendel is about the same size if not larger than early 1900s London, (both are around 5 million) which I figured was a good starting point as they're both central cities in large empires that are entering or in the Second Industrial Revolution. (This, of course, doesn't account for the larger world in which unless the Southern Scadrians have massive cities, our earth far outstrips Scadrial in population.) Soulcasting is a crutch for Rosharan cities, allowing them to produce far more food than they should be able to, but it can be disrupted (albeit with a fair amount of difficulty) and despite it the Rosharans don't have a single city close to Elendel, New Seran, or Bilming's size. This leads me to believe that Soulcasting's limits prevent it from approaching the level of industry the Scadrians have. Well two points One is that while some cities do depend on soulcasters, for some of their food they are far from the point that without them they would starve. Spoiler ebilutionist How would food production be like without soulcasters? Has Alethkar, for example, grown far beyond what it could (population-wise) without them? Brandon Sanderson The food question is a great one. As far as the Alethi go, it's more a matter of concentration than raw food production. Shipping is SLOW in Alethkar. It's long, which makes getting between north and south difficult, and the rivers aren't as useful as they are on (say) Earth. The warcamps, for example, would starve themselves out short order without soulcasters. Supply lines are just not an Alethi strength. Kholinar, while not as big as Scadrian population centers, is also large enough that it depends on soulcasters for some of its food. It could survive without them, though, with northern Alethi food production. Really, warfare is where they've learned to extend themselves, and depend on the soulcasters. Remember, gemstones in them DO break, so you do still need a ready supply of emeralds. The larger, the better. ebilutionist Very interesting on the food logistics of Alethkar - I never did quite imagine Kholinar was smaller than say, Elendel, but the technological progress there explains it. Given how slow food transportation is, I would presume fresh food is a no-go. Are spices and preserved food selling well in Roshar, then? As for population centers, is Kholinar the largest around, or are other places a lot larger? Brandon Sanderson There's a reason that Herdazian food (which makes soulcast meat taste good) is popular these days. Azimir is larger in population than Kholinar. Kholinar is big by Rosharan standards, but far smaller than an Earth population center (like London) at a comparable time. The warcamps had it beat by a lot--depending on how you view the warcamps. (As one city, or ten small ones.) ebilutionist Does that just mean Herdazian food is incredibly spice-heavy, then? Also, why is Soulcast food bland? Is it due to the nature of the object (changing food to food makes it tastier than stone to food), or just because the Soulcaster lacks practice, like Jasnah did with strawberry jam? Brandon Sanderson Flavorful, rather than spicy. Most western food is already spicy. The Herdazians offer something a little different, and are pretty good with soulcast meat. The portability is also a bit of a revolution. Soulcasting anything other than the basic Essence requires some innate knowledge and practice. People could learn to soulcast better food, but it would have to be a Radiant with control over the process. The soulcaster fabrials are far more rigid in what they can create. ebilutionist As for soulcasting - now that is... interesting. So are Surgebinding fabrials more rigid in general? And what of an Honorblade when a non-Herald uses it? Brandon Sanderson A soulcaster is built to do a certain thing, and can do that certain thing well, but without as much flexibility. It is the difference between having a computer output a picture of a circle--following some inputs such as size and some changes to shape--and having an artist who can draw what you want. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/181/#e3824         Second is that radiant soulcasters are not bound the same way traditional ones are, so they can make more materials, and any material they desire. If scadrian forces run low on food or aluminum they have to spend the time to grow food, or to mine and process the boxite, and then they have to transport it to their army. Rosharans simply have a Lightweaver or Elsecaller spend an hour or so making it and they're good for the next month. 2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Rosharans don't have a single city close to Elendel, New Seran, or Bilming's size. Perhaps not in cities but of the big four Cosmere worlds Scadrial has the lowest population, while Roshar has the second highest and is close to first. Spoiler wackyHair What's the population of the shardworld's we've seen so far (even in very general terms, like one's much bigger than the others or something)? Brandon Sanderson Scadrial is certainly the least populated of the major shard worlds. Then Nalthis, I'd guess, followed by Roshar, and finally Sel--which likely has the largest population. I would have to look closely to see which is bigger between those last two. Phantine Does a population of about 100 million during The Final Empire (with 1-2 million in Luthadel), and around 15 million during Alloy of Law (with about 5 million in Elendel) seem right? Brandon Sanderson Have to RAFO this for now, for reasons I can't explain without giving spoilers. Phantine How about as far as Elend/Wax knows, at the beginning of their respective series? Brandon Sanderson Then those numbers, if they're off, are at least close. faragorn Interesting that Sel has such a large population, given that the actual numbers of soldiers shown seem to be quite small. Brandon Sanderson Let's just say that Opelon has an inflated opinion of its own size in relation to the rest of the world. Footnote: The RAFO about the Scadrian population may be due to the existence of the Southerners, which had not been revealed as of this time. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/100/#e3466           2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Another thing that's pretty experimental/theoretical is that Scadrial should have some key technologies at this point. Maybe heavier-than-air is a bit of a stretch at this point, but looking at our own history radio and lighter-than-air are significantly enough to, sequentially, coordinate large navies and armies They do have radio now, which is a huge step up for them, but they still have some issues. The first is that orders given on Scadrial would take too long to reach Roshar. The second is that(if Roshar learns enough) it could be possible for Lightweavers and Truthwatchers to receive the transmission. The third is that Roshar has FTL communication, so they can communicate much faster and at greater distances than Scadrial can. Spoiler Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased) Rosharans already have an ansible. (reported by Kurkistan) Spanreeds are, basically, evidence that FTL is possible in the Cosmere. It's not the only example too. (reported by Blightsong) Footnote: Heavily paraphrased, aggregated from multiple comments. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/93/#e2701     2 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: I think your point about the air force is kinda valid. Windrunners are valuable, but they can be blindsided and are at a range disadvantage against protecting lurchers/coinshots, especially ones with duraluminum. Duralumin maybe, but otherwise no, as they effectively have the as much range as they are willing to spend Stormlight for. And with reverse lashings they can divert incoming attacks. 3 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: I also think that Kandra meatbags in all aspects of the war will negate or at least weaken Radiant advantages. On this, however, I'm very curious in hearing (well, reading) everyone's thoughts. Division should be the same as fire to them, and shardblades will kill them all the same. 3 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: And the last point, one that might not really be valid, is that Scadrial will have an easier time finding allies in the event of an unusually long war. Cultivation focuses on Roshar, Odium is Cosmere-wide hated, and, as Dalinar and Kaladin are so fond of saying, Honor is dead. Meanwhile, Harmony has tried multiple times to establish contact throughout the Cosmere. Does this count? Yes? No? Kinda? It does, but it's irrelevant? Anyway, all of these are really interesting arguments from y'all. I think you're right on this one, that Scadrial will have more allies when the actual battle comes, however I think that would be both too speculative and beyond the initial premise to be easily debated here, though once we get confirmed interplanetary allies that would be an interesting twist to the discussion. Would anyone else be interested in that? 3 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: Wait, one thing I missed, trying to calculate the output of Harmonium is going to be tough because we don't have an accurate control or a varied data set. Brandon described it as Super-cesium. When Cesium reacts with water it releases 276 j/m if I remember correctly. So multiply that by 1.5-2 and we should be pretty close. 3 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: P.P.S I'm sorry if some of my connections in that last paragraph are a little hard to follow, I tend to rave a bit and have some trouble expressing how I think things link. Please let me know if something doesn't make sense. Hey don't worry about it. I'd prefer to have a long post than none at all 3 hours ago, Flaming Coinshot said: troop transportation. Airships like the warship and battleships as well as railways can move larger quantities of troops longer distances faster than the Rosharans can, There aren't any railways in the CR, and airships are too big to fit in the perpendicularities. meanwhile Oathgates, and Bondsmith/Elsecaller portals can bypass the CR entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alder24 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 They both would be unbeatable on their home ground. Mainly to the one thing - supplies. There is just no possilbe way for both of them to reliably supply their army on the other planet with only few perpendicularity to use and very, very, very long, and troublesome lines of supply. IF Rosharians manage to land on Scadiral then artillery and gunfire would alone pound them into nothingness - not to mention using coinshoters on all of that metal equipment. They won't be able to gain big enough ground and resupply losses quick enough to even stand a chance. Radients require Stormlight to work which for now is impossible to take out of Roshar - Radients would be useless on Scadiral. They would fail in conventional warfare with enemy far superior tehnologic supported by allomancers and feruchemists. Scadirals on the other hand would not be able to fully conquer even Roshar's CR because of Radients. They would be easly outmanoeuvred by Roharians with multiple access points to CR (Oathgates), and the Sprens would be a force to deal with first. But then again if they gain some ground in PR, supplying army through one perpendicularity/oathgate would be too big of an chokepoint, constantly harassed from flanks in CR by Radients with hard ground in PR to defend against numerically superior force with Radients having Fullborn-Tanks-like powers.  But Scadirals have new bombs in their arsenal. Harmonium-Trellium (H-T) bomb is ridiculously overpowered - it was said that if that bomb exploded between Elendel and Bilming, both of them would be destroyd. They are almost 100 miles apart on the map (160km) so that's blast radius of little less than 80 km capable of leveling buildings. BIGGER than the Tsar Bomb that had power of 50MT, which was the most powerfull bomb ever made! With 50MT that radius when buildings are mostly leveled is around 17km. It is just ridiculously more powerful. It would kill everyone, regardless of healing within dozens of kilometers radius. Yet even with that they would not be able to make them in such numbers to make difference as they simply don't have enough Trellium. So maybe they could afford one smaller bomb made from all of Trellium spikes and leftover Set's Trellium. Still bigger than Tsar Bomb probably. Regullar Harmonium bombs would be much more common, much smaller in destructive power with biggest having "just" few kilometers of building-leveling power (if even the one set by Wayne was that powerful, I would say no). Yet they can only just now make some small rockets with small payload, which is technology still not fully understanded on Scadrial yet. So not really helpfull if they cannot deliver that bombs from far away. I was using https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ to see the "Moderate blast damage radius" on which I assume power of H-T bomb, with the setting of surface burst. They don't go more than 100MT but for our bomb it is much more than 100MT. And that assuming that blast of H-T bomb would destroy most buildings from both cities with pressure blast, as it was predicted in the book.  Either way, logistic and supply wound be the end of any planetary invasion in the matters of days/weeks. That's why Kelsier insisted on developing other means of interplanetary travel, independent from CR. Without that and ability to take Stromlight out of Roshar, there is no way for any kind of reasonable invasion by both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Coinshot Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 hours ago, Frustration said: There aren't any railways in the CR, and airships are too big to fit in the perpendicularities. meanwhile Oathgates, and Bondsmith/Elsecaller portals can bypass the CR entirely. I think that thinking of everything in terms of transport as "using the Perpendicularities" or Elsecalling. Railways are *relatively* easy to lay down, and airships are effective methods of transport. Actually, can someone get size estimates for the South Scadrian warships? Oathgates don't go to Scadrial. Also, sorry for my density, but what's CR? And the last one, portals are effective but they require a lot of Stormlight, and they're flashy. Guns-an invention that is limited to Scadrial and also vital-will be useful. For that matter, so will shrapnel and incindenary grenades, Allomantic grenades, and machine guns. Bullets are considered able to break Shardplate, especially ones delivered with the consistency and velocity of machine gun-fired bullets. As for "unbeatable on home ground," I think that Roshar has an advantage with the Radiants and Oathgates, but there's something we're missing: Fullborn. Irregardless of how you get them, they're possible, and unfairly powerful. A single Fullborn can take on any 5th Ideal Radiant with relative ease. By compounding Steel and healing Gold, one can run at unthinkable speeds, especially with the occasional steeljump. It's a power that's very, very hard to get pinned down in the first place. It's a tank that can move faster than anything in the Cosmere besides light, and it has high agility, survivability, intelligence, damage output, and everything else. Think about it. A Fullborn can blend into a city with Aluminum and Duralumin, hide in the wilderness with steel, tin, and bendalloy, and can survive any scrap with a combination of Chromium, Pewter, TIn, Zinc, Steel, and Iron. Oh-and they can store breath, surges and-most importantly-create new reserves all with Nicrosil. I move that we ban Fullborn, or they just render the argument useless. Of course, I may be overestimating the power of a Fullborn again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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